I think it might be better for you if you give more of a draft recap. That way you don't tip your hand too much.

It appears teh league is taking a week off to sort out its administrative issues. So, unless I have some "filler" Material until then, no updates for a while.

*damn*

It appears that next Friday will be the next meaningful date for the league -- when we advance to free agency, and get our first look at the rookie class. Until then, the FOFL is settling in some new members, and getting a few rules ironed out.

Focus on: Fossilized Wide Receiver

As we trudge toward the actual offseason in the FOFL, I’m interested in our WR position. We are a team that is undergoing some rebuilding effort, led by a very promising young QB. Historically, we have been a pass-first team, and with Brent Sedor taking the snaps, I’m inclined to move in that direction again once it makes sense. We will need some players for Sedor to throw to… the obvious thing to do would be to invest in youth at the WR position. That leaves our incumbent players in a bit of a limbo. Specifically, I want to take a look at our team career receiving leader, Justin Berkey:



(Please forgive the color scheme, I have been fiddling with it…not sure I like the gold pattern there, really, but it’s definitely better than Dallas Cowboys blue and silver)


In any event – Berkey is a pretty interesting case for us, especially since the options for us for this season really run the gamut.

THE PRO CASE: In short, Berkey is a guy who has been our starter at the flanker position since the team’s origins. He wears a championship ring (it was before that feature got added to the game) he won with us, and was a pretty important part of a pass-happy offense, which helps to explain his solid aggregate stats – three 1,000+ yard seasons in a row, and an average of about 60 yards a game as a starter. Nominally, he’s a pretty productive player, he stays healthy, and has a pretty good rating in the “route running” area, arguably the most important single thing for a WR in this game.

On this team, I am also obliged to mention that he adds other things – he is an affinity guy within our WR position group (which I have been following very closely, as I’m sure
regular readers already know) and I value that contribution. Plus, as a multi-year starter on this team (uninterrupted) he adds to our cohesion as well, which is potentially meaningful (though nobody seems to know how much so). So, he adds things to our team beyond his pure stats.

THE CON CASE: Berkey is a 12th year guy, who is due to hit the salary cap for nearly $3 million this year – about 3.2% of the total, which is a pretty good deal for a single non-superstar player. He has never really been an outstanding producer – his stats have mostly been a function of the type of offense we run. He is prone to dropping the football, and has more drops than TDs in nearly every year of his career, including a rather ghastly 2/9 margin last season.

I tend to look at my “receiver production” stat as a way to measure WR effectiveness… and Berkey generally doesn’t stack up all that well overall. His 5.6 from last year (calculated as yards receiving per pass target, with +20 per TD and –10 per drop) was a team low, and saw him get benched in the later season for a dimly talented journeyman (Jake Madison) who actually outperformed him.

Any time we spend putting Justin Berkey, a fading 12th year receiver, onto the field is time that could be dedicated to a younger player with some real potential. He is, arguably, a drag on the salary cap and the lineup, he doesn’t contribute meaningfully to special teams, and he is grossly overpaid for the privilege of his limited services.


And so… he represents a bit of a quandary for us at this stage, even before we consider free agency and the upcoming draft. WR is definitely a area we would like to target anyway, and the quality of player(s) available will likely dictate our overall course there – but in any event, there is probably a debate about what is best to do with Justin Berkey.

I see a few options ahead, some are contingent:


Cut or Trade Him – He likely has little trade value (this league doesn’t do much dealing anyway) so this wouldn’t be a move to gain much value, just to free up the roster slot and cap space. We’d clear out just about $2m in cap space with a cut/trade, and would eat $860K in bonus this year and next in the switch. Not too bad – especially if we could spin that cap space into a useful and younger free agent player.

Renegotiate Him – After playing in a reserve role last season, he put up career low stats, which probably will make him amenable to a reasonable renegotiation number. It will be a while until I can see what that is, but it’s possible that he’d drop down by perhaps $1 million this year – droppping his cap number to something like $1.8m instead of $2.8m (tough to be precise here, but I’m expecting something close to that much in potential savings). At that level, the amount we’d conserve by releasing him (rather than renegotiating) would become pretty trifling – perhaps only 0.5-0.8 million. And then, we’d have to think seriously about the cohesion and affinity benefits of keeping a long time veteran, still rather capable of playing, on the roster.

…and assuming he stays on the roster, we then have to consider what to do with him:

Start Him – If we don’t acquire a shining star to slot in as our starting flanker, then we’re left with Berkey and Jake Madison. It’s very tough to argue that Jake Madison is anything but a nice second stringer, and he has no apparent upside. On the surface, I’d expect Berkey to be more productive than Madison (last season’s second half notwithstanding), so perhaps Berkey ends up back in the lineup as a stabilizing influence for our young WR corps.

Slot Him – If we get back to passing heavily this year (still up in the air), we will likely go back to using a 3-WR set fairly often (replacing the heavy 2TE sets we shifted to for last season) and Berkey could end up as a useful contributor there (presumably behind a better talent in the starting FL role). He doesn’t have the ideal skill set for the slot receiver (too many drops, and not an outstanding 3rd down receiving rating) but he ought to be effective in that role.

Bench Him – If we do land a young player or two, it’s possible that we hold on to him solely as a good influence and injury alternative. He could be our 4th or 5th option at WR, and still make a decent contribution via affinity and veteran influence on cohesion.


All up in the air for this team leader. He ranks 11th in league history in receiving yards – so this is not a player of no consequence. But he is one of the dying breed, the players who were among the original league stock, most of whom are facing replacement at the hands of superior younger players. Long time readers have heard this lament before from me (that we started with an artificially poor group of players, and a heavy investment in this veterans put you behind the development curve of those teams who invested in young game-generated players) and we’re seeing it here.

So, Justin Berkey – this is your life. Hope your agent reads this as you contemplate your renegotiation stance for the coming year. We’d like to keep you around, and I doubt you’re going to find a better spot than right here, where you are already at home.

Entering The Grid

Well, since we have a bit of time to kill, I thought I’d go ahead and share something else, even more colorful than the previous screenshots. I have made no secret of my recent pursuits of affinity with my team here – and I thought it might be interesting to show the way that I have been tracking this.

Here’s a shot of the segment of my main Excel FOFL tracking sheet dedicated to following team chemistry (and a few related items):



I hope the image is sufficiently clear to follow. I didn’t include a legend, but I think things ought to be pretty easy to figure here:

Name Bolded = player is a position mentor
Name Yellowed = player is a group leader
Affinity Group Yellowed = player has affinity with group leader
Affinity Group In Red = player has conflict with group leader

The “Keeper?” column is nominally my idea of how important the player is to my long-range plans – I don’t keep that updated religiously, but it’s a nice tool to have when looking at affinities. I don’t want to invest too heavily in players who will likely be gone right away – and the one-star guys are presumably only around now for lack of better options.


In any event – if the tool excites anyone else (hopefully those not in my leagues) to suddenly start paying attention to affinities, also… that’s fine by me. But I doubt it. But as the league is just getting started with its offseason and I have a few days before we are likely to be active with anything at all, this seemed like a worthwhile way to spin my wheels a bit.

2010 Schedule

Well, another opportunity to spin my wheels a bit – we’ll have a look at the Chili Dogs schedule for the year ahead:


So, a fairly normal distribution – with a few extra home games down the stretch. It’s certainly possible that even if we are slightly improved from last season, we could start off at around 2-5 going into our week off. That would be discouraging, but there are probably only two games on this early list where we will be meaningful favorites.

We’ll try not to make too much of this, but it’s a concern. However, I do like the idea of having the defending division champs have to come to play at our place in the season finale this year. Hopefully, that will be a meaningful game – I might prefer it to be against Dodge City, but with Portland on top of the mini-mountain right now, we’re glad to get our shot at them with the season on the line.

Another Old Timer

In the spirit of my earlier discussion of WR Justin Berkey, I’ll use this opportunity to discuss another intriguing older player of ours – safety Mark Carr. Here’s his colorful snapshot:



Mark Carr was the second DB we took in the initial player draft in the FOFL, a decent veteran who I expected to immediately play at CB rather than safety. We were a combination loose man/bump team at that point, and he has solid skills for both coverages – a good match. (In retrospect, I’d have been smarter to switch him permanently to CB right away) He played most of tour first 3-4 seasons from the CB position, as we didn’t invest the high early picks needed to get top-skill guys there. After two years beset by injuries, he oddly became a model of consistency, making four years of straight starts at either CB or safety (as we started to bring aboard some legitimate talent at the CB position).

He was a very important part of our championship season in 2006, and emerged that year as a real team leader. He has posted a rather solid career stat line – the ratio of passes defensed against catches conceded is a very robust 0.45 – only elite players are likely to have a higher number there. So, he has definitely been a real asset for the team historically. Add in the facts -– as we switch to the current situation – that he is a mentor to our young safeties (we have two developing players there) and has an affinity with our group leader – and it’s hard to ask for a lot more from a veteran player.

Anyway – over the last two seasons, the CDogs have shifted to a nearly complete bump coverage system – with Carr rated at 89 there, he still fits in just fine. However, we have two promising young safeties in Jeff McCartney and Doug Schwantz, both of whom we project as long-term starters – sitting either of them on a “rebuilding” team in order to start an 11th year veteran made little sense to me last season, so Carr spent part of the year as a reserve.

However, as we got depleted in our defensive front with LB injuries in particular, we eventually worked him back into a regular role – Carr played the latter half of the season as a mull-time utility player of sorts. I slotted him as the starting weak-side linebacker (he’s not a great run stopper, but we were rather desperately thin at LB at that point), and also as a reserve safety behind S McCartney. McCartney was then slotted as the nickel cornerback—meaning that when Carr was pulled out in nickel situations, he was then slotted to play back as a safety – so he was essentially a full-time starter, in one place or another. It seemed to work – Carr posted respectable stats, and the defense played well during that stretch overall.

Looking ahead – I really would like better run support from the WLB position than when we get from Carr (rating of 39 in run defense, minus whatever penalty applies for playing substantially out of position). My best guess is that he will be the third safety, and perhaps either the nickel or dime cornerback for us. If we go through the whole season without injuries (hah!) that probably places him onto the field for 200 pass plays or so – about half-time duty. Meanwhile, he should continue to be a productive and effective player for us both on and off the field, and will contribute to the development of our younger players.

In contract terms, it’s possible that he re-negotiates down from his current cap hit of $2.9 million – but there’s not a lot of room, as nearly $1.3 of that is in bonus. We might see a little relief, to the tune of half a million or so… and I have no reservations about extending terms if they are reasonable.

This is a guy whose jersey number gets retired when it’s all over with us, and I can’t see a situation where he plays for anyone else.

Big Day Today

Today, we finally get our first look at the draft class, as well as our first look at free agent contract demands. Chesapeake has a deep interest in all of the above – we have (as you already know, if you’ve been reading) three first round picks this year, so we have our biggest stake in the draft ever, by far. We also will be trying to do some renegotiating to free up cap space to perhaps add a veteran player or two – I don’t expect a huge splash in free agency, but it would be nice to add a player here or there.

I don’t think I will be tipping my hand too much with draft-day strategy in advance (though I already have forecasted my main areas of need) – so the reports ahead will likely be more after-the-fact than what’s-coming-up in nature. Fair warning.


I do take a look at our potential for renegotiations… there’s always a trade-off here, as guys will drop their demands incrementally as the stages progress, but then you essentially eliminate the immediate benefit from cap-clearing. If we want cap space to use right now in the early stages, we need to put their offers in right away – but if we don’t spend it, then we will have wasted an increment that we could have gotten by postponing the renegs until later. Alas – I almost always do my major renegotiations right away, to at least give us flexibility in the FA market. Sometimes, that has proven costly, but it’s subtle when you piss money away that way at least there aren’t any constant reminders (like the “dead cap space” line on the salary report).


One quick note – WR Justin Berkey is going to make things tougher than expected for us, as his initial renegotiation amount would only save us around a half million. He’s not really worth a ton to us on the field, so a release would save us $2 million this year – that money might come in handy in free agency. Might be a tougher call than I had anticipated.

Of course, on first glance, I don’t see a single wide receiver worthy of being taken with an early draft pick in the whole draft (great) so we might have to postpone our “build the receiving corps” plan until a later date. Alas.

Let the Dealing Begin!

The league has had a day or so to look at the rookie draft, and it basically couldn’t be worse for the C-Dogs. It is a very strong and deep draft for offensive line – the one position group where I feel we are literally all set. It’s unusually weak at DL, WR, and RB, the positions I had been planning to target for young players. Not looking good for us there.

I put out a few trade feelers, and one of my offers fairly quickly turns into a good deal for us, we hope. Here’s the trade:


After looking at the rookie class, I’m convinced that the best-looking players available around pick 18 or 20 are gong to be offensive linemen, and I’m pretty well committed to my young group as it stands. So, we deal down a bit into round two, and pick up a first round pick next year – from a team that has been selecting early the last couple of seasons. If that pick next year actually pans out to be an early one again, then this might be a good deal for us in overall value. Given the likely options for us at 18 and 20, I think it’s going to be good for us anyway.


Anyway – we have swept through a number of renegotiations, and will be poised to play in the free agent markets just ahead. The first round of free agency is top be run Monday – so we’ll start with the serious action then.

CB For Sale

We have worked out a contract extension with CB Billy Joe Scanlon, who was a first round pick for us in 2006 and has developed nicely into a well-rounded player. After playing part-time last year, he agreed to an extension with base salaries of only $900K for three seasons – making him very affordable.

However, with the recent trade we’ve pulled off to land S Jon Upshaw, there’s a wrinkle. Upshaw is a decent veteran safety, who also happens to be a potential group leader for us. Actually, that’s no coincidence at all – landing him was a meaningful part of the trade we made with Las Vegas, as I am interested in shifting our position leadership. The problem is that if we rearrange things to clear space for Upshaw to become the group leader (basically either cut or trade CB Henry Birkland, our 13th year mentor veteran) then CB Scanlon will have a conflict with Upshaw, who would assume the leadership role with the team. This is less than ideal for me – I have worked pretty hard to keep us out of personality conflicts, and want to keep it that way. So, my next option is to make a deal to trade Scanlon.

I don’t need to do it, really – we can keep Upshaw on the team but keep Birkland as the position leader, and he will have at least a couple affinities. But Upshaw would have an affinity with four of my young DBs, which is why I’m motivated to make the move.

I posted Scanlon available for trade, and expected aggressive interest. Got none. I then posted a whiny little follow-up, bemoaning the fact that I got no interest… and was rewarded for my self-pity. It looks like there will be a market for him after all. Honestly, I think Scanlon is probably a better fit for a team that uses multiple coverages anyway – cheap and proven guys with solid ratings in all three coverages aren’t all that easy to come by. So, we’ll see how it goes there.

Free Agent Stage One

As usual, Chesapeake has littered the free agent market with offers. We are not near the top of the “cap space” list this year (recall, we are carrying a lot of dead cap space this season) but still have enough room to land one or two meaningful players. I have my eye on a couple guys that we’d really like to land… but overall, I’m just hoping to make an impact here or there.

Last season, we were pleasantly surprised when we managed to land four solid acquisitions at this stage – including starting RB Bill Briner and starting WR Danny Napiecek, arguably our two most productive skill position players last year. This year, most of the appetizing talent seems to be on the defensive side of the ball, but we have targets all over the place. I believe we have made offers to about 20 free agent players.


And the envelope please…

Chesapeake rolls out the red carpet for its newest free agent acquisitions:

Nobody.


Wonderful. We’re actually outbid on a few players who go elsewhere, but basically this is “no news” for us. Just an opportunity for more bidding wars, which I basically want no part of.

It was basically a non-start to the FA season across the league, as most of the big names out there remain unsigned. Disappointing, but at least it’s not a matter of having already missed out on everyone. We may do some tinkering, but we’ll wait things out one more week, it seems.

Another Deal… Done

Well, after stoking the fires a bit more, we have worked out a trade for CB Billy Joe Scanlon. The sense of urgency to get a deal done was heightened when S Joe Upshaw arrived – he actually wrested the leadership role away from CB Birkland without any help. So, that created a conflict with Scanlon, and Dodge City gave us a solid offer.

They are division rivals, which makes this bittersweet – but we’ll look at it this way: now we can root even harder for the Vigilantes to fall into the toilet this season, since we hold their top draft pick. So, that’s a nice twist.

Anyway – here’s the deal for Scanlon:


Now, this leaves us with a tough situation at the CB position. CB Herman Padgett is staying around, and is still our starter at the LCB slot. We now have no natural RCB to start, other than Victor Winters (who was signed last year as an affinity backup guy, and now no longer contributes an affinity). The logical thing to do is to use S Mark Carr as our RCB, with the main question being whether we actually move him to a CB slot, or just play him out of position there. I’m inclined to the former, especially if I’m convinced that we don’t need his position mentoring at safety (which looks to be true – McCartney and Schwantz look to get plenty of starting time anyway, so their development ought to go just fine even without a safety mentor).

We will continue to splash around a bit in free agency, and DB will move up our list of priorities, but there really aren’t a lot of great fits out there for us. I thought this was a position where we were basically “all set” but now, it looks like we could stand one or two new faces after all.

Draft Update

The pre-drafting process (people taking their picks before the draft officially starts) is actually up to us, and we are trying to swing a deal to move down in round one. My team’s needs just aren’t the strong suit of this draft, and I’m convinced that we can get the sort of guy we want a good deal lower in this draft than pick #7. A few irons are in the fire, so stay tuned.

Free Agency, Stage Two

We’re hoping to that some things get resolved this week – even if they are not in our favor. It’s just tough having no idea what holes are going to get filled, and where our remaining needs are. If we get some really good news, we might have a big shift on the team – if the news is really bad, we may have to do some scrambling. We’ll see.


This week’s one new C-Dog:

DE Brian Olivo – balanced 10th year defensive lineman, in a similar mold as Cornelius Kleinsasser. He’s an affinity guy and a DE mentor, so he adds a bit on the side as well. Likely role: rotation player at DE/DT. Salary this year: $1.2m

Not a bad pickup – we really needed one more usable defensive lineman. Olivo is not a stud, but he’s an affordable guy who could be started at either DE or DT is need be.

More Free Agency

We have very bad news in stage three, as several of the players we had been targeting were suddenly recipients of big new offers, and were grabbed off the market. I thought we had LB Albert Willis all but signed to a multi-year offer, but hated rivals Dodge City jumped in and gave him a monster offer, well more than ours (to an 11th year player). So, my hopes to add a good veteran influence at ILB have been thwarted there, but we still have options.

I was also disappointed to see CB Ferdy Nave snapped up by a surprise new bid from Hudson Valley. Nave was a solid player for us, has a few very good skills, and matched our needs in the secondary. My offer was solid, but he (a 10th year CB) picked up a $12 million offer for four years, and has signed with the Horsemen.


We did manage to sign LT Lenny Boyd, a familiar face as a long-time Chili Dog. He was upset last season over a lack of playing time, so we had to release him late in the year – but we did so explicitly for the purpose of trying to re-sign him this year, which we have done. I figure having a solid, affordable, starting-caliber left tackle on the team is a worthwhile investment, and he is glad to be back – affinity with John Houtz helps, too.


Bad round for us – and the heat gets turned up on the players who remain in the dwindling market for top-grade free agents.

Two More Trades

Chesapeake remains among the most active teams in the trade market, even if we are unable to swing much of a deal to go places with free agent offers. Two updates to offer here.

The first is a simple trade-down deal – I am still intending to make a first round pick this year, but at #7 I felt like there was some value in a trade-down, especially with two intriguing players available (at OT and QB, non-need slots for us). So, we pull the trigger on a minor deal to slide down four slots:


Ayr proceeds to grab the second-best QB in the rookie class with the #7 pick… and we remain hopeful that at pick #11 we’ll still land the same player we had targeted all along.


After losing out on re-signing CB Ferdy Nave (I’m still disappointed), we have opted to trade with Dodge City again, to pick up a young CB who has fallen out of favor there. So, for the second time, these two division rivals have worked out a deal for a solid young coverman Leland Tellez:


Tellez is weak in loose man coverage, where DGS is apparently shifting its secondary now – so he’s a mismatch for them. He was their 2nd round pick last season, so we get him for a very affordable contract for three years, plus he’s a natural right-side corner (our need) and should get along with S Upshaw, our position leader. Ding, ding, ding. Winner.

Tellez likely will compete for a starting job here, but at the very least he gives us a solid guy to use as a nickel corner or reserve anywhere. I had been getting worried about our secondary depth – Tellez should really help in that regard. And, we get some solid value for these lower-round picks, which I tend to just piss away anyhow, so that’s good, too.

Draft Update

We have once again made a draft-day trade, and have now dealt completely out of this year’s first round. This isn’t a bad result, considering my overall disappointment with the strengths of this draft and our team needs. We flipped out of picks #18 and #20 almost immediately, then we dealt down from #7 to #11, and now we deal from #11 into next year’s draft:



Here’s the player we get in the deal:



We have been looking for a skill position player who can help us – my ideal guy would have been a standout young flanker. Instead, we pick up a versatile veteran running back.

I’m not exactly sure what role Copley will play in our offense – I already get good use from the passing-down RB slot from FB Wunderlich, but he’s certainly a candidate there (though I don’t like his low rating in 3rd down rushing). He also, quite candidaly, now has to fit into my thining for the WR position – he has very solid receiving skills, and I’m hoping that perhaps he can be effective playing as our slot receiver. Considering the competition there are guys like Justin Berkey (profiled earlier) and journeyman Jake Madison, seeing Copley get a good deal of passes his way is not at all a stretch for this year.


We may not be done yet – I did manage to grow fond of a “good fit” player at pick #7, and my goal was to trade down and still get him a bit later. If we get a chance to make that still happen, we may still pursue something.

But for right now, we won’t be on the clock until 2(2), and we have three first round picks in next year’s draft, where we will hope for a stronger field overall. Wheeling and dealing.

Free Agent Update

We actually have landed a couple meaningful free agents, at long last. Both players are guys we have been “in the lead” on since the beginning of the process, but who apparently needed a bit more push to get them locked up.

LB Preston Gibbons is a 6th year middle backer, primarily a run stopper, and a former second round draft pick. He projects, for us, as a guy we can use as a reserve middle linebacker, or perhaps as a starter on the weak side, where his lesser skills in coverage and pass rushing would not be as critical. His $1m cap hit is very manageable for this year and next.

SS Earnest Dunn is a big signing for us, as he’s a wonderful complementary fit for our secondary and defense. Dunn, also, is a really big hitter (my scout marks him at 88/94 in run defense) and his best coverage is bump, which we primarily use. He’s an 8th year player, and we expect to see him get time at strong safety and perhaps to challenge Gibbons for time at the weak-side linebacker position.

Neither of these guys are going to be stars for us, I don’t expect – but both are meaningful additions, both with affinities, and should help us from being as short-handed on the defensive side of things as we managed to get last season. I’m very pleased to land both players.

The 2010 Chesapeake Draft

Well, after a long series of moves, we are done. We started out this year with three picks in the top 20, and three or four more late-round picks. After a lengthy series of trades, we end up with picks at 1(20), 2(2), two new first round picks next year, a substitution of young player at CB, a veteran RB, and no late rounders. Hard to say whether that has all been ideal for a “rebuilding” team, but I’m pleased overall.

We did deal Dodge City’s first rounder next year to get back into round one, to move back to pick 1(20) to grab this defensive tackle:



Lents is pretty much what I’m looking for in a defensive tackle – he should focus on stopping the run. He had a good combine, and I’m thinking that if he really does have a future as a guy rated 65 overall, then that rating in Run Defense has to eventually get up to 90 or better – so for him, if he fulfills the scouted potential, we’ll be happy.

If I wasn’t able to deal down from pick 1(7), I think I would have taken Lents there – DT is a major need for this team as it is, and since the real value in this draft was at OL (where I wasn’t all that enthused about replacing players I’m already happy with) I probably could have resisted the BPA notion. I’m very glad to move around and still get the guy I wanted a lot lower (and cheaper). Now, however, I don’t get to double my enthusiastic rooting against Dodge City – so that’s too bad.


My initial trade involved moving down from the late first round, and picking up an early second round pick. That move was also with a player in mind – and we did indeed get him at 2(2). The team really does need a young wide receiver, even if we start working RB Craps Copley into the mix there. Enter our second round pick, George Ellis:



Now, Ellis isn’t much to look at in his scouting profile, especially if all he ends up being is something toward the lower end of the blue ranges. So there is a very substantial chance here that we will have blown this pick. Paying early second-round money for a guy who would have to develop just to be our third or fourth best receiver isn’t smart drafting.

The hope here is that Ellis might be better than advertised. He was a combine standout, the strongest and most agile wideout in the draft, and the most developed in current ratings. So, if he turns out to really look like this after training camp – a guy with overall potential of 40-46 or so, then this is probably another terrible second round draft pick for us. If we get a boom from him, and after training camp he’s got a potential rated at around 50-55 or so… then it looks like this will have been worth it. Risky, but I would have really regretted it if we let him get by, and then say him break out on someone else’s roster.

If we actually do manage to add a serious building block at WR out of this draft, I suspect we will be the only ones to do so. If Ellis pans out (as I hope) then he’s probably the best receiver in this draft, despite starting out as the 6th rated guy on the draft board.


And with that, I believe we are done with the draft. There are still teams looking to move out, so it’s possible that we trade back in… but I have no immediate plans to do so, as I haven’t even studied the draft very closely beyond the players I was considering for these early stages.

Marking for my reference: this post is "view" #3,395 for this thread.

Free Agency Update

Well, in stages 5-8 of free agency, pretty much all the big name players remaining in the market have been locked up. We made a strong push for two guys, but in retrospect, we made it one stage to soon. This stretch, when we start to run multiple stages in one “sim” is the time to be in the lead, not the sim right beforehand. I think that CHE had the strongest offer on the table for stage 5 for two good playeers, but by playing our hand then, we opened the door for us to be outbid for stages 6-7-8, and in both cases we were.

Investing big guaranteed money into older players probably isn’t the wisest course of action for a supposedly rebuilding team anyway, so the loss isn’t cataclysmic… but it would have been nice to put our meaningful cap space to use this year. Even though this as the “tough” cap year for us after deals made last season, we still are going to come in several million under the cap, it seems.


We do sign one young player: WR Winfred Guthrie is a guy drafted by Dodge City a couple seasons ago in the second round, who doesn’t have great potential. For us, I see him as a deep WR reserve and contributor as a punt and kick returner – Guthrie’s addition very possible spells the end for RB Lewis Lee. Guthrie joins us with a strong affinity for group leader Joel Connell, which helps his value to our club as well. Not an impact signing by any stretch, but he’ll probably stick, and he’s cheap as dirt.

Free Agency Finishing Touches

In what I expect to be our last free agent move of significance this year, we have signed 14 year veteran OLB Howard Loftin. Two seasons ago, we pursued him as a free agent, but lost out in the bidding to Shreveport, where he played one season as a starter, and then last year as a reserve. Loftin is a strong run stopper (88 by my scout) and a good fit for our system (affinity with Steven Watkins), so he’s a welcome addition.

He was basically the “best guy left” for us to add, so we plunged in with a $4m offer for one year, out-doing the multi year deal he had from at least one team (Washington). With cap room to spare this year (my own fault) this seems like a harmless move, and while we lose out on the chance to make this a long term deal – for a 14th year veteran, I’m not sure a long term deal is a top priority, really.

As of now, this puts Loftin into the mix for our weak-side starting role. We’ll have to sort out hat exactly we want to do with LBs Watkins and Gibbons – but I feel like we now go five deep at LB with guys I’m comfortable putting on the field, plus S Earnest Dunn if needed. LB depth was a real problem last season – we’ve filled that gap pretty well, I believe.


We still have a few million in cap space, but I don’t expect to make any meaningful moves to occupy it. We’re basically done.

Yet Another Chemistry Experiment

We are indeed done with meaningful moves to benefit the roster – the impact free agents are gone, and we have sufficient space for a few rookies – and that’s basically it.

However, we have made one more move, to try to help things along in a more subtle way. We’ve got two minor issues on the team that we can address with one move – we have a young DT without a mentor, and we have a D7 position leader (LB Steven Watkins, with personality rating of 9) with such weak personality that nearly all our affinities there are mild. Evidence the current roster setup:


So, with these two minor issues in mind, we have made a deal to acquire veteran DT mentor Robert Dotson. Regrettably, Dotson was actually available seeking a free agent contract just this last stage – but my two searches for such players were timed, oddly enough, that I just missed him. Dotson is in a different sign than is Watkins, but he is in the same affinity trio – so while the specific affinities will change, we still pick up good signs for a number of our guys, and I expect them to be stronger than before.

The deal for DT Dotson sends away young WR Howie Hudson, a decent kick and punt returner whom we drafted in round four last year, but who was going to struggle for a roster slot this season. We also send Royal a sixth round pick, and our congratulations for the due diligence that armed him for this trade.

We then spin DT Dotson, along with a 7th round pick, to land DT James Reach – a guy who is basically the same player, though slightly better in his personality rating.

So.. with that multi-tiered mess over and done with, here’s what we see in our anticipated front seven:


(One addition, our rookie DT Bryan Lents should also be an affinity guy, though we don’t yet know the strength of the benefit, as we don’t have him on the roster yet)

This, gentle readers, is the downside of getting deeply immersed into a team this way. I’m done with free agency, I’m out of the draft, but we have to keep doing things. At this rate, we will likely never have even decent cohesion, as my bent toward tinkering will never allow me to just leave things alone. But for now, I think this is a good move for the club, and the trivial low round picks would have just gotten me in trouble anyway.

So, our first look at the two rookies…

The first time the rookies are visible on my roster is my own scout’s first real shot to give his close-up assessment. In my view, this isn’t a foolproof sign, but it’s a worthwhile early one – watching for movement in future potential especially. A lot of players who are going to seriously bust or boom will show a preliminary sign in that direction at this stage. Especially with Ellis, who probably needs a boom to be worth the pick we used for him, this is a fairly big moment. With only two players to watch, here’s what we see:

DT Lents
Draft: 32/65
Roster: 31/64

WR Ellis
Draft: 24/46
Roster: 25/50

Well, I can’t be too surprised by Lents – he was drafted mostly because of his skill set (run stopper with endurance) and that hasn’t changed. Edging down one point in future potential is a slight disappointment, but not a cause for alarm, really.

Ellis, on the other hand, looks like he may be a hit. Jump from 46 to 50 in potential is a good sign at this stage, and what my scout sees is a guy who may be slightly better than expected in getting downfield and may have better return skills than we had originally expected. Not a huge difference, but it does get him a little more firmly lodged into our plans for this year. Right now, I’m thinking that Ellis may spend the season lined up as our second option at flanker (I’ll formally move him to FL before training camp, I think) and we’ll use him as a kick and punt returner as well. We’ll have to see where he fits as a special teamer, but if he’s strong there (as he seems to be) we could line him up as a gunner as well, to work up his playing time for development purposes.

So, pretty good news on this front. We’ll watch both guys after the draft is concluded and we start the late free agency stages – that will be the next meaningful advancement of these players.

So…Where Are We?

So, we’re done with early free agency, and with most of the impact free agents signed and our two draft picks already signed on, most of our offseason is done. While I will undoubtedly make some more moves before it’s all said and done, this will help me continue to have things to write and post, even while the league trudges through the late FA stages and low draft rounds.

I’m going to invent, on the fly, a new measure for chemistry – my “affinity index.” For position groups, it will be calculated as follows:


So, if every single player in a group has a regular affinity, the Index would grade to exactly 3. Strong affinities will bring that up, but my guess is that anything over a 3 amounts to an “A-plus.” Every player with no affinity will bring the index down.

I haven’t introduced conflicts, since this team doesn’t have any. My guess is that to make this more global, I’d probably double weight conflicts, and have them subtracted from the affinity total. But that’s a non-factor here, as we will not be carrying any conflicts into the season.

Quarterback

Overview: We have pretty much what we want here – a developing superstar as our starter, one of the most highly-skilled backups in the league behind him, and a veteran mentor in the third slot to help the youngster develop. We’d have to have a big stroke of good luck to add a QB this offseason at all.

Gains and Losses: None, this group returns intact from last season.

Key Players: Obviously, Brent Sedor is the key to everything. ‘Nuff Said.

Future Plans: Well, my guess is that Harry Ross has settled in as a backup, so his contract demands will let him stay with us. We probably will keep this trio together through 2011, after which we will chuck the mentor and look for a young project guy. But for now – no immediate plans to change a thing.

Backfield

Overview: We have a variety of skills, but overall more talent here than we’ve ever had before.

Gains and Losses: Acquired RB Craps Copley by trade.

Key Players: Copley may turn out to be the key player in our whole offense, as we try to decide what sort of team this is going to be. If Sedor gains some more formation flexibility, we may see Copley lined up as a slot receiver as well as in the RB rotation. We still expect veteran Bill Briner to be our first-and-ten back, but we have such skills among our RB and FB slots, it wouldn’t surprise me to see FB Bill Wunderlich frequently lined up as a H-back/tight end, and RB Copley lined up as a wideout, along with Briner as the main back.

On The Bubble: For the fourth straight year, RB Lewis Lee is in trouble. He has always managed to stick, but after we traded for a solid RB and drafted a young WR with return skills, his primary contributions to this team are really occupied. I suspect he will not make the final cut, and I’m not including him in my AffI calculation below.

Affinity Index: 5 players, AffI=1.50

Future Plans: We would still like to bring aboard a versatile reserve running back, perhaps to replace Lewis Lee, who has defied the odds and remained with this team for five seasons, despite being “on the bubble” virtually all that time. Lee has some return skills, but has yet to be an impact player in any way, and we’d be better off with a promising younger player. Hoped for one in this draft, but maybe next year.

And why not? It's a great read. :D

Thanks. I'm actually more interested in who is still reading this stuff, rather than who has read it over its history.

Nearing 100 more views since I made that note -- which tells me that I shouldn't abandon the posting here. I've been getting a fair bit of discussion in the parallel thread I've been posting on the FOFL boards, but almost none here -- I'm just trying to see if people are still reading here, or whether I ought to drop this and just maintain it there. For the 10+ views I'm still getting here for every update I write, that suggests that keeping it current here is worthwhile.

Rookie Update

With the draft now completed, we have another meaningful update of the league file – and one more look at the progress of our two rookie players:

DT Lents
Draft: 32/65
Roster: 31/64
Precamp: 32/64

WR Ellis
Draft: 24/46
Roster: 25/50
Precamp: 26/50

So, both players get an identical bump of one point in their current ratings, and nothing in the future side. That’s okay at this stage… the important move(s) will be when we get through training camp, and get a look then. At this point, based on what I see so far, I’m hoping that Lents holds firm at 64 potential, and that Ellis jumps by a few more points – maybe to 53 or 54.

Veteran Breakout!

As the post-draft file is released, we did a quick comparison between our rosters going in and coming out – it’s often revealing. And this year, for (I think) the first time in our franchise history, we have a major veteran breakout.

LT Horace Kolodzik was a solid free agent signee last season – a decent left tackle and an affinity guy. He didn’t get any meaningful playing time for us, as Stanley Tilton had the starting job all sewn up.

This offseason, Kolodzik made a big jump forward, as he jumped from a guy my scout rated 38/48 (a decent reserve lineman) to one he now rates at 55/72. Here’s a snapshot of the post-boom Kolodzik:



So, there was have it – a solid, starting-caliber guy in his 6th year, already signed for two cheap seasons, and willing to extend to a very affordable third year. This gives us an even richer option with our OL – we now have to decide what to do here, since we have pretty big money invested in LT Stanley Tilton already. Better to have this dilemma than the more common “who on earth can we play here?” like I have at LT in IHOF.


There is bad news, though – a number of our aging veteran players are eroding quickly. Guys like TE Clyde Rego and S Mark Carr took pretty big hits, in accordance with the usual age-related decline process. No big surprises there. But I am a bit disappointed to see that CB Leland Tellez took a hit, too – he’ll still be a useful contributor, but at this point, I have to think I got the short end of that trade.

Some good news, a little bad news… on balance pretty good to hear. The OL situation is going to be more challenging than I had expected.

I posted a "trade block" thread about my left tackles... including a pic of Kolodzik as above. I expected a good deal of interest, instead I have received (so far) one offer.

My best bet is that I'll hold on to all three left tackles this year, probably use Kolodzik (maybe as our right tackle?) for the season, and go from there. This might be a way to work out a cheap renegotiation with one of our OL (Jerry Burns) next year, or else to lock up Kolodzik to be our RT srtarter for the future.

I'm thinking that, barring a major injury, the iron will be hotter for a trade as the season commences next year than it is now, as teams are still in love with their draft picks (lots of top OL there, too) and have basically set their strategies for the coming season. Trading now would probably not maximize value in any event.

So, we have good options with our newly robust OL depth.

Where Are We? - Offensive Line

Overview: Last year, we filled the remaining pieces in my line, finding a young RT in Jerry Burns who looks like a good fit. He now starts alongside three third year interior linemen, and our well-paid left tackle Stanley Tilton. I don’t think we have any stars here, but my hope is to get everyone signed to long term deals, and try a “stability” angle here, hoping to see our young talent develop nicely together.

Gains and Losses: None, we are basically intact, once we work out new RFA deals for C Winston Turnbull, G Marvin Brandon, and probably C Wendell Lambeau. LT Lenny Boyd was cut last year to be re-signed, so while he’s new for cohesion purposes, he’s a familiar face here. Late addition - We also should add in the breakout of LT Horace Kolodzik, which converted a decent reserve into a star-caliber player.

Key Players: LG Gus Schmit is developing well, and is coming off a solid season last year (35% KRBs, only 3 sacks allowed). If he can continue to play well, he makes the left side of the line a strength, and gives us two solid channels for the running game.

On The Bubble: G Bennie Olechowski hasn’t been getting much playing time, but is a decent enough young guard with an affinity – we’d like to keep him, but he’s probably #11 on our ordered list of linemen. I can’t see us keeping 11 guys, unless we have a serious injury in preseason.

Affinity Index: 11 players, AffI=2.20

Future Plans: Hopefully, none. If all works out well, we’ll sign our starters to long term deals, and watch them grow together. The oldest of our current starters I Tilton in his 6th year, so we have an opportunity to sit tight with this group for maybe five seasons, which would be nice. Kolodzik’s breakout give us options – perhaps we use him as our starting RT, or we deal him away to gain a draft pick to use elsewhere and continue with our same plan.

Where Are We? - Receivers

Overview: With a bright future at QB with Sedor, I’d like to get back to being the pass-first offense that won us a title years ago. To do so, we’re simply going to nee better talent at wide receiver than what we have now. Players we have on hand, like Danny Napiecek (last year’s relative breakout) and Jimmy Castellano (the guy he replaced, but a decent player) are role players – the sort of guys you have backing up one or two star-caliber talents on a winning team. This positions needs real work for the long haul.

Last year, we used a lot of 2-TE setups, and depending on Sedor’s formation gains, we may be forced to do so again this year. FB Wunderlich is a capable player in one role, and I love young Robert Cooper for the other, while veteran Clyde Rego is a mentor, a solid reserve, and a strong affinity guy for us.

Gains and Losses: Rookie WR George Ellis looks promising with the early movement in ratings, and we might have a future starter there, though probably not a standout. RB Craps Copley may be the biggest addition to our passing game, but I’m still uncertain where to use him.

Key Players: WR Ellis and Napiecek, both young, will probably be our most heavily used true wideouts.

On The Bubble: WR Jake Madison got playing time down the stretch last season, but as a 6th year player with no real upside, it’s hard to justify playing time for him on a “rebuilding” team. Hard to cut a guy with a strong affinity and return skills, but he might get caught in a numbers game as possibly our 5th or 6th best wide receiver.

Affinity Index: 9 players, AffI=2.625 (Counting WR Madison, who may not make the team, but does have a strong affinity)

Future Plans: It’s a top priority to improve at the pure WR slots in the coming years, for certain. I’m generally pleased with the TE group, especially if Cooper continues to improve.

I see your point. I've done a head count of who's still reading a couple of times for my Merchantmen dynasty. It was interesting to see that, despite sporiadic updates, there are still 10+ views per update. Of course, I don't have a copy running at he IHOF board, so the issue is not entirely the same.

Late Free Agency Begins

I am strong enough to trade away my late round draft picks, knowing that I tend to fall in love with marginal players there. I am not strong enough, however, to avoid wading into the post-draft free agency market, and signing a bunch of bums in hopes of finding worthwhile “sleepers.” I have had some success with this in the past – actually more so than I have had with my actual draft picks. This year, I’m not quite as enthused, but hope to find a few guys who can stick with the team even after training camp. We tossed out over a dozen contract offers, with varying degrees of enthusiasm.

The first yield:

RB Charles Colon – 57% developed, a few decent skills as a straight-ahead runner

TE Alex Sherman – has some decent receiving skills, not a blocker – might get a look at WR or even RB

DT Dwight Armagost – intriguing as he’s nearly all developed, but his skills are in the wrong place (PR strength), affinity

RB Chuck Chatterly – some receiving skills, 81% developed, strong affinity guy

FB Tommy Lindsay – good receiving skills, perhaps better at TE, where he’d have affinity

LB Jesse Bush – good skills match in coverage for our defensive scheme, and special teams skills


We’ll see what we have here once training camp is done. Right away, I think that DT Dwight Armagost has some potential – he’s got very lousy skills right now, but is highly developed and might exceed his current projections. The rest probably need some real good news in order to latch on.

What I need now is a new breed of team chemistry, so my veteran RB Craps Copley and these two rookie backs (Charles Colon and Chuck Chatterly) can get together and rejoice their shared initials. Maybe in the next patch, eh?

Where Are We? - Defensive Front

Overview: Last year, this unit was just crushed by injuries, but still managed to be our most effective bunch. We remain committed to a 4-3 front, and will try to maintain our reputation as a tough team to run against.

Gains and Losses: We added depth this offseason with veterans DE Brian Olivo, LB Preston Gibbons, and LB Howard Loftin – all rotation caliber players. We also added run-stopping DT Bryan Lents with our (eventual) top draft pick.

Key Players: When healthy, DE Alvin Hall is among the best DE in the league. MLB Doug McKenzie was a huge impact signing last season, and we are hoping to lock up a new contract to keep him here for a long time. Long term, if we ever get anything more from still-injured DT Eugene Bradham or LB Travis Kuykendall, that would be a great boost.

On The Bubble: DT Martin Santos is a veteran pass rusher, who has struggled to receive playing time in recent years. LB Andre Shepard is a reserve caliber backer who no longer has a group affinity, and has lost some appeal in a newly deepened deeper LB corps.

Affinity Index: 17 players, AffI=1.47

Future Plans: This remains an area for future investment, even if DT Lents pans out into a solid run-stopping starter at DT for us. We are still using rotation-caliber players at DE (Kleinsasser and Olivo, this year) and are getting old at these positions overall. This could be the first place we look with our top picks next year, rivaling the skill positions.

I'm following along because I have Week 16 circled on my FOFL calendar.

Where Are We? - Secondary

Overview: We’re pretty invested now in a rebuilding, after getting two solid DBs with second-tier draft picks (CB Herman Padgett at 3.1 two seasons ago, and S Doug Schwantz at 2.32 last year), and filling in with after-draft discardees (CB Dixon Webb, S Jeff McCartney, S Brett Vesser). We still have venerable Mark Carr around as a utility guy and kick returner, as well. Now, from where I stand, we have a core DB group that I’m pretty comfortable relying on for the long haul.

Gains and Losses: CB Ferdy Nave took a better offer in free agency, and will be missed. We dealt CB Billy Joe Scanlon, and dealt for CB Leland Tellez – probably lose some talent in that exchange, but Scanlon wasn’t a perfect skills fit for us, and Tellez should be useful. We added big-hitting safety Earnest Dunn to the mix as well – he may be a useful addition too, as he’s tough enough to play at WLB if needed, but can cover reasonably well also.

Key Players: CB Herman Padgett – I have been enthused about him since the draft pick, but we need to see performance on the field to justify my enthusiasm. So far, he has only 11 passes defensed and a PDPct of 18.4 – not acceptable figures. My scout says he’s a standout in bump coverage (80/84) and we expect to see that translate into on-field results. The whole DB unit needs to create more turnovers as well, but having Padgett turn into a reliable “cover their #1 target” corner is a must.

On The Bubble: CB Victor Winters was a nice pickup as a free agent last season, a decent reserve CB and return man with an affinity. We have since overhauled the chemistry in this group, rendering him a drag on affinity rather than an asset. He slots right now as our 4th or 5th best cover man (5th if we count Carr ahead of him, which I do) and with the addition of a rookie with return skills, his contributions look marginal. He’s been on the trade block with no bites.

Affinity Index: 10 players, AffI=2.11 (not including Winters)

Future Plans: Hopefully, none. Ideally, we’ll see a good year of improvement from Padgett and Schwantz, and we’ll be adequately covered at the second CB slot by either Webb or Carr – and this position won’t need any real additions for years. We’d always welcome a standout CB, but I don’t think we’ll be looking in the top of the draft at DB during this rebuilding.

Ought to be interesting -- this year we get to close things out at home (for a change) with two games. VPI's Hudson Valley visits us in Week 16, and then we host the defending division champs from Portland.

If the season goes according to plan, we shouldn't need any extra motivation at that point in the season, as hopefully we will be in the mix for the playoffs.

Late Free Agency Continues

Our run for ragtag rookies extends into the second of three stages. The yield this round:

WR Raymond Harper – decent kick returner, might have some depth value, 64% developed

DE Freddie Hadnot – has one skill, and it’s the right one (pass rushing), has an affinity

LB Tom Cooper – a fairly exciting find, a good skills match for us (good against the run and in bump coverage), plus he’s an affinity guy

RB Cedric Fulcher – 82% developed, weak skill set, needs a big training camp

DE Dexter Gerhardt – Another DE with all the wrong skills, but has an affinity and might be on the rise

DT Marlon Norton – We’ll slide him to DE and see if he can stick


This latest parade of silly signings pushes our roster total up to 71 players – so most of these youngsters simply can’t make the team. In the coming days, I’ll try to profile some of the “bubble” decisions as we prepare The Turk to make his appointed rounds.

One bit of good news – rookie TE Alex Sherman was a conflict at the WR/TE group, so we gave him a look as a running back – and he actually looks like he might be worth keeping there. My scout now rates him at 17/40, with pretty solid potential in all the receiving areas and kick returning. He also has a strong affinity in the position group – which will certainly help him fit into our planning as well. So, maybe there’s one diamond in this rough after all.

Late Free Agency Wrap-Up

Not many targets left, but we are (enjoyably) bidding against Chris/Subby for yet another player, so that’s always fun.

With the stages of late free agency, we manage to sign:

QB Andre Stevens – a longshot to make the team, but seemed like the best URFA QB to me

P Conrad Alfonso – has a serious chance to unseat veteran Donovan Embry with a good training camp

LB Riddick Canady – we won the bidding against Washington for him, with a one year, $800K offer – pretty good skills match for us, and might work out even better as a safety

RB James Richmond – has decent skills as a ball carrier, but not well suited to 3rd down duty nor returns


Nothing all that exciting to see here, really. We have something like 74 players signed for training camp, and we’ll plow on from here. We will no doubt have a lot of blood shed after camp (as most of these rookies show their true colors)

Training Camp – QB Progress

We pumped considerable time into our playbook time to help along young QB Brent Sedor – hoping this Ivy leaguer would be able to pick up some more of the spread formations that we have traditionally used here in Chesapeake. The yield…

Sedor’s Formations:

Pre-Camp:

I Normal
I WR Slot
Pro Normal
Pro TE Pairs
Strong Normal
Single Normal
Single Trips WR
Goal Line 3TE

Post-Camp:

I Normal
I TE Pairs
I WR Slot
Pro Normal
Pro TE Pairs
Weak TE Pairs
Strong Normal
Single Normal
Single Trips WR
Goal Line 3TE


So, now we have a broader array of muti-TE formations available to use. Great. Looks like our hopes to really open the offense will be stilted another season, as we can barely even find a way to get three guys out there. Alas.

Heading Into Preseason

We have cut down to 59 players (plus our two defensive veterans on IR) for preseason, and we will be looking at some young players amidst battles for roster slots.

Some things we’ll be looking for in the preseason:

Running Back – We expect to keep one of the three rookies who remain with us. I have James Richmond set up atop the depth chart, and Chuck Chatterly as the #2 option. We expect to rotate in Alex Sherman as well. Probably one spot to be held from among the three of them – and I’m very torn right now.

Defensive Line – We have two rookie who have made it this far for us, DE Dexter Gerhardt and DT Dwight Armagost. At the moment, I expect to see both guys make the team, and we will give both players a look during the preseason. I’m not sure either will develop into all that much, but we’ll try to mentor them and see what we get over the next year or two. Finding a usable DL in the after-draft fluff is nice – and Gabe Shah is a testament to that sort of patience.

Safety – Riddick Canady, a converted linebacker, is probably good enough to make a team, but he currently slots as our 7th safety and 11th DB. Tough to justify keeping him – but we’ll watch in preseason and see if there’s evidence to suggest that we might be better off releasing a veteran to keep him on.

Quarterback – Andre Stevens will get some looks in preseason, but I have trouble imagining he’ll impress enough to hold a roster spot, especially since he doesn’t add affinity or any other intangibles. I wouldn’t mind carrying him as a #3, but since we are locked up among our top three spots, he’d have to be #4… a tougher justification overall.


Those are some of the young players battling for positions. My best guess is that we’ll have three players from above make the team, plus a rookie punter Conrad Alfonso who has already locked up his spot.

Pretend Games are Underway!

We get our preseason debut this week, as we travel to take on Texas. We don’t read too much into such things, but we’ll be watching a few young players and will hope for a few minor injuries that might have the effect of expanding our effective roster.


So, we get a win in our preseason opener, not really a big deal. Neither rookie RB really lit things up for us, as the best showing we got from anyone was probably WR Ellis, who caught three passes, but did fumble once.

Our one injury here is to C John Houtz – after next week’s game, we might have to decide whether to IR him, in order to keep one other player on the team. Houtz is a reserve player for us anyway, but we’d lose his mentorship of our two other centers, which I’d miss a bit. Also, I don’t want him to leave angry over playing time, as he is the lynchpin to our OL affinity system. Might be a tough call.

More Preseason “Action”


Well, I’m not sure what to think – when our right tackle gets the game ball for a preseason game. I guess it’s nice, but it does suggest a lack of notable efforts elsewhere.

These rookie running backs, in particular, just didn’t look impressive. We’re not likely to be a run-first team anyway, but it’s a bit disappointing to see not one of these youngsters break through with any sort of performance. Ah, so it goes.

A few injuries – including one to OG Bobby Saladino, which will also have me scratching my head when we get to our final cut-downs. However, these crappy rookie RBs are making me think that this might be easier than I think – I’m not sure any of them are worth keeping around.

Pretend Games continue

We face Toronto in our third exhibition game…


So, we get a loss, as they rally for the win against our defense. I’m not worried, it’s just the reserves, but we’d still like to see a bit more from our young skill position players overall. The running game was admittedly better this week, and we again got a few catches from WR Ellis – but nobody is screaming “you have to keep me around” from the young guys on this team.

We have three injured linebackers now – nobody serious, but I’m starting to be glad we have added some depth there.

G Bobby Saladino, with turf toe, is the best candidate we have for the IR – he’s a decent veteran reserve, but he won’t play much this season if everything goes according to plan, so shelving him shouldn’t hurt us too much. And it would allow us to keep some other player as man #53 in his stead.

On the Bubble: The RB Battle

Since we’re in the dreaded preseason lull, I thought it might be worthwhile discussing (pretty openly) my conundrum at RB. This is a pass-first team historically, but having our best talent ever among our ball carriers and starting a rookie QB had us running a bit more last season. We ended up with pretty reasonable rushing stats overall:


Admittedly, we did get a subtle boost in the rushing totals from having a fleet-footed young QB, but our top two ball carriers themselves still averaged over 4 yards a carry – probably a first for this team in its history. We’re not a “smash mouth” team by any stretch, but we will be looking to keep the running game credible.

Heading into this season, we return our main-duty RB Bill Briner, a 13th year veteran with solid skills for straight-ahead running. We also return veteran FB Bill Wunderlich, a nicely well-rounded back with good skills most everywhere who was solid when (usually) slotted as the #1 TE and #2 RB. Additionally, we have obtained via trade veteran RB Craps Copley – detailed earlier in this discussion – who will serve us as a versatile third-down option and perhaps fit into our WR depth chart as well. Finally, FB Charles Emerson (a former first rounder, now just a decent contributor) remains aboard as a solid player at the true FB position.

That’s four players, enough to field a legal roster. We have three rookies, all trying to make the team. Each has interesting traits, and each still has some shot to make the team. With our four central players all pretty advanced in age, it would stand to reason that we’d make some effort to promote some youth here – it wouldn’t make sense to let Brent Sedor reach his full potential in a few years only to see the rest of his backfield hit the old folks home together.

So – with that overdone setup, let’s have a look at the three stooges themselves, shall we?



So, there they are, in all their full-color splendor. And yes, I have most definitely decided to stick with these ugly colors, if you must ask.

Now honestly, do I see any of these guys becoming our feature back one day? Almost certainly not. So the question is a little more nuanced – it’s a bit more about what can they do for me right now, and what, if anything, might they be able to do do better down the road.


James Richmond – he seems to be the place to start. Richmond has pretty decent ratings in elusiveness, hole recognition, and the other skills that are central to being a straight-ahead running back. He lacks receiving skills, but if I had to run the ball on first and ten with one of these rookies right now, it would definitely be Richmond.

In the preseason, we have slotted him as our starting RB, and he has been marginal – but has done so behind a second-tier OL. In the last game, he posted a respectable 12-46 and a TD, which is the best total output from any of the backs in the three games.

Short term hopes – he could actually get some carries this year if he makes the team, though he’d probably be our fourth choice to do so. Long term hopes – I doubt he gets much better than advertised, so probably not much, unless we really strike out at the RB position and he gets work by default.


Chuck Chatterley – Has almost no measurable skills in the areas that we’d actually care about, so why is he here? Well, mostly because he has every possible “intangible” going for him. He’s a strong affinity guy with my group leader Briner, he’s got sky-high volatility which could portend a breakout one day, and he’s even got really top-tier ratings in most of his personal attributes. If this guy stays in the league, he almost certainly becomes a RB mentor, a good chemistry addition, and so forth. But, by outward appearances, he basically can’t play worth a damn. His preseason work has not dispelled this notion – 12 carries for 45 yards, generally against the scrub lineups, doesn’t exactly get me out of my seat.

Short term hopes – he makes the team, contributes good chemistry, and we hope for some signs that he might develop. Long term hopes – if any of these ancillary ratings mean anything, then this guy might have a step forward some day and be useful.


Alex Sherman – A tight end in the draft, he was light enough at 235 to get a look at the FB/RB position. His skills were a better fit for RB, so here he is. He’s basically the anti-Richmond – where Richmond has skills best suited to run up the middle and little else, Sherman looks like a jack-of-all trades who might be useful doing almost anything but running up the middle. Pretty decent receiving skills, some kick return ability, and some special teams ability make him a potential fringe contributor in several ways. In the preseason so far, we have given him some carries – 4 for 9 yards, nothing to behold.

Short term hopes – oddly, he might be the guy who could actually get onto the field the most right now, with his return skills and receiving ability, plus he has strong affinity like Chatterley. Long term hopes are muffled after a really bad camp, but if he remained effective in the receiving game, he could satisfy a role a lot like the departed Lewis Lee – a little here, a little there, and stick around for a few cheap seasons.


Nobody here is going to turn the league on its ear, by any stretch. But we might have roster room for a 5th or even a 6th player at the RB/FB group… and these guys all bring various things to the table for us. We have on more week to consider our options – perhaps we’ll shuffle the depth chart a bit and see what Sherman can do as the #1 RB.

Last Pretend Game

We will give a pretty close look to RB Alex Sherman in this final preseason game, as he will be slotted for a lot of playing time and carries. I want to keep him on the team, but I’m not sure he’ll make it without a good effort here. I’m trying to make the preseason meaningful, really I am.


Well, Alex Sherman did look pretty decent out there, but so did all three of our rookie running backs. This decision will not be simple.

So, our next step is to make our final cut-downs, and this will not be particularly easy to do. We’ll have some decent veterans who obviously aren’t long term investments – but guys who could help us this season. Is this a team that should be in “go for it” mode right now, or should we be sparing some time for younger players who could help us down the road?

More to come after we sift through what we’ve got and try to make up our minds.

Final cut list

To get to our in-season roster limit, we need to make six cuts. Here’s the tentative list:

QB Andre Stevens
FB Tommy Lindsay
RB James Richmond
SS Riddick Canady
WR Raymond Harper
LG Bobby Saladino (to IR)


That will get us to 56 total players, and to our roster limit.

With this list in mind, I dangle RB James Richmond for a minor trade, and we work out a deal for a 7th rounder for him. We’ll keep and eye out to see how he does struggling for playing time in State College.