I'll have you know that in "normal" times, I avoid the gym more because I'm cheap than because I'm lazy :p

One of the perks of living in Houston is that it's pretty much never too cold to go outside. So, as long as you're ok with some heat, you always have a place to exercise.

SI

The woman who was fired from Florida Health Department a couple of months ago because she was reporting too much information claims that the DOH has been instructed to start fudging numbers downward (deleting cases/deaths) to support July 4th activities.

I saw that. On the one hand, her tweets present it as solid information (she claims to have gotten confirmation from 3 separate sources within the Florida Department of Health). And I'd put nothing past Florida's leadership at this point--up to and including hiding dead bodies.

On the other hand, disgruntled former employees are notoriously unreliable sources of information about their former employers.

I figure that if that's true and widespread enough within the Florida DOH that 3 separate sources are able to talk about it, then an actual news organization will be on the story pretty soon. But if all we every hear about it is from her, then I'm keeping on my skeptical glasses.

Agreed. Although the fact that they've already changed the way hospitalizations are counted knowing that beyond cases, people are looking at hospitalizations and deaths, suggests she is probably on to something. And like I've said with Trump time and time again, when completely unproven allegations are made that fit your MO for stuff we know you've done, then you kinda lose the benefit of the doubt.

Dr. Fauci said yesterday that he thinks there could be a vaccine by year's end and that he believes it will be a matter of when and not if.

That fits with other stuff I've tried to keep up with involving the science (though it is all over my head, so I am relying on summaries from sources I trust).

It seems like the news from the vaccine front is pretty good.
It seems like the news from the treatment front is pretty mixed.
It seems like the news from the "wear masks and socially distance" front is bad.

This is from Mississippi, but it could apply to many places. It's hard not to be pessimistic when you read this kind of stuff, which aligns with what many of us see/hear about in our communities.

State Health Officer Warns in Interview: Prepare For Overwhelmed Hospitals by Fall | Jackson Free Press | Jackson, MS

I recently watched an interview with Thomas Sowell from a few years ago. Most know him as a conservative columnist/economist. In his youth, he was a Marxist. He was asked how he went from one extreme to the other.

He told the story of himself as a young economist with the Department of Labor that was looking at the impact of the minimum wage law. Puerto Rico had been hit by a hurricane the same year that the law went into effect Puerto Rico. Unemployment had gone up significantly that same season, particularly with regards to migrant farmers. What was in question was whether or not the hurricane or the minimum wage law was the cause of the unemployment numbers. The group evaluating this was at an impasse, and Sowell suggested that they get figures from the Department of Agriculture regarding previous year numbers of acres of sugar that had been planted, and compare those numbers to the year in question and to rule out the impact of the hurricane look at acres planted and acres harvested. The group was horrified and threw up roadblocks to getting the data. It was then that he realized the group really did not want to know what the truth was. There was too much risk to those in the room. It was then (as he relates it) that he realized that government and government agencies have an agenda that is not necessarily for the good of the people, but for the good of those in government and in those agencies.

Watched the same interview myself a couple of days ago. It was eye-opening.

That seems a bit simplistic of a complaint, tbh. Marxists (and leftists in general) are hypercritical of governments in liberal Democracy. Their complaint is that government bureaucracy in liberal Democracy are beholden to special interests and perverse incentives (just look at how agency budgeting is done).

I see this myself, the higher ups in my agency (who are close to the political appointees) are concerned with things like pumping up certain numbers to continue funding. So this leads to a focus on things that have more 'measurables' - so companies changing practices that may help a lot of participants going forward is far less than money paid out because the Assistant Secretary can report to Congress that corps paid $X mil to Participants. Though on some level it's understandable, because reducing funding does things like basically make it incredibly hard for us to do onsite investigations because we don't have funds for travel.

Expectations over here are we'll be pretty much out of lockdown from July 1st on, depending on what gets announced about an hour from now. Still the 5-6 foot limitations, but a lot is expected to be opened up. I'm wary of the effects...

Since I am a teacher my wife bought me some funny masks to wear to work this coming school year. I wore one today with a big smile and goofy mustache on it to the store. I have to say it's more fun angering the people who don't wear masks than it is having people laugh or comment that are wearing the masks. Don't understand the mask "issue" at all. Actually saw a family of 5 where 4 of them were wearing the teenage son wasn't.

I'm definitely not going to spend lunch time looking for goofy masks online. No sir.

SI

Look for? Hell, those probably account for 50% of the Facebook ads I see for the past month

Signs pointing to golf tourney this weekend getting cancelled.

I understand the economics involved, but I just feel like 90% of sports are futile to try to bring back until next year, It will only be by brute force that sports goes uninterrupted through early next year.

I don't get this. Koepkas caddie tested positive, so he withdraws.

Last week a player tested positive in the middle of the tournament and they played it out. Why cancel this time?

Although timing might be moot, CT just instituted a 14-day quarantine for people coming from TX, SC and FL. Maybe everyone's already there, but that probably doesn't help.

EDIT: As of today, the list of states includes: Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, Utah & Washington.

To tie the mask and sports topics together, you couldn't pay me enough to spend 2-3+ hours outside attending a sporting event (or really anything outside) while wearing a mask. And I'm pro-mask wearing, but 15 minutes walking around the Lowe's outdoor section with my wife, and I'm sweating and uncomfortable.

Have always wondered about quarantines. I assume they are mostly for airlines? Like Hawaii seems fairly easy to issue a quarantine. How in the world would they know if somebody drove from Texas to New York though? Is just just the honor system? Is there an actual punishment? Just seems like something that is largely symbolic as people that refuse to wear masks etc don't seem like the type that would honor a quarantine.

I admit it does worry me a bit as Missouri seems to have a lot of idiots. Hope they don't cause a quarantine alert for the entire state since we have a Yellowstone/Mount Rushmore trip planned next month!

Yeah I don't really think that is where the opposition to masks comes from but I have to say if I have to go back to teaching and am fairly certain it will require a mask all day I am going to look forward to 3:30 and pulling that thing off in my car!

So in my friend group text day, I was just informed that our local bar is going to open up it's 'bar side' a week from Wednesday. It's 'restaurant side' has been open for a few weeks now. So my friend was trying to find out how many would be going up. Covid 19 cases in Georgia are spiking back up right now, and multiple people in this friend group have serious underlying conditions. Yet it seems I'm the only one saying, nah, I'm not going to be sitting at an open bar anytime soon.

They think it's because I have a new kid, but it's because cases are spiking and seems like it's going to get a loooot worse before it gets better. I tried to make the point (and said, ask me again in August), but I feel it may fall on deaf ears.

The thing about quarantines is that they're all essentially voluntary. Not sure how anybody expects anything to really be enforced, there just isn't any infrastructure to do that, unless someone's doing something I'm not aware of.

Oh shit...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...ve-updates-us/


California's hospitalizations are also way up as are Texas's.

Re: Quarantine: For people staying in hotels etc (and they are really the issue, not people visiting relatives and mostly meeting people they know anyway and vice versa) it can't be that difficult to 'get the drop' on them or rather have them be afraid enough of that possibility (provided a big fine is attached) to consider cancelling the trip. Because really nobody will actually do it and stay in the hotel room. Just assuming you need to identify yourself checking in with your home adress.


Another thing: nationwide deaths seem (!) to have stopped dropping going by numbers from Yesterday and today compared to last week same days. (Yes, just a snapshot)
So now in 2-3 weeks we should have a better idea what damage on that front (again, not dying can still mean a loooong illness and recovery, if not permanet damage) the current* spike has done. And yes, it is a genuine spike and not merely a byproduct of more tests.

* Though all that 'happening' right now still actually happened a week or 10 days ago what with reporting delays and people not getting tested day one. So whatever is changed now (by people or officials) would also only affect numbers in 10 days.

Same. Bless those people who have to do it all day for their job.

Almost 40k cases today spread out much more than in April and we're mostly responding with a shrug.

First we had quarantine fatigue, now we have failure to adhere to social distancing protocols fatigue.

Four years of constantly having to listen to/battle against Trump's BS, on top of an election year, pandemic, BLM, etc. It's just too much. We're tired of waking up each morning to the same shitty day over and over. It's CovidTrumpHog Day.

Washington is going to mandatory masks starting Friday. Yakima county is getting hammered and businesses that don't enforce masks there will be shut down.

I have the same feeling now that I did in early March when things were getting bad, I had plans coming up over the next few months, and I just wasn't sure what would happen.

The projections for Houston are not getting better

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-upda...upancy-growth/

Usually projections are just that, off in the future. But how about

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-upda...ovid-19-cases/

We just picked up 2300 new cases today. Our previous high for a day was in the 1600s.

We're so screwed here, despite having the largest medical center in the world.

It doesn't matter if it's all "just the flu".

SI

Overnight, the nation saw a new record for new coronavirus cases in a single day, 45,000, as well as a record number of hospitalizations across the Sun Belt. @SamBrockNBC reports from Houston, one of the hardest-hit cities in Texas. pic.twitter.com/gfF8Fw2g5X

— TODAY (@TODAYshow) June 25, 2020

The greatest policy failure in American history.

Possibly, but that lets the American citizens and their actions completely off the hook.

Cheer up, guys. We may be at an alltime high in cases, but at least amusement parks open next week!
.

I have this treatment I get every 2-3 months are a chemo infusion center. I do not have cancer.

As you would imagine they are pretty stringent with their screening and protocol. I am here today. In the waiting room lady next to me has her mask pulled down below her nose. Now I am in the actual chemo infusion center and the guy across the way has his mask around his neck.

We can put all the rules in place and it doesn't matter. A certain percentage of the population is either too stupid or too stubborn to follow them. Even in a cancer ward.

Partially. I don't see any tightening of the rules to keep it from spreading. Are people being charged for not wearing their masks? If there are no repercussions and no incentive to do the right thing, people will do what's easiest.

I get your point, but at the same time, is America in a place right now where it would be good to police the wearing of masks?

However, in states like PA where the governor has been more emphatic about wearing masks, we are not seeing significant case increases. Messaging is important.

Agreed

Heck, just imagine if cops try to arrest someone at a BLM protest who wasn't wearing a mask!

Same in Colorado. New cases are now plateauing instead of falling but they are still at a low level and the positivity is good. And lowest hospitalization numbers since March. Governor got on the mask wearing early and I'm still seeing a good level of mask wearing at stores and taprooms.

Meanwhile, in Texas, we're fucked

Si

I'm going through withdrawal. I need another Lathum zinger!

Could the timing be any worse than it has been? You are right.

Anti-Mask Floridians Hurl Conspiracy Theories At Officials In Wild Public Meeting

I wonder how these people feel about "no shirt, no shoes, no service" policies

That public meeting reminded of "Parks and Recreation"

This is so fucking true. I am exhausted.

I swear that I feel like an awful human being every time I think to myself, "It wouldn't be that bad, if such and such person, died." The reality is that I do in fact have those thoughts, and it probably makes me more like Jon than anything else, which I also hate. Except that I regret having those thoughts, where he does not.

Texas police will not cite mask order violaters
So, back in late April, a month before George Floyd died and the subsequent protests and police actions, a judge issued a mask order for Harris county. Our imbecilic police union President, well, here:


So, yes, Harris county had a mask order in place but the police refused to enforce it.

Texas face mask orders return in counties across the state | The Texas Tribune
Of course, part of Texas's (dumb) COVID executive order is that local municipalities cannot impose penalties for not wearing masks so they're merely suggestions.

It's hard to keep this thread non-political when our stupid ass elected officials keep making it so. They know Harris county, for instance, would have a mask order with fines, if allowed. But it's probably unenforceable due to non-compliance from the police union. So what the hell are we supposed to do?

SI

I got nothing. I spent 3 hours at a chemo infusion center today and people weren't wearing masks correctly.

Someone was on the same wavelength as you, Imran. :D

We’re officially living in a Parks and Rec episode. #WearAMask pic.twitter.com/LknwwdYmvF

— BLM-Law (@LawJSharma) June 25, 2020

It's amazing how right that show was about local government.

These sound like cult members.

The school plans starting to come out are weird. Cobb County (GA) has said that parents can choose either in person or at home. But you have to make a decision by July 10 and if you stay home, that's your decision for the entire first semester. Meanwhile, teachers haven't been told at all how this is supposed to work.

Meanwhile, state is making almost a billion in cuts to education.

Apparently Gwinnett is doing so as well, and Gwinnett teachers are being told they have to come in as normal.

While Georgia cases and hospitalizations are spiking again. Atlanta is as high as it was in April.

Head in the sand sort of thing.

How are teachers supposed to teach both the students in class and the students online at the same time?

I guess ask the school officials?! The online ones definitely seem like they'd be at a disadvantage - like watching a video of teaching going on?

I remember how two months ago people were talking about how much more teachers were going to be respected after parents saw how much work they had to do to teach kids... guess not.

I assume if teachers don't know yet, the officials don't have a plan. Probably waiting to see how many families are taking in person vs at home option. Meanwhile the summer is wasted while they could be making plans and prepping.

Wow, according to Worldmeter, the US is over 2000 deaths for today already. That's the worst day on record since May 7.

I remember when I was in college, we sometimes had some people attend class by zoom or whatever app we had. Just have a camera pointed at the teacher.

Obviously not ideal but you have to work with what you have.

Looks like New Jersey reported probable deaths in their total today causing the big spike.

I'm planning to do both in-person and on-line for the Fall semester. There's no way I can have any sort of meaningful attendance policy, so the only way to teach is to offer the material in two different formats. I'm working on ways to match the format for both delivery methods.

I don't think that's as easy for H.S. and probably impossible for elementary.

I'm planning to do both in-person and on-line for the Fall semester. There's no way I can have any sort of meaningful attendance policy, so the only way to teach is to offer the material in two different formats. I'm working on ways to match the format for both delivery methods.

I don't think that's as easy for H.S. and probably impossible for elementary.

Yep.

One good thing is that saliva tests might well be ready for widespread use in a few weeks, both the Take-Home variation as well as a 'mass version'. Takes less than an hour for results. Everybody gets tested friday before they leave and ideally on another day as well. It is not going to be as reliable, but make it 2 tests and you at least should get a heads up early on if it is spreading.

People in charge have to come to terms with the fact the virus will circulate in schools and plan accordingly, not do it like in some schools here and Close for 2 weeks everytime someone tests positive. That is not a plan.

Kids will get infected and will spread it. Almost all studies saying otherwise are under Lockdown conditions really, numbers from Sweden or countries that have opened show they are infected at about the same rate as their % of the population indicates. (Germany 10% each of the population is 0-9 and 10-19 and both for 3 weeks now hit that % of positive tests). Which in itself would be good news because with Influenza it is thought they are way more likely to catch and spread it than adults.

Kids need to get Education and ideally in person and without crazy rules. But you have to have a plan to monitor the situation to not put major pressure on parents to 'isolate' them away from school (or not). And have a plan for how to handle it when cases pop up, not have every school figure it out on the fly. Give them a range of options depending on what the situation is (1 case you need a different approach than 10 in the same class or 5 across 3.)

There are way too many instances of crossing your fingers, hoping for the best and come up hurriedly with a 'plan' when that does not work*. Or refusing to make a plan or pass the buck.

* Germany for example: for weeks every expert and even politicians made clear that holidays means people spreading it to other regions. We also have Benchmarks in place for when counties need to crack down more (depending on state 35 or 50 cases per 7 days per 100k inhabitants). Now instead of figuring out how to connect the 2 before holiday season we get this big outbreak in 2 counties and NOW suddenly every state seperately tries to come up with a plan on how to Deal with this (can they book into accomodation or not, do they need a test etc).
You had 2 months to come up with a plan, now they are scrambling days before the first big states kick off the holidays. I mean, wtf ?

:(

I don't see a problem. The camera should follow the professor and the professor's slides/notes, etc. One camera for the lecturer, one for the notes.

This may work decently for High School and College, but what about Elementary School kids? A lot of their instruction is far more hands on.

My wife (who is an art teacher) pointed out that one side effect of this is that poorer families will likely feel more of a burden to come in, as both parents (or single parent households) are more likely to work and can't have their kids do school at home for entire school semester or year.

I don't recall that being the case when I was in school :)
Well and there was all that misc activity time. diaramas and shit too

lathum why are you at a chemo place? :( You or someone you know sick? :(

I was in the waiting area for a doctor as well today. About 7 of us in the waiting area with masks, every employee with masks. Lady walks in without one and is told she needs to put one on. Goes on some rant couldn't catch a lot of it but sure it's right off a facebook meme being passed around but eventually puts one on that was in her purse! So you have the mask even and you want to raise a shit storm? Doesn't even make sense. What I liked best about the mask is I don't have to have any fake expression on my face of shock or sympathy or whatever. I can just sit and observe. Think I should wear one at home around my wife more often. :)

As a public school teacher the problem we are going to have is the problems we have with a lot of things. There is a unpaid committee meeting in the summer to determine planning for next year. Well this brings out the ladder climbers and the busy bodies generally who also have no family obligations. Who even knows what terrible ideas they will come up with that we will have to implement?

I do not have cancer. I have a genetic blood disorder called hemochromatosis. Basically my body doesn't process iron properly and I have to get a phlebotomy every 3 months. They do them at the same place they do chemo.

What I think will happen in the fall is if parents have to go back to work but kids can't go to school or parents are unwilling to send we will see little co-ops pop up where parents either alternate houses to accommodate days off or stay at home parents take on the burden.

That's more staff and tech than most colleges can afford. What's more likely is a Zoom with the laptop placed so that the camera captures a limited amount white board and a video out to a projector for slides/documents/etc.

It won't be all my choice, but I'm looking at doing one meeting a week with readings/videos/etc. posted on-line.

And if colleges can’t do it, elementary schools sure can’t.

Poorer families will also be more likely to send kids to school because of meals.

How Denmark proceeded re: schools (after stopping the spread in it's tracks early)

How reopened schools in Denmark keep children safely apart - BBC News

thelocal

I generally think opening schools is safe when you have a willingness to accept some changes and have a way of keeping track of developments (just in case sth turns out to be going wrong somewhere, somehow), for which a low level of transmissions is obviously super helpful ... if everybody has a commong goal (opening schools) and is willing to work the problem, rather than arguing if there is a problem and hoping it will just go away.

Unless you are somehow alternating which days the kids go to school, this won't work in the US.

We also have to understand that state budgets are going to be so bad that all of the school opening plans will be executed with fewer staff and less funding.

Right. The state of GA is cutting almost a billion from education this year.

TX closes bars, knocks restaurants back to 50% capacity, bans gatherings >100 w/o local approval.

Schools in Missouri will not be affected this upcoming year. They are mostly funded. The CARES act closed the gap on the lost revenue.

Its the next year where things may get interesting when the state government cuts back the budget.

I'm going to need Georgia to close bars and reduce restaurant capacity again...

Also, what folks in other places may not realize is that in some parts of Georgia, teachers return just four weeks from Monday, and then students a week later. I just checked, and 8/3 is the first day of school in Cobb County. (And I wouldn’t be shocked if some districts start a week before that. Some of my Georgia friends were posting first-day-of-school pics in July last year.)

Almost 9000 cases and a 13% positive rate reported by FL.

Not to sound callous, but I am completely over reporting on and worrying about numbers of people who have, at worst, flu-level symptoms for a few days and fight it off at home with rest and fluids, but it seems critical to understand if hospitalizations are rising or falling, and in much of the reporting that number is not even mentioned.

I'm not completely over it, but I agree. The context appears to be missing. Positivity rate, hospitalizations and deaths seem way more important than just number of cases.

It's fine, they can just declare bankruptcy, no problems.

(I'll excuse myself to the political thread and/or scream into the abyss)

Does positivity rate matter that much (beyond figuring out if we have herd immunity,) if large numbers of those are asymptomatic or get minor symptoms? I’m not in the “this is just the flu” crowd, but for some significant percentage of positive tests, it *is* no worse. Honestly I think all the reporting on testing is part of the reason people are tuning out and moving on. Tell folks that we have more positive tests than ever, and they say “of course. More tests. The media is just trying to scare us/make Trump look bad/control us/etc.” Tell ‘em that ICUs in their state have gone from 60% to 90% capacity (or whatever the numbers are...I did read that Houston is over 95%) in the last 4 weeks, and that’s another story entirely.

That is insane to me. We go back week after Labor Day. Imagine being a kid in the NE who finished school third week of June and your family moves to Georgia and you get a 5 week summer break?

Murphy will announce today what schools will look like in NJ in the fall. Predictably a lot of "I am homeschooling" chatter.

And you get a really nice summer if you move GA -> NJ.

Private schools have to be sweating this situation out just as much as colleges.

Agree that hospitalisation rates, ICU capacity, deaths and death rate are the key metrics.

An encouraging report here in the UK suggests that the proportion of hospitalised patients has fallen from 6% in April to 1.5% currently, and is continuing to fall. This is consistent with other countries data too.

If this pattern continues to fall, or even stagnates at 1%, as the article says, the conversation and measures taken are very different to what we saw in Spring.

Still unknowns though, as to how the summer climate, effect of lockdown and social distancing, etc have affect the type of patients, but overall positive

Coronavirus death rate falling in hospitals - BBC News

Florida just banned alcohol consumption in bars.

And, for some reason, this is singled out:

Houston coronavirus updates: What you need to know for June 26 - Houston Chronicle


Guh?

SI

Long bus rides maybe? Every guided rafting or tubing trip I’ve ever gone on with a company involved a bus ride of at least 20 minutes in very tight quarters—usually longer than that.

Shared wetsuits, oars, etc...plus some are overnight camping. I also realize it is outdoors but you also have someone at the back of the boat yelling commands.

I think based off what happened today college football is in loads of trouble.

Proposed Early Warning Monitoring and Mitigation Metrics - Texas Medical Center
We haven't done today's update yet, but Houston was at 100% of capacity yesterday and we've moved into surge capacity. That is expected to run out in about a week and a half. Then you kindof start getting to the "triage" phase we saw in Italy, NYC, and elsewhere where if you're old and in bad shape, you're pretty much left to die and the beds and, especially, doctors and nurses are left for the healthy and young.

I'd argue that the case and infection numbers do matter for a couple of reasons. There's the duh-duh "a portion of today's infections become tomorrow's ICU cases" part. The infection rate also seems like a good way to tell if your area is getting better or worse - much more reliable than raw case numbers.

SI

Isn't this where the federal government steps in and has the Army core of engineers build temp hospitals? Or move the Comfort of Mercy to Houston?

If we had a functioning federal government, sure.

This. I think it matters in context. A growing number of cases with a very high positivity rate shows that the disease is out of control.