Vote Dubb

I think it would do us well to keep things close between Dubb, Saldana and Dzzilla

this vote is subject to movement to Saldana once I decided how bad I wanna piss her off.

for instance, this sequence has my radar pinged, although i will admit what made me go back and look for his activity is his vote on me.


jackal was fine with his mau vote when he cast it to begin with, and even noted that mau would be back half an hour before deadline so he would have plenty of time to reveal...there is then nothing really in terms of analysis, but jackal still felt the need to change off of mau, who was rapidly gaining traction.

vote mauboy

Saldana is a female?

Hot

I understand this response much better this morning. after reading the rules again. I had 1st assumed the detective was the seerer. I guess my original quote should have been who do we suggest the adept to look at....sorry my bad. I see the detective is really just a watcher hench your sharp quip back at me. I was thinking the detective was a seerer and not just a "watcher"...my bad.

OOC:

Hey everyone,

Came down with some sort of stomach bug last night, which pretty much wiped out my night.

I'm in work right now trying to finish a project and then I am headed home to recover. I probably won't do much reading here until I get home. I'm only on Page 6 of 13 pages of reading, too, so I am a looooooong way behind. ;)

So if I am quiet for much of the day, that's why. I'll check in later. Thanks.

guess you dont wanna talk about that chris johnson trade anymore, do you, dbag

Not with Brandon Jacobs being the man. Nice loss by 1 yard last night, btw.

Dammit, I did it again. Sorry, I'll delete my mech post.

Oh really? Wouldn't we test the theory by voting the voter instead of votee?

A stretch regardless and it will not help your case today and probably gets attention drawn to you.

vote dubb

The defensive post to me when I voted him. My gut feeling on his post when he switched off lathum to bhlloy. And finally a late vote on j23.

The problem is you didn't really say that, you just said that if someone voted NTN to tie it back up, to create confusion, would be a wolf move. The problem with that is we can't lynch NTN without tying it back up. I think this was your play to try and end the NTN voting run. The only thing that gives me pause is I don't see why, if you were concerned about a tie vote, you didn't put it on J23. I can only guess it is because that would have brought you even more heat.



I'm not following what Saldana was trying to do there either, not sure how showing how people are voting for you is any condemnation on your part. Frankly I can't see why our votes are not all poured onto, spread out of course, not a runaway, either Dubb, Saldana, or DZ today.

That said I don't think Saldana gets that defensive as a wolf, could happen, but to me, even with NTN having cunning, it is just too much heat to put on yourself for a day one kill. I'm really torn about voting Dubb or DZ as I'm not high on either as being a villager, the thing that gets me into voting DZ though is coming off of NTN after RA had shown up and could have cast a deciding vote. Then not only after coming off when question making a comment how the move was, in essence, to not make confusion who our lynch choice should be. I get the whole we can't all come off the tie at the end, but if you would have waited 10 minutes, and did it 15 minutes to deadline you would have seen the vote was no longer tied.

Vote DZ

Current Tally - As of post 612
DZ() - RA(568), Gramm(599), Commo(612)
Saldana() - Jackal(593)
Dubb() - Lathum(601), Mauboy(611)
Mauboy() - Saldana(602)

Unvotes
None

Still to Vote
CrimsonFox
Danny
Autumn
Zinto
MrBug708
J23
Narcizo
Thomkal
dzilla77
Chief Rum
mckerney
EagleFan
SnDvls
dubb93
hoopsguy

Oops, forgot to put in the number of votes next to the names, early enough to still read it easy, but 3-1-2-1.

Not sure what I'll be doing for the vote today, but it will almost certainly NOT be going to someone who voted NTN yesterday. Sure that might lead to missing on someone who was converted last night, but I'll take my chances for at least one day chasing an "original" wolf.

So that rules out mauboy, among people I've seen with votes (anyone have a vote count). That also removes the person I voted for on Day 1.

Ask and you shall receive. Thanks, Commo.

Its clear that your mind is made up and you're trying to sell your reasoning to the rest of the group. I am a villager. When that is revealed by the cleansing flame, you will begin to rise on the list of suspicious characters.

I will withhold my vote for now, as it will likely be for self preservation (if that's even possible).

Of course the fact that it's know that there are conversions out there makes it really unlikely that an original wolf voted for NTN in my mind. Just what would the wolf hope to gain by throwing his vote on NTN? People voting him later as a possible "obvious" conversion. I guess this is what makes me take askance at dubb's stance this morning.

I think it bears thinking about who the wolves would likely pick as a convert. I'm not so sure that they would automatically pick an NTN voter, because that's what everyone would expect them to do. [/Vizzini] Were I a wolf I'd probably go with an experienced player but not one of the obvious choices of conversion.

Bah! Who am I kidding. If I were a wolf I'd convert Hoops in a flash and damn the consequences. :) I want a good excuse to PM-bomb him.

Hey bitches

I am more than likely going to look at early Danny, and Dubb voters along with people who voted for anyone not named ntn after Bhlloy revealed. Like everyone else thinks, I believe it is the best place to start. If there is not as many wolves as usual I doubt they could influence the vote greatly so that is something to keep in mind.

Catching up after class. First of all I just want to say I'm liking all the good arguments out there. It feels like good old fashioned WW with a lot of people getting involved in the analysis.

I actually like what Saldana found there with Jackal. It is indeed interesting that Jackal jumped from Mauboy to J23 just when Mauboy was getting heat. And if I remember correctly that was just after I made a comment wondering why suddenly Mauboy was getting a lot of votes instead of J23, when J23 had been the guy in the lead behind Bhlloy. If Mau is a wolf, Jackal may have been using that as a convenient excuse to move off of him when it was getting.

Alternately my original thought, and the reason I stayed with J23, was that it seemed like J23, who was the natural person to move to after bhlloy - being in the lead, being present, and having admitted to having no role - was not getting any votes. That makes me want to look at J23 again. Obviously these two theories are incompatible. It would mean a J23 wolf paired with at least one of those Mauboy voters.

A possible wolf/wolf runoff was also a reason dzilla might have not voted J23 after unvoting. But I always try to throw out theories that suggest I now know all of the wolves.

This stretch of voting is also interesting. Danny is the first to kind of push NTN out there as a non-bhlloy option after the reveal. Which would be a point where the wolves would need to gear into action.

danny votes ntn 297
CF unvotes mauboy 306
CF votes J23 306
Lahtum unvotes danny 310
lathum votes J23 310
commo unvotes bhlloy 318
mckerney unvotes bhlloy 329
mckerney votes mauboy 329
commo votes ntn 334
J23 unvotes bhlloy 352
J23 votes mauboy 354
bhlloy unvotes mauboy 357
bhlloy votes ntn 357

CF, Lathum, Mckerney, J23 all continue to go elsewhere than NTN. Danny and Commo look good for their votes here.

I would look among those four above, or based on that earlier series of voting, possibly look at EF or Jackal.

Day 2 so far

RA votes Dzilla 568
jackal votes saldana 594
grammaticus votes dzilla 599
lathum votes dubb 601
saldana votes mauboy 602
mauboy votes dubb 611
commo votes dzilla 612


dzilla - RA, grammaticus, commo
saldana - jackal
dubb - lathum, mauboy
mauboy - saldana

Maybe they tried to convert but the only option for the Keeper was to kill him?

Does the fact there was a kill last night suggest there was not a conversion?

Also keep in mind there was a lot of late movement. If there was a convert the wolves may have had that order in prior to knowing who was going to be lynched.

I think it's also possible that their night action has a % chance to convert, and if that fails, kills. We've seen that in other games. So a kill may just mean a failed conversion. But I think in this game it's also possible there's a possibility of both in one night.

Can't say there was a whole lot of reasoning going into my day one votes. Yesterday my vote on bhlloy was randomly picked from the people who had votes on them. After his reveal I switch to mauboy on as a guess on the candidates other than bhlloy.

I'd love to think that it's wolf-wolf but the pessimist in me just can't see us being that lucky.

Unsurprisingly I'm drawn to looking at the people who kept/have been keeping a low profile. I realise that it's pretty passé to think that wolves are going to keep under the radar because they're wolves and people are going to try and be themselves whatever they are but in a game this size it's going to be very easy for people to glide along without having to contribute - people like Zinto, mckerney, Bug and EagleFan.

My gut ready today is that Autumn is a wolf.

Who is on this list? Mckerney? RA? I might look here for my vote as well as I think there is a decent chance the other wolf(ves) are staying under the radar.

In a bit of a quandary about who to vote then as I don't want to make a(nother) throwaway vote but I'm not really liking a vote on any of the current candidates. I'd normally analysed stuff to death by this stage but I haven't had the time today.

I don't like the current candidates either, so throw out some names and lets discuss.

BTW, i full believe Dubb would have buried ntn if was a wolf (who knew ntn was also)

This vote doesn't necessarily need to stick here, but I am laying it down anyway. He's not one of the players with a solid day 1 vote and I have a gut feeling about him. Its early and this could easily chance though.

Boy, deja vu all over again. Remember how well that last gut read went, Danny? lol

I can't fault a vote on me, anyone who makes a last minute switch to a wolf that doesn't really change the vote is going to get a look, for sure. I don't think I make that move if I'm a wolf, but still, it's legit.

I think we benefit more from seeing who didn't vote NTN but could of, though. We have quite a few of those to go by.

dola

I think prime wolf voting time is not anywhere near the deadline. When I'm a wolf I feel like the day is done an hour or two before deadline, as making any moves then is just too dangerous. So I like to look back at more "mid day" moves to save wolves.

I dont have much to add. But I think Autumn's list of people who switched votes and avoided ntn originally, is a good list of candidates.

Why am I always on your radar? :(

Mau, in response to why i voted you instead of Jackal, when my premise was that he jumped off you to change the direction of the momentum is actually rather easy.

If i voted Jackal, it would just be converted into a "he voted for me so now he is being defensive and trying to make crap up"

so instead, i go to the person who i see as having benefited most from his manipulations yesterday, which is you, who placed their vote in the most perfect spot for a wolf to hide in the NTN...you werent early or late...you got in when you had to make a choice and timed it very well to blend in to the crowd.

I am wondering why no one has talked about ntn voting for Mau early as being a good point or a bad point for Mau. If you believe as some have said that the Red Death wouldn't place an early vote on each other since they could just convert later in the game then Mau looks better but if you think that the Red Death would then Mau looks slightly worse.

I guess my question for Danny is why did you pick J23 along with ntn? Is it something you care to share at this venture?

A big chance I may slip under the radar not on purpose though more of a case that school is slowly beginning to kick my butt.

Hopefully I can get a couple hours each day to delve into the game and post my thoughts though(other then dumb Mondays)

So Danny. Why Autumn? What about J23? Why J23?

I understand Autumn's vote last night looked terrible. I am also pretty sure it is a move I have seen made before as a wolf. That is probably why it looks so terrible this time around.

My radar normally has people who I don't think have contributed much the day before on it for the first few days. :shurg:

I'm not getting Danny's beef with Autumn - seems that he's been talking sense to me so far. Given lack of presence and dodgy voting record I'm going to

Vote Mckerney

I'm in no way set on anyone, but my gut is worst on you now. I'll relook over everything when I get home two hours to deadline and adjust as needed, but to best gauge things I want to at least have a vote in during the day.

I said last night that I think NTN's vote on Mauboy is inconclusive, for the reasons you state, that it's early enough to simply be a wolf on wolf vote.

For what it's worth (nothing, I'll readily agree) if I had to vote for a current candidate I'd probably plump for mau. He said something about me not looming at him yesterday which just struck me as being the sort of thing a wolf-mau might say. But apart from that I've not got that much to pin on him. But despite my doubts about dubb's arguments I'm not really seeing him being a wolf. Ditto Saldana and I think it's quite a stretch seeing Dzilla doing what he did as a wolf. Oh and I'm not seeing the argument against Autumn. Well, ok I am but I really don't see it as be enough to warrant a vote at this stage.

I think its possible ntn could have voted for a fellow Servant early on sure, but as a good reason to vote mauboy today? Not so much in my opinion. Keep an eye on Mauboy and where/when he votes? absolutely.

I actually find that part of yesterday's vote potentially the most valuable. Let's face it there's a reason for a Servant being an early vote on ntn, and a late vote but they are more like hunches without more proof.

But danny bringing ntn into the realm of possible lynched with less than 2 hours to go and the movement we saw immediately after that is where I think a Servant potentially could be. I go back and forth on it because I'm not sure ntn really was a big threat to be lynched at the point of the votes right after. Something to keep in mind as we go on. Mckerney making mauboy the second choice to J23 (I think, correct me if I'm wrong) is the most suspicious vote there if you want to believe in this theory.

Agreed.

yup

ELB has most of my attention today but I'm tempted to vote for Lathum or Narc for not making any sense to me or for Jackal as a hunch. I would also love to hear from Danny again and get some answers. For the amount of people in this game today has been relatively quiet.

Honestly looking back at the snipet of voting history since I really do not have time to look back at everything Jackal's voting looks the worst. He touched every candidate yesterday other then ntn so that is where I am going to place my vote.

Vote Jackal

First off, I'm pretty slammed at work, so I probably won't be able to contribute much today until closer to deadline, if much then. Anyway...

I understood your vote yesterday Autumn, and I actually think the move at the end to bury ntn is a good thing since we don't know what kind of voting manipulation might be in play. However, I'm really skeptical about your wolf/wolf theory for yesterday when a common thread throughout the discussions has been about he obvious conversion mechanics in place for this game. Given those mechanics, how many wolves do you think started this game? Out of the 24 people that started, you think we lucked into picking two wolves as the run-off candidates? On top of that you're saying that Dzilla would be a third wolf linked to the wolf/wolf run-off? That's just getting a bit ridiculous.

As for my moving my vote onto mau before ntn that someone brought up, I didn't want to pile on a guy that is often voted early due to not being around as much. It's why I originally put my vote on bhlloy rather than him as well (and I think I mentioned that last night as well).

I've got a flag fb game starting at our deadline so I won't be around to see last minute shenanigans. I should be able to sneak a quick peek about 10 minutes prior to deadline though.

I agree with this and I brought it up last night too. In fact it was the only reason I didn't vote NtN. Not saying if this wasn't in play that I would have voted him, I simply had no read on either player. Last night I was catching up in the last 25 minutes or so.

Also NtN is clearly fed up with this crap too and I don't blame him. See the vent thread. In the future short of a seer scan NtN is off my radar for the first game week and I think other people should consider this as well.

So you agree I wouldn't do that as a wolf yet vote me? Any reason you want to lynch villagers?

Something(one) you ate?

;)

Vote Lathum

I can't get past the fact that he agrees with Hoops that I would not do what I did yesterday as a wolf yet he wants to see me lynched.

I suggest others vote Lathum so we give him so motivation to explain this when he shows up.

vote saldana

Will be out most of the evening as the ELB draft starts live tonight and is taking up most of my time. I will try to check in a couple times prior but the draft will most likely keep me away at the deadline.

Voting sal for pretty much no reason except that he has a vote and wanting to keep it close. Don't want to vote dubb as he may be tied up in the draft as well so he won't be able to defend himself here.

Sadly, I probably should have passed on this one as I don't know if I will be able to keep up anything close to my normal participation.

Day two so far

RA votes Dzilla 568
jackal votes saldana 594
grammaticus votes dzilla 599
lathum votes dubb 601
saldana votes mauboy 602
mauboy votes dubb 611
commo votes dzilla 612
danny votes autumn 634
Narcizo votes mckerney 645
zinto votes jackal 654
dubb votes lathum 660


dzilla - RA, grammaticus, commo
saldana - jackal
dubb - lathum, mauboy
mauboy - saldana
autumn - danny
mckerney - narcizo
jackal - zinto
lathum - dubb

this spread is pretty insane right now. Of those who have a vote the only ones on my list of suspects for the day are Mckerney and Jackal, so I guess I'll be voting one of those rather than spread things further.

I'm more intent on those who voted after Bhlloy's reveal elsewhere, so I guess I prefer mckerney right now over Jackal. If Jackal's bad it makes it seem that Mauboy's bad, which seems a completely different can of worms than NTN, who we at least can be sure of.

vote mckerney

Autumn, you left out the blob at the end where I announce I want to vote for ntn if someone else wants to vote there. Raiders does (still not sure if was because I said that) and so I vote ntn, which tips ntn back to the win.

You forgot yourself who voted ntn only after ntn was winning. Granted I personally think there was a very LIKELY double vote potential there so I thought your vote wasn't that suspicious. Just your responses were a bit weak like "Ohhhhh if I HAAAAAAAAAAAAVE toooooo"

I left out a lot yeah. As I said earlier I'm more interested in the part directly after the reveal, where it's still up in the air. Once NTN had a lot of votes i think wolves tend to just stick to where they are, or even vote NTN. But in the very beginning is where they can try to steer things.

You're right that that list of suspects then needs a broader context. I just haven't had time to look into that.

Highly doubtful when there is a 2 AM night deadline.

Well at least they MAY have had a lynch order in early but surely ONE of them were still around to change it and just decided not to.

I can definitely understand not CONVERTING bhlloy as we'd obviously kill him or convert him right back.

Admittedly, I hate the first few days of werewolf because voting people off randomly seems so...mean

I wouldn't disagree here. I said last night that I wouldn't be surprised if a wolf was on a single. Zinto had basically 4 posts yesterday.

Bug though was already on my radar. SUre his vote on me was a funny little revenge joke for 2 games ago. But that's a typical excuse to hide behind as a wolf and he never moved it.

I know a bug vote won't go anywhere today however.

I actually really like this theory. The percent chance thing. Could be both but that is a plausible alternative.

No F-ing way Raiders was a wolf yesterday.

well saldana and dubb did themselves no favors yesterday and somewhat continue that trend today.

I do kinda agree with the autumn thing too.

for now,

vote saldana

actually I was agreeing that you would most certainly throw another wolf under the bus D1

I don't want to lynch villagers, It is much more fun to have them at night as a snack.

What is the case on mckerney, other than casting a later vote yesterday?

When do you not agree with the autumn thing?

My case is that he's one of the votes that came after bhlloy revealed, that wasn't on NTN. His was a key vote to push Mauboy up into contention instead. I haven't had time to look at what else he's been up to.

Didn't say he was, just naming players who are under the radar.

Again you lose me here. Hoops was actually arguing for people to not vote me since I did NOT throw NtN under the bus. You seem to agree with this and do exactly the opposite of what the arguer intended.

haha

Ties means everyone gets lynched, so everyone simply spread their votes to make sure a vote is on every player except me, and we win!

Autumn is too helpful of a villager for me to vote him now without much of a reason. I still have my eye on him though ;)

well his excuse was "I forgot I was playing and I don't check the site much." I usually ignore excuses but that one is so weird I believe it.

if you convert me, autumn, I won't vote for you. how's that?

Yeah, he was probably not a wolf then, could be one now or soon though.

I think the idea of voting for you, based on making an obvious/open wolf play, is not well conceived. Those who have played enough games for you just can't really see you posting in that way. If it did end up being some kind of double-move, counting on your rep, then you've gone a level deeper than I'm willing to play.

I potentially could be talked into voting Saldana in this spot, but that probably isn't where I would want to go if I had more time to digest posts. If he has the luxury of time (not always the case) he can be a pretty devious wolf as well. Transparent save attempts just don't seem all that likely to me.

If you don't vote Autumn then I will have to vote you.

Well said, and I agree.

Here we are I think:

dzilla 4 - raiders (568) grammaticus (599) Commo (612) SnDvls (669)
saldana 3 - jackal (594) eaglefan (662) crimsonfox (674)
dubb 2 - Lathum (601) mauboy (611)
mauboy 1 - saldana (602)
mckerney 2 - narcizo (645) autumn (665)
jackal 1 - zinto (654)
lathum 1 - dubb (660)


unvotes:
autumn - danny (684)

OK, for today I'm willing to be somewhat easily swayed. I'll likely change this if I do end up with time later in the evening to do some meaningful post diving, but in the event that doesn't happen I do need to get a vote down ...

VOTE MCKERNEY

BTW, my package including Star Trek: Fleet Captains just came and I am super psyched to play. The game looks awesome. But I have no one to play with until tomorrow as my wife has plans tonight :(.

Weird? In my experience that happens to about a half a dozen people per game. This game was actually unusual for everyone showing up!

Looking at the list, I didn't realize Mr. Bug was playing either. sndvls is a little under the radar as well.

Sorry, I'm just vanilla, I can't convert wolves back ;-)

Well looks like my vote on Jackal has gained no traction so...

Unvote Jackal

touche

updated w/ hoops in post 693, but I have/had the same FYI