Very perceptive

dola- no sarcasm meant in the above comment, that is solid thinking

before you all go and automatically lynch me, try and conceive of the fact that lathum is often a N1 target (hell he bought the BG last game), that we're both vet players and that we won the first leg of the race..

is that so hard to believe lathum, you really think i'm selling you out? awful.

FWIW Jackal I feel terrible about it, I was really excited to be partnered with you and am genuinely disappointed it came to this.

yeah well.. you're throwing away both parts of the game, i'm not a wolf, and for you to believe 100% i'm a wolf because of what happened is ludicrous.. we won the first leg, you're a common N1 target, we're a strong team.. of course mau was the likely NK target which is why the wolves would think he'd be protected, so they went after a good villager instead who would have little chance of being blocked. think about it, man.

did mau reveal his scan already? i assume i wasn't scanned. have mau scan me tonight, block him, this is nuts.

i'm going to bed, i'm happy to answer anything tomorrow, but you guys should see that this in no way makes me a wolf because of the scenario that played out. i understand why it could arouse lathum's suspicion but it's perfectly explainable. disappointing.

it's a damn good thing the flyers won in OT or i'd be SUPER pissed at you right now, lathum.

So Lathum... why did you openly share this info with Jackal with no idea if he was a wolf or not?

This is a fricking awesome game btw guys. You don't realize until you actually play. So many possible scenarios after just one day...

Until something is shown differently...
Vote Jackal

So far I'm buying Lathum's story, and not The Jackal's. And that's saying something!

VOTE THE JACKAL

Glad you are having fun, bhlloy.

By the way, we don't normally get handed a wolf on the first day :)

yeah Mau, who did you scan and what did they come up as?

I know you're mad (I would be too) but he's not throwing away both parts, as long as you two aren't eliminated you can still participate in the race part.

Hahah I know right we will just have to get it tomorrow. As they say the old turtles always win the race. ;)

Sorry I was not here for the deadline but I am about to read up on what happened and then post some thoughts tonight or tomorrow.

there is no story to buy.. this was a random lucky shot for the wolves, though it's not that random considering what i've already laid out. but hey, i wasn't sure i wanted to be in this game anyways. got excited about winning the first leg for nothing! i'll be lynched, lathum will be nightkilled, we're out. i'm not going to be able to convince anyone i'm telling the truth because the wolves lucked out so hard. enjoy the game!

lathum.. this relationship is not going to make it, sorry! :)

vote jackal

I'm going to be lynched and he's going to be nightkilled.. that's eliminated

roughly 75% chance he isn't so why not, it could help me during a lynch vote, especially with me not being able to be on much between 9-10.


It really is, glad you are having fun!

Jackal, your scenario is possible, but it's not the more likely of the two scenarios and barring any other info, it's hard to not vote your way.

I keep trying to find a different scenario, but why on earth would the wolves target me unless they knew I was the body guard and assumed I wouldn't be guarding myself.

jackal, you have to be eliminated in the race portion! If you're both killed in the werewolf part that doesn't count as eliminated!

either way a jackal lynch helps us way more than anyone else at the moment

I strongly suggest a seer scan of Saldana

i guess you're right, i misread the beginning. still, i don't feel particularly motivated to win the race after my teammate sold me down the river. :p

and i understand that you're going to lynch me. there's nothing i can offer up as proof, my scenario is less likely. only thing i could have going for me is people reading my posts and thinking i'm telling the truth. but i'd probably vote for me too. oh well. going to be a day of a wasted vote with no history to go off of, followed by a likely NK of the bodyguard.

besides, my "story" isn't a story, it's a statement of fact. lathum has decided that since he told me he's the BG and he was attacked, chances are heavily in favor of me being part of the wolf team, and the wolves deciding that he'd probably protect the seer that came out. i can't really argue with that, but to think it's so unlikely that he'd be targeted randomly by the wolves N1 is assinine. i don't know where i'm going with this, doesn't sound like anyone is gonna listen.

maybe mau scanned me. that'd be sweet. but it seems more likely that he scanned one of the other people on the block.

Jackal, I'm at the very least listening enough to wait and see if Mauboy has scan info to share with us. I don't see any reason to rush into the vote before hearing from him.

my argument about the wolves targeting us because we were leading the race was mostly based off me thinking that you get eliminated from the race if both people are lynched and/or NKed, so i guess that's pretty defunct. but still, it's certainly caused a rift, and as lathum noted to me recently, they're laughing their asses off right now!

Yeah.. apparently quite a few people felt the need to rush. :)

I'd plead harder for a mau scan tonight to clear me, but I don't have a role or anything, so it's probably not worth it. Might as well scan someone who you have a chance of nailing as a wolf.

Hey i'll switch if anything better comes up, no problem. i want to hear from Mauboy before he's killed off and his info becomes useless

Yeah I guess my only shot at this point is mau finding a wolf with his scan, then choosing to scan me tomorrow night. That'd be some sweet reverse luck right in the wolves' faces.

Oh, but of course there's a cunning, so I wouldn't be 100% cleared. Fudge. Hey, I'll do what I can tomorrow to help out.

dear lathum,

you better top kobe's apology present if you want to have any chance of winning the race after this

-jackal

hmmm, could Sal be the cunning fishing for a scan.....

hell, there's also still the chance that mau isnt even the seer, isnt there? i haven't reviewed it closely, but wouldn't be a crazy play for a wolf to claim seer on D1 when they were about to be lynched. best case the seer comes out right away to dispute (which the seer should never do on D1, having scanned no one), worst case the wolf lives at least another day or two.

another point in my defense column!

though an argument could be made either way on that one, because lathum could still decide to guard him not knowing if he was the seer, and the wolves would still know lathum was the BG if i was one, so nevermind. this is gonna be a tough cucumber to pickle.

It's possible but why would he give up one of his team members day 1? A team member who wasn't really even in the runing to belynched? Doesn't sound very smart to me

The combo of giving up a wolf and a clear scan could take you a long way. That being said, it would be a very meta-gamey way to get there, and knowing Sal I would be amazed if this was the case.

Again it's possible but I'm not inclined to believe it. I just think that the wolves have had really bad luck so far. martinD screwed up his PM, they tried to kill lathum and failed, we might have had one on the block with Mauboy1, imagine having a day like that.

I'd say they're fighting an uphill battle at the moment.

one last point of contention before i go to sleep. even if lathum had been NKed (presuming he had switched to mau), he'd still be able to talk in the thread, right? it would be a terrible play for me/wolves to go after him N1, knowing we knew exactly who he was and could take him out later in the game, especially if he was telling me who he was guarding. knowledge like that in the pocket is the kind of stuff that wins you games down the road, trying to eliminate N1 would be a silly maneuver.

Obviously I'm refusing to go down without at least somewhat of a fight here, so I'll take the silly self-vote away

unvote jackal

This actually brings up an interesting point. Usually in WW when you are dead no more talk about the game. How is this approached now?

First of all he would still be allowed to talk in the thread, just not about the WW part. EF can confirm that i believe.

Second, Lathum wouldn't tell you who he was guarding in case you were a wolf, he wouldn't have a way of knowing you were trustworthy or not without a seer scan. and even then there's the cunning, nobody can really trust their partners for the WW part.

This is just speculation on my part, i don't know for sure.

It's true, I could never be sure if he was telling me the truth, and I wouldn't expect him to tell the truth all the time especially if I was uncleared. But still. However, if dead players are no longer allowed to reference the WW part, another fighting point of mine is defunct, sigh.

From the first page -

Players are free to continue to participate in all discussions within the thread until they are eliminated from both portions of the game.

it makes sense though right? if you die in the WW portion why would you still be able to talk about it? other than being weird it gives an advantage to the village

Trying to eliminate Lathum N1 if I was a wolf would have been a boneheaded play, instantly outing myself, as has happened. Just think about it a little. Again, I don't have a role or anything, but lynching me is a waste, especially if its a runaway.

Yeah, maybe I'm misreading what I just posted up there, but that's sure what it sounds like. Maybe EF didn't mean it that way.

I think EF needs to clarify this point

It's a little weird that you would be able to contribute, but have to avoid mentioning anything about the WW portion. It might give an advantage to the village, but mostly in the case of an offed seer who didn't reveal.

I'd say there are 4 wolves (because of the cunning) and we've already got one. I'm confident we can nab another one tomorrow, luck is on our side.

Plus I can use the force :p

OK, off to bed. Been a fun day of WW

The problem I have with this is why would he do it that late in day one? I don't think that it would be done under normal circumstances, especially if we were close to lynching a villager who might be the seer. If that were the case then they would probably leave sacrificing MartinD until day two. The only reason I could see why the wolves would make a move like that is if mauboy is the cunning wolf. In such a situation they'd hope to clear two wolves, mauboy on a scan and saldana for giving up a wolf. It's risky though being it leaves saldana a candidate to be scanned by the seer.

Given the circumstances that would need to be necessary for a move like that to work I really don't think saldana gave up MartinD as another wolf.

EF told me you can still talk until you're out for good (of both the WW and AR parts of the game).

The part about mauboy does not make sense. If he is scanned as a villager, we know he is a wolf anyway as he is either the seer or a wolf. No other options for him.

I doubt Saldana is a wolf and I'd rather see someone else scanned. I think he is capable of a strong wolf play, but I seriously doubt he would have done it in a meta gamey way if he was a wolf. I'm guessing part of the reason his revealing of info was delayed was to see what EF said about it.

At this point, we know this

Mauboy = Seer or a Wolf
Lathum = Bodyguard

I'd also add this as an opinion.

Saldana is likely a villager.

I don't think it's what happened, but it's the only situation where I could see a wolf pulling a move like that so late day one. Mostly making the point that I don't think saldana is a wolf.

And despite everyone seemingly not, I tend to lean toward Mauboy actually being the seer. MartinD placed a key 3rd vote on him that was posted about the same time as the second vote and really helped establish him as a lynch candidate when it wasn't needed.

Well, I agree with the Saldana part.

I have extreme doubts mau is the seer. I think it was a desperation move and trying to emulate tyke's move last game of inventing a role . That said if mau is not the seer, the real seer is not going to out himself to refute that. The "future" comment was obviously claiming seer. His claiming BG protected him too really sounds like he's making stuff up and overexplaining.

Amazing reveal, Lathum. With that info I think both Jackal and mau can be wolves.

You forgot one thing:

Darth Vilus = BAMF!

He may or may not be. If he's not dead on night 3, we know he's a wolf.

We're both BAMF = Broke Ass Mother ****ers

Did you get your new phone btw?

Yeah that's true. And no not yet, i'll have to wait til next week at least

I don't entirely believe him either. I'm also open to the possibility that he's a regular villager who dropped hints that he seer to stay around past day one. I agree that the future comment was to give the impression he's a seer, but also without saying it so he can claim he never admitted to being seer.

I also think that he could be a wolf, but currently think The Jackal is a better pick for tonights vote.

I don't like Mauboy's reveal to be honest. It just doesn't sit with me. If he was goin to hint instead of coming right out with it his hint wouldn't have been so blatant

Don't by that a vanilla would do that. And if he did, he should be lynched for it.

This type of strategy puts the real seer in danger, i doubt that he would do that

But being new, he wouldn't realize that. I definitely think he would do that just to save himself, wolf or not.

True, we'll just have to see how this plays out. In my opinion we sould handle the jackal situation first

*should

Holy shit guys.

Sorry for missing the deadline, after putting the youngest to sleep, I sat on the couch for a minute and the next thing I knew, it was 1am. I can't believe the insanity I missed. Let me try to summarize:

1. mauboy1 is the seer or a wolf
2. saldana handed us a wolf after a PM from his partner telling him he was a wolf (uh, thanks!)
3. No NK, Lathum reveals he's BG and says he had told his partner that (Lathum, why would you do that when you didn't know if he was a wolf or not? That seems like a poor idea, although it apparently may have caught us another wolf)
4. Our team came in second for the leg, woohoo!

On the WW side, I'm going to hope mau is a wolf because even though we are off to a good start, it sucks if we're losing the seer and BG by N3 in a game where I figured the roles would last longer than usual considering there are more villagers than games I have usually played in. For today, I guess there are four possibilities:

1. mau is a wolf, Jackal is a wolf, wolves knew Lathum was BG and tried to off him N1.
2. mau is the seer, Jackal is a wolf, wolves knew Lathum was BG, figured Lathum would protect mau, and tried to off him N1.
3. mau is a wolf, Jackal is a villager, wolves had no knowledge of Lathum being BG and just took a swing a him randomly.
4. mau is seer, Jackal is a villager, wolves had no knowledge of Lathum being BG, figured mau would be protected, and just took a swing at him randomly.

I'm not a big believer in WW coincidence, so I'm less inclined to believe 3. or 4 (yes Lathum is a good player, but there's no shortage of strong players to take a random swing at). I don't know which of 1. or 2. is most likely, though I think as a wolf in scenario 2. I'd have been conservative and tried to NK mau to be guaranteed to have the seer out by N2, but either way Jackal would be a wolf, thus:

Vote Jackal

I'll try to keep up today, but I'm going to be challenged for time.

I wish I could say that I had something good to say get the vote off Jackal if he is not a wolf. I didn't scan a wolf last night. I was actually debating between Lathum and Chief Rum and thankfully I went with CR. He scanned as a villager.

I think Lathum might be putting too much emphasis on Jackal which has caused all the votes to go his way, unfortunately. If we do find out he is a villager I'm not sure how we're better off. Someone please explain what we do gain by going gung-ho and having an all-out lopsided vote on Jackal?

Here's what I do know I'm doing today..

I'm not voting for Saldana as the chances that both partners are wolves are pretty slim and would be a crazy move for Saldana to make if he's a wolf. Not seeing that move being made on day 1 though.

I'm not voting for Jackal because we need diversity if this doesn't work. I'd almost rather try swinging this into someone else's favor and investigate the quick voting on Jackal for day 3.

I'm not voting Lathum with his reveal.

And I also know I'm not voting CR as he was cleared with my scan.

Those are the four I know I'm not voting today, so that leaves me with 15 others.

14...

Throwing more crazy conspiracy theories out there... what if Mau is the cunning, and the wolves decide to sacrifice the non-roled wolf to save him? The upside would be huge - knowing that Mauboy is a villager and claimed seer, there is no way that he gets lynched and the wolves could control a lot of the game.

The timing of Saldana's reveal seems just so questionable to me in terms of who it saved and when (doesn't necessarily look bad for Sal - he could have been fed the information by MartinD and be completely clueless about the whole thing)

Sal - what time did you get the PM from MartinD, if you don't mind sharing?

2 things bother me 1) the timing of a stone clad lynch to save Mauboy and 2) the fact that somebody could be that stupid to just PM their partner who is 75% chance of being a villager that they are a wolf.

I know people think there's no way the wolves sacrifice one of their own on day 1 but there's 5 of them left. Pretty big upside to doing that IMO.

This would only fly until the real seer was outed, then their plan would sink.

Well, seems to me that there's two options

1) the real seer would almost have to come forward at that point, meaning they know who the seer is (huge play for wolves)

2) the real seer stays quiet and mauboy gets to control all the scans up until the point that the real seer get's lynched or NK'd

I guess the real seer could get killed early on and this plan wouldn't work. But otherwise, you could control a large portion of the game for quite a while.

Again apologies if this seems dumb. Just trying to put some conversation out there. The other option seems to be that MartinD made one of the biggest screwups in game history and/or the wolves are stupid and I'm not willing to just take that at face value.

See, someone please explain to me how trying to take out Lathum N1 would be a good idea if I was a wolf. There's absolutely no way I'd go without suspicion, it would be an awful move. What am I, a rookie? We'd have the knowledge that he was the BG in our back pockets, and be able to take him out later on without him being suspicious that I revealed any info.

I'm not a wolf, guys. It's a bizarre coincidence, but it's a coincidence nonetheless.

What happened last night should clear me much more than it damns me. If I was a wolf, I wouldn't have let that crap happen. That's an easy NK a couple days down the road, so what if he can get a block or two in.

Now as to who we should be voting instead, well, I don't have any great options. Sal gets a pass at least for now, and obviously we're not going after CR. Perhaps JAG or NTN to clear up some of the vote movement from yesterday, but that's about all I have.

In response to the timing question. I got the PM from martin a few hours earlier than I posted in the thread because I was waiting to see what EF said about it

I was ready to drop out of the game until he told me that it was ok to come in and give the info up to the village.

I didn't get that PM til about 5 minutes before I posted

I worked til 630 last night and had my kids til 9, so that was the fastest i could turn the info around

As far as me giving up a wolf on day 1 to draw a scan because I am the cunning, that's a really ballsy move on day one that would have been totally unnecessary. I'm a vanilla villager who got lucky

fwiw I know you were out last night. I think what happened was the other wolves came up with this why you were away

Wow...what a crazy night...

A lopsided vote that goes the wrong way definitely doesn't help things down the road, but this is clearly the best option for today.

VOTE THE JACKAL

I don't see any situation where it makes sense to imagine Saldana is a wolf. Offering up a wolf to be "cleared" is a great move, but you don't make it on a night where the seer could "accidentally" get lynched. Unless everybody else with votes at that moment, including Mauboy, was a wolf, I don't see it.

We rarely ever get as good a lead as Lathum's on Jackal on D2. I don't really see any reason to take a pot shot at someone else with that in our pocket. Another seer scan and we'll have a really strong start to the game.

I am not convinced that Jackal is bad. Sure, it is the best lead we have at this point but the justification of him being a wolf does not add up. Lathum could be a night one target in any game.

In fact, it leads me to believe that mau is more than likely not the seer. Why would the target not be him? Surely the wolves would prefer to kill off the seer instead of a solid player, who may or may not have a role.

That being said, I think either mau or the jackal is a wolf. I am just not sure which one yet.

GE, whether Mau is the seer or not, he's most likely not targeted last night. The wolves would have to assume he would be guarded with a then unrevealed bg.

A metagamey lynch, woo. :p

I get your point, but still, it would've been a bad move, and selling me down the river, after they'd already lost one wolf. Just bad move all around. You'll all see I'm telling the truth, and chalk it up to "oh, well it was a good lead". But man, this annoys me.

Or in the event Jackal is a wolf, they knew the BG and knew Lathum would be likely to protect Mau.

Which would still have gotten me killed the next day, because Lathum can still talk..

I'm going to laugh and eat popcorn while the wolves tear you apart and Lathum and I win the race. :)

You have a point. I don't guess that crossed my mind. I am still not convinced that Jackal is a wolf and I think we could potentially waste a day of voting history.

This is true, but we did not know the specifics at the time. Still, this is something to consider and the first piece of information that is a possible reason to not vote you.

The thing I don't get? Why DIDN'T Lathum protect the seer? Who plays with games like that, with the BG role? It is something that has bugged me since the get-go.

Now, it would take a tremendously gutsy wolf move AND the real BG would for some reason need to stay silent, so for those reasons, I expect Lathum is telling the truth. I can't see why the real BG would stay silent, and we have the evidence that no one died last night to back up what Lathum said.

But, yeah, I am struggling a bit with the fact our BG had a pretty good idea who the seer was and chose not to protect him. It may have ended up being the right choice here, but that concerns me going forward. I certainly hope Lathum protects the seer tonight.