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Not sure I agree with this line of thinking. At this point where we all seem clueless about the doors it would be easy to put a vote on it and claim ignorance or more likely to lie about voting green if they have found a different door is bad for village. Plus with room effects unknown we don't know if the negative consequences of going into a bad room will be immediately known. |
Votes as of post #101:
1 - Crimson Fox - Autumn (82) 2 - Zinto - Narcizo (84), ntndeacon (100) 1 - Darth Vilus - mckerney (86) 1 - Autumn - PackerFanatic (97) |
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I've been trying to think of what win conditions could be for the inferno hunter. First thought was maybe he needs to reclaim the device, but then why the options to deactivate or detonate, which I assume could destroy it. Could he be a cultist who wants to kill as many villagers as possible and wins with the wolves? Or can the wolves convert him for another kill chance? Can't say I have a good read on the role and whether or not he's on our side. |
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I agree there are probably more than 4 wolves. I'd guess two teams of 3, or a team of 3 and a team of 2 that's more powerful with the possibility of the inferno hunter helping the wolves. Plus they have the benefit of a neutral that doesn't care about killing wolves as much as he does surviving. |
Good morning all
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Yeah today's door choice is going to be much like the day one lynch vote - random and un-meaningful today, but potentially huge down the road.
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I had just assumed he was vanilla villager with a special role but Jackal clearly listed him as neutral. So that's very interesting. Going to have to keep an open mind about this one. |
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Forgive me but what does UTR mean? |
The first is green, has the letter A and a number sequence: 3 8 1 8 8 2 4 7 8 3
The second is blue, has the letter B and a number sequence: 5 2 7 8 7 3 3 8 1 7 The third is orange, has the letter C and a number sequence: 8 4 5 6 7 9 8 6 9 4[/quote] Anyone else notice these are 9 digit numbers? Like phone numbers? Hold on, some quick google fu. 381 area code is Texas. It includes Fort Worth and Abilene. 527 is upper Michigan, Grand Rapids and such, on up. 845 is New York State. Just above NYC There are about, what, 275 areas codes in use? What are the chances that all three random 9 digit numbers would be area codes? It can't be that good. |
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Under The Radar |
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:eek: Did NTN just vote someone for being UTR? My werewolf-playing life is now complete. |
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If I remember correctly he was listed as a villager until last night. Makes me think something's been tacked on to balance things up some. My mind shall be kept open for about three days and then it's open-season with the whacko-theories. |
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Anyone else notice these are 9 digit numbers? Like phone numbers? Hold on, some quick google fu. 381 area code is Texas. It includes Fort Worth and Abilene. 527 is upper Michigan, Grand Rapids and such, on up. 845 is New York State. Just above NYC There are about, what, 275 areas codes in use? What are the chances that all three random 9 digit numbers would be area codes? It can't be that good.[/quote] None of the 10 digit numbers are coming up in google though. If it was meaningful I would expect the whole number to be meaningful. I mean what is significant about those three areas? My first instinct was it's some kind of map. There are a lot of repeating numbers (8's, 3's 7's) I wonder if those aren't a certain type of room or represent a physical feature of some kind. |
ugh, quoting didn't work properly. the last 2 lines are mine, the rest is Abe's
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Fair point but I think a wolf is less likely to pile on like that just because it's draws attention and you average wolf is going to shun most sorts of attention on day one. Most villagers are not going to worry about that sort of attention and just do what they feel like. But if we are suspecting shenanighans then someone should keep track of the claimed door votes. |
just for clarification purposes, is the door vote secret via PM to Jackal?
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That post was brought to you in association with the word "attention".
I need to use a thesarus. |
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This is n't the first time it has happened. But the ironicy is not lost on me either. |
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They're 10 digits. I tried looking at the numbers in a simple alpha translation (1 = A, 5= E, etc), but not dice. I also looked at the numbers in different bases. Info is below, but didn't seem to give any insight. Green A - 3 8 1 8 8 2 4 7 8 3 CHAHHBDGC Hex - E39EA44F Oct - 34347522117 Bin - 11100011100111101010010001001111 sum: 52 Blue B - 5 2 7 8 7 3 3 8 1 7 EBGHGCCHAG Hex - 13AA315F9 Oct - 47250612771 Bin - 100111010101000110001010111111001 sum: 51 Orange C - 8 4 5 6 7 9 8 6 9 4 HDEFGIHFID Hex - 1F81081E6 Oct - 77004100746 Bin - 111111000000100001000000111100110 sum: 66 I didn't see a pattern in any of the numbers as individual digits, but since there are 10 digits, they could be grouped as singles, pairs or in 2 groups of 5s....or they could be uneven groups as well. If there is a pattern, and if it is consistent between rooms, it might just take some more data for it to clear up. |
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I don't think its a bad idea to keep track, but we have to remember the wolves can spread out their claimed votes and then vote together in secret. I think the most valuable part of keeping track would be to get an idea of who may have lied about their vote if it goes different than rhe public vote, though it will only work if enough people make their votes known. |
In the movie, a number that is of a prime power was a sign of a trap room. We don't know whether this will be used or not. but that is something we probably need to calculate.
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Checking in before I go back to bed.
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That's what I get for counting when I just woke up! Of course, I simply misstated, ten digit numbers are still phone numbers like my front desk number 313 577 9852. 10 digits. Analysis is still good, just misstated the numbers cause of sleepiness. We still have a Texas Door, a NY Door and a Michigan door. |
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If 1 is your base note, like C, and 8 is upper C, then they also sound horrible. No top 40 hits there. |
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I was wondering if he had changed his play style while I was out when I saw that! Nice to see he hasn't. |
Finally get a minute to check in.. villager here.
I am leaning towards orange for my room of choice but if some of you math geniuses figure out safe room then I'm all for that. Back to work for a bit. I should be able to check in frequently. |
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Whoops, I accidentally edited instead of quoting. I had meant to quote and hit the wrong button. Sorry!!!! |
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Yes. |
To clarify, the "neutral" roles count as villagers, they merely have the opportunity to make choices that impact the village positively or negatively. There is no conversion in this game, nor do the neutral roles have the opportunity to contact wolves.
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I've got no clue on the door, but living in MI, I'll pick blue. As far as a vote for lynch
Vote DV |
Hello everyone
I think it is useless to keep track of who votes for what door because the information will most likely get so confusing with anyone being able to lie and the vote count being a secret. |
The main reason is we will most likely be chasing our tails as the wolves manipulate how we interpret the information. It is not a bad idea to try and get a sense of what door is best for us and trying to move as many votes that way as we can.
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I think the one benefit though is that if we have a public vote from everyone it may be able to provide something to go on to figure out who is lying. |
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That settles things on the hunter then, he's one of us and he can blow us up. |
Mirror, mirror on the wall, who is the prettiest of them all?
An image flickers on one of the walls:  ... FAULTY MIRROR, THE ANSWER IS ME! (loud shattering noise) NOW WHO'S MAGICAL!! |
Natalie Portman isn't even close to the prettiest of them all.
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that isn't her most flattering pic, but she is close!
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Wait, so Natalie Portman is the mirror?
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You can pretty much make that argument about anything in the game. I don't see any reason for everyone not to state which door they're picking. Then, if it turns out we've picked a door different from that which you would expect from the stated votes we have something to look at. If not then nothing lost. Only works if no-one's coy about stating which door they pick though. This doesn't preclude figuring out how to "crack" the door code (if there is one and it's possible) and will probably go hand-in-hand with it. |
As of now, I'm planning to go "Orange" on the door. Haven't thought about it too deeply - wasn't able to pick out any immediate patterns based on the number crunching others have already done.
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At least it was Jennifer Love Hewitt |
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Chance that all three 10 digit numbers have an area code in the first three digits: Assuming 275 Area Codes. 2% That's not likely random. |
Tell you what, I am going to call those numbers. I want to see if they are in service or something.
Green A Texas - Not in Service Blue B Michigan - Not in Service Orange C New York - Residence, lady answered, not a company |
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:eek: You didn't just call a bunch of numbers from a werewolf game? Actually, I'm fascinated. What did you say? Did you ask her if she was Mrs Jackal? Or if her door leads to horrible torture and death? |
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That is awesome. |
Abe - where are you getting that 2% figure from?
There are 900 possible 3 digit area codes (area codes starting with 0 or 1 are not valid) and there are about 400 in use (although less for US residential as that includes all of North America and non-residential use) |
Sorry, that should read 800 possible. When you look that Jackal didn't use any 0's and very few 1's, it's about a 50/50 shot that any given starting sequence would be a valid area code, no?
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275/1000 = .275*.275*.275 = .019something
But I'm not sure where to go with that information - even after Abe placing phone calls, how does that help us choose a better door? |
I'm leaning towards going Orange simply because it stands out a bit from the others to me, and I'm assuming that one door will be good with 2 being bad to differing degrees.
BTW, that's awesome that you made those calls Abe. |
Cool. Yeah I'd argue that it's closer to 10% but it's still very interesting and if we get more area codes tomorrow then Abe could have broken this thing open if we can make a connection.
That being said, I don't know what it adds to today's discussion, unless somebody knows some reason that those states might be significant. Something to do with the original movie? |
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