Some good news, inspired by an old friend in my home town:

https://www.ledger-enquirer.com/news...241903186.html

I've known Grant since I was a freshman in high school. He's the younger brother of one of my closest friends, and as such we hung out at his house a ton. (His older brother was one of my groomsmen, and his parents gave a portion of an exorbitant wedding gift to my wife and me.) Grant and I also served on Young Life staff together in the Atlanta area until he left, sensing a calling to med school. He has never made anywhere near his income ceiling, as he has been in non-profit clinics for his entire career, first in Augusta, before moving back to Columbus to start MercyMed maybe 8-10 years ago.

Dola...and yet another reminder on testing/stats, from that piece:


One little non-profit clinic setting up tests in a church parking lot increased the number of cases in a county of 200,000 people by 68% in 7 hours. Lovely.

Which makes me think the decision to curtail testing from our leadership has it's genesis in the desire to force numbers down.

This goes both ways, look at how many more people that had it and didn't die, death rates are vastly inflated, its not serious, etc., etc.

I like the numbers where they are. - Trump

The number of cases among sailors on the Roosevelt has climbed to almost 600 and tragically, the first death was also recorded. Crozier is a hero.

Agreed. Most of my navy buddies have said Crozier was fired not because of what he did, but he made the upper brass look bad. This has been going on for years in the navy, not sure how it is in the other branches.

My son, who was assigned for an extended time to the Nimitz agreed with this sentiment as well. He is pretty sure that Crozier knew this would put him in jeopardy, but also made it clear that he is the type of commanding officer that is loved in the Navy for just that reason.

It creeps through other branches as well. Interesting piece on the issues within the Navy.

Firing of USS Theodore Roosevelt captain fits Navy discipline pattern - Business Insider

I mentioned earlier in the thread that he knew this was a career ender. It would be in any branch. It's also something that's going to command the respect of his sailors and other commanders (at least the non-MAGA type) which is partly why the Sec of the Navy's speech was so awful. All that speech and the spike in covid cases has done is push that crew further into CPT Crozer's corner.

It was reported this weekend that several other officers on the TR offered to sign the letter, but Crozier refused, saying it should be all on him. I'm sure after getting nowhere with the higher-ups previously, he knew exactly what was likely to happen and did it anyway to save his crew.

I think that they give him back the ship. IF not under Trump then when the next CiC is elected.

I could only see this administration doing it with strings attached. A public apology while mentioning what a great job the President is doing as much as possible and think Trump multiple times for giving him the opportunity again.

This is the part that worries me the most. We've already been told that we've done "more testing than anyone", and there's no reason to test a large percentage of the population.

So I took a look at Florida's numbers:

Estimated population is 7.99M
Total number of tests that have been conducted in Florida as of yesterday = 196,819
Approx 2.5% of the population has been tested.

I'm very willing to accept that the death rates are much lower (I'm sure that will turn out to be the case...). But, I personally wouldn't venture back out when the restrictions are eased until the percentage of the population tested is significantly higher.

Elaine Doyle on Twitter: "I don't understand the British media. I really, really don't.

Basic things: Ireland and the UK started this pandemic with roughly the same number of ICU beds (6.5 per 100,000 for Ireland, 6.6 per 100,000 in the UK).

If anything, the UK was slightly better off.… https://t.co/uXRhR5a503"

This is an incredibly sobering thread as to the difference between Ireland and the UK in handling COVID 19.


With the same number of ICU beds, but a very different idea of when they should close down the country.

And very different population densities, very different numbers of large cities, different levels of international travel, and so on.

Why has New York state suffered so badly, but states in the farm belt not? Different social conditions.

New York also shut down the state too late compared to, say, California.

I don't know, California issued the Stay at Home on Thursday (3/19), while New York issued there's on Sunday (3/22). I'm sure that 3-day difference mattered a little - but the bigger issue is population density (New York City is over double that of LA, SF, etc) and a more integrated mass-transit system where people are forced to be near each other. If you reverse the Stay at Home dates (Cali is 3/22 and NY is 3/19), New York would still be significantly worse off than California. Texas didn't issue there's until April 2 and are in a much better spot than New York (3/22). But, they don't have the population density or mass transit setup of NY.

My point is that this virus spreads most dangerously in urban populations, and UK and Ireland are not comparable in the same way New York and an agricultural state in the centre of the US are not comparable

For example, around 2/3 of Irish citizens live in urban areas, around 83% of UK population do.

Dublin would slot into the UK city list somewhere in the top 5 depending on how you measure Manchester, Birmingham and Glasgow.

Ireland’s next biggest city is Cork, which is the about same size as the 30th biggest city in the UK.

Derry is #3 in Ireland, approximately the same as #90 in the UK.

Even if shutdowns occurred at exactly the same relative point, numbers would be very different between the two countries, as would be the case with NY and a more rural state.

I would also point out that Ireland is testing at a much higher rater than the UK is. So the numbers may be even more out of kilter. So Hong Kong and Taiwan have very very high density numbers but also have seen some decent results - mostly due to how early shutdown orders went into effect compared to initial cases.

Just found out one of my oldest friends nd his wife both tested positive last week.

Wife is a Nurse in Eastern NC. She was tested because of a known exposure. Tested positive on Monday but has largely been unaffected. He began feeling bad and was tested Tuesday and also positive. Said it was a rough 48 hours, high fever, cough "felt like crap" largely on the other side now and back at work (from home) today.

They are early/mid 50s for reference. Really glad he's ok. He's had a 2 year helluva bad run. ALmost died in a fire explosion, then was hit by a semi at full speed who didnt stop at a red light and now this.

I told him it was time to get right with the man!

Hong Kong & Taiwan examples are very fair counterpoints TBH :D

Jimminy!

Which is a key component. Not just to get more accurate numbers (and thus a better overwiew) but it is highly relevant both for slowing the spread and treating the sick. Why ? Because lots of tests generally means good access to testing, which means the criteria for testing is more lenient meaning you test more people with very mild symptoms (and the bad cases almost all start mild, very different from the flu which often opens with a big punch !) or even known contacts, especially in the early stage.

This then has two major effects:

1) you can monitor people (and they themselves) and treat them much earlier. A Person tested before getting really sick can also be processed and treated immediately if he starts getting worse, you don't have to wait for the test (can't put people in the covid ward with all the bells and whistles before you know he has it, because what if he has boiler plate respiratory issues and now he gets covid in the hospital ?)

2) you can quarantine/isolate many more people and they themselves act more carefully and even if the authorities can't test their family members or friends they will know they might have been exposed.

I guarantee that had all countries had todays testing capacity 4 weeks ago, they would all be a lot better off.

Of course geography, sociocultural differences play a role but as with every illness early detection makes it more treatable and early isolation guarantees less transmission.

Also, there is more and more evidence that early (!) treatment with regular or high pressure respirators is a lot more effective than whatever happens after you intubate and ventilate. A person being rushed to hospital because he literally can't breathe on his own already has a very low chance of survival no matter what you do.

Death rates on ventilators (which are a last ditch effort with other illnesses, too, not a desired treatment) are aparently insanely high in regions that gets lots of very sick people in a short period, a lot higher than in countries that manage to limit having to put them on there in the first place because they can treat them earlier. (From what i gathered, there is no one stat page tracking it if course) .

I think the fixation on ventilators is not the best measure for preparednes right now. Having testing and plenty of doctors/nurses is.


https://time.com/5818547/ventilators-coronavirus/

It's all good, y'all! We have a cracker-jack council of brains assembled to get a handle on loosening restrictions...

I know I feel much better....... pic.twitter.com/9pGIKG9ZXa

— Proud Conservative Scum (@40AcresBuilt) April 13, 2020

Proud Conservative Scum on Twitter: "I know I feel much better.......… "
Proud Conservative Scum on Twitter: "I know I feel much better.......… "

Wait. Aren't those just the same group of people who are supposedly doing everything else?

JFC

Sweeden really is an interesting case in point here. Their numbers are far out of whack compared to other countries with similar infection numbers. They are just shy of 11k cases, and rapidly closing in on 1,000 deaths as a result. They have more deaths per million than the US does. The next closest country to them is Portugal with 400 less deaths and 6000 more cases. After than is Brazil with 300 more deaths, but more than twice the number of cases.



I think watching their numbers over the next two weeks and if the country has any change in their approach to policy as a result.

They are already changing to more restrictions after more and more hospitals and care homes sounded the alarm.
4 times higher per capita deaths than Norway, too (somewhat comparable circumstances as far as early spreaders, geography and ressources)

Plus, they don't report deaths in care homes yet (Belgium f.e does, France started to but UK and most others don't)) and very few on the weekend + today was a holiday, expect those to be put into tomorrows number ...

One thing they have going for them is a very healthy population, for example they have about the fewest deaths for other respiratory illnesses and illnesses caused or effected by pollution (which is naturally a factor here along with smoking. Mind: A factor, not the only one)

https://m.dw.com/image/46208486_7.png

As for how well the whole "well, we'll just protect the vulnerable" works, that people point to when they complain why the healthy have to isolate:


They banned family visits 4 weeks ago.

Coronavirus: Don't expect changes to UK lockdown this week - Dominic Raab - BBC News

One more re: South Korean 're-infection' cases:

Christian Drosten on Twitter: "Puzzled about re-infection, re-activation, or recurrence of PCR-positivity after revovery from #COVID19? Look how PCR toggles between positive and negative toward the end of courses. Yellow=throat swab; red=sputum; grey=stool. Dotted line=detection limit. https://t.co/DA7nyEkSA9… https://t.co/jqeFtnwLaD"

Essentially says it is way more likely to be traces of viral RNA left over that the very sensitive test might not detect one das but does again the next (might just be you get more RNA on the swab) not new infection nor likely to be still in infectious.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2009316

Not sure what to draw from this but definitely interesting.
Might speak to the general spread (in New York !) being widespread but maybe also that it is particularly widespread in the medical community (presumably there is overlap as far as contacts with healthcare professionals if they all end up at the same hospital for delivery ?).

Also maybe more proof that close contact, like during a checkup, is definitely the main issue. Going on the assumption that these women aren't likely to bustle all over New York in late february or early march, much less mid march. The way the virus ends up infecting half a retirement home, starting from a single asymptomatic nurse f.e., in a week or two kinda also plays into that theory

But it definitely shows the danger for all sorts of other patients (many of which will be vulnerable) and personel in hospitals without intense testing, ideally patients all have to be tested on admission and treated as if they are carriers until a negative test, as well as doctors and nurses need to be tested often and regularly. Same for retirement homes.

Sad story. And likely more people were exposed, meaning it certainly could get worse.

Virginia pastor who held packed church service dies of coronavirus

No doubt there will be some ugly reaction on the (mostly blue) "told you so" side of this. Let's hope that there's at least a whisper of simple, plain, realization here that might strike a chord with some members of the communities who continue to flout and deny the situation. Maybe? Possibly?

sadly that won't be the last of these types of stories Quik

Fascinating quick study on immediate prevalence of COVID 19...

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2009316

TLDR… They tested asymptomatic women being admitted for delivery in New York city hospitals, late March/early April, and about 14% were positive for Covid

Might speak to the general spread (in New York) but maybe also that it is particularly widespread in the medical community (who obviously still have tons of close contacts) as pregnant women can't well put off checkups and are unlikely to be out and about all over New York, presumably.

But the 14% is similar to what a german study found for out No1 Hotspot (in terms of cases per capita).

But it definitely shows the danger to all sorts of patients (many of which will be vulnerable) and personel in hospitals without intense testing, ideally patients all have to be tested on admission and treated as if they are carriers until a negative test, as well as doctors and nurses need to be tested often and regularly. Same for retirement homes.

It's just an interesting early data point in the big unknown... if we are so limited with testing, for whatever reasons, we are missing a critically important number - how many people, especially asymptomatic ones, are carrying this bug? It's the denominator in the very important mortality rate that is properly driving much of our public response, and as a nearly complete unknown that's maddening. It's also critically important to have a sense of whether community spread is distant, emerging, or fully underway in our "hot spot" areas. And the measures of transmissibility are obviously best when informed by real information on who has it.

We have data issues everywhere -- as the increasing politicization of how to count the victims, and who goes into the "count" will continue to render all those numbers less stable/reliable.

Anyway, the approach of testing near-delivery women as a proxy for "had not choice but to go to the medical facility" population is pretty brilliant, and simple. Not prefect, of course, but you can do it in a week, rather than 18 months, and that has enormous value.

I'm getting somewhat stir crazy right now, have not been out for a while other than walking the dog and doing yard work. My car sits in the driveway collecting pollen, rain washes it off and rinse-and-repeat.

worldometers said we had 1500+ deaths yesterday, much better than the 1900+ to 2000+ deaths last week. Unfortunately ajc.com says GA is going to peak in a couple weeks. We placed another Kroger pickup order last night which will be ready on Sun for a 6 day turn-a-round period. Need a haircut. Want to go to HD or Lowes to pick up mulch, dirt and some plants.

Shouldn't complain since I know I have it easier than many and the US stay-at-home is a lot less restrictive than other countries. But still sucks.

Do you have a link to the German study? I'd like to read that one. I know I've seen one out of Germany but it was pretty flawed (tested for all Coronaviruses, for instance) and they had to pull back the study. I'd love to read something with much better data.

SI

Not sure where to put this, but my mother in law has started posting all sorts of nutty conspiracy theories about Covid 19. That Fauci and Birx are deep state Obama people, that Bill Gates is fearmongering because he is going to make a ton on the virus, that it was actually made in a virus factory in Wuhan China, and all of this is connected. And mostly so Gates can make money (because that's what he's been focused on since he left Microsoft) and they can make President Trump look bad.

And she's a nurse in a hospice facility!

I see these in my fb feed and I have serious reservations about those who have shared and liked. Like, maybe we can't be friends anymore kind of thoughts, because I thought you were smarter than that.

Actually that is the one ("Heinsberg study").
And i absolutely agree that the methodology is not transparent enough by a long shot, the main issue is without documentation available you have no idea what the demographics ended up being f.e. (families, singles, old, young, retirement homes, where do they work etc).
All we really have are a few numbers and a few generalities uttered at a press conference and in interviews.

There is another big study underway in Munich across both inner city and suburb demographics (and in a city that has lots of confirmed cases but not such an unusual high number as Heinsberg with their super-spreading carnival event). I'll let you know when they are done, this should yield a few english language articles ...

There was a decently comprehensive study last week in Austria across the country and all demographics (about 1500 people all in all) that came out at 0.33 % positives or roughly twice as high as the official infection rate (so 1 in 3 detected) which i suspect is similar in Germany simply because all relevant official numbers (tests, positives, deaths, hospital patients) for both countries are virtually identical if adjusted for population size. Could not find an english link :(

So my guess is that areas that really have heavy casualties might actually be in that 10-25 % range but not going to be anywhere close to 'herd immunity' and if a country had 10-25 % across their territory, we'd not be talking about reopening anything (right now as cynical as it sounds, these somewhat isolated super-hotspots are better to manage than if the whole country was affected even 1/3 as bad)

Right. We've been a bit... not happy with my mother-in-law for a while because of this sort of nuttiness on FB (though the other instances are more appropriate for the Trump thread). I know she had been minimizing this (constantly saying JUST WASH YOUR HANDS, etc), but jeez...

It sounds like Arizona is going to hit its peak a week from now (according to the local experts). So, the state is starting to setup a plan to start relaxing the shelter in place. I haven't heard the conditions on it yet, though - I hope we don't rush into it, but I think it's smart to start preparing.

First day of net decline in hospitalizations for NY.

And all it took was shutting down one of the largest cities in the world almost a full month ago (3/20).

(but, of course, it's all a hoax)

SI

Sweden went the herd immunity route and it backfired. Not sure I trust the numbers out of Brazil.

Numbers today should spike because NY is now adding in those who died outside of hospitals that are presumed coronavirus cases. So it'll be a large lump sum I think to today's total and not indicative of the trend.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/n...c5a7877325800d

I know it's weird thought, but... I played a little bit today "plague inc" and now I see how close to reality the game is and why it was praised for it's accuracy even looking as casual game. Playing as a virus is really scaring now.