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muns 08-26-2008 07:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud (Post 1816454)
I'm putting up a new file for Toronto's new owner kaosfere No changes and no exports have been taken, the only thing I did was add him as a user and assign him. With free agency being as awesome as it will be this year, I didn't think it was fair if he's otherwise set up to leave him out.

Just for the record.

Welcome him to the league, too.


Welcome to the league Kasosfere!!!! You have a nice rebuild job in front of you that should be some fun. Glad to have you around

Cringer 08-26-2008 07:56 PM

And...

kaosfere

Welcome
to the league. Enjoy the whirlwind experience of speed OOTP.

Commo_Soldier 08-26-2008 08:04 PM

It is probably for the best as I would have been really tied to Lang, Yamazaki and Higman with a total of 45+ of my 65 million going to those three.

Young Drachma 08-26-2008 08:08 PM

FOOL Win Windows, 1972 season
 
I created some new baseball statistics called VOCL and Win Window. The idea was to find some measure to assess where a team was in relation to the 'breakthrough' level of success needed to compete for a championship. In FOOL, the threshold is very high because only two teams make the playoffs. In leagues with longer players, the threshold is lower. But VOCL isn't intended to find out who the best team is or who will in the playoffs.

It's only purpose is to assess for you how "close" you are to championship level.

A positive Win Window indicates that you're a contender, the closer to 1.000 you are, the more likely you are to be in your win window.

I calculated them for FOOL based on this past season's stats

Code:

Team                        BVORP        PVORP        VOCL        WD        GMS        WW
Valdosta Peanuts        456        164.7        220.7        58        154        1.810
Colorado Rancheros        196        288.1        84.1        38        154        0.793
Boston Settlers                236.1        209.4        45.5        6        154        0.334
Brooklyn Brownstones        324.5        103.6        28.1        14        154        0.273
Rio Grande Roadrunners        222        158.1        -19.9        6        154        -0.090
Atlanta Firecrackers        145.2        211.5        -43.3        18        154        -0.164
Quad City Thunderstorms        225.9        115.7        -58.4        6        154        -0.340
Compton Brothers        152.1        166.5        -81.4        12        154        -0.451
Ann Arbor Wolverines        168.4        134.8        -96.8        -2        154        -0.642
Baltimore Terrapins        140.2        98.4        -161.4        -20        154        -1.178
Toronto Atlantics        150.1        75        -174.9        -14        154        -1.227
New York Highlanders        78.6        109.8        -211.6        -16        154        -1.478
Hartford Harpooners        -5.7        169.3        -236.4        -6        154        -1.574
El Paso Alligators        78.4        72.9        -248.7        -32        154        -1.823
Columbus Crusaders        68.6        60.5        -270.9        -22        154        -1.902
Texas Copperheads        58.1        23.9        -318        -46        154        -2.364


If you're interested in formulas, VOCL (Value Over Championship Level) is
Quote:

(Team Batting VORP + Team Pitching VORP) - 400 = VOCL

For Win Window, the formula is
Quote:

VOCL + Win Differential (W - L) / Number of Games in the season = Win Window

TurnerONU22 08-26-2008 08:11 PM

I hope I catch a break tonight with the signings, as the natives in Ohio are getting a little restless, watching such horrible baseball. If I don't sign anybody tonight, I might have a few guys that I will be willing to trade. So, if you're interested in any of the older (about 26 and up) Crusader players, keep an eye out to see if I grab any good players tonight.

At least that's how I feel right now, who knows how I feel tomorrow?

Good luck to everyone (except that team Up North)!

Commo_Soldier 08-26-2008 08:11 PM

Welcome Kaosfere, you joined on the perfect day. Just a tip on that I like to follow in FA if you really like a player it is maybe best to go big since you only have a one-time offer. Goodluck

graygoose12 08-26-2008 08:17 PM

Welcome Kaosfere.

I somewhat second the "go big" in FA attitude. But also remember the salary cap of $65 is pretty low, so you have to watch out for that too.

But like Commo Soldier said, you basically have one shot for FA offers.

Cringer 08-26-2008 08:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud (Post 1816474)
I created some new baseball statistics called VOCL and Win Window. The idea was to find some measure to assess where a team was in relation to the 'breakthrough' level of success needed to compete for a championship. In FOOL, the threshold is very high because only two teams make the playoffs. In leagues with longer players, the threshold is lower. But VOCL isn't intended to find out who the best team is or who will in the playoffs.

It's only purpose is to assess for you how "close" you are to championship level.

A positive Win Window indicates that you're a contender, the closer to 1.000 you are, the more likely you are to be in your win window.

I calculated them for FOOL based on this past season's stats

Code:

Team            BVORP    PVORP    VOCL    WD    GMS    WW
Valdosta Peanuts    456    164.7    220.7    58    154    1.810
Colorado Rancheros    196    288.1    84.1    38    154    0.793
Boston Settlers        236.1    209.4    45.5    6    154    0.334
Brooklyn Brownstones    324.5    103.6    28.1    14    154    0.273
Rio Grande Roadrunners    222    158.1    -19.9    6    154    -0.090
Atlanta Firecrackers    145.2    211.5    -43.3    18    154    -0.164
Quad City Thunderstorms    225.9    115.7    -58.4    6    154    -0.340
Compton Brothers    152.1    166.5    -81.4    12    154    -0.451
Ann Arbor Wolverines    168.4    134.8    -96.8    -2    154    -0.642
Baltimore Terrapins    140.2    98.4    -161.4    -20    154    -1.178
Toronto Atlantics    150.1    75    -174.9    -14    154    -1.227
New York Highlanders    78.6    109.8    -211.6    -16    154    -1.478
Hartford Harpooners    -5.7    169.3    -236.4    -6    154    -1.574
El Paso Alligators    78.4    72.9    -248.7    -32    154    -1.823
Columbus Crusaders    68.6    60.5    -270.9    -22    154    -1.902
Texas Copperheads    58.1    23.9    -318    -46    154    -2.364


If you're interested in formulas, VOCL (Value Over Championship Level) is

For Win Window, the formula is


Pretty cool. And I guess it's a good thing I am not in 4th at least. :p

Alan T 08-26-2008 08:51 PM

Welcome Kaos!

muns 08-26-2008 08:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud (Post 1816474)
I created some new baseball statistics called VOCL and Win Window. The idea was to find some measure to assess where a team was in relation to the 'breakthrough' level of success needed to compete for a championship. In FOOL, the threshold is very high because only two teams make the playoffs. In leagues with longer players, the threshold is lower. But VOCL isn't intended to find out who the best team is or who will in the playoffs.

It's only purpose is to assess for you how "close" you are to championship level.

A positive Win Window indicates that you're a contender, the closer to 1.000 you are, the more likely you are to be in your win window.

I calculated them for FOOL based on this past season's stats

Code:

Team                        BVORP        PVORP        VOCL        WD        GMS        WW
Valdosta Peanuts        456        164.7        220.7        58        154        1.810
Colorado Rancheros        196        288.1        84.1        38        154        0.793
Boston Settlers                236.1        209.4        45.5        6        154        0.334
Brooklyn Brownstones        324.5        103.6        28.1        14        154        0.273
Rio Grande Roadrunners        222        158.1        -19.9        6        154        -0.090
Atlanta Firecrackers        145.2        211.5        -43.3        18        154        -0.164
Quad City Thunderstorms        225.9        115.7        -58.4        6        154        -0.340
Compton Brothers        152.1        166.5        -81.4        12        154        -0.451
Ann Arbor Wolverines        168.4        134.8        -96.8        -2        154        -0.642
Baltimore Terrapins        140.2        98.4        -161.4        -20        154        -1.178
Toronto Atlantics        150.1        75        -174.9        -14        154        -1.227
New York Highlanders        78.6        109.8        -211.6        -16        154        -1.478
Hartford Harpooners        -5.7        169.3        -236.4        -6        154        -1.574
El Paso Alligators        78.4        72.9        -248.7        -32        154        -1.823
Columbus Crusaders        68.6        60.5        -270.9        -22        154        -1.902
Texas Copperheads        58.1        23.9        -318        -46        154        -2.364


If you're interested in formulas, VOCL (Value Over Championship Level) is

For Win Window, the formula is


Thats pretty freaking cool. Looks like I still have lots of work to do.

kaosfere 08-26-2008 08:57 PM

Hi, everyone, and thanks for the welcome!

Just sent out my first export. Looking over my team, it looks like most of my big guns are on the downside of their careers, and it will be a few years until my young talent makes it out of single A. I put down a few big offers to see if I can get an immediate lift, but focused primarily on trying to pick up some go-getters who could be cheap stars by the time by young players are ready for their rookie year. :)

(Or could bomb totally, but them's the risks.)

Once the FA negotiations finish tonight, I'll look over what I have and might send out some trade feelers.

Nice to meet everyone. Here's to a good season!

Alan T 08-26-2008 08:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud (Post 1816474)
I created some new baseball statistics called VOCL and Win Window. The idea was to find some measure to assess where a team was in relation to the 'breakthrough' level of success needed to compete for a championship. In FOOL, the threshold is very high because only two teams make the playoffs. In leagues with longer players, the threshold is lower. But VOCL isn't intended to find out who the best team is or who will in the playoffs.

It's only purpose is to assess for you how "close" you are to championship level.

A positive Win Window indicates that you're a contender, the closer to 1.000 you are, the more likely you are to be in your win window.

I calculated them for FOOL based on this past season's stats

Code:

Team            BVORP    PVORP    VOCL    WD    GMS    WW
Valdosta Peanuts    456    164.7    220.7    58    154    1.810
Colorado Rancheros    196    288.1    84.1    38    154    0.793
Boston Settlers        236.1    209.4    45.5    6    154    0.334
Brooklyn Brownstones    324.5    103.6    28.1    14    154    0.273
Rio Grande Roadrunners    222    158.1    -19.9    6    154    -0.090
Atlanta Firecrackers    145.2    211.5    -43.3    18    154    -0.164
Quad City Thunderstorms    225.9    115.7    -58.4    6    154    -0.340
Compton Brothers    152.1    166.5    -81.4    12    154    -0.451
Ann Arbor Wolverines    168.4    134.8    -96.8    -2    154    -0.642
Baltimore Terrapins    140.2    98.4    -161.4    -20    154    -1.178
Toronto Atlantics    150.1    75    -174.9    -14    154    -1.227
New York Highlanders    78.6    109.8    -211.6    -16    154    -1.478
Hartford Harpooners    -5.7    169.3    -236.4    -6    154    -1.574
El Paso Alligators    78.4    72.9    -248.7    -32    154    -1.823
Columbus Crusaders    68.6    60.5    -270.9    -22    154    -1.902
Texas Copperheads    58.1    23.9    -318    -46    154    -2.364


If you're interested in formulas, VOCL (Value Over Championship Level) is

For Win Window, the formula is


So would you say that I am effectively within my "win window" right now? :cool:

Commo_Soldier 08-26-2008 09:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kaosfere (Post 1816519)
Nice to meet everyone. Here's to a good season!


And the good thing is if it is not a good season the next one only starts in about 48 hours.

Chief Rum 08-26-2008 09:48 PM

That is cool.

I will be even more interested to see how it looks after the teams are set for the new season (if that can be done).

Alan T 08-26-2008 09:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 1816553)
That is cool.

I will be even more interested to see how it looks after the teams are set for the new season (if that can be done).


It is based on that year's stats so it is more for retrospective then a prediction tool.

Alan T 08-26-2008 09:59 PM

Show time! Cmon DC, lets do it!

Young Drachma 08-26-2008 10:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T (Post 1816561)
Show time! Cmon DC, lets do it!


The woman is on the phone. Talking. But I'm ready. :)

Chief Rum 08-26-2008 10:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T (Post 1816554)
It is based on that year's stats so it is more for retrospective then a prediction tool.


Ah, but could not such a statistic be extrapolated for prediction purposes? Even if it loses some accuracy, it would be another fun little indicator for what to expect.

muns 08-26-2008 10:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T (Post 1816523)
So would you say that I am effectively within my "win window" right now? :cool:


Jack ass :D

Young Drachma 08-26-2008 10:10 PM

Dan Murphy signed a 1-year deal worth $3.55 million with Colorado

Pete McKeane signed to 1-year deal worth $1.02 million with Baltimore

Orlando Diaz signed a 1-year deal worth $335k with Brooklyn

Young Drachma 08-26-2008 10:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 1816570)
Ah, but could not such a statistic be extrapolated for prediction purposes? Even if it loses some accuracy, it would be another fun little indicator for what to expect.


It'd require statistical data that we can't get, sadly. I can, however, do a more crude measure that I'll detail later on.

Alan T 08-26-2008 10:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 1816570)
Ah, but could not such a statistic be extrapolated for prediction purposes? Even if it loses some accuracy, it would be another fun little indicator for what to expect.


You would have to predict VORP for players which might be a bit tough since even for top players, VORP can bounce around a decent amount season to season.

The way I would see this being used for prediction purposes would be at the end of the season, you are in a crossroads of wondering if you rebuild or retool to try to make another run at it. If your "Win Window" is pretty close to competing level, or you seem to be near the top, you might go one way with it, but if your team appeared to have overachieved, you might just throw in your towel and start a rebuild.

I guess the question would be if this stat that DC created actually has the ability to give this information, or if it is going to be a regurgitated Pythag. record in a different statistical format. I'd be personally interested to see this run for the 1969 season to see what it told us, as I was at a crossroads there and made what I would say is a good choice at the time.

Young Drachma 08-26-2008 10:14 PM

C Pedro Delgado signed a 3-year deal worth $3.61 with Colorado

MR Francisco Padilla signed worth $2.25 million over 3 years with Toronto

CF Noah Wakeling signed worth $10.8 million for 2 years with El Paso

3B Luis Marquez signed a 2-year deal worth $2 million with Colorado

SP Alonso Hernandez signed a 1-year deal worth $3 million with Hartford

muns 08-26-2008 10:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud (Post 1816578)
Dan Murphy signed a 1-year deal worth $3.55 million with Colorado

Pete McKeane signed to 1-year deal worth $1.02 million with Baltimore

Orlando Diaz signed a 1-year deal worth $335k with Brooklyn


2 nice cheap deals for Baltimore and Brooklyn.....

Chief you put other offers on other guys? Or did you cut people?

Alan T 08-26-2008 10:15 PM

Muns snipes one player I went after already!

Chief Rum 08-26-2008 10:16 PM

That's a three year deal to Murphy, right? ;)

I wasn't planning to pay him 65% of my remaining cap for this year.

graygoose12 08-26-2008 10:16 PM

I like the signing of Wakeling

muns 08-26-2008 10:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T (Post 1816590)
Muns snipes one player I went after already!


lol its the only guy I landed

Chief Rum 08-26-2008 10:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by muns (Post 1816589)
2 nice cheap deals for Baltimore and Brooklyn.....

Chief you put other offers on other guys? Or did you cut people?


I made a whole bunch of offers, but mostly low ball. I will probably have a ton of "R U kidding me with that offer" types of emails.

muns 08-26-2008 10:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 1816596)
I made a whole bunch of offers, but mostly low ball. I will probably have a ton of "R U kidding me with that offer" types of emails.


Your question to DC cleared up what I was thinking... Had me wondering over here, cause that didnt seem like you.... So im good now :)

graygoose12 08-26-2008 10:18 PM

I definitely made some offers that are very risky.

Chief Rum 08-26-2008 10:18 PM

All right, I signed Delgado. Alvarado is officially on the block if anyone is interested in a good offensive catcher who is surplus to requirements.

Young Drachma 08-26-2008 10:19 PM

CL Aaron Dailey signed a 2-year deal worth $14 million with Columbus

RF Fernando Garza signed a 4-year deal worth $9.74 million with New York

CL Mike McBride signed a 4-year deal worth $28.14 million with Atlanta

SP Sadaharu Kobayashi signed a 4-year deal worth $32.24 million with Atlanta

MR Robert Massey signed a 3-year deal worth $4.45 million with Brooklyn

RF Lawrence Wyatt signed a 3-year deal worth $28.35 million with Compton

SS Bob Bath signed a 5-year worth $40.475 million with Atlanta.

Chief Rum 08-26-2008 10:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by graygoose12 (Post 1816598)
I definitely made some offers that are very risky.


I made many offers for whom it would be risky for the players to accept. ;)

Alan T 08-26-2008 10:20 PM

Well Wyatt sure did hit the payday with Compton there.

Chief Rum 08-26-2008 10:20 PM

Wow, Bath actually got his money. I didn't think he would.

Chief Rum 08-26-2008 10:20 PM

Oh, and Firecracker money seems alive and well.

muns 08-26-2008 10:21 PM

Wow Atlanta is going nuts!!!! They are close team too... interesting

graygoose12 08-26-2008 10:22 PM

"2B" Harris lost all his abilities to play second at some point. I had to find his replacement. Bath plays good D and has some nice power.

graygoose12 08-26-2008 10:23 PM

I almost made a crazy offer for Higman. Now I am interested to see if he ends up signing for much less than I was going to offer.

muns 08-26-2008 10:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by graygoose12 (Post 1816607)
"2B" Harris lost all his abilities to play second at some point. I had to find his replacement. Bath plays good D and has some nice power.


Sigh........ that is horrible, that drives me nuts!!!! How the heck does a guy play for "X" amount of years at 2nd base and then no longer can play that position......

Alan T 08-26-2008 10:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by graygoose12 (Post 1816609)
I almost made a crazy offer for Higman. Now I am interested to see if he ends up signing for much less than I was going to offer.



That is something that I am waiting to see what happens as well.

Young Drachma 08-26-2008 10:24 PM

Steven Davis signed a 2-year deal worth $14.28 million with Texas

Juan Reyes signed a 4-year deal worth $48 million with Columbus

graygoose12 08-26-2008 10:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by muns (Post 1816610)
Sigh........ that is horrible, that drives me nuts!!!!


yeah I don't know how this is handled.

If I would have played him there next year would he have just been awful. I didn't want to risk that.

Alan T 08-26-2008 10:25 PM

Reyes hit big payday

muns 08-26-2008 10:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by graygoose12 (Post 1816609)
I almost made a crazy offer for Higman. Now I am interested to see if he ends up signing for much less than I was going to offer.


Havent had a flury of teams signing guys, so im assuming everyone made a high offer on him

graygoose12 08-26-2008 10:26 PM

That's all Davis got. Man, I was afraid he was going to get 10+ per year.

Alan T 08-26-2008 10:26 PM

It makes me sad seeing all of my players run off to other teams to become millionaires... doesn't anyone have any loyalty anymore???? :D

Young Drachma 08-26-2008 10:27 PM

Sorry for the delay...gf is talking to me.

graygoose12 08-26-2008 10:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by muns (Post 1816616)
Havent had a flury of teams signing guys, so im assuming everyone made a high offer on him


I considered offering close to $18-20 million per year.


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