Assuming there are 3 US (former) military captured, I think the best we can do is tell Putin to treat them like prisoners of war or else we'll escalate how we see fit.

We shouldn't give any concessions (or at least not right now) like not shipping weapons to Ukraine to get them back. Pretty sure they knew the risks and there'll likely be others as this goes on and on and on.

Pretty amazing this is still going on with no end in sight.

There's news blurbs on how Russia is winning the fight in the East, Ukraine needs more weapons etc. My guess is Russia will own a part of Ukraine and dig in. They didn't accomplish their main objective of controlling all of Ukraine but they're going to get their secondary objective of controlling the Eastern part.

I think it will end as a win/lose for Russia. They will expand and take complete control of the east. They will have also successfully damaged Ukraine that will take a generation to recover from. But they will fail in removing the Ukraine government to install a puppet, and will have completely tarnished their reputation as a fighting force. Their military will come out majorly depleted, and there will be no fear of further expansion as NATO will have them completely surrounded and outgunned. It will be a "victory", but will end Putin's dream of a Greater Russia.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

Optimism for sure. This depends on Ukraine accepting change, and Russia deciding it's ok with it's gains. Because if both of those things don't happen something totally different is going to happen here. The longer this goes on, the closer we get to a "Lusitania Moment". If not for the US, from another country in the region. If Belarus enters the war on a new front, or Moldova comes under attack, who knows where it's going to go?

If Ukraine can't counterattack and take back their eastern territories, then what Ukraine wants is irrelevant.

I think this is true.

Tell that to Ukraine. You're looking at it from a rational outside view, not from the inside and under attack.

Zelensky probably knows the situation better than anyone. Russians aren't going to the leave the territory unless they're forced out or some kind of negotiations take place that gives Russia something they want, for example the dropping of sanctions or something.

The solution is easy...

Write an essay question in 25 words of less...

"I hate Russia/Ukraine because _____"

best answer wins the war.

Mine:

Nice to know some capitalism + patriotism is still alive in Ukraine

Ukrainians Will Write Your Message on Munitions Aimed at Russians for Donations

2 Harpoons hitting the Russian tug boat.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status...zAn0nRDVEkhAwA

If zombie movies and TV shows have taught us anything, it's that you always double tap.

Lithuania blocking support trains to the Russian naval base in Kalingrad might be the development that pulls NATO into this war. They are just doing what the EU agreed to with their sanctions, but it still very brave for such a small country.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

Was at Pearl Harbor last weekend and it's striking just how alike the situations are. Japan and the ABCD sanctions (ABCD line - Wikipedia) sound way too similar to what is going on with Moscow and the West now. From the "west" uniting against an "eastern" foe to cutting off raw materials and oil in response to that foe's invasion to the widespread freezing of bank assets to Japan's belief that the west had no business dictating what they do in their part of the world. And this ultimately backed Japan into a corner where they felt that Pearl Harbor was their only option

SI

We were there the Dec before Covid hit. Pearl Harbor was definitely sobering.

Enjoyed walking through that submarine. Can't believe they lived in such cramped quarters. Today's nuclear submarines must be a mansion by comparison.

Snopes said it did do a U-turn but it didn't really return to sender (the angle is misleading). Regardless, pretty amazing footage.

Did Video Show Russian Missile 'Boomerang' in Ukraine, Striking Troops Who Launched It? | Snopes.com
https://twitter.com/i/status/1540214406549749766

Biden in Europe for the G7 summit. Supposedly to also beef up, reinforce support for Ukraine.

Does look like this will drag on and the Russians will retain some control of eastern Ukraine. I'm guessing there really is war weariness (e.g. Civ) right now but it's across the board with Ukraine, western allies, and also Russia. Thinking that Russia will soon hunker down on territories it owns and declare victory.

Interesting:

Arestovich last night said when asked why we are suddenly shooting down so many more Russian cruise missles..
"We have something new".

Like 80% now. Before 15%. https://t.co/AHVa7Upigx

— Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) July 6, 2022

Good to see US/NATO weapons (and assume tactics) being field tested.

Good news conference by Pentagon. Essentially stating we are continuing to support Ukraine with weapons. HIMARs were stressed quite a bit.

Also ...

lock

I'm going to bet the Ukrainians can continue fighting just as long as the western allies continue to provide support. I doubt Putin can "defeat" Ukraine. I think he'll have to declare victory and consolidate his gains in eastern Ukraine ... essentially stalemate and rebuild for next time.

HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) is the hot topic right now.

Apparently our US supplied HIMARS has been used effectively to blow up Russian ammo dumps far behind the front lines.

War creep...I'm telling you guys, our Lusitania moment is coming.

Agreed


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I've said this before but there is no way Biden can send billions of dollars in aid and still have Russia win. He's in too deep right now.

I'm not going to say he made the wrong call but it's going to be hard to spend billions of dollars and have nothing to show for it.

I don't think it's a win/lose sort of moment. There are certain things that you spend money on because you have no other option. Things you spend money on that you might not see the return, or even recognize the return when you get it. This is one of those things, imo.

It is like a slow burn with incrementally more and more US & allied involvement - logistics, weaponry, intelligence, training (apparently UK is openly doing a lot of that now).

I really want to believe Ukrainians have the will and determination to continue the fight with western assistance. But can also see where Ukraine loses the war of attrition (of their experienced and effective troops) which will cause a collapse of their defenses. But hey, I can see that happening to Russia also.

5 months into this ...

I can guarantee you that Republicans will not let the country see it that way. If Ukraine falls then they'll put the blame squarely on Biden. They'll say he squandered billions of military aid and it's just more proof that Biden doesn't know what he's doing.

Oh no doubt. They would say the sky was red if it would help them get votes.

IMO if Ukraine falls, then yeah, Biden gets the blame in the US.

If Ukraine fell in 4-8 weeks back in Feb, then Biden could easily say that Russia overwhelmed Ukraine, or Ukrainians not willing to fight.

We are 5 months in. The best and brightest western logistics, intelligence etc. are now coordinating with Ukraine etc. Congress has an open checkbook for military supplies. We probably have some special forces boots on the ground advising etc.

If we cannot win or stalemate this fight, the buck stops with Biden and his selection/approval of military advisors.

We've wasted more money making any number of things worse instead of better for decades, the only way this would be different is if you believe there's THAT strong a differentiation made with foreign vs domestic spending.

It's only taxpayer money, they'll just print more.

Great news. Hope it keeps. Nice win for Turkey also as essentially the cop.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/22/europ...ntl/index.html

Good news if you like hummus.

I don't trust the Russians, but I'm unsure what their angle is here.

They will create some mythical transgression (Grain ships held cannabis cartridges intended for smuggling to Britney Griner) so they had no recourse but to sink the ships, bomb the trucking convoys and take out two day cares and a movie theater as well.

Supposedly some 1K+ Russians have been surrounded and somewhat confirmed by Ukraine government. All the news have been one sided so hard to really understand if this is "real" or the ramifications.

Would be nice if the Pentagon weighed in with weekly/bi-weekly briefings (or maybe they do but just not reported by MSM?) and let us know things on the ground (in addition to what military weapons & supplies we are sending over there). But I guess, understandably, they don't.

The inevitable behind-the-scenes book by some General will be interesting reading.

Well

Russia hits Ukraine's Black Sea port in wake of grain deal

I'm not sure how pissing off Turkey helps the Russians, but this was certainly expected, if not expected so soon after the agreement.

Starting to become real money now at $8.2B but still a good deal to better understand Russian tactics, weapons, rally the allies and bring us closer together, no US military lives lost (that we know of), keep Ukraine semi-independent, and ultimately make Russia a pariah for the next X years.

(It'll probably boost US weapons sales also with allies and frenemies).

I didn't find a summary of what EU/Nato $ are but would like to know. Because they've been in the news the most, I assume US, UK, Poland, Germany are the big contributors.

U.S. to send Ukraine additional $270 million in military aid

I could see Europe aggressively accelerate their war stance if the overall economy starts to falter. Fuckery with the global food supply and an energy crisis could pull the entire region in eventually. As the simple desperation for something different loosens those anti-war constraints when you have a common enemy to point it against.

Pretty cool.


https://youtu.be/FbMyLDJ0JsA

My guess is EU will have a harder time than the US in the next several months economically and through winter.

Surprised the natural gas wasn't cut off even earlier but I'm sure Russia had their strategic interest/timing in mind. Their enemies have increased type & quantity of military weapons to Ukraine, and there is no doubt this is a war by proxy ... effectively Russia is at war with the western allies.

US has a lot of natural gas. It would be great if we can supply the EU but suspect logistics & transportation makes that a limited option in the near future.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/27/puti...rationing.html

Supposedly a switchblade drone attack vs Russians.

I guess it accomplished it's mission but I'm somewhat disappointed by the blast, seem smaller than I would have thought. But I clearly know nothing here.

https://youtu.be/U5b6Ir_jVQg

Probably a nothing burger considering the source ...

This would be a horrendous escalation but the old Avalon Hill grognard (and Red Dawn(s) fan) in me would find this absolutely fascinating to see how it plays out.

https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/ne...8ad2d9fa38dff0

Meanwhile, Ukraine has fired missiles at a Russian air base 200 km into Crimea following recent attacks on anti-air batteries. Or, at least, that's the speculation. Russia claims they were blowing stuff up on their own base.





SI

Nice if true. Hopefully there are more military targets in Crimea they can target.

Funny stuff.


If I was a murderer rotting away in a Russian jail, this would be very appealing to me.

Murderers released from some of the worst prisons in the world, given 2 weeks training, and sent into combat. What's the worst that could happen.

Maybe all the raping and murdering of citizens is actually a "feature" and not a "bug" with this invasion.

FWIW, a reddit sub with pics & videos from both Ukrainian and Russian POV.

Ukraine/Russia War Report

The Wagner group HQ in the Luhansk region was destroyed. Ukraine was able to identify where the HQ was based on a published pic of operators/mercenaries standing close/in front of it and ... there was a sign with the address visible in the pic.

Pics show the building demolished but no idea on casualties. Not a lot of OpSec there.


Makes me wonder if there are US Blackwater-like mercenaries in Ukraine, secretly "funded" in a round about way by US government. I'm going to guess yes.

Me, too. Or something like that.