Well, anguish resolved quickly. My target guy, a low-endurance but otherwise big-bars Guard, went at pick 20. We'll be fine.

Oh, and while I'm here in Austin, I'm getting a lot of pressure from the townsfolk to extend our contract with Zach Chritakes, our hard-hitting strong safety who sadly can't seem to figure out how to play zone coverage. I reckon I will do so, and make the local fans happy - he grew up in Dripping Springs, just a little ways out of town. I've been seeing a fair number of Ravens "39" jerseys being worn by local lesbians, I don't even know what to make of all that (is it some sort of sexual position?), but I'll take whatever demographic edge I can get. He wants $15/yr, I figure we'll settle around $11.

With our 2nd round pick, we grab WR Kirk Jacobs, a guy we target to complement our downfield targets (Stallings and Vukmir, BPR 100 and 94, respectively). Right now, we have WR Larry Woodworth in this role - he's nothing too special, but a 71 GD and 67 3rdD guy. But Woodworth has an 8 in courage, and a void in both route running and adjusting to ball.

So...if WR Jacobs develops the way we want, he will become the guy we work underneath for something like 60-80 targets, hopefully settling in at 8-9 yards per target, meaning maybe 600 yards. He's also got special teams skills to contribute there (but not a max/gunner type). Low endurance, not a WR1, but a good WR3, I think.

Draft update:

Rd3: uninspiring OT, if he lives up to his bars, he’d project out as a good-enough-to-start LT (pass blocking focused), but not that thrilling, no reason to think this is a big sneaky pick at this point.

Rd4: intriguing pick here, a 314lb DT one-trick pony, but it’s the one I like best, pass rushing. Lukas Shepherd was rated #34 on the FOF big board (whatever that means), my scout legs his PRTech at 62-99, and his 4.96 dash backs it up a bit. So, if he develops into a 5-sack pass rush specialist in time, great 4th rounder for us here. I’m optimistic. (Don’t recall why we passed in Rd3)

...to be fair, RT is a major problem areas for us, so getting a young player there does make sense. We had our hoped-for long term good-enough guy fall apart after a year on the bench, so we’re awfully thin there. If rookie Francisco McDonald looks promising, he definitely could walk right into a starting job. That’s presumably the main logic behind picking him.

RB Mayo has had an oddly star-crossed career.

To start with I used a first round pick to draft him, which I would normally never do for an RB but did anyway because I thought he was an affinity. Then I realised I pasted the csvs into my spreadsheet wrong and he wasn't an affinity.

His bars were great so he had some trade value and I dealt him away, fully expecting him to be a star elsewhere. But somehow he just hasn't, and eventually despite the bars it just became replacement-level production. Only one season where he lived up to potential. I thought slotting him into an affinity system would tease it out...but no.

Really don't get this guy. Burned a few of us.

Yeah, I honestly just don't get the RB position in this game. My underlying theory is that Jim did some research/modeling based on real-like NFL RB production, and put something into the game in some fashion to leave us with the same basic impression that most of us have about the NFL RB position-- that it seems like it's the easiest position to get replacement-level production from late-round or unheralded, undrafted guys. There's some logic there, I reckon... growing up lots of the most athletic and talented kids would play RB because it was a high-impact position, so it does make sense that the 10th best RB in, say, the SEC in a given year's draft class is probably a really good athlete/player.

Anyway...I don't understand Mayo, and basically tend to look at and trust stats more at the RB position than any other.

(Returned from a conference)

So, the draft wrapped up unspectacularly:
5th: LB Robert Lester, coverage-first guy, possible gunner
6th: S Lamont Shireman, decent bars, mas Int, but troubling void at PH
7th: LB Joel Melchior, max ST guy with big PH bar, not much else

In Ben's after-daft automated warp-up, we are ranked ... (drumroll) ... 29th. Ben's Falcons are rated 1st, naturally, from the 29 spot.

From what I see in-game:

DT Damian Baker looks like not much, we'll have to hope for a ratings boom, which I think is consistent with his bar profile, but he'll need a big bump to make that 1st round pick look good. WR Jacobs looks fine, but his GD is no longer maxed-out, so that doesn't look like great value either. The special teams LBs look like they'll be more or less what I wanted. Past that... yeah, 29th rated draft sounds about right.

We have three holdouts, too, which is nice. S Christakes is asking for more money, for christsakes. He'll get paid. 4th year CB Brenden Upshaw wants $14m/yr after one very good season (7 picks and an 86 PD% rating). That would be awfully hard to choke down. And LB Erick Emerson comes off his first season as a starter, wanting $9m/yr. Also tough to justify. But these are the inherent dilemmas that come with emphasizing cohesion and chemistry-- replacing these guys with more affordable players with comparable skills can be done, but I lose a lot of what makes this team tick. Will need to look carefully at all three guys here, and sort out who really figures to be important to this team for the next 5 seasons.

Prior to the holdouts, my plan would have been to only reneg Chtistakes, and then pursue the other in open free agency. Now my hand might be forced.

The holdouts are likely to put TE Carlton Pearson onto the bubble. He's making a cut-friendly $12m, won't reneg down from that, and comes of a very uninspiring season of 6.6 yards per target. If we think that Doss (costing $2.3m, netting 7.9 ypt) is going to be as effective, then dumping Pearson to clear out cap space is an easy call. That's a better than 50/50 proposition, I'd say.

Okay, late free agency wraps in one shot. We signed a bunch of minsal fill-in types, I tend to end up with one or two per season who actually make the roster, so this is not a wholly empty pursuit.

Holdout update:

S Christakes signs his long term offer, he will stay around to patrol the strong side for a long time. We'll work around his weak zone coverage.

CB Upshaw and LB Emerson both turn theirs down. In this fast-paced offseason, this stage is it -- either they sign, or they won't get in to play this year. So, I will need to either clear the way for their requested offers, or else be prepared to lose them. I have about $10m in cap space left, this is not an easy proposition. (Driven mostly by the fat contract with free agent CB Pedro Sutter, so yes, this is of my own doing mainly)

...following up on earlier musings, we'll release TE Pearson and his $12m salary, to re-up with our two holdouts. My plan is basically to let TE Doss play out his 4th year under his rookie contract, and we'll see if we can re-sign him next year. I don't think he is a true $10m player, and that's what it would take to extend him. We'll have a capable rotation of guys at TE this season, and our goal is NOT to be winning by throwing to the tight ends anyhow.

Biggest issues to resolve for this year's roster:

RB2 again - just like last year, pretty wide open among several guys, nobody special in the mix, just hoping to get a guy who can give us 80-400.

TE mix - with Pearon out, it will be Doss and a bunch of guys filling TE2, TE3, and FB1 roles. Nobody special here, either.

CB rotation - we are now very deep here, and need to keep everyone content. If the offense works properly, we'll have a lot of leads, and will need to go 5-deep here.

Chemistry stuff - hope to have an answer here tomorrow, if it doesn't work out I will be scrambling. This team needs all its hard-fought advantages to click.

In training camp news -- division rival Cleveland let their 62/62 WR hold out, but against all odds he ended his own holdout and reported this stage. Rats.

Our two holdouts re-signed this stage, as expected. I did some position shuffling along the DL - rookie Baker will line up at LDE, and pass-rusher Shepherd at RDE. Honestly, I don't think enough people do this stuff to match up skills with roles... I've heard way too much chatter about draft picks ("he's not good at -pickaskill- and I need that for my strong-side backer") that suggest people don't treat these positions as fungibly as they truly are.

Cutting down to 60 for preseason means making some decisions that matter:

At RB/FB, only two jobs are safe: starter Banks, and leader Roberts. Roberts is theoretically good enough to get some carries, but ideally he's just a spot duty guy in a no-injury league. 3rd year Les O'Dwyer is a shifty special teamer, but lacks the blitz protection to really be a major 3rd down back. Undrafted rookies Earl Blackburn and Van Aldridge are likely to be getting the main looks for the RB2 role. Minsal TE Duane Reed could slide into a FB role if we're unhappy with the RB group. I think Blackburn could get a preseason bump and win this thing. Nobody's getting cut right away.

At TE, Doss is the starter, and Brenden Houston is the ballgagged affinity gimp. Myles Henson is locked in as the TE2 with his maxed-out GD rating. That leaves Reid on the fence, but unlikely to stay any longer than preseason. Ondre gets cut here, he's too catching-only.

WR Larry Woodworth is cut, no longer an affinity after our leadership switch. FA Everett Buel steps into that role for now, and we hope that rookie Kirk Jacobs will hold it for the long term (though I'm now skeptical). Stallings will take the main SE role over Vukmir, but both will play a lot. Decent-at-everything Dusty Tatum is in the twilight zone, without a real role defined for him. 2nd year Cesar Jeffries has a 99 personality, but won't make it here to connect, he's out.

OL: Have 8 guys, plan to carry only 7. Rookie T McDonald looks like spare parts, plus only had a 5 personality, so he can't be a long term asset for us I don't think. Hate cutting a 3rd rounder, but... it could happen. Neither he nor the other rookie (undrafted G Benson) will get starts for an affinity this year - we might even explore signing someone who would connect right away.

LB: Biggest news is that S Cesar Howe bulks up to move up to WLB. He won't be a difference maker on the field, but we needed him for chem leadership. With that move, I have new signing CB/S Jon Hammond drift back to free safety, and he'll anchor our chemistry there. I do some trimming to get to 11 LB - we'll be watching rookie LB Robert Lester as the most promising of the young lot, which clearly needs more pruning still. Our last 7 cuts will likely include 3 more LB.

I cut down to 60, and know that we have to do another tier. This team always has about 58 guys I'd really like to keep, it gets painful. Sunk costs always play a role, too -- I've been carrying a reserve S thinking he'd one day get his chance, but now I realize he won't, and I cut him here. Should have cut him two years ago and at least booked an affinity for the last two seasons.

Our draft still rates #29 overall. Division champion Cleveland rated #1. We need to double down on all this smoke and mirrors bullshit, either that or...egad...figure out how to draft better.

He only wanted a $200K raise for this season but wanted another year and $11M guaranteed and after looking at what our cap is going to look like next season he'll likely be a trade chip or cut and we didn't want to sink anymore bonus into a short-term asset.

Ok, back to figuring out how to keep WR Duran under 200 yards and multiple TDs per game...ugh.

Okay, preseason wrapped up. Let's have a look at the rookie class. Those with sensitive stomachs may wish to avert their eyes, this isn't going to be pretty.

1 - 27 Damian Baker DT
Now 40/48, didn’t get preseason bump I wanted, looks like a rotation player

2 - 26 Kirk Jacobs WR
36/60 with 80/86, he’s a nice 5th round pick to play in the slot, whom we took too early

3 - 27 Francisco McDonald T
Nope. He’ll get cut.

4 - 26 Lucas Shepherd DT
31/46 and will make the team just for his affinity, but doubtful to be here next season

5 - 27 Robert Lester OLB
31/48 and +3 by the league scout, so maybe he’ll stick but unexciting

6 - 26 Lamont Shireman S
29/40, better suited to CB than S, bubble guy

7 - 27 Joel Melchior OLB
UDFA Rodolfo Benson RG
+6 to 26/35, good chemistry makes him a tough call, cannot manufacture starts for him

UDFA Earl Blackburn RB
37/37, solid set of ratings (top 6 bars 50+ except HoleRec 32), likely RB2

UDFA Van Aldridge RB
29/29 but 54/57 HoleRec, if that skill is everything, he’s better than Earl B

Ok, all our marginal stuff resolved. RB Blackburn makes RB2. Rookie S Shireman will make the team but stay inactive (waste of a possible affinity, I know, but we're likely to have two retirements at S and I think he could actually be a long term guy at S3/S4).

For this season, we'll try again to keep pace with johnnyshaka's Browns, but another year with a good record but not a bye seems like a real possibility. My guess is Duran can't replicate last season (seriously, now) but we are capable of another 11-5 season and a #5 seed. We'll hope instead for 13-3 and a bye week. And then, presumably, a standard playoff flop.

So, this happened:


¯\_(ツ)_/¯

In brief:

WR Duran remained unstoppable, we managed over 8.5 YPT when targeting our WR2 and TE1, so the whole offense was pretty credible, with Mathews settling in and calming down on the picks. We ran less, who cares. We yielded only 6.2 yards per attempt passing, so we basically won on both sides of the most important thing in football, the air game. CB Sutter had a really nice season as our top cover guy, and free agent signee Peter Douglas immediately doubled his career sack total in his first shot as a major rotation pass rusher.

Can't be upset about 16-0. Sorry not sorry, johnny.

Division foe or not, I gotta tip my hat to that performance...well done, Quik!

Nice work

Yes, yes, very nicely done!

Well, the good news is - we won a couple playoff games, that's nice.

In the title game, this happened.

Not going to hang this on anyone, stuff happens. Great season, exceeded expectations. We get the ball to start overtime of the championship game seeking to wrap up a perfect 19-0 season, and we come out slingin' it like we did all year. Yup, that's a fine way to lose if you're going to have to lose.

Well, it's the summer of '69. Looking forward, this is going to be a keep-it-together sort of year. We're still paying a lot for CB Pedro Sutter, and we'll feel it. WR/Demigod Luke Duran needs to get paid, and that will eat up maybe $20-25 of my $50m in available cap space. We'll have a couple more tough calls among re-signings. But the likely situation here is that we do all we can to hold together this team, and we can't do much to improve on it. After a 16-0 season, that's fair, but uninteresting.

TE Doss wanted $10m/yr last offseason to re-up, I decided that was too much for a decent but not special talent. Now, he's basically our only returning startable guy, and he thinks he's worth $16m/yr. I don't...but do I harm our offensive cohesion like that after he nearly topped 1,000 yards? Making some free agent hobo into our third option doesn't sound appetizing, so that will be its own challenge.

Chem problems in multiple places, too. That's not exciting to read/write about, but we have work to do there as well.

Ok. Fairly big news over the real-life weekend. Arizona calls, they’re a strong franchise coming off a rough season, and they want WR Stallings, whom we have blocked. We quickly agree to a deal, and we deal him for their pick at 1.11. So, that’s a pretty big, impactful move at this point of a tough offseason.

Context matters. First - this works out great on its surface. stallings came aboard via pick 1.17, gave us three seasons of well-over-replacement caliber play, and the nets us a higher pick. so, tough to complain there.

Now, the downside. He was a meaningful part of ano overpowering offense last year, and we’re letting him scamper away? He’s younger then Duran, shouldn’t he be the heir-apparent there, the guy good enough to let us keep running this silly offense even after Duran hangs em up? Fair points, there’s a strong case to be made that Stallings is a keep-forever guy, a guy you work backwards from (like I am with Duran this offseason).

My setup is basically this: the cost of re-signing Stallings would be pretty big. He’s likely to require $24m/yr, perhaps more. This offseason, affording that definitely means we can’t extend OG Corwin Mason, a star for us at LG. I know, guards are guards, but this guy is elite. I’d be cap crippled this season, and awfully thin, for years to come, if we re-did a long term deal with Stallings to be our WR2.

Now, that role presumably goes to WR Clayton Vukmir. He’s signed for 9/yr this season and next, and could possibly extend longer this offseason because he was little-used last season. Vukmir has good skills on paper — 88 BPR, 59/59 overall, solid endurance. This guy will be, on paper, one of the top handful of WR2s in this eagle, I’d guess. So...that is come comfort.

Also, it bears mentioning...Vuimir is an affinity, Stallings was not. Right or not, it matters in my thinking.

So...it’s done. With an earlier draft pick than I had anticipated, we have a chance to add a foundation caliber player (at pick 11, not likely at WR, more likely at OL or LB) but that’s good. So, we will plug in that assumption as we think about this season ahead.

Here’s Vukmir, the guy who’s thrust into the spotlight:

http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=47692

For this season, we’d like to see 90 targets, 750 yards, and 7 TD from him.

Stage FA 1:2...I apparently managed to fail to upload. Shit happens. I guess I'm lucky that in this particular offseason, it isn't a critical failure. I wasn't hot after specific free agents, etc. I know I did interviews, all that crap, and none of it registers. Alas...I don't see any of my players being signed elsewhere, so I guess I'm okay. Dumb, dumb, dumb - and this league is usually unforgiving, I think I'm lucky this time.

Okay, next shoe drops.

We deal picks 1.11, 1.31, and next years 2nd to move to pick 1.4... for... another receiver. Didn’t think this would come together (lots of AI teams picking early) but I’m glad to lock up WR Artie Dodge for our gang. If he pans out, he could be good enough to step into the WR1 role after Duran wraps. That’s the hope, at least. For now, he ought to give us a fully credible rotation at WR, and I’m cool with that. He would not have lasted to pick 11, I am very confident, he likely only dropped to 4 due to an owner asleep at the 1.3 wheel.

So, with pick 11, I likely would have landed a good-looking run-blocking OT, who would have slotted in most likely as our long term RT. Pretty much who I had expected would be my BPA there.

Factoring in the actual foregone picks is helpful in assessing whether I overpaid to move up for the WR here.

Link to GML? DDS league is slow-paced, and the faster pace of this league intrigues me.

Here you go: General Manager League Forum

It's a great league

I think the super fast pace isn't for everyone, but it's GREAT for sandboxing. I don't run this offense anywhere else, but I love searching for the pieces to run it here, and stuck with it for a few seasons even without a legit QB to give all those passes to. It's fun.

Free Agency, stages 4-5: One signing, I'm thrilled, you won't be. 5th year LB Micah McCarthy was a 6th round pick for Miami, started out 24/39, developed to 47/47 (my scout says 44/44) and they basically let him walk. We sign him to a 2yr deal, and I'm hopeful this will be a long term signing. He does everything okay - rated 50-ish in lots of stuff, including RunD and ZoneCov. He's got high endurance, and a 95 personality for an Exceptional Affinity. This is the cornerstone of the way I build my rosters. Big signing for us, even if he's merely a 40-tackle guy as our LB5 for the next 6 years.

Last season's two over-market re-signings both settle for less. LB Erickson will make about $8m/yr, and CB Upshaw will make a shade less. Both figure into my longish term plans, so I'm fine guaranteeing money to bring down the cap hits.

WR Duran turned down 5/135, so we will have to sweeten that a bit more.

I have other free agent offers in, but nothing earth-moving. Looking to bring in some camp guys, some of whom fit in as likely-inactive roster fillers. In this league, with injuries off, I find it viable to just stash high-affinity guys as my inactive players, to at least get the juice from them. That means, sometimes, cutting underwhelming rookies who aren't ready to go... but the good news is I tend to have plenty of them soon after each draft!

Round 2 draft pick likely will come later today, will update then. Just looking at the prospects a bit now.

I had a busy weekend so hadn't seen that you moved up to get the WR until late last night...f'sakes!

I need to find a way to sneak an extra DB, or two, onto the field when we play you guys!

That's what we're looking for out of a division rival!

Round 2 - we reluctantly draft DT Elliot Lind, who looks too much like a clone of a guy we took two seasons ago (I think) with the same setup -- big PR Str bar, but not a lot else going for him. I am not thrilled about this, but in a couple seasons when our current top-tier guys are gone, I feel like we'll have a youth movement along the DL where we have DT Broomfield on the nose, Baker (last year's 1st) as at least a rotation guy outside, and maybe Lind as the LDE. They could be good enough that one mercenary could round out the bunch and have us above average.

Draft update:

3.31 DT Scott Peters, a two skill guy -- stop the run, and play special teams. If he develops both of those skills up over, say, 70, he could be a nice fit rotation guy for us for a long time.

4.31 WR Wade Stutler - typical rotation guy here, high end hopes i that he develops 70 GD and 60 Courage, and gets playing time in the slot.

5.31 S Shawn Ellison - decent looking zone/bump/ST guy, about what I typically select in these lower rounds, looking for something to stick

In free agency, the big news is just a new deal with WR Luke Duran. He's unstoppable, and he'll be on our payroll until he's fading, after a 5yr extension for $145m.

We sign a few guys:

9th year LB Glen Wilcox is good enough to play a bit, and takes the lead role in our chemistry up front. Not wild about only a 66 personality, but he's the best we could do. He'll play a bit, and help with the chemistry.

6th year CB Kennedy Van Pelt is decent, with a huge bar for "play diagnosis," whatever that is worth. We're deep at CB, he will battle for a spot.

9th year LB Nathan Tomlin is a run stuffer, special teamer, and stopgap at the thin LB group. Solid pickup, he will play a lot.

5th year DT Shave Rivers will compete for a rotation role, minsal TE Omar Heath might get some targets, and G Caldwell will just look to make the team as a chemistry asset.

So, by the numbers, we have:

42 players signed
7 incoming rookie draftees
13 offers in on free agents (mostly uncontested)

So, per usual, we will have a lot of pruning to do. I typically grab at least 5 more players in the late free agency stages, so we'll likely have to cut down to 60 for preseason. I'm a raffle ticket buyer here, and fairly often end up holding onto one or two guys who didn't seem likely to make the team when signed... guys like TE Omar Heath from this stage's signings.

Draft wraps up, we take fleet-footed QB Thomas Parrish in round 6, and project TE Lionel Fravert in round 7. Both will contend for roster spots, but neither has an easy path. Our QB2 role should be up for grabs, but Parrish is only a single affinity (strike 1) and is 1% developed (strike 2) so, we'll see.

Grrrrrr... I spent a lot of time on a file for yesterday, and none of the moves in it got used. Site says it used a file on 5/23, but if so, it wasn't a final version. Ugh. Lots to do today, in the last stage of early free agency.

Our biggest free agent signing is S Bo Dennis, a 6th year guy with decent ratings and plus in interceptions. He gets real money, so he will stick - likely as alongside SS Christakes in a rotation with either 2nd year guys Shireman, or underwhelming veteran Braxton Cooper.

RB Joshua Roberts re-signed, spurning an offer from the Patriots. :evileye: He is our chemistry anchor, and in a more conventional league he'd be good enough for spot RB2 duty if we suffered an injury. Here, he's just an active roster guy without much to do.

Welp, big twist. WR Artie Dodge looks pretty good (though not great, tbh) on first look... but what stands out most is the big blue SUSPENDED label on him. Yup, hes out this year for off-the-field conduct. New one on me.

So, we're back to Vukmir as our WR2, and we'll have to hope that Dodge still pans out despite missing his rookie year. Ugh.

I'm cap crunched, have to cut holdout LB Amir Roller, and also newly signed LB Nathan Tomlin. We will be softer against the run as a result. I can live with that.

Rest of the draft class looks lousy, basically. Standard.

That sucks about the rookie WR (not!) but I wonder why he doesn't show up in Ben's report as being suspended?

I dunno...I’ve never seen it happen to a rookie before, but today I got hit in both GML and IHOF. Ben runs both leagues. Just sayin...

CONSPIRACY ALERT!!!!!

Late free agency:

A few twists here. I worked out several renegotiations, in order to clear cap space to try to sign TE Doss for a one year deal. I think his asking price was too high, and I didn't think anyone would pay him - not even AVAILABLE. But for cohesion/talent, I did not want to lose him this year. So, a 1yr bonus-loaded $8m deal at least got him listening, and my hope would have been to re-up with him next year on fairer terms.

Intead, a human-owned team decided to move in and pay him for 3 years, and he took that offer instead. I gambled, I lost, and now we are likely going to suffer -- two of our top three targets from last year's magic carpet ride are gone, and will be replaced by substantially lesser stand-ins. This year, it looks like we will use TE Ricky Maloney as our TE1 -- he's a minsal free agent signee. Big dropoff from Doss, who is good (not great) at everything we like. I could have blunted this with a free agent signing, but I got outbid earlier on a venerable guy who would have made a nice chemistry leader there too. Ugh.

Elsewhere, we grab a few undrafted rookies, nothing special I don't think. I like the looks of CB Gavin Cortez the best of the lot, he's one of those no-zone corners who look decent on paper, but basically can't play in multi-CB formations, meaning he's good for what, exactly? Right.

I have to skip this stage (training camp) today, as I don't have access to my main FOF computer and don't want to risk messing up my playbook/gameplan for the whole season. Alas, we'll head into camp looking a couple pegs down from last year, and without some of the tweaking that I'd prefer to do here.

TL;DR

If we're going to be a serious contender this season, Luke Duran is going to have to LeBron us there.