I had a long response eaten up by these links going all wonky and I didn't want this thread to end up like the Random Thoughts thread so I'll retry the Cliffs Notes version (ok, my Cliffs Notes so it's still long) and there are hxxp links so I don't have to retype this a third time in increasingly poorer quality

That was from this article in October:
hxxps://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/10/schools-arent-superspreaders/616669/

It's been superseded (sort of) but this one:
hxxps://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/01/just-open-schools-already/617849/
(Of course, they also have a story from this past week about how the point is moot because we're out of teachers due to COVID)

But that article:
1) Uses a couple of interview contract tracing studies (in the US it's abysmal, maybe better elsewhere - but still problematic, below)
1) Debunks 2 older studies - but that's not a positive, that's just negating a negative
3) Talks mechanistically about spreading being weaker in kids due to ACE receptors (now we're getting somewhere, but it's still unknown)
4) Falls back on "why doesn't someone think of the children" tropes about why school is important - we'll get to that at the end here

It's still stunning to me that we're pretending schools aren't major spreaders.

Schools are super spreaders for every other disease, to a greater or lesser degree. Even if COVID is, mechanistically, less likely to spread in kids, it's not 0. Those studies, again, have only shown small sample size or relied on inadequate contact tracing in the US. Notice how that study from October was from the US and now The Atlantic has an article about how we're out of teachers. We've seen that it's really hard to nail down where you were exposed to COVID unless you only do exactly 1 "risky" activity a week. But if you went into work for 5 days, got a haircut, went into the grocery store, and dined in a restaurant all in one week and got COVID, there's no way to tell where you got it in this country - it's just too endemic.

Are they less of spreaders than a similarly sized church? Probably, because, again, mechanistically, kids are /less/ spreadable. But, let's be honest, we shouldn't have churches open right now either except perhaps outdoors and in much smaller sizes.

And, finally, we get back around to the weighing school vs not school. There's never any good numbers as to how safe/unsafe schools are. It's just "they're not as bad as we thought" and then fall back on other reasons. And those reasons are real problems, real societal failings: suicide, meal programs, inequity, school funding, and losing education (though there's not a lot of concrete proof on that one and there's some the other direction that a new learning environment can be positive, though not across the board). But it's so hard to weigh them when the answers of "how safe is it" is "safe-ish" without anything else behind that.

And they line up 4 bulleted points to make schools "safe"-ish - things like making kids wear masks (which we can't even get adults to do) and talking quietly (hah) or increase vaccination (which has nothing to do with kids since they can't even get them) and better scientific information (which is so nebulous, never mind how many deaf ears good scientific information is falling on).

SI

Don't disagree. I find it hard to understand Fauci/task force saying it was okay to open schools up even if not everyone has been vaccinated, not where there's a lot of infections etc. There has to be a nuance-or-something I'm missing.

But Psaki did seem to walk that back later in her briefing saying CDC would agree its not a formal recommendation yet.

I don't think they are fully coordinated here. No surprise but I expect they will have a definite official line soon.

Another victim of the covids:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/rep...67-sources-say

Flu season is pretty mellow this year, likely due to the coronavirus restrictions. One good side effect of all these precautions most of us are taking.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/09/healt...ess/index.html

I suspect there are probably some flu coded as COVID but it's not a substantial number. I always thought the whole "twindemic" idea was a stupid theory. The precautions that part of society was taking was going to stunt the growth of the non-dominant virus. And the the dominant virus was always going to be COVID, considering flu was non-existent this summer and fall but COVID was running wild.

SI

I had my first ever flu jab just yesterday - an article I read made sense in that with the massive drop in flu this season (95% here) it’s possible that there will be a greater susceptibility next winter as people will not have recent antibodies, plus it makes working out which flu variant will become dominant very difficult, further increasing risk if the vaccine is developed to counter a non-dominant version of the virus.

No-one knows what next winter will look like with Covid, and maybe anti-Covid measures will again keep a lid on flu, but for the sake of £13 I figured let’s get some base protection that may stand in good stead in the winter.

Next year could, indeed, be interesting. But I have no idea what to expect of next year with COVID, much less anything else. Crystal ball is still too hazy.

SI

I got my flu-shot back in October. I normally catch something even with the shot but like to think it lessens the severity.

My guess is we'll get Covid booster shots for the next couple years as it mutates.

That's my expectation as well

SI

So my semi-random thought of the day... once everyone has had access to vaccines won't the easiest way to overcome the barriers of people being somewhat anti-Vaxx or just being somewhat lazy & go from 60-90% taking the vaccine be governments/major sports leagues(/including NCAA football) saying you can have full crowds as long as people can provide proof they got vaccinated?

Sports leagues led the way in showcasing how massive this was by shutting down. If they require vaccines to enter, sure people will try to fake vaccine cards, but it will incentivize a lot people to get them.

I could see the NBA doing this, maybe. But MLB? Who is desperate for every fan.. dollar than they can get and with no long term planning whatsoever?

SI

I could see a lot of state governments requiring it if the leagues don't, though that probably doesn't help in SEC country.

NY state admitting that it was fudging the hell out of its numbers.

Very uncool.

I can't wait for DeSantis or Kemp to use Cuomo as an example of the evil Democrats when they're doing the exact same thing but still lying about it

SI

What were they reporting incorrectly? Haven't found anything about it.

Cuomo aide admits they hid nursing home data from feds

The numbers were there in the excess death numbers with the CDC, just not the official COVID numbers.

Meanwhile, here in the Upstate of SC, the main hospital system up here is closing 4 vaccination sites to "consolidate and streamline." They're now sending 4 counties to 1 spot. The real reason is because they either haven't received or have received far fewer doses than ordered for the last week.

My wife runs a moderate sized physician practice and were told to get everything in order months ago to administer vaccines. Currently, they're still waiting on approval from the state and she said they don't expect to ever receive doses, nor do any other practices in the state. They basically spent 10k on equipment they'll never get to use.

Also, there's a large PPE shortage going on and is getting much worse.

Was just able to sign up to get vaccinated through Rite aid next Thursday. Looks like I got lucky and signed up before all the spots filled

Thanks for the link. Wonder how many more stories like that are out there at all levels of government.

Most all symptoms are now gone. What is lingering is still lack of smell and taste, and I get tired really easily. I've also now started experiencing "COVID fingers". The skin on the tips of my fingers is peeling off. It isn't painful, just strange.

Glad you're feeling better, cartman.

but do you have an anal probe?

A lot of good COVID news lately. I'm starting to feel pretty optimistic about our spring and summer travel plans.

54.6 million dosages given in the U.S. so far. 12% of the population has received at least one dose. Lots of deals in place for hundreds of millions more to be distributed in 2021. It's really looking like anyone who wants one will be able to get one by April or May.

We've gone from a 7-day average of new daily cases of 255k on January 11 to 87k as of yesterday. 65% drop in a little over a month. And the 7-day average of daily deaths went from 3,429 on 1/26 to 2,481 as of yesterday. 28% down in three weeks.

My state has had an even bigger drop, from a peak of 1,654 new cases a day per the 7-day average to 260 now.

Maybe there's some seasonal/reduced human mobility factors there, but I'm convinced there's a partial herd immunity dynamic where most of the people who haven't taken precautious have already gotten it and have some immunity by now, and millions of those who have taken precautions and remain vulnerable are being vaccinated every week. There's just not as much opportunity to spread.

I saw that Alaska has dropped it's requirement of a negative COVID test to enter the state. It's kind of a tricky requirement because even if you're willing to play ball, there was no guarantee you were going to get your result back in time for it to qualify within their parameters of when it had to be administered. This news came after it started looking like all of the cruise ship companies are probably going to skip another Alaska season. Which I think makes Alaska a premiere go-to destination for 2021 - we might get up there twice.

4.5 weeks check-in.

Communications is definitely better and Biden definitely gets the credit. Also believe supply is doing better now. Supply was inevitably going to ramp up anyway though but I'll give him the "incremental" credit.

Not convinced the inoculations are going significantly better (or at least not yet). CDC says 73M doses and 58M with at least one jab.

Approx 1.5M to 2M jabs a day. Using 2M, that means 7 days of supply not distributed. Assuming supply is coming in on a regular basis now, is this 7 day lag good? Why haven't near or all been used already?

Biden claims this is a war and I agree with that. He has also supposedly mobilized military, retirees, leveraging stadiums etc. to help with inoculations etc. It may be happening but haven't seen much in MSM. And the inability to make appts even if you are in the current Phase indicates there is still a problem.

I want to see inoculation centers open 24x7 (okay, maybe 18x7). I want to see pics of long lines of cars/people getting inoculated in stadiums or field hospitals. I want to see 73M doses distributed with 68M inoculated ... and I still want media to be reporting on the week-to-week supply that Moderna, Pfizer etc. says will be planned for production (I know those damn reports exist somewhere).

Seems all of these are doable in a war time mindset. The sense of urgency is being reported by Psaki, Biden, Fauci etc. but I've not personally seen/read much results of this urgency in practice.

Outside of the politics, the one thing I keep coming back to is the timeline on when we move on to the next phase and the next group to be inoculated. from what I have seen, a third of whatever demographic you look at is either skeptical or refuse to get the vaccine. For example, Florida is still in Phase 1 of its plan. That phase include people over 65, healthcare workers and people deemed high risk. Using rough numbers, Florida has vaccinated about 43% of people in that group with at least the first shot. Now, there are still a large number of people in that group who are still waiting to get appointment. However, we are getting to a point those who are not vaccinated, are not vaccinated by choice rather than opportunity.

If I have a vaccine specifically ready for Random Person in Phase 1 and Random Person in Phase 1 does not want the vaccine, what happens to the vaccine? The rules say I can't give the vaccine to anyone else in any of the other phases, many places don't have waiting lists for the current phase and there is an expiration date on the vaccine. I think the reason some of the numbers are a bit stagnate (again outside of politics) is we seem to be waiting for everyone in Phase 1 to be vaccinated when we know that will not be the case at this point. I don't know when we need to move on to the next phase, but that time has to be coming sooner rather than later.

Ask and ye shall receive.

Pretty amazing the scene at the @LiacourasCenter right now. Hundreds lined up in the sleet and freezing rain to get their vaccine at the #BlackDoctorsCovid19Consortium 24-hour vaccine-a-thon. @NBCPhiladelphia pic.twitter.com/ESpLOw45QC

— Danny Freeman (@DannyEFreeman) February 19, 2021

Thanks. Wonder if that is one of the exceptions vs rule? Not happening in GA that I know of but admittedly MSM is easily distracted.

I wonder if indoor stadiums are the way to go. Folks can sit spaced apart. Basic facilities are available etc. It may disadvantage those without means to get to the stadium but it would relieve the other centers that they would go to.

GA had an example of this where a county went "rogue" and gave leftovers to non-current Phase in that county. In that case, that county should have given the not-wanted shots to other counties or back to the overall-bank.


I think it's relatively easy to tell when to move to next phase by state

1) Est no. of people in current Phase
2) Track # of shots given
3) Est no. of weeks/days
4) Once # of shots is within 85-90% or close of #3 go ahead an move to next Phase

I get (1) can't be entirely accurate but approx counts can be found by pulling from different sources.

This information should made available so everyone knows how things are progressing and can guestimate. Easy enough to create a dashboard tracking this or similar metrics.

Well I guess this is good news.

Pfizer: COVID vaccine doesn't need to be stored at freezing temps anymore

Now this is a great plan. It is perfectly understandable that Biden does not "give/donate" US shots to other countries while we still need them, but giving money to other countries to buy shots is the right thing to do.

$4B is nice but should be more IMO. And he should be asking other western and rich-oil countries to chip in.

[url="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/19/covid-19-live-updates.html"]

That is a first come first serve operation. I can't say I have seen those in FL. Everything locally has been based on appointments only.

The relative ease of moving all depends on the state. I just think people would like to know that their turn is coming soon. It would be unfair for me to cast all of the other states in a bad light given the BS we are dealing with here. I would look more toward 60-70% of a population of a phase being completely vaccinated (both shots) before going to the next phase for the reasons I explained before.

I respectfully disagree. If it was either or, I'd get more first shots out to most everyone before worrying about second shots.

I know Fauci doesn't support the science as its not been done in the US but UK scientists are good enough for me.

Good. We're already 27 trillion dollars in the hole. What's another 4 billion?

I was thinking maybe $40B. Call it interest free 20-year loan.

A drop in the bucket vs paying off $50K each of student loans.

China's perfectly content to buy up international favors on the cheap doing this:

China’s 'vaccine diplomacy'Â*fills void in developing world

SI

Israeli data suggests a 90% decrease in Infection for BionTech/Pfizer. Considering Moderna has looked similar in pretty much all benchmarks i vote the big countries pay both of them whatever the fuck they want to sweeten the deal for them to grant licenses to other manufacturers and pay those whatever the hell they need to get up and running asap and then blanket less developed countries with the cooling facilities needed to get it done as well. (especially since Biontech also now figures that it can be stored up to 2 weeks at -15 degrees celcius, so basically a good medical fridge rather than specialised freezers).
There's a window now to at least reduce this sucker to a sort of negligible oddity now and do it globally, before more variants emerge and you have to globally reset things to a degree.

That makes a lot of sense.
This started out as the "Wuhan" virus, but the past weeks the talk over here was about the severity of the spread of the "British variant", "Brazilian variant" and "South African variant". We can't all emigrate to Australia and New Zealand and perceive to be safe there.

Fauci, honestly once everyone in the US gets the 2 shots (let's say by Sep), I may continue wearing masks for a couple more months ... but I'm not planning on wearing a mask after. Maybe on a plane, travel to another country not yet done with inoculations, or enclosed stadium but that's about it.

I think the reason that they are saying you should wear a mask afterwards is because there isn't enough research whether vaccinated people can pass on the virus to others. And until there is a herd immunity they want to keep those who haven't yet been vaccinated as safe as possible. And he's not convinced it will happen by September.

As he said: "If you combine getting most of the people in the country vaccinated with getting the level of virus in the community very, very low, then I believe you’re going to be able to say, for the most part, we don’t necessarily have to wear masks"

It won't happen, but I'd love to see people take responsibility and wear a mask when they feel cold or flu symptoms. That could make a real difference in respiratory disease transmission.

Haven't seen this reported elsewhere so hope this is true.

https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden...a3c7b5eda0faba

I've seen some people say we'll hit herd immunity by the end of April. Maybe that's optimistic but with all these doses coming, it seems like numbers will be drastically down soon.

My guess is mask mandates drop when the virus levels have lowered enough. Maybe I'm too hopeful but I believe by the end of Summer life will be somewhat back to normal.

Also, there are plenty other viruses that the same mask stops spreading. Quite honestly i can't see myself not wearing one on, say, public transport in the future. One of them things you never consider, but now that i am aware i can't just go back to acting like an inconsiderate doofus.

Barring bad weather or a Covid issue, I'll be traveling this weekend to see Caitlin's opening weekend of college softball. First time I will have left the state or slept in a bed other than my own for almost exactly a year. I almost forgot what it was like to prepare for a trip.

On a related note, I rescheduled 2 of our 3 vacations from last year (we canceled the Alaska cruise and put the money toward a covered deck addition to the house). Next real vacation will be in August, 2 years and 1 week since our last vacation. Unless you count sitting in your own house for about 50 weekends a year a vacation...

I'm confused though why it is ok for vaccinated people to not quarantine if exposed. Wouldn't that be how you get it to then pass it without wearing your mask?

Those things seem to be in conflict.

But you do have to still wear your mask. Basically the vaccine quarantine procedures are the same as quarantine procedures for someone who has already gotten Covid 19.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

FWIW I do get a flu-shot every year but I do come down with something every year. Pretty sure the flu-shot helps (e.g. reduces duration, severity etc.).

This past year, got my flu-shot and have had a couple episodes of dry cough etc. but nothing with mucus. Just one data point to add to the reduced flu season but do think the extra diligence of masks, hand washing, limiting outside exposure and working from home etc. has helped.

But all-in-all, would trade the inconvenience of a flu for the freedom to run out and do things, and be carefree.