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My cousin's wedding for April 4th just got cancelled
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Things can change fast. I think if people don't need it, they can save it at least for a rainy day. This is sort of unprecedented territory for us. People who have comfortable jobs they feel are recession-proof might not in 6 months. |
In past crises senators & congressmen have revealed themselves to be woefully inept at understanding how the common American lives, and I imagine that will be an issue when they're trying to figure out these relief packages. For example payroll/social security tax relief wouldn't help laid off hourly service workers in the slightest.
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Here's the report that apparently got the White House to change its tune.
READ: The Alarming Report That Seems To Have Jump-Started Trump’s COVID Response | Talking Points Memo |
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But it seems weird to give us taxpayer money to do that. EDIT: And we both know that Trump needs suburban voters. He's not going to raise their taxes. For most, it'll just end up being a handout to those who in all likelihood don't need one. |
Not to make light of the outbreak in GA, but is there a better test as to whether you've lived or have family in the south than the proper pronunciation of Albany, GA?
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Uh oh, have I been saying it wrong? ALL-Beh-ni |
It's certainly better than nothing, and I'm glad to see them working on an alternative that isn't some cruel bastardization of trickle-down-economics, but on the other hand $1000 to every American seems like both a massive move that could have unprecedented effects on our economy for decades to come and a half-measure that will provide 80-90% of Americans with a boost to their saving while those 10-20% in need get 1-3 weeks of resources towards a nationwide lock-down that could last multiple months and the worst estimates even reach into years.
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If, as it reads, you're saying it like Albany, NY, that is, indeed, incorrect. The accent is on the second syllable for Albany, GA. |
My oldest brother lives just outside of all - BIN - ee
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I lived there for 20 years. I never heard a single person in that city pronounce it differently than the city in NY. Only people from outside the city.
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Fascinating. I have never heard it pronounced all-BIN-ee.
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We've been openly talking about how we as a Synod and a Church may have to cancel Holy Week services and just have the Sunday we are able to go back be "Easter".
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I've never even heard of Albany, GA until right not, but I have also been pronouncing it as ALL-beh-knee for my entire life.
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Maybe generational? My father-in-law grew up in and around Nashville, GA and has always put the accent on the second syllable as has his siblings still in the Nashville area. |
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If you're a high income earner, consider it a tax rebate (or cut). I worry about the deficit but in bad times, I think you need to spend. And with where rates are, the country is practically making money when they borrow. We just need to build a surplus when the economy is booming. |
I also wonder if at the end of this we'll see a shift in our military spending. It seems pandemics like this are much bigger threats than any major military conflict. Will a big chunk of that spending be pushed into preparing for future pandemics and setting up systems to create vaccines on the fly?
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NY up to 1700 cases. I expect much greater testing is what's driving this number up so rapidly.
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I went to college with people from there and that's the way they pronounced it or else I would have thought it was just like Albany, NY |
People around me always pronounced it Al-BAY-nee
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Phoenix and Tucson just shut down bars and made restaurants take out/drive thru only.
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1/3rd of the Brooklyn Nets have Coronavirus.
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Kevin Durant is one of them |
If we’re talking about dumb ways to say stuff, Campbell,Ohio is a US top 5 dumbest.
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Florida has scrapped testing and grades for K-12 and students will not be allowed back until at least April 15.
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No one knows at this point, but these numbers seem way over estimated. It also says we will have to social distance until a vaccine is developed to have any real shot at reducing numbers. I just can't see that happening. |
Well it does say if it goes unabated. I translated it to “Take this seriously or else” against what they see as the “let’s continue on as normal with no precautions “ crowd. I think they saw the president was a part of that crowd.
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Dropkick Murphys annual St Paddys day show from Boston about to start. No fans. Free livestream on youtube, facebook, and their website.
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Just a heads up for Georgia people. I have it from two different people (one a county official and one from GMA), Governor Kemp is likely to announce closing all non-essential business Friday.
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Sigh. The sports world had a lot of distractions the last day or two. There was a lot of NFL talk - the Texans doing stupid things, Tom Brady leaving the Pats, other big name QBs moving around the league - and then we had to have this dropped. And I know this is going to pale in comparison to the days ahead when some of these people unexpectedly start dying (and, unfortunately, when it will happen to people we know personally). SI |
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I did a little math this morning, and if 70% of company pilots get the virus, and of that group, even if only 1% die, that's still almost 100 pilots at my company that will be stricken. Those are pretty sobering numbers in a small grouping. This will all hit close to home for us eventually unless we can get vaccine that's effective. |
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I understand this perspective, but I think it will happen at least for months. When people start dying daily in the high hundreds or thousands here like they are in Italy, when we run out of proper ventilators and impossible triage decisions set in … and we're weeks away from that at best IMO … I think there will be an insistence on the public side to minimize it as much as possible for as long as necessary. Put it this way; I'll be surprised if I go back to the job I had last week anytime before late summer at the earliest, and probably longer. I know some people who are like 'nah, school's closed for two weeks but they won't extend it more than that, etc.' I see no indication at all that this is going to do anything but get worse for a while yet, more things are going to shut down not less in the weeks to come. |
I am wishing & hoping Portland's relative isolation and high density of introverts & hermits will work to its advantage. On the East coast there are clusters of major cities there practically a half-hour away from eachother and California is like a 1000-mile smudge of cities up I-5, whereas Portland is 3-4 hours from the nearest major city in any direction.
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I am on the Jersey shore. A town called Belmar. Tons of people here commute to NYC including my neighbor. No way we can stop the rapid spread. |
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No way schools will reopen to classrooms in 2 weeks. It'll be all remote through May unless there is good news on vaccine. Worse is yet to come for sure now that testing is ramping up. MSM is saying next 15 days is critical but not sure I understand what's so special about these 15 days. Why not days 15-30 as the critical also? |
So what happens when this finally hits India?
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Or Africa. |
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Lots of speculation on how heat effects the virus so hopefully not bad. |
First Bay Area and now real possibility of New York.
Great time to film the next Purge movie. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/polit...ntv/index.html Quote:
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According to one FOFCer, it is running wild in the Philippines despite it being in the 90s there.
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Cuomo won't do it just because De Blasio wants to. |
In that case Africa is pretty fucked
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One of my best friends is a professional firefighter and paramedic in Cincinnati. He said shit is about to get real there. Told me they have set up an area for when first responders initially get the virus. Chilling shit.
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Jake Tapper having a fit because people were outside exercising. He keeps going on and on about people rollerblading. Unless you are ploughing into people, you can't catch the virus just by being outside.
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If you want to say we need an immediate lockdown to give hospitals more time to stock up on ventilators, masks, etc, and give governments time to make contingency plans if there is a huge spike that's one thing. (Though leaving the airports and many businesses that really aren't essential open makes it seem like half measures at best.) But this isn't going away in 2 weeks, it isn't going away in 6 weeks, and I don't think it's worth shutting down our society for 18 months until an effective vaccine can be developed & mass produced. Quote:
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We need a heat wave, but the Memphis where I live projects to have an unseasonably cool April. |
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We are starting to see some evidence merging that humid weather does suppress it to some extent, or at least we can hope. |
One weird data point I don't understand - in many of the stories I've seen coming out of Asia they talk about having their temperature checked at every building they enter, or the subway, etc... I thought the biggest problem with this disease was that you can have & transmit it during a 14 day incubation period despite not showing any fever like symptoms? If so, why are so many Asian countries that have been through H1N1, MERS, etc using temperature checks as a tentpole of their quarantine efforts? Are you just more contagious during a period when you have it and a fever (like patient #31 in South Korea) so this is a way to weed out the worst potential spreaders?
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DeWine is kind of a badass lately!
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Are we actually collaborating with the Chinese and the Italians to pick up some lessons learned or are we still a week or two behind their timeline?
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Friend of mine just bought up the fact that Oregon has a massive state-run video-poker industry that is based entirely on bar patrons. Interesting from a couple angles what the effects of instantly stopping that will be....I have more than a couple friends that could probably greatly use a moratorium on that shit, but I can't imagine forced cold turkey will go over well with all of the states video-poker gamblers.
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10 days ago Italy had 5883 cases. Today, the US passed 6470. Two days ago, Germany had 5813, today they passed 9274. |
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This is true, I'm just of the mindset that flattening/lengthening is losing little. Massive, extended shortages of ventilators, even hospital beds for the amount of sick people we are going to have is losing big, and that's the thing to mitigate. Not just for coronavirus patients either - for patients of other illnesses. Although it will help, I don't think a short-term flattening is anywhere close to what it would take to boost medical infrastructure to the point of being able to handle a massive spike. That would take years to achieve and would require much of the population to do little else. And even so, we don't have enough trained nurses for what we already have in place, etc. There's just no way to 'ramp up' without major sacrificies in the quality of care, sacrifices that will be totally unacceptable to most. I think we're just aiming at 'least bad' here. Minimize the # of people who have to be told they need a ventilator or a hospital stay or this or that medication/supply but don't get one because their chances of survival are less than those already occupying that capacity. Quote:
The latter, at least with regards to Italy, is what the numbers say. I think the actions that have been taken are having a mitigating/flattening effect, but really that just means it won't be quite as bad as it could have been. That's good … but we're still headed to the same general place. |
My guess is they are hoping a combination of much greater testing, hotter, more humid weather, and anti-viral treatments gives a little bit of control by June. Our problem right now is we have no idea how far the virus has spread, and until we know that, the only option is mass isolation.
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I understand our testing issues but the US has more than 5 times as many people as Italy. Total case count given how spread out the some of the cases are makes it not quite as similar as the raw numbers indicate. For example in Pittsburgh right now there are just 10 cases and 90% of the tests in PA are negative.
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 Sorry for large image. Looks like we're right on par with Italy in terms of infections, but about half of the mortality rate (knock on wood). To listen to the mumbles it seems like that difference in mortality rate could possibly be due to relative age or smokers, or it could be better preparation/resources, but who can really say at this point? |
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That data is missing the last two days, unfortunately. Based on the 6,482 as of tonight, we are well ahead of Italy in total cases. |
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Kansas has announced they are essentially accepting this reality; closed classrooms for the rest of the school year officially. |
Sobering thread.
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Fulton County, GA just announced they are definitely closed through March 31 and strongly considering closing until April 13. |
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Interesting to note, we have five times the population of Italy, so the percentage of infections and rate of spread appears to be less in the U.S. (so far). |
Stay safe, folks.
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You too, NC!
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Taco Bell and McDonalds (corporate stores only, vast majority of course are franchised which is up to the individual owners there) have committed to continuing to pay their employees while they are shut down, at least for now. I have to question how long moves like this will last, but I applaud them for it even if part of the motivation I'm sure is to keep their employees around for when they are able to reopen.
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We all lack data worldwide, that is the amount of people tested. If you only test 10 persons, you can't have 100 officialy infected. I don't know about USA in particular but in some countries the test are free and mass available, in others you our your insurance need to pay for it, even if the gov pays for the test, in some countries test are only done to vulnerable people because lack of availability, etc so the infections numbers are probably very conservative in a lot of countries. Only people that feels sick ask for the test, but there is a lot of people that just feel a bit bad or are totally asynthomatic and won't ever be tested while infected. |
Re: testing kits, article says
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/18/healt...cdc/index.html 1) WHO did not offer and CDC did not ask for the WHO test kits on/prior Jan 17. I read this to be WHO expected CDC to create their own and CDC was probably too proud to accept the WHO kit which was not as accurate 2) On Feb 5, the CDC test kits were ready 3) "Days later" the CDC test kits were found to be defective and the kits had to be re-manufactured 4) No details on what went wrong. On Mar 1, an investigation was launched (still waiting I guess but thinking government/CDC know but is avoiding answering) 5) On Mar 9, public health labs able to test in all 50 states. But we know it had bandwidth challenges (until recently?) Birx commented and said Quote:
Bottom-line to me: yeah, there were some screw-ups and that is to be expected, but we are still behind the curve until the admiral became a testing czar late last week (?). They should release their findings on why the initial CDC test kits failed. |
Testing here (the Netherlands) only is used on those already very sick (at minimum a fever) and for hospital employees. That was a change of direction a week ago, two weeks after the first infection. Right now 1,705 positive test are reported (that's 1 in 10,000 of inhabitants), but rough estimations are that the actual number is 5 times larger.
As I mentioned earlier, assumptions are the virus spread faster and wider due to the timing at around a weekend where a large portion of the population traditionally goes to big gatherings. Re: Italy vs USA The first positive test in the USA was a full week before the first one in Italy, but that (too) can be a result of test availability and/or policy. I have no idea which state that was, haven't looked that up. At the same time it's apples and oranges, the USA is obviously a much larger area with a larger population and a lower density. |
Obviously, most of us don't need this as we have internet service, maybe you can pass it on to someone who needs it.
Charter to Offer Free Access to Spectrum Broadband and Wi-Fi For 60-Days For New K-12 and College Student Households and More |
Haven't looked around town, but the grocery store nearest our house that's typically never out of anything is completely out of Tylenol and other acetaminophen based products.
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Yep, kinda wish I hadn't read that to start this morning. |
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When I get a cold/flu, I get like the cold and flu medicine, I don't pop ibuprofen or tylenol ... am I missing something? |
I took a quick trip to the eastern shore of MD, got back yesterday.
A lot of folks out there not taking this things seriously. My entire family believes it is all bull shit. The only one taking it seriously is my 83 year old grandmother. She wants everyone to stay away. This whole thing is still surreal to me. |
Most cold and flu medicine contains acetaminophen or ibuprofen as a fever reducer.
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I was able to get some on Amazon a couple days ago |
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Stupid nitpick: Can I be slightly annoyed when someone uses city size instead of MSA when calculating things? 4 million people is a lot of people but it's not the size of LA unless we're talking about just city size and that's not what people think about when they think of LA. Same with Houston and 2M - it's a 6.5M metro area. That's what people think of when they think of "Houston", not just the city limits. SI |
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funny how quickly someone takes it seriously when they are the most likely to die. My mother in law is a die hard Trumper but she had a heart transplant 11 years ago and her kidneys are already in decline. She is taking it super seriously. |
Was texting with a friend today. She was telling me how she feels sorry for a lady who goes to our gym. The woman is there at least 4 hours a day. Turns out she has a horrible home life with a horribly abusive husband. Made me think about how much domestic violence must be happening right now and how its likely exacerbated by people being together more. Then throw in kids and money issues and it is a recipe for disaster.
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Link to it outside twitter: Thread by @jeremycyoung: We can now read the Imperial College report on COVID-19 that led to the extreme measures we've seen in the US this week. Read it; it's terri… And yeah, sobering is putting it very lightly. |
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Yup. Probably increase in babies (9 months down the road), divorces, and abuse. |
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I am not as curious about age as I am underlying factors. I realize a later tweet says there aren't any but I have to wonder. We are extremely unhealthy as a society. We are obese, eat like shit, smoke , drink, etc...There are a lot of other factors that could contribute. |
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Simple dumb guess: Because it's what we have? SI |
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I'm concerned about quantity, % and mortality rate. Is the # of infected and mortality for Dallas' 20s & 30s significantly higher than what is expected? |
Rumblings of daycare shutdowns here. If that happens, ish gets really real. It's one thing to work from home with elementary-aged kids who can fend for themselves to some degree. Whole different ballgame for productivity if America's toddlers are at home.
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People will set up de facto daycares at each others houses and that will completely defeat the purpose. That is basically what started happening here with schooling until the superintendent sent an email basically telling people to stop doing it. |
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Ohio has pretty much told people to get their kids out of daycare because a shutdown order could be coming any day now. |
I think this extreme social distancing is a good idea through the middle of April. But, we will need to have a serious discussion after that (IMO). We can't just shut down the country until July and lose 50-60% of our small businesses. We have to come up with an infrastructure that helps protect seniors and those with higher risk factors (delivery system for food/supplies) but allow the low risk people under 40 to get back to work/travel. At some point, we may be trading virus deaths for an equal number of suicide/spousal abuse/looting/other desperation crimes.
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Arlie, that's the thing. How do you come up with a system that takes care of seniors and people with higher risk factors in a mere 30 days.Because without a massive influx of money, and skilled people (which I don't think we can get in that mean time) to do that for folks. The problem is that for way too many people, "low risk under 40" folks getting corona virus isn't a big deal for themselves.. it's for all the other people they infect, including the older folks and folks with high risk factors (like me)
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I know, that where we need the infrastructure. We need our government to work on ways to allow the higher risk people to stay distanced as the people who have had it (and recovered) and the low risk group can begin working/living again. This thing is going to keep traveling around through the summer. We can’t just shit down the country until August. There will be no country left at that point.
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I'm juvenile, but I still love seeing this exact typo anywhere it pops up. |
it looks like the Peloton wife is going to get the last laugh
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Not to be crass but we don't really care about the bold at the best of times. With the increase in gun purchases, many will not want to expend any other resources to solve the underlined. They will take care of it themselves I may be completely off base but I do think everyone wants to get to a more normal state. We all understand there is a process to getting there. It just seems like we can't get to a starting point of the process. We can't get anyone to do anything voluntarily which IMO just extends the mandated actions that much longer. As with everything, we don't know but would we be further along in the process, if everyone had engaged in minimal social distancing before being ordered to the extreme version? I also think someone in leadership has to bite the bullet and actually talk about the trade of a potential rise of deaths for the return of a more normal way of life. It is a real thing and it is going to be very uncomfortable. Who has shown the ability to lead that discussion? |
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The problem is our inept government has screwed this up so bad that all the resources are going to slapping band aids on everything instead of figuring our how to stop the bleeding. |
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This is where I am at as well. I think some combination of a safe drug (I have heard chloroquine being floated) and warm weather help to tamper it down. I just don't know if we can nuke the whole economy to essentially protect our older population. |
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Oh, wait... |
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