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-   -   WW Dukes Versus Hunters (GAME OVER!!--See Post #1387) (http://forums.operationsports.com/fofc//showthread.php?t=90222)

EagleFan 04-23-2015 09:33 PM

We still have cheek and bug (and myself) with the odd votes out on that day.

EagleFan 04-23-2015 09:40 PM

timmae was briefly tied for the lead on day one but votes off him seem to be because of his availability.

font makes a semi late move onto Zinto but at that point it was village/village/village so that really doesn't tell us anything. Not sure a wolf really cares which one is lynched at that point as there was no obvious save being made.

EagleFan 04-23-2015 09:48 PM

The wolf kills were JAG, a failed attempt on MartinD (which I am now forced to believe that he knew about it) and Jackal.

Does that tell us anything? All could have been seer hunting. I can see the argument for seer hunting with MartinD as it seems the bodyguard came to that conclusion as well.

I think we have some mistakes by the wolves and some very fortunate events for us. The odds that MartinD just happened to be protecting font on that Vaimes kill attempt made us crazy but it looks like it made them just as crazy. Looks like it was just blind luck. Then the bodyguard protect on MartinD. The good thing is that with anyone knowing they were protected it will let us know if there was a conversion so that won't be a mystery.

EagleFan 04-23-2015 09:50 PM

Now for timmae being duked to today, that was another very fortunate event. The worst possible wolf for them to lose. Maybe it was just a foretelling of what ill happen to the Blackhawks tonight... ;)

EagleFan 04-23-2015 10:24 PM

Okay, it's quiet, headache has been building, time to sign off. Will try to get online tomorrow but my morning is booked with meetings (sometimes I really hate my life.. ;) ) but will try to get on at lunch. If I can manage a work from home I will be able to post better at lunch as I have been avoiding using my work computer as things have been real tense since the buyout and it seems everything is being watched (waiting to see someone standing outside the restrooms with a stopwatch when people enter). Just about to hit 10 years at this job, already getting screwed by the buyout as I would have picked up another week of vacation starting this month based on what we used to get but not with the new company, I have 5 more years to wait for that...

Sorry, this post turned into a venting thread.

cheekimonk 04-23-2015 11:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan (Post 3022724)
We still have cheek and bug (and myself) with the odd votes out on that day.


I posted that I was out in meetings from the late morning til after deadline. I never had a chance to switch it.

Narcizo 04-24-2015 01:50 AM

You see Shoveler. What you did is exactly what the villager shouldn't do in these situations.

I apologise for my overall crap play yesterday. Particularly the part where I suggested that the seer take a shot if we didn't hit a wolf, which is a shockingly ill-thought out suggestion. However the fact remains that this game is starting to cost me sleep and that's my warning sign that I should dial it back.

I think I should be considered a lynch target. I even don't find it too far-fetched to suggest that I'd make up all that stuff about Martin being a wolf yesterday even if I was a wolf. It's an awful lot of work to make just to be proved wrong by the first person who showed up, but hey, its possible. I've been known to put in that kind of effort before.

For what it's worth (little) I find it more likely that Autumn is a wolf than Font. Font is Strider and I'm Frodo, which means that Autumn must be Sauron. At the moment though I think they both might be village. Don't think wolf-Font takes a shot at someone who probably wasn't a power-role when her wolf buddy has just been killed. Yes, it's reckless for a villager to do that but it still seems more villagy to me.

Where are we at? 10 people - 2 Wolves, 1 cultist and 7 villagers. 2 of the villagers are power roles. I tend to agree with Font that the seer should reveal today, if they have any scan result that we don't know. We´ve had a huge amount of luck with the wolves not hitting the power roles but the ranks are narrowing and I don't know if we want to roll the dice on that for one more night if the seer has anything of value to add. I think the wolves will be able to narrow the field right down on the power roles at the moment.

Of course, it's possible that the seer doesn't have any scan results - I've been there, done that as a seer. They might have scanned people who are now dead or had scans fail because of lynching. I guess that's a judgement call in that case. Just bear in mind that there's probably a good chance that the wolves are going to get you. They have a much better chance of picking you out than the bodyguard does because they know who the wolves are and may have an idea about the cultist.

We still get two cleared villagers with a seer and bodyguard reveal. I'm presuming Shoveler isn't one of them as I don't think he'd take the risk of duking if he were. So that's three that are as good as cleared. I'll send an item to Shoveler that might help the seer if he chooses to reveal. So if the seer and bodyguard reveal the BG can protect the seer tonight to give us another scan. Maybe the seer gets brutalled but at least that means we've got another wolf then. Of course, the bodyguard shouldn't reveal until after the seer has.

Narcizo 04-24-2015 01:57 AM

Day One

13:31 #80 timmae votes cheeki (1)
13:36 #81 Vaimes votes font (1)
13:36 #82 Eagle votes timmae (1)
13:37 #85 Martin votes Shoveler (1)
13:37 #85 Vaimes unvotes Font, votes Timmae (2) / Timmae 2
13:40 #89 JAG vote Jackal (1)
13:48 #95 Shoveler votes Vaimes (1)
13:51 #99 Grover votes Narcizo (1)
14:32 #104 Cheeki votes Raven (1)
14:56 #106 Raven votes Jackal (2) / Timmae, Jackal 2
15:08 #108 Narcizo votes Zinto (1)
15:35 #113 Britrock votes Shoveler (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler 2
15:38 #115 JAG unvotes Jackal (1), votes Raven (1) / Timmae, Shoveler 2
16.51 #134 Jackal votes Grover (1)
18:57 #148 JAG unvotes Raven (0), votes Fonti (1)

20:28 #154 Timmae unvotes cheeki (0), votes Jackal (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler 2
20:00 #163 Zinto votes Vaimes (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
22:52 #178 Bug votes Font (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Font, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
07:06 #187 JAG unvotes Fonti (1) / Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
07:37 #190 Cheeki unvotes Raven (0), votes Fonti (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Font, Shoveler; Vaimes 2
08:03 #197 Jag votes cheeki (1)
08:14 #202 Grover unvotes Narc (0), votes Fonti (3) / Font 3, Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
09:32 #210 Font votes Grover (2) / Font 3, Timmae, Jackal, Grover, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
10:09 #229 Jackal unvotes Grover (1) / Font 3, Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
10:27 #237 Jackal votes timmae (3) / Font, Timmae 3, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
11:54 #264 Autumn votes cheeki (2) / Font, Timmae 3, Jackal, Shoveler, cheeki, Vaimes 2
11:55 #268 Grover unvotes Font (2), votes Martin (1) / Timmae 3, Font, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki, Vaimes 2
12.07 #276 Jackal unvotes timmae (2) / Timmae, Font, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki, Vaimes 2

12:31 #283 Jackal votes Zinto (2) / Timmae, Font, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki, Zinto, Vaimes 2
12:40 #293 Cheeki unvotes Font (1), votes Vaimes (3) / Vaimes 3, Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki, Zinto 2
14:08 #310 Grover unvotes Martin (0)
14:15 #312 Vaimes unvotes Timmae, votes Zinto (3) / Vaimes, Zinto 3, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki 2
14:17 #316 JAG unvotes cheeki (1), votes Zinto (4) / Zinto 4, Vaimes 3, Jackal, Shoveler 2
14:18 #317 Britrock unvotes Shoveler (1), votes Jackal (3) / Zinto 4, Vaimes, Jackal 3
14:21 #321 Fonti unvotes Grover (1), votes Zinto (5) / Zinto 5, Vaimes, Jackal 3
14:26 #326 Grover votes Zinto (6) / Zinto 6, Jackal , Vaimes 3
14:26 #327 Shoveler unvotes Vaimes (2), votes Jackal (4) / Zinto 5, Jackal 4, Vaimes 2
14:59 #343 Autumn unvotes Cheeki (0), votes Zinto (7) / Zinto 7, Jackal 4, Vaimes 2
15:52 #358 Martin unvotes Shoveler (0), votes Jackal (5) /Zinto 7, Jackal 5, Vaimes 2
15:57 #363 Zinto unvotes Vaimes (1) / Zinto 7, Jackal 4


Zinto (7)-- Narcizo (108), The Jackal (283), Vaimes (312), JAG (316), fontisian (321), Grover (326), Autumn (343)
The Jackal (5)-- Raven (106), timmae (154), britrock88 (317), Shoveler (327), MartinD (358)
Vaimes (1)-- cheekimonk (293)
timmae (1)-- EagleFan (82)
fontisian (1)-- MrBug708 (178)

Narcizo 04-24-2015 02:36 AM

Day Two

21:36 #464 Autumn votes Cheeki (1)
22:13 #480 Cheeki votes Martin (1)
08:15 #495 Timmae votes Martin (2) / Martin 2
08:24 #496 Grover votes Cheeki (2) / Cheeki 2
08:38 #500 Eagle votes Martin (3) / Martin 3, Cheeki 2
10:25 #521 Grover unvotes Cheeki (1) / Martin 3
13:05 #572 Shoveler votes Autumn (1)
13:20 #577 Grover votes MrBug (1)
13:22 #579 Martin votes Cheeki (2) / Martin 3, Cheeki 2
13:29 #580 Narcizo votes Autumn (2) / Martin 3, Cheeki, Autumn 2
13:49 #584 Cheeki unvotes Martin (2), votes Autumn (3) / Autumn 3, Cheeki, Martin 2

14:27 #592 Grover unvotes MrBug (0)
14:35 #595 Raven votes Martin (3) / Autumn, Martin 3, Cheeki 2
14:52 #598 Grover votes Autumn (4) / Autumn 4, Martin 3, Cheeki 2
15:22 #608 Britrock votes Martin (4) /Autumn, Martin 4, Cheeki 2
15:31 #611 Cheeki unvotes Autumn (3), votes Martin (5) / Martin 5, Autumn 3, Cheeki 2
15:46 #621 Autumn unvotes Cheeki (1), votes Martin (6) / Martin 6, Autumn 3
15:41 #629 Bug votes Autumn (4) / Martin 6, Autumn 4
15:53 #632 Martin unvotes Cheeki (0), votes Autumn (5) / Martin 6, Autumn 5
15:56 #637 Narcizo unvotes Autumn (4), votes Martin (7) / Martin 7, Autumn 4
15:58 #644 Shoveler unvotes Autumn (3), votes Martin (8) / Martin 8, Autumn 3

FINAL Day Two Vote Tally

MartinD (8) -- timmae (495), EagleFan (500), Raven (595), britrock88 (608), cheekimonk (611), Autumn (621), Narcizo (637), Shoveler (644)
Autumn (3) -- Grover (598), MrBug708 (629), MartinD (632)

No Vote: The Jackal, Vaimes
Unable to Vote: fontisian

Narcizo 04-24-2015 02:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrBug708 (Post 3022690)
It's still a gain for the wolves, though, no?


Quote:

Originally Posted by fontisian (Post 3022696)
No. The wolves lose a night kill, which they cannot afford with the seer and bodyguard still slive.


I generally agree with font except with the caveat that if the cultist has already been scanned then the wolves get another cunning if they convert him.

I still don't see the gain for wolf-font to take a shot. I guess if she presumes she's getting lynched today anyway she might as well take someone out. But then surely she would target Shoveler (Duke, pretty much cleared) or a potential power role instead of Autumn. I don't think it seems likely Autumn has a power role.

The bit where she claims that she thinks Brit hinted a scan of Autumn but she took the shot to prove it (or whatever), on the other hand, seems bat-shit insane.

Narcizo 04-24-2015 05:00 AM

Day Three

11:21 #799 Cheeki votes fonti (1)
11:38 #806 Autumn votes Fonti (2) / Fonti 2
11:44 #807 Shoveler votes Fonti (3) / Font 3
12:07 #815 Jackal votes Eagle (1)
12:15 #821 Fonti votes Eagle (2) / Font 3, Eagle 2
12:33 #844 Grover votes Eagle (3) / Font, Eagle 3
13:12 #859 Timmae votes Eagle (4) / Eagle 4, Font 3
13:44 #870 Bug votes Eagle (5) / Eagle 5, Font 3
15:15 #885 Narcizo votes Fonti (4) / Eagle 5, Font 4
15:27 #886 Britrock votes Fonti (5) / Eagle, Font 5
15:45 #890 Raven votes Fonti (6) / Font 6, Eagle 5
15:59 #901 Jackal unvotes Eagle, votes Fonti (7) / Font 7, Eagle 4


FINAL Day Three Vote Tally

fontisian (7)-- cheekimonk (799), Autumn (806), Shoveler (807), Narcizo (885), britrock88 (886), Raven (890), The Jackal (901)
EagleFan (4)-- fontisian (821), Grover (844), timmae (859), MrBug708 (870)

Yet to Vote: EagleFan

cheekimonk 04-24-2015 05:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Narcizo (Post 3022807)
The bit where she claims that she thinks Brit hinted a scan of Autumn but she took the shot to prove it (or whatever), on the other hand, seems bat-shit insane.


My vote is still on font, for now, but just pointing out that we don't lynch people around these parts just for being bat-shit insane.

Shoveler 04-24-2015 06:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Narcizo (Post 3022799)
You see Shoveler. What you did is exactly what the villager shouldn't do in these situations.


In a normal game I would totally agree. In this game with all the dukes left I figured coming at them from the side may be the best approach.

But you may be right, maybe that was a bad play. Yesterday it felt like the odds were stacked against us and perhaps I could deliver us a miracle. But with two hunter vets taking terrible shots and then I pulled a wolf I guess I'm the least bad of the bad plays made thus far in this game.

Narcizo 04-24-2015 07:22 AM

I was joking.

Well, not really. It was a bad play. But we deserve a bit of luck I think.

Grover 04-24-2015 07:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shoveler (Post 3022818)
In a normal game I would totally agree. In this game with all the dukes left I figured coming at them from the side may be the best approach.

But you may be right, maybe that was a bad play. Yesterday it felt like the odds were stacked against us and perhaps I could deliver us a miracle. But with two hunter vets taking terrible shots and then I pulled a wolf I guess I'm the least bad of the bad plays made thus far in this game.


I have zero issue with what you did. You're a good guy in my book right now.

cheekimonk 04-24-2015 07:35 AM

That was out of character for font (generally a very good player), but there was some tension there with Autumn, too, and if nothing else font is emotional. I like my original instinct:

unvote fontisian
vote Narcizo

Narcizo 04-24-2015 07:57 AM

Ok I've read through the thread and have noticed a couple of things. My trust list is something like:

Shoveler
Raven
EagleFan
MrBug
Cheekimonk
Grover
Britrock

I've left Autumn and font off the list because I don't trust my judgement about either of them. My vote will currently go with Shoveler.

Narcizo 04-24-2015 08:00 AM

As in I will vote for whoever Shoveler votes for.

Grover 04-24-2015 08:16 AM

So far... I may have missed something...

britrock88 - Raven (926)
fontisian - Autumn (929), Grover (956)
Narcizo - cheekimonk (1016)

Cheeki went Narc originally on Post 941, but flopped to font on post 971 after the attempted shooting of Autumn. Cheek then flipped back to Narc on post 1016 by saying that font had lost her mind and that was unlike her.

Cheeki is quickly moving up my suspicious list.

cheekimonk 04-24-2015 08:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grover (Post 3022829)
So far... I may have missed something...

britrock88 - Raven (926)
fontisian - Autumn (929), Grover (956)
Narcizo - cheekimonk (1016)

Cheeki went Narc originally on Post 941, but flopped to font on post 971 after the attempted shooting of Autumn. Cheek then flipped back to Narc on post 1016 by saying that font had lost her mind and that was unlike her.

Cheeki is quickly moving up my suspicious list.


Well, let me clarify then. It's so out of character and emotional that it muddles the picture on her. I still lean wolf on her, but I do on Narc and nothing's happened to muddy that up.

Grover 04-24-2015 09:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cheekimonk (Post 3022835)
Well, let me clarify then. It's so out of character and emotional that it muddles the picture on her. I still lean wolf on her, but I do on Narc and nothing's happened to muddy that up.


Okay. So what is your read on Shoveler with Narc saying he will follow Shoveler's vote?

Narcizo 04-24-2015 09:11 AM

Theoretically should we be looking to lynch the cultist if we suspect one or concentrating on wolves?

Grover 04-24-2015 09:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Narcizo (Post 3022837)
Theoretically should we be looking to lynch the cultist if we suspect one or concentrating on wolves?


Wolves. Game ends if we get the two wolves, even if the cultist remains, right?

I'd guess yhsy the wolves would rather spend their time finding the Seer/BG than trying to find the Cultist.

Shoveler 04-24-2015 09:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Narcizo (Post 3022837)
Theoretically should we be looking to lynch the cultist if we suspect one or concentrating on wolves?


At this point I would suggest we look at the wolves, and if we suspect who the cultist is the BG should protect that person from a night kill. We cannot afford the conversion.

I'll have some more thoughts later.. I need to run out this morning.

cheekimonk 04-24-2015 09:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grover (Post 3022836)
Okay. So what is your read on Shoveler with Narc saying he will follow Shoveler's vote?


Everyone reads Shoveler as town...which would make an excellent reason for a wolf to attach himself to him.

MrBug708 04-24-2015 09:39 AM

Checking in before testing starts. It's the last day of it so I'll be around more

Narcizo 04-24-2015 09:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fontisian (Post 3022645)
You are one of two possible wolves on the Zinto lynch and you did not claim yesterDay when I said was going to shoot you. Add in that I'm town, Shoveler's town, Raven, Grover and MrBug708 are probably town, the seer can claim and clear themselves and others, and the bodyguard, if necessary, can claim and clear themselves, and we're going to win this. There was no reason not to shoot.


Sorry but why are bug, grover and raven probably village?

Raven 04-24-2015 09:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cheekimonk (Post 3022840)
Everyone reads Shoveler as town...which would make an excellent reason for a wolf to attach himself to him.


Agreed.
I think it's out of character for Narc to say I'll vote with Shoveler, as if he trusts Shoveler's intuition over his own. Very sketchy.

Narcizo 04-24-2015 09:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raven (Post 3022850)
Agreed.
I think it's out of character for Narc to say I'll vote with Shoveler, as if he trusts Shoveler's intuition over his own. Very sketchy.


Yeah. You haven't played with me much. Its the friday. Or narkle-meltdown day as its known. Except it happened one day earlier this time. Probably because of the early deadline..

Grover 04-24-2015 10:02 AM

Gonna be out of the office for roughly 3-4 hours. Should be back for deadline

Chief Rum 04-24-2015 10:08 AM



Day Four Vote Tally (as of Post #1030)


fontisian (2)-- Autumn (929), Grover (957)
britrock88 (1)-- Raven (926)
Narcizo (1)-- cheekimonk (1016)

Yet to Vote: A Plethora


Narcizo 04-24-2015 10:20 AM

But if you want to know what my intuition has told me today

Font is a cultist and britrock and cheeki are wolves as she signaled them by not mentioning them as being probably town.

No! Wait! Autumn is a wolf, font is a villager, Britrock is the cultist. Autumn claims I'm good so I can be village choice of lynch tomorrow, while he argues for a different villager. Britrock emphasized that timmae was out of office on day one.

No! Actually fontisian is the cultist buying trust for wolf-Autumn.

Literally etc. etc.

So let me be the judge of who's intuition is more trustworthy thankyouverymuch.

britrock88 04-24-2015 10:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shoveler (Post 3022839)
At this point I would suggest we look at the wolves, and if we suspect who the cultist is the BG should protect that person from a night kill. We cannot afford the conversion.

I'll have some more thoughts later.. I need to run out this morning.


Over the seer???

britrock88 04-24-2015 10:25 AM

I'm caught up, and things make less sense than they did before. Does the group not think there's something to gain lynching into Font/Autumn? Because I think there is.

Raven 04-24-2015 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Narcizo (Post 3022861)
But if you want to know what my intuition has told me today

Font is a cultist and britrock and cheeki are wolves as she signaled them by not mentioning them as being probably town.

No! Wait! Autumn is a wolf, font is a villager, Britrock is the cultist. Autumn claims I'm good so I can be village choice of lynch tomorrow, while he argues for a different villager. Britrock emphasized that timmae was out of office on day one.

No! Actually fontisian is the cultist buying trust for wolf-Autumn.

Literally etc. etc.

So let me be the judge of who's intuition is more trustworthy thankyouverymuch.


So what you are saying is you are confused.
Well, we're all in the same boat.

cheekimonk 04-24-2015 10:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by britrock88 (Post 3022863)
I'm caught up, and things make less sense than they did before. Does the group not think there's something to gain lynching into Font/Autumn? Because I think there is.


I considered that, but at this point it feels like a rabbit hole. Maybe it's fatigue from thinking through all the events around font, but 2 of those involved were town and this kind of stuff is perfect for wolves to lay low while it keeps going deeper (a la timmae).

Shoveler 04-24-2015 10:36 AM

The duke/hunter mechanics of this game are throwing me for a loop. I'm not certain there is any justification for putting a known hunter on the block. If they are town, they can't duke. If they are a wolf, does the last remaining duke wolf reveal themselves for a save, probably not unless they have items that have already won the game for them.

The seer at this point either has good reads, or wasted reads. We can afford probably one mislynch and the game is over if the wolves have a hunter in reserve and the ammo clip. So I dont think the seer is that important going forward, and just mentioning the idea that the bodyguard should protect the cultist should put doubt into the minds of the wolves over where to go with their night kill if the seer reveals. Will the seer be protected or not?

If the cultist is found by the wolves, I'm guessing we are hosed, but I haven't run the actual scenarios at this point.

I dunno, my head is spinning.. need to reread the damn thread.

britrock88 04-24-2015 10:38 AM

Yeah, I can't shake that feeling. Not yet, anyway.

vote Fontisian

Autumn 04-24-2015 11:20 AM

I'm worried we still have so many no votes this far along in the day.

EagleFan 04-24-2015 11:23 AM

Have a few moments to post, barring any meetings that drag me away I should be able to sneak a few other moments throughout the day (working from home; I won't have to worry about being on the work laptop/network).

EagleFan 04-24-2015 11:32 AM

vote font

I keep coming back to the me versus font thing. From what I see Autumn doesn't seem like a wolf but my reads have been awful all game.

EagleFan 04-24-2015 11:37 AM

Oh, that last post was not any attempt to hint at being a seer. I am not the seer. (just realized how that was worded and don't want any confusion)

Autumn 04-24-2015 11:44 AM

Yet to vote: narc, shoveler, font, mrbug

Mr bug is the one I worry about most there (aside from font obviously). It's almost impossible to get a read on him so far.

Chief Rum 04-24-2015 11:50 AM



Day Four Vote Tally (as of Post #1043)


fontisian (4)-- Autumn (929), Grover (957), britrock88 (1038), EagleFan (1041)
britrock88 (1)-- Raven (926)
Narcizo (1)-- cheekimonk (1016)

Yet to Vote: Narcizo, Shoveler, fontisian, MrBug708


Raven 04-24-2015 12:04 PM

Still not sure if I want to go font/Grover/Bug
or
Narc/Brit/?

so for now I will consolidate
unvote britrock
vote Narcizo

MrBug708 04-24-2015 12:30 PM

vote brit

fontisian 04-24-2015 12:50 PM

Narc, I'm the blank. I can't be the cultist.

The seer needs to claim now so every town Duke can Duke to an actual scum. Please do it.

Vote Autumn

Or, we can with this.

There's something to the fact that the only person voting me who I didn't call as possible scum at the beginning of the Day is Grover.

Raven 04-24-2015 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fontisian (Post 3022895)
Narc, I'm the blank. I can't be the cultist.


This is false.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 3020187)


CULTIST-- You are a villager but you are a wannabe wolf. You win with the wolves, but count towards the village for win conditions. You know the wolves' identities and their Hunter/Duke allegiances. You cannot PM a player like the others, but you can receive PMs. You do not have a natural Hunter or Duke ability, although you will be a member of one of those teams. You have the ability to act as a member of one of those teams as if you were The Blank (Hunter team) or Stuttering Sam (Duke team). If you are attacked by the wolves, you will join them.


Actually, that's a really good case for me to vote for you.
You are either The Blank or you are The Cultist, but you are not both.

Narcizo 04-24-2015 12:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shoveler (Post 3022868)

If the cultist is found by the wolves, I'm guessing we are hosed, but I haven't run the actual scenarios at this point.
.


I can't help but think that font is the cultist. The only thing making me think that she was good was the question of why a wolf would make such an overt play. It would make sense if she was the cultist. I can think of reasons why cultist-font would make that move. The question is whether we should lynch her if she is.

If its 7:2:1 then lynching the cultist should leave us 6:2 if there's an unblocked night kill. ToMorrow a misslynch and night kill would be 4:2. If the wolves daykill and duke or nightkill it would be 2:2. However that would be the absolute worst case scenario. We would have less unknowns and a better handle on the information.

If we work around the cultist and look for a wolf (or if we miss the cultist) if we misslynch then it will be (barring a block) 5:2:1. If the wolves day kill, duke to a hunter and night kill then that gives them the win. They would have to really ride their luck there though. However final days almost always go to the wolves.

My feeling is to lynch font.

fontisian 04-24-2015 12:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Narcizo (Post 3022848)
Sorry but why are bug, grover and raven probably village?

Sorry, missed this.

They're relatively new and the voted next to timmae when a villager was being targeted by the other wagon.

Raven 04-24-2015 01:00 PM

Actually I should have probably said you are The Blank or you are The Cultist, but having "Blank ability" does not exclude you from being The Cultist.

fontisian 04-24-2015 01:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raven (Post 3022898)
This is false.



Actually, that's a really good case for me to vote for you.
You are either The Blank or you are The Cultist, but you are not both.

Oh, derp.

MrBug708 04-24-2015 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrBug708 (Post 3022892)
vote brit


I should clarify that I don't have much on anyone so I will be suspicious of anyone who is suspicious of me.

Sorry if it doesn't help

fontisian 04-24-2015 01:02 PM

^
Bug is town.

Shoveler 04-24-2015 01:08 PM

should the bg put in a conditional protect on font in the event we end up with a duke out of font in the lynch? If font is the cultist, I could see the wolves duking someone even if it was a sacrifice play (1 village, 1 wolf) and then converting the cultist tonight, bringing them back to 2. If we lynch font, we are at 6:2 either way it goes (if she is in fact the cultist).

Just a thought..

Grover 04-24-2015 01:35 PM

I am willing to bet that font is more likely the cultist than the blank.

Shoveler 04-24-2015 01:50 PM

Vote: Font

I think we vote font on the basis that she may be the cultist. If she is a wolf that's a bonus.

Raven 04-24-2015 01:52 PM

1. Shoveler-- Duke, Duke Used Day Three
15. MartinD-- Duke, MEDIC, SHOT-KILLED BY EAGLFAN, Day Three
2. Grover
5. cheekimonk
6. Raven
11. Autumn
12. britrock88
14. Narcizo
16. MrBug708
7. The Jackal-- Hunter, KILLED BY WOLVES, Night Three
3. JAG-- Hunter, KILLED BY WOLVES, Night One
4. timmae-- Hunter, Peacemaker and Cunning Wolf, DUKE-LYNCHED BY SHOVELER, Day Three
8. Vaimes-- Hunter, DUKE-LYNCHED BY MARTIND, Day Two
9. fontisian-- Hunter, Shot Used, Day Four
10. EagleFan-- Hunter, Shot Used Day Three
13. Zinto-- Hunter, LYNCHED, Day One

CULTIST-- You do not have a natural Hunter or Duke ability, although you will be a member of one of those teams. You have the ability to act as a member of one of those teams as if you were The Blank (Hunter team) or Stuttering Sam (Duke team).

Would seem that The Cultist was told they were a Hunter or a Duke in advance.
If so, With 16 players, that means we probably had 8:8 Hunters : Dukes, with 7 Hunters already known, and 2 Dukes already known.

If font is indeed The Cultist, then the remaining Hunter is The Blank.
If font is the real Blank, then The Cultist is the remaining Hunter and is also The Blank.

Seems we don't have to worry about anymore shots being fired.

If font is The Cultist, then I think the remaining Hunter can come out and claim so. Anyone agree/disagree?

Shoveler 04-24-2015 01:53 PM

The cultist could be a duke.. and thus stuttering sam..

Narcizo 04-24-2015 01:54 PM

vote fontisian

Out of time. I won't be back by the lynch.

Chief Rum 04-24-2015 01:55 PM



Day Four Vote Tally (as of Post #1061)


fontisian (6)-- Autumn (929), Grover (957), britrock88 (1038), EagleFan (1041), Shoveler (1057), Narcizo (1060)
Narcizo (2)-- cheekimonk (1016), Raven (1045)
britrock88 (1)-- MrBug708 (1046)
Autumn (1)-- fontisian (1047)


Raven 04-24-2015 01:57 PM

I guess it's also possible that there is no real "The Blank". So there may be a single shot left.

But if font is The Cultist, she didn't read the rules regarding the Cultist - which seems unlike her.

Shoveler 04-24-2015 01:58 PM

font could be the blank hunter and just a vanilla villager.. that is entirely possible. the cultist could still be either a hunter or a duke..

Shoveler 04-24-2015 01:59 PM

at least that is how I interpreted the rules.. there would be one blank, one stuttering sam.. and the cultist who would also act like whichever one of those was on their hunter/duke faction.

Raven 04-24-2015 01:59 PM

Plus the Clip (which could be in a Dukes hand, thus giving him a shot).

Damn Chief and all his rules!

Shoveler 04-24-2015 02:01 PM

i hope the clip is in a village dukes hands.. we are going to end up with alot of dukes at the end, and duke shooting duke wasn't a suicide move.

Chief Rum 04-24-2015 02:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raven (Post 3022924)
Plus the Clip (which could be in a Dukes hand, thus giving him a shot).

Damn Chief and all his rules!


:devil:

Shoveler 04-24-2015 02:10 PM

Sort of guessing I may be the night kill tonight.. so in that event I will put down a few thoughts..

Font and EF are known hunters, if either/both of them are villagers they are probably safe from NK as they will be the duke wolves easy out in the event of a lynch.

I am not sure what to make of narc jumping on the shoveler-friend wagon..

I've taken one successful gamble this game.. and I've already taken another..

If you received an item from me use it every day.

Autumn 04-24-2015 02:14 PM

I think even if Font is the cultist lynching her is the right choice. Letting the wolves hit the cultist would be a huge setback right now. It's also important to know so we can evaluate votes knowing whether the wolves knew her or not.

fontisian 04-24-2015 02:17 PM

Ok.

1. I cannot be the cultist. Look at my Day 1. I was laid back and pushing timmae and JAG as scum and Vaimes as town. Two of those reads were accurate.

The cultist should be attempting to attract attention away from the scumteam while linking up with them somehow. I haven't done anything of the sort.

Also, if I was the cultist, I would have duked the lynch toDay or yesterDay instead of using a kill, as that wastes an entire lynch.

2. Even if I was the cultist, I'm completely harmless. My (blank) kill is spent, if I was the cultist, I wouldn't be able to make any nks and the town can win with me still alive, and you won't get any vote analysis out of my lynch,
because all of the scum probably think I'm town.

This lynch is bad. Lynch scum.

I mean, the evidence against me is what? That I had the misfortune of being the blank?

Whereas EagleFan saw that I was going to shoot Autumn, and then, saying absolutely nothing in the thread, tried to beat my kill command in to kill not a only a townie but someone guaranteed to be a Duke. And now they're both voting me for nebulous reasons.

EF and Autumn are scum. Lynch them.

EagleFan 04-24-2015 02:17 PM

I am comfortable with my vote today and am about to be heading into a late meeting (hate these on a Friday afternoon, they never freaking get done by 5).

I may not be on until late this evening (if I am still alive).

fontisian 04-24-2015 02:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn (Post 3022929)
I think even if Font is the cultist lynching her is the right choice. Letting the wolves hit the cultist would be a huge setback right now. It's also important to know so we can evaluate votes knowing whether the wolves knew her or not.

No it wouldn't!

You know this. The wolves hitting the cultist means they're not hitting the seer or the bodyguard and that is suicide for them.

fontisian 04-24-2015 02:20 PM

Like, I am completely failing to understand why the scum team would want to hit the cultist if they've already figured out who they are. It doesn't change the vote ratios at all, and I think it lets the seer start checking the cultist as scum anyway.

And I'm sure the only reason this argument is coming up is that the wolves know I've probably been checked as town and want to see how the seer reacts to the argument so they can shoot them before they claim.

Shoveler 04-24-2015 02:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fontisian (Post 3022930)
Ok.Also, if I was the cultist, I would have duked the lynch toDay or yesterDay instead of using a kill, as that wastes an entire lynch.


I dont get this statement at all. You took a shot today and at worst you are the blank hunter.

How do you duke yesterday if you were the cultist? the cultist is still associated with one side. You can't be both.

fontisian 04-24-2015 02:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shoveler (Post 3022935)
I dont get this statement at all. You took a shot today and at worst you are the blank hunter.

How do you duke yesterday if you were the cultist? the cultist is still associated with one side. You can't be both.

Fuck my life, I misread the rules again.

I was under the impression that Stuttering Sam prevents a lynch from happening if he activities. Since the cultist has to look like Stuttering Sam, he could therefore nullify a lynch and help the scum team that way. Instead Sam just prevents a duking.

fontisian 04-24-2015 02:29 PM

Oh holy shit, I have an idea. We have seven hunters out now, and one blank. There are zero to one left (if you believe I'm the blank) or one to two left. (if you believe I am the cultist) If I am the cultist, then it can be confirmed by a those one to two hunters coming forward and shooting a scummy Duke. If the blank hits, then I'm the cultist. If no one comes forward, or if only a real hunter comes forward, then I'm obviously the real blank.

Shoveler 04-24-2015 02:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fontisian (Post 3022937)
Oh holy shit, I have an idea. We have seven hunters out now, and one blank. There are zero to one left (if you believe I'm the blank) or one to two left. (if you believe I am the cultist) If I am the cultist, then it can be confirmed by a those one to two hunters coming forward and shooting a scummy Duke. If the blank hits, then I'm the cultist. If no one comes forward, or if only a real hunter comes forward, then I'm obviously the real blank.


you already took today's shot. nobody can shoot until after the deadline.

fontisian 04-24-2015 02:31 PM

And did I mention that I was pushing timmae as scum Day 1? I did? Wow.

fontisian 04-24-2015 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shoveler (Post 3022938)
you already took today's shot. nobody can shoot until after the deadline.

Actually, I'm not entirely sure that's true. Has anyway asked Chief?

Either way, lynching someone one Day when you confirm them the next Day is stupid.

Grover 04-24-2015 02:32 PM

font is on tilt.

fontisian 04-24-2015 02:34 PM

Shoveler, why do you think my shot on scummy, unconfirmed role, and prior warned Autumn was worse that EF's shot out of nowhere on the confirmed town, confirmed Duke Martin? Explain to me how that could possibly make any sense.

fontisian 04-24-2015 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grover (Post 3022941)
font is on tilt.

Font is pissed.

What are you doing? Do you realize that you were the only likely town voting me throughout the Day? For what?

fontisian 04-24-2015 02:37 PM

Frankly, it's hard not to get pissed after watching kills and lynches get spent on confirmed town twice, getting run up for no goddamn reason, correctly pushing scum, having my shot fail on me, and watching people call me a cultist when that doesn't jive with my behavior at all.

Add in the bullshit logic about how the scum team would possibly want to turn the cultist into a full wolf (as if that changes the voting ratios or overrun time /at all/) and the way no one is even bothering to look at Autumn and EF, the obvious scum, and this is absolutely insane.

Grover 04-24-2015 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fontisian (Post 3022944)
Font is pissed.

What are you doing? Do you realize that you were the only likely town voting me throughout the Day? For what?


I believe that you are the cultist.

You surety of Bug being town. You attempting to take a shot at another villager with nothing but a hunch. I don't believe I'm the only villager voting on you either.

Shoveler 04-24-2015 02:40 PM

I guess font, the selling point to me is that you called brit out as the seer and he's voting for you..

Shoveler 04-24-2015 02:43 PM

Wolves.. please NK me.. I'm starting to envy the dead in this game.

fontisian 04-24-2015 02:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grover (Post 3022947)
I believe that you are the cultist.

You surety of Bug being town. You attempting to take a shot at another villager with nothing but a hunch. I don't believe I'm the only villager voting on you either.

Bug is obvious newb-town. His vote position next to timmae along with this post:
Quote:

Originally Posted by MrBug708 (Post 3022904)
I should clarify that I don't have much on anyone so I will be suspicious of anyone who is suspicious of me.

Sorry if it doesn't help

Where he clearly wants to help but doesn't know how, makes him town. Once I flip, never lynch or shoot him.

Autumn is very likely not a villager. He 1.Is one of the three unconfirmed people on the Zinto lynch (the other being you, a likely town, and Narc, who is acting townier than Autumn.) He was the only one to argue against the Vaimes/Martin/me team on Day 2, but then he tried to push it off on cheeki, one of my stronger town reads at the time. The push itself was weak, and similar to the way many stronger players like to act as scum (avoiding an incoming town lynch in order to get a little towncred). When I threatened to shoot him, he treated the threat overly blithely, especially after Vaimes shot me out of nowhere the previous Day. Then, I found that EF, who had just finished trying to bait me into shooting him (which, were I not the blank, would have killed us both) immediately put a shot in, with no warning, on a confirmed town the scumteam wanted dead who was also a Duke (and therefore guaranteed not to kill him). This effectively protected Autumn on Day 3. Then, Autumn started this fearmongering about me being a cultist, and only began to push it after I suggested it was likely I had already been seer checked as town.

Autumn is scum. EF is probably scum. Britrock is the likely third.

You aren't the only villager voting on me. But you'll note that I called out Autumn, EF, britrock, cheeki and Narc (in that order) as containing the last scum at the beginning of the Day. Then you, Autumn, EF and britrock voted for me.

Autumn 04-24-2015 02:49 PM

The idea that two wolves wouldn't vote next to each other in a vote list seems like the thinnest of all possible reasons to clear someone. I just wanted to say that.

fontisian 04-24-2015 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shoveler (Post 3022948)
I guess font, the selling point to me is that you called brit out as the seer and he's voting for you..

I didn't call him out as the seer though!

I thought, when I saw him protecting Autumn, that he was either 1. A seer, 2. a wolf with or cultist to Autumn or 3. a really bad townie. I then looked through the game, especially Autumn and brit's play, assessed that 1 was really unlikely, and, even if it was true, that brit is a good enough player to them claim and win the game for us, that I took the shot. It was just one of many, many factors I took into account instead of just shooting randomly.

fontisian 04-24-2015 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn (Post 3022955)
The idea that two wolves wouldn't vote next to each other in a vote list seems like the thinnest of all possible reasons to clear someone. I just wanted to say that.

Yes, I'm sure you wouldn't want that to be assessed.

New wolves, by necessity, want to distance themselves from their partners whenever possible. If there are two town wagons, then you can count on them not voting one right after another as opposed spreading out their votes on different times and wagons. Of course, now that I've said this, I expect that pattern to change a bit.

This kind of analysis doesn't apply to more experienced people like brit, Autumn, EF and Narc.

Shoveler 04-24-2015 02:53 PM

sorry font, you many very well be right, and we may be lynching the wrong person.. but the rules in this game are so confusing and just thinking through all the possibilities is about to make my head explode.

If the town does manage to win this game, every surviving member should be automatically welcomed into MENSA with open arms.

Again, I hope I die tonight. This game is making me feel intellectually inept.

Autumn 04-24-2015 02:53 PM

I don't think it applies to anybody. I've been a wolf a hundred times and don't think we've ever discussed the timing of our votes. It's certainly not something clear enough that you could find wolves using it.

fontisian 04-24-2015 02:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shoveler (Post 3022958)
sorry font, you many very well be right, and we may be lynching the wrong person.. but the rules in this game are so confusing and just thinking through all the possibilities is about to make my head explode.

If the town does manage to win this game, every surviving member should be automatically welcomed into MENSA with open arms.

Again, I hope I die tonight. This game is making me feel intellectually inept.

Oh my God, Shoveler. That is so not helpful.

This game isn't that complicated. Read my arguments, read Autumns, stop using faulty odds (because they always steer you wrong) and assess which arguments are stronger.

Raven 04-24-2015 02:55 PM

font, If you come up town, then I'm pushing for a brit lynch tomorrow.
I already suspect brit/narc, and Autumn was quick to jump to the defense of brit (which seemed odd to me).

The rest of you - if font is town, and I am NK'd, then PLEASE take out brit! I'm not sure if it's brit/narc or brit/Autumn, but brit is the common link. Autumn could also be the Cultist if it's brit/narc. I would not completely rule out EF either.


Or seer can just scan brit tonight.

if font comes up dirty, then I'd looking closely at Grover/Bug tomorrow.

Raven 04-24-2015 02:56 PM

^^EF as wolf, not Cultist.

fontisian 04-24-2015 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn (Post 3022959)
I don't think it applies to anybody. I've been a wolf a hundred times and don't think we've ever discussed the timing of our votes. It's certainly not something clear enough that you could find wolves using it.

...

Of course you don't discuss it. It's an in the moment thing, where if you (a newbie wolf) see your scummate making a case against a townie, you don't immediately vote with them but rather wait for another townie to make a move or vote somewhere to look different.

fontisian 04-24-2015 02:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raven (Post 3022961)
font, If you come up town, then I'm pushing for a brit lynch tomorrow.
I already suspect brit/narc, and Autumn was quick to jump to the defense of brit (which seemed odd to me).

The rest of you - if font is town, and I am NK'd, then PLEASE take out brit! I'm not sure if it's brit/narc or brit/Autumn, but brit is the common link. Autumn could also be the Cultist if it's brit/narc. I would not completely rule out EF either.


Or seer can just scan brit tonight.

if font comes up dirty, then I'd looking closely at Grover/Bug tomorrow.

No, no, no.

If I am scum, you lynch Autumn tomorrow. And the seer claims asap. And every Duke puts in an action on the designated lynch of the Day to stop it from being Duked by scum to the seer.

Raven 04-24-2015 02:58 PM

Why Autumn tomorrow if you are scum?

fontisian 04-24-2015 03:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raven (Post 3022965)
Why Autumn tomorrow if you are scum?

The explanatory post is on this page.

I will say that I don't like Narc's decision to follow Shoveler. It feels like he's absolving himself of responsibility.

But I would be very surprised if at least two wolves aren't on my wagon.

Raven 04-24-2015 03:01 PM

If you came up wolf/cultist, we would not be lynching the person you suggested we lynch next.


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