Dola, and probably the biggest crowd I played in front of :D

I loved Amsterdam too. We did the stupid American thing and exceeded our abilities at a "coffee shop", took in the free boozy happy hour at the hotel suite floor lounge we paid for with points, had the paranoid feeling we didn't really belong, the goods kicked in, we fled and took a nap in the room and were awoken by turndown service, and in that moment, I thought days had passed and we missed our flight. I scrambled for my phone to figure out what day it was. it had been about 45 minutes.

I love the use of the phrase "exceeded our abilities"

SI

Ok, can we stop right there? This thread is depressing enough without stories about the dark side of Amsterdam. The only thing I liked to do there was going to Amsterdam Admirals games. It wasn't NFL caliber football, fans of the NY Jets might disagree, but at least it was football. :rolleyes:

On the bright side, we actually shifted away from the depressing topic. So yes, that was good for a smile.

I have never seen the dark side of Amsterdam. I have to check that side out next time we go.;)

I don't feel/see the effects of a second wave but that is comparing it to first wave effects, symptoms etc.

My guess is fatigue, little talk of lockdown, many businesses have learn how to do remote, no shortages at Krogers, restaurants being open for take out, less unknowns (and dread) than before etc. This second wave will become obvious by increased # of infections reported in MSM but albeit a lower death rate.

So second wave for # infected but my guess is, other than for that metric and assuming some stimulus in next 2-3 months, not as bad as Apr-Jun.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/19/healt...day/index.html

If the dark side of Amsterdam is playing football in the park, I think you’ll be disappointed!

People and businesses seem to be tiring of mask mandates, at least at one of my local Walmarts. Still required to wear one in, but no one at the door watching, and quite a few people with a mask or taking them off when they get inside.

Got a test today so I could go back to work next week. According to the nurse, we're back up to 5-6% positivity after being below 1% for a while.

Honestly, seeing today's stories that the next 2-3 months will be the worst part of the pandemic... is not very good for my mental state.

I was back in Blue Ridge today and very few of the places are enforcing the mask mandate (they say masks required, but most people were not entering with masks). Somebody told me that he read masks actually make you sicker because you don't get exposed to germs, like kids at daycare. I told him, next time he goes in for surgery, let the surgeon know that he doesn't need to gown and mask up so his immune system could get a boost. He was very confused.

Is agitation a symptom of covid? I feel like going out and step-mom someone's throat for no real justifiable reason.

Also another person at my work may have caught the covids and a large part of their work has fallen to me.

Seems as if we were in the 40K daily new for the longest time. Easily past it now. Hope the damn vaccine(s) get here soon to complement the (seemingly) better treatments/therapeutics.

I really want to plan on some sort of travel next summer.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/24/healt...day/index.html

One glimmer of hope is that while cases have been increasing in the U.S. for 6 weeks, and in some cases, longer in Europe, the death rates haven't tracked the same. In Italy for example, their daily new cases are now almost triple what they were when they got hammered in March, but the daily deaths are 10% what they were. Other countries are showing similar patterns.

That could be some combination of more testing, better treatments, hospitals learning how to deal with this, or, COVID is evolving to be more contagious and less deadly, like many viruses do.

It's also a simple case of the considerable delay between case reporting and death reporting. Look at cases 3 weeks ago and those are roughly those you see as deaths today on average. This was the exact pattern in the US over the summer.

There is also always a difference between cases slightly increasing over time and what is happening now. Usually an explosion follows a gradual rise or a plateau. The US was at or under 45k as a 7 day average from Aug 20 to Oct 6th. So there's no reason for deaths to have risen much yet from the current surge (although i would not call a 15% increase over the last week nothing).

Of course testing was nonexistant in March, that's why you had 30-50 % positive rate and 'only' 10 now. 18k cases aren't as bad as 7 in spring, absolutely, no question. For all the reason you list* + this time it starting in younger people, more barriers build up between generations even outside care settings (of course people are more carefull with older relatives for example).

But at the same time, there's a breaking point where the odds of older people getting it surpass the increased caution and where the sheer number of infections counteract any gains on a case by case basis. Remember it gained a foothold in mid february (earlier individual cases notwithstanding) and from mid/late march it was in sharp decline from measures taken and the weather turning (people outside vs inside is the single biggest factor). That's essentially 1 month of buildup. Now we are staring at a massive buildup in October with 3-4 months of winter ahead and everybody trying to rightfully prevent/avoid doing lockdowns.

And when i see France at 40k cases, very few of them get results in a timely manner, i am unfortunately very sure their 200-300 deaths will turn to much worse much worse before long. Because those deaths are from the first jump from 3 to 10k-12k cases in September. Since early October it has now risen to 30k average and climbing.

The Czech Republic is currently at the population adjusted equivalent of 600 deaths in Italy or France and it has doubled within 1 week. Cas es went from 500 to 2000 in September, already from 2k to 11k in October. This sort of exponential rise is where things get messy and you are really only measuring data, not using it (f.e. to quarantine contacts).

I am not trying to be bleak, but i see very little reason not to be extremely on edge and hope the people in charge are too.

*It has nothing to do with the Virus, that's not substantiated by anything really other than "well, could't that happen ?". The whole theory is based on there being a somewhat notable mutation becoming the dominant group of strains, replacing the initial ones. But this actually happened in February/early March, not anytime recently. This D614G mutation was almost exclusively present in samples/cases before we got to March in both Italy and New York for example.
It might well have made it a bit less deadly and spread easier, but it has already been in place when the tragedy happened in the spring.

So I went to Krogers in my half doctor's plague mask and some woman asked to take my picture.

I almost feel like a celebrity.

Went to Kroger's today, everyone was wearing masks.

Also went to Academy Sports, and maybe 50% were wearing masks. Not going to support Academy Sports anymore.

It has been really interesting to see which stores/businesses are operating with a "the Governor says you should wear a mask, but, whatever, we're not your Dad" vibe and the ones operating with a "we don't want to get sick, so you are not allowed in here without a mask. Curbside delivery is VERY available" vibe.

dola:

I'm a liberal who loves good BBQ, so I don't do the whole "boycott places that don't agree with my politics" thing.

But I have been avoiding places that are lax on mask compliance b/c that's not a political thing. That's a don't make me sick thing.

Once this is all behind us, I'll be happy to go back and start getting good BBQ again.

Pence's chief of staff and at least two other staff members are positive.

Now a total of five in Pence's staff. Pence himself has decided to continue on as he's an essential employee.

France reporting 523 deaths today (a casual 30% of the average 'normal' deaths on a day in France) after 260 last tuesday. And that's still from comparatively modest transmission Levels 2-3 weeks ago. Those tripled since then ...

Even here in Germany it would take just 4 more weeks of current trend to overwhelm hospital and ICU capacity (not even considering acompanying personnel shortages and regional bottlenecks) and we only have the bloody most of them per capita in the world and still a considerably lower trajectory in cases and lower positivity rate with better testing/isolation. So yeah, this will get much worse before it gets better ... Again, people are still trying by and large but this thing is just a nightmare to prevent unless people interact much less with others unfortunately. Hope it was mainly a case of being blindsided of it starting so early combined with wishfull thinking and societies turn that corner now and officials keep hammering home the point ... Hate to see any closures, but unless people reduce private and office contacts massively for at least a couple weeks i'm at a loss to the alternatives to at least some, especially of the social variety (bars for one, social clubs/societies/sports for another. Sucks massively but least costly economically)

Hospitals around the St Louis area are at over 90% capacity. Making things difficult for them and anyone who may need to go to the hospital.

Well I tested negative. I was surprised at how quick it was. I did the drive thru testing at walgreens and I've spent longer times in Taco Bell drive thrus. It only took two hours to get the results back as well.

Waiting for a colleague's testing. If it's positive, then I was probably exposed.

Barf.

Ugh. Hope they come back negative.

Oh man JP, hope it comes back negative.

Good luck JP.

My sister was exposed, again this week at work. She works with some dumbasses. Girl came into work 3 days in a row with a fever. Didn't tell anyone. Someone noticed she looked bad the 3rd day, she told them thinking they wouldn't snitch. They snitched. Girl had to get tested. Positive.

I hope she was fired also

Looks like I will be getting tested soon; no known exposure, but I've got a fever and the doc wants to rule it out. No other symptoms at all, so I'm hopeful this is just a "check the box" sort of test.

Weird being sick when you have an infant. Hard to believe I haven't already exposed her, to be honest.

Prayers, man.

Hoping everything is okay Vince!

Good luck Vince

Feel fine and no news tonight. I'm more concerned about my colleague that is 65+ with some health problems.

Good luck Vince.

Best wishes to everyone. Hoping for the best.

Good luck, Vince!

My daughter's hitting coach is confirmed positive this morning. She hit with him on Monday, he started showing symptoms on Tuesday.

So, off we go to get tested today! :D

So, in good news, I'm negative. In bad news, the fever is due to an abscess, and I'm getting prepped for inpatient surgery now. Sounds like prognosis is great and it's a simple procedure, but the recovery sounds awful.

Good luck.

Good luck, Vince.

Good luck homie.

Tons of people out trick or treating today in large groups. Seeing very few facemasks. We decided not to participate this year which really sucks because I look forward to Halloween every year. Doing so this year just seems insane but people seem desperate for normalcy regardless of the consequences.

I suspect there will be a lot of maskless Trick or Treaters. We decided to put a a bowl out with candy and a Happy Halloween sign just past our front steps. We won't be answering the front door. Sad but makes it a little safer for Trick or Treating

We decided to do the same.

I did tell my wife not to put it all out at one time (in case there are some assholes) so we'll be checking and refilling as needed.

UK entering a second lockdown for a month but tbh, it doesn't sound like a real lock down.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/31/europ...ntl/index.html

Thanks for the well-wishes folks. Looks like surgery was a success, now for the much less exciting recovery.

We’re really doing nothing much different from last year, just sitting a bit farther from the table.

My wife rigged a PVC pipe to our steps railing so we could put the candy in the pipe and let it slide to the kids.

We only got 5 kids, but that was 5 more than last year!

We built a candy catapult for the drive way. We're having my son and a few of his D&D crew man the catapult for trick or treaters that venture out.

That is cool. Take a pic and share it!

About 10 kids so far in 30 min.

Candy bucket is still doing good on the metal folding chair in front of the door. Open the shade some so the dog can be an early warning system for us.

Very cool Glen. We didn't buy much candy this year because the past couple we just didn't get much, The neighborhood has become a lot kid-friendly this year with new houses going up like crazy, but on the opposite side from us. Then we thought the virus might hold them back. 24 Reeses gone by 7:30 ish though I'm pretty sure some kids took more than the one we asked them to take-shocking I know. :)

Pretty funny to hear a couple of the kids reading the sign and tell their parents they could only take one...and then the parents making sure they only took one :)

All done for the night. 3/5 refills gone so it'll be a challenge to resist eating the leftover candy!

Hope the kids had fun. We really didn't as we didn't get to greet the kids or see the costumes.

Our neighborhood is one of the hot spots in town. This year we did not participate. Watching our healthy 19 year old daughter suffer with this virus changed how we do things.

There were a lot more houses dark this year. And a lot less people in our subdivision.

Went to Costco to stock up today.

Pretty busy. Everyone wearing masks except for husband-wife with mask pulled under the nose and an older lady in one of those power carts, rolling around with mask hanging off only on one ear. I felt like coughing on her.

I hope Costco tell their associates to challenge these entitled customers.

Wearing your mask under the nose is the cool thing to do here. I've also noticed if one person in a family is doing it then they all do it.

I came really close to snapping at an old lady today who was going the wrong way down the aisle at the grocery store.

I don't see those signs anymore at the stores I go to.

But will fess up that I've done that before. The one time, it was stickies on the floor and I didn't notice.

That is one thing that is pretty much not followed at all here. Even I feel like it's rather silly. I sort of wondered if it was like that everywhere, but I guess not. We still have many, many people who love, LOVE, to flaunt not wearing masks in the grocery.

I don't think they even bother trying to do the arrows on the floor in Texas.

SI

My wal mart pulled them off the floor. people are brain dead.

The good thing about Mask under nose ? Hurts them more than others if it comes down to it (and protecting others is still the main rational for masks) . Cause the virus likely loves to enter through the nose but unless they have a decidedly unusual way of breathing or are sneezing they hardly will expel much through it.

1st person in Missouri under the the age of 18 to die. And 8th grade student at a neighboring school district. He was obese, still, this may scare some people into wearing masks. Not man do in my county.

I don't think the arrows on the floor accomplish anything. For them to matter you'd need to severely limit the number of people in stores much further than we have, which you really can't do without making it unreasonably difficult for people to get the food they need.

The problem is people will just point out the fact he was obese, never mind the fact he would still be alive today had he not gotten covid.

The reality is people will always find a way to justify their actions.

The virus has me strongly considering going on a diet. My BMI is over 33.

Heck, I need to get in better shape regardless of the virus.

My friend’s brother had a wedding a few weekends back. Last count had 90 people at the wedding become infected. My boss’ kid’s daycare provider went on a group outing straight into the middle of one of the hottest spots in Wisconsin and proceeded to infect most of the kids under her care, which in turn got the parents infected and other people from there.

My boss did not get it, but his wife and daughter did. The wife was pretty sick, never hospitalized, but one of the more nasty sicknesses she’s ever had.

I’ve seemingly been surrounded by this virus for a few weeks now but haven’t gotten it yet. No, I was not at the wedding but had come into contact with people that turned out to be infected.

Do you have type O blood type?

Not sure.

I wouldn’t say I definitely should have contracted it. But I was in the same room and came within six feet and had a conversation with somebody that became symptomatic less than a week later. Perhaps I just didn’t get a big enough viral load. Whatever the reason, I’m not going to pretend I won’t get it.

Because 2020:


Grr. Struggling to post an image from my phone. The white board in my hospital room lists my nurse for today as "Daivd."

Figured it would be appreciated around these parts.

Seeing what the NE went through in March/April this sort of thing frustrates me so much. Is it so hard to learn from others mistakes?

You made my day, Vince. Even without the pic, you can't make that stuff up.
I hope you recover well, quick and smoothly!

The old lady has been exposed twice now but hasn't picked it up. She's crediting her O - blood type so just a guess.

I am O+, I wonder if that will keep me from getting infected. No way do I want this.

Glad someone else enjoyed it - it definitely made me smile.

Hope you get a chance to visit the beer tent soon!

btw My colleague is negative, so I can leave quarantine tomorrow and go to work.

I was cast as Sherlock Holmes in the play Baskerville a little more comical version of Sherlock holmes tale. The director assured me that blocking and such would be safe. We got into blocking and...everyone is wearing masks...but the director isn't spacing everyone despite our stage being huge. yself I would always take a step or two away from people and still make it seem natural. But others did not in fact the Watson stupidly keeps speaking DIRECTLY at people. All this made me uneasy so I asked him and the stage manager again if we could make things safer and wondered how we were doing the play. He said no masks. But can we space things out better? Yeah yeah he said. Then we went right back the next week doing the same thing...some scenes could be spaced...others not. And he expects me to keep doing this with Mr Indiana Watson spewing his particles at me from point blank range. Oh yes and there WILL be an audience. a huge audience that will be spaced. Do I believe that the audience will keep their masks on? Not a fucking chance in this very rural suburb. So even tho the facility (a community arts center) seemed on the ball and masked...it seems that they let things go. Like a dance studio there where all the kids were not wearing masks while dancing. They said "oh but their temps are taken!" SO FUCKING WHAT!?!?!?

I could not take the chance....Last weekend things went to Purple in Ohio but they didn't call it purple because our governor lost his balls to the red senate and of course trump will cry if he tries to save people.

So dewine will NOT cancel anything until after the election for certain.

So I had to quit. It was sad to give up a sweet lead role...but I feel I'd certainly get covid if I continued. They just aren't being safe. They understood, wished me well, ..yet seem to be full steams ahead in their way of doing a full blown production.

and despite this being more abstract farce they seem to be doing big sets for every scene...which isn't really what is needed here. sigh I hate community theatre sometimes...

how will THAT help?
have they discovered a blood type link that isn't used in a doctor who plot?

Yay!

There's no safe way to do plays indoors right now. I can't do my Fall production, so I've been working with playwrights and actors on new play development over Zoom. It stinks, but I'm not even comfortable with forcing people into rehearsals, nevermind performances with audiences.

CNN is reporting that Canada is seeing a spike 3 weeks after their Thanksgiving. We aren't going anywhere but the 2 kids will be back from college.

Honestly, it's tough to ask not do family get togethers and we are probably going to be more exposed with 2 college kids coming home.

I wonder if the message should be - everyone go get tested just before any get togethers?

Problem with that would be there's no way to test that volume of people all at once before a major holiday.

Below story got me thinking.

I get western countries want to wait for Phase 3 trials to be completed and vaccines to be proven safe before distribution.

But should third world (and developing) countries take the risk and offer voluntary Phase 2 in-progress vaccines knowing there will be risks to a "smaller percentage" of the population vs the crushing economic disaster.

Compared to western counterparts, many third world citizens are enduring more of a severe crisis and don't have the support system we have. My guess is they won't rebound as quickly either.

I think it's an interesting question when the context is not from the western pov but more from third world or developing.

From Aljazeera (link was causing problems)

I've done like 3 zoom productions so far and they've been great plus tons of auditions.

A different local group is doing a "radio play" series. Where actors performs in a theatre but they are all widely spaced and reading off music stands and are both audio and video recorded. No audience. They are then releasing the recordings in facebook and youtube channel.

As for THIS play with only 5 people in the cast it COULD have been done safely. We could have been spaced out across the stage without it even looking awkward. The rehearsals were safe. I don't know about the audience. With recycled air that's might make it unsafe. There is enough room in this theatre that they'd be like way up in the nose bleed sections all spaced out. But I think the only people that would go are people that won't keep their masks on.

I think the issue would become if the vaccine ends up not being viable you have a large swath of people thinking they are immune who aren't and difficulty following up with them to advise them they aren't.

I'll audition for you! :)

I'm not comfortable with hours in a theatre daily rehearsing. I have some friends doing more filming, but that has to be done well to look good and I don't have the budget or manpower to do it well.

Quick reminder

The US just reported its highest number of new coronavirus infections in a single day -- 102,831 on Wednesday, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

Clearly did not disappear after Election Day

SI

It has to wait until the election is settled. It magically disappears by December is what I've been told.

I'm sure that date just moves after they realize that didn't actually happen.

Oh, duh. Makes sense :D

SI

You kidding me? All I hear on the news is democrats stealing the election this/Patriots saving America that. I don't hear nuthin bout no China flu.

My wife literally deals with these people every day. She runs an internal medicine group in SC. They went 25 for 25 positive on patient COVID tests yesterday. New high for a perfect day.

https://apnews.com/article/counties-...6715da6edb6ebf

Not surprising

A couple days of 120k new cases, and 1,200 deaths do not bode well. The fact that deaths are up more than 20% over where they have been should be cause for some alarm. Then look at where new cases are and it should set up a certain level of panic.

I suspect there's a good chance there will be an additional spike from the millions of people who voted in person on Tuesday.

St. Charles County poll worker tested positive for COVID-19, worked Election Day and has died, county says | St. Charles | stltoday.com

In Trumpsville, Indiana, the guy who took me to my station and showed me how to vote wore his mask under his nose the entire time.

Not exactly a high risk situation as such. The congregating before and after are more of an issue.

But what will be putting the nail(s) in the coffin are Thanksgiving and Christmas. Especially since it will be by definition multi-generational gatherings and thus punching through any sort of barrier that's still keeping transmissions within younger age groups. Going into those days with the levels of spread that are developing now ... Sad as it sounds, but the one thing that might help is the near envitabilizy of 1500-2000 deaths days before that making people perk up and take note (delay between cases and deaths is what it is and the US 7 day average is now almost twice as high in cases as they were 3 weeks ago).
If people by and large don't at least try to lower the odds in some way this is guaranteed to be a desaster.
(smaller groups, shorter meetings, open windows wide in between and maybe use the time to physically leave the room, severely limit social interactions beforehand or even do a mini-isolation, stay the hell away if you had known close exposure, feel sth coming on or even have distinct symptoms like funny smell/taste)

The 7 day moving average of new cases is far above any previous number. We've hit well over 100k the past few days in a row. We passed the previous 7-day average high on Oct 26 and it's gone nearly vertical since. The last peak for the 7 day for new cases was on July 25. The corresponding peak of the highest 7 day average for deaths was on August 4 and we could have expected it to pass the previous average around the 5th or 6th, given the rise of new cases that we've seen recently, but it's not quite there yet. We don't know exactly if that's because of better treatment, more tests, or a weaker virus, but we can see a lessening of the strength of the correlation between those numbers. Having said that, we've been beyond that number 4 of the last 6 days, and should jump beyond it on the 8th or 9th at the current rate. The moving average for the last 3 days is at 188% percent of the previous peak moving 7 day where those numbers were derived. Using that, we should expect to see somewhere between 2000-2200 deaths per day as the 7 day moving average again, probably within the next 10-14 days. If the number of cases continues to rise, we'll blow past the previous high for the 7 day moving average for deaths per day (about 2250/day) from way back in April.

Bronconick, you were right.

I almost think that Biden should have thanked the Coronavirus for the endorsement. I think the Trump administration incompetence and dismissal of the threat played a part in his defeat.