Just to reinforce the point. Yang got a whole 3 mins of air time which was the least amount for any candidate in the two debates.

I laughed out loud at this for a good three minutes. If Trump could see the writing on the wall, he couldn't read it.


I love how often people write off the dem candidates because of their flaws. Name one flaw that any Democrat running has that is bigger than any one "disqualifying" flaw that Trump has. I will wait....


The fact is that Trump proved that there is no such thing as a disqualifying flaw *if* you have enough of a fired up base. Warren claimed Native American heritage. So? Trump bragged about sexually assaulting women. Harris was a tough on crime prosecutor that some find was racially harsh. So? Trump calls White supremacist "fine people." Biden has a host of issues from the Obama administration all the way back to his positions when he was a senator. Trump has put children in modern concentration camps.



I understand that we are in the process of picking one candidate to fight Trump. But I will say if we pick the weakest of this group, it will still be a better alternative to what we have. I don't know if who is picked is as important as how they will run. Any one of them will be better, but will their campaign be better than the Trump machine? Can we overcome the expertise of the GOP messaging operation to explain to the people how they are being mislead against their own interest?

That second thing is the tricky part. Republicans can shoulder minor "scandal" much better than Democrats can. Partly because they're more likely to vote no matter what. But even some Dem voters seem to bail more quickly. Hillary dropped in the polls when that last email memo came out. That wouldn't have been a blip for a Republican. Harris could win the nomination, be leading in the General election polls, but then lose at the end because someone leaks some memo from 10 years ago where she advocated for a harsh sentence for a black drug dealer using too-casual language.

I'd alter that slightly, if the people in your party don't care. That's going to be the fatal flaw for any Dem Trump-like approach. They'll be an endless stream of concerned Dems on TV throughout the election.

According to the MSM they are not concentration camps. Haven't you seen all the attacks on AOC?

Obviously Trump is a unique political figure.
He has portrayed himself as the ultimate outsider, so all his flaws just prove to his base hes is, indeed, not a polished Washington type.
Everyone else was willing to overlook it all to try something new.
Will it work for a second time?
IDK

But no Democrat is going to get that pass from their base or general electorate.

That is part of what has to change. If you like the message, you are going to have to stop nit-picking the messenger. If only a flawless candidate can win, then we have already lost.




Minor scandal? How about super-major scandal? They seem to be able to shrug off major crimes without blinking.



That's why I go back to that it is going to take a candidate to really catch fire and make people ignore the flaws. Of course, Democrats are horrible at that, but then you could argue Obama did just that. There were flaws there, but he was so charismatic that people ignore them. Can we find another? Is Harris that person? I wonder. She is definitely the first candidate I would consider financially supporting. I don't have much money to give, so I am holding out till I feel confident in someone.



In the end, I am still going to say it is all going to be in messaging. Can someone really spark the imagination to a point that their weaknesses and flaws are ignored? If you say no, we might as well get ready for four more years of Trump.

This at least partly due to the fact that GOP voters have traditionally feared Dem policy more than Dems have feared GOP policy. It will be interesting to see how much, if any, Trump has changed that dynamic.

The First Democratic Debate In Five Charts | FiveThirtyEight


According to Fivethirtyeight, the three big winners of the debates where Harris, Castro, and Booker. I am in favor of any of those three taking over the top spot. Catro was someone I favored early, but I wondered if he could get pull himself out of the pack. Booker was one of my favorites 4 years ago, but has been underwhelming since.

The 2nd debate had a big impact on the bettors. Harris is now the favorite on PredictIt, with Biden sliding to 3rd here and there behind Warren. Poor Beto is back tied with the longshot masses.

Harris with Castro as VP would be a strong ticket I think

Im watching Warren. Still turned off about the whole naive american thing, but she didnt talk about Trump according to the 538 chart. Good for her.

Maybe someone who hates corps and has ideas and isnt concerned about Trump may work.

I need to look at her more closely. Still not happy about the native american thing.

Ideas wise, Warren may be the strongest candidate right now.

Personally, the Native American thing doesn't bother me at all. I see why it would for others, but it has no impact on her ability to be an effective President. She cracks my top 5 at the moment, but definitely sits behind Harris and Booker. Probably Sanders and maybe Buttigieg as well. I want to see more from Buttigieg. His knowledge on the issues and ability to own his mistakes impressed me.

Biden reminds me a lot of Jeb!.

But the voters, especially olds and blacks, don't seem to be pulling away yet.

While he states:

He still shows Biden's performance as "somewhat good" in his chart.
???

Harris destroyed him.

I think it's worth pointing out that this happened to Trump in '16. No nominee in modern America has gotten anything approaching the criticism, unwillingness to endorse, etc. that he got from his own party. And he still won. It's interesting to me to see whether or not that was just a blip, or if that kind of thing just doesn't matter as much anymore.

Somewhat good was based on the morning consult poll after the debate. He still underperformed relative to his pre-debate favorability.

Yes. And Trump will win again. And I look forward to it! As do millions of others ...

Very much this, the GOP and its media are extremely good at creating fear, and have created the environment where facts no longer matter in a conversation. This is extremely good for convincing people that they have to show up at the polls or Hillary will start a nuclear war, or Bernie will turn america into a communist state within a month of getting into office.

Democrats suck at this, or at finding any alternative to motivate voter turnout.

Dems had what they need in Obama.

The party powers think Biden is the best choice. Dem nomination is chosen, unless an Obama-type candidate steps up.

Trump beats Biden. And the dems in charge cant figure that out.

Sure, until he won the nomination. At that point the electeds all started getting in line, and now they can hardly contain their glee for Trump.

dola

Just to memorialize how awful this G-20 trip was,

Trump joked with Putin about killing journalists and interfering with elections

Trump smiled with bin Salman and didn't mention the butchering of Kashoggi

Trump unilaterally promised to lift national security restrictions on Huawei products

Trump clearly didn't understand concepts as simple as western liberalism and school bussing

Trump begged Kim Jong Un to meet him and validated his leadership by walking into North Korea

Trump had his daughter with him at all most every meeting

Trump sent his National Security Advisor to Mongolia and went to N. Korea with Tucker Carlson instead

Trump took shots at both Germany and Japan.

With the exception of some tweets, nobody in either party is going to do anything about it.

Except Biden won't win the nomination.

First off really Trump beats Biden?
Secondly, yes I still think Biden wins the nomination in the end. Otherwise, yes Trump in a easy win I fear with D's staying ho e or voting third party.

I think Trump/Biden would be a tossup, but I think once we get through the primaries he'd be one of the weaker options and easier matchups for Trump.

Biden dropped 10 points after the first debate and it's not getting easier for him from here. The fact that his platform really doesn't match up well with what excites Dem voters is going to sink him. Biden and Hickenlooper are both running on platforms from the 90s. The only thing keeping Biden in the race at this point is his attachment to Obama.

I think people forget that you can win by exciting your base and getting them to turn out to the polls. There is always this notion that the only way is to go for the moderates and independents - as if we already have like 99% voting rates.

I'm laughing at all the comments about people not being able to beat Trump, or the Dems will lose unless they nominate this candidate. Almost anybody can beat Trump. He won his first election with narrow victories in three states. Let's not act like he's Ronald Reagan. There are certainly people who have a better chance than others, but any of the frontrunners can beat Trump.

Ok, now I get it.

I generally agree with this. His image whitewashing of late is mysterious to me - voters have had chances to see him before, and pretty universally said "no thanks." I guess he feels to many disaffected Dems like the last best alternative to HRC last go-round, and he's benefiting from some gauzy Obama halo effect, too. But Biden is exactly the guy we saw this week - dropping mentions about hos five years ago it was "fine" to make gay jokes. THAT is who Joe Biden is, as a politician, and as a campaigner. He's actually a weak candidate, in most ways past the "want to have a beer with him" category.

Exactly. Running in 2016 and campaigning on 4 more years of Obama was his chance to win the Presidency, and even then I think HRC was dead set on a 2016 run & it would've been a war between the Obama and Clinton machine in the primary, (and Sanders never would've gotten the space to turn into a quasi contender for the Dem nomination so he would've been like the Green Party nominee.)

I can't figure out yet if Biden is exactly where Jeb Bush was 4 years ago or exactly where Rudy Giuliani was 4 years ago, but either way my gut says it's more likely he drops out without winning a state than that he wins the nomination - and that's while acknowledging he's very well positioned to win in Iowa & a lock to win Delaware whenever they hold their primary.

Biden doesnt get the young voters out.

They will think: "Oh no, another old dude. Im not voting."

Young voters win a dem a white house.

Biden/Trump gets Trump the win.

I think the "excitement" factor has nothing to do with who the Dems put up. It will be about "voting out Trump."

The most passion that will be scene in this race will be hatred for Trump. And that will drive voters, young and old, to the ballot box. "I voted out that asshole Trump" will probably become a thing in late 2020, like some weird badge of honor.

The candidates that generally appeal the most to the younger voters are the utterly insane ones, that will in turn drive more people out to vote against them, even if it is Trump.

I agree, but wasnt Obama an outlier? Who did he get out? Surely the young voters came out in record numbers.
The GOP votes. The dems dont.

Unique moment. First black man to be a serious presidential contender, who ran on his charisma, of which he had plenty. That was inevitably going to draw out massive voter numbers.

Can't trade on the "vote for a minority" wagon again and expect great turnout just from that, and I don't think "vote for the first female president" has as much prestige to it since Hillary lost. Don't get me wrong, it'll be a big deal when it eventually happens, but I just don't think you'll get historic turnout just playing the 'vote for a woman' angle now.

I don't think you can assume what will happen in 2020 based off what has happened in past elections. We have never had a president like Trump and never been in a political climate like todays. I think in the past younger people have looked at politics as an "old persons" game. That favored the GOP. I think Obama, and Bill Clinton to a lesser degree, moved that needle a bit but we will see a huge shift in 2020 of young voters, if for no other reason then to get Trump out of office. I think young people, women especially, are tired of old, white men making decisions for them and will vote whomever the Dems choose just to shift the status quo.

If that does happen I think the Dems are in for a nice long run, and the GOP will look back on their loyalty to Trump as the death blow. If Trump wins, I think we are pretty much screwed as a country and democracy. It would show young people don't care, and the GOP tactics work.

So that's why Trump got 3 million more votes than Clinton


Oh wait...

Biden has been a bad campaigner twice before. Maybe the reality is that he's just not good enough to win the big game. Everybody decided to forget about his past campaigns after 2016, but so far he's acting more like Jeb! than Obama.

I think it's fantasy to think young voters are coming out in significant numbers. I don't see that happening no matter what. Look at all the #NotMyPresident protests after Trump was elected - most of the people marching in them at college campuses across the country didn't vote. Every cycle we are told this is the time young people are going to take control of the ballot box - every cycle it doesn't happen.

Trump will almost certainly lose, but that won't be why.

Do you recall having as many demonstrations as we had after Trump was elected, then the presidency to arguably be worse than everyone thought?

Youth turnout went up about ten points from 2014 to 2018, with basically all of the increased turnout going to Dems. If there's a similar jump from 2016 to 2020, Trump is toast.

Given what I know about them and the potential attacks they face in a general, I can't see Warren, Harris or Sanders winning against Trump. I think Biden would be a tossup as he could get some of the "white guys in the midwest/south who don't like Trump" vote - but he wouldn't be as strong a candidate. Booker is the one that intrigues me - I think he would have a legit shot of rallying the younger voters. Outside of that, I just can't see any of these people winning. Then again, I didn't think Trump would win the republican nomination (and the general) - so take all this with a pound of sale :D

The last thing I will say - republicans vote on "fear of the opponent", democrats vote on "how inspiring their guy/girl is". So a bad nominee doesn't hurt republicans nearly as much as democrats - especially if a someone that can be branded a clear republican villain like Warren, Sanders or Harris is nominated.

Dems will get more voters out than R's. They did in 2016 and millennials are skewing heavily D while the Boomer part of the electorate is starting to shrink. If turnout stays high as it did in the midterms then the Dem candidate likely wins unless they really screw things up again. If they screw things up then it's going to mirror 2016 and come down to how independents fall.


Trump's biggest flaw going into the 2020 election is he governs to what gets his base excited and never really goes outside that comfort zone. He's going to run up the score in strong red states, but unless something changes quickly he's going to struggle in some states he won last time.

Not in the right spots though. And that is where the candidate has to stir up support.

I think this is a good point. The democrats can't just use a message that resonates with the coasts. As Ryan said, you can't forget about the midwest and the south. Winning New York and California by a combined 6 million votes again won't matter if the democrats lose Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin and Florida like Hillary did. They need a candidate that can connect in those areas - and I can't see Harris, Warren or Sanders doing that.

Sanders certainly could - I knew quite a few working class Republicans who were hoping he'd be nominated so they could vote for him. Warren can hit the same points - they speak to the workers who feel screwed over by their corporate overlords and that resonates powerfully.

Harris is a bit of an odd duck just in general. She's not establishment and she's not progressive. She's this bizarre halfway state that I can't really describe.

So you are saying with a straight face, Biden is the most inspiring Democratic candidate?

BTW

Kamala Harris pummeled Biden.
Last poll I saw
Biden -10
Harris +8

General consensus she won night 1

Still in the running, did not make a big impact.

Most googled candidate after first night, people were curious

Quiet debate, but nailed his closing remarks.
Seems to be an "anyone but Bernie" movement brewing.

I think I did fairly good.

Buttigieg is in a similar strange space. He's semi-progressive in his policies, but speaks far more pragmatically. Yet his main talking point is changing the electoral system - like in the getting more people to vote, ending gerrymandering sort of way. I'm not sure that turns out a lot. He does have amazing personal charisma though.

90% were looking for pictures of her in a camouflage bikini.

I'll just remind everyone that in the summer of 2016, Clinton (13 points) and Sanders (12 points) had big leads over Trump in the polls.