The Giants aren't sitting on another loss due to their decision to go for 2. It was that massive FG that guy hit.

And yes, that garbage time TD won me a fantasy game, so yay me.

What about Carr for Blake bortles and a first and a third.

I'm fine with going for two and the win if it comes down to it. The vaunted Giants offense had scored 12 points in 55 minutes and suddenly are making an aggressive 2 point attempt...just seems a bit too ballsy

Rage against the machine.

Not really a surprise that Gruden would want to move on from Carr. Watching all those draft QB specials he did with ESPN, you just know that he wants one for himself.

Nothing to do with hubris, it is all math and the math says going for it there gives you the best chance to win the game.

The fact that the Giants had a less-than NFL-average chance of making the 2 point conversion also means that they had a less-than NFL-average chance of winning if the game went to overtime.

The NFL stat nerds have been talking about going for 2 in this scenario for a while, long before this game, and they're convinced it makes sense for any team (though, it does make a little less sense for a bad offense).



Late and Trailing by 14 Points: Always Go For 2 After a Touchdown – Predictive Football

Makes sense. The trick is that you don't have to decide whether to try the second 2pc until after you know whether you made the first. It's giving you extra flexibility in decision making.

Of course, football coaches will be the last to adopt/figure this out. This is still a sport where our favorite moment in Hard Knocks this year was (rightly) the O-Line coach citing the world wars for the proposition that all you need for physical training are push ups and jumping jacks.

The general concept is fine, but this is where the thinking breaks down as you note. If you have a bad offense, or one particularly ill-equipped to score in the red zone, then the initial 50/50 percentages are skewed, which throws off the rest of the percentages.

True, the Giants probably had a less than 50% chance of converting, but they also had a less than 50% chance of winning in overtime, so that that skews the part of the chart back in favor of going for 2 and increasing their odds of winning in regulation. So the chart overestimates the Giants' chances of converting, but it also overestimates the Giants' chances of winning in OT, so it kind of balances out.

Though the guy in the article did have the one qualifier that if your odds of winning in overtime were dramatically better than converting the 2-point conversion, then it'd make sense to kick. But he didn't think there were many teams for whom that would be the case. You'd have to have a really shitty short-yard offense AND an excellent defense. Or there'd have to be some game-specific factor like the opposing team QB getting injured late.

I would think it also makes even less sense for a bad offense vs a good defense. So much so that it may not make sense as a whole. There are a lot of variables to this, not as easy as assigning "50/50" to each potential outcome. Even the XP kick is far from a done deal at this point.

The chart is a deliberately over-simplified. But that and the article won me over because the contrary view doesn't seem be based on anything other than "gut" (and because going for 2 in this scenario seems to be the universal stance of people who are deep into NFL stat probability stuff). If there's a more complex breakdown that more accurately depicts each potential outcome and it leads to an opposite conclusion, I haven't seen it yet.

Giants trade Eli.


Apple that is. To the saints for a 4th and. 7 th. Winning football flipping a first rounder for two late picks.

Again, dependent upon situations.

And, yes, it's nothing BUT hubris. A generation of geniuses who need to convince themselves that they are oh-so-much smarter than decades prior.

It's not always a bad move ... but no situation card anywhere can take into account the flow of a game in isolation, what personnel is available, etc etc.

I'm a numbers guy for a living basically.
I'm a numbers guy for recreation to a fair extent as well (what else really IS gaming & such?)

No plan survives contact with the enemy ... which is what the obnoxious as fuck talking heads can't let go of their hubris long enough to acknowledge. At this point, the data driven folks are about as tolerable as vegans, keto diet folks, and crossfit practitioners. All of whom are as about much fun to hear as pyramid scheme con artists.

This is the part that makes no sense to me. If you're going to go for two, you have to do it on the 1st attempt. If you miss, then you have the chance to go for two again and tie it up. If you kick the XP, then you've eliminated one of your options if you miss the two point conversion at the end.

I still don't understand where this "wait until the end" line of thinking came up. People still argue that when down by 15, you should kick the XP first and go the the 2 pt conversion second. That has never made sense to me and no one has ever been able to satisfactorily explain to me why you don't want the extra information (how the 2 pt conversion attempt turned out) earlier rather than later.

I think the idea is that a coach would prefer to avoid or defer making a decision that may get him criticized until he doesn't have a choice.

Yes, and the other part that isn't mentioned is that since the new XP rules kickers only hit about 93% of them, which means there's about a 1 in 8 chance your kicker misses one of the two extra points.
The talking heads? Most announcers - and Jason Witten and Booger McFarland in particular - aren't exactly new age geniuses pushing for revolutionary thinking.

Heard the numbers on VSIN today

going for the 2 in that spot you have 46% to win, 25% to lose.

29% to tie? That seems wrong

Because in your 2nd paragraph, if you are down 15, score a TD and go for 2 and miss, then you are down 9. That's still 2 scores away. A one score game puts more pressure on the other team and does give you more leeway to play conventionally longer.

At the end of regulation

Gotcha

But if we're assuming you miss the 2 pt conversion either way, then you want that information on the first attempt. That way you know you need 2 more scores and can adjust your offense accordingly. If you kick the EP and play conventionally, then you have fewer options if you miss the 2pt conversion on the 2nd try.

Yep. I also assumed this whole discussion also isn't about what to do early in the 2nd half, but rather late in the 4th when you presumably will only get 1-2 possessions unless you onside kick it.

Snacks!!

The assumption that you are going to be down 15 early in the 2nd half and then hold the other team from scoring anything at all for the remainder of the game is quite flawed as well. Then you run the risk of being down 9, giving up a score and the other team going for 2 and making it a 17 point game.

It is pretty rare for many coaches to even consider this, it seems like most are content to play it safe and just kick until it is absolutely necessary.

Iirc the numbers I heard were with 5 minutes or less left.

The reality is most coaches are conservative because they are afraid to get killed in the Media and lose their jobs.

:(

:D

And for what seemed like a very cheap pricetag.

Yeah, I think the low draft pick is because of his contract. It's a big contract for a player who essentially specializes in stopping the run. He's not going to help you much in rushing the passer. With BJ Hill and Devlin Tomlinson playing as well as they have (2 other quality run defensive players), I guess Gettlemen thought he could lose some run defense, still be okay with those two, and use the savings to improve elsewhere.

I get it from a GM perspective, because the Giants are hurting at most positions and really need that cap space, but I loved Snacks and was hoping he'd be a Giant the rest of his career.

Just a crazy catch off the helmet.

Pretty sure #22 on the fins has just gone brain dead on 3 long plays.

Interesting thought of the day:
If Watson ctually had an O-Line to block for him. Would he be in the elite of the elite of the NFL passing, or does his near constant scrambling out of necessity actually open up some of his WRs?

I dunno, but he's a joy to watch and so is Hopkins. Insane non catch catch on that bs OPI

I think that, like Aaron Rogers or Russell Wilson, he makes some plays that open up because of his ability outside of the pocket.

And any non-braindead offensive coordinator designing an offense for him would incorporate his scrambling/rollout ability into designed offensive plays. But the NFL is still a pocket-based league. And the fact that Houston's O-line cannot allow him to play cleanly from the pocket puts a ceiling on far he can take that offense.

He's very good now. He could be an MVP with a non-shitty offensive line.

(And if they don't get him O-line help soon, there's a very real risk he'll become "DeShaun Watson, if he had stayed healthy . . ." within five years)

or he is going to be Deshaun Watson, Former Houston QB in 2...

Regardless of the reasons behind the bill, WTF were players doing at a nightclub 36 hours or so before a game?

Four Jacksonville Jaguars involved in incident at London club - NFL.com

The greatest business in the world has to be 1,000% markup on booze for "bottle service". I wonder who figured out that rich people would pay that. It's just so random. Imagine it in another context. "You want a cheeseburger, OK, that'll be, I don't know, $900. What, you'll actually pay that? - sweet, he's your receipt".

:lol:

So Jameis Winston is pretty bad. What do the Bucs do with him next year? They've exercised his fifth year option, which means he's due around $21 million. But if I understand correctly, they can save themselves all of that if he is cut by June 1st.

I mean, they have to cut the guy, right? Does anyone here keep him around at that figure in the hopes of... what... hoping he finally gets better next year to sign long term?

Dirk Koetter just kicked the xp after scoring the first TD after being down 15. I think that defininitively proves that it’s the wrong call. Call it the Koetter corollary:-)

Ready for the Giants season to be over

As long as he keeps bringing us random moments of FitzMagic through is ineptitude (professional or private), they can keep him signed forever, as far as I'm concerned.

ETA: Not a Bucs fan, so it's probably more entertaining for me than it is for them.

Le' Veon Who?


He's rolled the dice this year, and I think it'll cost him. He's just not going to get the contract offer that he hopes to get. He should sit out another couple weeks unless the team is able to trade him, and even when he comes back he's not going to be in the position to be the impact guy for the team. AFAIC, the team totally did the right thing by letting him do his thing and knowing that Conner would be able to perform. RB's just don't have that 'must have' quality anymore. The good talent coming out of college just plugs into the modern game too well.

Conner has essentially proven that it was the OL more than it was Bell. It's easy to do what Bell did with the Steelers OL. Add a pair of decent hands to that and Conner was bound to produce like this.

I think not only did Bell hurt himself, he also hurt the RB market as a whole. The rest of the RB's in the league who haven't gotten their next big deal yet should be pissed.

Well the new Cards offense was looking a lot like the old Cards offense until the 4th quarter where Rosen showed he can be a NFL quarterback. That last play by the Niners to end the game though...wow that's going to be a tough one to swallow.

And the winner is... Todd Haley!

Browns fire coach Hue Jackson after two-plus seasons

So was that fake punt by Michael Dickson yesterday the first one done in the NFL from a team's own end zone? I can't ever remember that happening at the pro level.

And if RB personnel choices were the tipping point (as I've seen mentioned) then this makes even less sense.

Haley's guy was traded away, right?
And yet he wins the war?

Maybe they just made this move so they could hire Tyronn Lue?