Iran War 2026

[GrantDawg]

Figured I'd start a new thread and take the discussion out of the Trump politics thread.

Defense officials are saying the US has lost three Reper drones so far in the war. These are about $30 million each, but the US has about 300. Two were shot down over Iran and one was taken down by Qatar.

[flere-imsaho]

Could feed a lot of kids with $30M.

[Bobble]

Could feed a lot of kids with $30M.

Terrible idea. We feed those kids, they pay attention in school, and they learn critical thinking and then where are we?!? :banghead:

[NobodyHere]

I thought this was interesting

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/BWR0nQ-S4yk?si=VpfubioJUvwT8mqK" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>

[RainMaker]

War costing $1b a day.

[JPhillips]

We spend a trillion on defense and there's no money to bomb Iran?

[RainMaker]

People don't realize how insanely expensive those interceptors are.

[Danny]

I'm glad all those DOGE cuts were able to pay for a couple hours of war in Iran

[GrantDawg]

What's good for the goose....
Russia gave Iran information that could help strikes on US military | AP News (https://apnews.com/article/trump-iran-russia-intelligence-35afae34198408d670941f971d383378?link_source=ta_bluesky_link&taid=69ab28c310ec71000163b0c3&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=social&utm_source=bluesky)

[RainMaker]

Obviously it is tough to get information out of the war but it sure seems like Iran destroyed the Bahrain base which is kind of insane. The radars in Qatar are gone which the air defense systems rely on.

None of these threaten the United States but are insanely expensive to fix. Those radars cost billions and take nearly a decade to build. They require tons of gallium which I don't think anyone really makes but China. That base in Bahrain I can't even imagine the costs to fix up. The satellite images make it look like a total loss.

This is why military experts said how stupid a war would be. Even Bush understood that. Sure you can blow up elementary schools and cause chaos in Iran, but they can make it incredibly expensive for the country and set the military back a decade in the region. Not to mention how pissed off the Arab states must be that the U.S. didn't follow through on their deal to protect them.

[GrantDawg]

The info real is hard to decipher. There is so much poor bs out there from both sides that it makes wading through the muck to find anything solid difficult. There is such a huge number of bots and ai creations out there and they just keep posting the same fake reports over and over. Annoying AF.
I just don't see how a "victory" is going to occur here. Iran using financial targeting was a risk because it hurts China as bad if not more than the US, but it seems to be paying off. China seems to be willing to hunker down for the damage as long it costs the US military stores and reputation.
I still think the next phase will be "boots on the ground" but something well short of invasion. Special forces actions aimed at hurting the regime and degrading the nuclear and weapon making facilities. Any invasion will be by someone other than the US or Israel, and even then it will be biters into the country not a full on occupying invasion.
The most likely outcome is still for Trump to find someway to paint some small acquiescence into a "victory."

[RainMaker]

I don't see how this is anything but a win for China. The U.S burns another trillion on the Middle East for Israel's religious wars while they continue to invest internally. Been the story of the past few decades and the results are showing.

[GrantDawg]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-privately-shown-serious-interest-us-ground-troops-iran-rcna262176

[RainMaker]

Has anyone provided him with a map of Iran?

[Lathum]

Has anyone provided him with a map of Iran?

Zero chance he could pic out Iran on a map and if you told him it would be exponentially worse than Vietnam his hubris would never allow him to accept it.

We all knew he would be an epic disaster but this has the potential to exceed anything we thought.

[GrantDawg]

Has anyone provided him with a map of Iran?

Read the article. He is discussing exactly what I was guessing. Small special forces actions, not a full scale invasion.

[miami_fan]

IMO "Victory" has already been achieved. The administration wants the world to know that it will not hesitate to use the military to at the drop of a hat. To what end? It does not matter. I think they believe that just putting it out there that at any point for any reason large or small, military action can be taken can have long term benefits for the U.S.

[RainMaker]

Reports are 4 of the THADD systems have been destroyed by Iran. We only have 8. Will be interesting if they move one from somewhere else.

[flere-imsaho]

It's one thing to funnel trillions into the MIC. It's another thing, entirely, to funnel trillions into the MIC and find out the high-priced stuff doesn't even work.

[JPhillips]

The seal has been broken on destroying desalination plants. That could have huge impacts throughout the Middle East.

[Lathum]

Does anyone actually believe we’ve only lost 6 service members?

[flere-imsaho]

NOPE

[GrantDawg]

More than 6? Probably. There could be a few deaths being covered up in areas that aren't close to civilians and well covered by press. Huge numbers? No. If there were huge numbers of deaths from attacks over Iran, or large number of soldiers captured, there would pictures and videos everywhere. As it is of they shoot down a drone there are bunches of pictures. You don't think they would be parading capturef soldiers in front of cameras or showing dead soldiers if they could?

[RainMaker]

Another slip of the tongue.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Hegseth: &quot;To our steadfast partner, Israel. Your mission is being executed with unmatched skill and iron determination.&quot; <a href="https://t.co/KMG2uWz6KI">pic.twitter.com/KMG2uWz6KI</a></p>&mdash; unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) <a href="https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/2030403366342320307?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 7, 2026</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[RainMaker]

It would be really hard to cover up a lot of troop deaths. With that said, it isn't like the media is putting in much work to cover the war

[miami_fan]

1. I support Israel's right to exist and to defend itself against those who wish to make it extinct.

2. I also think Israel has been an oppressive present in the Middle East since its creation and quite likely have committed war crimes, crimes against humanity and other atrocities against its adversaries similar to those that we know were committed against Jewish people during the Holocaust. .

3. I have never felt as conflicted between holding those two opinions nor have i ever felt as uncomfortable with the bedfellows that share those opinions with me as I do at this point in time. I also have zero desire to prioritize one opinion over the other.

[RainMaker]

Does anyone actually believe we’ve only lost 6 service members?

Get ready for an uptick in "medical episodes" and "training accidents".
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The NYPD mourns the loss of Police Officer Sorffly Davius, who passed away yesterday as a result of a medical episode while deployed to Kuwait in support of Operation Epic Fury.<br><br>Officer Davius served in the 42nd Infantry Division in the U.S. Army National Guard and rose to the… <a href="https://t.co/AmPTClTHtG">pic.twitter.com/AmPTClTHtG</a></p>&mdash; NYPD NEWS (@NYPDnews) <a href="https://twitter.com/NYPDnews/status/2030448509682413968?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 8, 2026</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[Lathum]

Killed in action sounds way worse, considering we aren't at war...

[JPhillips]

Leavitt refusing to say that Trump won't institute a draft is a gigantic misstep. There won't be a draft as it won't pass Congress, but now the damage from there might be a draft adds to the weight of the anchors around Trump's neck

[miami_fan]

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/08/crude-oil-prices-today-iran-war.html

[flere-imsaho]

Let's watch Democratic politicians fail to capitalize on the huge "draft" favor Trump just gave them.

[HerRealName]

Let's watch Democratic politicians fail to capitalize on the huge "draft" favor Trump just gave them.

If he thinks it will help Israel, Schumer will support it.

[JPhillips]

Eric has to be pretty excited by the idea that if the old man dies the second son gets to take over.

[RainMaker]

Let's watch Democratic politicians fail to capitalize on the huge "draft" favor Trump just gave them.

They fully support this war.

[JPhillips]

Oil futures up to 114.

[Ghost Econ]

That's good, right?

[JPhillips]

If it's not, don't worry. Dow futures are down a 1000 so they balance out.

[JPhillips]

dola

Trump now talking about price caps on gas.

[flere-imsaho]

They fully support this war.

All Democrats? Show your work.

[albionmoonlight]

I'm not a fan of this administration. But I give them credit for not taking the draft off the table.

Too often, politicians promise that they will enact their plans and we will magically feel no pain whatsoever.

Invading a country of 90 million people is not painless. And credit to them for being straight about that.

[Atocep]

So far we know MAGA wasn't really against war, that they actually support pedophilia, and that they didn't care about grocery or gas prices. Almost like it's a cult that simply goes with whatever the cult leader says.

[Lathum]

If you are the son of the supreme leader, and you just saw how easily Israel took out your pops and his whole cabinet, would you really want the job considering Israel stated they would kill you if you took it.

[RainMaker]

I'm not a fan of this administration. But I give them credit for not taking the draft off the table.

Too often, politicians promise that they will enact their plans and we will magically feel no pain whatsoever.

Invading a country of 90 million people is not painless. And credit to them for being straight about that.

I really don't think they were putting it on the table. It sounds like just an incredibly dumb answer by Leavitt because she is incredibly dumb. Congress deals with the draft, not the President. That's all she had to say but her pea-brain doesn't know high school civics.

If you are the son of the supreme leader, and you just saw how easily Israel took out your pops and his whole cabinet, would you really want the job considering Israel stated they would kill you if you took it.

It was easy because he didn't try to hide. One of the most important tenets of being a Shia is sacrifice. If he cared about his life, he'd have been hiding in one of their mountain fortresses.

[DanGarion]

Could feed a lot of kids with $30M.

You seem to think they care about kids once they are born...

edit...
and not trans.

[flere-imsaho]

Kids aren't born trans, Dan, they're indoctrinated into it by the woke left.

[Atocep]

I really don't think they were putting it on the table. It sounds like just an incredibly dumb answer by Leavitt because she is incredibly dumb. Congress deals with the draft, not the President. That's all she had to say but her pea-brain doesn't know high school civics.


The people in this administration are absolutely terrified to say anything Trump may disagree with. This was a softball question and she panicked. All you had to say is "the president has no plans to reinstitute the draft. This is the fake news media creating hysteria and division in our country blah, blah, blah.". That's a safe answer for MAGA. Instead, she wasn't sure what Trump was considering so she just wouldn't answer.

[GrantDawg]

Figured I'd start a new thread and take the discussion out of the Trump politics thread.

Defense officials are saying the US has lost three Reper drones so far in the war. These are about $30 million each, but the US has about 300. Two were shot down over Iran and one was taken down by Qatar.


Up to 11 Reapers now. You want to know how I know they haven't shot down anything manned? There are pictures of everyone of these Reapers, and a couple of cruise missiles as well. You don't think they'd have pictures of planes pieces everywhere if they could?


The theory on why these Reapers keep getting hit beyond the number of sorties they have them flying: They think they are flying them low to sniff out enriched uranium. They have sensors that can detect it, but they have to fly much lower if the material is shielded.

[JPhillips]

Trump says the war is "very much complete" and he might take over the Strait of Hormuz.

Sure. Why the fuck not?

[flere-imsaho]

$20 says he renames it the "Strait of Israel".

Where's the "Board of Peace" in all this, btw? Asking for a friend.

[RainMaker]

Bomb a school, install a worse leader, leave. Mission accomplished.

[21C]

So no chance of winning the FIFA Peace Prize this year?

[JPhillips]

Trump says we could have captured the Iranian ship off Sri Lanka but it's more fun to sink it.

Are we the baddies?

[Lathum]

Trump says we could have captured the Iranian ship off Sri Lanka but it's more fun to sink it.

Are we the baddies?

That is totally psychotic, evil, and incredibly stupid.

Capturing it could have given us intel and info about their tech.

[RainMaker]

Trump says we could have captured the Iranian ship off Sri Lanka but it's more fun to sink it.

Are we the baddies?

Have been since WW2.

[JPhillips]

How many times will oil skyrocket, Trump say the war is over, oil crashes, then say the war will continue, starting the whole cycle again?

Each time, insiders make a fortune on the spikes/crashes.

[JPhillips]

Trump in a nutshell.

Q: You just suggested Iran got a Tomahawk and bombed its own elementary school. But you're the only person in your govt saying this. Even your defense secretary wouldn't say that. Why are you the only person saying this?

TRUMP: Because I just don't know enough about it. It's something I was told is under investigation.

[RainMaker]

When you are definitely winning.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">American satellite imagery company PlanetLabs, after consultations with the U.S. government, has announced an unprecedented 14-day delay to the release of imagery in the Middle East: <a href="https://t.co/ueegPnqcDy">pic.twitter.com/ueegPnqcDy</a></p>&mdash; The STRATCOM Bureau (@OSPSF) <a href="https://twitter.com/OSPSF/status/2031167672046800901?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 10, 2026</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[flere-imsaho]

Bomb a school, install a worse leader, leave. Mission accomplished.

Weaksauce. When Bush declared Mission Accomplished he had done the above and acquired oil rights for his Texas buddies.

[RainMaker]

Gotta move our defense systems out of Asia to protect Israel. Wait till we start sending ones we have here at home.

https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/southkorea/defense/20260310/us-moving-parts-of-thaad-anti-missile-system-from-s-korea-to-middle-east-report

[GrantDawg]

The death totals haven't changed, but here is the casualty numbers according to sources and somewhat confirmed by the White House. There have been 140 injured so far in action. Of that 140, 108 have returned to duty and 8 are considered critical.

[NobodyHere]

Weaksauce. When Bush declared Mission Accomplished he had done the above and acquired oil rights for his Texas buddies.

Are you saying this war isn't "Very Complete"?

[JPhillips]

Who made money when the Energy Sec. lied and said tankers were being escorted?

Who made money when he deleted the tweet and oil shot back up?

[JPhillips]

dola

The geniuses running things apparently sent the minesweepers back to the US at the end of January.

[Atocep]

dola

The geniuses running things apparently sent the minesweepers back to the US at the end of January.

Months ago we were also offered help by Ukraine on how to prepare for drone warfare, offered drone interceptors, and experts to help protect outposts and installations in the event of a war with Iran and the Trump administration blew them off and mocked them behind closed doors. We had to go back and ask for that help because we've struggled to counter Iranian Shaded drones.

[RainMaker]

dola

The geniuses running things apparently sent the minesweepers back to the US at the end of January.

If they actually mine the strait, we are all fucked.

[GrantDawg]

dola

The geniuses running things apparently sent the minesweepers back to the US at the end of January.

There are other ships that do that mission better than the forty year old wooden hull boats they retired. It is not like they don't have other vessels and drones that do mine hunting in the area.

[AlexB]

Who made money when the Energy Sec. lied and said tankers were being escorted?

Who made money when he deleted the tweet and oil shot back up?

<div class="tenor-gif-embed" data-postid="3967479948849700532" data-share-method="host" data-aspect-ratio="1.33333" data-width="100%"><a href="https://tenor.com/view/jheaton416-simpsons-stonecutters-we-do-steins-gif-3967479948849700532">Jheaton416 Simpsons GIF</a>from <a href="https://tenor.com/search/jheaton416-gifs">Jheaton416 GIFs</a></div> <script type="text/javascript" async src="https://tenor.com/embed.js"></script>

[JPhillips]

By 2:10 PM ET today, the S&P 500, $SPY, $675 strike calls had fallen to a low of $0.02 per contract, effectively worthless.

Then, at 3:20 PM ET, President Trump said the Iran war is "very complete," sending the S&P 500 soaring.

By 3:30 PM ET, 10 minutes later, these same calls were trading at $4.95 per contract, up +24,650%.

In other words, $1,000 invested in these calls at 2:10 PM ET was worth $247,500 just 80 minutes later.

Have to assume now that all of this is purposeful and criminal.

[JPhillips]

dola

Admin says first two days cost 5.6 billion.

But there's no money for healthcare.

[GrantDawg]

It seems the US had no real plan on how to handle the Strait of Hormuz. They believed any disruption would be temporary, and that after decapitating the Iranian government, the war would move swiftly to an end. Of course that means they ignored every actual expert on the area. This is starting to crash out bad.

[NobodyHere]

dola

Admin says first two days cost 5.6 billion.

But there's no money for healthcare.

We spent $2,000,000,000,000 on Medicare and Medicaid in 2024.

[flere-imsaho]

Say it with me: quagmire.

[flere-imsaho]

dola

Admin says first two days cost 5.6 billion.

But there's no money for healthcare.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/military-spending-crab-lobster-steak-hegseth-ice-cream-b2935978.html

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s Pentagon apparently isn’t feeling the same affordability struggles as many average Americans, as he approved spending more than $93 billion in September, including on luxury food items and iPads.

A new analysis published by government watchdog Open the Books found that in September — the end of the 2025 fiscal year — Hegseth reportedly burned through cash, including spending $9 million on crab and lobster dinners.

Also 15.1M on ribeyes, a $100,000 piano for the home of the Air Force Chief of Staff, 5.3M on Apple devices, etc....

Guess we should have had DOGE stick around, eh?

[NobodyHere]

Say it with me: quagmire.

Giggity

[DanGarion]

So no chance of winning the FIFA Peace Prize this year?

Why would he want that? He will get the first ever Board of Peace Peace Prize.

[GrantDawg]

Want to know why El Paso airport was shut down for the military drone laser test? I'm starting to see a thread...
https://abcnews.com/US/fbi-warns-iran-aspired-attack-california-drones-retaliation/story?id=130973820

[Lathum]

Why would they attack California? They hate Trump as much as Iran does.

[GrantDawg]

Easier target to get to.

[Lathum]

If Iran attacked California trump legit wouldn’t care.

[GrantDawg]

Two oil tankers are burning off the coast of Iraq. Iran claims they were hit by Iranian boats filled with explosives.

[JPhillips]

If Iran attacked California trump legit wouldn’t care.

People die in wars.

[Atocep]

Trump is prepping his base to turn on Hegseth, Rubio, Witkoff, and Kushner for the war if really turns really bad. He said today that he decided to attack based on what they were telling him.

[JPhillips]

Two oil tankers are burning off the coast of Iraq. Iran claims they were hit by Iranian boats filled with explosives.

No. Trump said the Straits are in great shape.

[Lathum]

Trump is prepping his base to turn on Hegseth, Rubio, Witkoff, and Kushner for the war if really turns really bad. He said today that he decided to attack based on what they were telling him.

I will truly never understand how 10 years in to this experiment how people don't understand he will eventually throw you under the bus and ruin you.

[Lathum]

Trump is prepping his base to turn on Hegseth, Rubio, Witkoff, and Kushner for the war if really turns really bad. He said today that he decided to attack based on what they were telling him.

I will truly never understand how 10 years in to this experiment how people don't understand he will eventually throw you under the bus and ruin you.

[GrantDawg]

No. Trump said the Straits are in great shape.

Worse. This is actually 300 miles from the Straight.

[JPhillips]

So if you believe Trump you have to believe that we know where all the Iranian sleeper agents are but we're just choosing not to do anything about them.

[albionmoonlight]

Trump is prepping his base to turn on Hegseth, Rubio, Witkoff, and Kushner for the war if really turns really bad. He said today that he decided to attack based on what they were telling him.

I'm not a Trump fan, but isn't he probably right?

He's got dementia, and his advisors are controlling the information he sees and does not see.

[NobodyHere]

The billionaire ‘buccaneer’ braving the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.ft.com/content/dd3444c7-b8fa-4f6c-9451-ffb9e2525cd9)

Don't worry guys, as long as we have billionaires brave enough to risk the lives of their own employees for profit we'll be fine.

[dubb93]

Not be outdone by mysterious deaths, we now have an aircraft carrier allegedly setting itself on fire.

[Atocep]

I'm not a Trump fan, but isn't he probably right?

He's got dementia, and his advisors are controlling the information he sees and does not see.

He is right, but a doing an interview and naming names of those that talked him into going to war is strange, although not within the top 1,000 strange things just from this 2nd administration l. The only reason he did that was so he can deflect blame in the future.

[GrantDawg]

Looks like a refill tanker went down over Iraq as well as another plane. Probable collision.

Edit: Only the tanker went down. The other plane landed safely.

[GrantDawg]

Even more info, the other plane was a tanker. Wasn't expecting that. Two tankers bumping each other is crazy.

[RainMaker]

The rumors are it was a 358 that hit it (maybe a 359 since tankers fly pretty high). They're all over Iraq. Tankers don't have flares from what I remember. They are always sitting ducks and it was a matter of time. Current leadership just never planned this shit out.

Just remember that we have a long history of denying how our planes get shot down dating back to Vietnam. Two tankers colliding would be even less likely than the "Ghost of Kuwait" wiping out 3 F-15Es.

[flere-imsaho]

Current leadership just never planned this shit out.

These guys are starting to make Donald "You go to war with the army you have" Rumsfeld look like a paragon of forward planning.

[flere-imsaho]

Operation Epstein Fury is going great.

[dubb93]

So there is no way to accomplish our goals here without boots on the ground, right? Bombing them into the smithereens didn't seem to accomplish anything besides getting the world's oil and natural gas supply halted and somehow getting an even worse leader in charge. This is turning into a disaster.

[GrantDawg]

The rumors are it was a 358 that hit it (maybe a 359 since tankers fly pretty high). They're all over Iraq. Tankers don't have flares from what I remember. They are always sitting ducks and it was a matter of time. Current leadership just never planned this shit out.

Just remember that we have a long history of denying how our planes get shot down dating back to Vietnam. Two tankers colliding would be even less likely than the "Ghost of Kuwait" wiping out 3 F-15Es.

It is actually not at all and very common. These planes do fuel swaps, and that what this looks to have been. One landed with the damage from the contact but the other couldn't. Reading stories of crews that fly these planes about the many near misses they have all had just like this. And there is literal video of the "Ghost of Kuwait."

[RainMaker]

Worth noting that CBS initially reported them as being "hit" before deleting the story. Odd for a state media outlet to get out in front with an error like that.

And yeah, the Kuwait stuff could have went down that way. Good chance Hegseth thought IFF was too DEI or something.

[GrantDawg]

There are pictures of the plane that made it back. Ten feet or so of the tailfin was sheared off. The crew guys commenting in it talk about how tough these planes are.

[flere-imsaho]

So there is no way to accomplish our goals here without boots on the ground, right?

What's the goal? If Trump wants an unambiguous victory over Iran, then boots on the ground and an occupation that will make Afghanistan & Vietnam look like Sunday picnics will be required, and it will outlast him even if he lives to 99.

If Trump wants everybody in Iran dead, we could nuke them, but things certainly wouldn't go back to normal after that.

If Trump wants the economic damage to the U.S. (and his precious stock market & oil prices) back to normal, then he could declare victory, pull out, and move on to his next stupidity. But then he'd have to deal with everyone saying how it was the dumbest thing ever. But maybe that's why he's setting up others to be the fall guys here.

So, there's a bunch of options, but they all kind of suck.

This is turning into a disaster.

Just like anyone could have predicted before it happened.

[Ghost Econ]

We had $250k from our house sale just sitting in a savings account. We had started working with a financial planner and at the end of last month transferred the money to a new Vanguard account.

Great timing.

[Ghost Econ]

17 days ago at the State of the Union, Trump said gas was under $2. So if you believe his original numbers, he's actually made it rise over $1 in just under 400 hours.

It's gone from how great he has been for gas prices to no one cares in less time than people put into Baldur's Gate.

[JPhillips]

Hard to argue.

Hegseth: “The only thing prohibiting transit in [Hormuz] right now is Iran shooting at shipping.”

“It is open for transit should Iran not do that”

[RainMaker]

I mentioned in the other thread that FT is reporting that the Treasury is the one selling oil futures to keep the price down which is completely insane.

[kingfc22]

Hard to argue.

Hegseth channeling his inner Magic Johnson

[RainMaker]

Another gem from his presser.


“The sooner David Ellison takes over [CNN], the better.”

[JPhillips]

The announcement about the Marine unit is either a bluff or the beginning of something much larger. A 2500 person unit available for combat a couple of weeks from now isn't enough to do much of anything.

[JPhillips]

Another gem from his presser.

He's pissed that CNN said the war intensifies when he said attacks intensify just a couple of days ago.

But he probably missed that because he was focused on woke war colleges and unflattering pictures.

[RainMaker]

Estimates are now up to $1.9 billion a day for this war. Saw that if it lasted an entire year, you could eliminate income tax for everything under $150k for the same amount.

[GrantDawg]

I mentioned in the other thread that FT is reporting that the Treasury is the one selling oil futures to keep the price down which is completely insane.


That would explain the call from the President that the Treasure Secretary took while he was being interviewed by SkyNews, and when he returned he was white as a sheet.

[GrantDawg]

I know I am a child, but every time I see the word "littora" I think "Dirty!".

[GrantDawg]

The announcement about the Marine unit is either a bluff or the beginning of something much larger. A 2500 person unit available for combat a couple of weeks from now isn't enough to do much of anything.


I don't think it a bluff. There are some benefits outside of just the boots that this unit can provide. They have some very high end radar systems along with a large contingent of F-35B's. Most likely though, they are looking at invading Kharg Island. It is the port that 90% of all Iran oil flows through. The idea has been floated of a joint attack by US and gulf states to seize control of the island. It would definitely hurt Iran economically, but it would definitely be paid for in blood. Also, those landing craft would have to go the the straight to get there, which is very high risk.

[JPhillips]

Perhaps. I expect Iran has plenty of time to rig the island with explosives if they haven't done that already. Pretty risky.

[flere-imsaho]

"Some of you will have to die." - Donald Trump.

[RainMaker]

They don't really have a choice at this point but to put boots on the ground. Iran doesn't have any incentive to end this. Israel is loving this as they have shifted their ethnic cleansing to Lebanon. Keeping the Strait closed helps Iran and their allies.

[GrantDawg]

5 US tankers have taken damage from attacks on the ground in Saudi Arabia. They are all repairable, but it is still a costly hit.

[SirFozzie]

@donmoyn.bsky.social on Bluesky (https://bsky.app/profile/donmoyn.bsky.social/post/3mgwx2ezc6224)

The Pentagon is so desperate to not be ripped to shreds in press conferences, this is the actual order of "reporters" they called on from a recent press conference:

One American News, Epoch Times, Real America's Voice, Lindell TV

[Thomkal]

all very credible :(

[dubb93]

When I want my news I go straight to the source at Lindell TV.

[GrantDawg]

5 US tankers have taken damage from attacks on the ground in Saudi Arabia. They are all repairable, but it is still a costly hit.


Airforce tankers. I just realized that was unclear.

[NobodyHere]

When I want my news I go straight to the source at Lindell TV.

If they don't have a show called "Pillow Talk" I'll be greatly disappointed.

[JPhillips]

Trump has good and bad news for us.

Good: We've destroyed 100% of Iran's military

Bad: They still have mines, drones, and missiles to shut down the Strait of Hormuz

[JPhillips]

Also,

"Do not attempt to come to the Embassy in Baghdad or the Consulate General in Erbil due to the ongoing risk of rockets, drones, and mortars in Iraqi airspace.”

[JPhillips]

double dola

If the Iranians really let anyone other than Israel nd the US through the strait, that's going to really help with global oil prices.

[GrantDawg]

double dola

If the Iranians really let anyone other than Israel nd the US through the strait, that's going to really help with global oil prices.

I want to know what that means. Oil heading to the US? Because the US gets very little oil from Gulf. American companies hwve huge interest in the Gulf, though. Are they saying any oil that comes from US companies?

[RainMaker]

I want to know what that means. Oil heading to the US? Because the US gets very little oil from Gulf. American companies hwve huge interest in the Gulf, though. Are they saying any oil that comes from US companies?

Oil traded in yuan and not the dollar is the nightmare scenario which Iran might just make happen. That's the goal.

Iran can't win militarily but they seem to understand that the U.S. military operates to protect capital and nothing more. That is how you target them.

[dubb93]

Maybe Trump can rely on his fellow Board of Peace members to send their mighty navy ships to the Strait of Hormuz since he's treated our traditional allies so badly that they are refusing to offer assistance.

[RainMaker]

He keeps forgetting about a country that is our closest ally when discussing sending ships.

[albionmoonlight]

Iran has had asshole leadership that pretty much the entire world has hated for decades.

The reason that they hadn't already been overthrown is because by geographic accident, they control the most economically important waterway in the world. If attacking Iran were easy, it would have already happened.

The problem with this administration isn't that they're dumb. Lots of administrations are dumb. The problem is that they (and their associates) think that everyone else is dumb.

They think that no one's attacked Iran because no one was smart enough to think of it.

They think that no one has cut government waste because no one thought to try to do it.

They think that we aren't on Mars yet because no one had tried to go.

They think that the border is "open" because no one has thought about closing it.

Basically, they think that the world is a simple place and they are the only people smart enough to see it. Almost every failing of this administration (and its associates) flows from that one belief.

[GrantDawg]

So true. It is a administration of your drunk uncle sitting at the table saying how easy everything is to fix when he really doesn't even fully understand the problem.

[Passacaglia]

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/K3Pd_XRwf_Y?si=meCRR2_5ZuBAfmlY" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>

[JPhillips]

We're begging other countries for minesweepers and they're saying no.

[Mota]

He keeps forgetting about a country that is our closest ally when discussing sending ships.

He does not have allies. He has resource extraction sources. That's all. Maybe in the next administration, alliances can be recovered. Maybe.

[Lathum]

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/K3Pd_XRwf_Y?si=meCRR2_5ZuBAfmlY" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>

One of the greatest albums of all time.

Video is an all time favorite.

[Lathum]

Maybe in the next administration, alliances can be recovered. Maybe.

Zero chance.

It isn't about trump, he is just the end result.

It is about a country with an electorate that has the capacity to elect Trump, see what a nightmare is was, the elect him again 4 years later because eggs were expensive and Biden fell off his bike.

What we as a country have done in 15 months will take generations to rebuild trust, if we ever do. Trump will be synonymous with America for decades. 80 years after the Nazis I still associate Germany with them as I suspect many others do as well.

We elected him and we are getting exactly what we deserve.

[Lathum]

Maybe in the next administration, alliances can be recovered. Maybe.

Zero chance.

It isn't about trump, he is just the end result.

It is about a country with an electorate that has the capacity to elect Trump, see what a nightmare is was, the elect him again 4 years later because eggs were expensive and Biden fell off his bike.

What we as a country have done in 15 months will take generations to rebuild trust, if we ever do. Trump will be synonymous with America for decades. 80 years after the Nazis I still associate Germany with them as I suspect many others do as well.

We elected him and we are getting exactly what we deserve.

[Lathum]

Iran has had asshole leadership that pretty much the entire world has hated for decades.

The reason that they hadn't already been overthrown is because by geographic accident, they control the most economically important waterway in the world. If attacking Iran were easy, it would have already happened.

The problem with this administration isn't that they're dumb. Lots of administrations are dumb. The problem is that they (and their associates) think that everyone else is dumb.

They think that no one's attacked Iran because no one was smart enough to think of it.

They think that no one has cut government waste because no one thought to try to do it.

They think that we aren't on Mars yet because no one had tried to go.

They think that the border is "open" because no one has thought about closing it.

Basically, they think that the world is a simple place and they are the only people smart enough to see it. Almost every failing of this administration (and its associates) flows from that one belief.

This is all true and you have to throw in a healthy dose of machismo. These guys want to cosplay as tough guys, WAR FIGHTERS!! They think they are vikings but they are far too stupid to consider the ramifications of their actions.

They are 9 year olds who got access to their dads gun and now they want to show everyone what a badass they are,

[RainMaker]

because eggs were expensive and Biden fell off his bike.

Not understanding why Trump was elected is a problem with the opposition side of the electorate. Went a bit beyond falling off his bike. High inflation, massacring a few hundred thousands innocent people, and not being able to form a coherent sentence in a debate had a bit more to do with it.

People like Trump gain power when leaders repeatedly fail at providing for the needs of the public. Just about every authoritarian in history can be traced back to this.

[MIJB#19]

Maybe Trump can rely on his fellow Board of Peace members to send their mighty navy ships to the Strait of Hormuz since he's treated our traditional allies so badly that they are refusing to offer assistance.Trump's administration still hasn't down their homework and read up on the 9/11 aftermath on how Bush jr persuaded NATO to go to war. All that so shortly after Trump got basically spoon fed the how-to get NATO on board by Mark Rutte.

[Lathum]

Not understanding why Trump was elected is a problem with the opposition side of the electorate. Went a bit beyond falling off his bike. High inflation, massacring a few hundred thousands innocent people, and not being able to form a coherent sentence in a debate had a bit more to do with it.

People like Trump gain power when leaders repeatedly fail at providing for the needs of the public. Just about every authoritarian in history can be traced back to this.

You give the average voter entirely too much credit.

I know you obsess about Israel and Gaza but I can tell you the economy is a way bigger issue for people. According to a Gallup poll Israel and Gaza were the 15th most important to voters. Not to mention how many Americans died because of Trump mishandling Covid.

Not to mention Trumps mishandling of covid gave us that inflation and lets not act like Trump is some wordsmith.

Trump completely failed the public yet they put him back in power.

[RainMaker]

You give the average voter entirely too much credit.

I know you obsess about Israel and Gaza but I can tell you the economy is a way bigger issue for people. According to a Gallup poll Israel and Gaza were the 15th most important to voters. Not to mention how many Americans died because of Trump mishandling Covid.

Not to mention Trumps mishandling of covid gave us that inflation and lets not act like Trump is some wordsmith.

Trump completely failed the public yet they put him back in power.

Inflation was through the roof under Biden and the response from Democrats was "the economy is great!". We all saw them lie to our faces about Biden's mental condition. And the DNC themselves just had a report on the election that showed they lost considerable support over Gaza (https://www.axios.com/2026/02/22/dnc-2024-autopsy-harris-gaza).

But it goes deeper than that. This was about what the Democrats stood for in an election. They spent years screaming about the rise of fascism and threats to democracy. They proceeded to take power and support fascism and threats to democracy around the world. They proceeded to ignore threats of fascism here in this country. So if people see you're full of shit on those issues, why would they think you're serious about anything else?

At some point you have to offer something to the public besides "orange man bad". Especially when the party didn't really treat him as bad once Biden got elected.

[Lathum]

Weird. I don't recall Biden being on the ballot.

They chose someone who had a disastrous first term and left a mess for his predecessor over someone who was AG of the biggest state, a senator, and a VP.

Everything you are claiming about Biden doing Trump did in his first term and worse. Then he told us for 4 years what he was going to do and they voted him in anyway.

You seriously don't think the rest of the world looks at that and says WTF?

[JPhillips]

Everything is always the fault of the Dems. Trump won because a lot of people liked that he was going to hurt the right people. Now some of them are upset because he's hurting the wrong people.

Even in a Trump v Obama race Trump would clear 40%. Lots of Americans want what he sells.

[GrantDawg]

Rainmaker is not completely wrong on the fact Dems try to sell messages that their actions do not show they truly believe. If they truly believed in the severe threat to Democracy that Trump posed, they would have completely sold out on getting voting rights laws in place after 2020 like Trump is doing wirh the SAVE act now. Instead they shrugged and said "Joe Manchin said no" and let it go. If they truly believed what Trump did in his first term was criminal, they would have aggressively prosecuted him the second he was out of office. Instead they drug their feet until it was close to election time.
Everything is not all the Dems fault, but they have been terrible at fighting the real danger we face. They are too interested in funding their campaigns and insider trading on the knowledge they get than actually defending Democracy.

[JPhillips]

I don't think you can lump everyone into they. There are plenty of Dems willing to do more right now, but not enough. I think and have thought that leadership is feckless and there's very little understanding of what Dems will do with power if they get it.

But that's a far cry from Dems and GOPers are the same. I think Biden's position on Gaza was wrong, but I also think that's way better than Gaza, Venezuela, Iran, Cuba, and who knows what next. A plague on both of their houses just empowers the worst elements of the GOP.

[RainMaker]

Weird. I don't recall Biden being on the ballot.


No, he had to bow out after the party lied about his mental condition for years and put a woman on the ballot who was less popular than Andrew Yang.

[RainMaker]

Rainmaker is not completely wrong on the fact Dems try to sell messages that their actions do not show they truly believe. If they truly believed in the severe threat to Democracy that Trump posed, they would have completely sold out on getting voting rights laws in place after 2020 like Trump is doing wirh the SAVE act now. Instead they shrugged and said "Joe Manchin said no" and let it go. If they truly believed what Trump did in his first term was criminal, they would have aggressively prosecuted him the second he was out of office. Instead they drug their feet until it was close to election time.
Everything is not all the Dems fault, but they have been terrible at fighting the real danger we face. They are too interested in funding their campaigns and insider trading on the knowledge they get than actually defending Democracy.

He was literally on an audio recording breaking the law. They stormed the capitol at his discretion. If they gave a shit about democracy and stemming the tide of fascism, they'd have arrested him for any of his numerous crimes like South Korea and Brazil did to their criminal leaders. At some point, the lack of action results in people realizing you don't take any of those statements seriously.

Even when Trump won again they caved the second they got some leverage in the government shutdown. Democratic Governors and Mayors did jack shit as their citizens were getting gunned down in broad daylight.

Yeah, a certain percent of the country will vote for the Republican no matter what they do. A certain percent of the country will vote Democrat no matter what they do. Your party is responsible for winning over the rest.

[GrantDawg]

I don't think you can lump everyone into they. There are plenty of Dems willing to do more right now, but not enough. I think and have thought that leadership is feckless and there's very little understanding of what Dems will do with power if they get it.

But that's a far cry from Dems and GOPers are the same. I think Biden's position on Gaza was wrong, but I also think that's way better than Gaza, Venezuela, Iran, Cuba, and who knows what next. A plague on both of their houses just empowers the worst elements of the GOP.


I didn't lump everyone into "they", but the what the leadership did or did not do. It is a leadership problem and it doesn't seem to be getting solved.

[Passacaglia]

One of the greatest albums of all time.

Video is an all time favorite.

YES! Vivid memories of sophomore year in college playing it while trying to get homework done, and thinking "okay I need to listen to this again, right now" as soon as it was done. Ben Folds solo was never as good.

I hadn't seen the video before, but seeing that MTV font really took me back.

[jcard]

They chose someone who had a disastrous first term and left a mess for his predecessor…


I think I’m going to need a timeline for this one… (kidding, I know what you meant)

[JPhillips]

GOPers seem to be settling on the idea that Marines on Kharg Island wouldn't be boots on the ground because, technically, an island isn't ground.

[RainMaker]

GOPers seem to be settling on the idea that Marines on Kharg Island wouldn't be boots on the ground because, technically, an island isn't ground.

I don't understand how that would work. You'd be under consistent fire and the casualties would be immense. They'll just rain drones down on it out of pickup trucks from the mainland. There are no real defensive structures to protect troops. And even getting to it would be incredibly difficult.

[GrantDawg]

And the single Marine unit would not be enough. You could add the 81st in as well, but it would really need to be joint campaign with Gulf allies. I think the islands in the Straight is more likely. Still will need more than the single Marine division and allies involved.

[RainMaker]

Striking South Pars is one of the single dumbest moves I've seen yet and good lord Qatar has to be furious.

[JPhillips]

WaPo is reporting that the Pentagon wants a 200 billion supplemental for the war.

But, of course, there's no money for ACA subsidies.

[JPhillips]

dola

Bessent is suggesting that we will lift sanctions on Iranian oil.

This is a fucking disaster.

[albionmoonlight]

Isn't the play for the GOP to have the White House tell Johnson/Thune to have just enough GOP votes join the next "no war" resolution to have it pass?

Then to pull out and spend from now until November blaming the disaster on the Dems for "voting to pull us out right when we were winning"

[RainMaker]

There won't be any issues passing the $200 billion. Some Republicans will bail on it and just enough Democrats will support it to make it barely pass.

[GrantDawg]

There won't be any issues passing the $200 billion. Some Republicans will bail on it and just enough Democrats will support it to make it barely pass.


Yeah, it will definitely pass. Have to "support the troops" and all. This disaster is becoming more disastrous every day.

[RainMaker]

dola

Bessent is suggesting that we will lift sanctions on Iranian oil.

This is a fucking disaster.

They've spent billions selling oil futures to keep the price under $100. Just running out of money to manipulate the market anymore. Only a matter of time before they did stuff like this.

Also, Iran shouldn't have sanctions on them.

[RainMaker]

I still can't believe how little attention the South Pars thing is getting. What an insane fuckup that not only pisses off allies in the region but completely fucked over some big American companies. I know mainstream media can't report that stuff too much but holy shit people are going to feel that soon.

[GrantDawg]

I still can't believe how little attention the South Pars thing is getting. What an insane fuckup that not only pisses off allies in the region but completely fucked over some big American companies. I know mainstream media can't report that stuff too much but holy shit people are going to feel that soon.
I don't know where you are looking, but I am seeing lots on it. Israel says the attack was with cordination and support of the US, Hegseth comes out right after the attack bragging about it, and then Trump says the US was not involved. It is a complete shit show. Either Trump didn't approve the attack, or he did and forgot.

[GrantDawg]

I will tell you what is not getting enough press. How much this war is totally at the feet of Trump. People seem to forget how Trump, high on the decapitation raid in Venezuela, wanted to immediately attack Iran. It was Israel and the Gulf States that put a break on it because there was no build up of defenses to prepare for it. If Trump had his way, this attack would have went forward 2 months ago with very little carrier support in the area, and as bad as it has been, it would have been so much worse. Trump is a complete and total buffoon. His sudden gun-ho for war has taken Israel completely off the leash. They continue to escalate because they don't just want an air war. They want a full on invasion, and they know if they can antagonize Iran into an attack that will bring it on.

[RainMaker]

I don't know where you are looking, but I am seeing lots on it. Israel says the attack was with cordination and support of the US, Hegseth comes out right after the attack bragging about it, and then Trump says the US was not involved. It is a complete shit show. Either Trump didn't approve the attack, or he did and forgot.

I feel like in any other situation this would be a story that would have hearings in Congress and around the clock news. We bombed our own ally. We put 30% of the world's natural gas at stake. And now Iran is retaliating against all gulf energy because they have a reason to. They just took out 20% of Qatar's LNG capacity. The biggest company in the world had to pull employees out.

This is incredibly bad and one of the worst strategic blunders I can remember the United States making since the war in Iraq. There is only so long that they can manipulate the market to keep oil and other energy at reasonable levels.

[RainMaker]

I will tell you what is not getting enough press. How much this war is totally at the feet of Trump. People seem to forget how Trump, high on the decapitation raid in Venezuela, wanted to immediately attack Iran. It was Israel and the Gulf States that put a break on it because there was no build up of defenses to prepare for it. If Trump had his way, this attack would have went forward 2 months ago with very little carrier support in the area, and as bad as it has been, it would have been so much worse. Trump is a complete and total buffoon. His sudden gun-ho for war has taken Israel completely off the leash. They continue to escalate because they don't just want an air war. They want a full on invasion, and they know if they can antagonize Iran into an attack that will bring it on.

Israel has been off the leash for a long time. They were openly committing genocide. They are doing the same in Lebanon.

This war is at the feet of Trump but also the United States who has allowed this to happen for decades. Harris would be in the same position although probably would have some semi-competent military leaders who wouldn't be bombing our own fucking allies.

[GrantDawg]

Iran has likely hit a F-35 for the first time. They claim to hwve down it, but the Air Firce claims it landed with damage. Even the video that Iran showed of the shot looks like the plane survived. Lots of speculation on how and whether it was a lucky shot or more troubling.
In other news, another Marine Expeditionary Unit is steaming out of California toward the Gulf. That's another 2,500 Marines.

[JPhillips]

Netanyahu said this was going to require troops, and there's no way to even get Israeli troops into Iran in any volume, so he's saying that we have to use troops.

[flere-imsaho]

Iran's AA systems are almost 3 decades old. They shouldn't be able to take out a $1 trillion dollar plane. Well done, military industrial complex. China must be loving this.

[albionmoonlight]

Iran's AA systems are almost 3 decades old. They shouldn't be able to take out a $1 trillion dollar plane. Well done, military industrial complex. China must be loving this.

Maybe we should not have put people who worship the confederacy in charge of a military that we want to actually win things.

[GrantDawg]

Iran's AA systems are almost 3 decades old. They shouldn't be able to take out a $1 trillion dollar plane. Well done, military industrial complex. China must be loving this.
Anything can take out anything if it gets a lucky enough shot.

[GrantDawg]

This is a good break down. If the video is true, the F35 never fired out flares to evade the probable heat-seaker. The question comes down to why? Either the detection suite didn't pick up the missile, or it was pilot error. If I had to guess, this was a low flying plane that was picked up by a Mark I eye ball, and they fired a shoulder fire missile or some other small portable missile at point blank range. Either the plane didn't get a lock warning, or it was so close by the time it did it was too late. Even the questionable video you can see the plane fly off with full afterburners going. He might have hit the burners the split second before the missile exploded, saving the plane, or he hit them because of the explosion and the missile didn't do enough damage to take out the engine.


US F-35 stealth jet hit: How Iran’s infrared systems may have struck the ‘ghost of the skies’ - The Times of India (https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/defence/international/us-f-35-stealth-jet-shot-how-irans-infrared-systems-may-have-struck-the-ghost-of-the-skies/articleshow/129697195.cms)

[flere-imsaho]

Anything can take out anything if it gets a lucky enough shot.

In which case maybe we shouldn't be building planes whose R&D cost is $1T for the types of engagements we have been expecting since the fall of the Cold War.

Or, put another way, a refurbished A-10 is shaking off that hit and coming back around to strafe the shooter.

[Ghost Econ]

Anything can take out anything if it gets a lucky enough shot.

I tried that with Kate Upton and it didn't work

[GrantDawg]

In which case maybe we shouldn't be building planes whose R&D cost is $1T for the types of engagements we have been expecting since the fall of the Cold War.

Or, put another way, a refurbished A-10 is shaking off that hit and coming back around to strafe the shooter.

So did the F35. It landed with the pilot, which is amazing in and of itself. The A-10 is many times greater danger to the pilot than the F35, and is only now being used after the F35 and other aircraft have degraded the AA enough to allow it. The F35 has flown something like 1,000-2,000 sorties in just this conflict (many times that overall in all conflicts) and a total of one has gotten damaged. Not exactly the end of the world. If this leads to several getting hit over the next week, then it is a cause for concern.

Edit: just read the plane did take enough damage that it won't return to service. That still doesn't negate a pretty amazing track record so far.

[GrantDawg]

It seems clear to me this war is just another way for Trump to end justify pulling out of NATO. They knew Europe was never going ti willingly get involved in this war that they see no justification for, and Trump is using it as an example of betrayal. Again, war plans drawn up by Putin. Russia and China keep winning while our paper tiger string man keeps claiming victory.

[Lathum]

It seems clear to me this war is just another way for Trump to end justify pulling out of NATO. They knew Europe was never going ti willingly get involved in this war that they see no justification for, and Trump is using it as an example of betrayal. Again, war plans drawn up by Putin. Russia and China keep winning while our paper tiger string man keeps claiming victory.

My thoughts as well. He is out there claiming he knew they wouldn't come to our aid if we needed them. Completely ignoring the only time in the history of NATO article 5 was enacted was 9-11 when NATO indeed came to our aid.

Of course, he's also so incredibly stupid he may actually think NATO should respond to a war we initiated without their consent.

[JPhillips]

Putin says he'll stop sharing intel with Iran if we cut off Ukraine.

Just a reminder, last week Witkoff assured us that Putin wasn't sharing intel with Iran.

[RainMaker]

It seems clear to me this war is just another way for Trump to end justify pulling out of NATO. They knew Europe was never going ti willingly get involved in this war that they see no justification for, and Trump is using it as an example of betrayal. Again, war plans drawn up by Putin. Russia and China keep winning while our paper tiger string man keeps claiming victory.

Pulling out of NATO was inevitable I think. Remember that Turkey is a future target and them being in NATO is troubling to people in power.

NATO mostly sucks but they'll have to come up with a new group to funnel tax money to the MID.

[RainMaker]

In which case maybe we shouldn't be building planes whose R&D cost is $1T for the types of engagements we have been expecting since the fall of the Cold War.

Or, put another way, a refurbished A-10 is shaking off that hit and coming back around to strafe the shooter.

A trillion dollars just doesn't buy what it used to these days.

[albionmoonlight]

- YouTube (https://youtu.be/YD3RNouwvOU?si=dsKcobT15-f4Ay7b)

[miami_fan]

This is incredibly bad and one of the worst strategic blunders I can remember the United States making since the war in Iraq. There is only so long that they can manipulate the market to keep oil and other energy at reasonable levels.

At which point the public won't remember any of this and allow the administration to blame Biden for releasing too much oil from the SPR, killing the Keystone pipeline, etc.

[Atocep]

There was a report today that Trump thought going to war with Iran would boost his approval because it worked for GWB. Now that it clearly hasn't he's losing interest and wants to find a way out, which is why he made the comment about the straight opening itself up. He's considering pulling us out of it, declaring victory, and just letting everyone else figure out how to get the straight opened up again.

[flere-imsaho]

That would be very on-point for Trump.

[flere-imsaho]

A trillion dollars just doesn't buy what it used to these days.

$1T would have funded the CPB for 1,800 years.

[flere-imsaho]

There was a report today that Trump thought going to war with Iran would boost his approval because it worked for GWB.

I wonder if anyone told him what happened in 2006.

[Atocep]

Trump said if Iran doesn't open the straight in the next 48 hours we'll start bombing their power plans.

Also, Israel said that the war isn't close to ending.

Things are going great.

[dubb93]

We can't even open a Strait by Iran even after we lifted sanctions. How is there any chance at all we could assert dominance in a Strait by China? This entire war is all the proof China needs that their opinion is the only one that matter on exactly what Taiwan is.

[JPhillips]

The war is both over and not over until Trump looks at it.

[dubb93]

The war is both over and not over until Trump looks at it.

Yea it’s terrifying. Trump has done more to make Iran a threat to the world than any US leader in recent memory.

[JPhillips]

Lindsey Graham saying we can take Kharg because we took Iwo Jima isn't a helpful political message.

[Thomkal]

Lindsay Graham saying anything political isn't helpful.

[flere-imsaho]

Yea it’s terrifying. Trump has done more to make Iran a threat to the world than any US leader in recent memory.

Maybe it's just me, but of the 3 major combatants here, I feel Iran is the most rational one.

[Atocep]

Iran says that if we bomb their power plants they'll take out desalination plants throughout the middle east. I can't imagine a scenario where that doesn't bring us to the brink of WW3.

[JPhillips]

Trump has already posted that if Iran hits desalination plants he may use nukes.

[JPhillips]

dola

Good God. The goal is now to hopefully return to how things were before the war.

The “main goal” of the Iran War may have changed, reports Washington Post: “Israeli officials said securing the [Strait of Hormuz] for energy shipments could become the war’s main goal now that regime change and ending Iran’s ability to obtain a nuclear weapon seem out of reach.”

[JPhillips]

This is a really good summary of the absurdity of last week.

https://no01.substack.com/p/march-19-21-god-is-a-comedian

[GrantDawg]

Trump announced this morning there has been "good progress" in talks with Iran, so any energy infrastructure attacks will be put off for five days.

[GrantDawg]

Dola: BTW, Iran claims there have been zero direct or indirect talks.

[JPhillips]

Another opportunity to buy low and short before the next round of attacks. Everything is insider trading.

[dubb93]

Anyone else gonna have some taco's today?

[JPhillips]

TAINT

Trump Always INsider Trades

[JPhillips]

dola

We're going to partner with the Ayatollah?

COLLINS: Who's gonna be in control of the Strait of Hormuz? Who's gonna be in control of that?

TRUMP: Uhhhh it'll be jointly controlled

COLLINS: By who?

TRUMP: Maybe me. Maybe me. Me and the next ayatollah, whoever that is.

[Danny]

dola

We're going to partner with the Ayatollah?

Well hopefully he bows out, gets out of the war and then he can claim victory all he wants. Thats still far preferable than people dying and the potential of WW3

[RainMaker]

I am to believe the USS Gerald Ford is out of commission for overayear because of a laundry fire.

[flere-imsaho]

Given the state of today's Navy, I'm reasonably certain the laundry fire was just their best shot at catching up on a ton of deferred maintenance.

[GrantDawg]

The fire caused damage, but the septic system had been in collapse well before it. They had kept on deployment way longer that it was supposed to, and things do tend to accumulate.
There are 5,000 sailors on the ship. If it had been struck by an enemy missile, there is zero chance some of those guys would not be leaking like a seive. I still think sabotage is way more likely. If you had been living on a ship that had been leaking sewage in the hall ways for months with no end in site, wouldn't you want to set something on fire?

[Atocep]

100% believable

People underestimate the amount of time it takes for just paperwork and funding to move through various government agencies to get things done. Even if this were to stay 100% within the DoD, there are various agencies within the DoD that will have their part it in it and moving funds and getting required signatures takes serious amounts of time.

Here's some examples I've dealt with:

Another MTF (military treatment facility) is selling a plotter (giant printer for architecture and shit). Ours broke. We need it. It's going to be at least a year between them selling it to us and us receiving it. This is an inter-agency purchase (we're both DHA facilities).

We set up warranty repair work with a DoD contract group that are housed on our installation as certified warranty repair workers for dell and HP. It's cheaper and faster than going through Dell/HP for accidental damage. It usually takes 3-4 months to get that contract set up.

I've had a work order with our own facilities team for more than 2 years requesting additional power at our imaging warehouse. I still don't have a date for the work to even start.

Budgets are tight everywhere except at the Pentagon dining hall, it seems, and they're likely using this fiscal year's funds to start the work and next fiscal year's to finish the work. That's my guess.

[Ksyrup]

Am I reading this right - the media is selling us a "the real objective of this war is to put things back to how they were before we started the war" argument?

Reopening the strait — a critical conduit for global energy supplies — has emerged as perhaps the paramount objective of a war that security officials now believe is unlikely to achieve goals that briefly seemed possible at the outset of the U.S.-Israeli military operation, including overthrowing Iran’s theocratic regime and putting a nuclear weapon permanently out of Tehran’s reach.

[Ghost Econ]

Am I reading this right - the media is selling us a "the real objective of this war is to put things back to how they were before we started the war" argument?

That's all Trump has ever accomplished at best. He breaks something that he said didn't work, says he'll make it better, eventually returns it to its previous state (at best), and declares it is better than ever. And the media casts no critical eye and blames Democrats.

[Fidatelo]

Didn't the US also announce the removal of sanctions on Iranian oil the other day? So even if the strait is re-opened you're still not back to where you started.

[NobodyHere]

The US only eased sanctions on Iranian oil that was already at sea.

[Ghost Econ]

So have we made progress in talks or are we sending more troops? It gets confusing.

[flere-imsaho]

I'm not even sure anyone's talked to the troops.

[JPhillips]

It's gonna turn out that Trump has been negotiating with Pahlavi and that Pahlavi has made all sorts of promises about oil.

[GrantDawg]

They are saying now Iran is not willing to negotiate with Witcoff and Kushner. Their choice for negotiator is Vance.

[JPhillips]

The plan being leaked by the White House is very similar to the Obama era peace deal.

So Trump to fuck things up and then "win" by going back to how things were before he fucked them up.

[JPhillips]

dola

But it will be delicious watching Lindsey Graham suddenly turn pro-deal.

[albionmoonlight]

They are saying now Iran is not willing to negotiate with Witcoff and Kushner. Their choice for negotiator is Vance.

Goodness, no. We're somehow gonna end up giving them Florida if Vance is our mastermind at the table.

"I think what the fake news media needs to report is that we didn't give up Texas. This is a huge win for the Trump administration, and frankly I'm tired of this focus on Florida to try and paint a win as a loss."

[NobodyHere]

Can we give them Greenland?

[Ghost Econ]

Saying we won't negotiate with your son-in-law, only the Vice President of the fucking country is quite a flex.

[cuervo72]

It's gonna turn out that Trump has been negotiating with Pahlavi and that Pahlavi has made all sorts of promises about oil.

Oh, absolutely. I'm sure he thought they'd kill the Ayatollah and boom, Pahlavi would instantly be welcomed back and take over the country. Foolproof plan.

[NobodyHere]

It's gonna turn out that Trump has been negotiating with Pahlavi and that Pahlavi has made all sorts of promises about oil.

Trump has already called him a "loser prince" so who knows.

[Atocep]

Goodness, no. We're somehow gonna end up giving them Florida if Vance is our mastermind at the table.

"I think what the fake news media needs to report is that we didn't give up Texas. This is a huge win for the Trump administration, and frankly I'm tired of this focus on Florida to try and paint a win as a loss."

Would giving them Florida really be a bad thing?

[Atocep]

Apparently Trump's daily intel brief on the war is a 2 minute video of us blowing shit up and he has very little idea of how the war is going because no one wants to tell him.

[RainMaker]

Saying we won't negotiate with your son-in-law, only the Vice President of the fucking country is quite a flex.

In fairness, almost every negotiation has ended in the U.S. and Israel using it as a ruse to bomb and kill more people. Why would they trust anyone to negotiate? They're smart enough to know that the U.S. can't have Vance negotiate because his masters don't want this to end.

[GrantDawg]

In fairness, almost every negotiation has ended in the U.S. and Israel using it as a ruse to bomb and kill more people. Why would they trust anyone to negotiate? They're smart enough to know that the U.S. can't have Vance negotiate because his masters don't want this to end.


I honestly think it was mostly to highlight the division in the White House. Vance has been to said to be against the war from the start.

[miami_fan]

Would giving them Florida really be a bad thing?

HEY NOW! There's no need for the hate speech.;)

[GrantDawg]

A number of congressmen are hinting that there will be boots on the ground veey soon. Most likely Friday after the markets close. What that means, who knows. There is not near enough troops there for any kind of even minor invasion.

[RainMaker]

The invasion of Iraq took over 100k I believe. They are farting around with 10k? My guess is they're hoping for a slaughter so they can push for more funding and hope that public perception shifts.

[GrantDawg]

The invasion of Iraq took over 100k I believe. They are farting around with 10k? My guess is they're hoping for a slaughter so they can push for more funding and hope that public perception shifts.

There is zero chance that this is anything like the invasion of Iraq. They are either looking at taking a small corner of something somewhere, or some kind of special forces hit and run action. They couldn't hope to take even a moderate size city with that number, much less the whole country.

[GrantDawg]

Dola: The more I think about it, the more I think the noise about Kharg Island and such is a feint. They are going try to raid someplace sensitive, whether a nuclear site, a missile storage site, or someplace with high value dignitaries.

[JPhillips]

I'm pretty confident they can accomplish the goals of a limited invasion, but then what? What do they do next week if they take Kharg or part of the coast?

[RainMaker]

There is no scenario where they take Kharg without losing a substantial number of troops. It's 20 miles off the coast of Iran and they'll have very little defensive support or help from allies. Iran can just divebomb them with drones forever.

Maybe they take it, but it'll cost thousands of lives just trying. Taking islands isn't easy.

[GrantDawg]

There is no scenario where they take Kharg without losing a substantial number of troops. It's 20 miles off the coast of Iran and they'll have very little defensive support or help from allies. Iran can just divebomb them with drones forever.

Maybe they take it, but it'll cost thousands of lives just trying. Taking islands isn't easy.


That's why I think they are trying to divert attention to Kharg, while there real goal is elsewhere. They can at best take a temporary hold on the island at great cause, and for what?

[Ksyrup]

Looks like Iran is setting up a registration system for the Strait of Hormuz and that a number of countries - including China - are in talks to be part of the system which will allow Iran to selectively determine who gets access. Which means that unless we totally dismantle Iran's leadership, whatever "mission accomplished" moment Trump picks in the near future to pivot away from an unpopular war will likely position the US in a much worse post-war scenario than we had before it. Fun!

[NobodyHere]

Looks like Iran is setting up a registration system for the Strait of Hormuz and that a number of countries - including China - are in talks to be part of the system which will allow Iran to selectively determine who gets access. Which means that unless we totally dismantle Iran's leadership, whatever "mission accomplished" moment Trump picks in the near future to pivot away from an unpopular war will likely position the US in a much worse post-war scenario than we had before it. Fun!

Wouldn't be surprised if China saw this as a license to set up it's own similar system in the South China Sea.

[flere-imsaho]

Goodness, no. We're somehow gonna end up giving them Florida if Vance is our mastermind at the table.

I'm OK with that.

I honestly think it was mostly to highlight the division in the White House. Vance has been to said to be against the war from the start.

Of course Vance is against the war. His oligarch paymasters need stability in the financial markets to allow for low-cost capital for their activities.

[flere-imsaho]

The invasion of Iraq took over 100k I believe. They are farting around with 10k? My guess is they're hoping for a slaughter so they can push for more funding and hope that public perception shifts.

There is zero chance that this is anything like the invasion of Iraq. They are either looking at taking a small corner of something somewhere, or some kind of special forces hit and run action. They couldn't hope to take even a moderate size city with that number, much less the whole country.

I'm pretty confident they can accomplish the goals of a limited invasion, but then what? What do they do next week if they take Kharg or part of the coast?

Not directed at you three, but all this sounds an awful lot like 2001's / 2002's "We'll be in-and-out of there in no time" prelude to quagmires.

[JPhillips]

I'm actually saying the opposite, but maybe I didn't phrase it well. Just like in Iraq and currently in Iran, I'm confident we can take the objective fairly quickly. What, though, happens after we take the objective? What do we do if we take Kharg? How long do we hold it? Why would we even want to hold it? How does holding it bring us closer to peace?

I still think the best day to leave and declare victory is today and it's a little harder to do that every day after today.

[flere-imsaho]

Sorry, I phrased that poorly. Just like Afghanistan & Iraq, we all agree that initial objectives will likely be achieved and then I think we all agree that there's no real plan after that, and so it'll end up in a quagmire again. Funny how regular people learned the lesson from Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam, etc... but yet another presidential administration is having a go with a ground war in the Middle East.

[RainMaker]

What is the objective? To take the island and get hell rained down on them?

[dubb93]

What is the objective? To take the island and get hell rained down on them?

It’s a plan!

[GrantDawg]

What is the objective? To take the island and get hell rained down on them?


That's why I still don't think that is really the plan. The idea maybe that the cost of losing the oil hub would be so great Iran would capitulate, but if they think that they have really misjudged who they are fighting. What am i saying? They have completely misjudged who they are fighting. Maybe they are that stupid.

[GrantDawg]

Trump announces a ten day extension of the bombing of energy infrastructure. It follows the biggest drop in the market since the war began. Those two things are very much related. It is also a strong possibility the generals have finally made it clear to him they need more time before any meaningful ground action.

[RainMaker]

That's why I still don't think that is really the plan. The idea maybe that the cost of losing the oil hub would be so great Iran would capitulate, but if they think that they have really misjudged who they are fighting. What am i saying? They have completely misjudged who they are fighting. Maybe they are that stupid.

I think the economic impacts would be worse for the world than Iran who already deals with the shit from sanctions. Markets have been down but I feel like a full on invasion will absolutely gut the global markets.

[flere-imsaho]

It’s a plan!

Or maybe, a concept of a plan?

Trump announces a ten day extension of the bombing of energy infrastructure. It follows the biggest drop in the market since the war began. Those two things are very much related.

The DOW is nowhere near 50,000.

[miami_fan]

Uhh...

Army ups enlistment age to 42, eases marijuana restrictions (https://taskandpurpose.com/news/army-enlistment-age-marijuana-waiver/)

I am fully prepared to be told that things have changed over the eleven years since I retired from the military. However, back in my day, raising the enlistment age was seen as a sign that we are not getting enough quality recruits to fill the needs of the military despite meeting/surpassing recruitment goals. Also, more older people joining the military was seen as a sign of a downtrodden civilian economy. That is not to say that older people were not joining the military for patriotic reasons or similar reasons to younger folks. That is to say that when the economy began to take its upturn and Google, Lockheed Martin or another major companies came offering salaries that are double or triple what a young (in terms of time in service, not age) officer makes or ten times what a young enlisted service member makes, the older folks were more likely to take those jobs to secure their families' future.

RE: marijuana waivers.

I think this sums up my thoughts perfectly.

“It’s just us looking at, as the states continue to legalize marijuana versus those that don’t, and the federal government not yet legalizing,” Chipman said, “at what point are we hindering ourselves by holding people to this type of conviction that in some states is okay and some states isn’t?”

[JPhillips]

I wonder how many potential military recruits decided to take the bonus offer from ICE. It seems like they would largely recruit from the same pool.

[cuervo72]

Would probably also help if they didn't come out and say they outright don't want 50-60% of the population.