Now that we have determined who in the NBA has the virus, when can the rest of us get tested?

Today is the first day I felt some real fear when looking out at the next 12-24 months. Economically and education-wise for the kids. Financially I can weather the long run but there's a ton of our country that cannot.

Yeah, there's a bit of "throwing the baby out with the bath water" on a 2-3 month lockdown. Don't get me wrong, I think doing this initially for 3-4 weeks is the right move. But, we have to start transitioning back into society and giving businesses a way to stay in business. In Mid April, allowing smaller gatherings (maybe under 25 people), re-opening restaurants and movie theaters while still recommending people stay home when possible seems reasonable. I also think looking at getting kids back in school at that point isn't a bad idea. This doesn't seem to impact kids and we can find ways to protect older teachers - but our police/fire/nurse/doctor/scientist population with kids needs to be able to go back to work. Plus, losing 2-3 months of school isn't ideal either. We can keep extra curricular activities cancelled, but we need atleast a couple days a week of classroom time for kids.

Confirmed case in the assisted living facility where my Dad lives.

We don't lose them permanently, just temporarily. I'm curious if you've read JPhillips' link to the discussion of the Imperial College report? I'm inclined to agree with that analysis/science (basically that the cost of not extending the shutdown is worse than the cost of doing so).

I read it and I wish I hadn't. :)

If what it says is true, we're not getting back to normal until sometime in 2021.

I am all for having hope, etc, but if I'm back working in the office before August, I will be surprised.

Hopefully warm weather can impact this thing.

Jesus man, how scary. Hoping for the best.

I am with you regarding the disruptions. I can weather the financial storm and deal with the kids. Wife works for Duracell so her job is as safe as can be. She also works from home.

My big concern is if supply chains start shutting down. There is such an economic divide in this country already it would be made way worse. There are people out there now who don't have what they need. Imagine if essentials get scarcer. Lots of looting and theft.

Fuck dude. Hoping for the best.

The impact of social media and the minute-to-minute information on this stuff is kind of fascinating. I'm sure there's good and bad to it.

If I was younger, not working, without responsibility, without a sense that I needed to be involved and help (a lot of ifs), I'd consider just going camping for a month or shutting myself off from all news or outside contact for a month. Not to protect myself, but just to escape, to have a unique experience. I wonder if there's anyone doing that.

Edit: Maybe I'll try it for a weekend.

I have a friend who's watching two of her daughter's schoolmates and I'm like...are you quarantining them with the two of you for the duration? Because otherwise...

88 cases in Ohio and businesses are being asked to take the temperature of employees.

Finally! We found something he's perfectly suited for: talking about killing people in a non-compassionate way.


SI

This is what I'm most afraid of.

At what point does the prevention become worse than the disease?

He is doing a fine job of it with the market!

Kind of morbid, but if the dead start piling up what do we do with them. Funeral homes would obviously be over run, and people wouldn't be having services anyway. would they just get stored in morgues until burials could happen? Is there even the capacity? Forced cremation? You think of mass graves as something that happens in the third world, but is that an option? What happens to the people who die at home? Will there be ambulances, etc...to pick them up?

I think that's something that is lost on a lot of people, is what a lonely and horrible death it is. It isn't sit around the bedside and hold mom's hand as she passes. It's more like mom dies alone. It's awful and tragic, and I hope by some miracle it doesn't get as bad as it could here.

I don't see any real danger of supply chains shutting down. Nobody's talking about closing essential businesses like that. You'd have to have enough dead (way worse numbers than anyone is seriously contemplating, black death-level decimation percentage-wise) before that's a real concern IMO. At that point yeah the overreaction argument could definitely be had, but again that's so far beyond what we're talking about here. This is a bad virus, not an extinction-level event.

Long ago I read an article about a group that went on a long outdoor trip (think it was rafting the Grand Canyon) on 9/9/2001. They didn't get off the river until a week or so afterwards and stepped into a completely changed world.

Iran was apparently digging mass graves a few days ago:
Coronavirus mass graves in Iran allegedly shown in satellite images as experts question country's official virus figures - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)


SI

I just turned away a neighbor's kid. Make me the bad guy, why don't you.

You're the neighbor they need, even if you aren't the one they want right now.

We have a chain text of girl scout moms and me ( oh yeah! :cool: ) with about 10 of us on it.

One of the moms has a decent amount of land and sent a text saying " come over tomorrow for a social distancing nature walk at 4:30"

No one replied to it and I was glad.

Last foray out for the next couple of weeks here-Walmart finally feeling the pinch here-lots of empty shelves. Still a fair amount of folks out though bringing in infants unless you had no other choice probably not the best idea.

JaredLetoDigs had this 2 weeks ago

I've heard that the 1st person in Indiana to die from this had to say goodbye to their spouse, who gave it to them to start with, via Facetime.

Gut wrenching shit.

Trump is definitely outflanking the left in this crisis. Cash payments, foreclosure suspension, and taking over private factories to produce supplies.

Pelosi and Schumer are completely worthless hacks who should step down.

I am still out working. What I am seeing here is people just annoyed. I had it called "just a cold" by a man that would be in a high-risk group. My wife's and daughters eye centers are still open. They will not close unless they are forced to. My boss and their bosses are refusing to believe they will be forced to shut down.

This is how I imagine the US in 6 months

Yeah, they were Dem ideas, that are now being put into play and practice that were long called stupid, overbearing, or unneeded. That's a win. You can claim that all day long and point fingers at the other side in the process.

dola


Where are the hard core "free-market capitalists" in all this?



You know, the ones who never want any government help, that the world should just fall as it will and supply and demand will fix everything?

Our state legislature is still hard at work passing anti-trans bills and abortion trigger bills that would render abortion a felony offense for the doctor the second Roe v. Wade is overturned. (a good reminder of the potential impact of a tantrum non-vote or protest vote if their preferred Dem doesn't get nominated).

Whether that actually happens depends lot on what business you are in. Someone I used to work with recently just said they were irritated with all the news and it wasn't that big of a deal. Didn't even bother arguing because it's a waste of time but I can't find one single intelligent person who has educated themselves on the subject or expert in a vaguely relevant field who is still standing behind that approach.

I agree this won't be an ELE (love Deep Impact movie!) or even near ELE but degradation of the supply chain is happening now and there will be shortages.

Supply chain can mean many things but its pretty clear supply chain on test kits, respirators, whatever drugs used for treatment etc. are in shortage.

Supply chain on household good including sanitizers, toilet paper, and yeah, let's toss in guns & ammo are impacted.

Supply chain on food, there is reduction in variety & quantity of staples like eggs, fresh meats, potatoes etc. Also food from outside the country like mangos from Mexico, pineapples from Hawaii, bananas from wherever etc.

It's not critical in the sense we will have starvation, but we'll get uncomfortable and "highly inconvenienced" not being able to buy what we want and when we want it. I will add its not inconceivable that getting food to places can take a hit, if this lasts an extended time. Truck drivers, rail workers, distribution centers will all be degraded some.

There will be a period of another 8 weeks where it'll be challenging.

There will be a new normal where the vulnerable and their helpers will have to self-isolate. IMO they should start talking about that now to prepare people and implement this in 2-4 weeks.

I was listening to The Daily the other day and they had an Italian doctor on and he was talking about this. It wasn't actually something I had given much thought to. But really, once someone goes into the hospital, that's it and they don't get to see anyone, nor does anyone get to see them, again. Not to mention that they were so busy that sometimes they were forgetting to call people and tell them that their loved ones had died.

the US has officially passed S Korea in cases. Should end up with close to 9k +/- cases by the end of the day if the rate holds.

Curious where you got the data from? The chart I'm looking at still shows us behind.

On the flip side, we've had potential community exposure here by a medical professional in St Louis. The excitement, and other stuff, are in the air.

From the Worldmeters site that is updated almost in real time.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Thank you, thank you.

Definitely true and I expect this to be a permanent issue for however long the outbreak lasts which I'm not prepared to even speculate on. When I say supply chain, I'm talking about the normal flow of things not the spike in demand for equipment like this, some of which like test kits for coronavirus didn't even exist, because the virus was not known, even six months ago. I think that's what the other posters were referring to as well. .


Also true but a lot of this is an initial panic-buying spike which has already dissipated significantly in many areas. The actual supply of many of these things is ramping up, not slowing down as suppliers & retailers up and down the chain do what they can to adjust. I totally agree with you that there are and will continue to be temporary outages; the nightmare scenario though is what happens if there is a significant reduction in actual supply across the board, or even cutting off of entire sectors of the economy. I think that fits more with what Lathum said about such things 'shutting down', in his words. That's the area where I would say it crosses into unrealistic fearmongering territory. There's no reason that needs to happen. . For example, retailers are now hiring temporary workers from the food service industry to keep up with the former's demand while the latter is out of work. There's a certain amount of adjustment to ease supply issues that the economy can and is doing.

Office supply guy tried to order a new laptop for an employee from our usual source, and was informed that they were sold out. An unexpected wrinkle until you stop to consider the number of people now working form home.

I got basically the same here. We ordered 3 laptops with our usual suppliers. Ordering more than that was possible, but at about 150% of the normal price and with a delivery date of 2 weeks instead of 2 days. It's marginal in the grand scheme, but I told our crisis team we were accidentally and luckily well prepared with basically all that can work at home already geared up. Co-workers that still have to show up for 24/7 care, well, obviously there's no point in having a laptop to take home.

We've been able to get a few laptops, but good luck finding a docking station right now.

Andrew Yang? Being in an election year doesn't help here, weirdly I think this is a place having 12 politicians trying to stand out on a debate stage could've helped spur some deeper discussion.
Not sure why you'd cancel extra-curriculars if you're going to have kids in school. I coach lacrosse - do you really think having kids out on a large field for a couple hours after being in close contact with (more) kids all day will increase their risk of getting it?
That's not how small businesses work. You can't just close them for 6-18 months and expect them to pick back up where they left off.

Yes I read the report, and I think it's using a lot of very suspect assumptions. South Korea seems like the one nation where confirmed case & death toll #'s might be close to accurate, and the spread was much more contained & the mortality rate much lower than other places. Considering you can use 3D printers for many of the parts the ventilator issue alone seems like one that's pretty easy to overcome in the medium term if we focus on it, same with testing now that we have focused on it.

The next two weeks will be telling... our best case scenario right now really is that the virus was here and spreading by mid-February (and there is anecdotal evidence it was), it just didn't catch people's attention until the Washington nursing home cluster happened at the same time as northern Italy stories started running rampant. If that's true, it would mean that it's not nearly as deadly as stories from northern Italy that are driving much of the hysteria make it seem. We should 100% be protecting and isolating older people as much as possible, since they are 100% of the confirmed deaths so far, but I'm glad we have a couple public data points in the 7 NBA players and the 77? people who caught it at the Biogen conference who presumably aren't as young & healthy as NBA players, but still fairly wealthy and early enough they have access to great medical care if they need hospitalization. If any of the NBA players die from it, oh yeah we're fucked, but I doubt that'll happen, and so far Massachusetts (which I realize only has like 53 of the Biogen cases) is still reporting 0 deaths.

Dallas allegedly having hospitalized (is it just 2?) people under the age of 40 is interesting to me, Ohio starting to check people's temperatures is interesting to me because nobody's clarified why temperature checks matter if you're infectious when not showing symptoms, and yes I know it's foolish to make guesses with so much riding on the next couple weeks, but if we're sitting here in 3-4 weeks with almost no deaths under the age of 50 & a peaked death rate we're going to need to have a serious conversation about how we can protect seniors and people with underlying conditions while the rest of us are allowed to live normal lives and keep the economy functioning. Obviously real life is different and we all have empathy and personal connections, but if I'm being super cynical I'd point out that this is just boomers asking their children and grandchildren to sacrifice for them without regard to the long term consequences for the younger generations, (and if this was any resource management game where we had the choice between shutting down the economy for 18 months or allowing a disease to kill off the weakest 1% of the population it wouldn't even be a question for any of us.)

Interesting numbers from the most nearby prominent hospital treating covid19 patients: all employees with even minor symptoms get tested, 50 positives on roughly 1000 tested. As far as they could figure out, they all picked it up in the outside world, not from treating Corona patients. This thing is already going around in our society.

Can you imagine if we had a full-fledged social media and better data tracking back in 2009 when the Swine Flu broke out?

The whole world might have been shut down back then as well.

There's a difference between picking back up where they left off, which I'm not suggesting, and losing them, which is what you said. A lot of industries will see long-term pain and regrowth required. But they won't totally disappear either.

Vis a vis South Korea: sure, but we're not doing what they did. China appears to have contained it as well, and I think the virus will mutate and weaken as it goes like viruses do. But I do think we have to be prepared to take drastic steps for as long as is needed to get to the point of containment. And I don't think we have a remotely good handle on how much time that will take yet.


Right but nobody is saying shutting down the economy entirely. Not even Italy, Spain, etc. are doing that and certainly the less drastic steps most of the US it taking isn't. I.e in food service here, drive-thru and carryout are still happening so large sectors of even that part of the economy are still going. If they were totally left open they'd still be taking a hit, like the airlines are to an even greater degree, in their business. Numbers I'm seeing are 70-85% of establishments seeing a significant sales decline. Point is, this isn't an all-or-nothing deal. There is no 'keeping the economy running like it was' option.

To me, it comes down to the fact that you can't protect and isolate the older population without eliminating non-essential public gatherings. And even then you're exposing them to increased risk from family members etc. I certainly wish there were a path to segregate them from potential harm but that's not how our society is organized - to get the supplies of daily life they need, they are going to have to be exposed to some degree. Given the degree to which people of all ages depend on the medical system in general, it's not just the weakest 1%. ALL conditions requiring medical treatment are impacted if this spirals out of control. Until we're sure that's not going to happen - and if we can prevent it, great - it's far better to shut down those things that we can.

Maybe 400,000 wouldn’t have died then.

And now we're past France. Though to Arles' point, it does appear that the death rate and critical cases are lower in the US than elsewhere, for which we can be thankful.

I think when it's all said and done, the Italy numbers will be a massive outlier when compared to the rest of the world. The combination of age+smoking+close proximity made for a "worst case" with any epidemic. That said, I fully support social distancing for the next 2-3 weeks to see what the numbers start coming back at. I'm just not ready to make the leap that we will still be on lockdown in June/July like many others seem to prefer/predict at this point.

It is the other way round: If this thing was as benign (relatively speaking) as the American Virus of 09 we would not be shutting down now.

The 'aditional' deaths ascribed in those studies (i assume the same as quoted from here: 2009 H1N1 Pandemic (H1N1pdm09 virus) | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC ) come from taking a guess at deaths in countries not tracking them at the time, i.e due to lack of laboratory tests etc. The death rate in the US f.e. was really low with roughly 13k from 60 mio cases within a year. Italy already has more deaths per capita after a few weeks and they are throwing the proverbial kitchen sink at the bastard.

And yes, i think it will be an outlier within Europe at least. But only because everybody else had a better start than they had (luck more than anything) and because measures are taken. Without those measures, every countries healtg system would be equally overloaded.

If Corona reaches 60 mio cases in the US within a year, this will be devastating. Now imagine what happens if this goes on unchecked in less developed countries.

Apparently Bay Area shelter-in-place means remote work, avoid nail salons (example Mayor gave), but go ahead and exercise out in the park with everyone else just as long as you stay 6ft away.

I guess it would work if everyone respected the 6ft distance. Time will tell.

Yeah, I think/hope this also.

I find the variance in fatality rates fascinating. I mean, how does Germany have only 28 deaths in over 12,000 confirmed cases? On the other hand, Spain appears as if they are on pace to match Italy.

All the parks in our area are still open and encouraging people to get out for some fresh air, but proceed with caution.

I just got back from the local park about an hour ago. Of the four courts, there was my son and I on one half of the court and two teenage brothers on the other side. A father and his son on half of the next court over. A young man by himself on the other half of that court. On the court furthest from us and separated by one court from everyone else,a father and his two young children were playing by themselves. There was an 60+ couple walking around the football field. All of us had no interactions with each other whatsoever and much more than a six feet distance.

And then on the football field itself, there was an ultimate frisbee game going on so......¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I have an employee who reports directly to me who has been out sick yesterday and today. This afternoon he called me to let me know his doctor administered a COVID-19 test, and that he would have the results in a couple of days. He hasn't been traveling, nor has he come into knowing contact with anyone who has the virus; it's a precautionary test because some of his symptoms line up with the COVID-19 symptoms.

I reached out to a fellow supervisor to ask his advice as to the best way to circulate the news to our workgroups without causing panic - we are first responders, and as such have been and will continue to work throughout the shelter-in-place order. After we discussed our options, I let him know I was reaching out to HR and then would disseminate the message to my team.

Before I get off the phone with HR, the other supervisor sent out an ePage (mass text message) to both of our workgroups indicating we had a positive test in our region. I don't know if I've ever had the same mixture of disbelief, frustration, and irritation as I am dealing with right now.

I wonder how much of the variance would be explained by testing criteria and availability? Likely for instance we had 12,000 cases in the US or more by the time we reached 28 deaths I'd almost bet, just not tested.

I had read earlier that it was because Germany was reporting patients with pre-existing conditions that died of the coronavirus as having died because of the pre-existing condition, not coronavirus.

However, I did some googling and recent articles that I found said it was basically unexplained at this time.

Not sure what to believe, my guess there is some truth in the former when it first started but would think cause of deaths are more accurate now.

Well, the numbers are moving. We had a 40% increase in the total number just today alone.

On the mortality rates, I'm in the 'we just don't know enough' camp. The graph on that at the worldometer site (thanks to everyone who's linked it) appears to show that the worldwide average bottomed out and is now starting to rise as the virus spreads. I'm taking all that stuff with a grain of salt right now because testing is still ramping up.

My boss' wife works with a confirmed case. We haven't closed our offices but are strongly encouraged to work from home, which I'll be doing. Inspecting cell phone towers isn't so bad from my easy chair.

In the meantime, I'll fly to Newark again tomorrow for some airport appreciation time.

Esper confirms Navy hospital ships won't treat coronavirus patients and will take weeks to deploy

Everything's a con, COVID edition.

Been mentioned in this thread a few times that the mass of corporate email blasts have been generally useless, but I just got one from OpenTable that actually made a suggestion that was useful to me: gift cards are a great way to support local restaurants & businesses right now & give them some capital.

Over 3k cases just in NY.

Very surprised if they don’t do the pseudo shelter in place.

Also letting out low risk prisoners.

I hadn't considered the prisoner release thing. Man, what a cultural shift this could be.

Yeesh... Good luck, I hate managerial incompetence like that.
"Industries" won't disappear, but many individual small businesses will. You can only put rent and mortgages on hold for so long before it affects the commercial real estate companies, and the banks, and the whole system. Restaurants/bars are the most egregious example since they're often a bad month or two away from going under, but that quickly expands to other sectors.

I don't think we have replicated South Korea's response (though I do think our country is much more spread out & has a lifestyle less conducive to spread between generations than SK or Italy), but I'm heartened by the low mortality total and rate. I don't trust any of the information coming out of China, but again I don't think containment is possible. Flattening (and lengthening) the curve may make sense for a quick 2-3 weeks while they can ramp up available tests, ventilators, make contingency plans for extra beds in hotspots, etc, but containment is out of the bag (especially with these half-assed measures like keeping airports open) and we need to focus on protecting the vulnerable people instead of tanking the whole economy.

70-85% of places seeing a significant sales decline mean that if we try to keep this up for the 18 months or whatever, they will close. Drive thru & carryout might keep the Wendy's afloat but all of your local restaurants and bars will close if this lasts 6+ months. The unemployment rate will shoot up to 20-25%, it will be borne primarily by poorer (and younger) people, and a $1000 check is nice but we do not have the resources or will to support that long term.

Why can't you? Why is it more plausible to pull 60 million schoolchildren out, cost 20-30 million Americans jobs, and ask all 330 million Americans to drastically alter their lifestyle to stay home when it's not essential, than to find a way to better isolate the 50 million in the 65+ age bracket who don't have full time jobs and aren't exactly going out to bars & sporting events & concerts?

Ehh, I think our jails are a little less crowded than Iran's... limiting/eliminating outside visitors & forcing them to do it through the glass now would make a lot more sense. Even if it did run rampant in a jail, most are in little danger from it & it would seem better to keep them contained in that environment instead of letting them out into one where they'll still be asked to stay inside, but also presumably be around older relatives.

Show me a better idea for how to do it, and I'll consider it. I haven't seen one proposed. If we had for example working teleportation technology, or a working fleet of millions of reliable drones, we could deliver a lot of the affected population what they need with no personal interaction. Of course we'd also need all of them to not be living with people who are still working, so the entire social structure of multi-generational habitation that is commonplace would also have to be changed. Do you know a feasible way to get these things done in a relevant timeframe?

It's not a case of either/or here. Because it's not possible in any way that I know to keep society functioning while still protecting the population we're talking about, I think it's best to find the least-bad options for maximizing our chances of not having a totally overrun medical system - or if that isn't possible, minimize said overrun. I certainly don't know where that line is, but I don't think the actions taken so far, extended over a longer period of time, are at all unwarranted.


I don't see how you can ramp up production of ventilators, beds, etc. in that short of a timeframe. But I think the major sticking point between your perspective on this and mine is simply this; how do you avoid tanking the whole economy if we run out of those things? I don't see any way that happens. And even if we get the physical items in place, you're never replacing the number of trained medical personnel you'd need for proper care, and that's just as essential. We had a nursing shortage before any of this even is factored in. If people who need medical treatment for other things can't get it, society will start to break down. Deaths from causes other than coronavirus will skyrocket, with ripple effects that seem to me inevitably far worse than the alternative. I most definitely could be wrong, but I see no way around this and we already have scattered reports of some hospitals running short on things. If it stops being scattered, this will get much worse.


That's places that are still fully open, before the shutdown orders started coming in. So if your conclusion is correct, a lot of them close anyway given how long it's likely to be before the coronavirus is no longer a major threat, because business will be suppressed for at least that long. A major shift in the economy from restaurants to retail as just the one example is happening no matter what we do, and it'll be replicated in other areas. That's what I meant earlier when I was talking about there being no good solution, only least bad ones, and that there simply is no 'keep things as they were' option.

AA factor that no one here appears to be considering is the significant amount of trauma that would be caused if we lost that 1% (if that number is even correct given our healthcare system and the potential for other health conditions to not get the care they need). These are people's parents, grandparents, aunts, uncles etc... many of our children are being raised / taught, etc by these people.

I work for the school district and in that community a significant portion of our kids are being raised by people in the high risk group. Even assuming only 1% of that community died, the level of trauma that would result is significant.

You think kids will have a quality education if people in their (and the staff members lives) start dying in high numbers from this? We had a teacher pass away suddenly last school year and the kids in her class had trouble learning anything the rest of the year given the trauma from the situation. Adverse childhood experiences have huge short and long term effects

Now I understand there is also risk of trauma and adverse experiences by what is going on now which is why we need to take all this into consideration and do what we can to walk a fine line that can support individuals, families, communities, and businesses while also keeping people alive and healthy.

On a personal note, my daughter was born a month ago. Some of her grandparents are in the high risk group I'd really like for them to be a part of her life.

I keep hearing comments about "we can't just tank the economy" and I hate to break it to you that are thinking it but, yes, we can, and its going to happen no matter what precautions/actions we take.

This country hasn't had anything like this since the Spanish flu of the early 1900's we'e not only forgotten how to deal with something on that scale but we've actively believed and taught ourselves that nothing like that can ever happen again.

Guess what, its here and its happening. This virus isn't going away and if even 50% of the population gets this we're looking at a million and a half deaths.

The economy will be fucked no matter what because as this threat carries on (and believe me it has only just begun, its not ending anytime soon) the panic will grow, the self isolation will not need to be mandated because the fear and panic will generate it on its own.

stop worrying about the fucking economy, start worrying about the social train wreck that could happen if we do not maintain as much isolation as possible.

Wednesday's CDC report sheds light on who it's affecting

Highlighted in the NYT article are these sobering facts:

** 38% of the 508 confirmed hospitalizations from the coronavirus were in the 20-54 age group

** Almost half of the 121 ICU patients were under 65.

I wish this were not so. But it is so, and does reinforce my thinking that there's no stopping this thing. There is only slowing it down, and surviving it as best we can.

It’s also not even nearly as easy as saying ‘Everyone 65+ stay home, the rest of us got this.’ There are other people in higher risk classes, are we actually confident we’ve identified all those factors? The death rate, while low for the younger population, is not 0%, so you are sentencing a number of people to death, especially the youngest of the population who have underdeveloped immune systems. Even discounting the death rate among younger people, the hospitalization rate might also be significant enough that hospitals are overwhelmed with COVID-19 cases and can’t handle other serious cases that can occur at the same time.

I don’t see how we can avoid having to require isolation until there is a sufficient medical solution (safe and effective treatment or vaccine). The economic issues require a political solution.

Michigan's first coronavirus casualty happened yesterday, and cases are starting to spike; mostly in the Detroit area, unsurprisingly. That's where the first one in the state was, big cities are a natural breeding ground, etc.

This is clearly the situation, to avoid the hospitals collapse, in Italy doctors are talking about how hard is to have to choose who do you save and who do you let to die.

But for sure this will become another seasonal flu and we all with go through it one day, just not all at the same time, that is the only reason for current measures.

In Spain we have been 4 days already isolated at home, you can only go out for food shopping or work (if you can't do remote and you need a certificate form your company) or take care of people. Police is in the streets issuing fines to whoever breaks it as some stupids still ignore it. As an anecdote, there was a young guy yesterday in the news that went to the police outside and asked them to arrest him as he couldn't stand being at home with his mother anymore.

In my company we sent everybody home (130 employees) a week ago and have been working remotely since then, but we are in the online business so for us it's not been a problem at all and having remote offices in several countries we are used to it. In fact our business is growing as people being at home worldwide means more app installs, but for the whole economy this is a hard hit and will take years to recover.

For a less doom and gloom look, here’s a more optimistic outlook: Thread by @trvrb: I've been mulling over the @MRC_Outbreak modeling report on #COVID19 mitigation and suppression strategies since it was posted on March 16.…

I know that some of the large biotech companies have started to roll out test kits. Roche has one and has shipped out 450,000 test kits. Abbott yesterday got approval for theirs and is shipping out 150,000, by the end of the month they supposedly will be able to ramp up to shipping 1 million test kits per week. BD I believe also has a test kit under FDA review and there may be others.

I think that's a good point. Until testing catches up to the need for it, which I agree will happen and hasn't yet, I don't think we really will start to know exactly what the best approach is. A lot of other things can't be scaled up past a certain point, but the testing issue is certainly solvable.

My daughter was tasked by her eye center with calling all 60+ year olds, and rescheduling their appointments. She called my wife crying because of the abuse she was taking, and none of the people she called was willing to reschedule.

Not theoretical, it's already happening in the US.

I know they are considered lower risk and get the rationale but still a scary thought of a bunch of felons released where a majority probably lack the support mechanism (even more so now) to integrate back into society.

Those felons were going to be released back into society sooner or later anyways.

I don't know about the amount of prisoners per facility, but as a country we incarcerate at least twice as many people per capita than Iran.

The combination of our inherent American individualistic thinking, the stubborn resistance to breaks in routine that many older folks have, and the initial downplaying by the administration and many in the right-wing media is going to be tough to overcome. I'm already seeing some dismissing the administration's change of message as "even Trump is capable of bowing to political correctness." It's maddeningly frustrating, and it sucks that your daughter caught flack for it.

Some good news?

https://www.foxnews.com/world/wuhan-...onavirus-cases

I don't know who's running DeWine's twitter, but he's killing it. (I know it's not him, because of obvious reasons, including the fact that he was tweeting during his press conference the other day)

This is an interesting chart related to the 1918 flu outbreak. #Ohio is trying to #FlattenTheCurve like St. Louis did -- they began #SocialDistancing only a few days after their first case. #COVID19#COVID19OhioReady pic.twitter.com/ytIHIBlSFn

— Governor Mike DeWine (@GovMikeDeWine) March 15, 2020

More like every 60+ year old feels entitled, because you know Boomers.

My parents made it back from Hawaii and are self quarantining now. I think they dodged the bullets, but damn if it wasn't nerve wracking to have them on the other side of the country and my teens in the Dominican as this progressed.

We've had one reported death in our county.

I have to take my daughter and her girlfriend to the university today to move them out, I'm hoping it is my last risk for exposure.

Keeping two teens, an eight year old and a 4 year old occupied has been demanding, I'm working from home today and tomorrow.

We're fully stocked and have movies if the net goes down.

I'm expecting the docs to cancel my 8 year old's surgery next week.

I'm also expecting my boss to discuss longer work from home opportunities, but I actually want to be present at work (not because I want to avoid the kids). I'm concerned that companies will start cutting soon and if I'm showing some sort essential need then I won't be considered during the first wave.

Thankfully it's a pharma company that supplies a third of the world inhalation anesthesia.

I'm sure China is being fully transparent.

this is the same generation that put Trump in office and continues to defend him. why should we expect anything more?

My wife and I had an interesting conversation last night regarding the balance for people working from home while trying to balance care of young children and schooling for older ones. Add in the stress of all of this, meal planning, etc...and it is a challenge on a professional level. Someone from HR talked to her yesterday about how to handle it. My wife is Senior VP/GM of sales, 2 steps below the CEO and her opinion is people have to focus on their families first. What we came up with is the CEO needs to change the messaging regarding the urgency behind getting certain things done. She is actually considering hiring a couple people and training them do do some simpler tasks. Reviewing numbers, etc...to take the pressure off some of her team.

A chat interaction from my office about people packing the bars on St Patrick's Day (weekend):

Person A: it is amazing how much freedom people have lost due to this virus but the amazing part is everyone is fine with it. if you want to go do these things then do them thats on you

Person B: yeah its not about you being responsible for yourself... its you affecting other people

Person A: you tell people hey this is a horrible idea then it is on the individual to succeed or fail on their own

Person C: Half the people are dumber than average

Person A: then let them fail. thats how you learn. my daughter falls all the time trying to walk i just let her get back up

Person D: They are not the ones who will pay the price of their actions. They catch it and pass it to my mom in the grocery store. SHE pays the price.

Person A: not if she washes her hands and limits interaction with others as much as possible not saying it is perfect but i don't like being told i can't do something


I should note that Person A did not go to the bar on St Patrick's Day but thinks it's perfectly fine for anyone who did. My profile says Boston, but I live near Charlotte now.

Sounds like they're handling it really well, that's great.

Some companies, mine included, have never really been work at home friendly. Even though I can literally do my work anywhere in the world as most people with jobs in today's climate can. It's most definitely because our leadership is borderline Boomer and a little younger. Basically "if I'm not watching you, I don't trust that you're working". They literally sent out paperwork for people to sign around this.

I was lucky I had a little leverage a number of weeks ago and already was working from home 3 days a week. PLUS my kids are 19 and 17, so not really a hardship. I don't know how people with small kids get anything done.

I love the mentality of person A blaming person D's Mom for the negligence of others, SMH. I am still going to physical therapy post rotator cuff surgery and replace me with that Mom and add random infected bar hopper and that whole practice could pass that on to numerous patients. All because nobody is going to tell person A what they can't do. Fucking childish mindset.

I am currently arguing with a guy in a facebook group who is in the "quarantine the at risk people and let everyone else live their lives" camp. when I informed him it is being reported 40% of hospitalizations are between 20-54 he told me I was fear mongering and I should go support a local business. You can't win with these people and it's the reason we are screwed.

So much for that. Sounds like North Korea can't handle the spread within their borders.

Can't say I've thought about this before

Coronavirus online school: Can closed schools offer special education?

My wife teaches special ed.

She is doing remote assignments and will be doing video soon. No real time interaction though. Not perfect, needs more parental involvement (which 60-70% couldn't care to do, school was a public-funded daycare). Yes, the students get short-changed for sure.

Now for my wife's office. Her first patient came in and said "I was at a conference this weekend that one person was later diagnosed with the virus, but I feel fine." The second said, Oh, I can't pick out glasses right now. My daughter I as to help me, but I left her home because she is very sick."
I am afraid Georgian's may just be too stupid to live.

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