Yeah, maybe I'm misreading what I just posted up there, but that's sure what it sounds like. Maybe EF didn't mean it that way.

I think EF needs to clarify this point

It's a little weird that you would be able to contribute, but have to avoid mentioning anything about the WW portion. It might give an advantage to the village, but mostly in the case of an offed seer who didn't reveal.

I'd say there are 4 wolves (because of the cunning) and we've already got one. I'm confident we can nab another one tomorrow, luck is on our side.

Plus I can use the force :p

OK, off to bed. Been a fun day of WW

The problem I have with this is why would he do it that late in day one? I don't think that it would be done under normal circumstances, especially if we were close to lynching a villager who might be the seer. If that were the case then they would probably leave sacrificing MartinD until day two. The only reason I could see why the wolves would make a move like that is if mauboy is the cunning wolf. In such a situation they'd hope to clear two wolves, mauboy on a scan and saldana for giving up a wolf. It's risky though being it leaves saldana a candidate to be scanned by the seer.

Given the circumstances that would need to be necessary for a move like that to work I really don't think saldana gave up MartinD as another wolf.

EF told me you can still talk until you're out for good (of both the WW and AR parts of the game).

The part about mauboy does not make sense. If he is scanned as a villager, we know he is a wolf anyway as he is either the seer or a wolf. No other options for him.

I doubt Saldana is a wolf and I'd rather see someone else scanned. I think he is capable of a strong wolf play, but I seriously doubt he would have done it in a meta gamey way if he was a wolf. I'm guessing part of the reason his revealing of info was delayed was to see what EF said about it.

At this point, we know this

Mauboy = Seer or a Wolf
Lathum = Bodyguard

I'd also add this as an opinion.

Saldana is likely a villager.

I don't think it's what happened, but it's the only situation where I could see a wolf pulling a move like that so late day one. Mostly making the point that I don't think saldana is a wolf.

And despite everyone seemingly not, I tend to lean toward Mauboy actually being the seer. MartinD placed a key 3rd vote on him that was posted about the same time as the second vote and really helped establish him as a lynch candidate when it wasn't needed.

Well, I agree with the Saldana part.

I have extreme doubts mau is the seer. I think it was a desperation move and trying to emulate tyke's move last game of inventing a role . That said if mau is not the seer, the real seer is not going to out himself to refute that. The "future" comment was obviously claiming seer. His claiming BG protected him too really sounds like he's making stuff up and overexplaining.

Amazing reveal, Lathum. With that info I think both Jackal and mau can be wolves.

You forgot one thing:

Darth Vilus = BAMF!

He may or may not be. If he's not dead on night 3, we know he's a wolf.

We're both BAMF = Broke Ass Mother ****ers

Did you get your new phone btw?

Yeah that's true. And no not yet, i'll have to wait til next week at least

I don't entirely believe him either. I'm also open to the possibility that he's a regular villager who dropped hints that he seer to stay around past day one. I agree that the future comment was to give the impression he's a seer, but also without saying it so he can claim he never admitted to being seer.

I also think that he could be a wolf, but currently think The Jackal is a better pick for tonights vote.

I don't like Mauboy's reveal to be honest. It just doesn't sit with me. If he was goin to hint instead of coming right out with it his hint wouldn't have been so blatant

Don't by that a vanilla would do that. And if he did, he should be lynched for it.

This type of strategy puts the real seer in danger, i doubt that he would do that

But being new, he wouldn't realize that. I definitely think he would do that just to save himself, wolf or not.

True, we'll just have to see how this plays out. In my opinion we sould handle the jackal situation first

*should

Holy shit guys.

Sorry for missing the deadline, after putting the youngest to sleep, I sat on the couch for a minute and the next thing I knew, it was 1am. I can't believe the insanity I missed. Let me try to summarize:

1. mauboy1 is the seer or a wolf
2. saldana handed us a wolf after a PM from his partner telling him he was a wolf (uh, thanks!)
3. No NK, Lathum reveals he's BG and says he had told his partner that (Lathum, why would you do that when you didn't know if he was a wolf or not? That seems like a poor idea, although it apparently may have caught us another wolf)
4. Our team came in second for the leg, woohoo!

On the WW side, I'm going to hope mau is a wolf because even though we are off to a good start, it sucks if we're losing the seer and BG by N3 in a game where I figured the roles would last longer than usual considering there are more villagers than games I have usually played in. For today, I guess there are four possibilities:

1. mau is a wolf, Jackal is a wolf, wolves knew Lathum was BG and tried to off him N1.
2. mau is the seer, Jackal is a wolf, wolves knew Lathum was BG, figured Lathum would protect mau, and tried to off him N1.
3. mau is a wolf, Jackal is a villager, wolves had no knowledge of Lathum being BG and just took a swing a him randomly.
4. mau is seer, Jackal is a villager, wolves had no knowledge of Lathum being BG, figured mau would be protected, and just took a swing at him randomly.

I'm not a big believer in WW coincidence, so I'm less inclined to believe 3. or 4 (yes Lathum is a good player, but there's no shortage of strong players to take a random swing at). I don't know which of 1. or 2. is most likely, though I think as a wolf in scenario 2. I'd have been conservative and tried to NK mau to be guaranteed to have the seer out by N2, but either way Jackal would be a wolf, thus:

Vote Jackal

I'll try to keep up today, but I'm going to be challenged for time.

I wish I could say that I had something good to say get the vote off Jackal if he is not a wolf. I didn't scan a wolf last night. I was actually debating between Lathum and Chief Rum and thankfully I went with CR. He scanned as a villager.

I think Lathum might be putting too much emphasis on Jackal which has caused all the votes to go his way, unfortunately. If we do find out he is a villager I'm not sure how we're better off. Someone please explain what we do gain by going gung-ho and having an all-out lopsided vote on Jackal?

Here's what I do know I'm doing today..

I'm not voting for Saldana as the chances that both partners are wolves are pretty slim and would be a crazy move for Saldana to make if he's a wolf. Not seeing that move being made on day 1 though.

I'm not voting for Jackal because we need diversity if this doesn't work. I'd almost rather try swinging this into someone else's favor and investigate the quick voting on Jackal for day 3.

I'm not voting Lathum with his reveal.

And I also know I'm not voting CR as he was cleared with my scan.

Those are the four I know I'm not voting today, so that leaves me with 15 others.

14...

Throwing more crazy conspiracy theories out there... what if Mau is the cunning, and the wolves decide to sacrifice the non-roled wolf to save him? The upside would be huge - knowing that Mauboy is a villager and claimed seer, there is no way that he gets lynched and the wolves could control a lot of the game.

The timing of Saldana's reveal seems just so questionable to me in terms of who it saved and when (doesn't necessarily look bad for Sal - he could have been fed the information by MartinD and be completely clueless about the whole thing)

Sal - what time did you get the PM from MartinD, if you don't mind sharing?

2 things bother me 1) the timing of a stone clad lynch to save Mauboy and 2) the fact that somebody could be that stupid to just PM their partner who is 75% chance of being a villager that they are a wolf.

I know people think there's no way the wolves sacrifice one of their own on day 1 but there's 5 of them left. Pretty big upside to doing that IMO.

This would only fly until the real seer was outed, then their plan would sink.

Well, seems to me that there's two options

1) the real seer would almost have to come forward at that point, meaning they know who the seer is (huge play for wolves)

2) the real seer stays quiet and mauboy gets to control all the scans up until the point that the real seer get's lynched or NK'd

I guess the real seer could get killed early on and this plan wouldn't work. But otherwise, you could control a large portion of the game for quite a while.

Again apologies if this seems dumb. Just trying to put some conversation out there. The other option seems to be that MartinD made one of the biggest screwups in game history and/or the wolves are stupid and I'm not willing to just take that at face value.

See, someone please explain to me how trying to take out Lathum N1 would be a good idea if I was a wolf. There's absolutely no way I'd go without suspicion, it would be an awful move. What am I, a rookie? We'd have the knowledge that he was the BG in our back pockets, and be able to take him out later on without him being suspicious that I revealed any info.

I'm not a wolf, guys. It's a bizarre coincidence, but it's a coincidence nonetheless.

What happened last night should clear me much more than it damns me. If I was a wolf, I wouldn't have let that crap happen. That's an easy NK a couple days down the road, so what if he can get a block or two in.

Now as to who we should be voting instead, well, I don't have any great options. Sal gets a pass at least for now, and obviously we're not going after CR. Perhaps JAG or NTN to clear up some of the vote movement from yesterday, but that's about all I have.

In response to the timing question. I got the PM from martin a few hours earlier than I posted in the thread because I was waiting to see what EF said about it

I was ready to drop out of the game until he told me that it was ok to come in and give the info up to the village.

I didn't get that PM til about 5 minutes before I posted

I worked til 630 last night and had my kids til 9, so that was the fastest i could turn the info around

As far as me giving up a wolf on day 1 to draw a scan because I am the cunning, that's a really ballsy move on day one that would have been totally unnecessary. I'm a vanilla villager who got lucky

fwiw I know you were out last night. I think what happened was the other wolves came up with this why you were away

Wow...what a crazy night...

A lopsided vote that goes the wrong way definitely doesn't help things down the road, but this is clearly the best option for today.

VOTE THE JACKAL

I don't see any situation where it makes sense to imagine Saldana is a wolf. Offering up a wolf to be "cleared" is a great move, but you don't make it on a night where the seer could "accidentally" get lynched. Unless everybody else with votes at that moment, including Mauboy, was a wolf, I don't see it.

We rarely ever get as good a lead as Lathum's on Jackal on D2. I don't really see any reason to take a pot shot at someone else with that in our pocket. Another seer scan and we'll have a really strong start to the game.

I am not convinced that Jackal is bad. Sure, it is the best lead we have at this point but the justification of him being a wolf does not add up. Lathum could be a night one target in any game.

In fact, it leads me to believe that mau is more than likely not the seer. Why would the target not be him? Surely the wolves would prefer to kill off the seer instead of a solid player, who may or may not have a role.

That being said, I think either mau or the jackal is a wolf. I am just not sure which one yet.

GE, whether Mau is the seer or not, he's most likely not targeted last night. The wolves would have to assume he would be guarded with a then unrevealed bg.

A metagamey lynch, woo. :p

I get your point, but still, it would've been a bad move, and selling me down the river, after they'd already lost one wolf. Just bad move all around. You'll all see I'm telling the truth, and chalk it up to "oh, well it was a good lead". But man, this annoys me.

Or in the event Jackal is a wolf, they knew the BG and knew Lathum would be likely to protect Mau.

Which would still have gotten me killed the next day, because Lathum can still talk..

I'm going to laugh and eat popcorn while the wolves tear you apart and Lathum and I win the race. :)

You have a point. I don't guess that crossed my mind. I am still not convinced that Jackal is a wolf and I think we could potentially waste a day of voting history.

This is true, but we did not know the specifics at the time. Still, this is something to consider and the first piece of information that is a possible reason to not vote you.

The thing I don't get? Why DIDN'T Lathum protect the seer? Who plays with games like that, with the BG role? It is something that has bugged me since the get-go.

Now, it would take a tremendously gutsy wolf move AND the real BG would for some reason need to stay silent, so for those reasons, I expect Lathum is telling the truth. I can't see why the real BG would stay silent, and we have the evidence that no one died last night to back up what Lathum said.

But, yeah, I am struggling a bit with the fact our BG had a pretty good idea who the seer was and chose not to protect him. It may have ended up being the right choice here, but that concerns me going forward. I certainly hope Lathum protects the seer tonight.