+1 :)

I don't like Crimsonfoxes ( who will from now on be known as CF), moving his vote off PB late.

I don't like your late vote for me. I personally think he looks like a genius for moving his vote.

I'm off to pour another Captain and Coke, catch you guys later.

Off to play some more of my dynasty. Hopefully we'll learn something tomorrow.

i moved my vote because I wanted to USE it. Only reason I voted for PB was so I didn't die.(as I previously said). But it seems you're going to jump on my case no matter what I say. And if I were a wolf, it would be BETTER for me if I kept my vote on PB or moved it to Kwhit. Keeping it to PB makes more sense since a move to Kwhit for no reason would be really suspicious, but I voted for saldana, because he has been on my suspect list.

All right, I'm off for the night most likely.

You can't deny that your move could be looked at as an attempt to get heat off PB once Saldana got a few votes.

The other role in play is the distractor that could've been used against one of Kwhit's votes.

Your vote didn't really get used though since it was only the 2nd vote on Saldana.

I understand not wanting to vote for someone you don't really believe to be a wolf, but moving to Saldana there was a non-vote really.

Neither PB or Kwhit are the love/hate guy, because I am. Might as well tell, since it doesn't provide a significant benefit to the villagers because it's not a "good" role.

I know two people on each of my love and hate lists so far, but at this point I plan to keep that to myself since the love/hate doesn't correspond to wolf/villager.

I'll go ahead and clear this up. I picked crimsonfox over path because i misread the vengeful god role. I thought it was the second voter period, not the same voter putting out a second vote. And I wasn't worried about getting lynched anyways because I have never been lynched early in a game (and anyone who has played with me can verify this), so that's why i didnt do the self preservation thing. Simple.

So all in all not a good day again, but at least we only lost one role. too bad guys, we have to pick it up

Sucks. GL Village!

Not true. At the time it was the 3rd vote on Saldana and 3 was the highest number of votes on anyone. So I used my vote against someone that I suspected was a wolf. Granted there was a kwhit bandwagon happening that was probably going to a nonvote anyway. But I didn't believe in a kwhit vote. I don't feel voting for someone just because many others are is a reason to vote unless it keeps me alive. (which is why I voted for PB in the first place. (for the millionth time).

sorry to have missed all the fun last night...i was out til almost 9 and had a raid scheduled almost as soon as I got in.

i would agree that the lack of movement to save either Kwhit or PB probably means they are both clean, so they each move up a bit

dubb, i will explain myself one more time...i agreed with the concept of voting you yesterday morning because you had not voted the previous day (nor explained why). i myself did not vote for you because i voted for you on day one (out of sheer nostalgia) and am not quite ready to risk triggering the "die when you vote for someone a second time" mechanic that is still out there. once you came in and said you messed up the deadline time, any reason I DID have for agreeing with votes for you went out the window.

that said, if you would like to persist with having a hardon for me, I will have to reconsider my risk assessment regarding a 2nd vote for you.

as far as CF goes, the logic process leaves alot to be desired from my book, starting with the fact that he threw out and then proceeded to do absolutely NOTHING except backpedal away from it...if you were having such an "aha" moment, why didnt you vote for Autumn?

There are a couple ways I'm thinking of going today. Obviously one is back to Hoops, although it is for little more than putting the early vote out there on me.

Real Deal, what made you vote for me over KWhit last night when you voted?

Using this, I'm hoping that we've had a scan on Path or Lathum, because if one is bad, so is the other. Not catching that could be a big problem

Lathum, you've put out two fairly important late votes in the first two nights (which is not out of character for you necessarily) but I'm curious why DT over Hoops N1 and why me over KWhit N2? Even speaking hypothetically, if I'm good, then you are 0-2 on pretty tight votes, and I mean that more than a bad voting record (because lots of us are probably 0-2) but the importance of your votes is key as well.

After last night's vote, I still favor the idea that there was no save move, which likely points to KWhit's innocence as well as mine. Something that is making vote analysis rough though is the number of outlier votes we continue to have, rather than two or three condensed candidates. Here is where we might have another wolf or two hiding out, because why get into the middle of the battle if you can avoid it.

HELL, my short list of votes will be RealDeal, Hoops, or somebody that has cast a couple of truly insignificant votes.

I agree with this, particularly since none of the main candidates have been any that gave me any gut feel at all. If we've had four villager main candidates the last two nights i think it's likely the wolves are spread out on other candidates for the most part. I will likely look there for a vote also.

In fact I may go back to Schmidty, whose day one vote made me wonder. So, fair warning, Schmidty. I didn't add you in the mix yesterday since you were going to be gone all day.

Can someone explain the argument why the tie last night suggests that PB and KWhit are both villagers?

I can speak with personal experience towards Day 1; a villager died and I know I'm a villager. And while I appreciate the sentiment that some (Autumn, at least) have in believing this, I'm not sure I grasp the argument for why D2 was villager vs villager.

for me it was the fact that no one knew it was going to be a tie...the tie was generated by a padded vote somewhere, so it looked as if Kwhit was going to go and no one started juggling votes around to keep him alive...maybe it doesnt do so much to make me feel better about PB, but i would have expected the wolves to try to keep one of their own (kwhit)alive, and I didnt see that.

I think they're saying just because there weren't any last moment moves to save anyone (besides possibly Lathum's which we can assume was up and up). I'm not sure that means a lot, because I'd be afraid as a wolf in that situation to make a move and put a target on me.

Especially given the question marks surrounding results, it makes it dicier for a wolf to make a last minute save which might not work. Another thought is they may have the role that caused the vote to come out the way it did, and may have been confident of their result (though I find this less likely given the other possible complications).

However, they may have known it was going to be a tie because they're the distractor or some such. As I said above, it would be chancy, but we shouldn't assume they don't have info just because we don't.

People keep saying there was no late movement except CF DID switch off PB relatively late, I know he gave some sore of explanation for that, and lets be real, the wolves always hit a point where they don't want to risk a move. CF being a new player may not realize that, but more experienced wolves would.

I am a little busy currently, but am going to delve back into that vote a little later.

This IMO makes no sense and would be a huge waste of a scan, if anything clearing one of us hurts the village right now.

For one, it would be an insanely stupid move on a lot of levels for us to try and pull it off as wolves. There really is nothing to gain from it.

Path and I are linked for the rest of the game, at some point our allegiances will come out. Right now the only way that can happen is if one of us is scanned or if one of us is killed. In essence that gives us a solid COT of 2. Not great but better than nothing. Now granted we arent 100% in the clear, the wolves know this, so why would they kill us and clear the other. Not only would they be clearing the other but they will basically be killing vanilla villagers instead of role hunting. IMO wasting a scan on e or Path just to prove something that is likely true and eventually will have to be true is a poor play when there are so many other roles out there that could be found out.

This - the wolves would take a tie rather than lose one of their own. If they controlled one of the voting powers, they knew that they were improving their lot in life.

KWhit made the late "save self" switch as well - I would expect a wolf with that power to try and save it for the very last minute. In KWhit's case, that was one minute before deadline. Does self-preservation make him a wolf? Nope, but this was definitely "late movement".

PurdueBrad made a late move to switch his vote, saying he was worried about vote padding - again, a late self preservation vote is something both villagers and wolves do. But this is still "late movement".

My main issue here is that the tone of the thread so far seems to be giving a lot more trust/leeway to the two main guys in the vote on a day filled with big-time runs. I'm not saying that they are the only two we look at, but they are certainly both still on my list right now.

Lathum, did your PM confirm that Path brought you back? Based on the fact that his role has gone unchallenged, I assume this is the case. But figured that I might as well ask you the question.

No it did not.

dola- to tack oo to what I was saying earlier, the PAth/ Lathum relationship is obviously going to have to be looked at at some point. Likely when there is a fake reveal.

so hoops, are you suggesting that we actually had wolf v wolf yesterday?

Saldana, I doubt with all the runs we saw yesterday that it ended up wolf vs wolf. But I'm guessing that we had 1-2 wolves in the mix at some point during the day; just not sure if they made the "final pairing".

I'm hoping to carve out some time later this morning to try and get a feel for all of the people who were in the race at one point and see who felt like they were being "saved".

I think that exercise will be a heck of a lot easier after we have our first wolf in hand, but I'm going to give it a go today and see where it takes me.

Here are my ramblings while looking over the voting records from yesterday. I'm simply writing out what happened for my benefit, and musing over what it might mean if different players were wolves. It might be of some use to someone else.

Day Two:

(230) – Abe Sargent votes ntndeadon (ntndeacon 1)
(238) – ntndeacon votes EagleFan (ntndeacon 1, EagleFan 1)
(240) – Darth Vilus votes J23 (ntndeacon 1, EagleFan 1, J23 1)
(247) – EagleFan votes Autumn (ntndeacon 1, EagleFan 1, J23 1, Autumn 1)
(248) – RealDeal votes EagleFan (EagleFan 2, ntndeacon 1, J23 1, Autumn 1)
(249) – Abe Sargent unvotes ntndeacon, votes dubb93 (EagleFan 2, J23 1, Autumn 1, dubb93 1)
(254) – Lathum is reborn
(257) – dubb93 votes saldana (EagleFan 2, J23 1, Autumn 1, dubb93 1, saldana 1)
(266) – hoops voted PurdueBrad (EagleFan 2, J23 1, Autumn 1, dubb93 1, saldana 1, PurdueBrad 1)
(270) – path claims ressurector
(284) – Lathum votes CrimsonFox (EagleFan 2, J23 1, Autumn 1, dubb93 1, saldana 1, PurdueBrad 1, CrimsonFox 1)
(287) – path12 votes CrimsonFox (EagleFan 2, CrimsonFox 2, J23 1, Autumn 1, dubb93 1, saldana 1, PurdueBrad 1)
(297) – saldana votes CrimsonFox (CrimsonFox 3, EagleFan 2, J23 1, Autumn 1, dubb93, 1, saldana 1, PurdueBrad 1)
(298) – RendeR votes Kwhit (CrimsonFox 3, EagleFan 2, J23 1, Autumn 1, dubb93 1, saldana 1, PurdueBrad 1, Kwhit 1)
(304) – EagleFan unvotes Autumn, votes PurdueBrad (CrimsonFox 3, EagleFan 2, PurdueBrad 2, J23 1, dubb93 1, saldana 1, Kwhit 1)
(315) – PurdueBrad votes CrimsonFox (CrimsonFox 4, EagleFan 2, PurdueBrad 2, J23 1, dubb93 1, saldana 1, Kwhit 1)
(319) – J23 votes PurdueBrad (CrimsonFox 4, PurdueBrad 3, EagleFan 2, J23 1, dubb93 1, saldana 1, Kwhit 1)
(321) – CrimsonFox votes PurdueBrad (CrimsonFox 4, PurdueBrad 4, EagleFan 2, J23 1, dubb93 1, saldana 1, Kwhit 1)
(335) – EagleFan unvoted PurdueBrad, votes Kwhit (CrimsonFox 4, PurdueBrad 3, EagleFan 2, Kwhit 2, J23 1, dubb93 1, saldana 1)
(344) – henry296 votes Kwhit (CrimsonFox 4, PurdueBrad 3, Kwhit 3, EagleFan 2, J23 1, dubb93 1, saldana 1)
(345) – path12 unvotes CrimsonFox (CrimsonFox 3, PurdueBrad 3, Kwhit 3, EagleFan 2, J23 1, dubb93 1, saldana 1)
(346) – Autumn votes Kwhit (Kwhit 4, CrimsonFox 3, PurdueBrad 3, EagleFan 2, J23 1, dubb93 1, saldana 1)
(349) – Kwhit votes saldana (Kwhit 4, CrimsonFox 3, PurdueBrad 3, EagleFan 2, saldana 2, J23 1, dubb93 1)
(350) – PurdueBrad unvotes CrimsonFox (Kwhit 4, PurdueBrad 3, CrimsonFox 2, EagleFan 2, saldana 2, J23 1, dubb93 1)
(361) – CrimsonFox unvotes PurdueBrad, votes saldana (Kwhit 4, saldana 3, PurdueBrad 2, CrimsonFox 2, EagleFan 2, J23 1, dubb93 1)
(363) – PurdueBrad votes J23 (Kwhit 4, saldana 3, PurdueBrad 2, CrimsonFox 2, EagleFan 2, J23 2, dubb93 1)
(366) – path12 votes J23 (Kwhit 4, saldana 3, J23 3, PurdueBrad 2, CrimsonFox 2, EagleFan 2, dubb93 1)
(368) – RealDeal unvotes EagleFan, votes PurdueBrad (Kwhit 4, saldana 3, J23 3, PurdueBrad 3, CrimsonFox 2, EagleFan 1, dubb93 1)
(384) – Lathum unvotes CrimsonFox, votes PurdueBrad (Kwhit 4, PurdueBrad 4, saldana 3, J23 3, CrimsonFox 1, EagleFan 1, dubb93 1)
(386) – Schmidty votes Kwhit (Kwhit 5, PurdueBrad 4, saldana 3, J23 3, CrimsonFox 1, EagleFan 1, dubb93 1)
(399) – PurdueBrad unvotes J23, votes Kwhit (Kwhit 6, PurdueBrad 4, saldana 3, J23 2, CrimsonFox 1, EagleFan 1, dubb93 1)
(402) – Kwhit unvotes saldana, votes PurdueBrad (Kwhit 6, PurdueBrad 5, saldana 2, J23 2, CrimsonFox 1, EagleFan 1, dubb93 1)

The PurdueBrad runs:

Hoops introduces PB, EF brings him into the mix, J23 and then CrimsonFox push him into the lead. EF unvotes PB, CF later unvotes PB. Then RealDeal pushes PB back into contention, Lathum puts PB tied for the lead. KWhit adds another vote later to put PB one behind him.

If PB was bad, EF would look bad also, as his unvote pushed CF ahead of PB for the time being. CF's unvote could look bad, but if they were both wolves I don't see CF voting for PB in the first place when they're both in the lead.

EagleFan:

EF got two early votes and then sat there at 2 the rest of the day. I think this was a case of people trying to avoid an early runaway vote, I know that's how I felt, but could be of interest that he never gained any traction.

CrimsonFox runs:

Lathum introduces CF, Path and Saldana quickly follow pushing him into the lead. PB follows later, increasing CF's lead to 4-2. When it is tied 4-4 CF/PB EF unvotes PB to leave CF in the lead alone. That could be of interest. Path unvotes CF which leaves him tied for the lead but not ahead, 3-3. I vote Kwhit, putting him in hte lead of CF. PB unvotes CF, dropping him from contention. Lathum unvotes CF late.

I suspect what we have here is "new guy syndrome" where he gets some flack for his playing style, which we are not used to, and then people stay away from him for that reason. I know i didn't vote for him because I felt this way. If he is a wolf, then Path, PB and I would look bad.

KWhit:

KWhit is added by Render partway through the day then sits at 1 until EF adds him into the mix, moving away from PB. Henry follows, pushing KWhit into contention and my vote puts him into the lead in a 4-3-3 split with CF and PB. He sits there for a long time until Lathum puts PB into a tie. Schmidty and PB put KWhit back into the lead.

Interesting that PB voted J23 when a vote for Saldana or KWhit would have been a safer move to keep himself alive. If KWhit is bad then there is a long stretch where he was in the lead and we can look at the movement to see who might have been trying to create a new contender, vs. who could have saved him but didn't.

Interestingly if both PB and KWhit were bad then there last minute movements, plus Schmidty's could be intended to look good when KWhit came up bad.

Saldana:

Dubb votes Saldana early , he sits at one for a long time until KWhit bumps him up to 2, and then CF follows to put Saldana at 3 and a contender. PB and Path vote J23 bumping him into the mix, instead of following on Saldana (I choose not to follow on him as well). Saldana ends up sitting at 3.

PB,

I voted for your because I felt that between PB and Kwhit, you were a more likely wolf. The reason I felt that you were a more likely wolf is because I found Eaglefan's unvoting of you in favor of Kwhit fishy, since you were both in contention at the time.

thanks autumn!

Autumn, not sure if this is meant for response or not, but I'll explain this.

I don't like runs, I had just been the victim of one and the second that momentum stopped a bit, KWhit became a victim of one. Runs very rarely are village-engineered or lead to positive village outcomes. I started looking at the people that had voted me and then Path makes a comment, not sure what post number but I will find it, that says he is wary of some of the voters on me. I immediately jumped at the chance to throw one of them under the bus to preserve myself and avoid being part of a run on another player. Also though, I will admit that I misinterpreted Path's role until this morning. I thought his was one of the "good" roles and this did slightly influence my willingness to jump off from what he said. Once it became clear that didn't have legs, I did what I could to ensure that I could stay in the game.

Thanks for the answer RD

This is post 360 from Path and the one that nudged my desire to vote for one of my voters.

Thanks PB, I am interested in people's explanations and reactions.

I don't know if anyone else cares about this, but here is a list of layoff or inconsequential votes from the two days. I consider these to be votes for a candidate that has 2 or less:

Saldana: Dubb (d1), Crimson (d2)
ntn: No Vote (d1), EagleFan (d2)
Path: Darth (d1), J23 (d2)
Darth: Crimson (d1), J23 (d2)
Dubb: No Vote (d1), Saldana (d2)
Crimson: Darth (d1), Saldana (d2)
Jackal: PB (d1), No Vote (d2)

In a game of this size and with how spread out we've seen some of our vote counts, we could certainly have a wolf or two laying off. Be curious to watch this same group in today's vote.

PB, to be clear, these are their votes at the end of the day? That is helpful, though I'd want to look back for some context on each.

Frankly, I didn't even remember Jackal was playing.

I think there may be a couple of things going on here:
1.) People are afraid of making too many voting switches because they don't want to be the victim of the "Vengeful God"
2.) The timing of the vote certainly counts. J23, for example, was a legit candidate yesterday up until maybe the last 15 minutes or so.
3.) Some people just don't have a chance to come back in and change their vote near the deadline.

I agree with the notion that the wolves spread out their votes and they can't all be on the leaders. So this is worthwhile to track (even with item #1) but I'm not sure that this is necessarily the "right" list.

Not much time to post at the moment but I'll throw in some random thoughts.


The PB run after my vote makes me uneasy. My overall feel has PB leaning towards villager, just a gut reaction so far though.


My KWhit vote has been explained, figuring there may be a wolf in the DT voters and I can rule myself out of that equation and it's probably safe to rule Lathum out (I can't imagine that path would make that play as a wolf).

Correct. And I forgot about Jackal as well.

Quick thoughts on votes:
#248 - RealDeal is the first to push a candidate to two votes (EagleFan). However, with RD proclaiming the Love/Hate role there is no role-based insight to be gleaned from this.

#297 - Saldana follows Lathum + Path onto CrimsonFox, vaulting him into the lead. We already have discussed the Lathum/Path relationship, but Saldana seems eager to follow them here without knowledge on the candidate that they are voting. This sure seems like the kind of thing where a wolf (Saldana) might want to be an early voter on another wolf (CrimsonFox) in the event that there is some evidence presented later.

#298 - 30+ minutes after Saldana's vote, RendeR takes vote in another direction by introducing KWhit as a candidate.

#304 - between RendeR's vote and this post, both Path and I had said that we would likely move our votes to different candidates later if circumstances dictated (lack of Lathum argument for Path, lack of sufficient votes on PB for me). EF then changes candidates and puts vote on PB to move him into the race. Again, this feels like potential save on Crimson Fox if he is a wolf.


To be continued, but right now CrimsonFox feels like a pretty important guy to understand. If he is a villager, then "nothing to see here" on these votes, but if he is a wolf then there are several of the above moves become a lot more interesting.

I don't agree with this particular evidence. J23 was only a legit candidate at the end of hte day, he only had 1 vote until the last seven votes.

But I agree, as I mentioned earlier, that we have to look at the context with these votes. I'll try to do that later.

Saldana: Dubb (d1), Crimson (d2)
ntn: No Vote (d1), EagleFan (d2)
Path: Darth (d1), J23 (d2)
Darth: Crimson (d1), J23 (d2)
Dubb: No Vote (d1), Saldana (d2)
Crimson: Darth (d1), Saldana (d2)
Jackal: PB (d1), No Vote (d2)

Looking at Day 2 voting only:

Saldana's vote on Crimson was meaningful at the time and CF was a real candidate for a large portion of the day.

NTN was the second voter of the day, so by definition meaningful. Assuming he was out all day--if he was around this is questionable.

Path voted J23 late trying to push him into contender status. I'm not sure what I think about this vote, could be considered a throwaway but seems more like an attempt to get a different target out there.

Darth voted J23 very early, meaningful, but then J23 went nowhere until the very end of the day. If Darth was around this seems like a wasted vote for most of the day.

Dubb is first on Saldana early. No movement there for a long time and then some traction at the end of the day. Again, if he was around early seemed like a waste.

CF votes Saldana, this was a meaningful vote at the time and only lost meaning at the very end.

Jackal's no-vote obviously had no meaning.

I don't need fair warning, papa. This is WW. I can take it.

Give me an in-depth reason why you suspect me. It was day 1. Day 1.

Now day 1 voting:

Saldana voted Dubb, first vote, middle of the voting. Schmidty followed but no one else. This was indeed a dead vote it seems if he was around later.

NTN's no vote is a no vote.

Path votes Darth early. Darth was in contention for part of hte day but then faded away never getting more than two votes. If he was around later, this was a dead vote.

Darth votes CF, CF never gets more than one vote I believe. Dead vote.

Dubb's no vote is a no vote.

Crimson votes Darth early to put him in the lead, it never goes further. If he was around later this was a dead vote.

Jackal votes PB mid-voting and he never gets another vote. Dead vote.

Just the way you popped in, threw a vote on a candidate who hadn't had one until a couple minutes before with no real reason. It just seemed ... odd.