It's a damned if you do, damned if you don't, right? There's going to be a downturn either way because some people won't go if masks are required and others who won't go because masks /aren't/ required.

SI

If I had a strong tourists needed business, I probably would feel a little differently about the masks law, but since I don't and there's more and more of a local year-round population these days thanks to them building houses in every corner they can find, I don't think those businesses are likely to suffer as much as they would in the past by having a mask law.

But be sure to refresh my memory about this if I bitch too much :)

Just for clarity, I'm not talking present, I'm talking future.

If you didn't go to Vacation Destination X during this then it would seem that you're less likely to have a firm recollection about their position. If you DID go, however, and had a bad experience that seems more likely to stick with people and impact future behavior.

2020, you have finally delivered. That shake is so fucking good.

Generally for me they follow it. We have open breezeways, so once buzzed in they can just walk right up to my door. This was the only person who couldn't be bothered. I mean there is a spot in the app when it comes to review the order where it asks "Did the driver observe your contactless delivery request". She had to know she'd get dinged for that, right?

Interesting from Goldman Sachs:

Error Page


Basically GS looked at mask wearing as an alternative to a second lockdown.

People have been saying that for a while now. Masks reduce spread and widespread mask usage can drop the R0 below 1 and start to control the virus. We're one of the few stupid countries not onboard with this plan.

SI

Its crazy how many people still think this is a joke, an experiment to control us or an election conspiracy.

There is one douche on the FB community page of my town who responds multiple time to any post about covid with all of those theories.

At first it was "fun" to correct him, but it is not worth the breath. He is dead locked into his deep state bullshit and trolls away while he jacks off to a head shot of Alex Jones.

Time to stock up again, Trump couldn't even beat the virus.

I like their Cappuchino and Chocolate Chip shakes more, but that first watermelon shake of the season can't be beat :)

North Myrtle Beach has passed a mask requirement. Myrtle has one drafted, but have not yet voted. Meanwhile the state is getting more than a 1,000 new cases a day

If one more person says something about a watermelon milkshake I'm gonna hurl.

You have to post a photo of the hurl or we won't believe you (please don't :) )

There's a good article in the WSJ (behind a paywall) about masks in Hong Kong. 97% of people use them in public and they haven't had to shut down anything really (the 3% are Americans and Europeans). People going about their business as normal and cases remain minimal.

Hong Kong has had 7 deaths and just over 1200 cases total.

It's a choice we made.

Well, Colorado just closed its bars again. Odd decision in my opinion. There has been a small uptick in cases the last couple of weeks but there has also been an increase in testing and the positivity rate hasn't increased.

Makes me worried what the updated numbers that come out in a few minutes will be.

Whatever they decide they want them to be today.

Well, not really any change with today's data, if anything it looks like the small increase has halted.

What do you think the benefit of making up numbers is? So that politicians destroy their local economy and look bad to voters? Or for hospitals to lose their most profitable form of business (elective surgeries)?

I see people thinking these are being faked but I can't understand who the hell it benefits.

Just made dinner reservations for Thursday night. First time going out in 4 months to a restaurant.

I generally take this stuff with a grain of salt, but exactly. It would be like getting fettuccine alfredo with no sauce. It was fathers day also.

I am surprised the dashers don't check it considering DD is on the hook. The cream cheese thing pissed me off also because there is literally 2 slots at the top of the bagel box specifically to hold the cream cheese.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/dr-a...demic-flu.html

Because why not?

Read in passing about another state (forgot which) that is pushing back opening of indoor bars. They are just super obvious candidates for big superspreader events and more and more are reported in countries that tried to open them somewhat normally and states like Florida as well. This might be preemptive more than anything.

EDIT: https://www.today.com/today/amp/tdna185492

And as an aside: Ultimately we as a society might have to pick and choose. And as bad as it is for bar owners and people employed, i do hope we rank them far below schools in terms of importance.

NJ was supposed to open indoor dining starting Thursday and is postponing it.

I imagine that there are lots of viruses every year that are like this and in any other given year they wouldn't make a blip in the news. This seems like one of those instances where we're hearing about it because of everything going on.

Here they are preventing any in dining alcohol sales even during dinner. I think it is to prevent those big gatherings later at night.

True. Heck, those evil chinese labs Trump and co like to blame do just that: monitor zoonotic viruses and assess their potential dangers (which is an entirely imperfect science. For example it seems pretty certain the new Coronavirus was deemed harmless in bats, but then mutated either there or in another species).

There is also a hundred or so every year making the jump to Humans, fortunately mostly limited to a few harmless cases. (Which can change at any time, for example it is thought that HIV took off on the 10th 'try'.). And yeah, the fact this went the normal publishing route of a paper kinda tells you it is a wait-and-observe thing, not a "everybody Panic" thing
But the problem itself is very real and increasing pretty rapidly. And there have been a few terribly close calls before covid.

Actually always had a morbid fasconation with this ... Davin Quammen had a great book about this (Spillover) and there is an episode on this in the Netflix series "Explained" (The Next Pandemic) from 2019 ...

My wifes BIL sent a link to her saying that this isnt a virus after all but a bacteria that causes blood clots in the lungs. This was discovered by the Italians and they have a cure.

Anyone else hear this one?

That has been citculating on and off since may and pushed to the general public by certain circles, originating on social media posts purposefully misinterpreting facts ...

It is a Virus that is also causing blood clotting (often and significant) and like any prolongued respiratory illness sometimes Covid19 patients develop a secondary bacterial infection, which then contributes to the risk of dying significantly as it does with other illnesses.

And both blood clotting and bacterial infection can in theory be treated by medication quite targetedly (and often antibiotics were administered quite liberally at least in the early days, to at least do something, which leads to problems of it's own re: drug resistant bacteria). And Italian pathologists, among others around Europe, did discover this extensive blood clotting in the lungs via autopsies (which the WHO did warn to be cautious with, not yet knowing how much virus is still present at TOD). And Italy has the virus under good controll right now after a much more strict and legthy lockdown and due to extensive testing, tracing and quarantining. Not because they are the only ones to wake up and smell the coffee (and just prescribe Aspirin as the original conspiracy theory claims along with of course sth about 5G)

So you have truths mixed together in a seemingly logically but still also 100% wrong and ludicrous conclusion to 'proove' there really isn't a virus out there and since there is a cure, all we need is open our eyes and ask for it.

Fact check: COVID-19 is caused by a virus, not by bacteria

COVID-19 Isn't Caused by Bacteria - FactCheck.org

I think this is true, but I also think if you can't have bars open you can't have schools open either. There's no way to have that many children in close proximity and not create the exact same problem.

All schools in the area the I know of are pushing back starts. Rockdale/Newton are starting on August 24th for k-3 grade, while the older students are doing online instruction. Older students aren't starting back in class til after Labor day, but they have a choice to do at home schooling. There are going to be several "Independent learning" stretched during the year as well.

Thank you! I was wondering if I was the only one there for a mo'. :)

It's to stop people from surging in to get tested all at once, from the stories I've read. Particularly in places that are already overwhelmed.

But 1) you should have a much easier time with surveilance/tracing to detect cases and then stop the spread, meaning the epidemiological damage can be limited much more efficiently with a good plan and ressources. Like regular testing, fixed groups etc, then of course if you get a case, you normally (at least more often than bars ...) have accurate contact information immediately available. And even when you can't reach someone the kid will be there the next day to get a hold of.

And again 2) the benefits outweigh the risks by a lot more (which really for kids are extremely miniscule), especially long term.

We are using the same cost benefit thinking with opening up in general or at least we should, there are always things open that are riskier but more essential while others are shut or limited despite being less dangerous but also far less essential.
With schools it feels like it's overlooked because there is no immediately obvious (!) economic benefit. But in essence it is what in other areas is called an "essential business".
Cutting education is unsustainable. And as an aside, school meal plans are also hugely important to a lot of kids/families.

Not to mention that without schools and daycare, parents of younger kids especially have the choice to leave kids alone all day every day with all the nagative consequences arising from that, not go to work (remember your point in the trump thread on this possible issue, of which childcare imo is an important factor/motivator) or leave them with, say, their grandparents... And a lot of those parents work in true essential businesses where them missing time is a societal problem.
It's not happening in a vacuum.

One of the more fascinating things about the pandemic and in a larger sense where we are as a country is the unity with which all political sides don't believe anyone of the numbers being reported.

Eh. I don't agree. While there are some parallels there are also a lot of differences.

If there is an outbreak in a school it would be far easier to contact trace and contain.

Schools have teachers/staff/etc...to make sure kids are wearing masks, washing hands, social distancing, etc...bars rely on the patrons themselves to do this, many of whom are intoxicated and already don't view themselves as vulnerable.

Schools can stagger recess, lunch, restroom trips, etc...bars just let people in, and many break the rules for capacity because owners see the almighty dollar.

A lot of schools are talking about kids being on groups or pods where they stay with the same 4 kids all day, every day. In theory a bar would be much safer if people stayed with their group, but again, young people are going to mingle and try and meet girls, etc...

Schools can dedicate staff to constantly clean, disinfect, etc...while bars may do this overnight, but once they are open for business they likely aren't doing that sort of sanitary maintenance.

The biggest difference between schools and bars is alcohol.

Alcohol doesn't help, but it's more about controlling people's movements. Which is why restaurants are not shutting back down (yet), but bars are. You sit in one place at a restaurant and eat; in bars, people are up and mingling.

In school, there is (theoretically) even more control.

I also think a lot of it is the mentality. Kids are pretty easy to get into a routine, especially for a teacher trained to work with them. Plus they want to be in school and will listen to instructions. They of course will be kids and do kid things, but by and large it won't be hard to get them to follow a routine.

People who cram into bars are mostly younger kids in their 20s who full well know the risk and think they are invincible or they won't get it. They don't care about being spreaders or what happens to others, as long as they can go out and have a fun night.

Now get off my lawn.

Yeah, my wife came home and showed me that. Thankfully, we're almost equi-distant time wise between the Miamisburg and Springboro one. I am surprised they were hit by this because the Springboro restaurant has been pretty dang tight with allowing people in, distancing, etc. When I picked up some carry out over the weekend, they send you a text when it is 5 minutes prior to pick up, and they have a station outside to check your text before allowing you in.

Never thought I would identify with this, but I so do LOL

Another difference is when at a bar or restaurant, you are shoving things in your mouth, whether it is food, peanuts, popcorn, drinks, etc. A mask is pretty cumbersome in that environment vs. a school where you are only doing that during lunch.

Right I always forget about the Springboro one because it's in that back corner of that shopping center. So inconspicuous.

I am at Dairy Queen across the street more often than I care to admit, being fat and all.

Heathens!

Huntsville Hospital CEO David Spillers: we now have 5 children in the hospital with COVID-19, “some only months old.” One patient is a 4-year-old with cancer @whnt

— Melissa Riopka (@MelissaRiopka) July 1, 2020

Schools are attended by children. I don't see how you can possibly, I don't care how much you stagger (and for logistical reasons, there's only so much you can do) have effective social distancing for hours with dozens/hundreds of children of that age.

The contact tracing could theoretically be done better there, but that makes the assumption that we are actually doing contact tracing competently and at scale (we're not). So that part of it is a non-issue practically speaking.

"We're Texas!"

Texas Lt. Gov. blasts Fauci as state coronavirus cases rise: ‘I don’t need his advice’

Dan Patrick is a fucking moron.

Social distancing isn't the be all end all though. You can have the kids regularly hand wash, wear masks, go outside, open windows, stay in smaller groups, not share equipment, control bathroom trips, etc...

I don't think you have kids, trust me when I say it never ceases to amaze me when I visit school and see just how well the teachers have the kids trained.

I just think it is a bit absurd of a statement to compare schools to bars.

Says the guy who wants to sacrifice Grandma to the economy

Can confirm.

SI

the southern states and rural areas are indeed spijing later than i thought they would but it did finally happen.

it was inevitable.

who is dan patrick again?

Lt. Governor of Texas... not the guy on Sportscenter :D

Yeah I saw Dan Patrick trending and figured he got outed for sexual harassment from his ESPN days or something.

Based on the thread I figured he went on an anti-mask tirade. Which seemed random.

Daughters room mate went to a boys house. The boys room mate then tested positive. Mt daughter has a sore throat and stuffy nose. She goes to a clinic tomorrow to get tested. But wont find out results for 3 to 7 business days.

I thought they cut down the results waiting period.

And she is at her college and I havent been in contact with her for about 3 weeks.

I really hope she is OK.

Re: testing. I heard that with the uptick, some jurisdictions are reserving the quick results tests for healthcare workers and similar folks.

Please keep us posted.

Daughter going back to school is what worries me. How can you be a college student and not interact with friends and other students? It's much simpler to be quarantined with 3 other family members. Roommates/teammates and other students is a whole other matter.

The other thing is all of her classes are going to be online. What's the use? She's got softball so she has to be there, plus she is supposed to be doing in-class observations (education major), but she has no idea if local schools will be in-person or if they'll allow student teachers.

I have a buddy with a kid at UNC and he's about ready to pull him from school because he can't justify $50-60K/year for basically an online degree. Four of 6 classes are going to be online.

I am currently listening to a parents town hall for my son's college. They are going to keep the kids in a six person "pod" where they can be mask free but everywhere else will be masked.

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I'm one of the alumni interviewers for my alma mater (Emory), and reading between the lines, they are very worried that kids will be deferring, etc. We are getting lots of encouragement to keep reaching out and encouraging the admitted students to enroll/attend/etc.

So you if you date outside of your pod . . . ?

They will have to be creative.

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While you are at it, can you ask them to stop calling me to donate (Emory Law alum) ;)

The guy who was all for killing grandma to open up the economy a couple of months ago. Of course not his family, but yours.

Dan Patrick says opening economy is more important than saving lives | The Texas Tribune


SI

I love that line "There are more important things than living."

Because you know all that cool stuff you get to do when you are dead.

Michigan shut down the indoor bars again around Lansing and West Michigan.

Best analogy i read, explaining why College is just a tough one re: reopening: They are like giant, cruise ships on land (with all the extra Problems that brings).

The Summer of Magical Thinking – The Tattooed Professor


And a better way to think about this isn't on how good the measures at any 1 place are but how the level of community Transmission is and how you 'budget' your reopening:

Coronavirus: Close the bars. Reopen the schools. - Vox

There are a few reasons why I think schools are going to reopen regardless of what is happening. One, online education is a joke. Kids don't learn and they pretty much all end up with high grades regardless of what they learn or effort they give. Two, if parents are trying to go back to work, they need a place to put their kids. People are already complaining about the possibility of staggered days for this reason. Three, for colleges, online learning is also a joke, plus they have the further issue of cost. There is no reason to pay tens of thousands of dollars for a University of Phoenix education.

They're going to try to make it work somehow because they have to.

They can try all they want, I just don't see any way we can have schools open en masse, not have a vaccine, and expect that to work. It's going to create a lot of community spread and they'll be forced to shut them down again at some point. I don't see any way around that.

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1278656673754820608?s=20

University of Alabama students playing "Who can catch the virus first"

Myrtle Beach and N.Myrtle now have mask regulations.

I thought you were being sarcastic until I clicked the link.

I don't want to adult anymore.

Herman Cain, former Presidential candidate, hospitalized with COVID.

Just nine days after being with the President in Tulsa. With no masks, of course.

I dunno - teenagers are going to teenage, right? And there will be scary "local news"-esque stories about how it's all the rage with kids when like 99% of them would think it's stupid and never do something.

SI

I’m a high school principal. 1500 students. I think we are going to reopen in some way shape or form. I don’t think we will be open long. If 5-10 students come back infected. Attend classes. Eat lunch. Just by happenstance it’ll spread petty quickly. We will do all we can to follow guidelines, etc. But 1500 kids in relatively close proximity to 15-30 others for 6 hours a day probably won’t go well.


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I swear - anyone who thinks school is going to do any better than fits and spurts just doesn't know children or something

SI

My daughter's HS is over 2000. I can't imagine they won't have to go to on-line at some point. Just one positive test screws things up. How many people would one student come in contact with during a typical day? Has to be in the hundreds.

Oh to be a fly on the wall during the discussions between the Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Texas when the decision was made on the mask order.

In 4 months are most people (Trump included?) going to be wearing masks and a bunch of them will be pretending they've been doing it all along like there was never this culture war thing about masks for a couple of months? I mean, fine - let's just get masks on everyone as that's the important part. But are we just going to pretend the last 2 months of arguing about masks didn't happen?

SI

no shame whatsoever I'm sure. Just as Peter Tork said in 60s...the establishment will coopt things said by people, adopt them as their own and then put down the originators

I'm supposed to student teach in the fall, we'll see how that goes with the current state of things.

I believe some of the high schools in Gwinnett are 3k+ students (Parkview, Brookwood). I think Lakeside down the street from me (Dekalb) is over 2k.

According to worldometers, although US cases are increasing, deaths are still well under 1K. This may be due to deaths not catching up to recent spikes (e.g. not 2-3 weeks yet).

Hoping for the best and it would be (relatively) great if we see fatality % less than the first wave.

Wife's PS school starts in mid-Aug and so does daughter's college. By that time we'll know if the second wave is better-same-worse than the first. I think it'll be better as healthcare professionals will be better prepared and there is at least one treatment that helps some.

I am also somewhat relieved to know the first wave did not cause significant shortages of food supply (or at least not for long) and only for n95 masks, sanitizers and (initially) paper products.

There is no doubt it will be less (not that one can tell, since nobody knows live the actual infections nor all actual deaths), no reason that wouldn't be the case with months of experience to treat it and prevent the Introduction and spread in Retirement homes but also hospitals with lots of improvements in protocolls, setup and PPE coverage.

However, what becomes more and more clear is that the Virus Mutation oft cited is not a "spreads more = less deadly = case closed" thing. Because most importantly: That switch did not happen recently, which it quite often sounds like when you read about it especially on Social Media, it happened in February and early March. (and those samples used in the study will largely be from hospitals due to accesibility. So those sampled on say March 1st will likely have caught it a while earlier and are. Reversely, the lag from those samples to death would not be that big.)
Italy and France for example exclusively had the new 'Version' before even March 1st. In the US, New York had this as the dominant form whereas the West Coast had the old version for a good while as the dominant form or even until the end of the study period in May.
Others like Spain or England did have both running alongside for a bit, but also had it switch very early.
And the version currently devastating latin america is also the new one. (Adjusting Excess deaths to US population numbers, Peru would be at 400k dead and Mexico at about 300k, although the latter is a guess based on only Mexico City Data and how it compares to the national total on official covid19 deaths).

It might well explain why the early West Coast outbreaks or early asian outbreaks outside China were comparatively easy to control or why englands seemed OKish for a bit before the outbreak took off like mad in a matter of 2,3 days (Spain on the other hand does not seem to be explained by that).
Of course all these are limited samples and there might be significant differences within a country. But still, does shed some light here.

Study

The virus itself really seems to have done one thing: Get better at spreading. The lower death count might be down to 'us' getting better at dealing with it in a variety of ways. Which is great, but it staying that way would then be entirely dependent on 'us' continuing to do so.

It might also explain why the first initially imported cases (no matter if in January, December or even earlier) did not create an outbreak but somewhat petered out and/or stayed at a level not setting off alarm bells. Of course, the original version was presumably enough to devastate Wuhan, so what the hell do i know ...

Oh, the irony.

Sonora health officials seek tougher border restrictions with Arizona over COVID-19 spread

"I would build a great wall, and nobody builds walls better than me, believe me, and I’ll build them very inexpensively. I will build a great great wall on our southern border and I’ll have Mexico pay for that wall."

4D chess, everyone!

SI

I took the boys to the 2nd day that Kings Island was open today. They still have plans to open to for single day tickets on the 12th, but I could totally see it getting shut down again without a whole lot of work. It was in the 90's today, little shade, and the mask didn't make it easier. It was hot and irritating. The rides were alright though.

As for how do you operate a theme park with Covid....they did as good as they could. Spacing in the lines, sanitizer stands, every employee with masks, wiped down all the rides about every 30 minutes or so. There was only one part that was kind of a joke inside the air conditioned food house. The spaced out the seating, cutting it in half, and even with less people let in the park, there wasn't enough seating. As soon as a table got up, someone was right there to sit down. They only had two people to wipe down tables which was a joke. It was just not enough space, not enough people to clean tables. They should have had at least 10 people for the size of the room there.

I didn't ride it, but the boys said Orion (7th giga-coaster in the world) was the bomb.

Ah King's Island - setting of one of the more memorable Brady Bunch episodes

YouTube

(I know the most useless things).

So many childhood memories. My dad use to take me there years ago. I use to love the dark indoor roller coaster, and the beast. I would love to go back there when the world returns to normal some day. It was like early 90s when I went.

Used to love going there for P and G day.

Don't worry, he's kept more promises than he made! Over 100%!

I'm going Tuesday. My kids are ready for Orion, I bet they drag me on it! Then we head to Disney on Wednesday for 12 days. Staying on property, in DVC. I figure if anyone can keep a park clean, it's Disney. I don't know.....

I wish I could have ridden it, but I'm a big guy. I just can't get that second click on the seat. The boys said it's the best ride in the park now. Which makes me happy, Banshee is my favorite, and it's pretty easy to get on now.

They would have to pay ME twice what a ticket costs to spend a day at an amusement park in the summer while wearing a mask. Especially like today when it's in the 90s.

I've been a big fan of Dr. Gottlieb and here he states the truth. This will be the greatest failure of political leadership in the country's history.

It being an election year was always going to hurt any efforts, too.

Harvard University’s freshman class will be invited to live on campus this fall, while most other undergraduates will be required to learn remotely from home, the Ivy League school announced Monday.

University officials decided to allow only 40% of undergraduates on campus in an effort to reduce density and prevent the spread of COVID-19. All freshmen will be invited, along with some other students who face challenges learning from afar.

All classes will be taught online, however, regardless of where students live. Students living on campus would live in dorm rooms but continue taking their classes remotely, the university said.

All course instruction (undergraduate and graduate) for the 2020-21 academic year will be delivered online

I still don't see the NFL getting the entire season cancelled, too much TV money on the table.

They're probably like "What's the use in having a season? Nobody(Here) is going to watch now that we've included the 'black national anthem' before Week 1 games."