Combining with the idea that Lathum is a respected player and common N1 target.

I understand the reverse is that if I'm a wolf the wolves would know exactly who the BG is, but either way they were assuming Mau was protected. I still maintain that would've been a terrible play.

Unvote Jackal

I'm going to sit back and see what other things we can come up with or if anyone else is willing to claim a role or shed some light on things. To me, the events of yesterday if we're taking everything at face value means the wolves have screwed everything up and I think they are smarter than that. First, MartinD just gives himself up a couple of hours before the deadline. Then, Lathum reveals himself as the BG to a wolf and the wolves go after him anyway and don't get a night 1 kill. Could well be the case I guess... but there's a lot of other possibilities out there and in all those scenarios Jackal isn't a wolf.

Not really, it's probably the play I would have made if I was thinking Lathum wouldn't have been able to talk about it if killed.

But why would you think that? It clearly says in the rule post that people are allowed to participate in the discussion after they are killed.

I am agreeing with your line of though, bhlloy.

That being said, we really don't have information on anyone else at this point. I think the scenarios break down like this:

1) The wolves give up MartinD in a sophisticated play to take heat off of mauboy. MartinD was not rolled and mauboy is the cunning. They feed the information to sal via PM.

2) Jackal finds out Lathum is the bodyguard via PM. He is a wolf and reports it back. The wolves decide to night kill Lathum, as they figured he would protect the proclaimed seer.

Is there a third scenario? Maybe. I am still trying to work that out in my head.

At this point, I would lean more toward #1 than #2.

I have serious doubts Mau is the seer

Why wouldn't he scan his own teammate?

I agree with this and it's the one reason I didn't make more of Lathum's decision to protect himself. Only real question in my mind is whether Mau is a desperate villager or a wolf.

The only problem with that, GE, is that if mau isn't the seer then the real one is going to come out sooner or later, and then it wouldn't matter if mau was cunning or not, he'd bite it. The possibility there is that sal is the cunning, and they were working for endgame on day one, but that's a long shot too.

Basically I didn't trust Maus move and knew if I was wrong I was dead if I protected him. Things happened basically how I thought they would. Plus I had about 4 minutes to take it all in and decided not to change.

That and I am tired of being killed early, even though I am likely dead tonight since I will likely guard Mau barring any odd happenings.

At this point I would be floored if Sal was a wolf, he isn't this meta gamey, especially once he mentions his kids.

Mau just came out with his scan, though. No one made a big deal about Lathum not protecting the seer last night, before we got a scan from mau. I understand you, who might not have read everything until after mau's reveal, but I whole night passed between Lathum's reveal and mau's announcement of his seer result.

IMO, you can't risk the seer on a hunch. And I think Lathum knows that. I would like to know if there was something more to his decision to protect himself. He wouldn't have known The Jackal was a wolf until he gets attacked at the deadline.

Yeah I don't think so either, I kind of doubt the cunning was involved in this exchange.

Except Mau's scan makes no sense. He scanned you rather than one of the day 1 players or his teammate (which seems the obvious move seeing he can PM them and it's important to know if they can be trusted)

But then if he's pretending to scan people, he should know that anyway. So not necessarily damning, I just think it's interesting.

I do agree about not risking the seer on a hunch though. Definitely either a gutsy play by Lathum or he knows more than he's letting on.

Mau could have easily faked that scan though (not saying you are or aren't a wolf, CR). Outside of his subtle-yet-not-so-subtle post, did mau actually come straight and say he was the seer? Lathum clearly had doubts about it either way, and he did say he had almost moved to mau to block.

I literally had 3 minutes to process everything, and the only reason I had that was my wife was getting my son in his PJs for bed. I decided to stay on myself for reasons stated earlier.

I still think Mau is likely a wolf who was making a play

[quote=bhlloy;2430742]Except Mau's scan makes no sense. He scanned you rather than one of the day 1 players or his teammate (which seems the obvious move seeing he can PM them and it's important to know if they can be trusted)
QUOTE]

excellent line of thinking here, well done!

I said this earlier, but if it forces the seer to come out earlier, that's good for the wolves. If the seer comes out later, then Mauboy can control a good portion of the game with his fake scans and even when the seer does come out, he can still claim to be a villager, just a desperate villager who didn't want to get voted on day 1.

FTR I don't think Sal is a wolf. My only question with that exchange is whether MartinD screwed up, or Sal was fed the information on purpose. If we assume the second, it's pretty damning for Mauboy as that information saved his ass.

Right, but either the real seer would come out right away or would wait a bit to get some scans first. So either mau is real, or the real seer is doing the smart thing and waiting. It is definitely a well documented and solid wolf move on day one, and that's one of the reasons people are being so skeptical of mau at the moment.

As far as claiming to be a desperate villager, that would be an awful play for a villager to make. As villagers we can get pissed as much as we want when people make wrong decisions about them (cough, cough), but to alter the game with a lie like that as a villager with no positive benefits to the village is just a play that most villagers wouldn't/shouldn't make. So he'd get lynched no matter what, is my point.

Furthermore, there's no point for the seer to reveal early since he will be allowed to reveal his scans after he is dead (presuming the seer isn't Mau).

So we have to take mau's scans with a grain of salt, sort've like we did in the Vegas game with the villager scans we couldn't be sure of.

Unless your teammate is the cunning and then you just screwed up. I think I would like to vote for mauboy, but it is too risky if he is actually the seer. I am in no case advocating for the real seer to come out. In fact, please don't do that.

I would like to consider another candidate besides Jackal. Does anyone have any ideas?

Have no fear, I am not the cunning! (or any wolf for that matter) :D

As for possible people to vote for, I don't see anyone who should be a clear second candidate. Maybe someone who isn't contributing much?

Do we know I can scan after a Lynch? It doesn't say anywhere in my description about that. If that is the Case my team needs to get our asses in gear.. we r in 9th place ATM.

Regardless, I highly doubt my ability will continue after a Lynch. I will be able to contribute in the thread as was mentioned already.

Slow and steady wins the race

No after you are lynched/NKed you can only participate in the thread, I don't think you can use night actions. That'd be insane.

Instead of the falklands, you should go to the Galapagos with the rest of the turtles.

your ability wouldn't but you would be able to talk about it still.

I think the aspect of this game we all overlooked is people can still talk about the game after they have been killed. It is a rarely seen dynamic that is a huge advantage to the village.

Unless there team is eliminated from the race.

This is a good point, and the only thing which would force an earlier seer reveal. If the seer is on one of the last place teams and their teammate gets lynched/NKed, it gets to the point where they might have to come out instead of standing pat.

I agree that mau's scan makes no sense. Thing is, no one could know who he scanned until he said something, which was this morning. I am talking about the actions of people last night (and of Lathum as BG), which happened with the general assumption that mau was likely the seer.

I agree now that there is some doubt about mau as the seer, but that doubt was generally non-existent last night; most inluding myself thought it likely mau was indeed the seer.

That's the thing, thoughm Lathum, I didn't see you state why. Your initial post just tosses out that you protected yourself, not why. You only made it seem that way in retrospect because you were attacked, so The Jackal must be a wolf, kindof a circular "that's why I protected myself". But you wouldn't have known any of that prior to the attack. When you made your decision, mau was likely to be a seer, and your unknown-allegiance but hopefully good teammate The Jackal knew you were the BG. I would like to know why in that situation, even in three minutes, you chose to protect yourself and not the presumed seer.

I believe you're the BG. I think the real BG would have come out by now if you were not. So please don't think I am trying to paint you as a wolf. I am just honestly confused by your decision, why you would risk the seer like that. It flies in the face of conventional WW logic.

BTW, something to keep in mind--mau (as a wolf fake seer) might have chosen to scan me (the illogical choice) instead of his teammate (the logical choice) because his teammate happens to be a wolf, out of coincidence. mau may have scanned me intentionally so that when he eventually is lynched, his fake scan won't lead to unnecessary questions of his fellow wolf and teammate.

Just speculation of a possibility of course, not stating mau's teammate is a wolf. I don't even know who mau's teammate is.

I am not sold on Jackal being a wolf and while there is not a strong second candidate I am open to seeing if we can vote on someone else since if Jackal does not come back a wold our Day 1 & 2 voting is going to be screwy for further use.

We should be thankful Lathum went the route of guarding himself because now we get 1 or 2 more scans depending on if Mau's team is still in the race.

Also if Mau is not the seer I doubt he is a wolf because the wolves only have 1 or 2 days after tomorrow before it would get really suspicious not night killing him.

It's certainly possible that Mau is faking his reveal, and I was still considering that last night, as chopping block reveals always make me dubious. At this point though I don't think it's worth spending much time on. If he faked it, then the seer knows it and eventually he'll be outed. At that point we can figure out what his game was. But it would be ridiculous to put the seer on the chopping block again and give the wolves a chance to off him for free.

Sure, it would be good to have someone else as a target today. I'm pretty sure I'm going to go with Jackal though. I think Lathum may have caught him just as he said he did, and I think it's reasonable to think the wolves didn't think they'd get caught. They wouldn't suspect he'd guard himself, and they weren't thinking - like the rest of us - that he could talk even if he was dead. In addition Jackal appears a bit more animated in defense of himself than I would normally expect. I think a Jackal lynch is better than any other lynch we're going to come up with day two.

Lathum, question: When did you tell The Jackal you were the BG? Was it before mau's "reveal"? A long time before or just a little (if at all)?

Chief, I don't find Lathum's move that odd. Lathum often (usually?) acts on deeper level Werewolf play. Most wolves are going to figure that a revealed seer will be guarded the first night he's revealed, so they're going to go elsewhere. In which case, it's back to normal day 1 bodyguard move, guard yourself.

Yes Zinto but a few more days of having him and having him spread fake scans is better than letting him get lynched day one (in the case he's a wolf). Mau might very well be the seer, we'll find out in a couple of nights I imagine. Though I too doubt his story, there's no point voting him at the moment on the chance that he is in fact the real seer.

Because I never believed him to be the seer, his wolf stinks of wolf desperation.

He told me very early on Wednesday that he was the BG, playing on the good chance that I wasn't a wolf and trusting me there. And I'm not a wolf, but we know how that's working out..

That's quite the risk to take with the seer. It worked out this time, but I would have to call that decision very questionable as a general rule of thumb. I have argued for lynching people for less odd decisions than that.

It says so in the rules on the first page! I know even I was asking for clarification, but that'd be a poor leap of faith considering it's written in the rules that people can participate post-death.


I was animated last night because I was nicely tipsy from my birthday celebrations/watching the Flyers win, and had my emotions go from (Awesome, we lynched a wolf and won the first leg!) to (WTF LATHUM and I have a bunch of votes on me already!).

Today I've just been trying to point out the reason why it would've been a bad move for the wolves to go after Lathum if I was a wolf. It would lead directly to me being outed, by Lathum.

Assuming the seers race team has not finished last yet.

Based on this line of thinking, a vote on mau's teammate may give us the most information for a day 2 vote. That is, unfortunately, Danny.

Right, which GE pointed out a little while ago. But no team has been eliminated yet, so if the real seer is not mau, they still have at least some time. But they need to be aware of being completely eliminated before revealing their scans, yes.

That is unfortunate for you, Jackal, because an early BG reveal between the two of you sets the table for the type of play Lathum is describing. If you're a wolf and knew he was the BG, you and a wolf mau could easily devise a fake seer reveal to save mau later in the day, and then use it as a reason to take out Lathum. As has been noted, none of us really seemed to know that we could talk about both aspects of the game after we're dead in one.

Lathum, another question: did you have reason to suspect The Jackal prior to the deadline and the attack? Or did you think he was a villager and was surprised you were attacked?

Pretty early on. I had a different plan in mind but the way things went down yesterday changed that.

I know its unfortunate, but there's no point in lying about it. I still maintain that it would've been terrible for me/the wolves if I was a wolf to go after Lathum N1. So basically, either the wolves sold me down the river (if you believe I'm a wolf), or my villager teammate has. Fun. :)

I agree that it's in the rules, but I also agree with Autumn that it seems likely to me that most of us didn't catch on to that. I know I didn't. It runs contrary to standard WW practice and may have caught us unaware.

Right, but the wolves are usually and should be much more careful when it comes to the rules. Their margin for error is much smaller. I'm a villager too, which is why I wasn't sure of it either. But again, I'm just laying out some things to help people make a decision. I'd like to see at least one other candidate with me, even if I'm going to bite it. I'm not roled, I'm winning the race, I can still participate in discussing people's posts and my gut after I'm dead. So I'm not a terrible loss. But if I can show people the light and we lynch someone else, there's a chance of catching a wolf instead of 0%. This is from my POV, of course, no one can trust me further than reading what I have to say and making their own opinion/gut reads.