Thanks I had missed that. I'd lean towards everyone having a role as well as we haven't seen anyone who hasn't yet - but if there are a couple that don't, that's a very nice play for the wolves to make. Just something to bear in the back of my mind I guess moving forward.

Hi just popping in. I feel much calmer about things today and I'm on my way to working things out here at home. I have a tendency to be a bit of a drama queen.

bhlloy - yes the wolves know which roles (if any) aren't in the game. Passa mentions it specifically. Again the easiest way for this to be cleared up would be for someone to come out and say that they don't have a listed role or that they are vanilla. If anyone does that then it's obvious that all the roles aren't in the game and mckerney's reveal holds little value. Neither does the fact that claims to have passed on the canoli to JAG - notice that, unlike CrimsonFox, he made no mention of having it on day two.

If you look solely at voting records I agree that mckerney has the worst set out there. I think he's a (and, possibly, the) wolf but I have very little faith in my own judgement at this stage.

I think I would have been the natural target for bhlloy and/or Autumn to pick if they wanted to defend DV as wolves. The only reason I can think of why they would do that as wolves is if they suspected I was the duke and were wary about voting for me in case I duked it to the next candidate, which would have been DV. Dunno if I've given any sign that I'm the duke (other than visiting the "Duke101" thread). Or if they were saving me as the target for today's vote.

I agree if such information comes out then we have to revaluate things. But we're here on D4 with 7 of 7 dead people with confirmed roles, you and mckerney with additional reveals. Until we have data to conflict that idea, I think we need to accept it.

It also makes me feel more warm and fuzzy that two of my most untrusted at this point have questioned mckerney on consecutive days (Autumn D3, bhlloy D4). As to why they didn't vote you, maybe the wolves have seen something in tyke's posts that make them want to get rid of him as he's attracted a lot of wolf votes or perhaps they thought they could get more traction voting him than you despite being a vote to the minus.

Looking through how day two went down near deadline again I'm going to

vote mckerney

In retrospect he practically asks Autumn to tell him to move off of Jeff. Autumn doesn't really, but he moves anyway and says it's because he's trusting Autumn that he is moving. If we don't lynch him then I say the seer should scan him tonight. We lynch him, worse case scenario, we lynch a vanilla villager.

If mckerney is a wolf I suspect the canoli got random sent to a wolf after day one. McKerney knows a wolf handed the canoli to Lathum - Lathum got whacked and, by a complete fluke, it randomed to JAG. Mckerney buys trust by claiming to send it to JAG.

If no-one has claimed to be vanilla or an unlisted role close to deadline I'll likely shift my vote to the leading vote-winner at the time.

No, I will move it.

With all due respect this would be the dumbest wolf play out there. With max 4 wolves and DV already on tyke jumping on narcizo was the only play that could have saved DV. I don't know why it wasn't at least attempted but there were valid reasons for voting tyke yesterday.

Disagree. DV's vote on Tyke wasn't going to change, mckerney and I might have changed our votes.

I've been trying to actually get on the board for over an hour w/ this stupid database error. Before I get blocked again, going to put the vote out there I planned on last night then I'm going to catch up on the discussion later last night/today. My thoughts when I last looked at the thread was either Autumn or bhlloy, but I'm leaning towards bhlloy currently.

vote bhlloy

Yeah the website being down was a pain in the butt.

I haven't been able to load the site all morning. I'll try to catch up, but there's a lot of reading here.

I don't have the time to do a lot of analysis right now. Regarding the Tyke vote, I have to disagree that voting him somehow paints me poorly. I don't think that there's any doubt that with Darth having the lead most of the day, a wolf considers him dead and gets in on the vote. Especially with votes that count double, they can't risk trying to make the vote close and having it go to Darth anyway. If I was bad i would have switched to Darth early, as soon as I saw the writing on the wall. or if I'm desperate to save him I follow JAG, a player with a lot of trust and vote Narcizo. I know in this game we get paranoid, but my vote isn't any different than a lot of other people who didn't vote Darth because they weren't sure of him or didn't want to pile on.

I suspected McKerney earlier for the reason Narcizo pointed out above, his vote "following" me. But it seems clear all roles are in the game, so he's a poor vote right now.

I tried to post this about an hour ago. Obviously connection problems are bad. I don't know if it will go through this time, but it will be a while before I can manage to look at things enough to vote.

Wow... almost four hours from the time I initially got bumped out with the Database Error until I could successfully log back in...

Thoughts on deadline, given that we were down for so long? Keep it, make it later tonight, or same time tomorrow?

I think claiming to have passed the canoli would have been too much of a risk for the wolves. They would have to know that whoever received the canoli on day one received it randomly and if it's passed randomly whoever got it doesn't know who it was given to, otherwise Clemenza could come out and say that they were never given it. That seems like way too big a risk for someone to make the claim as anything other than a late desperation ploy to avoid a lynching. Second-of-ly, if I were a wolf and one of us had the canoli I would've made damn sure that it was passed around to each other until we had the gun and could make a night kill without suspicion. I wouldn't have advised giving it to the villager for the exact reason of how it was used yesterday.

Yeah, that sucked. Seems to get worse every single day for the last week or so.

I'm around but don't have much else to add. It seems that public opinion is pretty much set against Autumn and I for our votes on tyke which is somewhat ridiculous, but so be it.

The only lead I have is McKerney but I'm not ready to vote him unless it's shown that there's a couple of vanilla villagers out there. If not him, there's a couple of wolves who have put very good votes on wolves and I'm at a dead end.

My vote would be to keep it or make it later tonight. Same time tomorrow is just overkill IMO.

I'm fine with whatever others want, if you twist my arm I'f say tack on a couple hrs and do a 22 hr day tomorrow unless this continues.

Yeah if it works for Pass I'd say bumping it back an hour or two would work, as long as the site stays up.

Don't want to make it too late, I know we'll all be out drinking green beer

As you said, if we lynch me now we're only lynching a vanilla villager. I was hoping to avoid it at all costs yesterday, but after getting two wolves and losing no one yesterday I'm not worried about it too much. We'll still in good shape and we don't lost much with me. Especially with my inability to vote for a wolf so far. :p

As far as scans, I'd be surprised if I hadn't been already, and if not expect to be scanned tonight if I'm still around.

Vote bhlloy

At this point, I think he's the more suspicious of he and Autumn. If Autumn is a villager, maybe bhlloy was hoping for a save by pushing tyke to 3 and making it 4-3.

Having major issues with the site today. Probably my only chance to post with little time and on phone.

I was thinking either bhlloy or mckerney. Autumn may be another to look at when I get a chance, if I get a chance to look over the thread later. Time and site issues are not helping.

vote bhlloy

As far as the schedule, pushing it a couple of hours isn't going to buy me so much. I'm afraid if we leave it at 3PM eastern, our chances of more discussion (especially in light of the analysis post-D3) may be lost and easily explained away to buy another day.

So I'm cool with what the group wants, but personally... I'd like to see it delayed a day. I know... it's gonna push us into the weekend. It's the lessor of two evils for me.

Hm, seems to be a bit of a runaway on bhlloy. I'd like to examine some other people but I suppose he isn't a bad choice.

Now as for my vote. I had a post this morning that got lost where I quoted 4 or 5 of Autumns posts where I felt he was doing a pretty good job of pinging me, and only reluctantly gave me props. I haven't been convinced his voting history from D2+D3 has been explained away successfully. I agree that Autumn and Bhlloy are my two leading candidates. But as of now, I actually think I'm leaning towards Autumn.

I was hoping to get another day before doing this... but it's clearly a runaway.

This is completely stupid based on a solid vote yesterday, but never mind. Forcing me to do this only hurts the village FFS.

I'm the damn seer...

Night 1: Narcizo (good)
Night 2: Lathum (traitor)
Night 3: Tyketime (good)

Going to scan mckerney tonight unless anybody has a better idea. Would appreciate the BG protection for at least one night so we can at least put that theory to bed.

By the way, here is my unofficial D4 vote count:

Mckerney 2 -- MartinD (880), Narcizo (905)
Autumn 1 -- CrimsonFox (884)
Bhlloy 3 -- J23 (909), JAG (922), EF (923)

Oh... well this certainly makes my vote a little easier. Note I am satisfied with my vote, and placing it now in case connection troubles return:

VOTE AUTUMN

If bholly is clean then Autumn looks like the best move for today.

Vote Autumn

FWIW I don't think Autumn is a wolf either. His logic has generally been solid and he's just been unlucky as far as I can see. But I don't see anything else obvious out there.

For the people voting or thinking of voting for mckerney, explain to me how this is a good percentage play. First, you have to assume there were six wolves or all roles are not in the game, both of which are assumptions without much evidence at this point. So let's say there were six wolves. Of the three remaining wolves, he can only be the last good/traitor role to be a wolf. For all the other unknowns, there are three possible different wolves they could be. Aside from voting Narcizo, it seems like one of the worst percentage plays to make no matter his voting history. Last game this same scenario (roughly) went down for GE. He had a terrible vote history, but he only could've been one of the two remaining wolves. The village played the percentages and ended up fully clearing him as a result. I don't mind him as a candidate down the road after we nail the other two pure traitor roles if the game isn't over then, but voting him seems pretty poor for today.

If Autumn isn't a wolf though that that would likely mean there were wolf votes on DV yesterday, which doesn't make much sense to me.

I still find it hard to believe Autumn would for the same person vote right after Lathum if they were both wolves, though he did switch his vote later in the day if I remember correctly.

Unless there's a counter we've got to take bhlloy's word for this.

Does anyone have an updated vote chart with day three included?

unvote Bhlloy

As far as the deadline goes, I'm ok with whatever you want to do w/ it Pass.

bhlloy, not a bad reveal really, no need to be upset. Confirmation Tyke is good is a huge positive to say nothing of taking you out of the running. The BG is still out there so you should be able to get another scan off.

Unvote bhlloy

Not sure about going Autumn yet, I'd like to take a look at things with the new info.

I think he's upset he was forced to reveal, is all. At this point he had to, it was looking like a runaway.

I think there has to be at least one wolf on DV. It buys some short term trust for any wolf who votes on him, and DV was not able to be active and was probably not helping the wolves out very much other then being an extra vote.

But the wolves would've had a strong chance of hitting the seer tonight by narrowing down roles so all in all it was a good thing to come out, even if it just cleared tyke for us.

Nothing makes sense about yesterday from a wolf perspective. The only logical thing I keep coming back to is they screwed up or somebody missed a deadline. In that case there could be an early vote on DV that somebody didn't take off in time, but I think Jackal and EF have pretty good levels of trust. So... I don't know what to take from it.

I think often, the best place for a wolf to hide a vote on another wolf is the first vote on that person. It doesn't put the other wolf in great danger, like a later vote would, and if the wolf gets revealed at some point, the person who put in that first vote can point to it for trust later. Which leads me to taking a closer look at EF.

I think we'll keep the deadline the same. Consistency and all that.

Yeah, I'm calming down a bit now lol. Not a bad thing, I do wish I'd have got one more day in but that could have been a risky play.

Really looking for opinions on tonight's scan if I can get it in. McKerney is the most intriguing question in my mind but might not be the best percentage play.

Does my post #877 work for you?

Thanks I don't know how I missed that

Lathum votes tyketime 153 (1) (McK 2, Saldana 1, Chief 1, Tyke 1)
Autumn votes tyketime 160 (2) (McK 2, Tyke 2, Saldana 1, Chief 1)
.
autumn unvotes tyketime 184 (3)
autumn votes mckerney 185 (2) (Tyke 3, Mauboy 3, McK 2, Saldana 1, Chief 1)

Mckerney isn't a bad choice, though it seems like the other wolves would most likely be the two listed wolves left, and we seem to believe his reveal. If we don't end up lynching Autumn, that's certainly a good choice.

After that you'd have to choose between a bunch of us with at least one vote for a wolf - me, EF, Martin, Zinto.

And we know that at least four of those candidates are villagers, save for mckerney who's allegiance we don't know.

I'll probably have some suggestions for a scan, but I wouldn't reveal in thread who you're scanning.