Wolves do all sorts of things.

Sometimes they go after someone who's getting a little too close for comfort.

Sometimes they go after someone who's historically a good player that they're afraid of.

Sometimes they go after someone in a one-on-one battle in hopes of kicking off a groundswell against the other in the argument.

In this game, they may be trying to pick off the STARS chief.

I always reanalyze my positions. I'm not perfect and don't know everything obviously.. however I haven't changed my opinon that I think Fouts or St.Cronin (or possibly both) are bad. I think mathematically its my best play for the day.

Alan you must have the easiest job in the world because you are consitently online during the day.

I agree, I don't think kwhit's vote itself is very meaningful to us.

What I think is interesting to think about is if last night the wolfs thought it was meaningful though. If both cronin and BrianD were on their team would Kwhit moving from one to the other be enough to scare them into thinking he was the chief?

Would they have risked outing BrianD and/or Cronin in the process of eliminating what seemed to them like a likely police chief?

I currently am leaning to probably not, and they probably killed kwhit due to him being in a group of likely chiefs who was also an experienced and quality player, unrelated to BrianD alltogether.

I am a network engineer for a 15,000 person company worldwide. I handle the integration of companies that we aquire as well as other various day to day network type implementation project planning.

Probably 40% of my time is spent in meetings or conference calls where I can just sit on here while I listen to the call.

Right now we are in quarter end which implements a freeze time this weekend where the entire IT organization is not allowed to make any changes this weekend that could risk us having problems with numbers for the quarter. That means no changes this weekend, and very little planning this week for this weekend.

So this week is my light week :)

Just a few notes:
While I should be home before the deadline tonight, it will still take a few mins for me to record all the votes to make sure I got everything correct.

Also, the night 2 deadline will be 7am as I have to work early in the morning for a change :( If anyone has a problem with that let me know, conditional orders will certainly be allowed tonight if that helps.

I think today we have to start working on these psuedo-alliances we see. The Lathum/Fouts connection bothers me. I'm going to wait for Fouts, like hoops is, but I'm concerned. Cronin doesn't seem like a bad guy to me. If he's a zombie he just went way risky way early, which doesn't seem like him. I think it's more likely he was just trying to stir up day one discussion and was acting stupid by contradicting himself -- self contradictions aren't a sign of wolfish but of just making mistakes, which I would argue a bad guy would be on higher alert for.

Alan...I don't know. He hasn't done TOO suspicious at this point -- the bullet kill yesterday was a perfectly reasonable kill, and being suspicious of cronin at this point is quite fair; I don't think he'd be an awful lynch. The amount of crap he's putting out there about the chief does bother me, though.

Overall I think we need to stop focusing on the chief so much. We're not going to be able to magically divine who the chief is today, or what his intent is, NOR DO WE WANT TO. All we're doing is giving the bad guys more information that they can actively use at this point. I'm all for us coming up with ideas on how the chief would be working, but please keep them to yourselves for a few days, so that when our bumbling around does get the chief killed we can actually use his (or her) death for some productive use.

Now that I've mentioned that I am slightly more suspicious of Alan. But right now the Fouts/Lathum thing bothers me the most.

Going with the idea of zombies trying to pick off the STARS chief - KWhit could have been a person who identified a zombie with his vote. They worry that he may be the Police Chief and take their shot that night.

That theory still holds because he switched his vote to Cronin - who could potentially be in the same faction, but definitely remains unidentified. If he had switched instead to Bullet they would not have had to worry about him last night.

You'd have to assume bother cronin and brian are zombies, because umbrella can't do night kills....it's theoretically possible but damn that's unlikely, and I think they would figure we would go on to bigger and better things other than chasing down Brian based on a weak day 1 vote that got rescinded. In other words, if KWhit were alive would we care about the vote? My most likely scenario is that they took a night kill on someone they didn't expect to be guarded.

My main point on KWhit is this: if he WAS right about Brian wouldn't it make more sense to leave him alive and let the vote die in the mess that is Day One? I don't get the sense that KWhit was going to stalk Brian down, but he was just going with the small byte of information available. Although this is on the assumption that the wolves would think it that far through, but it seems really weak to me.

Thats what my thinking was about BrianD when I was asked. I think right now its a reach though, and very easy to setup BrianD in killing Kwhit last night.

I agree. thats why I said I was leaning towards it not meaning much. But like I said someone asked me my thoughts about BrianD, so I answered.


Interesting though that it was Cronin asking me about BrianD.. because if the theory that brianD was bad is true, Cronin too would have been bad in that scenerio.

Alan, you asked for thoughts on what other people were thinking, so I'll give you mine. Right now I am leaning toward st.cronin. I had the same thought as you that the chief would not have voted for Bullet, so st.cronin or Fouts probably got the chief's vote. I don't really think NTN is the chief, so that leaves st.cronin.

The only reason I hesitate about this vote is that it is possible that everyone on the block yesterday was good and the chief didn't want to out himself/herself and voted for a STARS member.

I also didnt really think ntndeacon was the chief which is why I voted Cronin earlier. Im not against switching to fouts though, and I heavily considered it when lathum quickly plopped a vote down on Cronin with me after blasting me and my ideas.

I still am tempted to switching to fouts, but I kind of want to see what people do today, and I partially wonder if we have a fouts vs cronin run off, is it umbrella vs zombies? If so, what type of actions will we see from people trying to save their own if its close.

I agree with Tyrith on this. It doesn't make sense to call more attention to Brian, I think that was pretty clearly a typical day 1 first vote. I could see more connection from thinking he might be the chief based on bullet being good, or from some connection to cronin. But it also seems just as likely that with multiple night action roles that they tried to find someone who was unlikely to be guarded.

I would personally much rather vote for Fouts than cronin right now. I just don't see cronin being bad and him playing in a way that get himself incriminated so quickly...although we'll probably have to kill him eventually so we can look at the voting records.

If this is how you feel, then vote for Fouts. Its easy to say thats what you would rather do, but most people forget what is said. They don't typically forget votes as easily.

This goes back to me not wanting to put in the first vote. I'm definately not sure Fouts is a bad guy. What if he comes up good? People will use it as an excuse to kill _me_ for putting in the first vote, even though I just get to play more and want to actually do something. No, right now I'm going to sit because I have no assurances people are going to be reasonable with the voting records.

Fouts seems pretty much like an unknown to me at this point. I don't remember getting any strong vibes from him yesterday and he did end up with just the one early vote. I guess I don't feel strongly enough about him yet to condemn him or to stand with him.

In this game, if people want to kill you, they will find a reason. :)

Very true, but I'm gonna make them work for it!

If you want any tips on how to get people to vote for you, let me know. I can help you out :)

Your answer is in your question. Today he voted for me, therefore he is not the police chief. I'm going to go back and look at who some of the early votes for bullet were - I think we'll find some bad guys there.

Gone till around 3 EST.

I don't see a lot of reasons to be an active poster but a timid voter, Tyrith.

That said, my vote isn't going out until someone posts information from last night, Fouts shows up, or Cronin answers my question from this morning on why he is now sure that Lathum is not the Police Chief.

Lathum not being the police chief doesn't mean Cronin is a good guy.

(180) Alan votes Bulletsponge (1)
(253) Hoopsguy votes Bulletsponge (2)
(257) spleen votes bulletsponge (3)
(273) Tyrith votes Bulletsponge (4)
(276) Sndvls votes Bulletsponge (5)
(281) BrianD votes Bulletsponge (6)
(283) Saldana votes Bulletsponge (7)
(286) Mr. Wednesday votes Bulletsponge (8)
(316) St.cronin votes Bulletsponge (10)
(343) Chief Rum votes Bulletsponge (11)

Based on this, as well as his vote for me today, I am going to advocate lynching Alan T today.

If I end up lynched, let us note that Alan T was vote #1 on 2 different Stars players.


unvote Lathum
vote AlanT

Until we get some better information, from a seer or a dead Police Chief, I suggest we just go down this list - lynch AT today, hoopsguy tomorrow, etc.

hoops I answered your question in post #523

hoops,i would assume cronin is drawing that belief from the fact that lathum voted for him yesterday...if lathum where the CP, he wouldnt have been the 3rd vote on Cronin (this logic only works from the perspective of cronin as a STARS member)

as far as the use of the logic of "the police chief would never have voted for bullet yesterday"....that is unbelievably flawed.....it was only last freaking game that not only did lathum vote for a fellow cowboy, he handed him over to the town and tied the freaking noose himself. i am rather surprised that Alan is ignoring that fact considering that he was the GM and watched it happen from the front row :confused:

Lathum's vote yesterday did not convince me of anything. Otherwise, I completely agree with you.

He isnt talking about lathum's vote from yesterday. He is saying that he doesn't understand how I can say that the Police chief would not be voting for Stars to give us an accurate trail to look at upon his death when just last game Lathum voted his own team.

I personally don't see it as the same scenerio, since the police chief's benefit to his team primarily comes upon his death, whereas Lathum's move in that game was for deception, but you aren't the only one who is bringing this up today.

Cronin, the "lynch everyone in line on Bullet" is obviously a comfortable strategy for you since you are 10th in the list. As the person who is 2nd I'm less inclined to support this.

I would argue that the people who were involved with the surge of votes on Bullet when it was in the 5-5 range would make at least as much sense than the early voters on this one.

If you are in fact a member of STARS then the same logic you apply to Alan - voted 1st for two different STARS members - would apply equally to Lathum. I would be more inclined to go in this direction personally, although you don't have to twist my arm too hard to go after Alan.

Lathum has already set the table for you and Alan, Cronin. He said that he wants to gun for Alan next if you show up innocent.

Thats because it will deflect heat from his boy Fouts. :)

It would actually not be surprising at all to me to learn that Lathum and Alan were zombies. Remember Lathum crying wolf at Alan earlier? And then voting for me? hmmmm

I wouldnt be suprised if you were right about half of that.



See the fun thing about this game and what I have done is it feels like now I'm getting attacked by both Umbrella and the zombies :) And truth be told, it might not be a stretch to think Zombies + Umbrella = same number of players now as Stars. I think right now though the Stars still have 1 or 2 players on the others combined.

So it looks like we held off the early showdown until day 2 -- that's progress!

It seems fairly obvious that Alan, cronin, hoops and Lathum can't all be on the same side (I'm not even looking at the Fouts angle yet either). Problem is as always who is who. Or which is which. Or whatever. Or the simple fact that it strikes me that a zombie wouldn't want to call attention to themselves this early, and that's really where I'd like to focus with my vote.

I do agree with hoops that the most likely bad guys are found on the votes for bullet after the 5-5 tie. So I need to start there, right after I go back through Alan's call out posts from yesterday, which is right after I finish this next project.

Sigh. WW makes my head hurt.

Black... and blue...
And who knows which is which
And who is who

:)

I'll roll with the st cronin or Fouts logic for now.

Vote st. cronin

In the meantime, I have a Pet Shop Boys concert tonight, so after 5 or so, I'll be out for the evening.

-Anxiety

Path, those votes do not mean jack if Cronin is STARS. If we really want to learn if there was value in the lynch yesterday we have to go after Cronin. I would expect that we are going to come back to this again at some point if we do not decide to do it today.

This is only true if you assume I'm bad. Which I'm not. If you assume bullet and I are both Stars, which we are, then the bad guys had no incentive to vote either way.

Let me say this loud and clear:

The one person we know for sure is NOT the police chief is Alan T. Lynching anybody else carries a double risk that not only is that person stars, but he is the police chief. The police chief cannot reveal, and it would be a disaster to lynch him on day 2.

You aren't the police chief, don't even try to pretend to be him trying to get someone else to out themselves in a way that it makes it obvious who it is.

The funny thing is I was second guessing myself if I wanted to stay on you or switch to Fouts because of where Lathum put his vote, but then the way you worded this trying to sow seeds of doubts into people's minds that you may be the police chief when you clearly are not sealed the deal for me. I'll likely keep my vote on you.

And I will take this a step further, if you somehow do push this to be a you vs me lynch today, I would rather take the death then the chief somehow trying to save me.

Since I dont have any special importance this game, my death likely will mean you are next Cronin (probably followed by Fouts and Lathum)

I give up. Lynch me. None of you know how to play this game.

unvote AlanT
vote st.cronin

This will be the last time I provide any analysis for a looooooong time. All it does is get my lynched.

That reminds me -- I'm planning on running a short game at some point based on Dark Side of the Moon. It's totally ripped off from another site, but it was a pretty good scenario.

Hopefully this will be a good learning experience for me :)

Fair point by you and hoops, if I had been taking my time when I posted I might have realized that.

The next off the top of my head question then becomes: Cronin, doesn't that mean that until it is made clear that you are good doesn't this cloud any theories anybody puts forward? I'd really prefer not to vote for you because I'm leaning that you're good -- but if this question is going to need to be proven at some point why not settle it now?

Its like the reverse Schmidty strategy!

-Anxiety

Well, its more a desperation move. If he throws a fit , then people will second guess themselves and wonder "Gee maybe he is really just a frustrated villager" and vote elsewhere.

Or they will allow it to affect their judgement on whom to vote for, and instead of looking at all the choices and making a logical deduction they will say well I don't want to be a fool or idiot, so Im not going to do that!

I don't mind being an idiot, because I already plan on invoking the schmidty gambit on day 5 :)

I forsee one of two things happening here:

1) Enough people doubt it to the point they look elsewhere to make it a race and at which time he will jump back in and move his vote somewhere to save himself.

2) Enough votes will stack up against him where he and his team mates will feel its a forgone conclusion and decide to get their votes in too to try to build trust for voting for a bad guy.

I personally was hoping today there would be somewhat of a race between people and not just an everyone pile on one person day. In my mind the most ideal scenerio is we have fouts v cronin where its umbrella vs zombies and we can learn alot by other outside party's maneuvering.

Funny stuff, Anxiety.

Cronin, lets talk this through if you are STARS. I'm going to come at it from my perspective on the game so there will be assumptions in here that I am STARS. If you choose to ignore these, that is fine.

1.) Lathum comes out and votes for me on Day 1. Clearly not the Chief, allegiance unknown
2.) You come out shortly thereafter, saying that an early vote = bad guy or Chief, then vote early for me. You are clearly not the Chief, allegiance unknown
3.) You become the 2nd choice candidate yesterday in a runoff with a hero (Bullet)
4.) You come out today and say that the strategy should be to look for the people who voted early for Bullet, although that makes zero sense if it was STARS vs STARS as you assert
5.) You now say that Lathum is not the Chief because he voted for you early - the EXACT argument I made yesterday when he voted for me


If you are STARS, then it would make sense to look at the people who advocated the inclusion of both you and Bullet yesterday, not just the people who pushed for Bullet.

So, what am I missing with this analysis that should help me believe you are STARS and that we should be starting to look at new candidates rather than considering voting records from yesterday?

You could always change your vote to Fouts to push the race idea a bit. I would do it for you, but I already talked about voting for st.cronin and since people were trying to link me with him...

Vote st.cronin

I thought about it, but two reasons I won't.

1) I have accumulated my share of critics whom probably are a collection of zombies, umbrellas and misguided Stars who would most likely use it as some excuse that I'm trying to weasel out of my vote in case it goes bad, or whatever.

2) St. Cronin's play trying to make people have doubts about voting for him just in case he might be the police chief when he isn't removed any doubt that I had in my mind of my vote for him in the first place

I vote we ban cronin from WW if he's going to be so unsporting about this. It's not like everyone was advocating lynching you for the sake of lynching you do, dude. Grow up.

Honestly, I don't think cronin is a bad guy, I think he's a good guy that made a massive fuck-up yesterday and is unacceptably frustrated because he can't dig himself out of the hole. We can't just narrow beam on him like this, it's not gonna get us anywhere. I'm still advocating lynching him at some point because we're gonna need to look at voting records later, but if we do it now and he comes up good we're resetting the game information wise, just down four good guys.

Eh, he's probably either just upset that this day/game hasn't quite like he envisioned it or he's using this as a strategy to try to draw attention to other people (We have seen the self vote used before successfully to avoid being lynched).

Either way he's a good player, contributes a good bit in WW games that he runs and in games he plays in. Just this game I think we had the upper hand on him is all.

Definite over-reaction, Tyrith. He has a right to be frustrated by the last couple of games. But if he does elect to take his ball and go home (vote self, not participate in conversation) then people have a right to factor that into future games.

Cronin, if you really are STARS lets try to work through this. I don't want to go down three men with the lynch today. If you aren't STARS, well keep doing what you are doing :)

Honestly, I'm sick of self voting in these games. If you take the ball and go home even though there are still people that are trying to help you out that just shows you don't care about anyone else in the game but yourself. So feel free to quit, just don't come back for a while because I don't want to deal with the relapse case.

I am in no way advocating the chief say anything, but it must be frustrating for him/her at this point. He/She knows if st.cronin is STARS or now, but really can't (and shouldn't) say anything.

Chief couldn't say anything anyway, it'd constitute a role reveal and the chief would probably burst into flame or something.

I think we've put way too much of a focus on the chief in this early going. We really can't use the chief for anything for at least a couple of more games, and like I said earlier, any speculation we put out there is just giving the bad guys more stuff to analyze so they can eat his brains before we're going to get much out of him. Think of him as a seer except that he actually has to be dead before we can use him -- you wouldn't go out talking about who you think the seer might be, would you?

can someone please explain to me how fouts and I became linked? I don't understand how I was trying to "save" a guy who had no votes and no heat on him?

Alan. I listened to Alan connect the dots...which might have been a mistake. His entire theory on Day 1 has kind of gone too far at this point, I think.

My availability for the evening is in question, so I need to vote. I will definitely be unavailable from 7:30pm until after deadline. So, I'll just do this.

VOTE Alan T

I voted for Alan because I think he theory is totally bunk at this point in the game. He talks about being disappointed in all of the smart players in the game because they haven't come out with this. Well, I know he is a smart guy, so I don't see how he can have so much faith in something so flawed. He gets my vote because he is strong in his convictions with his theory and that doesn't make any sense to me.

well in post #507 you say the "connection" between fouts and myself bothers you the most. Where do you see a connection?

Maybe alanT can answer that question? Point out where you see it and give me a chance to explain.

Hoops, you also are suspect of me, can you explain why? I'll be here pretty much all day to discuss.

To be honest? I was mostly following Alan's analysis. I think we need to kill someone out of all this weird speculation crap just to see where we stand, but I don't think we're gonna get much out of killing cronin because it's gonna be a total dogpile. So at this point I'm starting to go back to Alan, as much as I don't want to.

He's right, though... if you were the police chief, you probably wouldn't be pushing the game as hard and you certainly wouldn't have pushed to have bulletsponge included in a runoff, right?

I'm not trying to align with st.cronin, but I think at this point we need to branch out from the pairing we had yesterday.

The best way to describe what I'm thinking right now is that I'm not thinking as much as I should be. Sorry guys, I'm just being kind of fuzzy and stupid.

Based on your actions this morning. I come out leaning towards voting fouts and explain why, you jump all over me for my thoughts, but then when I finally decide to go with cronin for the day you suddenly jump on the vote with me and leave the discussion with the comment that you'll go along with me for the cronin vote, but then if cronin is good, we need to go after me next (and ignore fouts).

Those actions just implanted some connection between you two in my head.

I already stated that I am not the police chief. Im not quite sure what you are referring to here.

Are you suggesting an alternative?

Like I said before, if you feel that way then vote for me. I already stated that it wont be a huge loss to my team (Whatever you think my team is) for me to die today.

What my death will accomplish likely is for people to turn right around and go after cronin tommorrow and then possibly fouts the following day. It won't clear anything here.

But I fully encourage people to make this a voting race so its not an everyone jump in on the bad guy and make votes meaningless. We can then see if I get lynched who exactly it was that doomed the STARS player that had nothing to gain from coming out with this theory and everything to lose (drawing attention, getting possibly lynched) by this.

So if you truly want to vote for me, go right ahead. Im not going to get frustrated, I will ask you for your reasons and try to poke holes in them and such.

Sigh. And now that I go back and read it I do have to acknowledge that Lathum's rage died down when cronin became the target.

I'm not voting for cronin. I suspect he's gonna be lynched, there's a chance he comes up bad, but so be it. I don't think we gain anything by lynching Alan today either, when he's going to keep drawing votes for a while and we can use him for a vote record monkey.

So that leads me back to Fouts. And while I don't like Alan's pushing, there might be something there. We need to make a race out of this to see if someone goes screwy, and I do kind of want to keep Alan in the game. If the race is gonna happen it probably needs to start now.

VOTE FOUTS

In all fairness I did this a few games back because I was also frustrated. I actually didn't get killed that day...I was suprised too. I then took a game off and got back in. sometimes it's needed out of sheer frustration sometimes. I finally was night killed though I think

True, and I probably did overreact. But self-voting isn't fair to the other people in the game. Instead dump the vote on someone, go ahead and leave for the rest of the day, and if you're that frustrated you can drop out of the game and someone can take your place. It's really not fair to your teammates if you give up.

it's not alway a give up case though. I actually have only self voted once and like I said it was due to complete frustration. That could be why it was done, it also could be a rouse to fool us which I've seen used and work in the past too. If you dump the vote and survive you will be questioned about it later on as well so the safest vote is on yourself in the case of frustration. I guess the other side is if he does die and is bad it gives no one any analysis as well. I think dropping out because of frustration is total bush league though, and no I wouldn't say self voting falls in that category in all cases.

It might just be my paranoid nature, but I always expect a reaction like that to be well calculated.

Alan, I didn't jump on you for wanting to vote for fouts. I jumped on you because of the notion that the police chief wouldn't vote for a member of stars when it was quiet possible BOTH were members of starts.

Then you act like it was some big risk you were taking voting on St. Cronin like you had some revelation. I voted for Cronin yesterday and saw no reason to change my vote. If you look back through previous games I usually vote the same person the first 2 days unless there is a reason not to. Don't act like I was "going along with you" because that's not the case at all. If anything YOU are going along with ME since you voted bulletsponge yesterday.

If you're frustrated and you vote yourself then leave that's giving up to me. I know it's been talked about in the past that self voting should be banned, and I absolutely agree with that idea. If someone is going to be totally frustrated and not try to play well then they should quit for the good of the team, and for themselves -- don't stay in the game if it's making you feel worse! This is supposed to be fun!

Oh, and Brian, it wasn't calculated because I was, and still am, rather pissed. This entire discussion, at least on my side, is totally OOC.

I definitly dont think St. Cronin is a STARS and the only reason i voted for him yesterday was because he was the worse of the two evils in my opinions. I just think Alan is trying to sound o smart so that everybody believes everything he says. Well I am not buying it. Plus I am still angry that he didn't let me be a cowboy in Tombstone.

Vote AlanT

I am close to voting for Tyrith just because he is whining too much, but I am going to refrain.

I knew I should have gone back and clarified that. I meant that I thought st.cronin's reaction was calculated. If he turns out to be bad, I won't be surprised at all if he comes back smiling at a radical gambit that didn't work. I could be totally off though.

And now I'm close to voting to you for thinking about voting that way.

Ok, back from lunch, sorry about the meltdown. Still working my way through the thread, but I like working with hoops.

1. My thinking yesterday, which has been either deliberately misrepresented by people, or which I did not explain clearly was this - the FIRST vote on any given player, and the first vote overall, were MOST likely to come from either the police chief or umbrella/zombie. That vote came from Lathum. The reason I didn't vote for Lathum was, if he WAS the police chief, the possibility of a bandwagon/landslide vote made that too risky a move. So my thinking was, vote for the guy he votes for - if hoops turns up good, then I think it's better than even odds that Lathum is bad. Then today Lathum votes for ME first - so I know he's not the police chief. Hence, he's high on my list.

4. The early votes for bullet were BEFORE it was clear that it would be a stars v stars contest. This was hashed out before between me and I forget who - somebody said, wouldn't it be the the LATE votes that are more likely to be bad guys? And I said "no, because the late votes were choosing between stars and stars." The EARLY votes, and in particular the FIRST vote for bullet, I think are most likely to be non-stars.

5. If you can make the argument, why can't I? You say you're stars, I say I'm stars. Neither one of us knows about the other one.

I personally agree with Tyrith on the self-voting thing.

unvote st.cronin
vote AlanT

I will be around for a little less than an hour. I suspect Lathum and AlanT at the moment.

So, cronin, where are you gonna go? Because I really want to make this a race situation.

I'm referring to st.cronin's post saying that you are not the chief, which I was taking to be making a logical inference rather than just taking you at your word.

Not at this point, no.

I'd rather not vote for st.cronin or Alan.

I don't have a read on Fouts.

I have another person who would interest me as a possible candidate, but as we're playing a little close to the vest on the whole chief thing, I'm not comfortable getting into that yet.

I have class tonight. I will probably be back before the deadline, but not much before the deadline.

And yes, Mr. W is correct - we know AlanT is not the police chief because of his vote yesterday. There is NO other player that we can all agree that that is true.

Sigh, sadly I've kind of reached this point too.

You are saying this because he was the first to vote for Bullet, right?

I'm not sure I agree with this reasoning--I disagree that the first vote on any given player is particularly more likely to be from Umbrella or a zombie--but at least it makes your actions make sense.

Again, I don't know about the first vote, but I think there's something to your argument here about early votes.

See, I don't understand this. If you suspect somebody of being a zombie, go ahead and name him. How can you naming a suspect possibly lead anybody to the chief?

Because my reasoning is entirely based on a particular theory of something the chief would have done -- my reason for selecting the candidate points directly to a possible chief.

YES

Ah, werewolf. :D

Thought so, just wanted to make sure I didn't miss anything.

But you don't have to elaborate on your reasoning.

Cronin's reasoning is sound, Alan is more likely to be a bad guy -- the fact that he isn't the police chief mathematically means there are fewer good slots for him to occupy. Meaning you have a marginal advantage over anyone else. The same is true, with diminshing chances, for the people that voted for bullet in order. If cronin is also good then after the first few votes it doesn't really matter because of the race situation, which would also explain the lack of late movement yesterday.