|
Didn't read Coffee as Santa, but I figured both he and Martin were villagers. I feel very strong about Autumn being a wolf. He made strong effort to link CW to Jackal and has tried to piggy back on others sticking their neck out while laying under the radar himself.
|
Just a note here, but we are at en end game scenario now. There are three players we should not vote tonight. DT (cleared) and Juggler and I. There is at least one wolf (and possibly two) out of the other three players. Those players are
Lathum Autumn Raiders Army Votes should only be for those players to increase our chances of getting a wolf. |
If we happen to a hit a wolf tonight that is not the cunning, then Juggler and I get thrown back into the mix with everyone else for finding the last wolf.
|
Looked over all the posts from today. Gotta go with:
Vote Raiders Army His actions are just way too suspicious. Can't believe I spent the last two days on the freaking seer. Anyway, who I would consider my best suspect is Danny, but with him passing the scan, he's either the cunning or safe. I'll go with a surer bet. Since he came in, RA put the capstone on PackerFanatic, tried to start an early run on Chief the day the wolves took him out, went with sal instead of Jackal when this didn't pan out, and then went with Martin (to be fair, on this one both the prime suspects were villagers). Some of that is excusable for him coming in late to the game, but either he's the unluckiest guy or something is just wrong. I can't help but see the wolves using his late entry to try to get some more obvious votes in. I just can't write off all the misteps. He's hit #1 on my list. Have more detailed thoughts, but head says it's sleepy. We'll see where things come up tomorrow. G'night folks. |
Just to see if my gut is right, my guess is the last two wolves are juggler and Autumn. I wont be voting Juggler today for the reasons I posted, but throwing this out there in case I end up right :)
|
Didn't catch the new page, Danny. It'd sure be nice to get the cunning today :) . That would pretty much be the nail in the coffin, but that's just my positive attitude.
Agree that we need to go with one of the three non-scanned, non-guaranteed villagers. Open to some discussion if there's something I'm missing, but I still think RA is the best bet of the bunch. That early Chief vote and switch when it went nowhere sells it for me. Gnight folks! |
what is the plan for weekend play?
|
Well, that didn't go well.
|
Well then, in my mind I'm convinced. There are six players left. DT, Juggler, and Danny are all cleared. I know I'm good, so that means that Lathum and Autumn are the remaining wolves.
|
Wait...okay. Only DT is cleared right? Juggler and Danny could be the cunning.
Being that I don't think Lathum is a wolf...I'll have to go with Autumn for today. VOTE AUTUMN |
I'll be out most of the morning, gotta take my youngest to get his stitches out. I'm not sure who I'll vote, but obviously it won't be me. I will argue against myself when I have time, since I think a vote for me ends the game, but I'll have to do that later. All I can say is that a vote like Raider's, picking me over Lathum for no reason, isn't going to win us the game.
It's entirely possible we have two wolves out of the three of us, something I'll be keeping in mind as I look that over. Also possible Juggler's playing the quiet wolf and I'm barking up the wrong tree with Danny. I certainly haven't done too good so far. Though I have to say Danny's strange play makes a lot more sense if he's the cunning looking for a scan. That's the only explanation that's made sense to me so far. Lathum and RA are two players I don't have a strong read on right now, so I'll have to come back to this later. |
Quote:
No weekend deadline. Monday will be the next day. |
Quote:
Word. |
I guess I haven't missed much. My time will be limited today, customer's are breathing down my neck and so are the kids.
I hate being targeted as I'm not sure Raider's Army is where I'd want to go with a vote, and I don't want to be forced into the wrong vote just because I'm on the block. The place I feel surest about is Danny, who's been pinging me all game, and him being cunning makes a lot of sense. That feels the highest percentage play for me, versus choosing randomly between Lathum and Raider's Army, neither of whom have struck me as wolf-like. I'm not going to have a lot of time to pore over votes. I'd love to hear people's arguments for Raider, those who are voting him. Those who are voting me I'd love to hear your arguments too, as I feel I've played the way I always do. I know I usually get heat as I talk a lot in thread. Other guys slide by without saying much and somehow that makes me more wolfish than them. Certainly if I was a wolf I would have piled onto Jackal along with Chief and Danny. I didn't in order to keep it closer and see if we could draw a wolf out. No wolf is going to stick their neck out like that when there's a simple play that can draw them trust. Raider's Army just doesn't have much evidence either way, having come in late and essentially missed two day's voting. Lathum I would be more likely to vote. He's been quieter than usual at spots, playing the helpful villager other spots with his analysis. I'd have to look back at it to see whether I still would trust it or whether it's a wolf guiding us. |
Vote count?
|
As of post 615:
Autumn 2 - Danny (600), Raiders Army (610) Raiders Army 1 - thejuggler3 (604) |
I have to ask myself why would Autumn not want to vote RA and instead look at me. Either he and RA are both wolves and he wants to push it my way, or RA is a wolf.
If Autumn is a wolf why not just vote RA and be done with it? I am thinking maybe they are both wolves but don't want to tip their hands but RA is the more likely choice. VOTE RA |
I hope someone is around at deadline to break ties
|
In before dinner and kids. I know I should just vote RA to save myself, and maybe I will. But I'd like to make an educated choice - not being sure who the wolves are, I don't know if they're the ones encouraging the RA vote. I haven't had time today to sit and look at things myself, and I hate to be led by the nose to voting him instead of you, Lathum.
I'll be back after the kids are in bed. |
As of post 619:
Autumn 2 - Danny (600), Raiders Army (610) Raiders Army 2 - thejuggler3 (604), Lathum (617) |
All right, the rest of the family went out for a bit so I have a couple moments to post something. And I had the time doing dishes to think things through. Unfortunately I can't read posts while I do the dishes, but I realized I don't need to if I just examine the end game scenarios. We know the situation, know what the wolves have to do and so we should be able to ID them. I did this thinking for my own benefit so you'll have to excuse me leaving myself out of the analysis.
I have two scenarios to examine. One is if there is one cunning wolf among the scanned and one among the rest of us. The other is that there are two wolves among the non-scanned. In either case the wolves just need to escape today and they win. If they get caught today then they have to escape one more lynch vote tomorrow. We have to factor in that they're playing for the end game then: hopefully escape lynch tomorrow, but if not make sure that the last wolf is out of the running tomorrow. Let's take the first: either Danny or Juggler3 is a wolf, and then one of Raider's Army or Lathum. Both Danny and Raider's Army have had a lot of attention before today, they would both be likely targets, Lathum and Juggler are more under the radar. The wolf strategy here depends mostly on whether the wolf is Lathum or RA. If Lathum is the wolf, then all they have to do is avoid attention today, keep the vote focused on me and RA. Danny went into the day saying he was heading my direction. Lathum expressed an intention to vote RA last night. Juggler voted RA fairly early. So everything matches there. If RA was the wolf, not Lathum, then the wolf strategy would be to have the scanned wolf vote RA, but try to lean things to me. They can always switch their vote last minute to swap the lynch if possible - if not they go into tomorrow looking clear for voting for a wolf. If the scanned wolf votes me but RA gets lynched and is a wolf, the scanned wolf looks bad and goes down the second day. Here, Juggler voted RA, so could be following this scenario. Danny however voting me would stand out tomorrow if RA gets lynched, and probably get himself lynched. Danny/RA seems an unlikely combination. Now let's assume both Danny and Juggler are good guys. Lathum and RA are the last two wolves. They're in a tighter position - they have to get me lynched today to win, but RA is a likely target. If RA gets lynched, Lathum's got to look good enough tomorrow to deflect the vote to Danny or Juggler. So obviously Lathum votes RA, RA votes me, and if they can Lathum switches later. Again this matches with what's happening. So the vote situation we're in now matches either Danny and Lathum as the wolves, Juggler and RA or Lathum and RA. I'm not sure which of those is the most likely, but 2/3 of them involve Lathum, so it makes more sense for me to vote Lathum than RA. VOTE LATHUM |
I'm not sure how you can vote Lathum being that he was key to bagging a wolf (IIRC).
I'm sorry I'm not more help right now, but to be honest if I were voting for someone, it'd probably be me. My voting record is beyond abysmal. I don't really have anything in my defense other than I'm a vanilla villager, which isn't anything at all. I think we'll have to hit a wolf tonight and it'll be hard to root out the cunning. |
Well, again I haven't been able to look back at voting history, this is all based on endgame stuff. I don't recall how Jackal's lynch went down. If someone has voting history? I'll look at it but i think we all know wolves sometimes have great voting histories. This seems to me a way to get around that.
And frankly in one of those three scenarios you and Lathum are pack mates ;-) |
Quote:
Quote:
These two. He stayed on Jackal the whole time when CW could've been a viable lynch. |
I'm not sure why I'm defending him either. :)
|
That does look pretty good, doesn't it. Huh. Well that makes me lean towards the RA/Juggler theory I guess.
|
I've got to get the kids to bed. It's not looking like we're going to have an active night, so I guess I'm going to hope that you guys are right ( and RA is right, in some sense) and switch for now. If they go down fast enough I'll be back to think some more.
unvote lathum vote raider's army |
That's funny and ironic. Anyhow, I can't switch my vote (in self-defense), but I can guarantee you all that we will lose the game if I'm lynched.
|
As of post 627:
Raiders Army 3 - thejuggler3 (604), Lathum (617), Autumn (627) Autumn 2 - Danny (600), Raiders Army (610) |
So at this point DT has a meaningless vote.
|
The only defense I have is why would I vote for MartinD and push him over CW yesterday prior to CW's reveal?
The bad thing is that MartinD was a villager as well, which doesn't help my case. :) |
Quote:
Yes, and if I were a wolf at this point, I'd say good game villagers. But as I am a vanilla villager, I will say good game wolves. You played well. Congrats on your win. |
Quote:
Or he voted you initially because you're the other wolf and in the case he lynched, you look better. |
Spent a bit reading up. I'm not sure who the other wolf is. I'm still gold on my vote for RA (and I think we've got a wolf). If we're lucky, he's the cunning.
If RA is the cunning, then it's I'm torn betwen Autumn and Lathum. Autumn is a bit more likely due to Lathum's vote on Jackal, but I'll have to re-read all their posts this weekend. If RA's not the cunning, that brings myself and Danny into the mix. I'v been suspicious of Danny on and off the whole game. He's always been my #3 or so suspcious person, and I'm going to kick myself if he turns out to be a wolf (given my #1 choices have been a pile of you know what.) |
Whereas if RA's a wolf I think we look straight to Juggler. No way that Danny votes me if RA and he are in cahoots. However, I'm not sure how to determine between Juggler and Lathum. I guess if Lathum's voting record looks as good as RA suggests, then we vote Juggler. If Lathum offed Jackal like that as a wolf, more power to him.
|
I would have no reason at that point in the game to vote Jackal, if I am going to throw a fellow wolf under the bus it would be with a late deciding vote.
|
I'll take a couple minutes and read back now. Kids are asleep and I should be working but I feel lame not having a vote history down at this point.
|
I have to agree, Lathum, that's a stretch to imagine you pushing Jackal that early in the day. There was a vote on Raider's Army, but if you two were the wolves that shouldn't have spooked you so much that you'd push the brutal with so many other candidates out there. Though I have seen in the past you pull some amazing wolf moves.
I wish DT would get here and vote RA - I'm afraid that Juggler might be the other wolf and swap at the last second. |
....you better watch out....you better not cry....
ZOMBIE SANTA KNOWS ALL. |
That should be the sequel to this game. Zombie Santa.
|
Zombie Santa! I left out some warm brains for ya!
|
Apparently Raider's Army offed EagleFan. That's one method we didn't expect.
|
Long write ups like this in an endgame scenario always make me nervous
|
I hope we're not about to get paid back for the Christmas Miracle. It's the Christmas Massacre.
|
As I said before. Good game wolves. Even if we had been able to get one of you today, the cunning would've been difficult.
Nicely played. I'm guessing Lathum and Juggler are the wolves. |
Quite sorry, I got caught up in something and lost track of time. Processing now.
|
Sorry guys - was in an offsite retreat for work all day and didn't even get online. Ended up stopping in to say hi to my parents when I got back to my car from being in the city, and before i knew it it was 10PM and I hadn't left there.
My bad. |
I hope you were getting laid, EF, because you were killing us here.
|
Time draws near again. You have two suspects in mind. It must be Raiders Army or Autumn... both?
You finally decide on Raiders Army in a close vote (again depriving the Christmas spirit of his tie breaker). You find him and he just sits there and seems to have accepted his fate. "Silly fools" are his final words. Soon he is just a memory and you search him and find that he has an Al Davis fan club membership. "See, a wolf, we got one!!!!!" No, sadly it is just a misguided elf. Raiders Army was a vanilla villager. Then Autumn leaps towards DaddyTorgo and before anyone can react DaddyTorgo is down and no longer moving. DaddyTorgo was Jack Skellington, but you all knew that. Autumn and Lathum stare eye to eye, then thejuggler3 steps forward to stand next to Autumn. The two begin to laugh. They look at each other and utter one final word before launching themselves at Danny and Lathum... "fools..." Game Over!!! Wolves Win!!! |
Quote:
Could be... ;) |
| All times are GMT -5. The time now is 06:59 PM. |
Powered by vBulletin Version 3.6.0
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.