I thought for sure Lathum was dead meat tonight too. Very strange day. I'm still trying to wrap my head around it. Wife's party didn't get over until after 10, so I just got home. I'll be more active tomorrow.

The only two possibilities I see are:

1) They wanted to plant suspicion about Lathum and get us to waste another voting day.

2) They forgot their kill order last night, weren't entirely certain that Lathum was telilng the truth and so decided to target someone else.

3) They forgot their kill order last night, and just didn't analyze tonight's sitaution enough to realize that hitting Lathum was the thing to do.

#3 would point towards a wolf team probably of newer players, for what it's worth. #2 points at a team terrified of Lathum, so that could be any experienced player ;-) #1 points at a team that knows how the village likes to self destruct.

Obviously the other solution is Lathum is a wolf, but that seems even more nonsensical, and easily solved down the line.

Any nice handbags?

Obviously I'm the only person forced on a Friday night to sit at my computer working on a rush project all night.

Yeah, Lathum as wolf doesn't seem at all likely to me, considering he revealed as BG to his teammate, who for all he knows is the real BG. I don't really see the upside. So that would seem pretty stupid to try and plant suspicion on Lathum in that manner, if that's the case.

Well, I have a couple suspicions but I"m going to wait and see what they do in thread before I start throwing vote ideas out. We've got all weekend.

Alright, well I'm out for the night. Later all.

Well, it might not have been a great idea, but the natural gut reaction of the village after Jackal comes up good is going to be a squinty eye on Lathum. Add it to him not being killed and there's a chance he gets votes. I agree, it doesn't add up in the end, but it's the sort of thing we do as a village, basically.

Well here's another conspiracy theory then. Maybe Mau fakes his seer reveal, and so they're still seer hunting. They don't want to leave them out there scanning while they go after the bodyguard, and they know Lathum won't know to guard the real seer.

just put the wee one down and made dinner, still trying to sort all this out

I went back and read CF's posts. This is the only thing that stood out, is that he made several strong posts suggesting doubt about Mauboy's reveal. He also had voted Mauboy before the reveal.

Coincidence? Red herring? Or is this why he died?

Autumn, I think you have it re: Crimson killing.

Well, at least that is what I was thinking might be reason for it. I wanted to spend some time reviewing posts from the first half of the day with that goal in mind ... seeing who might be dubious of the seer claim in an attempt to figure out if someone was covertly challenging a wolf seer bluff.

my head is seriously reeling right now.

Lathum - if you protected anybody else than yourself night 1 now is the time to speak up buddy. Otherwise I have absolutely no idea what is going on. On the face of it we've got some incompetent wolves, but really? One of them outed themselves and now they had a free shot at the BG and passed it up for no reason?

Yes I saw through mau's endless line of $*!t and I also did not change my vote off of him day one.

Was going back there tomorrow in fact. Beyond that I think Danny's answers and switches day one really stink. HIs blind leap to me and calling me "the second choice" were just weird. A Mau/Danny double wolf team would really suck.

*has a brew with Jackal and enjoys what's left of the race*

Holy cow I'm out for the day and the thread gains 6 pages.

I would like to point out that, after this post, I'll be tied for 15th in the thread in posts.

765 posts in two game days ... it is starting to feel like the old days of werewolf again in terms of bigger player counts and higher volume posting. I'm excited about this development.

I think there might be something to this. Danny picks up on CF in post #277 saying that he's picking someone at random "who's around" but CF hadn't posted in 50+ posts since then and wasn't even on the same page. Some people had posted 5-6 times since that point. Then mauboy switches a few posts later. CF ends up dead the next day.

Could just be teammates PM'ing and trying to drum up support for a new candidate, but there's really no point in playing as teammates in the werewolf portion of the game.

Since you can't do it I will for you.

Vote mauboy1

Hmm... Very interesting day. Wish I could say I was surprised about The Jackal, but in any case, it didn't really matter-- we had to rule him out.

As to the speculation on Danny, that is an intriguing idea to explore. Y'all might recall I earlier suggested that a wolf seer mau might have "scanned" me instead of his partner Danny because he knew when he was finally caught, his so called scan targets would be looked upon dubiously. It's unlikely but certainly possible that random.org put two wolves together...

Um, yeah, what the hell. Weird day today to say the least, I thought for sure that Jackal was a wolf. And then they kill Crimson out of nowhere?

Ah, head starting to hurt, must decipher werewolf craziness. I'll have to look back at everything tomorrow and see if I can make any heads or tails of this.

Crimson's death really bugs me, i don't get it

We had our asses kicked at bowling too, all in all not a good day.

I knew all of you were dying to know how it went :D

The only other possibility I see is they somehow thought Crimson was the seer which would mean of course Mau is a wolf. Very odd night kill choice.

There's not. I saw Crimson in thread and picked him out of the people there. I picked him because he usually is not an early kill, nor is he often one of the most active in games.

While it's possible I am a wolf, this theory makes no sense. I wouldn't go out of my way as a wolf to get rid of a vanilla crimsonfox.

I do think if Mau turns up wolf that does make me look not so good with his decision not to scan me night 1. That said, I am not convinced Mau is 100% guilty yet. I'd like to see his scan result and either way, I will be giving him one more time as there is no reason to lynch him at this point.

This is an awful vote. If Mau is lying, we will find out. We're not in a dire situation here as we currently stand either 14-3 or 13-4. Let's not do the wolves a favor in the event he is the seer.

You must be a wolf then

I think there is a good chance Mau is a wolf and they figured Crimson was the seer. It's really the only logical explanation I can think of for them not killing Lathum.

Can Zinto and I still PM?

This should be an interesting weekend, I hope we continue to get some discussion.

While I agree, and pointed out, that Mau being a fake seer is one explanation for CF's death, it's certainly not the only one. Wolves make blunders sometimes, and we shouldn't turn that to their favor by going paranoid. Maybe they simply made a poor night kill choice. Or maybe they did the old wolf trick of doing something strange to make us paranoid.

Okay, time to break this out...

I am a vanilla villager with a minor role that allows me to sneak around behind the scenes two times with the possibility of a third (depending on the amazing race portion of the game... I would have to make it to the top 5 to get an additional roll of film). The description given to me likened it to me being "Paparazzi", in that I can catch discriminating evidence on someone.

Once Lathum brought out that he was the Body Guard, I thought it was a perfect opportunity to take on the "Seer" role to bring the heat on me since it was somewhat assumed that's what I meant by what I said day 1. I wanted to try luring the wolves into trying to kill me last night, so I could take pictures of Lathum, hoping I would catch the moles in action. Obviously I came up empty handed last night. But one thing for sure, it DEFINITELY gave the impression that he IS the bodyguard. And from the limited detail, it almost sounded like he may have protected himself again last night..

What this means going forward?

I have one more roll of film to snap a few pictures at night unless I get to the top 5.

Chief Rum is not cleared.

Lathum is cleared as our bodyguard.

I see nothing in the rules even hinting there may be unlisted roles.

Vote Mauboy

Also, even a minor role means you're not a vanilla villager.

Seems pretty obvious now that you were hoping for a real seer reveal and now that you know you won't get it are trying something else. I was going to advocate not lynching you for one more day, so not sure why you didn't just stick with the seer story for now as a wolf.

Yeah, I haven't even finished reading this, but I'm not buying it. I thought killing CF was either a red herring for us, or a move by a newer or rustier wolf. It's a bit too obvious for some of our veteran moves who are always pulling the "but you know that I know that I know that you put the poison in that cup." I can buy Mauboy pulling the trigger on CF, and then freaking out when we saw what he was up to.

VOTE MAUBOY1

This makes for a real interesting chance to look back at day 1 votes now.

I don't buy this at all, many holes. For one, nothing in the rules about other roles. Second, I would call a role like this anything but minor, it would actually be pretty powerful. Third, a villager acting n the villages best interest wouldn't reveal as seer for fear of the actual seer coming out.

Also, I can't guard the same person on consecutive nights. I obviously guarded myself N1 and you last night.

I think you realize once you come up alive tomorrow morning you are toast so you are making a fake reveal.

dola- another possibility for no n1 kill is the wolves have to send in an order which wolf will do the kill and it was supposed to be MartinD N1.

It doesn't say you can't guard yourself twice in a row.. regardless, it was not that detailed. Essentially, it said you were hunkered down, preparing for something that never happened.

This explains Night 1, obviously the wolves don't hit the fake seer, they hit Lathum. And then it's in their best interest not to off the bodyguard since A) he's guarding the fake seer, and B) once he's dead they have no excuse not to kill the fake seer.

That's true, I didn't consider that possibility. I was trying to think of a reason why Martin getting lynched would impede their plan, but should have thought of that.

Oh forget my last post, I just realized you weren't revealed at that point Lathum. I guess the above, or a simple mix up is the answer still.

Sorry that I haven't been paying much attention in this game, but Lathum, when did you reveal as the BG? That was after mau revealed as the seer, right? But it sounds like he was saying he revealed as the seer after you revealed as the BG?

Well, this is interesting, here's what I have for hte Day vote order (the ending might not be complete but I'm looking at earlier in the day)

Autumn votes JAG
PF votes mauboy
lathum votes chief
mauboy votes chief (2)
danny votes jag (2)
jag votes autumn
bhlloy votes mauboy (2)
martin d votes mauboy (3)
chief rum votes mauboy (4)
mckerney votes mauboy (5)
chief unvotes mauboy (4)
danny unvotes jag
danny votes ntndeacon
jackal votes ntndeacon (2)
hoopsguy votes ntndeacon (3)
zinto votes chief rum (3)
ntndeacon votes chief (4)
pass votes ntn (4)
chief votes ntn (5)
cF votes mauboy (5)
ntn unvotes chief (3)
ntn votes mauboy (6)
darth votes mauboy (7)
cougar votes mauboy (8)
mauboy unvotes chief (2)
mauboy votes ntn (6)
golden eagle votes ntn (7)
saldana votes ntn (8)
lathum unvotes chief (1)
lathum votes ntn (8)
chief unvotes ntn (7)
chief votes mauboy (9)
autumn unvotes jag (0)
autumn votes mauboy (10)
ntn unvotes mau (9)
ntn votes jag (1)
danny unvote ntn (6)
danny votes CF
mau unvotes ntn (5)
mau votes crimson
chief unvotes mau
chief votes jag
autumn unvotes mauboy1
autumn votes JAG
autumn votes JAG

The earlier unvote of Mauboy looked bad for Chief, though his later vote of him looks good. I'll have to go back and see the context of those.

I revealed after Mau, following the wolves trying to kill me N1

That would be way overpowered and not the case. I PMed EF about this when I read my role description for clarification.

Incorrect, I revealed well after you did. Well into the next morning as a matter of fact.

Lathum revealed as the body guard after day ones night actions were processed. Mauboy dropped hints that made people believe he was the seer during the day one voting while he was in the lead. First he said he'd revel his role in half an hour, then said, "If only I could see the future," which made people think he was the seer. Lathum claimed the body guard role a few hours after mauboy dropped hints about being the seer, but it wasn't until the next morning that mauboy actually claimed to be the seer saying he'd scanned Chief Rum.

So it's technically true that he made an actual claim to be the seer after Lathum's body guard reveal, he dropped hints and let people run with the idea a few hours before.

For people looking it over, my vote on Mauboy, the 10th, is right about when he "revealed" as I cast it after asking him to give more specifics (not having caught his seer hint).

cmon Mau...

I see interesting things in the vote, but don't want to point them all out at this point. I'd rather watch and see how people react to the new situation. It would be nice if the real seer had scanned NTN so at some point we could see that whole situation clearly. Obviously Chief is a good target for a scan as well.

Honestly, with some of the things I've seen, I'm leaning toward the likelihood that the wolves are made up of newer more inexperienced / less active players.