Chris Brown over at OrangeBloods.com is saying that Notre Dame is interested and has been given an end-of week deadline by the Big 10 to make a decision.

NCAA tournament auto-bid yes (although you can get waivers), but BCS auto-bid to the champion is entirely separate from the NCAA.

Precisely. The 5-year rule is for auto bids and waivers are available. For most sports, a reformulated Big 12 wouldn't need to worry too much about auto bids and the NCAA might give it a waiver anyway.

The BCS formula for getting an autobid is different. Given that when the BCS recently released the formula, the Mountain West was already close. Add the top of the Mountain West, WAC and CUSA to the Big 12 and I think you'd have a BCS eligible league.

If they say yes, will you be willing to crawl back to the Big 12? Or should Mizzou just disband the athletic department and start one at the Rolla campus?

Thanks for the info on the NCAA conference rules. I appreciate it. I think the Big 12 would be a much better name, and you wouldn't have to have Wyoming, UNLV, SDSU, etc. Those teams could go to the WAC.

You could be right, but I do specifically remember the Big East commissioner talking about one of the reasons the BBall only schools and football schools stuck together after the ACC raid was to keep the BCS auto-bid. I suppose the notion could've been that if they separated, the football schools would be forming a new league that wouldn't inherit the BE's autobid by default.

They're not be offered the 12th spot. They're being offered the 16th spot.

You sure it was the BCS auto-bid and not the NCAA auto-bid? I don't see why having non-football playing members would matter for football reasons. In lacrosse the Big East didn't get any credit because all the schools play together in other sports.

A separation of the two conferences would have forced one group (presumably the breakaway football teams) to form a new conference, thus they would have lost their auto-bid in basketball and all the other non-revenue sports. But there are no auto-bids anywhere in football, and the BCS criteria and championships are a separate entity from the NCAA.

Here's what it says on wikipedia:


So I guess the worry was merely "possibly" losing the BCS bid if they split. Unfortunately there's nothing cited to clarify exactly why they were worried about that, but it does seem to imply that the Big East believed there was possibly a tie between splitting from the BBall schools and losing the BCS bid, which is what I remembered being talked about as well.

I would imagine that a drastic change in conference membership may cause a conference to lose its contractually obligated BCS bid (the Big 12 currently has a contract with the BCS for a bid) but a reconstituted Big 12 would likely easily clear the threshold for earning a BCS bid.

I think it's just indicative of the poor leadership of the Big 12 that this doesn't appear to even been an option and that other conferences are eying the leftover pieces.

If I were KU, K-State and Iowa State, I would be busy identifying candidates for a new commissioner and making lists of who to invite to the Big 12 rather than calling up Nebraska and Missouri and begging them not to leave or lobbying Iowa to vote against Big Ten expansion.

Are you overlooking the part on Orangebloods.com where the Big Ten is willing to just stay at 12 if Notre Dame accepts an invitation?

hxxp://texas.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1091903

Or common sense. What good does Mizzou, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Rutgers, Boise State, or anybody else do the Big Ten if they have Notre Dame, a conference championship game, and the team that can provide the biggest increase in TV fees? In fact, it does all of the members bad because they'll have to split the money with a different team that won't bring in enough money to hold its weight.

There are few teams that could match what Notre Dame brings. Texas might come close, but they would be the only "free agent" who could do it.

I'm with MBBF on this one. Notre Dame won't be the 12th team in the Big 10. They might be the 14th or the 16th, but not the 12th. The only way it makes sense for them to forgo their independence and join the Big 10 is if enough movement happens first where they feel a strong enough threat (by not having a home for their non-football sports or by having a major obstacle put in place to reaching a BCS game). Notre Dame just won't be the first domino to fall...their big money guys are too inherently opposed to losing their independence.

But if the Big Ten only needs to appear willing to go to 16 (and collapse the Big East), then perhaps ND's hand is being forced. Especially if the Big East has given them an ultimatum as well.

Exactly. What if they use Missouri, Nebraska, and a couple of Big East teams to get ND to commit, then pull the plug on anyone but ND? ND just needs its hand forced, meaning the Big 10 can show them that they have teams ready to move on an official offer. If they knowingly choose to go with 16, fine, but if they show that scenario and the rest of the Big 10 and ND decide they'd rather just go it alone andshare the money among 12 instead of 14 or 16...

Problem is that there is no conceivable way that the Big East would issue such an ultimatum, unless there's something buried in the bylaws that would give the Providence Mob that ability.

You have 16 schools. Take out ND because they're not kicking themselves out. The 8 basketball-only schools don't want ND out of the conference, they literally have nothing to lose and everything to gain by having them included. Then you have Pitt and Rutgers who want to join the Big 10; if like you're saying ND as #12 results in no more movement, those schools aren't going to pressure them. Most likely Syracuse and UConn would like a shot as well. So who are the ones left voting for such an ultimatum?

The Big East could give Notre Dame an ultimatum in theory, but they really can't do it. At most two or three teams of 16 will be leaving. The basketball schools don't want Notre Dame to go. There's not enough leverage. Notre Dame knows full well the Big East is better with them than without them. They won't feel pressure. It's not like the Big 12 where the South wants to stay together, but the North teams are ready to go. The South has options however, so if they lose the standoff, they are gone. They have a little to lose, but not nearly as much as the Big East does.

ND knows they can wait and see what happens. The Big Ten is kind of in an odd situation. If Missouri gets the invite and they take it, the Big 12 will try to replace them. This means that Notre Dame won't have to go because hell is not breaking loose yet. The one thing they know they can do to get all hell to break loose is to invite Nebraska. But, Nebraska isn't quite as sure a deal of accepting as Missouri--I think Nebraska could be talked down, but Missouri is gone if they get an offer from the Big Ten.

If Nebraska goes, and the Big 12 schools follow to the Pac Ten, then I think Notre Dame really starts listening. But, I think if the Big Ten plays it smart, they offer Nebraska and see if they accept. Then they have 12. Then they can invite Notre Dame and a Big East team or Missouri or Kansas if the Big 12 schools leave for the Pac 10. But they only need to get to 14. They don't get Notre Dame at 12, but they get Notre Dame at 14 with a strong Nebraska team and some other team.

It's funny that Nebraska's decision (if the Big Ten offers) could really change the landscape of college football. But let's not pretend they have the power here. The Big Ten has the first decision to make. Texas has the power to move to the Pac 10 regardless of what Nebraska and Missouri do. They don't want to go, but will if the Big 12 becomes a dead man walking (even more so than it is right now). Notre Dame is the key in the decision who to invite. I don't think the Big Ten will expand unless they are assured or at least pretty much believe that Notre Dame will be part of those plans...otherwise there is no reason to do so with the deal they have now.

Chip Brown was on the radio tonight
.
- if Notre Dame says yes to the Big 10, the B10 will NOT invite any other schools. ND is their #1 target and they insist that they are the only addition. Expansion ends at Notre Dame or they dont come
- ND likely has the same timeline as the B12 game Nebraska/Missouri
- If there is no B10 expansion beyond ND... most likely the B12 stays as is
- If ND says no, Nebraska/Mizzou likely gone and dominos fall

Chip Brown can say it as many times as he wants, but it doesn't make it plausible. The idea that the Big 10 would ever give Notre Dame a deadline that wouldn't make ND laugh immediately is ridiculous. They've been the #1 target for how long now? There could be 24 teams in the new Big 10 and they would find room for them as the 25th. Again, that's why they won't be the 12th team in. The B10 will likely get a couple schools who have left from the Big 12 implosion, and round it out with ND as the 14th if they feel the pressure. Or they'll likely add a couple BE teams in their hopes of capturing a portion of NYC, and then add ND to finish it off.

I agree with that. No deadline for ND. I mean, they have some kind of "they're a good academic institution" exception for not being part of the AAU (or whatever it's called).

The Big Ten won't get a couple of schools from the Big 12 implosion though, they will cause it. But we'll see because I doubt Nebraska or Missouri will say anything to the ultimatum. Then we'll know whether Texas, et al. were bluffing or not.

I'd be surprised if Notre Dame were willing to be rushed here. They've already decided they don't want position 12 in a 12-team conference in a world that isn't changing.

And they know they can have position 16 if the Big Ten does touch off Conference Armageddon.

All eyes on Nebraska now. We know what Missouri wants. The question is what the Big Ten really wants. If they offer Nebraska, it's CA time.

I'm not sure how much clearer I can make it. Chip is about 2 days behind this process as far as what NU and MU are doing. Mizzou and Nebraska have already agreed to leave. Mizzou officials are hoping to make some sort of an announcement today. Have not heard anything specific on when NU plans on making their announcement. As digamma mentioned, the poster on the NU board who said a NU announcement was coming was making his 1st post, but his info is exactly the same as what's being circulated by people within the MU athletic department.

As for the Notre Dame situation, the person who wrote the article saying that ND may be the only team has since backed off that comment and said that is no longer the case. He described it as a 'very fluid situation'.

A member of the Kansas Board of Regents has said that KU and KSU may not be required to join the same conference.

Will KU, K-State Go Separate Conference Ways? - Kansas City News Story - KMBC Kansas City

Official board votes by MU and NU to join the Big 10 will be done this week. MU Board of Regents meets today and tomorrow. Nebraska Board of Regents meets tomorrow and Friday. It would appear Beebe is going to get his response before the ultimatum clock expires.

Two new articles about the invites being issued per a KC radio station..........

themorningcall.com: Nittany Lines Blog

Rumor: Big Ten invites Nebraska, Notre Dame, Missouri, Rutgers

Some VERY interesting e-mails from a Baylor board rep:

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcont....7e10ca51.html

As much as all of this excites me (not that it necessarily will personally affect me or anything, just the idea of all this change is interesting), I still think there are too many moving parts for a huge change to occur. You've got the Notre Dame issue, you've got Baylor to the Pac-10, which no one but Baylor people wants to happen, you've got the Big 10 not necessarily shooting for 16 teams, etc.

The thing I don't understand is if NU and MU declare on Friday or sometime next week that they're leaving the Big 12, they aren't doing that without a solid gold promise that they'll be taken by the Big 10. But if the Big 10 really wants ND first and foremost, and their best scenario is ONLY ND, how do the NU and MU moves make any sense? The way this is playing out, there doesn't appear to be a way for the Big 10 to end up with just ND. Not without a whole lot of backstabbing and reneging, anyway.

There have been so many scenarios thrown out that I am sure someone, somewhere has this all pegged, but I agree with you. There are going to be hang ups and back stabbing and some folks, with high expectations, are going to end up with hurt feelings.

Just in the ACC expansion, there were a ton of twists and turns. For weeks (months?) all we heard was that it was going to be Miami, B.C., and Syracuse to the ACC and when the final vote came down, it was only Miami and Virginia Tech (w/ B.C. added a season later).

There is not going to be a single announcement that resolves all of this over the next month or two. The landscape is going to be settling and resettling over the next several years.

Exactly, your second sentence answers your first one. It's what sooners and I were saying last night. ND as #12 will never happen and ND and the Big 10 know that.

Not that it matters to anyone, or that you should put any stock into it whatsoever, but the Rutgers guys who are plugged into the Athletic Dept have been saying for months now that our Big 10 spot is assured and have been steadfast in denying all the contrary reports since. There's one guy who was adamant about the majority of the proces being settled by the end of June through the times when Delaney was making his statements about everything dragging out for 18 months or whatever. Do I put full faith into it? No, because things can change quickly. But I haven't been sweating it out either as I do trust these guys knowing where their ties are.

If I was betting my paycheck on it, I'd say Nebraska, Mizzou, and Rutgers are the first movers. The next step is the Big 12/Pac 10 mess, and that's the driver to figuring out whether ND finally approaches the Big 10 who then reach 16 with Syracuse.

THIS. Everyone that thinks this is just going to be simple and clean with a bow wrapped around it is delusional. There are going to be the inevitable lawsuits from schools that felt left out, and just that will have the potential to throw a huge monkey wrench in time lines. Each additional change to conference structures is going to be exponential in the time it will take to make the changes, not incremental.

The same could be said about Mizzou and Nebraska. Those three schools have been absolutely silent other than to say that 'they are members of XXX conference and plan to stay that way'. The lack of concern of these schools amongst all of this turmoil has made it clear that they're not concerned with where they will land.

I guess I don’t understand the ND logic, why would they choose membership in a 16 team Big-10 instead of a 12 team Big-10? To me their only choice is between being the 12th team or staying independent. What am I missing?

Absolutely silent except for rumors on message boards?!?

ND is in a much better position to stay independent than to be the 12th team in the Big 10. However, if it becomes apparant that the Big 10 and Pac 10 will expand to 16, ND has to join or risk the possibility that they will not be included in the championship power structure.

Absolutely silent on the public front. There's plenty of info being passed out privately.

Because all things being equal Notre Dame wants the status quo. The only motivating factor to get them to move to the Big Ten is that there is enough movement that they realize the Big East is in trouble, the conferences are going toward 16-team mega conferences and they are going to be left on the outside looking in. They don't want to be the the only team moving, they will only move if other teams force their hand.

I really don't understand all this will they/won't they with Nebraska. If offered, Nebraska is going to the Big Ten. I think the only scenario in which Nebraska turns down an offer is if the Big 12/South agreed to some concessions, and they already said no. Tom Osbourne has been griping about the Big 12 championship game going to Texas too much, and when they awarded the next three title games to Dallas last week, that was an F-U to Nebraska.

I really don't doubt that Notre Dame, Nebraska, Missouri and Rutgers have invites in place and it's just a matter of dotting the Is and crossing the Ts, especially in Notre Dame's case. If the Big Ten needs Syracuse or Pitt to make it easier to get Notre Dame, that slot is available. If Notre Dame says no, you go to 14 and leave two slots open for Notre Dame to change its mind.

Don't think that was me...but to echo what Logan said, pretty much every message board guy thinks they have the inside scoop based on the folks on the board tied to the athletic department. Pretty much impossible for them all to be right.

SU AD comes into my work pretty often, haven't seen him this week tho

This is a great scenario for Syracuse. Losing Rutgers doesn't kill the Big East, hell, it makes it stronger even if they don't replace them. It still keeps them in position to back the Big East but keep it's options open to go to another conference if there's more shakeups.

Yeah, but there is no way the status quo survives. It looks as though Delaney has two plans’ here;

1.ND joins as the 12th team and he’s done
2.Blow up the Big-East and make ND join as the 16th

One way or the other, he’s walking away with ND in his conference. Does ND really think he’s bluffing on option #2?

Maybe it just comes down to school politics. The ND admin’s know that it’s best to be the 12th team, but they can’t look like they caved to the Big-10’s demands so they will have to be drug into the league kicking and screaming.

And if that's the case, isn't the NU/MU thing moving too fast for them to be able to make that a believeable scenario?

I think there is some faulty logic involved in the notion of the Big Ten blowing up the Big East to force ND's hand. ND is in the Big East for all sports aside from football. If the Big Ten takes two schools, there'd still be 14 BE basketball schools left. It only potentially becomes a threat to ND if more dominoes fall and the ACC/SEC start inviting Big East schools as well. Even then, Big East basketball will very likely still exist after all of this - none of this will effect Georgetown, Villanova, Seton Hall, St. John's, Providence, Depaul, and Marquette which is all ND is really concerned about as a non-football member.

ND's hand could be forced by big changes, but it'd have more to do with being left out of the new power structure and missing out on the financial windfall of super conferences running their own networks, etc.

Well some sort of "exclusivity period" for ND to coincide with the Big XII ultimatum may be the way to look at it. Tell us by X date, or we are going ahead with Plan B. That seems plausible. Whether it is effective is another question.

I'll make one prediction. There is going to be a book written about this someday with all of the back room dealing, back stabbing, and the real story on this stuff. . . and it'll be one hell of a read.

A few things interest me in all of this:

1) CU, for obvious reasons. If Baylor were to force their way into the PAC 10 over CU, suddenly CU jumps from a power conference to the MWC. Not that this would be horrible thing given how CU sports is going, but what a disaster that would be money wise for the university.

2) Kansas. You are talking about an ELITE basketball program and a football program that had made some strides. Where the hell do they go? The Big East?

3) I said this earlier in the thread: If CU is offered the PAC 10, they are gone. They would have been gone before all of this talk started.

That might work for ND, but doesn't that leave NU and MU vulnerable?

Thought this was a really good piece on the whole deal:

Conference expansion and Big Ten, Pac-10: The czar is back with new vision – College Gridiron 365 Blog – Orlando Sentinel

Money. Colorado probably would have been in the PAC-10 already expect that they didn't have a suitable partner. If the Big-12 stays intact (other then CU), Utah and Colorado join the PAC-10

Transcripts released from Big 12 meetings..........

Adventures of the Big 12: Twelve Angry Men - Bring On The Cats

That's a little funny.

Welcome to the MWC Baylor

Baylor University || Baylor Nation

You know...all this BS from the other conferences is making me hate them even more.

Just make a fucking decision and move on people!