I don't know if it helps or hurts, but before I step into a meeting I'm vanilla village duke - in case I end up near the noose.

You called? :D

I'm reeeeally dubious of Shoveler advancing the idea that a Duke should knowingly Duke another another Duke to take both out. What would a wolf love more than a double lynch?

Going to update the tally for the new page...

Day Two Vote Tally (as of Post #604)

Autumn (4)-- Shoveler (572), Narcizo (580), cheekimonk (584), Grover (598)
MartinD (3)-- timmae (495), EagleFan (500), Raven (595)
cheekimonk (2)-- Autumn (465), MartinD (579)

Yet to Vote: The Jackal, Vaimes, britrock88, MrBug708

Unable to Vote: fontisian

A triple lynch?

So the advantages to lynching Martin...
- if he doesn't duke, we find out his alignment
- if he dukes to Vaimes, we find out Vaimes's alignment
- if he dukes to Font, we find out Font's alignment and possibly Martin's as well (for duking to a duke)
- if he dukes elsewhere, we get 1 or 2 reveals

All but the last guarantee that we learn something about toDay's hunter attack.

OTOH, Autumn and cheekimonk are candidates based on reads. That's fine and well.

For toDay's lynch, it's a question of which philosophical approach to take--to lynch based on tone, or to force a little knowledge into our hand about an in-game event that we've spend the better part of the Day thinking about.

I'm leaning this way...

vote MartinD

That said, I've been misunderstanding things all day, so someone feel free to disabuse me of this vote if necessary.

You guys have me in a bind, I can't really move to Martin to self-save, because Martin will just move to me and it will be a wash.

I think it's a bit much to push me simply because I want us to talk about other things than the Vaimes hunting incident. I feel like everyone has experienced an instance like this where the village goes in circle over one thing that they don't have enough information yet to resolve.

I think we eventually find information with further lynches and deaths that sheds light on MartinD, etc. This is for instance why I always urge going with completely new candidates day two to maximize our eventual info. I think Cheeki is a good candidate for having pinged JAG. I think I find a lot of wolves react panicked when someone like JAG points at them.

Fair.

unvote Autumn
vote MartinD

Thanks for posting your reasoning Narc. I can't really answer Shoveler thinking I'm "extra shady" but I can address these.

I feel at this stage the new guys are fairly aware of a villager like JAG, and I don't think that makes me think it has to be a vet team--more so the case the opposite that a kill of a newer player would make me think it's a newbie team. I can definitely say I would never kill JAG day one these days because I've said so often in game that hes' my number one target, that doing so would be paining a target on my back. Take it with a grain of salt, I'm sure, but I would always wait a few days to kill him these days.

I still stand that your post pinged me--it's a typical wolf move to want to give a lot of analysis without actually pointing a finger at anyone. I definitely am being more open about posting my suspicion this game than I sometimes would be, but I'm trying to do it in a direct fashion, not the sort of hinting that I think wolves typically do.

I'm not trying to lay any groundwork, just worried that all we're talking about is those three, and if none of them are wolves we're just letting the wolves take a day off.

I will move to Martin for self-preservation, but don't want to move yet and give other voters only one option, especially when it's my second option.

I'm intrigued that you've held off on switching for this long, though for the time being I can accept your explanations for it at face value.

We have ~half of us around at the deadline from the looks of things, so I don't know how much shaking up there could really be.

I just got back whenever my more recent post was, and catching up. There was no point until cheeki switched, because Martin could just switch and put me back in the lead. And really I'd rather vote Cheeki, I'm not very sold on the Martin vote.

Looked like there were a bunch of outstanding votes. But maybe people aren't around today.

I wanted to give Autumn room to maneuver so she's not boxed in. I was in that position last game on D1...not a fan.

Trying to quickly catch up. What is the speed dating version of the case against Autumn?

Funny, smart, a born romantic.

I am ok with my vote on martin at this point. Worst case is we will know more about the action early today. Font is back after dawn to provide additional insight.

Is brit's vote tally correct, up to there?

Are we more interested in Martin or in Martin's duking (to Vaimes, I presume) as the result of this lynch?

Dola--because if it's the duking, I'm worried that he's not around.

Someone can check, but I believe the tally I just put up is correct (and it agreed with brit's tally at the time I passed his tally post).

vote - Autumn

Enough suspicion on him at this point to make me wary of him

He pushed the team to look other than font/vaimes/martin. Pushed about the jag/cheeki vote yesterday. I read him as pingy, shoveler thought there may be more to it.

Chief, you missed this one. :)

UNVOTE CHEEKIMONK
VOTE AUTUMN

Just trying to save my own skin here, but the argument on Martin is htat he used a medic power on someone without any ability to know their allegiance or faction. The argument on me is that I wanted to talk about other vote candidates today, and think JAG may have been killed for looking hard at Cheek. One seems stronger than the other.

I don't completely disagree with Autumn. If we made this a two horse race between someone that we had a question about yesterday and this mess today we could maybe learn a little more from today's lynch. But overall, making it a two (or three) horse race isn't a bad thing; more information is always good.

I worry about shenanigans, we don't know what happens with a tie.

But a cultist would presumably love the chaos.

unvote Autumn
Vote Martin

Brit's post makes sense. I don't see why villager-Martin protects someone.

If we lose Martin, and he is village, we lose our Medic as well, though he'd be a good target for a wolf NK.

He's already used his ability, it was a one-shot. Which is why it's wild to just use it willy nilly.

One time use, right?

Not relevant - the Medic power was a one-shot deal, and that one shot has been used.

Medic's a one-time use, though...

Are you duking???

Definitely Martin. If he dukes to Vaimes thats pretty damned shady in my opinion.

I think we're looking at the same situation and drawing opposite conclusions...

Uh.

Today was one of those 'I put off a ton of work and it finally caught up to me' days. So. If I'm duked, oh well. But if not, I will actually be able to focus on this game because the rest of the week is Not Busy.

Also fonti will be able to talk again and I guess I'm sorry if she's town.

Phew, gotta go do yard work, will check on the result in a few.

Unless Vaimes is a baddy.

I'm not a baddy. Just an irresponsible towny. ,_,

So a Hunter should shoot MartinD ASAP?

I am going to have words with Vaimes after this game about general idiocy, shooting someone without warning or a case, and ignoring blatant hunter claims.

You all are the bigger problem here. There is no way in hell Martin D is scum if I am town, and there was also almost no way Vaimes was scum. Every single person who tried to get them lynched while I couldn’t speak up to defend them instead of waiting a single Day to attack me is on my shooting list.

I am now going to try to confirm myself as town by shooting either scum or a hunter. Once that is determined, you people will never, ever lynch MartinD and will treat him as confirmed town.

Since there was no kill, we can assume that the bodyguard either got a protect in or the cultist was recruited. Since the bodyguard can protect themselves, I wouldn't mind seeing them claim and possible clear their target. I would, however, highly suggest waiting on claiming in case the seer has a guilty or several innocent checks and decides to claim toDay.

The question now is, was there a block or a conversion?

I'm actually betting block is more likely, as the cultist wants to be lynched or shot over the rest of the scumteam.

Right. I'm looking to shoot in this list toDay:
EagleFan
Autumn
Timmae
Shoveler
Grover

Any comments, suggestions or analysis on those people would be appreciated.

There was a block, as I was the intended target of the night kill.

You're informed of that?

Yes.

What we know:

Vaimes was good. Suspected with most of the possible scenarios ending up that way.

MartinD and font, both unknown still.

No kill last night, block or conversion. If the BG is told that a block was successful that would be good information to have so we can start a trusted list (though it wouldn't rule out cultist if the answer to the below question is yes, just that the person wasn't at least a member of the original wolves).

If conversion, we really have no idea (does a BG block also block a conversion?).


Why is Autumn high on font's list? She says to go after people looking to lynch Martin. She is speaking out of both sides of her mouth with this one.

I suspect Autumn's the one scum that decided to stay off the lynch.

Your reasons are bull and ultimately irrelevant. I am going to confirm myself or kill myself by shooting toDay. You want scum? Look elsewhere.

Barring counter reveals that would make MartinD good and with no knowledge of font's alignment. font is still an unknown.

With that said I think we have more information to use for the day one voting now.

Chief: Are people informed when they are shot and survive?

EF: If your goal is to convince me not to shoot you, you're doing a poor job of it.

You are a pieve of work, that is for sure.

Civility... look it up.

My goal may be to never play in a game that you are in again. Every game you have an attitude with people just because they dare to have a different opinion that you. It is getting old.

I got shot at, silenced, and then had to watch scum lead a lynch on confirmed town, who then duked it to my other confirmed town. Why would I possibly be irritated?

No one will get shot and not know it.

I don't try to make time for the game just to deal with that. If I want arrogant attitudes I will schedule more meetings at work...

Even if it is a quiet bullet?

Font, I agree that you'll find some scum among the Martin voters, but that's 8 of the 14 of us. The odds are incredibly low that there wouldn't be scum there!

Your list, meanwhile, mentions some of the 8 specifically. Have you explained your suspicions of them previously? If not, could you do that now?

Maybe I'll add one in for the next time, but this game here has no quiet bullets. ;)

At what point were Vaimes and I confirmed as town/village? (That is, before the Day 2 lynch.) There may be evidence pointing one way or the other, but nothing that I can see that would provide certainty.

I know what side I am on, and my posts/actions so far may give an indication to the other players, but there's nothing out there in the thread so far that definitively states that I'm on a particular side.

That is very surprising to me, that you would be informed of that. It's even unusual for the bodyguard to be informed, I don't know that I've ever heard of the victim being informed. I'm also not sure why the wolves would target you, or why the bodyguard would protect you. You were the lead vote getter and very well could have been dead by night fall.

Thank you.

I would highly recommend the bodyguard not claim in that case, unless they are under lynch pressure or Martin is lying.

Martin: Can you clarify that you were not protected by an item?

MartinD was probably shot for one of two reasons:
1. Scum thought he was some sort of power role. This could have come from confusion about his Medic claim.
2. Scum thought he would become confirmed town. This points to Autumn as potential scum.

EF: You are more than smart enough to realize that Martin D becomes confirmed town once I flip town. Why, then, did you contribute to a lynch on MartinD when you could have waited one Day and lynched me?

The conclusion I'm coming to is that scum wanted to lynch Martin, then me, then Vaimes, or Martin, then Vaimes, then me. The fact that only Autumn and Narc pointed this out is insane.

Piecing this all together in my mind yet... If font, vaimes and martin are all good that was one messed up play by vaimes that basically cost us a day.

Both of you are confirmed town with the knowledge that I am town.

There is no way Vaimes takes a shot as scum when I am blatantly hinting hunter, especially when he has a full scumteam to pick up on those hints and warn him against it. In addition, he was behaviorally town.

You, as scum, have no reason to have a medic save on me over one of your scummates, and are therefore town.

It could have been a decent thing, giving us two confirmed town, if anyone bothered to think it through and vote elsewhere.

No way the bodyguard should claim, whether they got a block or not. They can let us know later, it's too early in the game for that.

It's of course very possible that the cultist got hit, probably more likely than the bg picking the right target. But if the hit wasn't really on Martin I can't imagine why he would pretend it was, that would give us a confirmed wolf if he was lying. However, I also find it hard to believe the wolves put in a kill on the lead vote getter. I suppose it might have been a conditional, but what would they have to gain from flipping Martin villager?

Very sorry guys, got super busy at work and it was completely unexpected. It looks like I'm still alive so I'll catch up as soon as I can

I understand your frustration Font, but you're coming across as very disparaging of basically everybody else playing this game.

I get what you are saying now.. pieced together with his martyr claim last game it is 2 crazy ass plays but they both make sense in that light.

The message that I received strongly implied that it was a bodyguard block, not item-based protection. I do not hold any items.


The most obvious reason for me being targeted (in my mind) is that the wolves thought that I was the cultist, and wanted to convert me. (If that was the thinking, they were wrong - I'm now a basic vanilla villager, having used my Medic and Duke one-off powers.)

Ok I hate to point this out the obvious, but font asked chief about being shot, which to me implies when a hunter shoots them. She did not ask about whether they are informed of a night kill attempt.

Maybe they are one in the same, but I'm concerned that they are not.

Agreed, on all counts.

I can't imagine that any wolves actually thought you were the cultist when you had a medic save on a villager instead of them.

Ok, the Bodyguard should counterclaim if they did not protect Martin last Night. Otherwise, we can assume he was the shot and is doubly confirmed.

Checking back on the ruleset - there's no way that I can be the cultist, as I have used the Duke power. From Post 3:

(my emphasis)

If you read you will see that I wanted to try to get a vote that meant something. I certainly didn't want an all Martin vote. Information is what I wanted. If you and Martin are wolves and we looked elsewhere it means we are now two days worth of potential bad lynches and night kills behind and would still be in the same position as before today's lynch. Having 3 completely unknowns.

If I am a wolf, Martin is definitely not the target. Keep the confusion between the two of you still out there.


We have the following possibilities:

1) MartinD is not the bodyguard and was targeted and protected and told that he was.
2) MartinD is the bodyguard and was targeted and protected and told that he blocked the attack.
3) MartinD is a wolf and is trying to out the real bodyguard (maybe because they were blocked last night).


Of the three of you, finding out either MartinD or you were the best options (as Vaimes comes up good in more of the scenarios that I looked through that made sense).

If MartinD is a wolf, we can be near certain that you are. If MartinD is the cultist, we can be near certain that you are. If MartinD is a villager, we are still unknown about you.

If we wait and find out your alliance:
If you are a wolf, we are unknown about MartinD, could be a bad luck village play.
If you are a villager, we know that MartinD is a villager (or close to certain).
If you are a cultist, we are unknown about MartinD.


So: 2 of the 3 MartinD results give us a certain outcome. Only 1 of the 3 results for you give us a certain outcome.

Okay, I have to get back to work. Will check back in later.

That reasoning, of course, relies on a fact that only you know (if you're town/village or scum/wolf). Take that away, and there are another couple of potential scenarios - either we're both wolves (so I have an obvious incentive to target you for potential Medic attention), or I (as a villager) have managed to pick a wolf at random when deciding where to Medic-target.

TL;DR version - no matter how definite you sound about being a villager, I think that it's possible that you could be a wolf.

Maybe later, after I eat, I'll have the blood sugar to figure this out, but right now I am completely baffled as to why the wolves would target Martin. As pointed out, once he duked he couldn't possibly be the Cultist. The only scenario that makes any sense there is if they also had a duke order in, so that if he wasn't a real duke, they would have saved him, then converted him. All of that only makes sense if Font was a wolf.

So if they didn't think he was Cultist, why would they kill him? They figured he would Duke, or survive in some other way. Did they think his duke would somehow clear him? If so, why not wait and see and then kill him later? It doesn't make sense, unless they thought he was a special, but I'm not sure what would make them think that.

So far I think the best option offered is that they misunderstood the Medic role, thinking it was basically a bodyguard.

For one, if I'm a cultist, you know MartinD is town, as he would probably think I'm a villager.

Your strategy is to lynch Martin, have him flip town and learn nothing, then lynch me, and have me flip town and learn nothing.

The smart strategy is to find out that I am town (whether through a lynch, a check, or my own actions), and then use that to clear Vaimes and Martin, giving us a solid, non-pr townblock.