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-   -   Werewolf CXXVIII - The Original Werewolves - VILLAGERS WIN (http://forums.operationsports.com/fofc//showthread.php?t=80934)

Lathum 03-23-2011 04:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49 (Post 2445075)
So you going to change your vote then?


No, really see no compelling reason to.

JAG 03-23-2011 04:47 PM

Are people feeling like we had four villagers on the block (not counting mckerney with one vote)? That would be the main reason I would think to vote the early voters. If you think that though (and I suspect it might be the case), then I think mckerney makes an interesting vote as he never got a sniff after he was a reasonable option with the vote 2-2-1-1-1. If you do think a wolf was on the block, in my opinion you should be voting Saldana or dwardzala, as they were the ones to put either DV or Jackal way behind Zinto in the voting. I'd rather not vote mckerney though because he's been one of the few actually posting, so I'm open to other thoughts.

Barkeep49 03-23-2011 05:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dwardzala (Post 2445081)
I'm not getting much of a read on anybody as of yet, although Danny's move off of Zinto to make it a "closer" race yesterday isn't sitting right with me. I'm not prepared to make him a third candidate yet.


I didn't like his play yesterday either. Knowing there will be a second vote for it

Vote Danny

Barkeep49 03-23-2011 05:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG (Post 2445088)
Are people feeling like we had four villagers on the block (not counting mckerney with one vote)? That would be the main reason I would think to vote the early voters. If you think that though (and I suspect it might be the case), then I think mckerney makes an interesting vote as he never got a sniff after he was a reasonable option with the vote 2-2-1-1-1. If you do think a wolf was on the block, in my opinion you should be voting Saldana or dwardzala, as they were the ones to put either DV or Jackal way behind Zinto in the voting. I'd rather not vote mckerney though because he's been one of the few actually posting, so I'm open to other thoughts.

The odds of that statistically (assuming 3 wolves) would be 38%. So odds are 1 of them is a wolf, but it's not a for sure sort of thing.

Barkeep49 03-23-2011 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 2445087)
No, really see no compelling reason to.

Just making sure I understand:

You vote for a person for a reason which turns out to be incorrect. Rather than correct your mistake you decide to let inertia reign?

Lathum 03-23-2011 05:20 PM

Why is it a mistake to vote him? Maybe my logic was a little flawed, but that doesn't change the fact that on D2 we don't have much to go on and he had a decent number of votes. Enough that he easily could have emerged as a candidate and didn't.

why are you so keen to hone in on that one vote.

Barkeep49 03-23-2011 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 2445101)
Why is it a mistake to vote him? Maybe my logic was a little flawed, but that doesn't change the fact that on D2 we don't have much to go on and he had a decent number of votes. Enough that he easily could have emerged as a candidate and didn't.

why are you so keen to hone in on that one vote.

Not particularly keen, just interested in the thought process that goes on.

Lathum 03-23-2011 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49 (Post 2445104)
Not particularly keen, just interested in the thought process that goes on.


There realy isn't much of one.

mckerney 03-23-2011 05:53 PM

Vote The Jackal

With nothing really to go on I'll stick with my vote from yesterday and hope that his 5th vote on Zinto was to protect a wolf who was on the block.

The Jackal 03-23-2011 05:55 PM

I didn't even really want to vote for Zinto, I said all along I thought DV was a better candidate. I ended up doing it for self-defense, I guess, though no one made any indication they were going to move.

Danny 03-23-2011 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dwardzala (Post 2445081)
I'm not getting much of a read on anybody as of yet, although Danny's move off of Zinto to make it a "closer" race yesterday isn't sitting right with me. I'm not prepared to make him a third candidate yet.


You can vote me for it, but I would make that move every single time in WW. A close vote tells us more than a runaway, especially on early days. From what I saw yesterday, I'd guess it's more likely the wolves made early to mid votes and stuck with them.

dwardzala 03-23-2011 06:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49 (Post 2445098)
I didn't like his play yesterday either. Knowing there will be a second vote for it

Vote Danny


Since I'm not the only one whose thinking this

Vote Danny

Autumn 03-23-2011 06:17 PM

Vote count as of post 211

JAG 1 - Lathum (175)
Darth Vilus 2 - The Jackal (180), J23 (190)
Danny 1 - Barkeep49 (203)
The Jackal 1 - Mckerney (209)

JAG 03-23-2011 06:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49 (Post 2445099)
The odds of that statistically (assuming 3 wolves) would be 38%. So odds are 1 of them is a wolf, but it's not a for sure sort of thing.


I'm not disputing your percentage, but can you tell me how you got to 38%?

Since I can eliminate myself as a suspect, the percentage is less favorable from my perspective.

Danny 03-23-2011 06:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49 (Post 2445098)
I didn't like his play yesterday either. Knowing there will be a second vote for it

Vote Danny


Not sure I like the latter part of your post which tends to place the responsibility of your vote at least partially on Dward. There was only three total votes at the time you posted this. If you felt I was a good vote, you should have done so regardless.

Autumn 03-23-2011 06:17 PM

Vote count as of post 213

JAG 1 - Lathum (175)
Darth Vilus 2 - The Jackal (180), J23 (190)
Danny 2 - Barkeep49 (203), dwardzala (212)
The Jackal 1 - Mckerney (209)

Danny 03-23-2011 06:19 PM

BK seems to be playing very confrontational thus far. I'd guess he might be the cultist as that is a strong way to play the role.

JAG 03-23-2011 06:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny (Post 2445135)
You can vote me for it, but I would make that move every single time in WW. A close vote tells us more than a runaway, especially on early days. From what I saw yesterday, I'd guess it's more likely the wolves made early to mid votes and stuck with them.


I agree, I think that's a villagerish move. If one of the people on the block was a wolf, it would put pressure on the wolves. I don't see what a wolf would gain from doing it.

JAG 03-23-2011 06:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny (Post 2445143)
BK seems to be playing very confrontational thus far. I'd guess he might be the cultist as that is a strong way to play the role.


Interesting thought. Although that probably doesn't paint me favorably if true.

saldana 03-23-2011 06:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG (Post 2445088)
If you do think a wolf was on the block, in my opinion you should be voting Saldana or dwardzala, as they were the ones to put either DV or Jackal way behind Zinto in the voting.


i put zinto ahead by one with 5 hours til deadline??!!!

i love when people make shit up to try to get me lynched

vote JAG

saldana 03-23-2011 06:25 PM

dola, i just got done working today, havent eaten yet, and have to clean my whole house for company coming tomorrow..i doubt i will be back tonight...sorry..my job is brutal right now.

Danny 03-23-2011 06:38 PM

Vote Jackal I want to see where it goes from here.

JAG 03-23-2011 06:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saldana (Post 2445147)
i put zinto ahead by one with 5 hours til deadline??!!!

i love when people make shit up to try to get me lynched

vote JAG


Effectively you put him up by two unless you thought I was going to move my vote due to the tiebreaker. Do you really dispute the logic that if a wolf was on the block that the later votes on Zinto look more suspicious?

Honestly your reaction is so over the top and I have so little else to go on, voting you is as good as anything.

Vote saldana

JAG 03-23-2011 06:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny (Post 2445153)
Vote Jackal I want to see where it goes from here.


I don't know how seriously you're entertaining BK = cultist, but if so, he had the second vote on Jackal yesterday.

Danny 03-23-2011 06:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG (Post 2445155)
I don't know how seriously you're entertaining BK = cultist, but if so, he had the second vote on Jackal yesterday.


I seriously doubt my vote will stick on Jackal. But I want to see where things go with the close vote we have now.

Danny 03-23-2011 06:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn (Post 2444710)
Final Vote Count

Zinto 5 - JAG (52), Darth Vilus (81), saldana (93), dwardzala (94), The Jackal (128)
JAG 3 - Lathum (61), mauboy (84), Danny (96)
Darth Vilus 2 - Zinto (70), Chief Rum (83)
The Jackal 3 - mckerney (66), Barkeep49 (82), bhlloy (85)
Mckerney 1 - J23 (78)


Quoted to put it on current page for my reference.

Danny 03-23-2011 06:52 PM

The initial group of names I wanted to look at were JAG, Darth and Saldana as the first three Zinto voters with unchanged votes. Since all three have votes, I will probably end up switching to one of those three.

Darth Vilus 03-23-2011 07:09 PM

I've been entertaining the idea of voting either JAG or Saldana (I forgot to mention him earlier), now i can choose between the two.

Vote Saldana

Let's see if we can get a wolf today

Danny 03-23-2011 07:10 PM

That vote makes me feel a bit better about you. I think a wolf puts a vote on one of the other three 2 vote candidates.

The Jackal 03-23-2011 07:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny (Post 2445174)
That vote makes me feel a bit better about you. I think a wolf puts a vote on one of the other three 2 vote candidates.


This is true, and it's making me think about switching as well.

Darth Vilus 03-23-2011 07:26 PM

Well FWIW (not much) I'm an ordinary villager this time around

Chief Rum 03-23-2011 07:37 PM

Mauboy's comment yesterday when making his vote still throws me off, and I would vote him if he was a candidate. But right now, he's not and I may not be able to check back in before deadline.

So I'll go with my vote from yesterday.

VOTE DARTH VILUS

mauchow 03-23-2011 07:37 PM

so we have four people tied at two votes a piece? Boy, my vote is going to either look real good or real bad.

mauchow 03-23-2011 07:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 2445205)
Mauboy's comment yesterday when making his vote still throws me off, and I would vote him if he was a candidate. But right now, he's not and I may not be able to check back in before deadline.

So I'll go with my vote from yesterday.

VOTE DARTH VILUS


And what comment was that?

mauchow 03-23-2011 07:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 2445205)
Mauboy's comment yesterday when making his vote still throws me off, and I would vote him if he was a candidate. But right now, he's not and I may not be able to check back in before deadline.

So I'll go with my vote from yesterday.

VOTE DARTH VILUS


My gut feeling post about if it's the right feeling or a need to take a shit? I was just trying to make a funny. I should have quoted who I was talking about. Off the top of my head, it was Danny who had a gut feeling. Gut feelings on day one is the only thing you really have to go off of. Sorry if it came off wrong, CR.

Autumn 03-23-2011 07:44 PM

Vote count as of post 235

2 JAG - Lathum (175), saldana (220)
3 Darth Vilus - The Jackal (180), J23 (190), Chief Rum (232)
2 Danny - Barkeep49 (203), dwardzala (212)
2 The Jackal - Mckerney (209), Danny (222)
2 Saldana - JAG (223), Darth Vilus (228)

mauchow 03-23-2011 07:51 PM

Just re-read the last two pages. There are definitely some weird vibes going on with a few people. Quick defensive posts, odd posts, etc.

I like saldana, bk, j23. danny, jag and dv as my possibilities at this point just based on what I've seen early on. If I go with JAG, danny, saldana or jackal i create a top two tie so obviously my vote is somewhat important.

dwardzala 03-23-2011 07:51 PM

Well we got a tight race here - whose gonna jump (and what does it mean)?

mauchow 03-23-2011 07:52 PM

And yes, I understand the tie breaking rules.

mauchow 03-23-2011 07:56 PM

Ehhh.............

vote jackal

Lathum 03-23-2011 07:57 PM

Christ the vote is spread out

mauchow 03-23-2011 07:57 PM

As far as Chief goes, I've been married to him two of the last three games and he still doesn't trust me!

Danny 03-23-2011 08:32 PM

Unvote Jackal

Danny 03-23-2011 08:32 PM

Vote Saldana

Tough choice between Jag and Saldana here.

Darth Vilus 03-23-2011 08:36 PM

deadline is in 1/2hr?

dwardzala 03-23-2011 08:36 PM

Interesting move Danny.

Now DV can't save himself with a vote for Jackal. Now, what does it mean?

Danny 03-23-2011 08:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dwardzala (Post 2445251)
Interesting move Danny.

Now DV can't save himself with a vote for Jackal. Now, what does it mean?


Still time, I expect some more movement.

mauchow 03-23-2011 08:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dwardzala (Post 2445251)
Interesting move Danny.

Now DV can't save himself with a vote for Jackal. Now, what does it mean?


Danny's vote did nothing unless someone else changes their vote. If he was really choosing between JAG and Saldana and wanted to feel like making a difference, the vote should have gone JAG as it would have been the leader to be lynched. A vote on Saldana is hiding and forcing someone else to make the move.

mauchow 03-23-2011 08:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny (Post 2445252)
Still time, I expect some more movement.


Which is what I figured you were doing. But still only 20 minutes isn't a lot of time for movement.

saldana 03-23-2011 08:43 PM

gotta for self defense at this point

unvote jag
vote darth


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