Ready to get this party started?

I am the seer. Last night I scanned J23 and he is a wolf!

I am not going to say my night 1 scan as with the BG still out there I get one more, and no need to put a target on someones back to be killed while I am protected.

Playinf floorball, will reply to anything.I need to when I get home

I'm predicting less a party and more a slow day.

Or trying to make Jackal look bad

That seems like quite a bank shot. If I'm the wolves I'm either trying to take out a roled player. I could see a group of wolves who decide to take out a critic instead. I don't see, on Day 2 with no N1 kill, them trying to execute this second level sort of play.

Dont see why Danny would lie, but why come out already?

This is a fairly small game. We get 1 confirmed wolf, plus any other scans as long as he lives. 1:1 trade in a game with 3 likely wolves is a good deal, especially coming on D3.

Danny who have you other scans been?

Interesting. I see no reason not to believe the reveal without a counter.

VOTE J23

You're welcome to scan me if you think I'm a good candidate for a wolf (if you didn't already). It's possible they took out mckerney to make me look bad, I certainly wouldn't suggest that play to my team if I was a wolf. Obviously I was barking up the wrong tree with DV, but really there's been little to go on the first couple of days. With this reveal there's a bit more to examine. Now I'm going to sleep!

STAY AWAY FROM MY DAUGHTERS

Just got off plane but obviously

Vote J23

He said earlier he didnt want to say so they wouldn't become a target

This, and with the bodyguard out there and no brutal wolf, I am guaranteed another scan.

And honestly, as often as I am a night 1 or 2 kill, I am living on borrowed time as it is ;). FWIW, I have intentionally played a little out there in hopes I would not be night killed.

Yes, If I reveal my night 1 scan, they will be night killed tonight while I am protected. If I wait until after my day 3 scan, I can then reveal my night 3 scan and either nab another wolf or potentially clear two people if both are still alive so that we go into day 4 7-2 with 3 potential cleared players (including myself)

Hmmm we also might have the martyr, potentially giving me two or three more scans. I would say the BG protect me tonight and then on night 4, the martyr use his ability on me. If that works, the and still alive, the BG could protect me again night 5.

Oh and

Vote J23

Way to go, Danny!

VOTE J23

Should we consider a nightfall vote?

no brainer

vote j23

Excellent.

Vote J23
Vote Nightfall (assuming it's allowed)

vote j23

interesting. yeah, it definitely seems like danny could live 3 days in a row yet, which is obviously awesome.

Vote J23
Vote Nightfall

I won't be around until after work today.

I looked back through mckerney's posts to see if there was any other indication why he might've been a target, the only thing I can think of is this sequence:



I guess we'll know more tonight.

Danny, why did you scan J23?

He was playing exactly like he did three games ago when we were wolves together. Under the rader, quiet, quasi-absent with early votes that stuck.

And he had the second vote on DV.

Obviously up to Autumn and the wolves, but I wouldn't be opposed to running a quick day/ nigh phase and then having a shorter D3 end at the usual deadline today

hmmm, I am going with Occams Razor hear and assuming you are most likely the seer, but the fact you have found a way to stay alive so late into the game worries me.

If danny isn't the seer I think the real seer would need to time that reveal carefully, before it could be to late.

dola- I think N1 the wolves probably went for a random kill in McKerney, someone they thought wouldn't be blocked. I am guessing the BG thought the wolves would do something like that and got very lucky.

vote nightfall

I like the quick flip and run another day idea if enough people are on board

I was wondering if the BG protected Danny (or CR or maybe you) N1, knowing he is frequently an early wolf target as a villager, then the wolves went after mckerney, thinking he had revealed that he protected someone other than himself. I think that's more likely than the BG randomly protecting mckerney N1 and getting insanely lucky. If that's the case, it's possible the BG can somewhat clear another person for us (unless the wolves just forgot to submit a NK order).

What if Danny is the traitor and scanned J23 as the seer?

Unvote Nightfall

Haven't unvoted J23 yet because I'd like some other people's thoughts on it.

Or here's another thought. Perhaps the wolves went after the Woodsman N1 and got some flavor text like, "You try to kill X but he is able to fight off your attack." Then they know who the Woodsman is to kill off later and they can try to locate other roled players in the meantime.

I was thinking about that as a possibility also (which is why I wanted more info from Danny), but I didn't want to say anything until we had heard from J23. At this point I'm not inclined to believe that however.

What would you guys do if you were a seer (I'm not don't worry). If I was Danny and I was the seer I would probably wait a bit longer to reveal. I'd probably start to put a vote on j23 if he scanned wolf and see if people follow without having to reveal. If the vote isn't falling his way then pull out the reveal card to make sure wolf goes home.

However, I will give him the benefit of the doubt right now as we only have d1 and d2 votes to go off which at face value isn't much.

It'd be a brilliant move by the traitor to rid of the seer. If j23 is says he's the seer what the hell is going to happen? I can't imagine I'd be switching anyway but its something to think about big time.

I think either this happened, or a case where the BG protected their target and they got a similar message, something like "someone prevents your attack upon so and so".

I didn't even realize before that the traitor could scan for the seer. A nightfall vote in this case won't work, especially before J gets a chance to speak. Favor still sits with Danny, but if he is the traitor and this buys the wolves another day of no wolf kills, we're getting pretty close to losing.

Danny's reveal did strike me as a bit quick. Finding one wolf in a three wolf game isn't usually surefire motivation, though Danny is often a NK target so I can understand he might not want to die without revealing. However, Danny is smart enough to be able to place a vote without revealing and give us enough to trace back and see he was pretty sure about that person if he ended up being NKed and revealed as the seer. I'm still likely to believe Danny's story, but I'm skeptical.

In a presumed three wolf game, that is. I expect 3 wolves+cultist would be a fair mesh with the villager roles present.

I'm thinking of a course of action where we place J aside, at least for one day. We know he's not the only wolf, if he is one. And if Danny is the cultist, lynching him doesn't solve our problems. So we wait to hear what J has to say, and take a look at everyone else. However, without knowing for certain if Danny is telling the truth, it's hard to analyze the voting..

This would be a smart play if I a was the cultist who scanned seer. However, keep in mind that there is a mich greater chance to scan 1 of 3 wolves than 1 of 1 seer. Further, J23's play has not been indicative of a possible seer, I doubt I would have scanned him looking for the seer. In fact looking at night 1 and 2, I don't even think he was on between day and night deadline to let the lynch result guide his scan. He would have been if he was the seer I would think.

Wow, so.I should have voted J23 and then left the village to guess if I actually scanned him after being night killed?

Revealing was the 100 percent right thing to do. Especially with the BG and maybe even the martyr out there.

Is it possible I am the cultist who scanned seer? Sure, but its much more likely I am the seer. Any play to delay lynching J23 is a bad, low percentage play.

Oh and I HATE it when a seer goes to the grave having a known wolf. Getting the first wolf helps significantly in finding the other ones, then everyone tries to interpret their posts and usually ends up wrong.

I agree with this, plus I think your play has been villager-like, albeit somewhat provocative, though with how often you're NK'ed early that was obviously a smart move. And then we don't know for a certainty that the traitor is in the game at all and I rate it as highly unlikely this is something other than as Danny is saying.

I'm not sure I follow. We don't lynch either of them for today and get what out of it?