Two in a row!

Wow, what a sigh of relief

Great going guys!!

Well glad we got a bad guy.. I would love to hear some answers RPI.. you convinced me to move off of Lathum.. Would love to know why.

Sorry I didn't put up much of a fighjt, i was busy most of the day

You really had me going there Lathum.

Why don't you guys just think about what I did?

When I read Lathum's post, I _KNOW_ he is bad... my response yielded two possiblities:

1) I stir up conversation which can only help to cause a gaffe from the wolves.
2) The wolves mass-switch to me at the last minute, kill me, and it becomes plain as day who is a wolf and who isn't.

What good would it to for me to just vote Lathum and throw all my support behind him?

And stir up conversation you did.

Did you get the result you were looking for?

I think DC asked the questions running through my mind.

I'll take it a step further. RPI what would your trust/distrust list look like right now?

I don't know... I did feel like it was a fairly safe play though.

Worst case scenario is, before last night, we were up 6-3...

After I died it would be 5-3, then the night kill makes it 4-3. Lathum gets lynched tomorrow to make it 4-2, then the night kill makes it 3-2. I figure the last two would be easy enough to identify based on the mass-switch that would have had to occur to me at the last minute.

So that was the worst case scenario. I feel like we certainly gained more from me doing what I did than had I plainly said Lathum is lying and everyone should vote for him.

Also, now that you guys have the result of the lynching in hand, are you really all that confused why I did what I did?

What would you be thinking if you were me and you got home from work ~6pm and read Lathum's post?

Anyone have a voting-history to look at?

Well thats the thing I had the problem swallowing.. I honestly couldn't figure out why you would do what you did. I guess in hindsight I understand. I think in the process of trying to smoke out the weeds, you confused the hell out of me too.

That should read:

"

...

Worst case scenario is, before Day 5...

"

Yeah, I kept one today , this is it:

Chief votes Lathum (1)
Alan votes Jonathan (1)
RpI votes Lathum (2)
Jonathan votes Lathum (3)
Alan Unvotes Jonathan (0)
Alan votes Lathum (4)
Lathum votes RPI (1)
Dodgerchick votes Lathum (5)
Schmidty votes Lathum (6)
Rpi unvotes Lathum (5)
Rpi votes Jonathan (1)
Alan unvotes Lathum (4)
Mr.W votes Lathum (5)
Blade votes Chief (1)
Alan votes Jonathan (2)
Alan unvotes Jonathan (1)
Alan Votes mr.W (1)

I have end day totals, but not who switched when.

Gonna be away for a bit, movie night for me. I'll check back in a few hours.

Day 1

14 - Chief Rum votes Schmidty (1)
40 - Barkeep votes Lathum (1)
43 - Lathum votes Barkeep (1)
44 - Tyrith votes Alan (1)
50 - Blade votes Dodgerchick (1)
51 - Dodgerchick votes Blade (1)
52 - Anxiety votes Jonathan (1)
54 - Brian votes Mr. Wednesday (1)
56 - Mr. Wednesday votes RPI (1)
57 - Alan votes Tyrith (1)
58 - Schmidty votes Brian (1)
60 - spleen votes path (1)
63 - LSG votes spleen (1)
68 - Jonathan votes Anxiety (1)
76 - path votes Chief Rum (1)
81 - path UNVOTES Chief Rum (0) / path votes Tyrith (2)
83 - Alan UNVOTES Tyrith (1) / Alan votes path (2)


Day 2

112 - Chief Rum votes RPI (1)
153 - Jonathan votes RPI (2)
160 - Dodgerchick votes LSG (1)
165 - Lathum votes RPI (3)
170 - Schmidty votes RPI (4)
171 - Anxiety votes RPI (5)
185 - Blade votes Dodgerchick (1)
191 - Barkeep votes RPI (6)
192 - Brian votes RPI (7)
194 - LSG votes RPI (8)
195 - Alan votes Brian (1)
196 - RPI votes Brian (2)
199 - Anxiety UNVOTES RPI (7) / Anxiety votes Alan (1)


Day 3

263 - Chief Rum votes Tyrith (1)
280 - Blade votes Lathum (1)
282 - Blade UNVOTES Lathum (0) / Blade votes Brian (1)
287 - Tyrith votes Brian (2)
348 - Mr. Wednesday votes Tyrith (2)
349 - Brian votes Tyrith (3)
351 - Alan votes Dodgerchick (1)
357 - Blade UNVOTES Brian (1)
359 - Dodgerchick votes Alan (1)
360 - RPI votes LSG (1)
362 - Blade votes Brian (2)
366 - Lathum votes Tyrith (4)
374 - Jonathan votes Tyrith (5)
384 - Anxiety votes Tyrith (6)
387 - LSG votes Brian (3)
388 - Blade UNVOTES Brian (2) / Blade votes Lathum (1)


Day 4

412 - RPI votes LSG (1)
421 - Dodgerchick votes Jonathan (1)
422 - Brian votes LSG (2)
424 - LSG votes Jonathan (2)
428 - Chief Rum votes Blade (1)
435 - Blade votes Chief Rum (1)
438 - Jonathan votes LSG (3)
439 - Lathum votes Chief Rum (2)
441 - Dodgerchick UNVOTES Jonathan (1) / Dodgerchick votes LSG (4)
446 - Alan votes LSG (5)


Day 5

486 - Chief Rum votes Lathum (1)
489 - Alan votes Jonathan (1)
490 - RPI votes Lathum (2)
496 - Jonathan votes Lathum (3)
500 - Alan UNVOTES Jonathan (0) / Alan votes Lathum (4)
503 - Lathum votes RPI (1)
507 - Dodgerchick votes Lathum (5)
516 - Schmidty votes Lathum (6)
517 - RPI UNVOTES Lathum (5) / RPI votes Jonathan (1)
532 - Alan UNVOTES Lathum (4)
554 - Mr. Wednesday votes Lathum (5)
555 - Blade votes Chief Rum (1)
557 - Alan votes Jonathan (2)
563 - Alan UNVOTES Jonathan (1) / Alan votes Mr. Wednesday (1)

Ok, so I have trouble believing CR would cast the initial vote on Lathum if he were a wolf. I'll leave him out for now...

Jonathan's vote is not quite as un-suspicious... it was 2-0 at that point and looking like it could be a runaway, with the known good throwing his vote squarely at Lathum. So he does NOT get a pass for now.

Alan I am assuming good for now... maybe need to discuss later.

Lathum votes me... we know his deal.

DC and Schmidty then vote for Lathum. 1 of these 2 is most likely a wolf IMO (I'm assuming at this point that, with no apparant conversions, we're dealing with TWO remaining wolves.

I then unvote Lathum, Alan unvotes -- as I said Alan is assumed good for now but still needs to be evaluated more in-depth.

Mr. W's vote for Lathum is one that needs to be looked at closely -- he waited a VERY long time to make the vote. Something about his posting pattern made me think he was deciding whether or not the wolves could do enough to get the vote off Lathum (with 3 remaining living wolves, they would have needed to convince at least 1 non-wolf to not vote Lathum to force a tie or better). So Mr. W DEFINITELY needs to be discussed.

Blade's vote is also curious. If he was a wolf, he wouldn't want to be the last one voting Lathum in a runaway vote, and if he's not a wolf, he might have legitimately been confused (but I think his vote is very curious). So Blade also needs to be analyzed.

Therefore, for now, here is my list:

Safe: RPI-Fan
Probably Safe: Chief Rum, AlanT
Pretty Good: Dodgerchick
Concerned about: Blade
Highly Suspicious: Mr. Wednesday, Schmidty, Jonathan Ezarik

Man, I vote to lynch two wolves in a row and I still don't get any trust. :(

Well, I'd say you probably belong more on the "Concerned" list than "Highly Suspcious".

But to get onto the safe list you have to go out on a limb sometimes... even had I not been cleared already I'd have to feel I was quite safe given that I started the bandwagon on LSG and did not hesitate at all about Lathum (of course I would have defended myself more vehemently if I wasn't a 100% known good).

Alan/Chief: I'd appreciate it if you guys could post your detailed thoughts before the Night actions.

Also, Jon, you could do yourself some big favors if you tried to sort things out for us...

If there is still a Seer please test me.

I should say, I would appreciate ANYONE who posts their detailed thoughts in the near future. I have ample time to read through anything in detail tonight and make use of it in the morning.

My list:

Very good feel:
Dodgerchick - obviously
Chief Rum - no way does he even present analysis like he did and cast such a huge spotlight on a baddie if he were a wolf.
Jonathan Ezarik - he voted against LSG and Lathum. I can see sacrificing 1 wolf, but 2? Highly doubt it

Good:
AlanT - based on his earlier posts, I believe him to be good based on his association to Spleen
RPI-Fan - I was really, really confused when he swapped off of Lathum onto Jonathan but I see why he did it. I've seen this play before and more often than not, it's a good guy play.

Lukewarm:
Schmidty and Mr. W- I don't even know what to think of them. They missed 2 votes and since I base most of my analysis off of voting records, it's hard to get a feel.

Not good:
Blade6119 - Well, he's the ONLY one who did not vote LSG or Lathum... ouch. Very damning.

I'll make some comments. Let me have some time to look over the votes from the entire game.

I'm notorious for holding my votes a long time. As I said upthread, in particular, I was hoping for some back-and-forth that would give me more to think about in regards Lathum's false reveal, and when that never really materialized, I went with my own analysis of the scant info we had.

DC, look a the votes today. I come in and its like 7-1-1. As a wolf, if i knew lathum was evil, why would i not vot him. hell, by noon it was clear who was dying. If i was evil, i would have voted him then.

You need to think about that for a second. If your a wolf, and for 2 days in a row your partners are going down(and both days it was pretty clear who was dying(read bandwagon). Your telling me you think a wolf would be the only one not joining either bandwagon? I, of all people, would sell my wolf teamates down the river the second i thought it would benefit me. Id fake reveal seer and say i scanned lathum and he was evil. Not screw around all day and vote away from the bandwagon(again).

Lathum was on most of the bandwagons this game, and so were you. Your uncleared...i could try to make a case for you being evil, but i still think chief is the last bad guy. Thats why im trying to work this through with you.

I am in and out, as I am meeting family to celebrate my mom's birthday. I had just enough time to read the days events.

I am very happy you all were not misled by Lathum's "reveal".

I would love to give detailed thoughts, but my time is short. I will be back after dinner and share my thoughts, but it will likely be past most of your bedtimes. :(

Talk to you all soon.

Ok, my thoughts.

1st Level of Trust

• Myself - self-explanatory

2nd Level of Trust

• RPI - Confirmed good guy. His play today, though, was confusing. I understand what he says he was trying to do, and if it turns out the Mr. W is the last wolf, RPI gets MVP. For now, I'm going to continue to trust him.
• Chief Rum - As I've already stated, he came out first with a description of a role almost exactly like mine. It's possible that he was converted, but I agree with Alan in that I don't think any conversions have been made.

3rd Level of Trust

• Dodgerchick - She appears to have the same role as Chief and I. I don't get any negative vibes from her.
• Alan - He should be higher up on my list of trusted players (probably in the 2nd level), but something is holding me back. I go through phases when I believe him, and then five minutes later think he's full of crap. In other words, a typical Alan play. I will say, though, that the fact that he kept his belief of Brian's role quiet (and that Brian didn't die right away) as good signs in Alan's favor.

Unknowns

• Schmidty - He missed two votes in a row and has been quiet. Still, I don't get the sense that he's evil.
• Blade - An usual game from Blade, but he mentioned before the game started that he would be quieter this time. I don't get the sense that he's evil, though. I think he would be more involved if he was.

Suspected Wolf

• Mr. Wednesday - His play today was completely bizarre. He seemed to want to give Lathum the benefit of the doubt, regardless of how absurd Lathum's "reveal" was. He also tried to muddy the waters by throwing doubt on RPI.

Despite my rush and the fact I shouldn't be goaded into this, I must admit to curiosity to ask: why on earth am I your top suspect? As DC noted, there is no way I present the analysis I do and spotlight Lathum if I am a wolf. I also mention LSG as a strong wolf possibility the day she is lynched (although I voted for you, and I am still not sure I actually made a mistake there, you know).

But, yes, I'm very curious. Build a case against me, because I want to see it.

Quite simply, if you were a wolf and saw your allies going down, you really think you would sit idly by and not do anything. Myself, and i think everyone else, would try to take advantage of it.

Gee, what would be a good way to take advantage of lathum's impending doom(and it was clear he was doomed, be it today or tomorrow)...maybe presenting evidence hes evil?

Come on chief, the bad guys know who is good and evil...they know who to support and who not to. Look in old games, its usually the bad guys with the best voting records.

Chief, i dont have a case...i just see you presenting evidence and trying to be vocal about someone who was pretty clearly dying...and thats something id do as a wolf.

Ok , I analyzed the following. I looked at who the night kills were: Barkeep, Spleen, Anxiety, Brian I looked at who the confirmed bad day kills were: Lonestargirl, Lathum.

I tried to analyze who in these groups voted for who and when. I also tried to figure out who had the best voting "history" I noticed that no one who was night killed voted for a bad guy except barkeep voting Lathum night 1.

Trust:

RPI - 2 votes for bad guys, 1 no vote, 1 vote for a known good guy, 1 vote for a still unknown. I've trusted RPI for a while , and think I had figured out his role yesterday daytime. I now feel I was wrong though, but after a shaky afternoon still have RPI as my #1 trusted person. I don't think he's been converted and even though I was confused today I understand the logic in his actions today.

Dodgerchick - 3 votes for bad guys, 2 votes for unknown. The only player left in the game without having voted for a known good guy by now. Perhaps thats a sign of someone bad, but Dodgerchick has also had the most votes on bad people so far. I think if you go by voting records, DC probably has to be among the top trusted. Had a chance to save Lathum today but didn't pull the trigger.

Neutral

Blade - 1 vote for a bad guy, 1 vote for a known good guy, 3 votes for unknown players. I know I came out really strong at Blade yesterday. Part of me still wonders why he hasn't come out attacking much this game. His play has been off, however he states it for non-game reasons. I think I have started believing him a bit if for no other reason than normally he would have been chewing all over me by now.. the fact he isn't tells me something is up with him outside of the game. Not sure that it makes me feel better or worse about him being a WW though.

Chief Rum - 1 vote for bad guy, 2 votes for good guys, 2 votes for unknown players. This is an interesting person as I had disagreements with his thoughts on a few things this game so far. I felt he wasn't into his normal game earlier on to which he responded with alot of analysis last night. Granted a big part of it was based on things I had already said. The interesting thing for me is Chief is the only person with the exact same voting record as me. Since I know that I am good, I'll probably let Chief slide for now.

Slight Distrust
Mr.W and Schmidty - I will group them both together here. They both have the same voting record of 1 vote for a bad guy, 2 no-votes and 2 votes for known good guys. Both have done things I find pretty shady at times and have called them out for it, but the biggest problem I have with each is the lack of data for either of them. THe missing votes make it much tougher for me to analyze them.

Distrust
Jonathan - This leaves Jonathan. His voting record is 2 bad guys and 3 known good guys. No one else has voted for more known good guys then him. I've gone all over the map on Jonathan, thinking he was being wolfish to feeling good about him and back several times. Today I convinced myself that he was good when I felt there was a chance that RPI might have been persuaded to vote for him. Now that I know thats not the case, it makes me remove him from that area again. His 2 votes for bad guys were both in places that didn't necessarily seal anything and kind of fit right into the middle of the pack. I guess if I had to stake my life on one bad guy, it probably would be him for now.

I look forward to reading any novel....er.....analysis that Chief or Alan have to offer.

I have a sense of who I think are bad, but I'd like to see some more thoughts before I can solidify anything.

I guess I quieted the crowd!

I see I'm the only one that has Jonathan on their trust list. I guess I'll have to look back and check his posts again.

I'm curious to see what Chief has to say.

You have that kind of effect on people

Not true. I trust myself. :)

I honestly am back and forth on him and have been the past few days. I mainly have him at the bottom because right now I am running out of people to distrust. For me right now its either him or one of the Under the Radar folks (Mr.W or Schmidty). I honestly can't tell you which the better choice is though.

I'm heading to bed. Hope to be alive for more in the morning.

I sure didn't try very hard. I made an observation regarding his vote yesterday, wondered at whether we would lose anything by trying him again. I don't think I said anything else against him, aside from (once my vote was cast) suggesting that if Lathum were good (which he wasn't) we might want to look at RPI again.

Dola, if I'd been pushing hard against him, I would have had a LOT more to say this afternoon. I have a way of suddenly waxing loquacious when I think something silly is happening. :)

Until I had done my analysis, Lathum was just one among many suspects. Alan had his go at it, I and a couple others had voiced some suspicion, but I would say Jon Ez, yourself, myself, the UTR guys, etc. all were as likely to be targeted.

Not to belittle Alan's contributions, but as he noted, for whatever reason, there wasn't a real strong urge to go with Lathum until I posted my analysis. I had a large part in pointing a wavering investigation with many suspects at a player who turned out to be bad.

So while I see your point if your premise were true, I don't think it is at all. Lathum was no more under suspicion than many other targets, and had I done nothing, it is quite likely he would have survived today.

I haven't had a chance to look at Lathum's votes yet. Much of my analysis yesterday was based on LSG alone, so a whole new data point in Lathum could be quite revealing.

I still don't see Jon as a baddie, at least not before a ton of others get their shot. He was certainly not the killer on Night Three, when BrianD watched him/guarded him. He had a choice of voting for me or LSG to try to save himself yesterday, and he chose LSG, the wolf. That was an open chance to avoid a wolf vote without looking suspicious, and he voted for the wolf. I just can't see him throwing another wolf under the bus to save himself. Throwing one already fairly doomed to gain trust for oneself is one thing, but Jon was actually the leading votegetter when he voted. I don't quite get why some have latched onto him as a likely wolf; IMO, he's one of my more trusted, right about with DC and RPI.

I am going to look at the voting patterns some more and see what I can come up with.

Well, I can't believe I spent the better part of an hour looking back at everyone's posts and... I'm right back where I started from.

I noticed what seemed to be clues, but my it's possible my paranoia is getting the best of me. Sometimes it's the people wolves DON'T mention that makes me suspect.

Sometimes that it the way of it. It doesn't hurt to put your suspicions out there, though. We can certainly consider them for ourselves and decide if they are good points worth noting when we choose our next lynch target.

Alright, I'm pretty tired so I'll post what I found:

Lathum was trying to cast suspicion on Alan, Chief Rum, and Schmidty quite a bit. I'm sure he did that to confuse us but now that we know Lathum was bad, I feel these guys are actually good.

LSG was doing the same to Jonathan and we know Jon voted for her and Lathum so how can he be bad? The thing about WW is that it comes down to timing and unfortunately for Jon, the timing of his votes is what condemns him.

Ugh, I just don't know. I guess we'll find out some more with tonight's kill.

dola,

Note to self, this leaves RPI, Mr. W and Blade. Since RPI "passed" the test, I'm taking him off the list.

I'm interested to hear Blade's side of the story cuz I know it's coming.

Just quoting it to look at my list sometime tomorrow.

That actually is interesting, and somewhat supports my belief Jonathon is good. I lean toward them being good as well (and yourself).

Blade and MrWednesday are probably my top suspects at the moment.