It's so bad Josh Johnson is in now at QB, and scores. He's clearly the answer.

WOW! What an ending to the NE-Miami game!

The one time Belichick doesn't go for the jugular. Settles for a FG and lose by 1 on the miracle TD

I swear every team should be looking for a drug to give NE before every game that makes them think they are in Miami, because crazy stuff just happens to them there nearly every time. No way Miami should have won that game.

Putting Gronk out there like a hail mary was actually an option from that distance might have been worse than the Butler SB benching.

Yeah, just caught it. Gronk ended up being the last guy with a shot and showed he had no business on defense.

No idea why he would be on the field in that situation.

I was following the end of the game on my phone and didn't understand why they were playing for 3 there. Try to score the TD.

Good Lord, this DET/ARI game is horrible. Surprise?

Funny that Gronk was the last line of defense on a 69 yard TD.

You had one job today New England.

Cards never lose to Detroit,,,sound familiar Green Bay? :)

My reaction to that last Dolphins-Pats play.

Anchorman- I'm not even mad, that's amazing - YouTube

Longest play from scrimmage to win a game with no time left since the merger in 1970.

Please just fire Vance Joseph. What an embarrassment. I knew winning the last 3 weeks was only going to result in a worse draft pick than Denver should get.

The official title of this Detroit-Arizona game is “Lions-Cardinals: An Exercise in Coaching Hire Regret.”

Patriots always have 1 offensive player (usually Gronk, when he was hurt it was Josh Gordon) who's the designated jumper to knock down hail mary's, with all the defensive players coached to stay on the ground... But like Logan said a hail mary probably wasn't a realistic option there with Tannehill at QB. As much as you can blame him/the coaches on it, the multiple DB's who missed tackles also deserve blame :/

Oh well. Pretty brutal 5 minute stretch there from "hey, we might be in the driver's seat for the 1 seed & home field!" to basically zero chance, but it's still just a regular season game. Just going to have to win in Arrowhead unless the Chiefs lose the divisional game, but they certainly look less scary without Kareem Hunt (and they still have Andy Reid coaching them.)

Shit, maybe he intentionally stumbled :lol:

That was an absolutely brutal PI call on the Eagles, followed by an absolutely brutal PF call on Dallas. Glad the refs are making themselves known!

The refs just have no clue what they're doing and nobody knows what the rules are. Joe Philbin challenged two "catches" in the first two minutes of the Packers-Falcons game and lost both. Neither one was a catch.

Let's just play fourth quarters from now on.

Both were horrible calls.

Flags, flags and more flags. The NFL has taken what would have been a really good game in Dallas and turned it into an absolute fucking farce.

Mike Pereira sounds embarrassed every time they throw it to him for his take on another bad call.

LOL

+1 .... I know it won't happen but they need to dump Elway as well as Musgrave, Woods and Joseph at the end of the season in that order! The locals here wanting to blame Keenum and he is not the problem.

Thank you Raiders for Khalil Mack.

The refs can be dumb, and were pretty terrible in the 4th quarter of Philly/Dallas, plus Green Bay won going away, but Joe Philbin challenging and losing both challenges in the first 1:23 shouldn't be ignored. Can't blame the refs for his idiocy.

Wow indeed!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-zP1_HvhzM

Back to the NE-MIA ending...forget about NE playing too conservatively on that last drive for a minute, but I'm wondering about the strategy to kick the FG there. Obviously doing so to put you up 5 is good in that now you're requiring more than a FG to beat you, but how much worth does that really have if the likelihood of your opponent even getting a FG try is pretty low?

4th and goal from the 4 with Brady and Gronk has to have a fairly good probability of a TD which wins you the game. If you fail, let's assume the same amount of time comes off the clock as the chip shot FG. You're then leaving Miami at its own 4 yard line (or maybe a bit worse) needing to get all the way to your own 40 or so yard line, in less than 16 seconds, with no timeouts, while also getting the 55+ yard FG off. And it's a rookie kicker with a career long of 50.

1st and goal from the 7. Obviously you're taking a risk putting the ball in the air, but they could have run a couple of WR screen passes or dump offs to the RBs that could have scored and still run clock.

I would have tried to score before 4th down and then given serious consideration to throwing for it on 4th. If Brady gets enough protection and sits in there, the chances that someone in the Dolphins secondary gets flagged for holding are probably pretty high. Has anyone not watched the NFL this year? Bail-out defensive penalties seem like 10-20% of all 3rd down conversions.

Good points. I think now that we're seeing teams go for it on 4th down more, the next change will be teams going for it on longer distances and using the passing game more. Would 4th and 6 from the 50 really be significantly harder for the Saints offense to pick up than 4th and 3? I don't know the numbers, and sample size would probably be an issue in getting a good sense of the likelihood of conversion, but my guess is the difference in the true odds of success across those scenarios are nowhere near the difference in how frequently offenses would try it.

Not enough sad New England shots

I just think with all of the rules favoring offense, the equation on 4th downs (and end of game strategy in general) needs to be re-thought. Pittsburgh should have tied Oakland in a similar situation yesterday, too. All you need is a DPI (a rule I'd like to see changed to the college rule) or a couple of defensive holding calls to keep a game going and get you into FG or end zone shot range.

And for Amari Cooper.

I'm not saying justin Tucker could punt great, but I'm sure he could maybe be like the 20-50th best punter in the league. Eventually some coach will just decide that wasting 1 spot on a guy who should have very limited usage isn't worth it and teams will all laugh 15 years later when nobody has a punter.

If kickers practiced at it, some of them surely could be effective enough to make that cost/benefit analysis worth doing.

Listening to Kenyon Drake on LeBatard.

"Can you pinpoint the moment you knew you were going to score?"

"Yeah, literally when I saw him (Gronk)."

HA!

Yes, CFL teams have been doing this for decades. The idea makes a lot of sense.

Such a fascinating play, can't wait to watch the All-22. (Like you, I was more morbidly fascinated than upset by the loss).

Seems like everything started with the delayed first lateral, where the first Dolphin took a few steps forward before throwing it back. That seemed to paralyze the Patriots' defenders just long enough to where they weren't going to be in position and couldn't catch back up with the Dolphins setting things up downfield. The Dolphins never stopped moving and too many Patriots stopped and had to restart.

Belichick claimed that Gronk wasn't in there for a hail marry, but if they did the play where the ball goes 30-40 yards downfield first before the laterals start. I don't understand why an actual defensive player wouldn't be a better fit on a play like that, but, what do I know. Gronk would only be (marginally) useful if he happened to be right at where the first pass came down - which seems really unlikely when the Dolphins had the whole field to work with. And if the Dolphins used ANY of the rest of the field, Gronk would be a huge liability (which obviously was the case).

I also think that Gronk of five years ago makes that play. He's not the physical freak he once was.

dola: Just thinking about it, what you really want in that situation is probably your best special teams guys. Guys who are used to pursuing and tackling in the open field.

There seemed to be a point when Drake had the ball where you can see at least a few of the defenders move a bit forward in trying to anticipate/guard against the next lateral and all that did was leave the enormous seam for him to run through.

Yeah, Stephon Gilmore stays back guarding against a pitch, it looks like. Once he moved back, that opened the lane. The OL who ran 60 yards down field and got the trap block was probably the biggest key to the whole thing.

You sense the Pats announcers are desperately trying to speak without swearing for the majority of this!

Patriots Radio Announcers React to Stunning Loss vs. Dolphins | NFL Highlights - YouTube

Dola

Sports!

I haven't read (or even heard from or about) Bill Simmons in years, but apparently he crapped all over himself yesterday trying to make that play all about the first time it was ever successful, etc., and he rightly got called out for not knowing anything about sports outside of Boston (or the NBA, I guess).

Simmons is one of those entertainment entities who had a big following who just love to bash him. He's always been more entertainment and casual sports observation than detailed sports analysis, but, it's a formula that works and has made him really popular. His weekly guess the lines podcast with Jimmy Kimmell's cousin is the only sports podcast I regularly listen to. But ya, Simmons "fans" meltdown on him after every podcast, nothing new there.

Edit: And I did read somewhere that this was the first NFL game-ending multiple lateral TD play since 2003 or something (The Steelers had one called back in 2013). The 2003 one was when the Saints kicker missed the extra point afterwards, so you actually have to go back sometime before that to find one that WON a game. The Music City Miracle doesn't technically count because it was only one lateral....And browsing a reddit thread about this, I'm not sure there's EVER actually been a NFL game-ending, game-winning, multiple lateral play, or not one that people have come up with yet.

Yeah, I think Simmons meant game ending play. That's why he referenced Friday Night Lights, since Coach Taylor's teams won on the last play of the game so many times. The Miami-San Diego 1981 play was at the end of the half and the Boise play just sent it to overtime.

Miami/Duke was just a couple of years ago, too.

Bill mentioned hook and ladder in his tweet. Miami-Duke, Cal-Stanford, Music City, etc. were not hook and ladders.

Simmons is smart/savvy enough to play the Boston-homer troll card just enough. It keeps a certain segment of fans engaged with him through argument.

So sick of talking about how bad the refs are. Call Wagner for grasping the helmet opening (?) then completely miss (or ignore) a clear facemask. It's like they are trying to suck.

I am not feeling this game. Zzzzzzzz

Janikowski: "You're on Mic'ed up?! You are?! Next time tell me first!"

I would LOVE to hear the conversation that preceeded that.

Firstly, that was a hell of a missed call to put the flag away on that FG block. By the rules that was a no-brainer that changes the entire complexion of the game. It’s ironic that the previous holder of the shittiest crew chief in the league title belt is now commntating on the current one.

Secondly, I’d have given Bridgewater a shot and retained Keenum as a backup option a million times over paying Cousins all that money last summer. You think the Vikings want a do-over now? I understand you have to pay for average QB play but that doesn’t mean you pay a top 20 guy like Tom Brady.

They all spent the last 5 minutes trying to pretend they know how to play football now, like I wasn't watching the rest of this game.

And if you're going to bring in a quarterback with limited mobility like Cousins, please try to fix the offensive line that you know is an issue. So god damn pissed as a Vikings fan right now.

This game is cold garbage that wishes it could be even slightly warm.

Vikings fire their offensive coordinator

4th OC fired by Zimmer since he took over in 2014. I think he wants the ghost of Red Grange to just run the ball 50 times, punt and win games 6-3.

playoffs scenarios for week 15

New England
MIA loss + NE win/tie -> NE division title
MIA tie + NE win -> NE division title
MIA has tie-breakers over NE

Houston
HOU win + IND loss/tie + TEN loss/tie -> HOU division title
HOU tie + IND loss + TEN loss -> HOU division title
IND and TEN have tie-breakers over HOU

Kansas City
KC playoffs
KC win -> KC division title and bye (+ NE loss/tie -> #1 seed)
KC has tie-breakers over LAC
KC vs HOU undecided, but will be secured by KC with win/tie vs LAC (week 15) or OAK (week 17)
NE has tie-breakers over KC

LA Chargers
LAC win/tie -> LAC playoffs
LAC loss + HOU win + IND loss/tie + TEN loss/tie + MIA loss/tie + BAL loss/tie -> LAC playoffs
LAC loss + HOU win + IND loss/tie + TEN loss/tie + MIA loss/tie + BAL win + PIT loss/tie -> LAC playoffs
LAC loss + HOU tie + IND loss + TEN loss + MIA loss/tie + BAL loss/tie -> LAC playoffs
LAC loss + HOU tie + IND loss + TEN loss + MIA loss/tie + BAL win + PIT loss/tie -> LAC playoffs
LAC has tie-breakers over PIT, IND and TEN
LAC undecided tie-breakers vs NE, BAL and HOU
MIA will have tie-breakers over LAC

Dallas
DAL win -> DAL division title
DAL tie + WAS loss/tie + PHI loss/tie -> DAL division title
DAL loss + WAS loss + PHI loss -> DAL division title
DAL has tie-breakers over PHI, WAS and NYG

Chicago
CHI win -> CHI division title
CHI tie + MIN loss/tie -> CHI division title
CHI loss + MIN loss -> CHI division title
MIN has tie-breakers over CHI

New Orleans
NO division title
CHI loss + NO win/tie -> NO bye week
CHI tie + NO win -> NO bye week
CHI will have tie-breakers over NO

LA Rams
LAR division title
CHI loss + LAR win/tie -> LAR bye week
CHI tie + LAR win -> LAR bye week
CHI will have tie-breakers over LAR

Seattle
SEA win -> playoffs (+ MIN loss/tie -> #5 seed)
SEA tie + 3 of 4 from PHI loss/tie, WAS loss/tie, MIN loss, CAR loss/tie -> playoffs (all 4 -> #5 seed)
SEA loss + PHI loss, WAS loss, GB loss/tie, CAR loss -> playoffs (all 4 -> #5 seed)
SEA has tie-breakers over NYG, PHI, WAS, MIN, GB, DET, CAR and TB
this is the short version that does not take into account the order of games played (first WAS, GB and MIN, then SEA, then PHI, then CAR), long version with games played taken into account is below:

FYI, in several tie-breaker situations mentioned above as "XXX has tie-beakers over YYY", the team currently ahead in the division race may seem to have the better tie-breakers for now, but in all possible scenarios that make those teams end up tied the other team would come back from behind.
Also note that these scenarios are specific for week 15 games.

Also, the Browns make the playoffs if they win out (v. Broncos, Bengals, Redskins), the Steelers lose out (v. Patriots, Saints, Bengals), and if the Ravens lose 1 other game in addition to losing to the Browns (v. either Buccaneers or Chargers).

I think you meant Ravens where you wrote Redskins. Cleveland is also still in the wild card race if one from Baltimore and Pittsburgh does manage to stay ahead of Cleveland, but it's an even steeper hill than the division title route with Miami, Indianapolis and Tennessee all 1.5 wins ahead.

Heck, even Cincinnati is technically still alive for the AFC North division title (and for the wild card if Indianapolis and Tennessee tie in week 17):
Cincinnati W vs OAK, W vs CLE, W vs PIT
Pittsburgh L vs NE, L vs NO
Baltimore at most 1 W + 1T vs TB, LAC and CLE
Cleveland further results will be moot if CIN beats CLE

It's a really fun time to be a football fan when articles like this are becoming commonplace:

Freddie Kitchens: Why the Browns' offense is clicking while he builds a strong offensive-coordinator resume -- Film Room | cleveland.com

Even 5 years ago, this would have been buried in the deep dive section of Football Outsiders if it even existed at all.

Carson Wentz has a back injury and will not play this week and maybe the rest of the season. Where have we heard this before?

At the point he hurt his knee last year, he was a young QB who was either 1 or 2 in the MVP race leading a Super Bowl contender.

And he's still sort of that. But now he's also the guy who's had season ending injuries the last two seasons (assuming this one keeps him out) and was playing .500 ball this year.

He'll still be in line for a "highest ever paid QB" extension when his time comes, and he'll get it. But 12 months ago, that extension was a no-brainer for the Eagles. Now, it's at least a little bit of a brainer.

Not sure I agree with highest ever paid QB extension. I think it depends on the severity of the back injury now. If this is what an injury prone Wentz is going to be like when he does get on the field, is he really worth all that money?

John DeFlippo was calling a game like a person playing Madden football would be calling plays. The offense didnt have consistent flow nor was anything being set up for the latter part of the game. Adjustments werent being made for what the defense was doing and they werent finding ways to help out their ailing offensive line. Cousins is getting the blame but the way each game is being called it is on him to try to save the entire offense dealing with an extreme pass rush.

Reminded me of the Brad Childress days of offense.

The Vikings would be silly to let Zimmer go like these "internet" rumors are saying. Id take my chances with him and his stingy defense any day of the week.

I’m certainly not a Vikings fan but whenever I’ve seen them it’s been more Cousins just not having a good pocket presence and getting the ball out on time or making bad decisions rather than some terrible line play and an overwhelming rush. That’s been his MO in Washington as well IIRC - definitely possible he’s played behind some awful lines but feels more like that is who he is as a QB right now.

Jordan Heck on Twitter: "In just this short clip Stephen A. Smith:

— Forgot Spencer Ware was out
— Called them San Diego Chargers
— Said he was looking forward to watching Hunter Henry, who hasn't played all year
— Said Henry was going up against Derrick Johnson, who is a free agent
— Broke Tedy Bruschi… https://t.co/h5EP7ckOhj"



The looks on Bruschis face are amazing during this

LOL

Wow

Watching the Jets I was curious as to how the fuck a team could have so little offensive talent. I actually feel bad watching Darnold. They weren't bad today, but they have damn near nothing to support him on the offensive side of the ball.

New York Jets All-Time Draft History | Pro-Football-Reference.com

That's the Jets draft history.

Holy shit looking at that is depressing.

The best receiver they've drafted since 2012 is Charone Peake. Unless I'm missing someone, the only offensive lineman they've drafted in the top 3 rounds since 2010 is Brian Winters. They drafted Christian Hackenberg in the 2nd round.

The most stunning thing about this is the Mike Maccagnan (GM) was given an extension last year.

I don't know if it's worse that they are so devoid of talent on offense (other than Hackenburg there's not a terrible pick) or the fact that the defense isn't better given all the high picks they've made on that side of the ball.

I do feel for Darnold as well - he hasn't been good this season but with no receivers, RB or offensive line, was it really a good idea getting a gunslinger who will make a ton of high risk plays? Was there any plan in place going into this season? They either need to get a ton of offensive talent which is always massively risky trying to do through FA, or he's just going to get eaten up by the NY media after a year or two.

Shurg, I saw people saying the Jets had the best WR corps in the AFC East coming into the season. I didn't really agree with it, they're decent. RB's are an issue since Bilal Powell finally hit the cliff, and the OL hasn't had anyone great since... Nick Mangold? But when you pick 1 OL in the top 3 rounds in 8 years that isn't too surprising.

And the Browns are still alive!

My beloved Cardinals playing like they want to keep the #1 pick.

Why do the Patriots lose when I want them to win and win when I want them to lose?

You should root for them more often.

For extra special torture, try having them on your fantasy team. Its sheer joy each and every week trying to figure out what darth bill is gonna do with your starters!

Goff is terrible when pressured.

I would love to know what happened to this team. The defense has been shaky all year, but once Krupp was lost for the year the offense has fallen off a ton.

Rams aren’t winning a title with that QB and that secondary.

A lot of teams with question marks over the last few weeks. I’d ask if it’s possible that the Chargers are the best team in the league with Bosa back, but we all know how hilariously that is going to end. For so it is written.

Shocked that the Steelers finally got a win at home.

I don't know if it's issues with the OL itself, how they're setting the protections, or how Goff is responding to it...but his mechanics seem to go to shit when he gets pressure, especially up the middle, and you can actually see the ball coming out differently. On that long pass down to Reynolds late (overturned to be down just short of the GL) it was clean up the middle and he stepped into the throw and you could tell right away that it was a beauty out of his hand.

I think there are several reasons:

1) He lost his OC and QB coach from last year. I don't think it has shown until now, because it didn't need to when things were good.

2) McVay has not adapted as quickly as he did earlier in the year. Early in the year, if a team was taking something away, he adapted quickly. That has not happened since the bye.

3) Goff has no confidence in Reynolds. Reynolds has made some plays, but he is not the security blanket that Kupp was. Earlier in the season, if Goff was blitzed, he immediately got the ball out to Kupp. Reynolds has made a number of bone headed plays since he has replaced Kupp and Goff is second guessing himself before making the throw. That interception he threw in the first half was not entirely on him. It was not a great throw, but Reynolds should have had that, instead he essentially knocks it up for the CB to make the play.

4) There is no help from the TEs. Higbee is not bad, but he is mostly used to block. When Everett goes in, you know it is going to be a passing play. The problem is, he is not good enough. He has the physical skills, but he makes you pull your hair out because he does not put it all together.

That incompletion to Everett in the 3rd that Collinsworth said was on Goff, I put more blame on Everett. Most receivers run that route to the sideline, if he does that, the ball is not behind him, and he walks in for a TD.

5) Teams have adapted to the Rams attack with Kupp out. Woods goes to the slot, he is fine there, but one safety helps out with Cooks, on plays the middle zone and cheats to help out on Woods, and that puts Reynolds in one and one coverage on the outside. He does not create any separation, and lacks the killer instinct to beat his man for the ball (which goes back to #2 above).

When Kupp was in, you couldn't double any two of the WRs, because the other guy would kill you. Kupp and Woods are incredible route runners and are always creating separation in 1 on 1 matchups. Cooks is not quite to their level in route running, but he can blow by you.

When Goff has time, he will pick you apart. When Goff is rushed and Kupp is out there, he will make a hot read and get it to him or Woods. Take Kupp out of the lineup, and he just doesn't have anyone to get the ball to in that situation.

Totally agree with all of these points. And yes, Reynolds sucks.

I know they've moved the trade deadline back but it would be so much more fun if it was moved back even more. Let everyone load up for the playof

Good post War.

So do Philip Rivers chances at being a Hall of Famer depend on the Chargers winning a Super Bowl (or at the very least getting there)?

They shouldn't depend on that, but they probably will.

Rivers is an easy 2nd ballot HOF guy

Needing Will Lutz to keep pace with Cam Newton tonight and seeing Carolina get a 50 yard TD Pass in the opening minutes is not doing my blood pressure any wonders. Thank god for trick plays.

Just saw Josh Gordon trending on Twitter and feared the worst.

Apparently, he is stepping away from football to focus on his mental health. I'm sure that there's more to the story than that, but I'm glad the story isn't that he was dead or arrested. And I really hope that he's managing to head off his demons by getting ahead of them.

Been reported that he's going to be suspended again so I guess the timeline is his mental health issues have caused him to go back to feeling he needs to rely on substances, which is leading to the suspension.

Not trying to make light of anything or imply he's using mental health as a cover, just in case it gets taken that way. Just filling in more of the story.

Outside of coaching staffs trying to hold onto a job, why do any NFL teams play their starters after getting knocked out of the playoff hunt?

For example - the Falcons. Why play Matt Ryan, Julio, etc. if things going poorly, you get injured starters or win games and hurt your draft status. They don’t need Ryan to play to get more reps.

Butts in seats.

Maybe because for some of them there's the perception 5-11 gets you fired whereas 7-9 with a couple of nice wins in the last weeks gives you a chance of not?