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st.cronin 10-26-2006 04:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith (Post 1284347)
Cronin's reasoning is sound


well allelujah

Tyrith 10-26-2006 04:11 PM

I really don't want to kill cronin.

UNVOTE FOUTS
VOTE ALAN

SnDvls 10-26-2006 04:13 PM

correct me if I'm wrong

(445) AlanT votes Cronin (1)
(452) Lathum votes Cronin (2)
(454) Cronin votes Lathum (1)
(527) Cronin unvotes Lathum(0)***
(527) Cronin votes AlanT (1)
(538) Anxiety votes Cronin (3)
(546) Cronin unvotes AlanT(0) ***
(546) Cronin votes Cronin (4)
(553) BrianD votes Cronin (5)
(564) Spleen votes AlanT(1)
(573) Tyrith votes Fouts (1)
(580) LSG votes AlanT (2)
(586) Cronin unvotes Cronin (4) ***
(586) Cronin votes AlanT(3)

(4) Cronin - AlanT (445), Lathum (452), Anxiety (538), BrianD (553)
(3) AlanT - Spleen (564), LSG (580), Cronin (586)
(1) Fouts - Tyrith (573)
(0) Lathum

SnDvls 10-26-2006 04:13 PM

dola
damn I'll fix it with Tyrith's recent change.

SnDvls 10-26-2006 04:15 PM

as of post #604

correct me if I'm wrong

(445) AlanT votes Cronin (1)
(452) Lathum votes Cronin (2)
(454) Cronin votes Lathum (1)
(527) Cronin unvotes Lathum(0)***
(527) Cronin votes AlanT (1)
(538) Anxiety votes Cronin (3)
(546) Cronin unvotes AlanT(0) ***
(546) Cronin votes Cronin (4)
(553) BrianD votes Cronin (5)
(564) Spleen votes AlanT(1)
(573) Tyrith votes Fouts (1)
(580) LSG votes AlanT (2)
(586) Cronin unvotes Cronin (4) ***
(586) Cronin votes AlanT(3)
(602) Tyrith unvotes Fouts (0) ***
(602) Tyrith votes AlanT (4)

(4) Cronin - AlanT (445), Lathum (452), Anxiety (538), BrianD (553)
(4) AlanT - Spleen (564), LSG (580), Cronin (586), Tyrith (602)
(0) Fouts
(0) Lathum

st.cronin 10-26-2006 04:15 PM

That's a lot of people still haven't voted.

Alan T 10-26-2006 04:15 PM

Woo, love the sudden vote swing while I left to go home :)

Well at least on the bright side its now a race to see where people draw their allegiances. Not sure what else I can say, I've pretty much given my opinions on things all day to the point you all are voting me because you're tired of them :)

If folks have questions, I'll answer them. Otherwise I'll just sit back and watch for a while.

SnDvls 10-26-2006 04:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin (Post 1284368)
That's a lot of people still haven't voted.


not votes thus far

path12, ntndeacon, Glengoyne, Mr. Wednesday, Chief Rum, Fouts, saldana, SnDvls, hoopsguy

Mr. Wednesday 10-26-2006 04:21 PM

I really don't want a st.cronin vs. Alan face-off today. Unfortunately, my other choices for piling onto have disappeared.

SnDvls 10-26-2006 04:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday (Post 1284381)
I really don't want a st.cronin vs. Alan face-off today. Unfortunately, my other choices for piling onto have disappeared.


there are still 9 of us who also feel that way too by the non-votes

st.cronin 10-26-2006 04:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday (Post 1284381)
I really don't want a st.cronin vs. Alan face-off today. Unfortunately, my other choices for piling onto have disappeared.


I urge you to put forth a candidate. There are, what, 9 players who haven't voted? Anything can happen.

Alan T 10-26-2006 04:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday (Post 1284381)
I really don't want a st.cronin vs. Alan face-off today. Unfortunately, my other choices for piling onto have disappeared.


Its 4 to 4 with alot of people who haven't voted yet. If you have someone else there is plenty of time to make a case for them. The way you are making yourself sound you're trying to set up distance for a possible villager lynch where you can later say "I didn't want either to die"

I feel pretty comfortable in a run off with Cronin right now, I think the Stars still have the odds of numbers and in the end I'll win this vote. I think I'm pretty convinced after Cronin tried to make people have doubts that he might be the police chief. So I'm ok sitting back like this is.. but I don't like your approach of sitting back and saying well I dont want to vote for either of them but you all are forcing me to.

If you want to vote for someone else, do it and make a case for them. Otherwise vote for who you think is most likely bad (even if its for me) then that way you have some accountability when it turns up that Im good.

SnDvls 10-26-2006 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin (Post 1284386)
I urge you to put forth a candidate. There are, what, 9 players who haven't voted? Anything can happen.


ha beat you to it :)

Alan T 10-26-2006 04:24 PM

As everyone chimes out with the same thing lol..

Alan T 10-26-2006 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SnDvls (Post 1284388)
ha beat you to it :)


You beat me to it too.. but I typed more!

LoneStarGirl 10-26-2006 04:25 PM

To be honest I dont want a cronin vs alan thing today either, they both lead the discussion and throw out a lot of ideas. But i can't shake this feeling that alan is playing us. And I too said F this in my last game cuz i felt i was being ganged up on for no reason... so i probably am sympathizing with Cronin

Tyrith 10-26-2006 04:27 PM

How can us STARS know to save you Alan? What real solid evidence have you given us to swing the vote away from you? Really I don't want you or cronin to be lynched today; I prefer that the two of you go at it a while longer and drag in some more people so we can learn more later. But there is zero momentum for anyone else. I'm willing to try Fouts again, or really if anyone has any kind of ideas please just put them out there.

st.cronin 10-26-2006 04:30 PM

Tyrith, Mr. W:

Do either of you have any thoughts on Lathum or BrianD? Or even hoopsguy?

Alan T 10-26-2006 04:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith (Post 1284402)
How can us STARS know to save you Alan? What real solid evidence have you given us to swing the vote away from you? Really I don't want you or cronin to be lynched today; I prefer that the two of you go at it a while longer and drag in some more people so we can learn more later. But there is zero momentum for anyone else. I'm willing to try Fouts again, or really if anyone has any kind of ideas please just put them out there.


Right now as Im watching today, I am just noting who makes what cases for what. I guess I'm looking to see who is using what I feel is sound judgement for their cases and giving good reasoning for it. There are some who seem to be making some BS excuses and jumping on one or the other.. there are others who seem to be trying to distance themselves from any bad response at all..

If I do live today, I won't necessarily think bad of someone because they voted for me. I will however think bad of someone who votes for me because of a lame reason, or does the vote and run or such.

I can't give you any proof not to vote for me, but I have given you mathematical reasons why others are better votes today. Even if not 100%, its still the mathematical best choices.

Tyrith 10-26-2006 04:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin (Post 1284407)
Tyrith, Mr. W:

Do either of you have any thoughts on Lathum or BrianD? Or even hoopsguy?


The entire Brian thing was overblown. KWhit was very likely just doing a typical Day 1 thing and was a mostly random kill. Right now he's in the big group of neutrals I have.

Lathum, I don't like his plan of killing everyone that's been talking seeing that it will collect me eventually :) He's doing his typical Lathum thing, somehow dodging attention even though he stirred up trouble yesterday. Definately worth keeping an eye on.

Hoops...my paranoid fear was that he and Lathum were bad guys together again and doing another distraction ploy to seperate themselves, but I quickly dismissed that because of the way we like to create Day 1 dogpiles for no good reason. Hoops scares me just because he's hoops.

The one thing I've really noticed is how Lathum has managed to isolate himself from cronin, hoops, and possibly alan. I'm not really sure what to make of this.

And I still hate my vote.

Mr. Wednesday 10-26-2006 04:37 PM

OK, I think I'll have a little bit of a go at setting a field other than st.cronin and Alan.

Lathum: First vote overall, voted for hoops and switched to st.cronin; if you trust both players, this should be worrisome. Briefly caught a stray vote by Chief Rum.
Fouts: First vote on st.cronin, but hasn't done anything else that should attract attention. Caught a stray vote by ntndeacon.
ntndeacon: First vote on fouts, left it there as a stray vote.
hoopsguy, spleen, Tyrith, Sndvls: Early rush onto bulletsponge.
path12: Created a tie by voting for st.cronin, says it was intentional at that stage to try to flush more votes.
BrianD, Saldana, myself: Next rush of votes onto bulletsponge; I justify my vote by observing that by now, it's been far too long without any word from him.
LoneStarGirl: Makes a possible throwaway vote when it appears that bulletsponge is pretty securely lynched; as we know that he was STARS, we can be sure that there would not have been a late rush by Umbrella/zombies to save him.
Glengoyne and Chief Rum: votes so late on Bulletsponge that they are effectively throwaways.

path12 10-26-2006 04:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday (Post 1284332)

I have another person who would interest me as a possible candidate, but as we're playing a little close to the vest on the whole chief thing, I'm not comfortable getting into that yet.


I just went back through all of day 1 and I'm in the same boat you describe here.

Lathum 10-26-2006 04:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith (Post 1284423)

Lathum, I don't like his plan of killing everyone that's been talking seeing that it will collect me eventually :) He's doing his typical Lathum thing, somehow dodging attention even though he stirred up trouble yesterday. Definately worth keeping an eye on.


.


lol

Mr. Wednesday 10-26-2006 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith (Post 1284423)
The one thing I've really noticed is how Lathum has managed to isolate himself from cronin, hoops, and possibly alan. I'm not really sure what to make of this.

That's an interesting observation, which might actually tend to be in his favor.

path12 10-26-2006 04:44 PM

I would like to ask this question: Does anyone think that both cronin and AlanT are stars?

Mr. Wednesday 10-26-2006 04:46 PM

I think it's possible. I don't have a firm opinion on it, though.

Tyrith 10-26-2006 04:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by path12 (Post 1284450)
I would like to ask this question: Does anyone think that both cronin and AlanT are stars?


The thought has certainly crossed my mind.

Fouts 10-26-2006 04:51 PM

Ok, caught up. After reading Alan's reasoning about why he chose myself and cronin, I can see where he's going with it. The flaw is that if we only have 2 candidates (both STARS), then the PC is pigeon-holed into voting for one of them.

I think there is a reason the zombies kiled KWhit. They are after the PC, so they had an inkling that KWhit might have been the PC.

SnDvls 10-26-2006 04:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith (Post 1284455)
The thought has certainly crossed my mind.


it should have crossed most people's minds, only because today is really like day 1 in that bullett didn't even know he was playing. day 1 usually is two villagers fighting it out. I guess you could say some of this also happened yesterday though.

hoopsguy 10-26-2006 04:53 PM

Catching up, but I'm willing to back an alternate candidate besides the two guys with four votes.

Fouts 10-26-2006 04:55 PM

I think we need a 3rd candidate. Giving the PC only 2 options may not help us later in the game. I agree with others in that the PC's biggest role is his voting record.

vote BrianD

hoopsguy 10-26-2006 05:00 PM

Just a general question - if you had the ability as a member of STARS to night scan last night, who would you have gone after?

Would you have gone after a particular player because of track record in the game or would you have gone after someone who, situationally, made sense after Day 1 was complete?

This is factoring into my thinking right now as I'm going back to review Day 2 behavior.

Tyrith 10-26-2006 05:00 PM

Gonna be gone for two hours or so. I hope we come up with another candidate while I'm gone :)

path12 10-26-2006 05:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 1284479)
Just a general question - if you had the ability as a member of STARS to night scan last night, who would you have gone after?

Would you have gone after a particular player because of track record in the game or would you have gone after someone who, situationally, made sense after Day 1 was complete?


I would have gone after either you or cronin.

path12 10-26-2006 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saldana (Post 1283405)
i spent the rest of the day at work contemplating things, and i am relatively sure that cronin is a good guy. i have no take on bullet at this point, but unless i am way off base, cronin and i are on the same team...my vote is to keep him alive.


saldana, do you still feel this way?

path12 10-26-2006 05:07 PM

Sorry about all the questions, I'm trying to work out some things in my mind but want to be careful about what I put out there at the moment.

So then, one more: Does anyone feel Lathum and AlanT are both stars?

And finally: Does all this star/non-star talk remind anyone else of the Sneetches?

hoopsguy 10-26-2006 05:08 PM

If somone scanned Cronin last night and learned his faction was STARS, how do you think they would operate today? Just how public would they want to be in the process of defending him?

Flip it around - if they scanned him and saw him as another faction, would they come out and reveal directly or hope that we followed up on the candidate from yesterday?

So right now I'm trying to figure out if someone is taking a hard stand either way on him and how that might differ from yesterday's thoughts on Cronin.

Mr. Wednesday 10-26-2006 05:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 1284479)
Just a general question - if you had the ability as a member of STARS to night scan last night, who would you have gone after?

Would you have gone after a particular player because of track record in the game or would you have gone after someone who, situationally, made sense after Day 1 was complete?


If I weren't thinking as much as I should about it, I'd go after someone like Alan who was doing a lot of talking, so that I knew how much stock to put in it.

If I were thinking a little bit more clearly, I would probably take a shot at identifying the target of a possible police chief (not the chief himself), which would give info both about the target and about the prospective chief.

The discussion about how the chief I think came late enough that I might not have been bright enough to think about the second angle.

Mr. Wednesday 10-26-2006 05:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 1284497)
If somone scanned Cronin last night and learned his faction was STARS, how do you think they would operate today? Just how public would they want to be in the process of defending him?

Flip it around - if they scanned him and saw him as another faction, would they come out and reveal directly or hope that we followed up on the candidate from yesterday?

So right now I'm trying to figure out if someone is taking a hard stand either way on him and how that might differ from yesterday's thoughts on Cronin.


Has anybody really played it differently today than yesterday, though? I'm thinking not... Alan was pressuring him yesterday, and has been pushing today too. There's been some general unease in other quarters, but nothing I'd count as an outright defense.

hoopsguy 10-26-2006 05:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 1283956)
I've seen this game from AlanT before and I don't trust him one bit. My vote was for St.Cronin yesterday and I am sticking with it today but IF he is lynched AND he comes up good I am all over AlanT tomorrow.

VOTE ST.CRONIN



Lathum, this is one of the things that make me uneasy about you.

1.) You vote for me Day 1
2.) You chastise Alan for his play today, then say you are sticking with your Day 1 vote. But if you Day 1 and 2 vote, St. Cronin is wrong, then you are blaming Alan for it

That is the kind of table-setting you can do more easily with somewhat complete information. Cronin and I both maintain that you cannot be the Police Chief and make the votes you have made this game. So you do not have player information in that manner .... what does that leave? Hmm, two factions that know each other.


If I believe Cronin today I really think you are the person that we should be voting for more than Alan or Fouts or anyone else who has been suggested.

Mr. Wednesday 10-26-2006 05:22 PM

I'm going to make a semi-placeholder vote right now, but I am very interested in hoops' latest line of discussion. (i.e. there's a reasonable chance my vote will change before the end of the night, er, day)

VOTE BrianD

path12 10-26-2006 05:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fouts (Post 1284473)
I think we need a 3rd candidate. Giving the PC only 2 options may not help us later in the game. I agree with others in that the PC's biggest role is his voting record.

vote BrianD


I would also like a 3rd candidate, but I see absolutely no reason to suspect BrianD.

vote Lathum

I see no way that both Lathum and AlanT are stars, and I'm more willing given the posts to date to give Alan the benefit of the doubt.

hoopsguy 10-26-2006 05:25 PM

I'll go ahead and put my vote down for now. Time will tell if Lathum can move me off of it.

VOTE LATHUM

saldana 10-26-2006 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by path12 (Post 1284492)
saldana, do you still feel this way?


yes...i think alan's logic is highly flawed...he is making huge leaps and assumptions that i am not comfortable with...i am not sure yet where my vote will land but it will be either alan or lathum today...cronin is on the radar, but is a very small blip at this point

hoopsguy 10-26-2006 05:56 PM

I think I have found what I was looking for earlier. There is not much chance that I will be voting for Cronin today.

BrianD 10-26-2006 06:00 PM

So why am I picking up votes?

BrianD 10-26-2006 06:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 1284552)
I think I have found what I was looking for earlier. There is not much chance that I will be voting for Cronin today.


You might need to expand on this a bit.

hoopsguy 10-26-2006 06:06 PM

Brian, I think I'm narrowing in on a few roles after having the last 45 minutes to review posts from today. I do not think it is necessarily in STARS' best interests to expand on what roles are potentially held by who (heck, I'm wrong a lot) but for today I'm unlikely to vote for Cronin.

path12 10-26-2006 06:19 PM

I'll be out in about 10 minutes and likely not back before lynch -- the gf signed us up for some kind of get out the vote volunteer thing. I'm fine with where I'm at anyway -- I think we get the most information out of either Alan or Lathum right now.

Glengoyne 10-26-2006 06:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith (Post 1284264)
Alan. I listened to Alan connect the dots...which might have been a mistake. His entire theory on Day 1 has kind of gone too far at this point, I think.


This is where I stand with a little over a page to catch up on. Up to this opint I have been thinking I was going to vote Alan. If the choice is Alan or Cronin. I didn't see the Cronin connection so much as others, so I was sharing his frustration with receiving heat. Then I just got to the self vote. That throws me into a quandry.

Early votes are brutal, as there is so little to go on. I know I'm much more comfortable evaluating a person's posts in light of their voting history after a few days. I know the conventional wisdom is that the wolves benefit if there is no lynch...I just have a problem with that in the early going. We don't have any history voting, in game actions, or really even post history to hold against someone. If someone strongly represents wolf, at least in my estimation, then I'll vote for them early and often. I'm just not comfortable voting with no guidance early in the game.

Just a note: A long damn time has passed since I typed this post, but I'm hitting submit anyway.

Alan T 10-26-2006 06:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by path12 (Post 1284586)
I'll be out in about 10 minutes and likely not back before lynch -- the gf signed us up for some kind of get out the vote volunteer thing. I'm fine with where I'm at anyway -- I think we get the most information out of either Alan or Lathum right now.


Well someone is going to have to get the guts to break the tie to get any information from anyone. Even if it means voting for me, as the way things are we dont learn anything.

I already told you what you will learn if you lynch me tonight, so if you want to pursue that go for it. I'll be good, and everyone will be going after Cronin tommorrow.

I honestly don't know what going after BrianD tonight tells us.. we went over that discussion earlier today and for the life of me I don't know why people are choosing him other than just to have a 3rd candidate. I think Fouts, Lathum, Cronin all make better 3rd candidates today.. I dont have a problem with people voting for him, but i need more than a placeholder or a third option (since we have 4).

I think the people who have argued the case against Cronin, myself and Lathum all have laid out semi-believable arguements one way or another. Even if I dont agree with it, at least they put effort into it that can be looked at and analyzed later.

So this is mainly to Fouts and Mr.Wednesday who just threw votes away at BrianD, if you are going to do so at least give a reason why for people to agree with and join you on or to disagree with. Also gives him the ability to defend himself.

I personally still think lynching Cronin is the best idea, but I have spent most of the day explaining why. If you disagree with it, then at least give the reason why you are voting someone else (This also goes for those who just jumped on votes because.. well they wanted to)

Alan T 10-26-2006 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Glengoyne (Post 1284593)
This is where I stand with a little over a page to catch up on. Up to this opint I have been thinking I was going to vote Alan. If the choice is Alan or Cronin. I didn't see the Cronin connection so much as others, so I was sharing his frustration with receiving heat. Then I just got to the self vote. That throws me into a quandry.

Early votes are brutal, as there is so little to go on. I know I'm much more comfortable evaluating a person's posts in light of their voting history after a few days. I know the conventional wisdom is that the wolves benefit if there is no lynch...I just have a problem with that in the early going. We don't have any history voting, in game actions, or really even post history to hold against someone. If someone strongly represents wolf, at least in my estimation, then I'll vote for them early and often. I'm just not comfortable voting with no guidance early in the game.

Just a note: A long damn time has passed since I typed this post, but I'm hitting submit anyway.


Well thats the thing. Only a small handful of people know anything for sure in the early parts of the game, and those people are most likely going to not come out and say it in order to try to build more information.

So usually the first few days you dont have a ton to go on but we still have to vote. We still need the record of who you went with, who you believed and who you didnt believe.

If you vote me and I end up getting lynched, will it look bad for you? Of course it will, but then its up to everyone else to determine if you were just a misguided villager that fell for other people's stories, or if you were one of the people who jumped into a close vote to try to edge it one way or another.

Can an innocent villager's actions wrongly condemn them? Sure they can, but sometimes thats all we have, and a little wheat has to be burnt for the sake of the entire crop.

Lathum 10-26-2006 06:29 PM

hoops, I voted for you day one as a place holder. I already stated that I would rather cast the early vote then not vote at all.

As for my stance on Alan, I have seen him play a similar game as a wolf. That being said I am sticking with my cronin vote because of my own reasoning, not because of anything Alan said. If cronin turns up good then I made a mistake that alot of people make early in werewolf games.

Lathum 10-26-2006 06:29 PM

hoops, I voted for you day one as a place holder. I already stated that I would rather cast the early vote then not vote at all.

As for my stance on Alan, I have seen him play a similar game as a wolf. That being said I am sticking with my cronin vote because of my own reasoning, not because of anything Alan said. If cronin turns up good then I made a mistake that alot of people make early in werewolf games.

hoopsguy 10-26-2006 06:37 PM

Lathum, but it gave the strong appearance that you were displacing blame for your vote.

Your Day 1 vote was for me initially. You moved it when I pushed back and two other candidates emerged.

Day 2 emerges, you suggest that you own the Cronin vote (Alan is following you) but if that vote for the last two days - remember, you are claiming it rather than the 'placeholder' on me - is wrong it isn't you who is responsible. It is Alan T!

People make mistakes all the times in werewolf games with their votes. Clearly a portion of the 11 people yesterday (me included) did exactly that. But you certainly gave me the impression that you were setting up the dominos with your comments today for WHEN you make a mistake.

Glengoyne 10-26-2006 06:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday (Post 1284426)
...
Glengoyne and Chief Rum: votes so late on Bulletsponge that they are effectively throwaways.


I work. I had nothing to go on early yesterday. Same today.

I'm catching up, and making my mind up along the way. Yesterday, my vote was essentially throw away, but only because the decision was made hours before while I was away. I had actually made up my mind fairly early in the "thread history", when SnDvls laid out his reasoning for voting bullet.

Today as I'm reading along, it looks like voting late is going to put me in a tight spot, as it is a tight race with me as one of the deciding factors. Since this vote is going to count, I'm going to try and put some serious evaluation into it. My gut says to vote Alan, but my gut was dead wrong about Saldana in Tombstone, and there I felt I had little bits of evidence at least. I'll be back after catching up, and then following up.

Fouts 10-26-2006 06:42 PM

Alan, maybe I only alluded to my reason. I think it is imperative that the zombies find the PC. They are trying to determine, thru posts and votes, who it is. They chose KWhit. Why?

My reasoning is that he hit on something with the BrianD vote. It is possible that they read something into his posts, but I think it is likely he scared them.

It also gives the PC another option rather than 2 STARS candidates. What I don't want to see happen is when the PC goes down, his record being multiple STARS votes because he had no choice.

We will be lynching the people he voted for, so he has a responsibility to show us the way, even in death.

SnDvls 10-26-2006 06:44 PM

vote AlanT

I guess I'll be the tie breaker

I believe St. C more today and yesterday and his actions today tend to favor what I feel. Sorry Alan, but you seem to be playing the helpful wolf role again. You've been on most of today, but when the heat seemed to get pushed towards you tailed off. I guess this will also force some others too.

Alan T 10-26-2006 06:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fouts (Post 1284626)
Alan, maybe I only alluded to my reason. I think it is imperative that the zombies find the PC. They are trying to determine, thru posts and votes, who it is. They chose KWhit. Why?

My reasoning is that he hit on something with the BrianD vote. It is possible that they read something into his posts, but I think it is likely he scared them.

It also gives the PC another option rather than 2 STARS candidates. What I don't want to see happen is when the PC goes down, his record being multiple STARS votes because he had no choice.

We will be lynching the people he voted for, so he has a responsibility to show us the way, even in death.


Just out of curiosity, you do know that you are giving a reason back to me that I originally came up with about BrianD? :) We discussed it some and didn't put alot of credence to. So my question back to you is why do you put more credence to my theory then I do.. What in our discussion on him earlier did we miss or overlook in your opinion?

Fouts 10-26-2006 06:46 PM

Just to add, I am not saying that st.cronin and Alan are STARS. I have no knowledge of their faction. Their posts make me believe they are STARS, even if they are reaching with their theories.

Alan T 10-26-2006 06:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SnDvls (Post 1284628)
vote AlanT

I guess I'll be the tie breaker

I believe St. C more today and yesterday and his actions today tend to favor what I feel. Sorry Alan, but you seem to be playing the helpful wolf role again. You've been on most of today, but when the heat seemed to get pushed towards you tailed off. I guess this will also force some others too.


What heat did I tail off on? Other than the hour I left to drive home from work, I've been here the entire time. Are you just making that up? :)

I have taken the heat all day and responded with my opinions. Its posts like this that will stand out after I am lynched and I want everyone to remember it.

Alan T 10-26-2006 06:49 PM

I mean seriously, if anyone has any question meant for me that i have missed today, please re-ask it because I missed it.

Unlike Cronin yesterday who disappeared every time I asked him a question about his stance or did not respond to what I felt was faulty logic, I instead have responded and in some cases over-responded to every single question asked.

You all can accuse me of many things, being naive, having a horrible theory, being way too pushy, or whatever... but not responding to heat? Please :)

Fouts 10-26-2006 06:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T (Post 1284629)
Just out of curiosity, you do know that you are giving a reason back to me that I originally came up with about BrianD? :) We discussed it some and didn't put alot of credence to. So my question back to you is why do you put more credence to my theory then I do.. What in our discussion on him earlier did we miss or overlook in your opinion?


Sorry, I didn't remember who came up with the theory. While reading 4 pages of stuff, it was exactly what I was thinking when I saw who they killed. I kept thinking, why KWhit?

It's the only evidence I have right now. KWhit is dead for a reason. I'm trying to figure it out.

Fouts 10-26-2006 06:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T (Post 1284635)
I mean seriously, if anyone has any question meant for me that i have missed today, please re-ask it because I missed it.

Unlike Cronin yesterday who disappeared every time I asked him a question about his stance or did not respond to what I felt was faulty logic, I instead have responded and in some cases over-responded to every single question asked.

You all can accuse me of many things, being naive, having a horrible theory, being way too pushy, or whatever... but not responding to heat? Please :)


I think you should acknowledge the huge hole in your 99.9% theory that st.cronin or fouts must be bad.

Tyrith 10-26-2006 06:52 PM

We have over 3 hours to lynch, so don't accuse me of making a tie. But I hate the Alan vote. My mind tells me cronin is probably a good guy. My gut is telling me that we should let Alan keep talking a while longer and see what people do to him. Lathum, however, is a different story. He tangled with Alan this morning and is doing his wonderful spectacular job at dodging any real blame. And to be honest, I'm kind of scared of him.

My problem with SnDvls reasoning is that Alan could be the helpful wolf or the helpful villager and it might look the same. Alan, you are far from my trust list, so don't think that I'm letting you get away, but I think we can learn more from you before it comes time to deal with you, one way or another.

UNVOTE ALAN
VOTE LATHUM

Alan T 10-26-2006 06:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fouts (Post 1284639)
I think you should acknowledge the huge hole in your 99.9% theory that st.cronin or fouts must be bad.


I already addressed that this morning. Even without the PC in the pixture, the odds of me being STARS, and choosing 3 people out of 18 and they -all- be stars is pretty minimal.

Then factor in the PC, and the actions we saw yesterday and I think what I calculated while at work, the chance of you all both being Stars is under 7%.

So that might not be 99.9%, but its such a huge advantage, that I will stick with it. If its my death via lynch, then so be it, but its better than any odds any of you all have provided me today as an option. And I have been listening and discussing options as they have come up (such as Brian D and Lathum)

Tyrith 10-26-2006 06:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T (Post 1284644)
I already addressed that this morning. Even without the PC in the pixture, the odds of me being STARS, and choosing 3 people out of 18 and they -all- be stars is pretty minimal.

Then factor in the PC, and the actions we saw yesterday and I think what I calculated while at work, the chance of you all both being Stars is under 7%.

So that might not be 99.9%, but its such a huge advantage, that I will stick with it. If its my death via lynch, then so be it, but its better than any odds any of you all have provided me today as an option. And I have been listening and discussing options as they have come up (such as Brian D and Lathum)


I think tomorrow we should be moving away from the strict mathematical theories and on to some more predictable things. Just because the odds are slim doesn't mean it isn't the truth, especially when things like this aren't products of random choices -- the people on the bad side could be manipulating our odds, so to speak.

Alan T 10-26-2006 06:58 PM

I like how Sndvls tosses out false accusations and then leaves immediately. As you can see my response was posted a minute after his.

Alan T 10-26-2006 06:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith (Post 1284651)
I think tomorrow we should be moving away from the strict mathematical theories and on to some more predictable things. Just because the odds are slim doesn't mean it isn't the truth, especially when things like this aren't products of random choices -- the people on the bad side could be manipulating our odds, so to speak.


Sure, give me a more predictable thing then. I'm open for ideas. Whats your more predictable idea that you would like to present for everyone to go for?

So far most of the ideas have been "Well he -feels- like a wolf" which is not very predictable.

Tyrith 10-26-2006 07:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T (Post 1284657)
Sure, give me a more predictable thing then. I'm open for ideas. Whats your more predictable idea that you would like to present for everyone to go for?

So far most of the ideas have been "Well he -feels- like a wolf" which is not very predictable.


Yeah, but by tomorrow we ought to be able to take in the context of this game other than knowing what odds the RNG might consider. If on Day 4 you're still talking about mathematics alone driving our votes, yeah, that'll be nonsense. Considerations like that decay over time because the bad guys will be able to exert more and more influence over the choices.

Alan T 10-26-2006 07:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith (Post 1284661)
Yeah, but by tomorrow we ought to be able to take in the context of this game other than knowing what odds the RNG might consider. If on Day 4 you're still talking about mathematics alone driving our votes, yeah, that'll be nonsense. Considerations like that decay over time because the bad guys will be able to exert more and more influence over the choices.


Thats my point. I am perfectly open for a more predictable option today, but everyone is all talk. People like bashing my ideas, but no one has presented one better.

Tyrith 10-26-2006 07:05 PM

Hence me saying "tomorrow". Stop bashing ME, dude.

Alan T 10-26-2006 07:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith (Post 1284663)
Hence me saying "tomorrow". Stop bashing ME, dude.


I think you are being a bit sensitive.... I reread what I wrote, and didn't even direct anything at you. I'm open to discuss, but I think you're taking stuff a bit personally :)

Glengoyne 10-26-2006 07:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by path12 (Post 1284450)
I would like to ask this question: Does anyone think that both cronin and AlanT are stars?


That is exactly what I'm worried about. Of course with the votes piling up on Alan after Cronin, that might identify that a bunch of people who know Cronin is on their team. I don't have enough to go on right now.

Alan T 10-26-2006 07:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Glengoyne (Post 1284666)
That is exactly what I'm worried about. Of course with the votes piling up on Alan after Cronin, that might identify that a bunch of people who know Cronin is on their team. I don't have enough to go on right now.


well you wont see people rushing to my rescue, and I dont want the chief to. I can be sacrificed if it means you all go after the people who voted for me tommorrow.

But if I know this game, people will find some reason that oh well everyone must have been misguided about Alan tommorrow and let my death go to waste :)

Tyrith 10-26-2006 07:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T (Post 1284665)
I think you are being a bit sensitive.... I reread what I wrote, and didn't even direct anything at you. I'm open to discuss, but I think you're taking stuff a bit personally :)


Sorry. I've been soaking a few insults today, I don't appreciate it a lot, but I know you're cool :) However, you have to admit that the mathematical approach has a weakness because the bad guys can influence in matters that are realistic to re-rolling the dice. Furthermore, cronin gave a mathematical reason for voting for you, too, hehe.

Tyrith 10-26-2006 07:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T (Post 1284671)
well you wont see people rushing to my rescue, and I dont want the chief to. I can be sacrificed if it means you all go after the people who voted for me tommorrow.

But if I know this game, people will find some reason that oh well everyone must have been misguided about Alan tommorrow and let my death go to waste :)


That's why we need to let you live another day or two, THEN kill you, muwhahahaha

Alan T 10-26-2006 07:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith (Post 1284672)
Sorry. I've been soaking a few insults today, I don't appreciate it a lot, but I know you're cool :) However, you have to admit that the mathematical approach has a weakness because the bad guys can influence in matters that are realistic to re-rolling the dice. Furthermore, cronin gave a mathematical reason for voting for you, too, hehe.


the whole well first vote for bullet is mathematically stronger than the second vote thing? Thats not mathematical, its psychological. I already have said I wasnt the police chief before he came to that realization, meanwhile Cronin was trying to hint that he was the chief which I have flat out said he isn't either.

I still dont feel bad about the bullet vote. Even if Cronin is a bad guy, I would rather have gotten the information to make me feel stronger about it before lynching someone who could be valuable

Alan T 10-26-2006 07:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith (Post 1284674)
That's why we need to let you live another day or two, THEN kill you, muwhahahaha


Well another mathematical fact for you... I have died on day 3 a higher percentage of games than any other day :)

hoopsguy 10-26-2006 07:14 PM

Votes as of Post #679:

(4) Cronin - AlanT (445), Lathum (452), Anxiety (538), BrianD (553)
(4) AlanT - Spleen (564), LSG (580), Cronin (586), SnDvls (658)
(3) Lathum - Path (642), Hoops (643), Tyrith (665)
(2) BrianD - Fouts (631), MrW (641)

No Votes: NTN, Glen, Chief Rum, Saldana

Tyrith 10-26-2006 07:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T (Post 1284676)
the whole well first vote for bullet is mathematically stronger than the second vote thing? Thats not mathematical, its psychological. I already have said I wasnt the police chief before he came to that realization, meanwhile Cronin was trying to hint that he was the chief which I have flat out said he isn't either.

I still dont feel bad about the bullet vote. Even if Cronin is a bad guy, I would rather have gotten the information to make me feel stronger about it before lynching someone who could be valuable


Oh, no reason to feel bad about it, I was all for it, but the fact that you aren't the chief does mean that there are fewer good guy slots you could occupy compared to the full boat of bad guy slots. Another weak margin.

Alan T 10-26-2006 07:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith (Post 1284683)
Oh, no reason to feel bad about it, I was all for it, but the fact that you aren't the chief does mean that there are fewer good guy slots you could occupy compared to the full boat of bad guy slots. Another weak margin.


Yes, but the same is said about Cronin... so I don't see how its relevant here though. Thats the point I am making. :)

I can see that arguement used in me vs someone who has the possibility of being the chief, but me vs cronin it does not apply in. Neither of us are the chief.

Tyrith 10-26-2006 07:17 PM

True. Sigh, these tiny mathematical margins will never get us anywhere in reality compared to the things people say, but at least math is consistent. Bleeeehhh.

hoopsguy 10-26-2006 07:17 PM

Alan, here is what I think is one of the interesting points for this game. If someone comes up as a non-STARS at the start of the game then the Chief will know every time they are lying. That presents a challenge for someone who is a high volume poster - chances are pretty good they are going to get smoked out early in the game if the Chief can wield any influence.

So, what is a person like that to do? Well, they could play their usual high-post style and demand people supply logic for their votes as he exits the game. Perfectly normal request, but by enforcing this logic he hopes to provide a better footprint for his teammates to attack going forward.

If that person was to come up with three random candidates, well the chances of all of them being STARS would not be 7%, would it? In fact, the chances of one of his teammates being one of the three "random" candidates would likely be pretty close to seven percent.

Alan T 10-26-2006 07:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 1284687)
Alan, here is what I think is one of the interesting points for this game. If someone comes up as a non-STARS at the start of the game then the Chief will know every time they are lying. That presents a challenge for someone who is a high volume poster - chances are pretty good they are going to get smoked out early in the game if the Chief can wield any influence.

So, what is a person like that to do? Well, they could play their usual high-post style and demand people supply logic for their votes as he exits the game. Perfectly normal request, but by enforcing this logic he hopes to provide a better footprint for his teammates to attack going forward.

If that person was to come up with three random candidates, well the chances of all of them being STARS would not be 7%, would it? In fact, the chances of one of his teammates being one of the three "random" candidates would likely be pretty close to seven percent.


I am not sure I quite follow you here. As a generic STARS with no role, the best benefit I can do is try to push people's buttons and get them to be logical with their thoughts rather than just hide behind the oh he feels bad lines. I can draw attention away from other STARS with bigger roles since my loss is of less importance.

Right now, there is me + 7 or 8 other stars out of 16 other people. When I did the math this morning and factored in the people who I either know cant be the PC or feel very strongly aren't the PC, I felt I had 93% odds between Fouts and St.Cronin we had at least 1 bad guy. Mix in the stuff Cronin has said that i called him out on yesterday and today, my feeling is a 99.9% chance that Cronin is bad. Do I know for sure? no so its not 100%.

st.cronin 10-26-2006 07:28 PM

hoopsguy, I certainly understand being suspicious of Lathum. I actually think he's more likely to be bad than Alan, but also more likely to be good. If that's possible.

Alan T 10-26-2006 07:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin (Post 1284701)
hoopsguy, I certainly understand being suspicious of Lathum. I actually think he's more likely to be bad than Alan, but also more likely to be good. If that's possible.


I've been reduced to nothingness? :)

I'm not quite sure what you mean by more likely to be bad or good... Im assuming you mean rolewise? more likely to have a role?

Tyrith 10-26-2006 07:31 PM

Alan is going to come into contact with anti-Alan and they will mutually annihilate, ruptering space time and erasing all knowledge of his existance from history.

Alan T 10-26-2006 07:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith (Post 1284704)
Alan is going to come into contact with anti-Alan and they will mutually annihilate, ruptering space time and erasing all knowledge of his existance from history.


My ex-wife would like that

st.cronin 10-26-2006 07:34 PM

Alan your theory assumes behavior for the police chief, which is what I did yesterday (and almost got lynched for it). You do realize this, don't you?

hoopsguy 10-26-2006 07:34 PM

Alan, what part of the scenario I painted do you not understand? I can get you saying that the scenario does not apply to you, but do you not understand the challenge that a high-volume poster would face, as I described it?

Alan T 10-26-2006 07:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 1284713)
Alan, what part of the scenario I painted do you not understand? I can get you saying that the scenario does not apply to you, but do you not understand the challenge that a high-volume poster would face, as I described it?


I dont see how it would apply to me since Im on the same side as the PC though.

Alan T 10-26-2006 07:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin (Post 1284710)
Alan your theory assumes behavior for the police chief, which is what I did yesterday (and almost got lynched for it). You do realize this, don't you?


my theory this morning assumes behavior. My mathematical percentage only assumes behavior based directed torwards me and things I know to be true.

st.cronin 10-26-2006 07:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T (Post 1284703)
I've been reduced to nothingness? :)

I'm not quite sure what you mean by more likely to be bad or good... Im assuming you mean rolewise? more likely to have a role?


I don't really know how to explain what I mean. I think in terms of math, you're more likely to be umbrella or zombie. But his behavior has been a little sketchier.

If I had to guess I'd say that you're 50/40/10 (in terms of likely to be) stars, umbrella, zombie, whereas Lathum is 60/20/20.

hoopsguy 10-26-2006 07:38 PM

Cronin, why do you think Lathum is more likely to be good than Alan?

Both have cast early votes on Day 1 and Day 2 for villagers if we are both STARS. So what else acts as a differentiator between these two for your vote?

LoneStarGirl 10-26-2006 07:40 PM

Okay, so I think Alan's theorys are border line far out there, but I dont think that makes him a zombie... After reading this and realizing that AlanT has in fact answered every question we have thrown at him, I have concluded either he got a degree in BS or he is a STARS. With that being said, I dont like the votes for Cronin... That leaves Lathum. And between lathum and alant, alant has been far more helpful and amusing thus far.

[b]Unvote AlanT/B]

Vote Lathum

Alan T 10-26-2006 07:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin (Post 1284720)
I don't really know how to explain what I mean. I think in terms of math, you're more likely to be umbrella or zombie. But his behavior has been a little sketchier.

If I had to guess I'd say that you're 50/40/10 (in terms of likely to be) stars, umbrella, zombie, whereas Lathum is 60/20/20.


Weird, the feeling i have to lathum is more likely 25/25/50 with most likely being zombie :)

I'm pretty sure that I am 100/0/0 but i will forgive you for not being exactly right. Since you only have me as 10% zombie, does that mean you're zombie and most likely dont think I'm on your team? (sorry I mainly kid here because at this point I don't know what direct attack will accomplish. I've said most of what I wanted to you) :)

LoneStarGirl 10-26-2006 07:41 PM

How silly...

Unvote AlanT

Vote Lathum

st.cronin 10-26-2006 07:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 1284721)
Cronin, why do you think Lathum is more likely to be good than Alan?

Both have cast early votes on Day 1 and Day 2 for villagers if we are both STARS. So what else acts as a differentiator between these two for your vote?


Part of the difference is that I don't know what side you're on.

Glengoyne 10-26-2006 07:42 PM

Well S#!%.

I don't feel strongly any of the front runners.

I was leaning Cronin's way, and looking to vote Alan, but he really seems to be being up front, and it is apparently more natural to lynch him tomorrow.

Then Cronin self voted and unvoted. Plus there was a wave of votes against Alan which might signify people coming to Cronin's aid. The self vote, self unvote makes me feel like voting for him, because it seems manipulative and planned. Lynching Cronin to find that he is Stars, tells us little. If we lynch him and he comes up other than STARS, then that would give us something concrete to go on. That might be something I can get behind. There is an upside to voting Cronin, IF he comes up evil.

I'm not real happy with the Lathum or BrianD votes, other than the fact that they aren't Cronin. BrianD has been less active, so there is a bit of attraction to that, plus the thought that lynching him might turn into a Jackpot if the wolves targetted Kwhit because he was a threat.

That makes BrianD and Cronin the two best votes in my book.

vote BrianD would give us two ties. vote Cronin would give us a leader with three voters left to go.

Honestly the most suspicious person I've seen was snDvls. He waltzes in says that AlanT backed off when the heat was applied, while I haven't been here watching, I did note, while catching up, that damn every other post seems to be Alan's. My gut is now telling me to vote SnDvls.

I'd feel better about lynching him than anyone else at the forefront. I don't know enough to know if this is going to make me look bad as if I'm dodging a tie break. I do know that he seems to have pretty clearly misrepresented the facts, and that would make me comfortable even being the first vote for him, even if he is somehow lynched.

It is the vote I feel best making

Vote SnDvls


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