I hate to lose three villagers, but I'm glad to see that I was right about Lathum. However, I was way off on saldana and st.cronin. Back to the drawing board I go.

I'm not so sure about this. There are 17 folks left. On the light side, we have townsfolk and rangers. The victory conditions for these 2 groups don't depend on the other being eliminated, so we can work together.

I'm trying to figure out how many good people are left and how many bad people are left. I think I lack the experience in these big games to know how many folks there were for each dark faftion at the start of the game. I'm thinking it is possibly 3 a piece with the abilty to convert.

So, looking a starting postions, I think we still have an 11-5 advantage. The problem is with the multiple kills per night. We need to figure out who's who at this point. I don't think it is a bad idea for the seer to start letting us know what they've found especially if they know who is a bad guy.

Could someone with more experience in the big games give their opinion on how many dark side folks there might be at this point?

I don't see any reason to change the vote I made yesterday, so I am going to stick with that. Let's get the ball rolling.

VOTE Tyrith

I actually was starting to distrust St.Cronin based mainly on him still being around. He was an active player without any lynching heat on him trying to drive people to logical methods of voting (whether you agreed with his logic or not, he applied a very detailed and thought out reasons for why he felt we should do what they are doing.)

That is the exact type of player that I would expect to be night killed, so if he was still around much longer I likely would have started to get suspicious of him.

Now that we know what we do about the day 2 vote between Lathum and Chief we know it was villager vs villager run off. Its pretty funny though that Tyrith predicted St.Cronin's death in a pool of blood last night.

I'm wondering if there is any value in looking at the people who have been hiding their votes somewhat. Something like Brian's voting pattern jumps out at me. Day one vote for Spleen (with late jump to Scoobz after he was already surely lynched), day 2 vote for Lathum and day 3 vote for Tyrith.

My guess is we started with 3 bad guys per team (or 2 + conversion ability) and 3 rangers (or 2 + conversion ability). I think we likely started with 2-3 neutral roles. That would leave roughly 12-14 villagers to start.

My guess was:

13 Villagers
3 Saruman (or 2+1)
3 Sauron (or 2+1)
3 Rangers (or 2+1)
3 Neutral.

THat would make the current numbers:

7 Villagers
2? Saruman (depending on what Scoobz was)
3 Sauron
3 Rangers
2 Neutral (or possibly 1 depending on what Scoobz was).

This is my best guess with the thinking that most likely any conversion possibilities there were have been used by now for most teams. There might be chances of multiple conversion chances on some timer however.

My thoughts exactly...im rather suprised neither bad army took a shot at who i figured they would, unless they were afraid of a block.

I know your dead, but i figured i would simply say you were 3rd behind sublime and izulde. You werent being accused like you think, just mentioned along with the other two. Im sorry you died, i was looking forward to playing with you a little longer.

I kinda thought that another would be targeted last night too. I am surprised both women made it through the night. in addition to Blade

Was it a sure lynch of Scoobz when I voted for him? I don't know the exact vote count (nor did I at the time), but I wanted to make sure we had a majority. Day 2 I thought Lathum was more suspicious than Chief Rum, and I still think Tyrith is suspicious.

I actually got st.cronin AND saldana with that one.

You were the last to vote for Scoobz (you made it 15), so we were already over the limit needed.

Well like I said, I wasn't counting that closely. You can believe me or not.

Yes, god damn me for being right when i openly stated i didnt think either chief or lathum were bad that day. It must make me evil for being right. Just a few hours ago you were accusing me of always being wrong with my votes, yet so far all thats been proven was i made the right move while you did not. But, despite the fact you are not my top suspect, here you are spinning the lynch away from you again in the bolded part.

Now, i could have totally agreed with you since it would make it easier to get sublime lynched with his voting record, but i felt this statement needed to be made as with the death of the 3 last night there is a much smaller group of players who are willing to stand up to you.

Yep, vote recap was posted at 8:32 saying there was 10 votes for Scoobz. You posted right after that so were in the thread responding to things. The 13th vote and lynching vote was made at 9pm, with another vote after that.

You voted the 15th vote, switching your vote 20 minutes after the 14th vote once it seemed a dead lock and on the same page with a previous vote count update stating how many votes Scoobz had.

Well, unfortunately we had a villager vs. villager runoff on day 2. So any bad guys who weren't trying to "hide in plain view" probably split and buried their votes.

Oh Good grief Blade, get over the persecuted act already. In the quote you posted, you can very clearly see I was refering to Brian's voting patterns and have followed it up with discussion on him. What in your mind could you possibly think that post had anything whatsoever to do with you?

Oh I forgot, every one of my posts is a subtle hint to try to get you lynched.

I'll take your word for it. I remember not knowing exactly what the situation was at the time and wanting to make sure we didn't come up short. If it was unnecessary and suspicious...so be it.

3 hours ago alan, read it..you cant tell me that i should ignore that post when you make other comments about who to vote for

Next time I will make sure to put more than one of these in a post where I am joking: :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D

Give it a rest already, I very clearly said there that voting for you would only be out of spite because of posts of yours exactly like this.

The top one was a joke, the bottom one wasnt. I said sublime i my top target, but i think its become very clear the bad guys have adopted a kill the vets strategy(vocal vets at least). So when i look around, i dont see too many left...i see you, i see me...

There are other vets around, but they have been far quieter. So when i see all the "vocal" vets die except you and me, and i know im good, i cant trust you right now. Id rather have sublime lynched, but much like your reasoning you stated here for cronin, its hard for me to ignore you:

Thats fair enough, I have no problem if people want to be suspicious over my being around right now. As long as you're ready to go down that path with me.

I personally think its a waste as my top suspects right now are:

BrianD, Mr.Wednesday, Tyrith, Izulde, Schmidty

and my most UtR people I am considering right now are:

Swaggs, ntndeacon, Sublime

I have absolutely little trust in anyone right now, the only one I was starting to feel good about (Lathum) died last night. Before last night, my top two suspects were St.Cronin and Saldana.

Now if you want to make this entire day about you and me and ready to go to a lynch over it we can definitly do that. But right now I'm seeing this as an attempt to try to distract everyone from the points I am making about BrianD more than anything else.

I'm going to play devil's advocate for a second and go with the people blade has been talking about. Saldana, well, I've never liked him....oh, wait, you mean he's dead already? Aw. :P

Sublime 2 - Hasn't been on the lynched candidate either of the last two days. His posts generally seem to indicate he's just trying to do the right thing and he's a little overwhelmed right now....if this isn't setting off alarms in your head considering who is posting this, it should be. I pulled off this BS scheme before. The fact that he wasn't on the lynchee means we can't read his votes, so we don't know what side he's on. Would a more experienced bad guy help along with this plan? I certainly think it's possible. I started picking up a real bad vibe about Sublime yesterday because of the parallels with myself, so consider me suspicious.

Izulde - I really don't know. I read over his posts yesterday evening and didn't get anything too alarming...but now that I look again, the accusations do cause problems. I'm suspicious here too, but I don't have nearly as much to back it up. Sublime would come first if I were to vote between the two.

I'm still suspicious of most of the quieter people that have done middle-late votes on rum and kwhit...gram for sure, lsg, Mr.W (would be playing a really nice game because he's doing his best to make it seem like he's a team player), and Thomkal. And with Schmidty....well, he could be dropping hints he has a really big role, or there could be some nonsense going on.

Yes, when i said repeatedly sublime was my #1 and izulde is my #2 i want to force a lynch between the two of us. I swear, as hung up on you as you think i am, you really are hung up on me in your mind having no goal in this game but killing you. Its rather ironic how similar we feel the other player is playing us.

Oh, I forgot to talk about Brian. Yeah, I don't have a good read on him because I haven't played with too much, but he sure is good at acting suspicious in general. I wish we had some way to start a CoT at all instead of being on Day 4 running around like chickens with our heads cut off. NOTE: I am not advocating role reveals of critical people, don't accuse me of being a wolf for that :P

Alan, blade, unless you two want to screw us all FOR THE LOVE OF EVERYTHING STOP BICKERING.

The reasons for sublime are based on this game only...my reasons for izulde are heavily based upon the fact last time i saw him play, in which he was evil, i feel he played basically the exact same game. So take it for what you will, but no one can accuse me of not saying what im thinking

Oh, and now i have a 4th canidate, becuase they werent killed last night. If this person doesnt die tonight, they will go much further up my list.

Bad idea to give them this. Now they can screw with us if they can figure out who that person is (and I don't think it's going to be too hard).

Well to get back to the point i was -trying- to make before that intermission...

I do find your moves suspicious so far. The late meaningless move onto a bad guy, followed by the insistence the next day that no bad guys could possibly have known he was bad when in fact it hasn't been proved one way or another.

The next two days managing to stay off of the person being lynched (day 2 when it was villager vs villager) and yesterday when it was villager vs unknown are a little less suspicious, but just adds to what i saw on day 1.

In this game the bad guys don't necessarily know who all the other bad guys are, but they just know who isn't on their team.

The person did it to herself with comments made recently...i was going to let it slide for awhile, but comments made make me much more doubtful now.

Just to throw this out for discussion: Doesn't it make sense to keep you two around? Why not keep two vocal vets so that people will be suspicious of you?

For what it's worth, I think Alan is good. I still have reservations on you (mainly because of the first day), but you're not high on my list.

I got lynched!?!? Sheesh.

That was ummm... Not very smart.

I made a late vote switch that almost made a no-lynch. It was shown that the guy I very nearly saved (CR) was a good guy. Then why in the world would you guys lynch me? I figured I'd be closer to a circle of trust than a lynch victim.

Oh well. Ya'll have fun.

Watch the language

Gosh darn me, sorry

Alright, this is eventually going to get me lynched, but the new and improved list:

1.Sublime
2.Izulde
2.Thomkal

2 and 3 are tied for 2

4.?? is a ways back, and is now strongly tied to #2b

Yes I have played with you. Remember that beginner game? And that other one game I was in where I got night killed early, you may have been in that, too.

Okay, I might as well put my money where my mouth is and get this mess started.

VOTE SUBLIME 2

Well, since I still have my suspicions about LSG and her quietness and she was my initial vote yesterday.. and she suddenly can't remember that I've played with her before... on the block she goes.

VOTE LONESTARGIRL

Right now, ntndeacon is high on my list. On day 1 he voted for Swaggs. Day 2 he was the third vote for Lathum. And yesterday, after being called out by Alan, he started ranting about KWhit. At that time, KWhit only had three votes. It was shortly after that that the piling on KWhit began. ntndeacon didn't add his vote until he was number 8.

Stuff like forgetting that she had played with you before seems highly unlikely to be wolfish to me. A fact that can be easily checked is a bad choice of fact to try to pass off on the rest of us. I wish you'd come up with some other reason than her being quiet to suspect her because votes like this will set off alarms with most of the people in this game.

Amen, good grief it is getting ridiculous

Yup, I thought the same.

Izulde,

I've had my suspicions of LSG, too, but your actions yesterday smell fishy. You jumped on the KWhit bandwagon in the middle (fifth vote) and then pushed for saldana to keep his vote for KWhit instead of LSG. Why were you so eager to have KWhit lynched?

I was debating something similar. One of my thoughts was someone who voted for Lathum day 2, and once he fell out of the lynch spotlight went ahead and night killed him last night. My thinking is the Lathum kill was Saruman's "assassination" kill action and that once again drew me to thinking about people who wern't fond of killing Scoobz on night1.

This thinking is what actually led me to BrianD in looking at voting patterns this morning, but ntndeacon follows the same pattern. Day 1 Swaggs, day 2 Lathum. Mr. Wednesday also seems to fit the pattern some too. (which you can see where I based my immediate distrust list from.)

I voted ntndeacon yesterday due to him being super under the radar, and the fact he seems to fit in the profile that I can invision a bad guy in, I wouldn't have a problem voting for him again today. (That and the contribution he made after I voted for him yesterday was mostly rehashing already stated arguements).

Although I am very suspicous about Izulde, I agree with where everybody is going about sublime. So for the sake of lynch, if sublime needs an extra push to make sure he dies today, ill switch my vote... but not until closer to 10

dola, ignore the first quote by blade. I was going to make a reply to blade earlier and started multi-quoting stuff and decided it would be childish for me to do that and stopped. I didn't clear out all of my multiquote buffer. only the last quote is applicable to this post.

I believe that both Blade and Alant are good, they are bickering like they usually do, just more heatidly. On the other side of the spectrum, the people that i really think are wolves are

1. izulde
2. sublime
3. BrianD

Everybody else im in the middle with.... hopefully by putting pressure on izulde and sublime we will find out a lot today.

I'll go ahead and put the vote out I guess. I'll go with yesterday's vote for ntndeacon then.

Vote Ntndeacon

VOTE ntndeacon

I'm hoping this puts some pressure on him so we can see how he responds.

Because I'm of the belief that it's better to have a lynch than no lynch and because by my own reasoning of LSG's quietness, KWhit had been the same too. Besides, other people mentioned some voting oddity.

Do you know what the voting oddity was?