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-   -   COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778) (http://forums.operationsports.com/fofc//showthread.php?t=96561)

AlexB 12-09-2020 11:41 AM

People here with severe allergies have officially been advised not to take the Pfizer vaccine after two NHS workers suffered reactions in the first day of vaccination... It doesn’t help convince the sceptics who think the whole process has been rushed through

Edward64 12-09-2020 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AlexB (Post 3317436)
People here with severe allergies have officially been advised not to take the Pfizer vaccine after two NHS workers suffered reactions in the first day of vaccination... It doesn’t help convince the sceptics who think the whole process has been rushed through


I think the vaccine Pharma executives, board members etc. and their families should take it first.

The cynical me says this was discussed already and for one reason or another, was not done.

I know there will always be a certain % with adverse reaction, and I believe the risks to be acceptable (considering the alternative). Nevertheless, it would be a good show of confidence to general public.

sterlingice 12-09-2020 12:14 PM

Wouldn't people just view it as the Russian vaccine that Putin gave his daughter(?) where we all just assume it was for show and probably not even a real shot?

SI

Edward64 12-09-2020 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sterlingice (Post 3317438)
Wouldn't people just view it as the Russian vaccine that Putin gave his daughter(?) where we all just assume it was for show and probably not even a real shot?

SI


I would assume the western reporters will do their due diligence and make sure it wasn't a fraud injection.

molson 12-09-2020 12:42 PM

My boss is in the hospital with COIVD and I have been drafted into some pretty intense stuff that I am figuring out on the fly. I feel like that guy who played QB for the Broncos a few weeks ago. I spend my short breaks dreaming about my next vacation - even if that's just me at home for a few weeks.

Kodos 12-09-2020 12:48 PM

Get better soon, MrBug.

Brian Swartz 12-09-2020 02:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64
Interesting tool to see how overwhelmed your hospital is.


Thanks for the link. No data for three of the four hospitals in the rural country I live in. The one that does report, 72% and 42%. It wouldn't take many patients to tip that either way.

rjolley 12-09-2020 02:31 PM

One of ours is 100% and 27%. The other is 83% and 14%.

miked 12-09-2020 02:40 PM

Emory is doing pretty well because the highest cases are out in the country.

CrimsonFox 12-10-2020 01:56 AM


Thomkal 12-10-2020 09:07 AM

heh

NobodyHere 12-10-2020 10:05 AM

spoilered for some nsfw language

Spoiler

Thomkal 12-10-2020 10:33 AM

heh again

Edward64 12-10-2020 10:35 AM

I'm still trying to rationalize the tremendous spike. Someone help me understand.

On the worldometers site, it show the start of 7-day moving avg increases beginning in mid-Oct. With incubation period of let's say 14 days, what happened in mid Sept, early Oct that cause this?

The flip answer is many people got weary and got careless etc. but looking for something more tangible.

Was it the GOP mask-less political campaigning? Might explain TX but doesn't explain CA or NY

Air travel did seem to tick up in late Sept, early Oct according to • COVID-19 impact on TSA checkpoint numbers | Statista. So I guess that might be a factor

Was it that workers returning to office? I couldn't find any stats but don't remember reading any articles on that. I think most companies are still have workers do remote as preferred choice.

Was it the opening up of restaurants and other small businesses? Maybe

So what happened in mid Sept to early Oct, that didn't occur over the summer, to start this?

GrantDawg 12-10-2020 10:41 AM

Schools?

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sterlingice 12-10-2020 11:54 AM

Usually takes 6-8ish weeks for a little bit of noise to equal a major spike so, I think some combination of schools and pandemic fatigue

SI

sterlingice 12-10-2020 11:58 AM

I think all the data about "well, little kids don't spread COVID like we thought" is going to be found to be false or at least partially false. It's pretty hard to show where exactly you got a communicable disease when it's endemic in the population (also a good reason to doubt all the airline studies that are like "no one is reporting they got sick on the plane" because not only were they on a plane but a new city, a hotel, etc - so it would be impossible to pinpoint exactly where you got infected). And I think it's going to fit into the category of "duh, of course schools were a major vector for transmission (especially those who threw their hands up in the air and said 'kids can't wear masks so don't even try to enforce it'").

SI

PilotMan 12-10-2020 12:23 PM

It's even more simple than schools. It's colder weather. We saw the growth hit Europe, who starts colder weather before the states, we knew the case growth was coming, and it did. It's not terribly surprising.

GrantDawg 12-10-2020 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PilotMan (Post 3317579)
It's even more simple than schools. It's colder weather. We saw the growth hit Europe, who starts colder weather before the states, we knew the case growth was coming, and it did. It's not terribly surprising.

How you feeling, PM? Think about you all the time.

PilotMan 12-10-2020 04:20 PM

Thanks, I have mostly recovered. All my symptoms have lessened and today was the first day that my boys and I got outside for a couple hours and played some disc golf. I'm legal to go out again. Only my wife is still under quarantine in the house. She's the last one to get better, and it's mostly making her exceptionally tired.

My middle son tested negative, so I wonder if that means that he was the one who brought it in when he came back from college. He had been exposed, but he never had a single symptom. He came back on a Thursday, and my Monday my oldest had gotten it. It's either that or the oldest from work.

We are very thankful that we have managed to avoid the worst of the cases. The recovery isn't fast though. Even yesterday I still didn't feel right. We all are way more fatigued than normal and shaking the cough has been hard.

ISiddiqui 12-10-2020 04:21 PM

Glad y'all are getting better. Hope the recovery continues smoothly!

GrantDawg 12-10-2020 04:24 PM

I am so glad. Great to hear.

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Thomkal 12-10-2020 04:24 PM

Yay PM and family!

MrBug708 12-10-2020 05:09 PM

Count me as one of the COVID patients. I think I started a post here before I didn't finish it, but it's been a crazy ride. Got back from out of town during Thanksgiving. Work up Tuesday, the 1st with a fever. Went in and got tested. Results back last Thursday as COVID positive. Wife tested positive and has been asymptomatic ever since. First five days, had fever, chills, aches, fatigue, slight loss of smell, slight cough, diarrhea, pretty much everything but loss of smell and breathing issues. Fast forward to Tuesday and I was monitoring my oxygen levels and they were hovering around 90, so I went down to urgent care and had a pretty bad coughing fit. They sent me to the ER where I waited for about three hours before I received a room. They gave me oxygen and admitted me about 930 on Tuesday. Wife is freaked out at this point because the stories about going to the hospital and never coming back weighed on her mind. Oxygen helped, had a rough night being monitored but most of my sytems were going away other than breathing. Went to get up and go to the bathroom and nearly passed out there due to shortness of breath. Really scariest moment of my life. Discharged last night, but going to have to be on oxygen for 2-3 weeks hile my breathing stabilizes. Definitely not out of the woods, but it does feel like I'm in the back half of recovery. Getting hospitalized for this is something that I never imagined happening, but it happened anyways.

MrBug708 12-10-2020 05:11 PM

Looks like I did post, Oops! Hopefully this is a little more insight into what I went through!

Edit - Pilotman did and others saw my facebook! Glad you guys were watching out for me!

JPhillips 12-10-2020 05:40 PM

Good to see you Bug.

Lathum 12-10-2020 06:09 PM

Good to see you got the help you needed Bug, lets hope for a speedy recovery

Edward64 12-10-2020 06:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrBug708 (Post 3317635)
Count me as one of the COVID patients. I think I started a post here before I didn't finish it, but it's been a crazy ride. Got back from out of town during Thanksgiving. Work up Tuesday, the 1st with a fever. Went in and got tested. Results back last Thursday as COVID positive. Wife tested positive and has been asymptomatic ever since. First five days, had fever, chills, aches, fatigue, slight loss of smell, slight cough, diarrhea, pretty much everything but loss of smell and breathing issues. Fast forward to Tuesday and I was monitoring my oxygen levels and they were hovering around 90, so I went down to urgent care and had a pretty bad coughing fit. They sent me to the ER where I waited for about three hours before I received a room. They gave me oxygen and admitted me about 930 on Tuesday. Wife is freaked out at this point because the stories about going to the hospital and never coming back weighed on her mind. Oxygen helped, had a rough night being monitored but most of my sytems were going away other than breathing. Went to get up and go to the bathroom and nearly passed out there due to shortness of breath. Really scariest moment of my life. Discharged last night, but going to have to be on oxygen for 2-3 weeks hile my breathing stabilizes. Definitely not out of the woods, but it does feel like I'm in the back half of recovery. Getting hospitalized for this is something that I never imagined happening, but it happened anyways.


Good you are doing better.

Question - did they give you any of the fancy therapeutics or just oxygen and monitored you?

Vince, Pt. II 12-10-2020 06:15 PM

Great to see you back around these parts buddy!

Kodos 12-10-2020 06:30 PM

FOFC has our rally caps on. Glad to see things turning around for our posters and their families.

My wife's father just got diagnosed yesterday. They live in Kansas, and his wife won't wear a mask. Had a big Thanksgiving get-together with about 30 people, including two who were known to have coronavirus. Smart plan. Needless to say, my wife is pissed at her stepmother.

MrBug708 12-10-2020 08:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3317643)
Good you are doing better.

Question - did they give you any of the fancy therapeutics or just oxygen and monitored you?


Just oxygen from the tank. Took one home and have oxygen at the house as well.

Vince, Pt. II 12-10-2020 08:10 PM

My dad had a co-worker (and good friend) who was out with "the flu." He didn't want to get tested, but finally decided to earlier this week. The friend was feeling better, so he was back at work today, where he and my dad work closely together. Probably not always wearing masks, just because they both hate them.

This afternoon his (the co-worker's) test came back positive.

I have no words right now for the idiocy involved here.

Vince, Pt. II 12-10-2020 08:12 PM

Dola - this is the same work environment where a DIFFERENT co-worker already tested positive and had already had close contact with several of their employees, leading my dad to be COVID tested yesterday.

RainMaker 12-10-2020 08:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrBug708 (Post 3317662)
Just oxygen from the tank. Took one home and have oxygen at the house as well.


You didn't get the special antibody treatment? Weird!

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/09/u...reatments.html

RainMaker 12-10-2020 08:28 PM

Also glad you are doing better. Just not knowing where things are headed has to be terrifying.

tarcone 12-10-2020 09:08 PM

So I worked the clock st s freshman basketball game tonight. The visiting coacj wore his mask around his nose and our AD did not cover his nose. We are a mask must be worn district, but admin isnt. So much craziness.

Icy 12-11-2020 05:02 AM

We are much better in Spain and seems the second wave is going down... but now we have the Christmas. Everybody will visit and have dinners with family despite the rules, because hey, we are latins, we love party and family and freedom and rules are for the others, not for me! We will relax measures, etc and January the third and hope the last big wave will hit us harder than the second, as it happened with the second after a relaxed summer.

Pure darwinism I'd say, I have lost the faith in governments and people.

GrantDawg 12-11-2020 05:28 AM

Good to hear you are doing better, Bug. I know when my b-i-l went into the hospital, it terrified us. Glad you are battling it out.

BYU 14 12-11-2020 01:16 PM

Of course this happens in Yuma, home of Batshit crazy GOP chairwoman Dr. Kelli Ward.

'A slap in the face': Arizona ER doctor fired after talking about severity of COVID-19 pandemic

PilotMan 12-11-2020 06:28 PM

Youngest, who successfully came off his epilepsy medication this year (after 3 years seizure free), who got his driver's license, who is dual enrolled in college for his Senior year, who has overcome Covid, now looks like he's got some post-covid syndrome symptoms. He's been quite tired, but can't sleep more than a couple hours, chest pains, dizzy spells, foggy mind. Poor kid has been through a lot. He's carrying a lot of anxiety, wants a clear answer as to what is going on, he's scared. His pediatrician cancelled an appointment today because he didn't think there was much they could do to help and said we should go to the ER. He's not in ER level distress, and we explained to our son that they are only going to treat his symptoms, which we can do, and that they don't know enough to be able to 'fix' it. It's a difficult situation.

GrantDawg 12-11-2020 07:20 PM

My daughter is having a rapid test tonight. Two people in her office tested positive, and now she can't taste or smell anything.

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whomario 12-11-2020 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PilotMan (Post 3317774)
Youngest, who successfully came off his epilepsy medication this year (after 3 years seizure free), who got his driver's license, who is dual enrolled in college for his Senior year, who has overcome Covid, now looks like he's got some post-covid syndrome symptoms. He's been quite tired, but can't sleep more than a couple hours, chest pains, dizzy spells, foggy mind. Poor kid has been through a lot. He's carrying a lot of anxiety, wants a clear answer as to what is going on, he's scared. His pediatrician cancelled an appointment today because he didn't think there was much they could do to help and said we should go to the ER. He's not in ER level distress, and we explained to our son that they are only going to treat his symptoms, which we can do, and that they don't know enough to be able to 'fix' it. It's a difficult situation.


There's definitely more that the right Department/Specialist can do. Covid19 is especially pesky, but longterm issues and need for 'rehabilitation' isn't unique to it but an issue with many viral infections including the flu. And there is definitely stuff that ought to be checked out. Which is not meant to alarm, but there's often more to it than outward symptoms.
I find it pretty shocking the doctor's bestest and onliest idea was the ER and not even doing some basic diagnosis. That being said: People at the ER might know where to turn within the hospital system. I doubt very much you'd be the first they find asking that question.

Hope it works out well and fast and he gets well soon.

Edward64 12-11-2020 07:56 PM

Sorry to hear of everyone's challenges right now.

My best wishes to everyone and hope you guys & family get over this.

GrantDawg 12-11-2020 08:01 PM

Crap. She tested positive. She has been home the last few days since her birthday was last weekend. This is not good.

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JPhillips 12-11-2020 08:04 PM

God bless, Grant. Best wishes to her.

Lathum 12-11-2020 08:15 PM

Best of luck to her and your family.

Edward64 12-11-2020 09:28 PM

Not sure if this was reported in MSM earlier re: Feb conference but I didn't know about it. Also pretty cool (and scary) how they are able to essentially do contact tracing with the "genetic fingerprinting".

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/11/healt...nce/index.html
Quote:

A biotech conference in Boston last February that's already been flagged as a Covid-19 superspreading event led to at least 245,000 other cases across the US and Europe, a new genetic fingerprinting study shows.

One single case seems to have been responsible for many of the other eventual cases, the team at the Broad Institute in Massachusetts reported.
Their study finds two particular genetic fingerprints of viruses associated with the conference and then tracks those lineages across the US. One "was exported from Boston to at least 18 US states as well as to other countries, including Australia, Sweden, and Slovakia," the team, led by Bronwyn MacInnis, director of pathogen genomic surveillance at the Broad Institute, wrote in the journal Science.
:
:
It's hard to document a superspreading event. Researchers must show that people were infected and in contact with one another. When tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of people are involved, it's almost impossible.

But genetic fingerprinting makes it possible. The Broad team used databases of the virus to track these individual changes, known as single nucleotide polymorphisms or SNPs (pronounced "snips).

PilotMan 12-12-2020 09:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PilotMan (Post 3317774)
Youngest, who successfully came off his epilepsy medication this year (after 3 years seizure free), who got his driver's license, who is dual enrolled in college for his Senior year, who has overcome Covid, now looks like he's got some post-covid syndrome symptoms. He's been quite tired, but can't sleep more than a couple hours, chest pains, dizzy spells, foggy mind. Poor kid has been through a lot. He's carrying a lot of anxiety, wants a clear answer as to what is going on, he's scared. His pediatrician cancelled an appointment today because he didn't think there was much they could do to help and said we should go to the ER. He's not in ER level distress, and we explained to our son that they are only going to treat his symptoms, which we can do, and that they don't know enough to be able to 'fix' it. It's a difficult situation.


I spent a good part of the day in the ER today. The boy woke up with vision issues and he really started escalating from there. We knew that his major symptoms were stuff we could manage, but he's also 17, and he needs to have some faith that we do know what we're doing. However, it was just one thing too much, and it was hard to argue against him. He ended up getting an IV with some pain meds for headaches, and an upper GI cocktail to control some of his stomach pain. All his tests and xrays came back normal, and he got to talk with the doctor for a while. He was reassured that he was ok, that he will be ok, that he won't be in danger at this point from the Covid, that the medication that we are giving him will be the best for him, and he left feeling much better about everything. The vision issues were stemming from a migraine style headache, that he's never had before. The rest is still just post-covid symptoms that they felt would take another couple weeks to resolve.

As a dad, this was a very hard choice. His mom and I could have argued that we know best, and that we are doing what we know is best for him, but at his age, it's hard to argue that he can't have a say in what is best for him. The bill is going to suck, but we have pretty good insurance, and are fortunate to have a little money to cover it. I think though, that we earned some teenager respect (which we aren't short on) and he got the information helped relieve his anxiety.

Edward64 12-13-2020 07:05 AM

Another interesting website. Essentially tracking vaccine pre-purchases by country and the discrepancies between the haves and have nots.

COVID-19 | Launch and Scale Speedometer
Quote:

9.6 BILLION DOSES ARE ALREADY RESERVED, EVEN BEFORE ANY CANDIDATES ARE ON THE MARKET

Despite this public commitment to equity, individual countries are incentivized to purchase as many vaccine doses (and from as wide a pool of candidates) as possible in order to increase their chances of covering their population. Before any vaccine candidates are even approved for market, confirmed purchases cover 7.2 billion doses, with another 2.4 billion doses currently under negotiation or reserved as optional expansions of existing deals.


I see Indonesia and Brazil. I think they are participating in China's trials so this chart does include that vaccine(s).

It also shows the US with approx $1B in confirmed vaccine doses purchases. With a population of 330M x 2 doses max = 660M, this seems like overkill especially when also including "potential dose purchases" for a total of 2.6B does. My guess is US was hedging across the top 2-3 drugs (at least) and hence the overbought no. In a situation like this, no one will complain much about wasting money.

I am surprised that SA, Qatar, Kuwait are seemingly left out? You would think the richer countries could get access to the vaccines early.

GrantDawg 12-13-2020 08:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PilotMan (Post 3317922)
I spent a good part of the day in the ER today. The boy woke up with vision issues and he really started escalating from there. We knew that his major symptoms were stuff we could manage, but he's also 17, and he needs to have some faith that we do know what we're doing. However, it was just one thing too much, and it was hard to argue against him. He ended up getting an IV with some pain meds for headaches, and an upper GI cocktail to control some of his stomach pain. All his tests and xrays came back normal, and he got to talk with the doctor for a while. He was reassured that he was ok, that he will be ok, that he won't be in danger at this point from the Covid, that the medication that we are giving him will be the best for him, and he left feeling much better about everything. The vision issues were stemming from a migraine style headache, that he's never had before. The rest is still just post-covid symptoms that they felt would take another couple weeks to resolve.

As a dad, this was a very hard choice. His mom and I could have argued that we know best, and that we are doing what we know is best for him, but at his age, it's hard to argue that he can't have a say in what is best for him. The bill is going to suck, but we have pretty good insurance, and are fortunate to have a little money to cover it. I think though, that we earned some teenager respect (which we aren't short on) and he got the information helped relieve his anxiety.

You did the right thing, and I am glad it was no more than that. It is a scary disease, and sometimes the mental part of it is as hard as the physical.
My daughter is having headaches/body-aches and general nausea. Her breathing is rough, but so far not unlike what she normal deals with a winter cough (she is asthmatic, so any chest congestion is usually bad). She never leaves her room without a mask, and her mom has been bringing her food.
Neither of our work is going to let us quarantine. We are disposable, er I mean, essential workers. My wife's doctor/boss called her last night and said she should stay home, then at 10 O'clock last night asked her to come in this afternoon to set her area up for the week, then take a rapid test. If it is negative, she is supposed to work. So, instead she actually having my wife work more, and come expose others even though if she tests negative today she could be positive any time next week.
I work mostly outside, so I am not as likely to expose co-workers or customers. I will just do drive through and curb side for lunches. I have 4 big co-morbities, so that is the biggest worry. Our house is too small to be isolated. There is next to no chance that if my wife gets it, that I will not get it.

PilotMan 12-13-2020 11:38 AM

I feel for you Grant. I mean, her boss shouldn't be asking that. They should be keeping her home until she's either negative and your daughter isn't contagious anymore. We didn't try to change anything in our home, and it was pretty clear that everyone was going to be sick. By the time it even looked like it might be Covid, everyone had been exposed and was feeling something. I hope that she comes through it without feeling too awful.

My wife is 2 weeks past her initial symptoms and is still exhausted. She's up for a bit, back to bed, all day long, still dealing with sore throat and congestion.

sterlingice 12-13-2020 12:24 PM

This is why a liability shield for COVID is awful. These exact stupid situations.

We all know what the right thing to do is, but we're not allowed to do them.

SI

Edward64 12-13-2020 08:49 PM

Looks like 2Q for the regular folks.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/13/healt...ssy/index.html
Quote:

Operation Warp Speed chief adviser Moncef Slaoui has projected Pfizer and Moderna together can make and deliver 60 million to 70 million vaccines in January, and hopes two other vaccines makers, AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson, will join the mix of authorized vaccines in the coming months.

"We can immunize 20 million in December, 30 million in January, 50 million in February," Slaoui said at the White House Tuesday. But he doesn't project having vaccinated the full population until June.
My wife would fall under 1b. I guess me and the kids would fall in group 2.

Quote:

ACIP member Dr. Robert Atmar, a professor of infectious diseases at Baylor College of Medicine, said ACIP will likely put essential workers into group 1b. "That would include teachers, people in law enforcement, firefighters and a variety of other groups, and then 1c would be persons with underlying conditions who had higher risk of developing complications or dying should they get Covid-19 and that would include persons over the age of 65," he said.

PilotMan 12-13-2020 09:29 PM

They'll be lucky if it's not closer to September before they have enough vaccinated.

JPhillips 12-13-2020 09:35 PM

Given the timeline for the two injections, vaccinating the WH staff first is pretty much bullshit.

whomario 12-14-2020 07:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3318042)
Given the timeline for the two injections, vaccinating the WH staff first is pretty much bullshit.


There's people in the WH that didn't already get infected ? ;)

Ksyrup 12-14-2020 08:16 AM

On that point, are people who already got it going to get the vaccine? Eventually, you can get it again from what I understand. So by June I expect that even Covid positives from 2020 would need to get the vaccine, right?

Galaril 12-14-2020 08:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PilotMan (Post 3318040)
They'll be lucky if it's not closer to September before they have enough vaccinated.


Yeah I don’t believe anything out this administration. Azar on TV this morning saying by end of March regular folks can walk into a Walgreens or CVS and get the vaccine like the flu vaccine. Sorry but does anyone believe that based on this administrations track record? I would say yeah that might happen March 2022. I am hoping my wife a public school teacher and my 90 year old mother can get the vaccine by August. As for me and my five teen age kids by Thanksgiving 2021. We should have reasonable expectations.

AlexB 12-14-2020 11:33 AM

Not good news... 1000 cases of a new variant of the virus here

Trying to link to the BBC story, but been having problems posting links for a while without taking up the whole screen...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55308211

sterlingice 12-14-2020 12:44 PM

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/14/healt...ess/index.html

Hey, remember for a few minutes in the summer when there were a handful of studies that were like "family transmission isn't terribly high" "or surprisingly rare" or whatever? Unsurprisingly, when we look closer at it, that is not the case and, frankly, never it really intuitively made sense.

In my mind, we generally don't quite understand the "how" of the virus but we understand the "what". It's a black box - we understand the outputs and inputs but we don't understand the exact mechanism. Viral load seems to matter a huge deal so duration and density of exposure are the major factors. Being older and/or with comorbidities exacerbate the illness significantly... but that's true of most illnesses. However, it's unlike the flu in that the old and the young are particularly vulnerable - more the old.

Remember how, at first, kids were not going to die. And then they did.

The airline industry keeps touting a study or two about how it's really safe to fly right now. Only, all that I've seen have been funded by industry groups and, again, it doesn't intuitively make sense with what was know about the disease.

Opening schools is really safe? C'mon, we know better. Any parents with kids will tell you how kids catch every illness under the sun and spread them around at school. There's no reason to think COVID would be any different. And, again, anyone with kids knows how well different age groups of kids will follow different sets of instructions like wearing masks and keeping socially distant.

That's not to say there aren't/won't be odd little quirks to the illness. But I've just been really skeptical of every time a study comes out that says it behaves significantly different than we think it should. We're past the point where we should be acting like we don't understand many of the major facets of this illness.

SI

PilotMan 12-14-2020 03:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PilotMan (Post 3317922)
I spent a good part of the day in the ER today. The boy woke up with vision issues and he really started escalating from there. We knew that his major symptoms were stuff we could manage, but he's also 17, and he needs to have some faith that we do know what we're doing. However, it was just one thing too much, and it was hard to argue against him. He ended up getting an IV with some pain meds for headaches, and an upper GI cocktail to control some of his stomach pain. All his tests and xrays came back normal, and he got to talk with the doctor for a while. He was reassured that he was ok, that he will be ok, that he won't be in danger at this point from the Covid, that the medication that we are giving him will be the best for him, and he left feeling much better about everything. The vision issues were stemming from a migraine style headache, that he's never had before. The rest is still just post-covid symptoms that they felt would take another couple weeks to resolve.

As a dad, this was a very hard choice. His mom and I could have argued that we know best, and that we are doing what we know is best for him, but at his age, it's hard to argue that he can't have a say in what is best for him. The bill is going to suck, but we have pretty good insurance, and are fortunate to have a little money to cover it. I think though, that we earned some teenager respect (which we aren't short on) and he got the information helped relieve his anxiety.


Back to the Doctor today with testicular pain that started late Saturday. There's no way that this is related to Covid, right? Good news is that it's not torsion. I was fully prepared to spend the rest of the day back at the hospital, but it wasn't that. It is indeed related, and can last for 3 months. He is really frustrated with all this. Next up is an ultrasound on his balls to make sure that he's got good flow. His doctor expects it to be fine, but needs to be totally sure. He said that my son is the 3rd case of this he's seen, but nobody else in his Dr group has had one. Typically it's with the worst cases, but my son seems to have really stepped out of the typical results here. He's down in the tenths of percent of total cases.

GrantDawg 12-14-2020 03:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PilotMan (Post 3318147)
Back to the Doctor today with testicular pain that started late Saturday. There's no way that this is related to Covid, right? Good news is that it's not torsion. I was fully prepared to spend the rest of the day back at the hospital, but it wasn't that. It is indeed related, and can last for 3 months. He is really frustrated with all this. Next up is an ultrasound on his balls to make sure that he's got good flow. His doctor expects it to be fine, but needs to be totally sure. He said that my son is the 3rd case of this he's seen, but nobody else in his Dr group has had one. Typically it's with the worst cases, but my son seems to have really stepped out of the typical results here. He's down in the tenths of percent of total cases.

Poor guy. That is not where you want pain.

thesloppy 12-14-2020 03:57 PM

His mood must be absolute shit. Best wishes for him, and you by extension.

ISiddiqui 12-14-2020 04:05 PM

Yikes. Sorry to hear that PM :(.

Edward64 12-14-2020 05:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PilotMan (Post 3318147)
Back to the Doctor today with testicular pain that started late Saturday. There's no way that this is related to Covid, right? Good news is that it's not torsion. I was fully prepared to spend the rest of the day back at the hospital, but it wasn't that. It is indeed related, and can last for 3 months. He is really frustrated with all this. Next up is an ultrasound on his balls to make sure that he's got good flow. His doctor expects it to be fine, but needs to be totally sure. He said that my son is the 3rd case of this he's seen, but nobody else in his Dr group has had one. Typically it's with the worst cases, but my son seems to have really stepped out of the typical results here. He's down in the tenths of percent of total cases.


Sorry to hear him going through this.

Yes, I would never have thought it was related. Pretty weird.

Izulde 12-14-2020 06:08 PM

Woke up this morning with symptoms. And of course Gmail was down right when I need to notify the principal. So I also called it in. Spoke to healthcare folks. They're marking me as presumed positive due to transportation issues to get tested. A mobile unit is coming to town Friday so I'll hike over and get tested then.

Mandatory 10 day quarantine and trying to navigate the paperwork needed since I'm going to teach from home unless I reach a point where I have to be hospitalized.

GrantDawg 12-14-2020 06:35 PM

Sorry, Izulde. Hope everything goes well.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

whomario 12-14-2020 06:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ksyrup (Post 3318056)
On that point, are people who already got it going to get the vaccine? Eventually, you can get it again from what I understand. So by June I expect that even Covid positives from 2020 would need to get the vaccine, right?


It's unknown as of yet how long either immunity 'version' (infection or vaccine) actually lasts for the majority. Just because there are confirmed reinfectionss doesn't mean it won't last quite a bit longer for the vast majority. On the flipside, the fact that reinfections are rare also doesn't guarantee it won't happen more often in a few months. Immunology is devilishly complex from what i understand (or not understand). So far the consensus is that it will fall somewhere between looooooong term immunity (the first SARS patients still are most likely immune) and a somewhat 'cycle' type thing.
It definitely is not a flu situation as some allude to on social media, simply because the issues with the flu are ones that aren't aplicable here (Flu is actually a varity of different viruses and disctinctly different 'sub-strains' that also change rather rapidly from season to season). Which again does not mean there aren't other factors at play. Just that whatever will turn out to be the case, it's not a "well, just look at flu" thing.

Here the question isn't wether the virus side of things changes too much, but if the immune systems reaction is creating enough of a protection for long lasting immunity. And if it does, the question is wether it protects against re-infection or 'only' against illness, meaning it'll be less severe the 2nd and 3rd time around. Where again a few counter-examples of people having a worse reaction don't mean that isn't the case for the vast majority. There's hardly ever any "always" with immunology or health in general.

And the vaccines come with pretty much the same caveats. They are designed to get the body to follow a certain 'playbook', but it's not foolproof. And the longevity itself, while not so rarely actually being longer from vaccination than infection (think of a vaccine as a pretend-infection optimized for the best outcome), still can't be pinpointed any better simply because the reference point from infections isn't there.

in short, i doubt there will be a "no vaccine for infected persons" formula, but on the other hand also not much harm if skipped for now. Especially if they still show antibodies (which of course i don't know if there are plans to provide that information via testing). Considering likely some 75% or more never get diagnosed, more in spring than now, there will be plenty who get both (and no, that's not a problem).

Thomkal 12-14-2020 07:21 PM

Man Izulde, very sorry to hear that. (((big hug)))

whomario 12-15-2020 04:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sterlingice (Post 3318088)
https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/14/healt...ess/index.html

Hey, remember for a few minutes in the summer when there were a handful of studies that were like "family transmission isn't terribly high" "or surprisingly rare" or whatever? Unsurprisingly, when we look closer at it, that is not the case and, frankly, never it really intuitively made sense.

In my mind, we generally don't quite understand the "how" of the virus but we understand the "what". It's a black box - we understand the outputs and inputs but we don't understand the exact mechanism. Viral load seems to matter a huge deal so duration and density of exposure are the major factors. Being older and/or with comorbidities exacerbate the illness significantly... but that's true of most illnesses. However, it's unlike the flu in that the old and the young are particularly vulnerable - more the old.

Remember how, at first, kids were not going to die. And then they did.

The airline industry keeps touting a study or two about how it's really safe to fly right now. Only, all that I've seen have been funded by industry groups and, again, it doesn't intuitively make sense with what was know about the disease.

Opening schools is really safe? C'mon, we know better. Any parents with kids will tell you how kids catch every illness under the sun and spread them around at school. There's no reason to think COVID would be any different. And, again, anyone with kids knows how well different age groups of kids will follow different sets of instructions like wearing masks and keeping socially distant.

That's not to say there aren't/won't be odd little quirks to the illness. But I've just been really skeptical of every time a study comes out that says it behaves significantly different than we think it should. We're past the point where we should be acting like we don't understand many of the major facets of this illness.

SI


I find it fascinating how media makes a narrative fresh again by choosing different numbers and assigning new meaning or combining vastly different study designs for an article Because the comprehensive META study basically bang on consolidates the earlier estimates. We always knew homes are 'hotspots' but the numbers also were surprisingly low. Which never meant "non-existant" but simply not high enough to explain the amount of spread.

And with kids the fact remains, that it spreads less than expected when comparing it to other viruses, to them and from them. It's just that nuance is a lost art and people want it to be all or nothing. With an Influenzavirus keeping schools open would be impossible, with this it is justified to at least try und n tandem with keeping transmissions lowiah in general. Unfortunately that part has proven nigh impossible without a heavy hand. But this remains the problem, not schools properly monitored and managed (of course not simply doing business as normal, that's daft) somehow kickstarting things.

Edward64 12-15-2020 06:16 AM

I think we know this already but reinforcing the "light at the end of the tunnel" news - regular people probably Mar-Apr-May.

I won't be surprised if the roll-out is faster and early part of that timeline. A focused President should be able to do wonders.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/14/covi...ly-spring.html
Quote:

In interviews with CNBC, Walgreens and CVS Health officials said they expect to give shots to the general public starting in the early spring.
:
Chris Cox, a senior vice president of CVS, said he hopes the company can give the vaccine at its drugstores “somewhere in the April/May timeframe.”

Two prominent public health officials — Dr. Anthony Fauci, White House coronavirus advisor, and Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of Brown University School of Public Health — both said Monday that they expect healthy Americans who don’t qualify for a vaccine due to their job or health condition to start getting the vaccine by late March or April.

Radii 12-15-2020 10:49 AM

I'm supposed to do some traveling to plan a potential cross country move in May/June, the timing will be perfect it would appear.

ISiddiqui 12-15-2020 02:07 PM

So our county (Dekalb, GA) decided while cases are spiking higher than it's been, it's a GREAT time to open schools. So the plan is for teachers to go back January 4 and then students go back two weeks later. They used to have a cases per 100k standard, but they've decided to discard that because they are waaaay too far from meeting that standard.

Atocep 12-15-2020 02:12 PM

Our hospital starts vaccinating staff tomorrow. No word on a schedule or where our IT department will fall in line.

Edward64 12-15-2020 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atocep (Post 3318292)
Our hospital starts vaccinating staff tomorrow. No word on a schedule or where our IT department will fall in line.


Let us know how it goes (and any side effects) !

henry296 12-15-2020 04:10 PM

Spent way too much time today looking at the COVID tracking project website. Based on current cases per 1MM people, the SE / Texas are among the lowest rates while the NE / MW are the bigger hot spots. Based on mask-wearing and public policy that surprised me. Do we think that is mostly driven by weather and increased indoor contact or just randomness of the virus?

sterlingice 12-15-2020 04:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by henry296 (Post 3318316)
Spent way too much time today looking at the COVID tracking project website. Based on current cases per 1MM people, the SE / Texas are among the lowest rates while the NE / MW are the bigger hot spots. Based on mask-wearing and public policy that surprised me. Do we think that is mostly driven by weather and increased indoor contact or just randomness of the virus?


https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-upda...ositive-cases/
Texas and the SE got hammered hard in the 2nd wave (if we're counting March as the 1st, Summer as the 2nd, and now as the 3rd). We've been heading back up for the last month but it seems like other places were ahead of our pace early on. I think our worst months are going to be January and February while I think maybe some of the other parts of the country are cresting now.

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-upda...pital-systems/
That said, I think we're at a fraction of cases we were at then. We were running at an insane 20%+ on tests back then so we were badly under-counting cases.

I think people did modify their behavior here a bit back in June or July. But it's been back to "normal" for a while now so I'm not sure why it's taking until now to start ramping back up.

Maybe the weather is a significant factor - either physically or socially (more people indoors). It's been posited but I haven't seen a great conclusive study as to why.

SI

MIJB#19 12-15-2020 04:51 PM

We're back into semi-lockdown for 5 weeks. "Black Friday" will forever be about the rise of COVID-19 deaths and the second lockdown of 2020. What non-sense is it to have people cheer while having no frickin' clue why they brought over a should be unique to the USA tradition, which gets widely frauded with by yanking up prices 33% a week earlier to be able to claim to give 25% off.

Ksyrup 12-16-2020 01:10 PM

How can someone be a nurse 9 months into a pandemic and still be "politically motivated" to refuse a vaccine?


miami_fan 12-16-2020 02:30 PM

What are they worried about politically? That the numbers might go down and that would benefit Biden?

RainMaker 12-16-2020 02:32 PM

The country is split. Half want the virus to continue to infect people and the other half doesn't. No need to make it more confusing than it is.

IlliniCub 12-16-2020 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ksyrup (Post 3318407)
How can someone be a nurse 9 months into a pandemic and still be "politically motivated" to refuse a vaccine?


5 days ago I was in a store to grab something real quick. I saw only two people without a mask, one was wearing an RN badge from the local hospital.

Ben E Lou 12-16-2020 02:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miami_fan (Post 3318414)
What are they worried about politically? That the numbers might go down and that would benefit Biden?

I know one nurse who isn't getting it because, well, it might make her look like a liberal. For some it's as basic as "my tribe isn't afraid of coronavirus, and my tribal identity is the most important identity I have."

Ksyrup 12-16-2020 02:54 PM

Yeah, I guess that's it. F reality, I am more concerned with being true to Trump/GOP than I am to my patients.

Brian Swartz 12-16-2020 03:39 PM

As I've said before, there are people I know in the medical profession, work in ERs, etc. who think the whole mask thing is absurd, have no plan to take the vaccine, etc. For some of them it isn't political, they believe the long-term older studies about mask effectiveness, don't buy the newer vaccine tech being used here, think it's too much of a rush, etc. Medical professionals.

There's a real divide here.

Ben E Lou 12-16-2020 04:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3318431)
As I've said before, there are people I know in the medical profession, work in ERs, etc. who think the whole mask thing is absurd, have no plan to take the vaccine, etc. For some of them it isn't political, they believe the long-term older studies about mask effectiveness, don't buy the newer vaccine tech being used here, think it's too much of a rush, etc. Medical professionals.

There's a real divide here.

Agree 100%. Both groups most definitely exist.

PilotMan 12-16-2020 04:49 PM

Even though both groups exist there is one of those two groups that is substantially larger, and newer to the entire argument against masks. Besides, all the people who are holding onto the old study that was published have ignored subsequent studies related, and instead of looking for the best answers are picking and choosing what is convenient for them.

Like the guy I flew with who based his entire point of view on the 'hoax' of global warming because he'd been flying over Siberia for 15 years and nothing had ever changed, therefore 'hoax'.

miami_fan 12-16-2020 05:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3318431)
As I've said before, there are people I know in the medical profession, work in ERs, etc. who think the whole mask thing is absurd, have no plan to take the vaccine, etc. For some of them it isn't political, they believe the long-term older studies about mask effectiveness, don't buy the newer vaccine tech being used here, think it's too much of a rush, etc. Medical professionals.

There's a real divide here.


That is why I asked about the specific group that said it was political. The people you are describing all seem to have non political reasons. I may agree or disagree with the reasoning but I do understand for the most part. That divide makes sense to me. I don’t understand not taking the vaccine because it may make them look like a liberal.

Ksyrup 12-16-2020 05:45 PM

I think Ben summed it up - being accepted by their tribe matters more.

I also think social media has allowed us to be so open about our beliefs to so many people that its harder to change your opinion/belief when you've been so vocal one way to so many people. When it was just you and your nuclear family and maybe a few people at work, it's a lot easier to flip on a position when you get more facts or are confronted with reality. But now, the embarrassment of admitting you got duped is too great, so these people are doubling down on these positions, to the point of believing misinformation and lies. And it's easy to do, because you can find support for literally ANY position and that justifies it.

RainMaker 12-16-2020 05:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3318431)
As I've said before, there are people I know in the medical profession, work in ERs, etc. who think the whole mask thing is absurd, have no plan to take the vaccine, etc. For some of them it isn't political, they believe the long-term older studies about mask effectiveness, don't buy the newer vaccine tech being used here, think it's too much of a rush, etc. Medical professionals.

There's a real divide here.


Not really. Most of those people are complete morons and in the minority.

I can maybe see young people being wary of the vaccine for awhile till it's been tested more. Anyone over 50 though is an imbecile for not getting it.

Even if you don't believe in science and think masks are ineffective, there is no harm in wearing them. It's like using a blinker at a light when there are no cars around.

cuervo72 12-16-2020 06:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou (Post 3318420)
I know one nurse who isn't getting it because, well, it might make her look like a liberal. For some it's as basic as "my tribe isn't afraid of coronavirus, and my tribal identity is the most important identity I have."


What is there to be done then? If we get to a point where everyone who wants the vaccine can actually get it...? I mean, at a certain point don't you just have to shrug and let them do what they want, consequences be damned? Go ahead, kill yourself tilting at windmills all you like.

bhlloy 12-16-2020 06:35 PM

Problem is it’s relatively unlikely they go ahead and kill themselves but they may well still kill somebody at risk given all the vaccines are somewhere south of 95% effective.

So they can still stop us getting to herd immunity which means things still can’t get back to normal - which ironically is completely counterintuitive to their overall goals. But can’t let the snowflake libtard virus win or something.

Edward64 12-16-2020 06:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3318431)
As I've said before, there are people I know in the medical profession, work in ERs, etc. who think the whole mask thing is absurd, have no plan to take the vaccine, etc. For some of them it isn't political, they believe the long-term older studies about mask effectiveness, don't buy the newer vaccine tech being used here, think it's too much of a rush, etc. Medical professionals.

There's a real divide here.


I think it's perfectly okay for some not to want to take it right away and yeah, taking it gives me a little pause as there has not been any long term studies and it is new tech. But the pros outweigh the cons.

I have no problems taking it in Mar+. But unsure if I really want to take it in in Dec (but reserve the right to change my mind).

Re: healthcare professionals, I was not able to find a poll. As of Nov, there was a poll that said about 65-35% would take it. My guess (and hope) is healthcare professionals will be much less than 35%.

As for masks, not sure what the study is but how could it not help lessen the spread, even some?

Edward64 12-16-2020 06:44 PM

Here's are the categories of people who should/not take it (at least for now).

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/16/healt...ine/index.html

miami_fan 12-16-2020 06:45 PM

Oliver Stone says he's taken Russian coronavirus vaccine | TheHill

PilotMan 12-16-2020 06:46 PM

Well, and the vaccines are guaranteed to kill some people. Everything carries risk with it. But the risks from not taking the vaccine far, far outweigh the stories about them killing people. Those stories are going to be the headlines on many news leads, but it's not going to focus the story. Instead it'll be how someone got sick, died, and how the vaccines are now suddenly unsafe. Then there will be lawsuits, and a shitload of negative coverage. Guaranteed. But you know, if we don't have any vaccines instead of a few thousand who might die, it'll be a few hundred thousand more who die without it.

thesloppy 12-16-2020 06:55 PM

Well, this isn't the first group of people that Brian claims to know an entire set of, that isn't represented by a single person here or a single person known by anybody here. Do all these medical professionals come from the Reason.com comments, by any chance?

RainMaker 12-16-2020 06:55 PM

People who tried to spread the virus should not be first in line for a vaccine.

COVID-19 the leading cause of death for US police officers in 2020

Ben E Lou 12-16-2020 07:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bhlloy (Post 3318450)
Problem is it’s relatively unlikely they go ahead and kill themselves

Bingo. This is a 30something in great physical condition and I don’t believe her to have any comorbidities. Odds are if she gets it, she’s fine in a few days. Just a combination of selfishness and overly tribal identity—neither of which are uncommon traits in our society.

Edward64 12-16-2020 07:36 PM

I have a sister and brother that are RN's. I have 2 SIL that are RN's. I have a BIL that is an OBGYN. Of that group, one said they would not take it anytime soon. I don't view this relative as crazy or irrational, just a different way of assessing risks vs benefits.

So yeah, they exist.


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