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Danny 03-04-2011 07:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2434733)
Lets work through it, CR.

Scenario #1: GE = cunning and we end up lynching a villager today.
6-2 now
goes to 5-2 with bad lynch
goes to 4-2 with night kill (assuming it is not GE)
tomorrow we lynch GE and he is cunning, 4-1
night kill leads to 3-1
and we have to get the brutal that day or we lose

Scenario #2: GE = villager and we lynch him today
6-2 now
goes to 5-2 with bad lynch
goes to 4-2 with night kill
we are left needing to get brutal/cunning without any idea who has either role and a GE runaway would have proved nothing in terms of getting next wolf

Scenario #3: we lynch a wolf today that turns out to be cunning. GE = 100% cleared the rest of the way, hunt for last wolf is easier as we can afford two misses.

Scenario #4: we lynch the brutal today, and if GE is still around in morning we go after him as cunning. Even if that is wrong, we still have a day left.

I'm sure there are a couple of other scenarios, but I don't see one where leaving GE to tomorrow hurts our cause if he is in fact a wolf. It is only if he is a villager and the person we lynch today is a villager that we are hosed. But if that is case, weren't we going to be hosed lynching GE and then the other person? I just don't see what new info we would learn, barring a close vote that involved a villager/wolf showdown.


Yes, explained very well

CrimsonFox 03-04-2011 07:52 PM

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

cougarfreak 03-04-2011 07:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2434733)
Lets work through it, CR.

Scenario #1: GE = cunning and we end up lynching a villager today.
6-2 now
goes to 5-2 with bad lynch
goes to 4-2 with night kill (assuming it is not GE)
tomorrow we lynch GE and he is cunning, 4-1
night kill leads to 3-1
and we have to get the brutal that day or we lose

Scenario #2: GE = villager and we lynch him today
6-2 now
goes to 5-2 with bad lynch
goes to 4-2 with night kill
we are left needing to get brutal/cunning without any idea who has either role and a GE runaway would have proved nothing in terms of getting next wolf

Scenario #3: we lynch a wolf today that turns out to be cunning. GE = 100% cleared the rest of the way, hunt for last wolf is easier as we can afford two misses.

Scenario #4: we lynch the brutal today, and if GE is still around in morning we go after him as cunning. Even if that is wrong, we still have a day left.

I'm sure there are a couple of other scenarios, but I don't see one where leaving GE to tomorrow hurts our cause if he is in fact a wolf. It is only if he is a villager and the person we lynch today is a villager that we are hosed. But if that is case, weren't we going to be hosed lynching GE and then the other person? I just don't see what new info we would learn, barring a close vote that involved a villager/wolf showdown.


So, like I thought this morning, Pass is the correct play...........correct?

hoopsguy 03-04-2011 08:02 PM

cougar, I guess we'll find out when EagleFan posts the results. But a lot of people agree with your Pass vote tonight.

GoldenEagle 03-04-2011 08:37 PM

I am not convinced that Pass is a wolf. He has been playing suspiciously throughout the game. At this point, I really don't know who the wolves are. I still have some suspicion of almost every player in the game.

Voting for Pass at this point makes me look suspicious if he does come back as a wolf. If I go another direction and he comes back a villager, then I am not sure what that says either. So, essentially, I am going to be under scrunity no matter what direction I go, just like Pass last night.

So I am going to vote by my gut and what my gut has been telling me all along

VOTE NTNDEACON

mauchow 03-04-2011 08:46 PM

14 minutes to deadline for those that need it.

CrimsonFox 03-04-2011 08:51 PM

Pass - ntndeacon (1811) hoopsguy (1877) PackerFanatic (1886) mckerney (1896)
GoldenEagle - Chief RUm (1815)
ntndeacon - GoldenEagle (1905)

GoldenEagle 03-04-2011 09:03 PM

Looking forward to EF getting back. I will probably be in bed, so I will catch up in the morning.

Passacaglia 03-04-2011 09:03 PM

Oh, right, we don't get results today. Well, hopefully the duke saved our butts.

Passacaglia 03-04-2011 09:05 PM

And sorry I haven't been very involved in the game lately -- I pretty much felt like I was being attacked personally, and that basically made me not want to do anything game-related.

cougarfreak 03-04-2011 09:06 PM

I'll definitely be in bed......I'm beat from a long week.

EagleFan 03-04-2011 11:33 PM

Going to start processing the results. It'll be a few as it look like I have a lot to go through.

EagleFan 03-05-2011 12:25 AM

The Teams are underway as they all start making their way toward Frankfurt.

During the travel we see Chief Rum and hoopsguy discussing the race. It seems they have some not so good intentions for a couple other teams on the race.

"I can't wait to see CrimsonFox's face..."

"Yeah...." (laughter)

"What about Autumn, this should wipe that goofy smile off his face..."

As we see Team Reebok talking we can see that the Team Fembot isn't the only team looking to play a little dirty....

"That animal team won't know what hit them..."

EagleFan 03-05-2011 12:30 AM

CrimsonFox and GoldenEagle arrive at the roabblock first. The challenge involves driving a test vehicle on a high speed course ad beating the time limit. If the player does not beat the time they must try again. If another team arrives during that time they must alternate turns if not successful.

CrimsonFox takes the challenge for his team and he does a phenominal job. He has what will end up being the fastest time of the day in the challenge.

Team Fembot arrives followed shortly by Team Reebok. It will be hoopsguy versus ntndeacon as the two teams begin the challenge.

hoopsguy seems to pick it up in training faster then ntndeacon and she takes the first run at it. She makes it the first time.

ntndeacon misses the time by just one second and must attempt a second time. He is successful and they are on their way.

EagleFan 03-05-2011 12:33 AM

JAG and mckerney arrive next and drama begins. mckerney begins to sob uncontrollably and is having flashbacks to a traumatic event from Grease.

He begs JAG to do the roadblock and he finally agrees. It takes him a couple attempts but they are finally on their way.

Shortly after they finish mauboy1 and Danny arrive. Mauboy1 does the challenge and finishes on thei first try. They have made up some time as they head for the detour.

Chief Rum 03-05-2011 12:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia (Post 2434764)
And sorry I haven't been very involved in the game lately -- I pretty much felt like I was being attacked personally, and that basically made me not want to do anything game-related.


Sorry for my part in that, Pass. I know I have treated you roughly. I wasn't the one who called you a dick, but I certainly said some less than nice things. I will say that my comments weren't intended to be personally insulting, but a frustrated commentary on the approach you took in arguing with me. I found it a little insulting to my intelligence that you would go to the point of semantics on my use if one word in a post a whole day before. Being that picky showed me you had no interest in a rational discourse.

But I shouldn't have let that get to me, so I apologize for reacting less agreeably to your argumentative style.

As to my comments regarding your stubborness and my impression you were unwilling to consider logical arguments, I stand by my words there as fair commentary.

Chief Rum 03-05-2011 12:38 AM

Oh yeah, and before anyone says anything, yes, I recognize I am just as guilty, if not more so, of being stubborn as Pass is.

EagleFan 03-05-2011 12:43 AM

Team ColorAnimal arrives at Drink It first, followed very shortly after by Team Fembot. Both teams make extremely quick work of the task. It seems they all have spent plently of time in a pub.

While they are drinking Team Reebok arrives at the river Main and begin looking for th next clue. We see them walk past a marker but very shortly after they decide to go back and look again and they find it. They are on their way but have lost a little time.

JAG and mckerney arrive at Drink It and mckerney is arguing with the people in the area about having to drink beer. He wants it to be an Appletini. After his tantrum JAG calms him down and they eventually decide to try the other detour and go to Find It.

While trying find it mckerney slips into a muddy embankment and begins to rant about the network paying for his dry cleaning.

Danny and mauboy1 arrive at Drink and and both down their beers in quick fashion. They have traveled very well through this leg and have made up a lot of time in all aspects of this leg, travel and event.

Back at the river Main JAG and mckerney have gone looking for a dry cleaner...

EagleFan 03-05-2011 12:45 AM

We see two teams show up near the pitstop at about the same time.

Chief Rum and hoopsguy jump from their cab and run for the pitstop....

CrimsonFox and GoldenEagle do the same....

We have a foot race between them.

EagleFan 03-05-2011 12:47 AM

Then CimsonFox tumbles to the ground and GoldenEagle stops to help him back up. We hear hoopsguy and Chief Rum giggling as they continue towards the mat.

hoopsguy and Chief Rum, you are the first team to arrive.

Minutes later...

CrimsonFox and GoldenEagle, you are team number two.

Team Reebok arrives shortly after as team number three.

EagleFan 03-05-2011 12:49 AM

We see the next team running for the mat; the camera focuses and we see that it is Danny and mauboy1...

Danny and mauboy1, you are the 4th team to arrive.

EagleFan 03-05-2011 12:51 AM

Cue the sad music as JAG and mckerney run towards the mat.

As they arrive mckerny hands Phil a receipt for their cleaning and demands that the network pay up.

JAG and mckerney, you are the last team to arrive.

I am sorry to tell you but you have been eliminated from the race.

JAG is completely out of the game.

mckerney is still in the werewolf portion of the game.

EagleFan 03-05-2011 01:09 AM

After the leg of the race you meet yet again, determined to find another mole.

You first start to look at GoldenEagle but soon decide that Passacaglia must be a mole. The interogation begins and you finally notice something. A mol on Pasacaglia's face...

He confesses everything....

Passacaglia was Cindy, the cunning.

Passacaglia is now completely out of the game.

EagleFan 03-05-2011 01:13 AM

Later in the evening you happen so notice another person walking around in that familiar T-shirt. It's GoldenEagle.

GoldenEagle was a vanilla villager.

He is still in the race but has no remaining additional effort to use and their team has lost their remaining aggression as both members are now out of the WW portion of the game.

EagleFan 03-05-2011 01:18 AM

Race Standings
1st - Team Fembot
2nd - Team ColorAnimal (+0:05)
3rd - Team Reebok (+0:55)
4th - Team Six (+3:25)

EagleFan 03-05-2011 01:32 AM

When you are allowed to begin you will start at Frankfurt and travel to Niagara Falls in Canada. From there...

You have a clue to the Roadblock.
Who has fast hands and good concentration? Requires Mental and Physical.

Fast Forward (this clue will be at the location of the roadblock)...
Over the falls.
- We have secured a high tech barrell built for two.
- Get in the barrell and go over the falls.
- If you survive you may go directly to the pit stop.


You have a clue to the Detour.

Sweep it: Curl a stone into the target area. Requires physical and mental.
- Each player must curl a stone into the target area while the other player sweeps.
- Must take turns until they have each played one stone into the target area.

Follow it: Find the clue. Requires Travel and Mental.
- Using a GPS locator the team must find the clue located somewhere within the city.
- Could be quick if you can understand how to read the GPS and what it is telling you.

Pit Stop - Goat Island

EagleFan 03-05-2011 01:33 AM

If you want to attempt the fast forward include it in your writeup. Only the first team to accomplish the roadblock will get to skip the tasks.

It is a risk so it is up to you to decide if you want to risk it.

Chief Rum 03-05-2011 01:52 AM

All right, mea culpa. You guys were right and big time congrats for nabbing the cunning in Pass. I'm never trusting Pass again. Sorry for not following along; I just didn't think it was the right percentage play.

I am certain you guys will come after me now. You will be lynching a villager if you do.

The good news, though, is that you have the room to do it, thanks to getting the cunning tonight. So if you guys want to lynch me, I understand (although I'll stay argue until I am blue in the face that I am a villager).

I think I have been way off in this game. Hopefully I can bounce back in the next one.

CrimsonFox 03-05-2011 03:01 AM

Danny and Hoops, you guys are absolute geniuses.

Danny 03-05-2011 03:12 AM

Hell yeah!

Danny 03-05-2011 03:12 AM

Great job guys!

Danny 03-05-2011 03:14 AM

Oh and not sure how in the world Mau and I are still in this race, but I am glad I get to contribute in helping to find the last wolf.

CrimsonFox 03-05-2011 03:19 AM

So am I really seeing this right? Has this whole Chief vs Pass thing been just one huge fake fight between two wolves? Wow Bravo for the acting. And why take out GE now? That was odd. And I think I know why. Now we have no more points left and so hoops and CHief Rum can charge toward the finish line. Hmmmm, another Chief RUm powerplay?

And for the record Pass, I never called you a dick, but you know that. I've been observing your and Chief's heated comments toward each other as really extreme and rude and I said borderline being dickish (meaning being rude to each other). But I do understand that's in the context of the game and that you are playing each other, especially now that I know you were the cunning. Hell you were playing us as the village too and you are no doubt playing us now. And I really almost fell for it. The lucky thing was I could not do anything about it as I had no vote. As I might not have voted for you today. That was come great acting dude. I dont buy it especially since you guys were shouting tooth and nail at each other and suddenly you perceive someone calling you something and get offended? That does not add up. But that was very very shrewd. I like the aggressive wolf play.

Danny 03-05-2011 03:21 AM

So we're now 5-1

We have the duke in the game and possibly a wannabee. We're in pretty good shape at this point.

Danny 03-05-2011 03:22 AM

They killed GE because he was going to be 100% cleared

CrimsonFox 03-05-2011 03:28 AM

Wait A Fast Forward! The Rob Wannabe is using his fast forward abilitiy!

CrimsonFox 03-05-2011 03:34 AM

So that means that ntndeacon is mostlikely the Rob Wannabe considering he is the only member alive from the 3rd and 4th place teams.

CrimsonFox 03-05-2011 04:27 AM

Dear village,

Please vote Chief Rum the wolf out so we can win. His "apology" post to pass absolutely proves it to me. (on top of all his voting)

GoldenEagle 03-05-2011 06:42 AM

Well, that is just mean.

mauchow 03-05-2011 07:17 AM

We even submitted a somewhat trying to be suicidal race to the finish line.. but apparently we did the leg too well for us to die yet. LOL

mauchow 03-05-2011 07:31 AM

And HIGH FIVE DANNY! We MOVE ON!

cougarfreak 03-05-2011 07:38 AM

Kinda what I expected...

Autumn 03-05-2011 08:46 AM

Very nice. This certainly paints you darkly, Chief. And if you turn up Wolf I will feel very vindicated for having gnawed at you all game.

Sucks that we can't get out of third place. If those damn wolves hadn't offed me ... we'd have you, Fembots, we'd have you!

hoopsguy 03-05-2011 09:32 AM

Well, I've got one thing to offer on Chief's behalf.

I said in the PMs last night that I was the wannabe, and that I wanted to use the fast forward last night. Now it didn't end up getting processed, perhaps in part because we had a bunch of different PMs we sent Eagle and maybe it wasn't clear enough that we wanted to use it last night. I don't know ... I revealed this about 3.5 hours before deadline, or about the time I posted in thread telling Chief to check his PMs.

So if Chief was a wolf then they would have been picking between two "cleared" villagers, since there was the expectation on Chief's part that I would be revealed in the write-up as the wannabe.

I agree most everything else about Chief looks bad, and that they certainly could have chosen "scanned/clear > looks like villager + wannabe" but I did want to put it out there as an additional data point.

mckerney 03-05-2011 09:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2434878)
Well, I've got one thing to offer on Chief's behalf.

I said in the PMs last night that I was the wannabe, and that I wanted to use the fast forward last night. Now it didn't end up getting processed, perhaps in part because we had a bunch of different PMs we sent Eagle and maybe it wasn't clear enough that we wanted to use it last night. I don't know ... I revealed this about 3.5 hours before deadline, or about the time I posted in thread telling Chief to check his PMs.

So if Chief was a wolf then they would have been picking between two "cleared" villagers, since there was the expectation on Chief's part that I would be revealed in the write-up as the wannabe.

I agree most everything else about Chief looks bad, and that they certainly could have chosen "scanned/clear > looks like villager + wannabe" but I did want to put it out there as an additional data point.


I don't think that would clear you.

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan (Post 2427342)
Network or Mole

The following roles could be had by either a mole or network player.


Russell Wannabe - This player is a wannabe ruthless player. As long as this player is still "alive" in the werewolf portion of the game they may once setup a "Yield" on a leg of the race. This player will know the details of setting up a yield. The yield is not guaranteed to help the team and could backfire.

Rob Wannabe - This player is a glory hog and wants to be on reality shows as many times as is humanly possible. If this player is still alive in the werewolf portion of the game (and his/her team is still in the race) the Rob wannabe may once setup a fast forward on a leg of a race. Much like the yield, this is not guaranteed to help his/her team and could backfire.

The Sponsor - You love the money gained from advertising on the show and want the show to last longer. While there are already a couple pre determined non-elimination legs you have the ability to select another leg to be one as well (as long as you are still "alive" in the werewolf portion of the game).


EagleFan 03-05-2011 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan (Post 2429695)
Clarification to the Wannabes and the Sponsor. When you select which leg to use your ablity you will be selecting it for the next leg. Example: if you submit it for this deadline the leg that is affected would be the second leg.

It will be known that it has been enacted.

You may submit conditional orders for it (such as, if your team is position x or higher at the end this leg enact it for the next leg).


The clarification of the wanabe roles from the day one questions.

hoopsguy 03-05-2011 10:12 AM

mckerney, while that is true it would require either:
1.) a combined "neutral" and "wolf" role
2.) multiple wolves left

Autumn 03-05-2011 10:20 AM

Hoops, I think that if you put in a fast forward order last night, it applies to the next day, as we see in the next leg's writeup. That's how my sponsor ability worked. Just so you know, I don't think it was a mix-up, you have to send it in a day ahead.

There was no reason to leave GE alive no matter what you did, I think, as GE would be 100% cleared with the cunning reveal. There could at least be some question about you.

mckerney 03-05-2011 10:30 AM

[quote=hoopsguy;2434886]mckerney, while that is true it would require either:
1.) a combined "neutral" and "wolf" role
2.) multiple wolves left[/QUOTE

Yes, it would require a neutral wolf, but since we know they can be combined knowing someone has a neutral role doesn't clear them of being a wolf.

hoopsguy 03-05-2011 11:16 AM

mckerney, do you in any way think that I'm a wolf at this point in the game? Given the events over the last two days?

If not, I don't really think there is a lot worth arguing here.

mckerney 03-05-2011 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2434906)
mckerney, do you in any way think that I'm a wolf at this point in the game? Given the events over the last two days?

If not, I don't really think there is a lot worth arguing here.


No, I don't believe that you're a wolf, just that I don't think the point you were making in Chief's defense helps him at all.

hoopsguy 03-05-2011 11:42 AM

OK, fair enough on not helping Chief in a meaningful level.

hoopsguy 03-05-2011 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan
As of post 1369:

Danny 6 - Autumn (1218), JAG (1245), hoopsguy (1294), mckerney (1342), GoldenEagle (1362), Chief Rum (1369)
hoopsguy 3 - Danny (1314), Passacaglia (1316), PackerFanatic (1324)
Passacaglia 3 - cougarfreak (1288), ntndeacon (1293), bhlloy (1358)



Repost of Day 5 vote:
NTN + Cougar on the wolf that day. Sure seems to support their cause. I'll go pull the vote/unvote stuff from that day to see how it goes down, as this is obviously an important day to review at this point.

Autumn 03-05-2011 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 2433464)
I need to put a vote in, and it's too late to drum up a new candidate. I'm going with my gut--I don't think hoops is a wolf. And while I like Danny's play, he's the most suspicious of those on the block left, IMO. I don't think I would normally vote him, with what he's done so far, but we're down to two, really.

VOTE DANNY


At this point it was 5-3-3, Danny Hoops/Pass. Interesting that Chief didn't mention Pass at all as a possibility.

Autumn 03-05-2011 12:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan (Post 2433388)
As of post 1302:

Danny 3 - Autumn (1218), JAG (1245), hoopsguy (1294)
Passacaglia 2 - cougarfreak (1288), ntndeacon (1293)
ntndeacon 1 - GoldenEagle (1297)


This is the vote count at 8:39 pm that day. Will be interesting to see what happens here as Hoops isn't even in the count yet.

Autumn 03-05-2011 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 2433439)
Heh...typical hardly mention hoops all day and then make a run while I went to go work out.

Look, I don't know hoops' allegiance. He may very well be a wolf. But just from the conversations I have had with him, he doesn't vibe like a wolf. I have seen a lot of mentions about him not being around as much and that being suspicious, but it's the truth that he's busy as heck at work. He's told me that in PMs, too, and hoops sn't the kind of guy to lie a out RL stuff to hide as a wolf. Like I said, he could very well be a wolf, but if the only reason some have is that he isn't around, u guys are barking up the wrong tree.

Plus, Pass has exhibited about as poor logical and argumentative skills in this game as I have ever seen in a player in a single game. If he took me to a sunrise and told me the sun exists, I am not sure I would buy it right now; that's how much cred he has. So following him onto hoops, I can't see the logic there.

As for the current other candidates, whatever his other qualities, I don't think Pass plays this way as a wolf. I have already pointed out how nutty it would be to see ntn as a wolf with the way Day 1 went. And I have had a good vibe from Danny all game. None of these choices really work for me, although Danny is very good as a wild hiding as a villager, and his actions, if not his words, have struck me as more suspicious than the other candidates.

It's just for vibe reasons, but my gut says to look closer at PF (who just did a driveby vote), cougar has seemed aittle off, and GE isn't as active as I recall him being.


So Danny adds Hoops to the mix, Pass follows, not a big surprise there. Packer Fan adds a drive-by vote to make Hoops have 3. Not a great vote, but he could have simply gone Danny, so I don't know if it means anything.

Then Chief posts this. I have to say I think it gives him some clearance. He had both Danny and Hoops to choose from over Pass at this point. A wolf Chief should probably jump on one of those two, rather than suggesting adding a fourth candidate.

Autumn 03-05-2011 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 2433366)
Hmm, I have thought about that myself, but it's just not a wolf play. I don't really think Pass is a wolf. I think Pass is many things at the moment--but a wolf is not really one of them, at least not without more proof.

Unless he's playing some sort of double blind game ("best hiding place is in plain sight", etc.), it seems unlikely to me that Pass would play this out the way he has while being a wolf.


Going back to earlier in the day, yes, I think those first two votes on Pass are solid. There was no need to introduce him at that point. He was arguing with Chief, and one could have either gone with Chief, or gone elsewhere and avoided the whole thing. So those are real solid village votes I think.

Here is Chief's reaction right after Pass is added. This one colors him a bit worse I think, coming out in pretty strong defense of Pass as soon as he was added as a vote target.

Autumn 03-05-2011 12:32 PM

I would consider Cougar and NTN cleared for this next vote, based on those votes. McKerney and PF are still murky based on those votes themselves, and Chief of course.

Autumn 03-05-2011 12:40 PM

1438 - Autumn votes mckerney 1-0
1508 - PF votes NTN 1-1 mck/NTN
1516 - Hoops votes Pass 1-1-1 mck/NTN/Pass
1547 - Autumn unvotes mckerney 1-1 NTN/Pass
1570 - Autumn votes JAG 1-1-1 NTN/Pass/JAG
1585 - Hoops unvotes Pass, votes JAG 2-1 JAG over NTN
1591 - NTN votes JAG 3-1 JAG over NTN
1594 - Chief votes mckerney 3-1-1 JAG over NTN/mck
1599 - Cougar votes Pass 3-1-1-1 JAG over NTN/mck/Pass
1606 - GE votes mckerney 3-2-1-1 JAG over mck over NTN/Pass
1618 - NTN unvotes JAG, votes mckerney 3-2-1-1 mck over JAG over NTN/Pass
1632 - mck votes Pass 3-2-2-1 mck over JAG/Pass over NTN
1634 - JAG votes mckerney 4-2-2-1 mck over JAG/Pass over NTN
1640 - mck unvotes Pass, votes JAG 4-3-1-1 mck over JAG over NTN/Pass
1666 - NTN unvotes mck, votes JAG 4-3-1-1 JAG over mck over NTN/Pass
1678 - GE unvotes mck, votes JAG 5-2-1-1 JAG over mck over NTN/Pass

This bears a new look as well, now knowing Pass was bad.

Yesterday's vote should be examined I think, considering that both PF and Mckerney moved off GE, a villager, onto Pass, a wolf, for the decisive votes. Looking back, do we think they felt enough pressure that they had to move? Or does that pretty much clear them and point a finger at Chief?

Autumn 03-05-2011 12:44 PM

Mckerney in the vote posted above basically puts Pass in the mix at 1632 tying him with JAG behind Mckerney. Not much of a wolf move there. He then later switches from Pass to JAG, allowing NTN to put JAG ahead. Hard to argue that Mckerney looks like a wolf there.

It seems Chief and PF are the only ones to consider right now, in my mind, unless I've missed someone.

Autumn 03-05-2011 12:45 PM

I guess I've ignored Hoops. I may go back and look at him again, too. But my impression so far is that if he's a wolf, he deserves to win the game so that we can go back to lynching him day 1 every day.

Danny 03-05-2011 12:49 PM

Autumn, also don't forget that Pass was willing to follow on the Hoops vote. I'd say there is no way Hoops should receive a vote. I doubt he's a wolf and if he is, he deserves a good job and the win.

Danny 03-05-2011 12:51 PM

Cougar, ntn and Hoops are almost certainly villagers. I find it ridiculous that people are still looking at ntn.

Our last wolf is between CR, Mckerney and Packer.

Danny 03-05-2011 12:52 PM

I also wonder if CR really comes out for Pass like that yesterday knowing he's going to be the lynch? It's quite possible he really felt he was going to be a villager.

Danny 03-05-2011 12:56 PM

It's possible CR is just guilty of having a bad game lol

mckerney 03-05-2011 01:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn (Post 2434929)
I guess I've ignored Hoops. I may go back and look at him again, too. But my impression so far is that if he's a wolf, he deserves to win the game so that we can go back to lynching him day 1 every day.


I have to agree on trusting hoops. I could see a situation where a wolf would help vote off his two teammates to gain trust, but in this situation it's not something I could see the brutal doing.

mckerney 03-05-2011 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny (Post 2434931)
Cougar, ntn and Hoops are almost certainly villagers. I find it ridiculous that people are still looking at ntn.

Our last wolf is between CR, Mckerney and Packer.


And we have two lynches to get the right one, correct?

Danny 03-05-2011 01:07 PM

That's correct.

mckerney 03-05-2011 01:12 PM

How confident is everyone else that it's down to me, Chief Rum and Packer?

Danny 03-05-2011 01:14 PM

I think you just revealed as the duke

Autumn 03-05-2011 01:17 PM

Well, unfortunately we're dead, but I'm pretty sure Danny and I agree that it's down to you three, and I've already narrowed it down to PF and Chief.

mckerney 03-05-2011 01:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny (Post 2434943)
I think you just revealed as the duke


I was thinking now would be the time to do that so I don't have to decide who to lynch first.

Danny 03-05-2011 01:18 PM

And if I'm correct on that, we are definitely down to CR and Packer.

Danny 03-05-2011 01:19 PM

It's a fine time I think. Good job on the duke btw, I'm glad you didnt go willy nilly with it over the last couple days like some would have

Danny 03-05-2011 01:23 PM

Mau, great job on our race plan yesterday, I still don't know how we managed that.

mauchow 03-05-2011 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny (Post 2434950)
Mau, great job on our race plan yesterday, I still don't know how we managed that.

Yeah, punching the drunk in the face and stealing his car worked! WOOT!

mckerney 03-05-2011 01:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny (Post 2434948)
It's a fine time I think. Good job on the duke btw, I'm glad you didnt go willy nilly with it over the last couple days like some would have


I was ready to use it on JAG when I was on the block. Probably would've voted for JAG earlier in the day if I hadn't had the ability to duke, but I was guessing I'd get some wolf votes and wanted to see how things would play out with 3 candidates.

Autumn 03-05-2011 01:34 PM

Yeah, McK, excellent Duke work. First time in a long time I've seen it managed wisely (including the one time I had it and muffed it).

I think you were already cleared based on my analysis above, but still good to know.

Danny 03-05-2011 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn (Post 2434954)
Yeah, McK, excellent Duke work. First time in a long time I've seen it managed wisely (including the one time I had it and muffed it).

I think you were already cleared based on my analysis above, but still good to know.


Yeah, good work on the posts Autumn. Who knew that letting dead villagers talk would hurt the wolves so much :D

Autumn 03-05-2011 01:46 PM

Well it makes sense, they don't have to worry about us, and it's rather liberating to be able to post without trying to imagine if you're going to get yourself voted by it.

Autumn 03-05-2011 01:47 PM

I also think it could be illuminating to look back at PF. I don't have a sense on him other than the stuff I looked at above, whereas I've been following Chief all game.

cougarfreak 03-05-2011 01:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny (Post 2434935)
It's possible CR is just guilty of having a bad game lol


Is he normally one of he better players?

Autumn 03-05-2011 01:48 PM

I think, without digging it up, that PF had the first vote on Mauboy day 1. Chief adn Martin voted him simultaneously later. So it's interesting to see that we definitely had a lot of wolf on wolf votes to start the game. I suspected that they had decided to try that tack. Those votes therefore no longer help to clear either of those guys.

cougarfreak 03-05-2011 01:48 PM

"the", not "he", sorry.

Autumn 03-05-2011 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cougarfreak (Post 2434962)
Is he normally one of the better players?


Definitely, Cougar. The fact that he's been so off on his analysis and targets is a big reason I suspect he's a wolf. He's usually spot-on with his analysis as a villager.

cougarfreak 03-05-2011 01:53 PM

Well, I'll say this. Keeping all the dead people talking has certainly been helpful for a fairly new player.

mckerney 03-05-2011 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn (Post 2434958)
Well it makes sense, they don't have to worry about us, and it's rather liberating to be able to post without trying to imagine if you're going to get yourself voted by it.


It helped to have some voices we knee we could trust, and even more with you two and Crimson having solid analysis.

hoopsguy 03-05-2011 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn (Post 2434928)
Mckerney in the vote posted above basically puts Pass in the mix at 1632 tying him with JAG behind Mckerney. Not much of a wolf move there. He then later switches from Pass to JAG, allowing NTN to put JAG ahead. Hard to argue that Mckerney looks like a wolf there.

It seems Chief and PF are the only ones to consider right now, in my mind, unless I've missed someone
.


That is where I'm at now as well, although I haven't done the vote/post dive exercise that you've gone through this afternoon.

Autumn 03-05-2011 02:41 PM

I just read back through PF's posts. Really nothing to go by there, I think. The only suspicion he creates is that 1) I don't remember him being this quiet normally and 2) it certainly would be the best wolf strategy to play as quietly as he has. He put in a good vote day 1 and coasted on it until now. His general strategy seemed to be to vote early, and often ended up on a non-candidate. Chief looks more like he was trying to influence votes in the game, PF may have been implementing a "stay out of the vote drama" strategy. Hard to say.

Chief Rum 03-05-2011 04:38 PM

I'm not a wolf. I am glad mckerney came out as the duke. Since we have a couple days, I think it's about time I get less emotional tripped up in this game, for whatever reason, and back toward my analytical side. So I'll take a look at vote counts myself and see what I can find. I don't know that it will end up any better than what you guys have, but we'll see...

Chief Rum 03-05-2011 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cougarfreak (Post 2434962)
Is he normally one of he better players?


Go figure, huh? I have to live up to my rep every game, or I tend to disappoint people. I think I played an excellent game in the Vegas game, so this is really just the law of averages.

To be fair, there are a ton of truly great players in this community. I could name off ten off of the top of my head without even thinking. I don't think I am better than any one of them.

ntndeacon 03-05-2011 04:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn (Post 2434963)
I think, without digging it up, that PF had the first vote on Mauboy day 1. Chief adn Martin voted him simultaneously later. So it's interesting to see that we definitely had a lot of wolf on wolf votes to start the game. I suspected that they had decided to try that tack. Those votes therefore no longer help to clear either of those guys.


I definately think the PF early vote on mau is no longer clearing either.

CrimsonFox 03-05-2011 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn (Post 2434958)
Well it makes sense, they don't have to worry about us, and it's rather liberating to be able to post without trying to imagine if you're going to get yourself voted by it.


:+1:

CrimsonFox 03-05-2011 06:30 PM

When's the next deadline for race and werewolf? MOnday?

EagleFan 03-05-2011 08:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox (Post 2435039)
When's the next deadline for race and werewolf? MOnday?


Yep, 9 and 10 on Monday.

PackerFanatic 03-06-2011 01:04 AM

I have been admittedly quiet this game, and I apologize for that. I do tend to be quiet more often than not, but definitely more so this week (stupid week-long training sucked the life outta me, lol). I will simply say this...I followed the bandwagon yesterday (Friday) - I didn't want to hit the cunning first, to give us a better chance, and I was amongst those that though GE could be it (hence my quick unvote after voting him) and I didn't want to NOT get a vote in, so I followed hoops' lead with my vote (hence the hit-and-run)

I think my day 1 vote is probably my only saving grace right now, even though it's being questioned right now. If I were a wolf, it would be a pretty ballsy move to open up the voting on a fellow wolf - even on the first day. You never know who is going to gain traction on those days, why would I risk a friend that early?

EagleFan 03-06-2011 07:03 PM

Leg Seven in Pictures


Frankfurt Airport














EagleFan 03-06-2011 07:07 PM

RIP Major Winters






ntndeacon 03-06-2011 08:35 PM

Vote Packer

EagleFan 03-06-2011 10:08 PM

As of post 1999:

PackerFanatic 1 - ntndeacon (1999)


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