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I'm even highly skeptical of the mass media already and have my thoughts that this may be overkill but the scientists are all saying let's use some social distancing and stay at home of we can. Just dont know what is so hard about that, do people dislike their families that much?
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GA canceled primary and sent the legislature home. I was at Kroger today near Emory and it was wiped. We actually stocked up about 2 weeks ago at Costco and Target, but there was no meat, almost no milk (got a gallon), absolutely no veggies except some organic carrots and various leafy greens. No bananas, no berries, just some pears and apples. No pasta or sauce, almost no canned beans and/or fruit, and very little bread (no cheese either). The cashier said they stock up overnight and open at 6, this morning there was a line around 5am to get in.
It's been nice for us so far, we went biking on the silver comet since it was a nice day. There were a good amount of people around, but we just stayed in our own little pack and had no interactions. Now that it will rain for a few days, hopefully it keeps people inside. We have not gone to a restaurant, movie theater, and all kids sports were canceled. Just hoping to wait it out. |
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I'm out of Slim Jims :( |
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Italy is the model. I don't see how we end up on a path any better than Italy and I think we end up on a worse one (younger population balanced out by a less healthy one and a much crappier health care system). Quote:
And this is where I keep vacillating between. On the one hand, I see so many people doing so many good things and an effort that would have been unheard of if you told someone a year ago what was going to happen. But, on the other hand, we have all those other stories of people being horribly irresponsible who are endangering other lives so callously - some because they are in denial but others because they are just so goddamn selfish. I can kindof forgive the latter as I know that's where I was about a month ago but the latter will always be a problem. There's so much bad but there's also so much good going on - it heartens me but I'm not sure it's enough. SI |
I semi-waffled on the way to my small office on Friday, on what to do. After thinking about it, I called a morning staff meeting, told everyone we were going to close down at the end of the day, and to spend the day preparing to be productive working remotely for the immediate future. Everyone is on board, we should be fine, we're a mostly information-based non profit and can function pretty well from our separate ways.
One thing I said then was "Think about how much more real this feels than 48 hours ago. Now let's figure that it's going to get that much more real in the next 48, and the 48 after that." Even saying those words didn't bring me to this point... not even 48 hours later. (Exponent math is inherently hard) I now feel embarrassed that I really had to think about whether I was jumping the gun, and acting too rashly. |
Oh, and I rode the stock market all the way down, and then back up in the great recession. Not happening here. Everything I have control over is in cash or bonds. And I'm not even in love with the bond market. You cannot possibly add two and two and come up with "this is close to the bottom." The S&P is going to go to 1200.
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Very similar experience here. They were out of chicken breasts and ground beef. No bread anywhere. No milk but a few cartons of eggs left. You really get a sense for what brands and types people prefer. Especially in the soup and frozen pizza sections. I didn't go crazy prepper but bought some extra frozen meals and a tub of oatmeal that I could probably eat for a month if shit hits the fan. I should add that there didn't seem to be a ton of panic there. Saw one lady with a mask but that's it. Staff at the store was jolly and it appears staff is all hands on deck when it comes to re-stocking. Almost every other aisle had someone re-filling shelves (some appeared to be manager types too). The cashier I had looked to be in her 70's which made me sad. |
We could deal with this if we wanted to, and by we I mean the populous. It would hurt, but we're the richest nation on Earth. We could shut down for a month, cover most of the costs of that and then reevaluate.
But it's St. Patrick's Day weekend, so we won't. |
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For my 403b,I have like 10% in an index fund but the rest I kicked into money markets at the end of the two dead cat bounce days (Tuesday/Friday)*. I don't know what the bottom is, but we're nowhere fucking close. *oh, and the bizarre TIAA-CREF real estate fund that is this bizarre thing that moves slower than molasses and was some of my hedge against bad times that I'm trying to decide what to do with SI |
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The country was told by its leader that this was no big deal. It was contained, the number would soon be zero, and that it was a hoax perpetuated to bring him down. It shouldn't be a surprise that a segment of the population doesn't take this seriously. Also here is what happens when you throw your plans together on the fly with no advanced thinking. How many cases you think are being transmitted here and about to spread throughout the Chicago area?
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That scene is apparently being mimicked at numerous airports receiving European flights.
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Also what the UK is doing is either brilliant or completely nuts. Doesn't seem to be a middle ground. If it works, seems like it'll change our handling of pandemics forever.
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Currently the US has 2816 with 58 dead or a 2% fatality rate. This is likely overstated as not enough testing has been done at this point. I think it was Fauci that said last week the best guess was 1%.
Also the demographics is similar to China. https://abcnews.go.com/Health/learn-...ry?id=69588942 Quote:
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It sounds like New York is going to be an absolute shitshow in about a week.
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In Seattle, Chicago and Boston, sales of wine, beer and liquor this week were up 300 to 500 percent compared to sales in January.
Apparently, the number one priority for some folks is to have a fully stocked liquor cabinet to ride out the pandemic. Those Long Lines? People Stocking the Liquor Cabinet, Not the Pantry |
Wouldn't it make sense for customs to just let everyone through now? Seems way more dangerous to try to pick out the handful of possible cases and have everyone stand in a huge crowd than just let those people through and tell everyone to isolate for a few days.
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I think some of these people should have grown up in areas where they get blizzarded in for days on end. Man, those were the days. Head to the video store, pick up your girlfriend, make sure the shovel is in the car for when you get stuck and enjoy.
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Being English, I feel reassured by the general policy and explanations so far (with the exception of not shutting down football/sport earlier - I was concerned about my Dad going to the Leicester match even on Monday) I don’t get the hysteria about ‘Look at italy! Look at Spain! Do what they do!’. They have significantly more cases than us, and did nothing at all until they were deep in the mire. We have a virus with no vaccine, so as numbers increase, more measures are coming. People need to listen to the experts and what has actually been said, not hysterical and mostly uninformed random people on Twitter, celebrities, etc. The government have been transparent - they’ve said it’s not designed to completely stop it, which is impossible, it’s designed to control the spread as much as possible, relieving pressure on public services, and to avoid the sudden spike in case that other countries are seeing. If we just copy other countries‘ measures now, it seems as if it will just delay the huge spike, not flatten it out, and cause untold economic and social damage. We need to have faith in the scientists, who have studied this type of thing for years and decades, not people like us whose knowledge is based on a week’s worth of googling It reminds me of Obi-Wan: ‘Who is the more foolish? The fool, or the fool who follows him?’ |
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My buddy works for FDNY doing some kind of IT/Logistics. All EMT services also fall under the FDNY. He said they have 40 first responders already under quarantine and enough medical supplies for about 3 more weeks. |
My sense is more of a SK (probably not as good though) than Italy. We were late in preparing for it (e.g. test kits) but I have confidence it is getting better, response leadership (Fauci, Birx vs Trump) is emerging, and increased coordination is coming along.
So here's my question: US first case of reported coronavirus was Jan 20. It has been 55 days since then and we have 2816 infected and 58 deaths. I get the # infected is really higher but we can't tell right now because lack of testing. And I also understand 'some' deaths attributed to flu could have been the coronavirus.Because of this lack of obvious calamity in day 55, I am hopeful our experience leans more towards SK than Italy. Some possible reasons:
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Couple of snapshots from my community...
High school kid organizes other high school kids for volunteer babysitting service for working parents during school closure: Owners of possibly the largest day care in my part of town--which as of this moment will be OPEN tomorrow, despite all public and private schools in the are closing, and if it's open their three kids will be there interacting with other kids--yukking it up at St. Patty's Day Bar Crawl yesterday evening:  Dropbox - 90100197_10222176721956369_3222943635012059136_o.jpg - Simplify your life |
I hope every one of them drinking PBR and Bud Lite at a St. Patricks Day celebration get the virus on principal.
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Any FB feedback yet? Bet there is a backlash. |
Our schools are closed so obviously we are home schooling. There have been a lot of texts, facebook messages, etc...from parents that likely mean well offering to get the kids together for schooling, lessons, etc...
While it would be nice to have someone who is a teacher heading up the impossible 4th grade math, it completely defeats the purpose. |
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Had a post about segregating the vulnerable from the not-so-vulnerable. I agree with this in concept, it's sensible solution to me if things escalate for the worse and no end in sight. This assumes the segregated population has the "infrastructure/help" to stay segregated for a longer period of time.
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/...c8848a3683959a Quote:
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Your assumptions and data are completely irrelevant. Without actual data, and testing of everyone who has been sick you can't really draw any conclusions. Key Missteps at the CDC Have Set Back Its Ability to Detect the Potential Spread of Coronavirus — ProPublica Opinion: Early Coronavirus Testing Failures Will Cost Lives : Shots - Health News : NPR It's likely out there in much bigger quantities, with more deaths than we can currently attribute to it. |
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Nice. Just as long as they don't congregate too much in the restaurants & common areas, and have early warning checkups (e.g. temperature checks), sounds like the ideal situation. Assume they have nurses onsite also. Are you guys happy with them? No significant complaints from in-laws? Can you share the name and $ range? |
The new Trump slogan appears to be, LEEEROY JENKINS!
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Saw this on facebook today. Not sure if the person who reposted believes it or was mocking it.
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It is pretty sad seeing how selfish many of the people we know are being. My wife's at-risk mother (3 heart surgeries in the past) has been going to the casino, nar-Anon meetings, etc. Didn't bother to get any supplies ahead of time. Just totally disregarding the advice of the CDC. I just hope it doesn't end up with her and her husband in trouble in the coming weeks. We have cut off doing anything with them in person until things calm down.
We've isolated ourselves as well as possible. My wife works from home, I'll be working from home starting tomorrow. The kids are home from school after they closed down on Friday. I'll have to go get my 78-year-old father from a rehab facility (he has a knee problem after he tore a ligament in his knee a couple of months ago) on Tuesday. Hoping to keep our house as a safe haven for him. He's been living with us since last October due to increasing mobility issues that made living in an apartment by himself untenable. |
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Culture of life and all that. |
wow Lathum that's a whole lot of crazy. Exactly NONE of the things QAnon has predicted has ever happened, so they just move on to the next event to get ready for.
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NFL draft has been postponed.
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I work in a NJ Casino... we’ve been busy all weekend... people are out, gambling, drinking, eating at the restaurants..
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When in doubt, overreact.
This is becoming a variant on Pascal’s Wager. Overreact, and we’re wrong... people lose out on a night at the bar, a spaghetti dinner, a week’s pay. Bummer. Underreact, and we’re wrong, and we watch ten times too many people suffer and die. Humanity-changing effects. |
Words I NEVER thought I’d be saying:
Everyone needs to listen to what Ted Cruz and AOC are saying. |
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Cats and dogs, living together. Mass hysteria! Si |
I know this is dark, even for the gallows humor going around now, but I had a chuckle about this:
ISIS tells its terrorists not to travel to Europe -- because of coronavirus Headline: "ISIS tells its terrorists not to travel to Europe for jihad — because of coronavirus" SI |
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Any noticeable demographics? Predominantly younger or just across the board? |
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Keeping schools open lasted less than 48 hours. Now schools will be closing starting Wednesday. MN is up to 35 positive cases and 1422 people tested. In the past 24 hours they tested 560 people. |
MD is closing casinos, racetracks, and other revenue generators. We’ve only got about 30 confirmed cases, but are properly realizing that those numbers are close to useless due to lack of testing resources.
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Antibiotics aren’t going to have any impact on a viral illness. Fever reducing medicine ain’t going to help you breathe like a ventilator. To this point, numbers in the US have increased at the same exponential rate and that’s with a lack of available testing. Seattle is already a mess and NYC is not going to be long behind. I don’t think optimism is warranted at this point. Hopefully I’m wrong and some of these local measures will be sufficient. |
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Never a lack of creativity with these guys. From the article, "Any sick jihadists already in Europe, however, should stay there — presumably to sicken infidels" |
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Okay, maybe not zpack but possibly tamiflu and like in maybe lessening the symptoms. I do agree that it doesn't seem we have enough data to really know, however the lack of literature on treatment (e.g. "just take tamiflu to help reduce mortality") probably indicates it's not as effective. Viral Pneumonia: Symptoms, Causes, Diagnosis, Treatment Quote:
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368 deaths in Italy in the past 24 hours.
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Just received a call from the school district with a survey.
1. Does the student have access to a PC, smartphone, smart device? Yes or No 2. Does the student have access to the internet? Yes or No. |
My car wash sent me updated policies on how they are handling Covid so I def feel more at ease
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36 now with 350 tests pending with at least one now in my county. ETA: I also want to say I find the Ohio Director of the Department of Health, Dr. Amy Acton, HOT. She can wash my hands any day. |
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20 here in Fulton County with another 40 or so in surrounding counties. |
I was out briefly this morning. Our small Tacoma suburb was dead except for some activity at Safeway. The south part of tacoma that I drove through was a ghost town.
I'm curious to see what the drive to work tomorrow morning looks like. |
My county here In SC has had its first POS test for the virus today. Governor ready to cancel all schools in the state
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Daniel Goldman, the lawyer who handled the Democratic side of the House Impeachment Trial has announced he has tested positive for the Virus, He's mostly through the worst of it he says, and his wife who is also showing symptoms, can't be tested in NYC unless she's admitted.
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Just talked to one of my best friends. He is a firefighter in Cincinnati. For those familiar with the city his station handles mostly OTR, it is the ghetto. He said it is calm right now but they are expecting it to get really bad there and once it does it is going to rip through that community.
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NCAA - No brackets for canceled tournaments
I am disproportionately annoyed this isn't happening. SI |
4 cases in Missouri.
2 in St louis county, which is next door to where I live. |
Ohio closing all bars and restaurants as of 9 PM tonight. Carry out and delivery still allowed.
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From WaPo:
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The Trump voters are going to all kill themselves in order to own the libs. |
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I read this as a large amount of undetected cases in Italy skewing the stats. Just too overwhelmed at this point to test. Not to say that there are not other factors too. |
We're getting to the point where you have to question if "flattening the curve" is worth decimating entire industries and putting the capable people out of work and in danger to protect the elderly and infirm. That said, I certainly don't have the answer.
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Testing in South Korea showed a massive peak in the 20-29 age group in the groups of contaminated people. |
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Illinois doing the same. No news yet on Michigan but I wouldn't be surprised if we're not far behind. As of this moment, it's business as usual where I work. Scheduling hasn't changed, email this weekend from the parent company was of the 'circle the wagons' and encouragement variety. Quote:
As someone who's in such an industry, though not as bad as some others like the airlines, I'm leaning yes here. If you don't, you cause more damage probably through the various ripple effects. Definitely a darned if you do, darned if you don't scenario, but I'd rather lose little than lose big. |
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I would like to read more about demographics and critical/not critical/fatal statistics. Can you provide a link that has this by country? |
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Coronavirus Age, Sex, Demographics (COVID-19) - Worldometer    And detailed stats per country: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries I dunno if you can get those demographics broken down by country tho. |
I'm trying to stick with the position, right now, that we are amidst such uncertainty here, that we are all bound to say things that, in the fullness of time, will appear to be unwise or unfounded. And those things we have said or done will have been born of ignorance or misinformation, rather than deep defects in our humanity.
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All ages, shapes, and sizes.. with Philadelphia casinos closed, Atlantic City seemed to be busy.. Saw a few people wearing gloves, but most were acting like everything normal.. Governor Murphy said yesterday, “no plans to close casinos”... |
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That seems prudent. Some industries & their workers are probably better prepared for this than others. I think of the folks that work for hourly wages in bars and restaurants as some of the most financially vulnerable folks in the country....in Ohio's case it sounds like they're putting together some kind of safety net to make sure those folks aren't suddenly unemployed and on the streets/shelters en masse. |
Illinois closing bars and restaurants
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"President Trump says he is unaware that his administration disbanded the pandemic response team established by the Obama administration."
This fucking guy. |
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That is most definitely the case. Also, the high average age of active cases (not just deaths) is 99% an indication that they had to pretty much abandon most of the proactive testing and a disproportional number of tests are done on people with at least (!) medium symptoms that actually seek out medical help. And the later you discover it, the worse the odds of recovery. Even with no specific medication, proper medical care from, say, day 2 of symptoms is much prefereable to proper care from day 4 or 5. The System simply collapsed with not enough tests, emergency beds (with breathing aparatus) or qualified personel for the onslaught that hit them. And that was due to missing the first cases (bad luck more than anything else) and while they close traffic from China the virus spread to the point where 3 weeks later an avalanche of already very sick people started arriving in hospitals. And as soon as you move past 'capacity' death rates go up by a lot. And remember patients im china on average stayed 3 weeks in intensive care before dying or being on the path to recovery, so once you are past capacity the system is breaking down for a long while. And remember that the majority of cases is concentrated in just parts of the country. .y hope for here (Germany) is that there is no indication the first wave was missed (and even now a lot of cases can be connected and traced rather than coming out of the blue and in bad shape already) and the fact we have by far more intensive care spots per capita than both Italy and Spain. Basically it would have to be substantially worse numbers to crash the system like that and so far and with at least a few measures enacted we might end up ok ... |
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One more Factor not mentioned enough, largely because tougher to quantify/qualify: Smoking. Which is not exactly surprising for a respiratory infection and also is likely to contribute a lot to the sex disparity (which is consistent with other respiratory infections and diseases). China has an especially big difference in women smoking and men doing so. |
Trump back to complete nonsense ranting.
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Good point. I had wondered about the gender discrepancy & had heard about the smoking effect, but didn't put the two together.. |
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As I read this, the first words to come to mind was death panels. Not saying that you meant it in a callous way or anything like that. Just the words that popped into my head. I don't have any answers either. It is an interesting social observation nonetheless. |
Anecdotal for sure but back in early February (in St. Louis county) I had about two weeks where we were missing unusually large amounts of kids. I mean one class of 24 had 13 absent one day and all 6 of my classes were missing at least 15-20% of the kids. Lots of coughing, lots of negative flu tests. There are always certain bad periods in the winter but I haven't seen anything like this in years.
So I saw this research on twitter (and this is through Sam Harris not Donald Trump or Clay Travis something :) ) about the number of people who tested negative in Missouri, California, Massachusetts, and Washington state for the flu the past 10 winters (black being this year) with flu-like symptoms. Seems like COVID-19 may have arrived a lot earlier than we thought. (Being scientists they get into a lot of other possible explanations but say Missouri is the most unusual) Not sure if that is a bad thing meaning it will soon be out of control or a really good thing that the death rates etc may be way off due to untested and this has already hit a big chunk of the population. Interesting nonetheless... Caitlin Rivers, PhD on Twitter: "Regions 7 and 10 and a number of states are showing some unusual activity, particularly CA and MO. But we have important caveats (click each picture to see more). 2/3… https://t.co/OaZus9eY9O"  |
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Coronavirus Update (Live): 169,211 Cases and 6,492 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer |
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Everybody in my office was sick around the middle of February too, and it particularly stuck out to me at the time that several people were complaining of headaches, which is a common enough problem when sick but not usually the first thing people complain about. Of course now I have to wonder... |
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Yeah I don't claim to know more than the scientists or the people paid to do this but often they are in Atlanta/DC/whatever aggregating data from everywhere. I thought it was really unusual at the time and even joked with my principal we might get a flu day off. Again if true that it started earlier it could actually be a bad thing that a bunch of people are going to soon be really sick but it could also be the opposite that the death rate is not going to be as high as the 3% they are sometimes talking about. |
Dola: Of course I live in what has now become a red state so while Illinois just 20 minutes away is cancelling schools, closing bars/restaurants, ours is one of the only states in the country still having their state basketball tournament and clinging to the asinine idea that there are under 10 cases in the entire state of Missouri. So I am certain we will react here in the dumbest way possible.
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"Reckanizing."
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!remindme 5 years :p SI |
One thing that I've been very impressed with. We've really upped our meme game with coronavirus. It's the protest songs of this era... (if protest songs only took 30 seconds on the crapper to come up with and would be seen by like 1/1000th of 1% of the population).
SI |
Fed is definitely worried.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fe...?mod=home-page Quote:
Initial Futures reaction Quote:
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Yeah, same thing in my office. There was some bug going around later last year/early this year that kept people out for a few days to a week. Thought it was a bad case of the flu. Don't know of anyone that went to the doctor from it. Read recently that the same thing happened around the same time in other areas. Not sure if they're all connected to this, but that may be the reason why some are treating this as nothing more than another occurrence of that bug. |
The Fed is largely out of weapons now and Dow futures are crashing.
Congress and the President have to do much more starting with fixing the testing problems for the virus. The economy is secondary to the health crisis. So long as it looks like we're losing the battle with the virus, we can't fix the economy. |
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It will be both most likely. If the CFR (Case Fatality Rate) hits 3% at the end of the main wave (be it May or August) it will mean the system was overloaded and even then the actual rate will be a lot lower since the US seems much more likely to have people with mild symptoms never get to a doctor, much less get tested. From what i gathered the CFR will be about 1ish for countries without overloaded systems, 3ish for those that are initially. Even Italy should hopefully come down a lot with time as social distancing effect kicks in. Plus most viruses tend to get less potent as time passes ... It will be intereting what comes out of the first studies in China testing for antibodies in people not having been treated for the Virus. |
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Let them, and their mentality, die. |
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He ever did anything else? |
We just got a call from the school system. The one case so far in our county was an employee of one of the schools.
Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk |
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/t...sultPosition=1
I am not endorsing any of the hate being directed at this guy and his family. Full Stop. The frustration I have is this. Quote:
OWN YOUR SH*T! Of course that was your intention. The article from the previous day clearly laid out all the things you intentionally did with the knowledge that you were keeping it out of the hands of people that needed it! If they needed it, they would pay top dollar for it. This is how the business worked. That was the game was played. To claim ignorance now? No, that is the person that you are. Own it! |
Dude at the gas station just said Virginia shut their borders. No one in or out.
St. Louis County and St Charles county schools closing. St Louis county banning gatherings over 50 starting March 18. The world is ending. |
Virginia did not close the border.
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Then what is protecting the rest of us from Virginians! :eek: |
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No shit. What are they going to do next, secede from the Union? I didnt think they did. Not sure where the gas station dude got his info. |
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I don't get it |
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