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Danny 03-03-2011 12:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia (Post 2433831)
Can one piggyback on a vote that doesn't exist?


you can certainly piggeback on ones arguments. Autumn had done that multiple times in the past as a wolf for example and him doing that to me was the main reason I caught him last time he was a wolf.

This time no wolf piggy pagged on my argument, I think there's little chance of that happening if jag was a villager

Danny 03-03-2011 12:44 PM

Sorry EF

Autumn 03-03-2011 12:46 PM

Man, now I find out I'm transparent as a wolf. Great.

Passacaglia 03-03-2011 12:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny (Post 2433836)
you can certainly piggeback on ones arguments. Autumn had done that multiple times in the past as a wolf for example and him doing that to me was the main reason I caught him last time he was a wolf.

This time no wolf piggy pagged on my argument, I think there's little chance of that happening if jag was a villager


Interesting theory -- too bad you just said that anyone who agrees with it is a wolf! :jester:

Autumn 03-03-2011 12:50 PM

I"ll admit I'm really lost where to go today. I've got my vote on McKerney because I'm afraid if he's a wolf he could slide by to the end. I was hoping a vote or two on him would get him talking and give us something to base votes on. When it comes to Hoops/Chief/JAG/Pass I'm quite unsure who would be the wolf in that group. I'm kind of guessing there's one there and one in PF/NTN/Mckerney. I see people thinking three wolves, whereas Saldana seemed certain there would be four total. I guess I'm just hoping there's only two more right now.

Danny 03-03-2011 12:55 PM

If there are only four wolves I think that makes ntn and cr look even better cause it would mean mauboy voted for a roled wolf day 1 which would be terribly risky with only 4 wolves.

JAG 03-03-2011 01:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny (Post 2433836)
you can certainly piggeback on ones arguments. Autumn had done that multiple times in the past as a wolf for example and him doing that to me was the main reason I caught him last time he was a wolf.

This time no wolf piggy pagged on my argument, I think there's little chance of that happening if jag was a villager


Well, seeing as only one person has a vote out, I'm guessing the wolves are just playing things safe before committing themselves. For what it's worth, the vote the day before yesterday was very quiet until a flurry at the end.

At this point, I would probably lean towards voting Pass. I've come around more on Autumn based on his comments earlier today. If Pass comes up wolf, then hoops looks pretty good. I can see an argument to vote hoops, but I just don't have a bad vibe with him.

PackerFanatic 03-03-2011 01:15 PM

A few reasons for my vote today (and I apologize for not being around much last night or today)

-His quick switch off mau on day 1 when other candidates popped up.
-His quick jump on Jackal on day 2 when Lathum brought him up.
-His "pile-on" vote of mau to basically hide his vote on the day mau was lynched.
-He has been fairly quiet most of the game, staying under-the-radar

VOTE NTNDEACON

Autumn 03-03-2011 01:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mckerney (Post 2430567)
I don't entirely believe him either. I'm also open to the possibility that he's a regular villager who dropped hints that he seer to stay around past day one. I agree that the future comment was to give the impression he's a seer, but also without saying it so he can claim he never admitted to being seer.

I also think that he could be a wolf, but currently think The Jackal is a better pick for tonights vote.


Going back through old posts. McKerney hasn't said a lot but here's one of his comments after Mauboy fake revealed. this is before Mauboy pretended to be a paparazzi, so it's interesting to me that it seems to be setting up this possibility, perhaps trying to leave Mauboy an out if the seer reveals. One point against mcKerney in my mind.

mckerney 03-03-2011 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn (Post 2433853)
Going back through old posts. McKerney hasn't said a lot but here's one of his comments after Mauboy fake revealed. this is before Mauboy pretended to be a paparazzi, so it's interesting to me that it seems to be setting up this possibility, perhaps trying to leave Mauboy an out if the seer reveals. One point against mcKerney in my mind.


I wasn't trying to set him up with an out, I thought that's what he was doing for himself with the vague comment. If you check the day three votes I was the first one to vote for mauboy and it was before he admitted he wasn't the seer and claimed the fake paparazzi role.

Autumn 03-03-2011 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 2430776)
That's the thing, thoughm Lathum, I didn't see you state why. Your initial post just tosses out that you protected yourself, not why. You only made it seem that way in retrospect because you were attacked, so The Jackal must be a wolf, kindof a circular "that's why I protected myself". But you wouldn't have known any of that prior to the attack. When you made your decision, mau was likely to be a seer, and your unknown-allegiance but hopefully good teammate The Jackal knew you were the BG. I would like to know why in that situation, even in three minutes, you chose to protect yourself and not the presumed seer.

I believe you're the BG. I think the real BG would have come out by now if you were not. So please don't think I am trying to paint you as a wolf. I am just honestly confused by your decision, why you would risk the seer like that. It flies in the face of conventional WW logic.


Reading Chief's posts back on day 2 I'm finding myself leaning more his way. He came out rather stridently against Lathum's move of protecting himself. This is just one of those posts, and he makes very clear he's not suggesting Lathum's a wolf, yet does a lot of painting Lathum's move as suspect. Including using this point to try to gloss over the fact that people were finding it very strange that Mauboy scanned Chief. It just seems we've seen a lot of strident, defensive Chief in this game.

And that scan is a point I find myself returning to. why would Mauboy claim to have scanned Chief? he could have claimed to scan his teammate, or NTN. There wasn't really any reasoning for picking Chief. Does that mean he was avoiding scanning either of those two? Or why did he pick Chief out of thin air?

ntndeacon 03-03-2011 01:37 PM

Just to hit on a point Autumn mentioned about our race dealings. I did suggest using a point of aggression for the benefit of Chief and Hoops.

hoopsguy 03-03-2011 01:43 PM

Why would you use aggression to benefit another team, ntn? Just curious as this is something that our team hasn't discussed at all.

Danny 03-03-2011 01:46 PM

Based on what I'm seeing, the vote is going to end up 2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1

Autumn 03-03-2011 01:50 PM

Well, at least there won't be a tie!

hoopsguy 03-03-2011 01:51 PM

I'm torn between "vote JAG" because I'm willing to take my cues from a known villager (Danny) who I consider an astute player and "vote Pass" because I sincerely hope we weren't so off-base on Day 5 that we had a three villager run-off.

At this point, I'm going to jump on Pass for the vote. Both of these approaches are kind of tough for me to swallow, because I like to tell myself that I'm good at sifting through posts and seeing stuff that isn't supposed to be seen. But I feel like I've got almost nothing this game, as my voting record suggests.

VOTE PASS

ntndeacon 03-03-2011 01:52 PM

Well the idea was from Amazing race. Helping out another team could be reciprocated and an allaince of sorts could be formed between the two teams. that was the kernel of the idea...and you and chief were thought of because even if one of you had been ousted from WW You were both cagey veterans that would be good to be in our corner so to speak in the race game.

I was and still am looking at the two games as mostly separate.

Passacaglia 03-03-2011 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny (Post 2433860)
Based on what I'm seeing, the vote is going to end up 2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1


Yes, but how many of those votes will be yours? :P

Anyway, we're smarter than that.

Passacaglia 03-03-2011 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2433863)
I'm torn between "vote JAG" because I'm willing to take my cues from a known villager (Danny) who I consider an astute player and "vote Pass" because I sincerely hope we weren't so off-base on Day 5 that we had a three villager run-off.

At this point, I'm going to jump on Pass for the vote. Both of these approaches are kind of tough for me to swallow, because I like to tell myself that I'm good at sifting through posts and seeing stuff that isn't supposed to be seen. But I feel like I've got almost nothing this game, as my voting record suggests.

VOTE PASS


Your feeling is right, you've got nothing.

Chief Rum 03-03-2011 02:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn (Post 2433856)
Reading Chief's posts back on day 2 I'm finding myself leaning more his way. He came out rather stridently against Lathum's move of protecting himself. This is just one of those posts, and he makes very clear he's not suggesting Lathum's a wolf, yet does a lot of painting Lathum's move as suspect. Including using this point to try to gloss over the fact that people were finding it very strange that Mauboy scanned Chief. It just seems we've seen a lot of strident, defensive Chief in this game.

And that scan is a point I find myself returning to. why would Mauboy claim to have scanned Chief? he could have claimed to scan his teammate, or NTN. There wasn't really any reasoning for picking Chief. Does that mean he was avoiding scanning either of those two? Or why did he pick Chief out of thin air?


I was trying to make sense of Lathum's move, so we could properly evaluate The Jackal and maybe mau. Remember, at that point, no one really knew what to make of mau, and Lathum's move to protect himself was definitely confusing. If you think you have an outted seer, why do your protect yourself? Who does that? Doesn't that seem a strange decision to you? That is all I was saying there. And if having an opinion on someone else's play is "being strident", I guess I am strident. ;)

As for the defensive part of it, you should look back at past games where people come at me with very little logic or who argue unfairly in their posts; you'll find I quickly I get defensive and aggressively counterattack. I don't like arguments like that; they're intellectually lazy and within the scope of the game, irresponsible, as they can result in misudnerstanding and get the wrong people lynched. Since I have seen a lot of that this game, you shouldn't be surprised it has gotten my hackles up.

And, BTW, I think you need to re-read Days One and Two and Three; I don't gloss over mau's scan of me. I even offer up a theory for what he was doing (scanning me instead of Danny). Since Danny's a villager, the theory ended up being bunk, but I certainly didn't ignore it.

Also, I would question your logic in that mau's scan of me is an attempt by him to hide me as a wolf. That would be a very poor play, and I think you know that. If you're a wolf who has claimed a role whereby a villager in the game knows that you are a lying (as mau did), you know it's only a matter of time before either this guy comes out and busts you or that you are outted in some other way. You might get away with it if you can swing it near the end of a game, I suppose, but no way do you do this reveal on Day One and think you're going to get away with it. Knowing then that it's only a matter of time before your fake seer reveal is uncovered, you announce that your Night One scan is... one of your fellow wolves? What kind of sense does that make?

Come on, Autumn, you're too good to fall for that trap. The fact you're going down that road when I know you're too smart for that makes me start to wonder about you.

Danny 03-03-2011 02:02 PM

Hmmm, could it be I was the last remaining villager and you're all wolves?

Autumn 03-03-2011 02:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 2433869)
As for the defensive part of it, you should look back at past games where people come at me with very little logic or who argue unfairly in their posts; you'll find I quickly I get defensive and aggressively counterattack. I don't like arguments like that; they're intellectually lazy and within the scope of the game, irresponsible, as they can result in misudnerstanding and get the wrong people lynched. Since I have seen a lot of that this game, you shouldn't be surprised it has gotten my hackles up.


I am definitely aware of this, and if I wasn't I would have jumped on you much earlier than this. In another player I would have 100% interpreted your play as a wolf with some heat on him.

Quote:

And, BTW, I think you need to re-read Days One and Two and Three; I don't gloss over mau's scan of me. I even offer up a theory for what he was doing (scanning me instead of Danny). Since Danny's a villager, the theory ended up being bunk, but I certainly didn't ignore it.

I did reread that, and yes you offered up an explanation. Your theory was one reason I voted for Danny, so yes, there's that. But your reaction (and yes I just read all those posts) could also be painted as a wolf trying to cover up for the mistake of his fellow wolf. A good method would be to redirect the suspicion at Danny rather than yourself.

Quote:

Also, I would question your logic in that mau's scan of me is an attempt by him to hide me as a wolf. That would be a very poor play, and I think you know that. If you're a wolf who has claimed a role whereby a villager in the game knows that you are a lying (as mau did), you know it's only a matter of time before either this guy comes out and busts you or that you are outted in some other way. You might get away with it if you can swing it near the end of a game, I suppose, but no way do you do this reveal on Day One and think you're going to get away with it. Knowing then that it's only a matter of time before your fake seer reveal is uncovered, you announce that your Night One scan is... one of your fellow wolves? What kind of sense does that make?

Come on, Autumn, you're too good to fall for that trap. The fact you're going down that road when I know you're too smart for that makes me start to wonder about you.

I've pointed out repeatedly, I think, while trying to remain tactful, that I think Mauboy really blundered with his reveal. And so while I agree that it would have been a poor wolf move, so would pretending to be the seer when you get votes and then pretending to actually be the paparazzi. I am operating on the principle that Mauboy may have made a poor choice in his scan in order to help out the wolves. He obviously had much more confidence about how his reveal was going to work than he should have. You should be able to see that, and while I can see that it's in your interest as either villager or wolf to naysay it, I don't think you or anyone else should be discounting it completely.

That said I don't want to seem like I have a crusade against you. I do however think there are arguments against you, and I keep seeing those get brushed away, which I Find strange or suspicious.

Chief Rum 03-03-2011 02:11 PM

I am still of the opinion that it is very nearly impossible for ntn to be a wolf with the way Day One went down, and the only way it would have happened is if I were a wolf, too, which I am not. And even knowing none of you know my allegiance for sure, you have to accept then that if ntn is indeed a wolf, for the vote to go down the way it did, all three of us (me, mau and ntn) would have had to be wolves. On Day One? What kind of luck is that?

You're buying a lot of hope if you think ntn is a wolf at this point.

Also, I still think it's tremendously unlikely that Pass acts the way he does and is a wolf.

My instincts are overhwlemingly that ntn and Pass are not only villagers, but darn near obvious villagers. I don't think we should waste time on either one while we have other, more uncleared villagers left in the game.

Autumn 03-03-2011 02:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mckerney (Post 2433855)
I wasn't trying to set him up with an out, I thought that's what he was doing for himself with the vague comment. If you check the day three votes I was the first one to vote for mauboy and it was before he admitted he wasn't the seer and claimed the fake paparazzi role.


I would like to see that vote. Thanks for pointing it out Mckerney.

Danny 03-03-2011 02:21 PM

I think I said it before, but no way would I vote ntn or cr right now. I don't think I'd vote pass either

Danny 03-03-2011 02:21 PM

I think I said it before, but no way would I vote ntn or cr right now. I don't think I'd vote pass either

Autumn 03-03-2011 02:21 PM

That does look like a good vote, McK, certainly early enough that if you were trying to make yourself looking good for voting a wolf you were doing so in an expert fashion. And some of your posts during that day make me think better of you.

mauchow 03-03-2011 02:21 PM

My name keeps coming up a lot. Glad I made a lasting impression. LOL

Autumn 03-03-2011 02:21 PM

Chief, can you explain why you wouldn't vote Pass? I don't see anything at all particularly for or aagainst him.

Autumn 03-03-2011 02:22 PM

Mauboy, Mauboy, mauboy.

mckerney 03-03-2011 02:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn (Post 2433875)
I would like to see that vote. Thanks for pointing it out Mckerney.


Post 769 on page 16

Chief Rum 03-03-2011 02:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn (Post 2433873)
I am definitely aware of this, and if I wasn't I would have jumped on you much earlier than this. In another player I would have 100% interpreted your play as a wolf with some heat on him.


Ah, but I am not another player. In fact, I would say my reaction to Pass and to otehrs is entirely consistent with my past play. It's metagamey, of course, and you shouldn't use it, but that said, it's there. How you would react to another player doing the same thing is irrelevant. You're not dealing with another player.

Quote:

I did reread that, and yes you offered up an explanation. Your theory was one reason I voted for Danny, so yes, there's that. But your reaction (and yes I just read all those posts) could also be painted as a wolf trying to cover up for the mistake of his fellow wolf. A good method would be to redirect the suspicion at Danny rather than yourself.

But is that the high percentage read? I can see that, but I would hope you would have more to go after me than coming up with a low percentage theory and basing your vote on it. Heck, you know that in this situation, no way am I or any veteran wolf even going to acknowledge mau. He would have been cutoff the second he did his fake reveal (at least publically).

Quote:

I've pointed out repeatedly, I think, while trying to remain tactful, that I think Mauboy really blundered with his reveal. And so while I agree that it would have been a poor wolf move, so would pretending to be the seer when you get votes and then pretending to actually be the paparazzi. I am operating on the principle that Mauboy may have made a poor choice in his scan in order to help out the wolves. He obviously had much more confidence about how his reveal was going to work than he should have. You should be able to see that, and while I can see that it's in your interest as either villager or wolf to naysay it, I don't think you or anyone else should be discounting it completely.

I agree, I think mau made a mistake there as well. Where I think your logic loses the thread, though, is that you think one bad decision will be followed by another a half a day later. Consider mau. He hints at the seer on Day One. By the deadline of Day One, it's more or less the consensus that mau has revealed as the seer. He doesn't come back on to confirm and to offer up his scan choices for some time into Day Two (I remember, I was waiting to see what he would say), like half a day at least. The instant he "reveals" on Day One and the other wolves see what he is doing, you don't think they're in his ear about who to say he has scanned? Do you really see a veteran wolf saying, "mau, your fake reveal will eventually be revealed, so please tell the village you scanned me (Chief)?" Does that seem like a logical decision to you? Or do you really think the other wolves won't have been talking mau up quite a bit between his "reveal" and his announcement of who he scanned more than half a day later?

Quote:

That said I don't want to seem like I have a crusade against you. I do however think there are arguments against you, and I keep seeing those get brushed away, which I Find strange or suspicious.

Not sure what game you're reading, because if arguments against me are being brushed away, you couldn't tell from the way my name keeps coming up and people keep coming at me. ;)

I think it's undeniable that there are arguments against me. There are arguments against many here. I think it's silly, though, to use my decision to defend myself as a reason to then lynch me. As if it's less suspicious to sit idly by and let people build their theories on me without argument.

Chief Rum 03-03-2011 02:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn (Post 2433883)
Chief, can you explain why you wouldn't vote Pass? I don't see anything at all particularly for or aagainst him.


Pass was obstinate, picking a fight and a little insulting in his pursuit of me, in a very public manner. Is that really the way you see Pass playing this game as a wolf?

If it was an all an act to hide in plain sight, kudos to him. He fooled me.

Autumn 03-03-2011 02:30 PM

If that's your defense of Pass, then, yes, I think he does that as a wolf. I think that's Pass whether he's villager or wolf.

Autumn 03-03-2011 02:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 2433887)
I agree, I think mau made a mistake there as well. Where I think your logic loses the thread, though, is that you think one bad decision will be followed by another a half a day later.


This is the only point i want to respond to. It was like a day later or something that Mau revealed with his fake paparazzi role. So, yes, I think it is 100% certain that one bad decision could be followed by another a great deal of hours later. I think that fake role was a much worse decision than his initial reveal, and presumably his fellow wolves knew about it. So either his fellow wolves weren't involved in either decision, or they thought they were both great ideas. But there is no doubt that Mauboy could have made a poor scan choice given the certainty that he made a bad fake role choice.

That said, I haven't even voted you, Chief. But JAG at least has suggested you are the least likely of all suspects and I don't want that idea to gain much root in the village hive mind.

Chief Rum 03-03-2011 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn (Post 2433889)
If that's your defense of Pass, then, yes, I think he does that as a wolf. I think that's Pass whether he's villager or wolf.


With two wolves already down for the count, and risking polarizing the village into a Pass versus Chief situation? Pass might play with an edge, but that's just a suicidal play as a wolf. Even if he succeeds in getting me lynched, when I come up a villager, he's the next lynch.

CrimsonFox 03-03-2011 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2433719)
Dola - I'm willing to be pretty open about what our team has been doing (and we are in first) if others are willing to share some details as well. I'm hoping to evaluate relative performances and better understand why teams are in the position they are.

If there is some wolf reward for being in first in the race I have inadvertently been aiding and abetting the enemy.

I don't necessarily think this is happening, but I want to rule it out. In an abstract sense, I'm surprised to be alive with Chief Rum on Day 6 and could use some help convincing myself that this is a good thing (ie - we're both villagers and just haven't fallen atop wolf priorities so far).



As EF said, tho. There are not events in the game that even out the pack like there are on the real amazing race. No flights that everybody has to be on. Thus when you leave you leave and when you hit the mat you hit the mat. Since you're out in first it's pretty easy to stay in top tier. As for my team, I've been doing giving all the instructions to EF and GE seems okay with that. (Take that however you want). Meaning he hasn't been giving EF any special wolf instructions unless he's doing that on the side privately. Regarding how we went from 7th to 2nd, we've gotten lucky the last couple legs with how well the pitstop tasks match the skills of GE and I. The first two legs they did not (7th and 5th)

Autumn 03-03-2011 02:40 PM

Mckerney's posts make me feel better about him (his day three posts). So I am likely to move my vote. Unfortunately I'm not sure where to go. Hoops/Chief/JAG/Pass seems the place to vote today. I agree with Chief that if he is a wolf, likely NTN is as well. I disagree with him how unlikely that scenario is, but I'm not sure I want to bark up that tree.

Unfortunately I don't have a real sense of who it might be between Hoops/JAG/Pass. And I worry that we're letting someone slip by among the others. I don't see any glaring reason not to vote one of these, luckily, but no glaring reason to pick one over the other.

Chief Rum 03-03-2011 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn (Post 2433891)
This is the only point i want to respond to. It was like a day later or something that Mau revealed with his fake paparazzi role. So, yes, I think it is 100% certain that one bad decision could be followed by another a great deal of hours later. I think that fake role was a much worse decision than his initial reveal, and presumably his fellow wolves knew about it. So either his fellow wolves weren't involved in either decision, or they thought they were both great ideas. But there is no doubt that Mauboy could have made a poor scan choice given the certainty that he made a bad fake role choice.

That said, I haven't even voted you, Chief. But JAG at least has suggested you are the least likely of all suspects and I don't want that idea to gain much root in the village hive mind.


I think we can both agree the second reveal was poorly done. mau was trying one last gasp to save himself there. But it's actually irrelevant to this discussion, because mau revealed his "scan" of me under the auspices of the first reveal (as a seer), not the second. mau made an unwise decison to hold himself off from being lynched on Day One by doing the early fake seer reveal when he probably should have just fallen on the sword.

You keep talking about mau's scans like they were real. It was all fake. There was no scan decision he made prior to the deadline, only whatever lie he would cook up hours later when he revealed his "scans". Your argument seems to be that the other wolves will have advised him it's a good idea to reveal that he scanned a fellow wolf (me, in your hypothetical) and reveal him as a villager. You know a wolf team isn't going to do that, and in particular, you know a wolf team with a veteran like me is not going to advise that.

You're really asking for us to believe some phenomenally dumb moves by every single wolf in the game if you think they decided to have mau try to hide a wolf behind a fake seer scan on Day One.

CrimsonFox 03-03-2011 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 2433888)
Pass was obstinate, picking a fight and a little insulting in his pursuit of me, in a very public manner. Is that really the way you see Pass playing this game as a wolf?



Absolutely.

CrimsonFox 03-03-2011 02:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny (Post 2433860)
Based on what I'm seeing, the vote is going to end up 2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1



And the person with the "2" will play their immunity idol!

Chief Rum 03-03-2011 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox (Post 2433903)
Absolutely.


Well, then, guess I am fooled. If Pass is a wolf in this game, I'll probably vote for him on Day One by rote from now on.

CrimsonFox 03-03-2011 02:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic (Post 2433849)
A few reasons for my vote today (and I apologize for not being around much last night or today)

-His quick switch off mau on day 1 when other candidates popped up.
-His quick jump on Jackal on day 2 when Lathum brought him up.
-His "pile-on" vote of mau to basically hide his vote on the day mau was lynched.
-He has been fairly quiet most of the game, staying under-the-radar

VOTE NTNDEACON


Everyone always looks at people that "make swtiches and moves" as wolves. I think wolves vote and stay where they are no matter what happens. Even if a wolf ends up being the top votegetter they would hang them out to dry. At least I know some people play this way. I don't think random switches always mean anything especially when there is no clear way to go (like day 1)

Incidently ntn is ALWAYS quiet and under the radar. That's why it's so hard to tell if he's a wolf (and for some reason equally hard to lynch)

CrimsonFox 03-03-2011 02:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 2433906)
Well, then, guess I am fooled. If Pass is a wolf in this game, I'll probably vote for him on Day One by rote from now on.


Good plan.

Autumn 03-03-2011 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 2433902)
I think we can both agree the second reveal was poorly done. mau was trying one last gasp to save himself there. But it's actually irrelevant to this discussion, because mau revealed his "scan" of me under the auspices of the first reveal (as a seer), not the second. mau made an unwise decison to hold himself off from being lynched on Day One by doing the early fake seer reveal when he probably should have just fallen on the sword.

You keep talking about mau's scans like they were real. It was all fake. There was no scan decision he made prior to the deadline, only whatever lie he would cook up hours later when he revealed his "scans". Your argument seems to be that the other wolves will have advised him it's a good idea to reveal that he scanned a fellow wolf (me, in your hypothetical) and reveal him as a villager. You know a wolf team isn't going to do that, and in particular, you know a wolf team with a veteran like me is not going to advise that.

You're really asking for us to believe some phenomenally dumb moves by every single wolf in the game if you think they decided to have mau try to hide a wolf behind a fake seer scan on Day One.


I'm not sure why you're arguing this point, you don't seem to understand me. I don't in any sense think that Mauboy's scan was real. I'm suggesting that it's possible he used his fake scan to try to buy trust for a wolf. While this would normally be a sketchy idea he made two other sketchy choices - one to reveal as the seer on day one, the second even sketchier to make up a fake role to suggest he wasn't the seer, that on day two or three. So I'm saying there is plenty of evidence of him making bad wolf decisions, decisions placed at least a day apart, leaving plenty of time for supposed guidance from the other wolves.

So, while I agree that it is unlikely a wolf team with a veteran wolf would advise "scanning" a wolf, I also believe a veteran wolf team would not suggest he make up a fake role. So either this is not a veteran wolf team, or he was not listening to his wolf team. If so then all bets are off on why he made his fake scan decision.

CrimsonFox 03-03-2011 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan (Post 2433832)
Not to be a prick but please no more bolded votes from players that are out of the WW portion of the game but still in the race... Thank you.

I skip over anything not bolded when looking at the votes so it doesn't matter to me if you say it just don't bold it please.

(trying to keep it as easy on myself as possible when trying to recalculate the votes later)


I think Danny is suspicious for trying to confuse EF. Better vote for him as a wolf again just to be sure.

Autumn 03-03-2011 03:05 PM

Looks like we have a vote on pass, a vote on NTN, and my vote. I'm taking it off of Mckerney to one of Jag, Chief, Hoops or Pass. I'm not going to vote Chief right now as I feel our arguing has clouded things there. I think these four make better targets right now than NTN, so I'm not going to second Pass. So it's either JAG or Hoops. This is pretty much a toss-up to me.

UNVOTE MCKERNEY

CrimsonFox 03-03-2011 03:14 PM

JAG:Was quiet until we said he was quiet, now is playing Chief inspector. Trying to "look good" perhaps? (No, Jag we will NEVER be happy! :))
CR: I had my suspicions, but now he seems pretty good. No real idea here.
ntn: Absolutely no idea. It is impossible to tell if ntn is a wolf by what he says. Only thing to look at is his voting and everyone says that is solid villager.
PF: Really have no read on him. He hasn't said a lot. He definitely could be a wolf, possibly brutal.
cougarfreak: HIs one outburst when he voted seemed odd to me. I haven't looked at his voting but I think he is a good wolf candidate. Can easily play the "I'm new" card and legitimately get away with it.
GE: Can only be the cunning. He MIGHT be the cunning. But not worth voting for, as has been said before, especially with the scan.
mckerney: Not sure. I thought mck was clear especially for starting the mau brigade the day of his lynch. Or perhaps the wolves were tired of mau and wanted to get rid of him or thought it was funny. But really I can't see them STARTING the roll of votes, just jumping on after it was started.
hoops: Thanks to the "hoops legend" where people get rid of him day 1-2, I have never actually played a game this long with hoops in either form. SO I really have no idea what he's like. He seems villagerish, but I think at least one of the wolves is a superlongtime player for sure. This could be him.
Pass: Erratic and outbursty. Accusatory and borderline dick about his accusations. I learned from KWhit that this strategy does work sometimes as a wolf.
Autumn: He's been the good guy sherlock holmes the whole game. Thing is, he always has very concise and good information most games I've seen him. He also fits the longtime player thing. I see this as being a strong possibility.

Chief Rum 03-03-2011 03:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn (Post 2433909)
I'm not sure why you're arguing this point, you don't seem to understand me. I don't in any sense think that Mauboy's scan was real. I'm suggesting that it's possible he used his fake scan to try to buy trust for a wolf. While this would normally be a sketchy idea he made two other sketchy choices - one to reveal as the seer on day one, the second even sketchier to make up a fake role to suggest he wasn't the seer, that on day two or three. So I'm saying there is plenty of evidence of him making bad wolf decisions, decisions placed at least a day apart, leaving plenty of time for supposed guidance from the other wolves.

So, while I agree that it is unlikely a wolf team with a veteran wolf would advise "scanning" a wolf, I also believe a veteran wolf team would not suggest he make up a fake role. So either this is not a veteran wolf team, or he was not listening to his wolf team. If so then all bets are off on why he made his fake scan decision.


No, I am understanding you perfectly. I just don't buy what you're selling.

Mau makes three key decisions. He hints at being the seer an hour or two before deadline on Day One. Then around midday on Day Two he reveals his scan (me). Then either late on Day Two or on Day Three (I forget which, I think it was early Day Three) he revealed he isn't the seer, but some special role with limited "film scan" abilities.

I believe mau made the first decision on his own. He was feeling the heat and up for the lynch. He didn't want to go down first day as a wolf. So he did the fake seer reveal. This is actually not that bad of a move; while it's certain he will eventually get caught, it probably buys him at least a day and might even get the real seer to reveal.

It's the "scan" decision where you completely lose me. So here we are, mau is thought to be the seer and now the village is clamoring for his seer scan. It is more than half a day later; plenty of time for the remaining wolves to be pinging him with PMs about what he should say. I am supposed to be one of those wolves in your scenario. You're saying that they are telling him to use his "scan" to hide a wolf--knowing he will soon be revealed--knowing his scans will be scrutinized for exactly the play you're suggesting. This is my disconnect. No way they tell him to do that. And with them telling him this, I don't believe mau just does this on his own. He won't willfully implicate a fellow wolf with his scan against the wishes of his fellow wolves.

His third decision was probably his own, but I think he only did it because he knew the gig was about up, with the seer not being targeted on Night Two. He was trying to find some other way to talk himself out of his earlier reveal. Well, villager didn't buy it. It wasn't really a very good decision, but his options were limited at this point. There was no way he was going to avoid being outted in the long run.

I see what you're saying. I just don't see a wolf team with me on that team--or any other moderately veteran wolf--making that scan decision, nor do I see mau willfully going against his fellow wolves' wishes in that situation.

Chief Rum 03-03-2011 03:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn (Post 2433912)
Looks like we have a vote on pass, a vote on NTN, and my vote. I'm taking it off of Mckerney to one of Jag, Chief, Hoops or Pass. I'm not going to vote Chief right now as I feel our arguing has clouded things there. I think these four make better targets right now than NTN, so I'm not going to second Pass. So it's either JAG or Hoops. This is pretty much a toss-up to me.

UNVOTE MCKERNEY


Actually to be fair, I apologize if you see this as arguing per say (witht he negative connotations thereof). I don't deny there was ugliness between me and Pass yesterday. I honestly believe you buy into what you're saying and we just have a disagreement here about how to interpret it. I view our discussion here as a rational one bringing in evidentiary points on each of our sides.

That doesn't mean it doesn't cloud things, but just to show you, I don't view our discussion here in a negative light like I did yesterday's tiff with Pass.

JAG 03-03-2011 03:21 PM

I am seriously having a surreal moment here. The person I thought was second most deserving of trust has a vote by the person I thought was third most deserving and suspicion from the only scanned villager left, the person I trusted third least to start the day has a vote on who I was leaning towards voting, meanwhile the person I trusted most thinks the person I want to vote is an obvious villager.

mauchow 03-03-2011 03:21 PM

At least I've got this thread to read at work bored outta my mind.

Autumn 03-03-2011 03:23 PM

I don't want to keep rehashing this, Chief, as I have nothing new to say. But let me just say I don't agree with a couple of your assumptions there. He may very well have made the scan decision himself, maybe the other wolves weren't around, or he didn't listen to them, whatever.

The whole theory breaks down, however, if we don't put scrutiny on the person "scanned." So ironically by giving you a hard time about this I'm onlyi supporting your theory that a veteran wolf shouldn't make that play. If i don't give you a hard time about this, then it was a perfect move for a wolf to make.

I also wonder if Mau's second reveal was planned, and if so whether McKerney's vote, or any other early votes on Mauboy might have been in anticipation of that.

Autumn 03-03-2011 03:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG (Post 2433922)
I am seriously having a surreal moment here. The person I thought was second most deserving of trust has a vote by the person I thought was third most deserving and suspicion from the only scanned villager left, the person I trusted third least to start the day has a vote on who I was leaning towards voting, meanwhile the person I trusted most thinks the person I want to vote is an obvious villager.


I just got a headache trying to parse this.

Autumn 03-03-2011 03:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mauboy1 (Post 2433923)
At least I've got this thread to read at work bored outta my mind.


Feel free to contribute Mauboy! We're all eager to hear your thoughts on the situation.

Chief Rum 03-03-2011 03:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn (Post 2433925)
I also wonder if Mau's second reveal was planned, and if so whether McKerney's vote, or any other early votes on Mauboy might have been in anticipation of that.


It will be interesting at the end of the game to see which of our theories is the more correct.

This last thought here is also one that has occurred to me. I was actually accused of it by Pass for mau's first reveal, but I think we both agree that first move was likely to be a desperation move by mau in the face of being lynched. Such a move is much more likely for the second "reveal", especially if the wolves came to the logical assumption that it was only a matter of time before mau was outted.

Chief Rum 03-03-2011 03:28 PM

Well, escept I know your theory about me being a wolf is incorrect. ;)

I mean, more about the general thinking of the wolves in and around mau's reveal.

Chief Rum 03-03-2011 03:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn (Post 2433927)
I just got a headache trying to parse this.


I think I have the last part worked out. I think JAG has me as his most trusted, and Pass as least trusted, but I am calling Pass an "obvious villager". I think I even used that term. Or it could be ntn. But I don't think so.

CrimsonFox 03-03-2011 03:29 PM

Chief, you are doing a lot of assuming, which then feedsd the rest of your argument. You are assuming that all the wolves are telling mau what to do AND you're assuming he will listen to them. I do see what you're saying though. But I'm not convinced mau wouldn't do that, either because he thought people would buy it or thought it was funny or something or maybe because you as a wolf were yelling at him for his fake seer reveal). Not saying it's a brilliant move, just that some people do things for weird or emotional reasons. You may be right of course that maybe mau said you as a villager knowing you were a villager to gain some trust. But that's all several moves ahead type of stuff. I think everything those first two days was a series of panic moves. I also see the wolves just saying "Sheesh, you're on your own", especially after the martin debacle.

hoopsguy 03-03-2011 03:29 PM

Danny, do you want to walk me through why you think Pass is a poor vote today? Because I'm with Autumn and Crimson on their "nope" to the logic that Chief outlined for Pass = villager.

JAG 03-03-2011 03:30 PM

Danny, if you're still reading, what's your take on Pass?

CrimsonFox 03-03-2011 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn (Post 2433928)
Feel free to contribute Mauboy! We're all eager to hear your thoughts on the situation.


\
Yes, Mauboy, tell us who yelled at you for making up paparazzi and seer reveal. Who yelled the loudest, what names did they call you, etc.

Autumn 03-03-2011 03:32 PM

Yes, another angle to take would be to look at those who were openly skeptical of Mau's reveal, yet didn't get immediately night killed as CF and DV did.

JAG 03-03-2011 03:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2433936)
Danny, do you want to walk me through why you think Pass is a poor vote today? Because I'm with Autumn and Crimson on their "nope" to the logic that Chief outlined for Pass = villager.


Alright, that timing is eerie.

Autumn 03-03-2011 03:32 PM

Danny's so popular all of a sudden!

CrimsonFox 03-03-2011 03:33 PM

Ya know I wonder if Chief is playing the EXTREME logic game as a wolf, that is to take a simple accusatory statement and write such a novel about each and every piece of it that it infuriates the person accusing and they blow up making them look wolfish. And in the end everyone forgets what the actual question was.

JAG 03-03-2011 03:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn (Post 2433927)
I just got a headache trying to parse this.


You can substitute actual players by looking at my list from earlier today.

CrimsonFox 03-03-2011 03:40 PM

I think JAG and hoops called each other to make that post together. They are BFFs

hoopsguy 03-03-2011 03:48 PM

Crimson, I just realized that you are in the same "trusted dead guy" state as Danny. I haven't been doing as good a job of tracking this stuff over the last day or two. Anyway, glad that you are being vocal today, even if some of the comments seem more aimed for laughs than pure analysis.

Autumn 03-03-2011 03:50 PM

I'm going to go ahead and vote JAG. I've already gone over any reasoning for the vote. Nothing really particular on him, I just think we should have another candidate besides Pass and I'm not sure NTN is the smartest one.

VOTE JAG

CrimsonFox 03-03-2011 03:50 PM

How could you not know I was dead? One of the big twists in this game was that I was killed instead of Lathum the BG.

CrimsonFox 03-03-2011 03:52 PM

And yeah, sorry if I'm not much help today analyzingwise. At this point I literally don't know. I've gotten "vibes" from people but I think we're really dealing with really skilled players and I also think the village has done a lot of work for the wolves. I like Pass and Jag votes. But I"d also like Autmn/CR/Hoops votes just because I think one of you three is also a wolf.

Danny 03-03-2011 03:53 PM

I'm in high demand! Let me start by saying I'm not as against voting pass as much as chief isn though I would be unlikely to vote him if I had one.

I think his spout with chief in addition to him being willing to work with me on a potential 3rd candidate is my reasoning. I lean strongly toward ntn being a villager which means we likely had two of three vote getters as villagers (along with pass himself). If he's a wolf, why would he not just vote one of us? Especially me, knowing he had a great excuse for the vote as self defense.

My only gut concern about him is after I commented about his reserved play he really starting going a bit over the top.

hoopsguy 03-03-2011 03:54 PM

Autumn, the D1 reveal by mauboy seemed really odd to me. I read it shortly after it happened and kept waiting for someone to react to it in some manner. I think if you re-read my post on it, 30 minutes after the fact, you'll see that I'm not really decided on whether I believe it but astonished that pre-deadline business seemed to be carrying on as if that post wasn't there.

I think a wolf looking to flip their vote would have been more likely to try and call it out before I did ... they certainly had time to do so. That makes me discount, to some extent, the "pre-determined votes with intent to remove post-fake-reveal" idea that you've suggested.

Chief Rum 03-03-2011 03:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox (Post 2433945)
Ya know I wonder if Chief is playing the EXTREME logic game as a wolf, that is to take a simple accusatory statement and write such a novel about each and every piece of it that it infuriates the person accusing and they blow up making them look wolfish. And in the end everyone forgets what the actual question was.


Ha! Ask around about my rep, both with respect to logic and to long posts. :D

Allegiance ain't got nuttin' to widit.

Autumn 03-03-2011 03:58 PM

That's a good point, Hoops. I know I had missed his little "seer" bit entirely, and I'm not sure how common that is. Unfortunately that paints you worse, because as I was reading that earlier today I was thinking "Maybe the wolves realized no one was noticing his hint and Hoops was pointing it out for them." But you're right, there were not immediate vote changes. Maybe he took them by surprise. We know Martin wasn't around ;-)

hoopsguy 03-03-2011 03:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox (Post 2433958)
How could you not know I was dead? One of the big twists in this game was that I was killed instead of Lathum the BG.


It was just one of those things where I wasn't 100% factoring in the "cleared guy posting in thread!" stuff early on, when we had a more crowded room. Then I was on the block yesterday and spent some time seriously contemplating what the game would be like for me if I was lynched.

So I more or less locked in on Danny (yesterday's lynch) without really carefully accounting for the other players who were already in the same position and who should be strong voices the rest of the way even if they can't cast votes.

Danny 03-03-2011 04:00 PM

These are very difficult votes due to our wolf lynched being runaway meaningless votes. Normally two wolf lynches would give you tons of valuable info.

hoopsguy 03-03-2011 04:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn (Post 2433965)
That's a good point, Hoops. I know I had missed his little "seer" bit entirely, and I'm not sure how common that is. Unfortunately that paints you worse, because as I was reading that earlier today I was thinking "Maybe the wolves realized no one was noticing his hint and Hoops was pointing it out for them." But you're right, there were not immediate vote changes. Maybe he took them by surprise. We know Martin wasn't around ;-)


I'm not in position to tell anyone how to interpret my actions. I'm just reacting to something I saw in the thread and trying to give context to the reaction.

FWIW, I think that I would have moved my vote at that time if I wasn't already on NTN. It just wasn't worth potentially burning the seer on Day 1.

Chief Rum 03-03-2011 04:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2433963)
Autumn, the D1 reveal by mauboy seemed really odd to me. I read it shortly after it happened and kept waiting for someone to react to it in some manner. I think if you re-read my post on it, 30 minutes after the fact, you'll see that I'm not really decided on whether I believe it but astonished that pre-deadline business seemed to be carrying on as if that post wasn't there.

I think a wolf looking to flip their vote would have been more likely to try and call it out before I did ... they certainly had time to do so. That makes me discount, to some extent, the "pre-determined votes with intent to remove post-fake-reveal" idea that you've suggested.


Actually, that was more Pass suggesting that yesterday when he was trying to explain away my second and longer vote stay on mau. Autumn was talking about the second reveal a couple days later, and I tend to agree with his thinking on that one being a distinct possibility.

I think good votes on Day 1 mean a lot more than good votes on Day 3, for this game at least.

Autumn 03-03-2011 04:15 PM

I just read many pages of this thread to try to get something to hang my hat on. All I came away with is I don't know why it wasn't obvious to us at the time that Mauboy was faking it. He posted after the night deadline, said nothing about his scan and went to bed. lol oh man.

Danny 03-03-2011 04:16 PM

Maybe not much help, but if I was ranking my vote preference today it might go like this

JAG


Pass
Hoops and Autumn
Cougar
Packer
Mckerney
CR
NTN

Maybe something like that, obviously I now take back what I said on pass as looking at him in regards to everyine else, he is a good candidte with jag I think. I would still 100 percent vote jag though

hoopsguy 03-03-2011 04:27 PM

Does someone have a vote count?

CrimsonFox 03-03-2011 04:29 PM

Actually Danny I came to the same concusion. If I had a vote today, it would be Jag.

Mainly because I'm looking at people who are quiet until you tell them they are quiet, and then are very talkative. Pass would be my second choice for his intensity and insistence on doing a cunning hunt but that could just be zealoutness.

hoopsguy 03-03-2011 04:58 PM

I'll go along with the voice of our dead villager allies. I'll value that above what I think (by a fairly small margin) is the correct play today because I know - barring anything really silly that isn't spelled out in the rules - their opinions are offered without any motivation to steer us wrong.

UNVOTE PASS
VOTE JAG

ntndeacon 03-03-2011 05:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny (Post 2433972)
Maybe not much help, but if I was ranking my vote preference today it might go like this

JAG


Pass
Hoops and Autumn
Cougar
Packer
Mckerney
CR
NTN

Maybe something like that, obviously I now take back what I said on pass as looking at him in regards to everyine else, he is a good candidte with jag I think. I would still 100 percent vote jag though



I assume GE would be toward the bottom of this list too, Danny.
I think it is getting close to time to start looking into those that there is limited opinion about... namely Packer, cougar, mckerney who have all joined me in the quieter approach to the game.

cougarfreak 03-03-2011 06:08 PM

Well, there seems to be a whole lot of talking going on, but not much being said. I voted Pass yesterday, and am inclined to do so again today. Is there a vote count out there?

EagleFan 03-03-2011 06:24 PM

As of post 1587:

JAG 2 - Autumn (1570), hoopsguy (1585)
ntndeacon 1 - PackerFanatic (1508)

Danny 03-03-2011 06:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ntndeacon (Post 2434008)
I assume GE would be toward the bottom of this list too, Danny.
I think it is getting close to time to start looking into those that there is limited opinion about... namely Packer, cougar, mckerney who have all joined me in the quieter approach to the game.


The thing is, both Packer and Mckerney have votes in their favor from day 1. Packer made the first vote on Mauboy (MartinD later would have been vote #2, I doubt the wolves would vote 1-2 for a fellow wolf. Mckerney also had a solid vote later in the day for Mauboy.

ntndeacon 03-03-2011 06:31 PM

Well Iam fine for voting JAG, I just don't want it to be a runaway if we can get info from it.

ntndeacon 03-03-2011 06:32 PM

Vote JAG

EagleFan 03-03-2011 06:36 PM

As of post 1591:

JAG 3 - Autumn (1570), hoopsguy (1585), ntndeacon (1591)
ntndeacon 1 - PackerFanatic (1508)

EagleFan 03-03-2011 06:40 PM

To answer a question about the race/game.

The werewolf portion will end when it plays itself to the end (one way or the other). The race will end on the final leg which will be after we get to the final three teams as it does on the show.

Either may end first and the other will continue until it ends.

Chief Rum 03-03-2011 06:42 PM

I'm not in love with JAG as a candidate, but I have already spoken much about my thoughts on ntndeacon. I don'tt hink I can go there.

I'll go with a third canddiate, one brought up by Autumn earlier today. If anyone has been taking possible advantage of knowing mau was going to reveal, it would be mckerney with his early Day 3 vote on mau. Plus, as ntn has said, he has fallen back into being a little too quiet.

VOTE MCKERNEY

EagleFan 03-03-2011 07:03 PM

As of post 1594:

JAG 3 - Autumn (1570), hoopsguy (1585), ntndeacon (1591)
ntndeacon 1 - PackerFanatic (1508)
mckerney 1 - Chief Rum (1594)

JAG 03-03-2011 07:08 PM

Not much more I can think of to make the case for myself. I regret being so locked into Danny that I didn't sufficiently consider alternatives. I had the same thoughts about saldana last game and it paid off, but obviously not so this go around.

mauchow 03-03-2011 07:17 PM

This WW has been like a bad comedy novel so far. Silly twists (my reveals), long-winded stories (nearly everyone today) with no points. I'm reading a lot of this stuff and it's funny, from my perspective anyway.

Keep it going though, I need something to do during my work days :)

Autumn 03-03-2011 07:37 PM

Wow a lot of votes still missing. This seems to be a new trend, not voting until the last hour. Odd.

cougarfreak 03-03-2011 07:41 PM

I'm sticking to my guns from yesterday.........I still think I get a wolfy smell from Pass.

vote Pass

EagleFan 03-03-2011 07:43 PM

As of post 1599:

JAG 3 - Autumn (1570), hoopsguy (1585), ntndeacon (1591)
ntndeacon 1 - PackerFanatic (1508)
mckerney 1 - Chief Rum (1594)
Passacaglia 1 - cougarfreak (1599)


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