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Heh heh...exactly! |
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I completely disagree with this Abe. By lynching you today we learn about all the movement from yesterday that kept you alive. |
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See Eaglefan, this is how you disagree. You don;t tell someone what they actually beleive, and you don;t mischaracterize with quotes what they say, and then never apologize for it, you just quote, disagree, state your reason and move on. You could learn a lot from Lathum. |
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Get over yourself!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
Honestly with some of my behavior in the past I doubt I am a very good role model.
Front Office Football Central - View Single Post - Werewolf: Hunt for Necromancers - GAME OVER! Post #3469 |
Sooner or later, play enough WW, everybody gets into it at least once.
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Forget you, Coffee Warlord! You don't know squat. :D (I just realized it's really hard to jokingly tell someone off in a clean game...) |
Added the PB reveal to the timeline (going with 288 as the reveal post as it seemed to be a "multi-part" reveal):
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Does that lead you to any different conclusions, EF?
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Can't figure out ntn's votes that day. Something odd there, at least that's my take. |
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Yeah, that is odd, although with so many switches by a number of people, I don't know if it stands out more or less than others. But, yeah, what a strange rollercoaster ride for ntn's voting performance on Day 1. |
To elaborate:
He first votes RA early in the day. I know that I voted RA but I picked him because I figured that he wouldn't get any other votes and since I was going with the Raiders/Eagles angle that it wouldn't be a reason which could influence others to vote that way. Then he changes to PB to put him 2 votes ahead of Abe. After the PB reveal I would have expected a wolf to move off PB at some point with the rest of the group. He does but then waits and puts his vote on KWhit and then later changes to Telle when she gets closer to Abe's total. It seemed like it could be a wolf who was unsure of where to go with his vote when he first moved off PB. If Abe is good I think we should look at RA. He made votes that put him (Abe) in danger of being lynched (specifically 318). He then made an odd ntn vote (which seemed caused by ntn's KWhit vote). On the other side, if Abe is bad I will be moving RA up quite a bit in the trust list. ntn and RA seem to have a weird link on day one. First ntn votes RA, then RA votes ntn. After a few changes ntn makes the KWhit vote and RA goes after ntn again. As I think this through we may have another option for day 2. If everyone else gets the same read that I am getting (I may be way off) but I see the following possibilities: 1) Abe is a wolf. If so than we should feel pretty good about RA and should look at ntn. 2) Abe is not a wolf. We then need to look at the possibility of RA and ntn being wolves (trying the play of maing one look good f the other is caught). Both possiblities seem to point to ntn. I wouldn't be against exploring the ntn angle to be honest. It may yield the highest percentage in return. Just early reactions but wanted to open it up to discussion. |
ntn is definitely in the discussion. I come from the school of thought that Day One votes shouldn't change much. The ones who do are usually wolves, because who else has any information, really? There is a modifier for this particular game in the PB reveal, as that was a vote changing reveal that will add at least one normally unexpected vote change to many people's votes. But even allowing for that, ntn still has some 2-3 other vote changes that aren't easy to explain. It could just be someone who is confused about the back and forth and wishy washy on his choice, but otherwise just a villager (and we have to allow for that possibility, because it happens a fair amount of time). But it could very well be someone switching around to hide his vote, too, which can only mean wolf.
The ntn vote, we learn about ntn. The Abe vote, we learn about a number of people I think. I would still lean toward looking at Abe, from that perspective, and then we'll get a scan in on ntn and look at things anew on Day Three. But it's definitely a direction to look. Frankly, if Abe is a wolf, I think we need to take a strong look at all Telle voters. |
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Gosh darn you to heck! |
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I would be happy to discuss my votes. |
Just to be cleard, deadline is Monday at 9EST, not tonight, right?
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Yep. But asking that question doesn't clear you.... :D |
My first vote was basically a placeholder on one of the folks with a vote already. I knew that I would probably change that first vote when I had time to read things more closely.
When I did get some time, I chose to not get a tie going so I voted for the person who was winning the vote at that time... PB After PB did his reveal, I voted for Kwhit, because I thought he had a vote on him already. (Clearly I was in error there) I did not like going with Abe or Danny then. As Abe had just given some sort of roleclaim and something Danny had done made me think he was not a wolf. So I went after one of the folks with one votes. (I was using the last vote count I saw.) Finally, as it was clear that vote was not going to bring others to it. I chose to be on Telle. At least I did not have good vibes from her. (no vibes actually) |
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Drat. I usually go by the thread title, but w/o a day or date on this one, I wanted to double check. |
EF, I appreciate having you take an active role in the conversation with the role you have. It is nice having at least one player around to chat with that I can trust is working for the same goal I am and that is not going to be dead come the next deadline.
My thought on the Abe thing is that we do allow him one more day before turning up the heat on him. I want to have the knowledge of what took place with the D1 votes but I also think that the seer either scanned him tonight or will do so tomorrow night if we bypass him for this vote. I know that someone has suggested he might be the cunning wolf. It is possible, but it would be pretty poor luck on our part to have the cunning wolf dead to rights, only to allow him to get away and then be scanned. Could it happen? Sure, but the odds are higher that: 1.) He is a vanilla villager - six good roles, four bad roles, one convert, sixteen remaining players. Two of the good roles claimed, leaving fourteen unknown players for nine "roles" and five vanilla villagers. 2.) He is a wolf or convert, but not the cunning - five of those roles I'm going from memory on the number of roles, so someone correct me if I'm remembering them wrong. So, summary from above: - it is 5x more likely that he is vanilla than cunning wolf - iti is 5x more likely that he has another "non good" role than cunning wolf That does not mean that he is not the cunning wolf ... it is certainly possible. But my choice would be to play the odds here, give our seer a chance to resolve D1 for us, and see if there is another tack to play for D2 without knowledge one way or the other. |
I'm making a couple of seer assumptions here, in addition to "Abe = not cunning":
1.) The seer will actually scan Abe over one of the first two nights. 2.) The seer will out Abe by Day 3 if he is a wolf. If the seer intends to play it differently then that will certainly throw off my suggested approach. |
I've been turning it over and I can't advocate pushing Abe as a lynch. I was in this spot in Danny's game for three straight days and it was hands down the worst WW experience I've had. I would prefer to leave it to the seer or the wolves to settle or at least address it in a day or two. I think there are a couple of different ways I may look and yeah, ntn's vote is one of those places.
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I would imagine the seer would scan, but even if Abe is a wolf why would the seer make a 1-1 trade if they werent getting heat. I say we lynch Abe, otherwise it's day 1 all over again. |
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If we're looking at the odds on our first day, we should use 17 (total people playing not counting Scoob) as our demoninator. Odds of us picking the cunning wolf with our day1 vote: 1 in 17, 5.88% Odds of us picking a vanilla villager (provided all roles listed are in the game: 7 in 17, 41.18% Odds of us picking a non-cunning wolf OR convert with our day1 vote: 4 in 17, 23.53% Odds of us picking a roled villager with our day1 vote: 5 in 17, 29.41% It's about 7x more likely that he is vanilla rather than the cunning wolf. It's about 4x more likely that he is another "non good" role (convert/wolf) This all assumes that our picks on day1 was completely random, which isn't completely the case. |
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I appreciate it, but I'm okay now. Sure, EF was a dork, but I forgive quickly. EF you are forgiven and its forgotten, even though you never asked for an apology, you don;t have to. All done. Please don't not vote me simply because I've been irritated in this game a few times. Dont; vote for me because I'm awesome to have around! |
Karma is a word that I'm not allowed to use in this thread. I thought that Jackal and EF would find this especially fitting. My first Be a Pro in NHL 10, drafted by the Flyers at 16 overall. Who was drafting 17? Yeah, the 'Guins. GUH!
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Sweet!!! By the end of that career you will be converted!!! |
As for other things. Sure Abe was being a dork acting like some teenage girl who didn't get a date for the prom but I won't factor that into my decision about who to lynch.
My decision is based upon what is best for the village. In my eyes there are two choices at the moment. One is Abe, the other ntn. If we lynch Abe we can learn a lot from what happened on day one. If we lynch ntn I think we may have a higher percentage play as far as finding a wolf but we may still be at square one after the day is over. Option one gives us a higher percentage yield for the future (knowing what was happening on day one). Option two gives us a higher percentage immediate yield but leaves us with nothing after that. With 3 candidates on day one we know that: 1 - villager 1 - roled villager (presumed with no cross reveal at this point) 1 - ??? There is a .32 chance that we had 3 random villagers up for a vote. Sounds like the old QS 2/3 puzzles at this point. |
Just posting what pops in my head at this point. I got thinking after that last post "3 random villagers".
Who introduced those characters? PB placed the first vote on Telle and the first vote on Abe. JAG placed the first vote on PB. Not sure what that means yet, just putting that out there for thought. |
I think the movement away from RA bears looking into as well.
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Correcting this:
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I think not. I actually had to go back and redo it because I could not figure out faceoffs to save my life so I am a left wing instead. This time, thanks to two assists in the prospect game, got drafted 9'th by Edmonton. Hmmm, maybe I would rather have been a Flyer. |
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I am VERY bad at faceoffs. Hence all careers are either goallie, defense or winger. :) |
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Disagree there. You net a wolf, you ALWAYS wind up learning more, just from the maneuvering of various people as the day / votes progress. It adds up. It adds up no matter who we lynch, truth be told. If you think ntn's a wolf, or more specifically, if you think ntn is more likely a wolf than Abe, then in my mind, he's who you should be pushing for. |
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Sorry. My insanely long title doesn't allow me to fit in the entire deadline thing. |
Vote Abe
sorry dude, I hope you die a horrible death. |
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The extreme risk is if ntn is a villager. If we go that route and he is a villager then we would have pretty much wasted 2 days. With the Abe lynch we have a chance to learn something no matter what the result is. |
If it is gonna be between me and Abe, well my path is clear.There is clearly a better chance to get a wolf if I am not voted for. (and I realize y'all don't see that as a clearly.)..
Vote Abe |
Morning all
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I'm just about positive that I will not be around for deadline tonight. So I'll be getting my vote in relatively early. I also think I know where I want to vote today but I'm going to be holding off to see if any new information emerges today that makes this easy.
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Just to stir up some talk...
vote ntn |
Very busy today at my job, and we're short one person, so I won't be able to check in as much. I'll vote a little later.
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If we lynch Abe and find out he's a villager, will we have learned anything? If we think the seer would have scanned Abe (fairly likely), then I think looking elsewhere could give us more information in the long run. |
We've gotten off to a very quiet start this morning.
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Sure, we learn that the people moving off Abe likely are skewed towards good. |
EF, can you explain to me again why NTN is a higher value proposition today than Raiders Army? If the goal is to set up a two man game involving Abe again (not sure I'm that interested, would prefer to either runaway on Abe or have two man race with two other participants, I think) then I want to understand the reasoning for candidate #2 a little better.
I certainly did not follow (or agree, if I did follow it correctly) your RA+NTN as co-wolves playing off each other logic. So I've pretty much discarded that piece of analysis. But further discussion on the merits of one vs the other are of interest to me. |
For what it's worth, and hopefully to generate some discussion.
NTN and RA's oddities at the end of the vote are the pair who've pinged my radar. Honestly, it takes a smarter man than me to glean a ton of useful information from that last minute cluster-you-know-what, so I'm tending to question the ones who were just, in my mind, out in left field. Neither ntn nor raider's explanations of their votes were particularly exciting. Of course, to play my own devil's advocate, it almost seems like too silly of play for the wolves to *not* sit in with the masses on that vote, but it's what I have to go on. |
And seeing hoop's post above - I'm in partial agreement here -- I don't think BOTH of them (ntn/RA) are wolves. I think one or the other may be.
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They moved off Abe onto another villager. That doesn't scream "skewed towards good" to me if Abe is a villager. |
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It does to me. If they are good they don't know the allegiance of Abe or Telle, but if Abe is good the wolves know both Telle and abe are good so there is no point in risking a late move to save Abe and move to Telle. |
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