Chief, are you able to clarify if this means one kill or one kill attempt?

No I don't see that.

As far as we know they are all wolves and this is an elaborate attempt to further confuse us. So yeah I agree with Raven, this doesn't clear anyone.

Lynch Leader

I thought the roles said the medic was a duke role not a hunter role..

Correct.

Agreed. font baits Vaimes into a shot knowing MartinD has her covered? Medic could be wolf or village, if I read the rules correctly.

correct

Yes, you are correct. I somehow got myself switched around. I'll go back and edit.

MARTIND is a Duke, not a Hunter.

That's an interesting thought, too. Sure did happen very quickly on D2.

I agree. We just know their H/D role, not their wolf/villager role.

I have to think about this more, but something def seems off to me about this whole situation. Seems a bit early in the game to utilize this sort of play, but not if someone wanted to get scanned (Cunning). Who would be the logical person to scan of these 3 now?

I think that two of the 3 could have coordinated this, maybe all 3? Though I really need to think about it some more.

Vaimes gave font more than adequate warning before he shot

This gave martin time to protect font

Not sure what to make of that but this whole things just smells rotten.

So MartinD being a Duke would now just duke out of a lynch. Once we analyze this, he seems like he would need to be a logical hunter kill and not a lynch vote, if the thought is he is wolf.

I think I lean to all 3 being involved somehow. Vaimes doesn't seem the type to be baited.

Of course, font is a master baiter.

We know if Martin becomes LL he will duke

and

A hunter cant take out Vaimes without also dying..

-----

the obvious play to me is to lynch vaimes, see how that turns out and then shoot martin tomorrow based on the results.. deal with font afterwards..

but if this is just a coincidence...

I mean, the odds of that are just...

0.9%

Exactly!

Ah, so this is why she's been ignoring me.

I guess we'll just have to kill her toMorrow.

Running through various scenarios of how that all unfolded to see what what I can come up with, and there are a few interesting possibilities.

I'll wait for someone else to point them out, I'm sure Narc will jump on what I am thinking as soon as he catches up.

That's what I was thinking.


She didn't even try to hint that I shouldn't shoot her, or anything. It's baffling.

Do you really think there's a cunning, brutal, AND the medic is a wolf?

That seems highly improbable

But I do think we'll need some clarity on font/vaimes.. and I'm curious to see what Martin says

It's possible.. can't rule it out.

Remember timmae was the black ajah bodyguard in the WoT game. If everything was handed out randomly it's definitely a possibility.

I'm not sure MartinD could have picked up on the real threat on his own in time to protect font. I don't know about Vaimes, but I think font and MartinD had some coordination. Or Vaimes and MartinD. All 3 coordinating? Hmm.

Also, would a wolf Medic burn his ability so soon and for the confusion? Unless they have items to pass around.

I'm never one to completely clear people, just saying I find it unlikely. I'd rather hear what Martin has to say than speculate because I want to hear his reasoning and judge it.

Why not?

Because he's still a hunter, just without ammo. Unless I missed something in the rules.

Hunters can't be shot?

If a hunter shoots a hunter they both die.

Btw if this is a coordinated effort among 2-3 of them, then they're clearly holding enough items and/or there are 4 wolves, and they've come up with a plan to get to parity really quickly. Or at least get them close enough to parity that they'd only need the final wolf to get through 1-2 days.

That'd be ballsy if all three are wolves. I expect that one of font/vaimes won't last much longer, whether via lynch or kill. Though, they would still have 2 more hunter/duke moves to potentially play with.

Agreed. You stated my point better than I.

Gotcha.

Chief, is this an absolute or can items nullify this rule?

Some of the items could stop a kill from happening but none of them seem to stop a hunter/hunter duke/duke double death.

To clarify, only items that prevent the kill BEFOREHAND would prevent Hunter/Hunter or Duke/Duke. Think we're saying the same thing...just wanted to make sure.

Seriously, nothing? Tough crowd...

Jeez, a lot to sort out. I'll start with the fun part (kind of like a logic puzzle)/


font is the key to that whole mess (sort of).

If she is a villager that pretty much clears up MartinD (no way a wolf makes that save).

If she is a wolf, well then things get a little iffy. It doesn't clear or condemn MartinD in that case.


Okay, let's think this through:

The possibilities are:

A
font village
MartinD village
Vaimes village

B
font village
MartinD village
Vaimes wolf

C
font village
MartinD wolf
Vaimes village

D
font village
MartinD wolf
Vaimes wolf

E
font wolf
MartinD village
Vaimes village

F
font wolf
MartinD village
Vaimes wolf

G
font wolf
MartinD wolf
Vaimes village

H
font wolf
MartinD wolf
Vaimes village


(think I got all the combos)

We should be able to rule out C and D. If either of those are the play then MartinD deserves to win for that bold move.

Just saw I have H incorrect as far as the possibilities go, that should have all of them as wolves in that scenario.

no triple wolf possibility? that's already been floated, though i find it unlikely

heh, there it is, continue

Hunters can't shoot and kill other Hunters without dying, and Dukes can't Duke to other Dukes without dying.

With that said, I can't see H being a high probability with the wolves starting out with 2 villagers killed on day one. Why put themselves on our radar?

Changed to correct my mistake:

A
font village
MartinD village
Vaimes village

B
font village
MartinD village
Vaimes wolf

C
font village
MartinD wolf
Vaimes village

D
font village
MartinD wolf
Vaimes wolf

E
font wolf
MartinD village
Vaimes village

F
font wolf
MartinD village
Vaimes wolf

G
font wolf
MartinD wolf
Vaimes village

H
font wolf
MartinD wolf
Vaimes wolf

I am back to the game... sorry I missed most of the day. Crazy long meetings. I am reading through and will post some thoughts later on. I'll be on a bit tonight but tomorrow will be a more productive day for me here.

Sorry, F needs to be red too.

A
font village
MartinD village
Vaimes village

B
font village
MartinD village
Vaimes wolf

C
font village
MartinD wolf
Vaimes village

D
font village
MartinD wolf
Vaimes wolf

E
font wolf
MartinD village
Vaimes village

F
font wolf
MartinD village
Vaimes wolf

G
font wolf
MartinD wolf
Vaimes village

H
font wolf
MartinD wolf
Vaimes wolf

No way that F happens so I made that red.

Whatever the truth, kudos for the most intriguing & challenging scenario I've yet to encounter in WW.

Crud, nevermind. I need to rethink this whole thing. Forgot about the cultist, adds another layer of possibilities.

So the question still remains, why did vaimes shoot font.

A. He suspects something about her
B. No idea why he would out himself like that
E. He suspects or knows something about her
G. Same as above.

Either way I see almost no chance of both font and Vaimes being wolves since the only scenario that would be the case is if they were all wolves.

That would also mean that no chance that font is a wolf if Vaimes is the cultist.


I have thought myself into a confused corner. Adding the cultist really twists possibilities around. I see one Occam's Razor scenario (the way I see it at least) before I realized there is a cultist.

i dont think the cultist puts themselves in a lynch scenario like this. There is a reasonable chance he doesn't make it to the next night kill based on how we interpret everything.

He also had to be certain he wouldn't die, too. Which means he:

a) just believed font's Duke claim
b) had validation of font's Duke claim
c) knew font was protected so it didn't matter

B is out, vaimes is a hunter and the bully is dead. Only the bully hunter could identify whether font was a duke or hunter.

I feel better about Vaimes at this point. I see no scenario where a wolf play would be to basically announce their intention in thread that long before making the play.

Liking the new blood we have in these games. The games aren't turning into Excel vote analysis 101. ;)

Unless Vaimes and font could communicate. Might have eliminated the Vaimes/font both wolves possibility earlier in analysis, if so I apologize.

DOLA, I see the point now. Hunter/Duke kill doesn't kill the Hunter, just outs him. My mistake.

Vaimes... is this what tipped you off to font? I don't like the fact that you shot without gaining much additional input. Ballsy move if it worked but now medic is lost.

Martin, can you explain your protect order? Gut read or some other reason?

Wow, &#@% is getting real already.

I think simplest assumption is that all are villagers, Vaimes thought he had a read on Font, and was rather sure she was a Duke, so figured there was little risk--it would at least help him with his minor win. You've got to assume there are going to be a handful of "well, this will be fun" moves in this game. Martin had to pick someone, so maybe he just figured Font was a possible target being so vocal, and hinting she was a Duke.

This is not to rule out more nefarious scenarios, but I think we get ourselves in a bad spot if we don't consider the more innocent possibilities. Unfortunately if everyone involved is a villager we have lost out on a shot and a save that could be useful towards endgame, so I hope villagers in general don't insist on making these kind of moves every day.

Looking at the JAG kill, I want to look at Cheekimonk today in the vote. JAG was suspicious of cheek and the vote only moved away from him because he wasn't around. The wolves may have figured JAG might be back on him tomorrow.

vote cheekimonk

Or both are wolves so Vaimes knew the duke claim was real.

Well, for a Cultist, getting killed is a win. but I agree that with the possibility of conversoin this cultist is probably going to play it more conservative.

fontisian has been ignoring my threats to kill her and I thought it was weird she wasn't even taunting me or anything, she blatantly claimed Duke so I was fairly certain we wouldn't both die, and I get the satisfaction of almost killing her and shutting her up for a bit.

Whee.

I lean towards Vaimes good. I think the simplest is MartinD and font as wolves (or font wolf and MartinD cultist). Sees Vaimes basically saying that he is going after font and protects her. Just seems like a lot of coincidences to have all three as village.

Finding out MartinD is a huge key here. If he is wolf then we know with absolute certainty that font is a wolf.

I agree with the cultist statement. I know the game that I played the most out there and free was when I was a cultist, knowing that even my death would help my cause.

The rules say "Only one Hunter kill will be allowed per day."

Since font was not killed, does that mean another Hunter can shoot today?

I don't know if I'd go so far to absolute, but I suppose I agree, it would be very surprising if a wolf martin was using a protect on a non-wolf duke, unless there were no wolf dukes. Not impossible, but very unlikely.

Looking back at the voting, this post bugs me. First of all, both Vaimes and jackal hadn't posted in a while (I'll assume Shoveler didn't see Vaimes posts that were just a couple minutes before this). so it seems specious to move because Vaimes isn't around. And this vote was putting Jackal closer to the vote leader, so I'm not sure how that meshes with the comment about not keeping the vote close.

This is also a post i'm not crazy about. I know Narc thinks out loud like me, but this post basically says he doesn't like zinto being pushed in the front, doesn't like jackal being pushed into second, but also doesn't like the idea of Vaimes being duked. Yet he likes Zinto the best. Seems like a lot of dithering without offering any actual candidates.

Raven, why did your vote stay on jackal after you read him as good? I agree that he was more active today and likely would have moved my vote if I was around. Just want to see what your thoughts are.

Font, I'd love to hear why you thought this was a workable idea.

Jackal reads much better based on his posts today than when I read him based on his posts yesterday. I seem to have different reads than others this game but jackal reads good to me.

Okay, tried to get a bunch in becuase I may be gone for a while tomorrow. Hopefully that tides y'all over!

No solid reason other than didn't feel strongly about anyone. Zinto took the lead, but I didn't want to vote for him because he just hosted last game, so I wasn't voting for him. Things escalated on him, so once the last hour came around, changing my vote wouldn't have changed anything.

I'm going with this for now. I don't see a lot of time for MartinD to see the threat to font, know that it was serious, and intervene - burning his medic - unless there was coordination with someone.

vote MartinD

But MartinD is a Duke, so if he's a wolf, he will 100% Duke to a villager. I think we're better off having a hunter shoot him.

I agree and so I'll probably switch when we reason things out tomorrow. But MartinD doesn't know which of us are Dukes so that would still be a risk for him.

That's understandable, as it was random - there isn't much information to go on at this point in the game, so I just picked someone.


Wrong - there is one person I know for sure is a Hunter. If I end up on top in today's lynch vote, I duke it to Vaimes. (Of course, that's assuming that no-one else uses their Duke powers - looking at the rules, an 'unknown tiebreaker' will be used if multiple Duke attempts are made.)

I'm not going to be around for most of the day - will check in for a bit around noon Eastern, then hopefully be around for a bit before/after deadline.

Weird happenings. Instinct tells me that all that is too much of a coincidence to be all villager but who knows? Shit happens. But I have a hard time believing that Martin just happened to protect Font because of random. Then again we wouldn't think anything of it if Vaimes hadn't targeted Font as we wouldn't know about it.

At the moment I'm wondering if Martin is the cultist. The cultist knows the allegiance of the wolves so he protects the wolf who is a duke (I presume that evil are split 2:2 although that could be completely wrong of course) as that's the closest ally the cultist has.

Ideally we would want to find out what font is as that should give us a good read on Martin and Vaimes. Unfortunately we can't kill font today. I shall have to have a think about it.

Day One

13:31 #80 timmae votes cheeki (1)
13:36 #81 Vaimes votes font (1)
13:36 #82 Eagle votes timmae (1)
13:37 #85 Martin votes Shoveler (1)
13:37 #85 Vaimes unvotes Font, votes Timmae (2) / Timmae 2
13:40 #89 JAG vote Jackal (1)
13:48 #95 Shoveler votes Vaimes (1)
13:51 #99 Grover votes Narcizo (1)
14:32 #104 Cheeki votes Raven (1)
14:56 #106 Raven votes Jackal (2) / Timmae, Jackal 2
15:08 #108 Narcizo votes Zinto (1)
15:35 #113 Britrock votes Shoveler (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler 2
15:38 #115 JAG unvotes Jackal (1), votes Raven (1) / Timmae, Shoveler 2
16.51 #134 Jackal votes Grover (1)
18:57 #148 JAG unvotes Raven (0), votes Fonti (1)
20:28 #154 Timmae unvotes cheeki (0), votes Jackal (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler 2
20:00 #163 Zinto votes Vaimes (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
22:52 #178 Bug votes Font (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Font, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
07:06 #187 JAG unvotes Fonti (1) / Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
07:37 #190 Cheeki unvotes Raven (0), votes Fonti (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Font, Shoveler; Vaimes 2
08:03 #197 Jag votes cheeki (1)
08:14 #202 Grover unvotes Narc (0), votes Fonti (3) / Font 3, Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
09:32 #210 Font votes Grover (2) / Font 3, Timmae, Jackal, Grover, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
10:09 #229 Jackal unvotes Grover (1) / Font 3, Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
10:27 #237 Jackal votes timmae (3) / Font, Timmae 3, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
11:54 #264 Autumn votes cheeki (2) / Font, Timmae 3, Jackal, Shoveler, cheeki, Vaimes 2
11:55 #268 Grover unvotes Font (2), votes Martin (1) / Timmae 3, Font, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki, Vaimes 2
12.07 #276 Jackal unvotes timmae (2) / Timmae, Font, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki, Vaimes 2
12:31 #283 Jackal votes Zinto (2) / Timmae, Font, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki, Zinto, Vaimes 2
12:40 #293 Cheeki unvotes Font (1), votes Vaimes (3) / Vaimes 3, Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki, Zinto 2
14:08 #310 Grover unvotes Martin (0)
14:15 #312 Vaimes unvotes Timmae, votes Zinto (3) / Vaimes, Zinto 3, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki 2
14:17 #316 JAG unvotes cheeki (1), votes Zinto (4) / Zinto 4, Vaimes 3, Jackal, Shoveler 2
14:18 #317 Britrock unvotes Shoveler (1), votes Jackal (3) / Zinto 4, Vaimes, Jackal 3
14:21 #321 Fonti unvotes Grover (1), votes Zinto (5) / Zinto 5, Vaimes, Jackal 3
14:26 #326 Grover votes Zinto (6) / Zinto 6, Jackal , Vaimes 3
14:26 #327 Shoveler unvotes Vaimes (2), votes Jackal (4) / Zinto 5, Jackal 4, Vaimes 2
14:59 #343 Autumn unvotes Cheeki (0), votes Zinto (7) / Zinto 7, Jackal 4, Vaimes 2
15:37 #363 Zinto unvotes Vaimes (1) / Zinto 7, Jackal 4

Zinto (7)-- Narcizo (108), The Jackal (283), Vaimes (312), JAG (316), fontisian (321), Grover (326), Autumn (343)
The Jackal (5)-- Raven (106), timmae (154), britrock88 (317), Shoveler (327), MartinD (358)
Vaimes (1)-- cheekimonk (293)
timmae (1)-- EagleFan (82)
fontisian (1)-- MrBug708 (178)

People better check that for fail as it's kind of hard to do. Urgh! I've already seen that I missed Martin's vote on #358.

I think we're seeing the result of the early deadline. It seemed like we were hamstrung by the fact that we couldn't risk getting a new target later on because of the fear that said target would have a power role and wouldn't be around to reveal. I think that's something we will have to address. I particularly don't like the way that timmae faded from contention because of his unavailability. (I've probably benefited from the same argument in the past but I still don't like it).

If Jackal or Vaimes are wolf then you would want to look at the later Zinto voters. If, as I suspect, all are villager then I don't really know how much you can read into things.

Day One

13:31 #80 timmae votes cheeki (1)
13:36 #81 Vaimes votes font (1)
13:36 #82 Eagle votes timmae (1)
13:37 #85 Martin votes Shoveler (1)
13:37 #85 Vaimes unvotes Font, votes Timmae (2) / Timmae 2
13:40 #89 JAG vote Jackal (1)
13:48 #95 Shoveler votes Vaimes (1)
13:51 #99 Grover votes Narcizo (1)
14:32 #104 Cheeki votes Raven (1)
14:56 #106 Raven votes Jackal (2) / Timmae, Jackal 2
15:08 #108 Narcizo votes Zinto (1)
15:35 #113 Britrock votes Shoveler (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler 2
15:38 #115 JAG unvotes Jackal (1), votes Raven (1) / Timmae, Shoveler 2
16.51 #134 Jackal votes Grover (1)
18:57 #148 JAG unvotes Raven (0), votes Fonti (1)
20:28 #154 Timmae unvotes cheeki (0), votes Jackal (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler 2
20:00 #163 Zinto votes Vaimes (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
22:52 #178 Bug votes Font (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Font, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
07:06 #187 JAG unvotes Fonti (1) / Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
07:37 #190 Cheeki unvotes Raven (0), votes Fonti (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Font, Shoveler; Vaimes 2
08:03 #197 Jag votes cheeki (1)
08:14 #202 Grover unvotes Narc (0), votes Fonti (3) / Font 3, Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
09:32 #210 Font votes Grover (2) / Font 3, Timmae, Jackal, Grover, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
10:09 #229 Jackal unvotes Grover (1) / Font 3, Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
10:27 #237 Jackal votes timmae (3) / Font, Timmae 3, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
11:54 #264 Autumn votes cheeki (2) / Font, Timmae 3, Jackal, Shoveler, cheeki, Vaimes 2
11:55 #268 Grover unvotes Font (2), votes Martin (1) / Timmae 3, Font, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki, Vaimes 2
12.07 #276 Jackal unvotes timmae (2) / Timmae, Font, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki, Vaimes 2
12:31 #283 Jackal votes Zinto (2) / Timmae, Font, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki, Zinto, Vaimes 2
12:40 #293 Cheeki unvotes Font (1), votes Vaimes (3) / Vaimes 3, Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki, Zinto 2
14:08 #310 Grover unvotes Martin (0)
14:15 #312 Vaimes unvotes Timmae, votes Zinto (3) / Vaimes, Zinto 3, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki 2
14:17 #316 JAG unvotes cheeki (1), votes Zinto (4) / Zinto 4, Vaimes 3, Jackal, Shoveler 2
14:18 #317 Britrock unvotes Shoveler (1), votes Jackal (3) / Zinto 4, Vaimes, Jackal 3
14:21 #321 Fonti unvotes Grover (1), votes Zinto (5) / Zinto 5, Vaimes, Jackal 3
14:26 #326 Grover votes Zinto (6) / Zinto 6, Jackal , Vaimes 3
14:26 #327 Shoveler unvotes Vaimes (2), votes Jackal (4) / Zinto 5, Jackal 4, Vaimes 2
14:59 #343 Autumn unvotes Cheeki (0), votes Zinto (7) / Zinto 7, Jackal 4, Vaimes 2
15:52 #358 Martin unvotes Shoveler (0), votes Jackal (5) /Zinto 7, Jackal 5, Vaimes 2
15:57 #363 Zinto unvotes Vaimes (1) / Zinto 7, Jackal 4


Zinto (7)-- Narcizo (108), The Jackal (283), Vaimes (312), JAG (316), fontisian (321), Grover (326), Autumn (343)
The Jackal (5)-- Raven (106), timmae (154), britrock88 (317), Shoveler (327), MartinD (358)
Vaimes (1)-- cheekimonk (293)
timmae (1)-- EagleFan (82)
fontisian (1)-- MrBug708 (178)

I freely admit that its a post that has zero value for the village. Then again it has less than zero value for me if I'm a wolf. I'm not used to actually being around during deadline so I didn't really know how to approach the situation of what seemed to be Zinto's likely villagerness.

This bit is kind of interesting. Were I a village medic there's no way that I would protect a random on day two. So, to me, that looks like the work of someone on the baddy side. However I recognise that people don't always think in the same way as I do and that a lot of people don't like to leave a power without using it. So I'm interested in what other people think.

Point 2 of interestingness. Do we automatically not vote for someone we know is a duke because we know that they could shift the vote? I'm kind of thinking that we vote for the person we're most suspicious of and see how they react if they are a duke. If a bad guy knows he's going to be day killed the next day then he's likely to duke the vote anyway, just to mess around with the village.

True. But I don't feel good about either of you. Vaimes could have known font was protected which means you would all have to be wolves (I think we've eliminated that possibility for now), or Vaimes could have telegraphed his shot so someone would protect font (which would HAVE to put font and Vaimes in contact with each other).

It is a factor to consider, but I wanted to get a vote on the board before I went to bed to capture my initial impression.

Blatantly claimed Duke? Did I miss that bit? To me she was claiming to be a hunter in order to put pressure on people. Can you post the bit where she claimed duke please.

Well, that could be damning. If font didn't claim Duke (nobody disputed Vaimes' post, so I was assuming she did...playing catchup as I was) then Vaimes and font were sure as hell communicating. No way he attempts a kill on another Hunter unless he's 100% certain she's protected.

Morning guys! Catching up on all I missed from 5PM - on last night. Will post thoughts at some point.

Think this is all of font's posts thus far into the game.

vote martind

His protection of font is very questionable. If anyone thinks he is good I am certain he will not be able to duke due to the peacemaker. The laser scope could affect his protect order and duke/hunter but I think that is unlikely. I would like to hear others thoughts on this though as we may not want to deal with the martin situation with his lynch today.

So clearly font was threatening to kill me if I didn't give her a reason otherwise.

Vaimes clearly has a thought or read on her, that's my assumption on why he attempted to kill her.

MartinD really confounds me. I don't get the protection order on font. I would certainly like to know more.

Right now I'm putting a vote on...

vote cheekimonki

I find it very hard that he can buy into the story that MartinD is the medic AND a wolf. The outcome is so small, I can't see it happening here. If anything, MartinD is a villager. Vaimes and font are still completely questionable.

Placing a vote here now, but as always, subject to change.

Peacemaker using their power results in a no-lynch I think, although it's not transparent. Not the most fantastic of results for the village.

[b]Chief - if a peacemaker uses his power
a) does it result in a no-lynch even if no-one dukes?
b) is the identity of the duke who tried to move the vote revealed?
c) is it used up even if no-one tries to duke?

Gah! Bold fail.


Chief - if a peacemaker uses his power
a) does it result in a no-lynch even if no-one dukes?
b) is the identity of the duke who tried to move the vote revealed?
c) is it used up even if no-one tries to duke?

If we go MartinD and allow him to duke we find out about the three wolf theory. If he doesn't duke to Vaimes it gives the three wolf theory some traction.

The problem is that in my mind at least the most likely scenarios have Vaimes as village.

Going in to work in a moment. Will get online at lunch to post, hopefully on the laptop (hate doing this phone posting).