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-   -   COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778) (http://forums.operationsports.com/fofc//showthread.php?t=96561)

PilotMan 01-03-2021 03:34 PM

That still doesn't make what I said wrong. Every person can have a voice, but the society has to have a level of accepted ideals that fit inside democracy. People can have differences within that system, but if beliefs do not exist within the function of that system, then it's not functional.

Brian Swartz 01-03-2021 03:35 PM

You've completely lost me there. I don't even know what your argument is, but I will stop derailing this thread at this point.

PilotMan 01-03-2021 03:37 PM

I honestly don't know how you can't, but as usual, best wishes and everything.

cartman 01-03-2021 04:09 PM

My tests and my parent's tests came back negative. Which means my nephew got it from the other grandparents. But they refuse to get tested.

JPhillips 01-03-2021 04:10 PM

Just found out a former director from my long-ago summer theatre days died this morning in NC. Be careful out there folks.

sterlingice 01-03-2021 04:13 PM

Re: Brian, PilotMan, molson, et al

I've struggled with this a bit over the last couple of years.

I think, in a lot of ways, Brian is right - cutting off all ties to people who disagree will just isolate them. They might have listened to you, you might have been able to stage that intervention that gets them out of the hole. It's one thing for some random person to be shouting dogma at you but it's another for your trusted friend/family member to feel differently and to make you think about it.

But I also get where both molson and PilotMan are coming from - you do have a duty to protect those you love. I'm fortunate to not be in a position where I've had to do that. My family has similar political beliefs but not all and even those who are longtime GOP members wouldn't back Trump this year. So I've only had to make that choice with friends and acquaintances - not family.

Even beyond that, I think there's a real danger in elevating those extreme viewpoints to where they appear "mainstream". Just talking about two things - one rational and one extreme - in the same breath moves the Overton window towards that more extreme viewpoint. I can guarantee there are some people that view overturning a Presidential election no different than debating tax policy and that seems really dangerous. I definitely understand the idea that you can't just let something like this breeze by - the whole idea of "silence is compliance" or whatever catchy slogan.

So, I mean, I guess all I'm saying is I think both are right and I don't know a good answer here and I'm glad I haven't had to deal with it personally.

SI

cartman 01-03-2021 04:43 PM

JFC

The other grandparents now said they were exposed to someone with COVID, and the grandmother not feeling well, when they traveled from Indiana to Texas.

Edward64 01-03-2021 07:00 PM

In addition to UK delaying the 2nd dose, the US is now exploring giving half-dose for Moderna. I'm all for it if the efficacy is still pretty high. Haven't heard from Fauci though.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/03/us-c...erna-shot.html
Quote:

The head of the federal government’s Covid-19 vaccine program said Sunday that health officials are exploring the idea of giving a major group of Americans half volume doses of one vaccine to accelerate the rollout.

Moncef Slaoui, the head of Operation Warp Speed, said on CBS’ “Face the Nation” that one way to speed up immunizations against Covid-19 was to give two half-volume doses of the Moderna vaccine to some individuals.

“We know that for the Moderna vaccine giving half the dose for people between the ages of 18 to 55 — two doses, half the dose, which means exactly achieving the objective of immunizing double the number of people with the doses we have — we know it induces identical immune response to the 100 microgram dose,” Slaoui said.

“And therefore, we are in discussions with Moderna and with the FDA — of course ultimately it will be an FDA decision — to accelerate injecting half the volume,” he added.

JPhillips 01-03-2021 07:06 PM

We currently are at less than 20% of vaccines delivered being administered. There's no need right now to look at ways to increase doses per vial. The effort needs to be put towards greatly expanding the speed of getting vaccines into people.

Atocep 01-03-2021 07:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3320702)
We currently are at less than 20% of vaccines delivered being administered. There's no need right now to look at ways to increase doses per vial. The effort needs to be put towards greatly expanding the speed of getting vaccines into people.


I was reading some of the hurdles California is running into getting their vaccines out and it seems like the administration shipped the vaccines, celebrated, and spiked the proverbial football thinking it's all over when an enormous amount of work and obsticles remain.

JPhillips 01-03-2021 08:07 PM

We're going to end up throwing away a ton of vaccine in January when we reach the expiration dates.

Another problem is how much concern there is for not giving the vaccine to anyone outside of the protocols. There should be a wait list and as vials get to expiration, anyone on the list can get a vaccine.

sterlingice 01-03-2021 09:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3320708)
We're going to end up throwing away a ton of vaccine in January when we reach the expiration dates.

Another problem is how much concern there is for not giving the vaccine to anyone outside of the protocols. There should be a wait list and as vials get to expiration, anyone on the list can get a vaccine.


I know someone who works in a hospital here in Houston and they've done just that. During Phase 1A, they had Phase 1B people on standby so they didn't waste a single dose. With Phase 1B, they had general population people who worked there on standby. They even have a few hundred doses not claimed over the holidays and they opened those appointments up to the general employee population.

I can't say every facility or institution is that on top of it and I'm sure there will be some waste. But the places I've heard of it are treating it like liquid gold right now. Whether that is still the case in a month... I dunno.

SI

JPhillips 01-03-2021 09:40 PM

My wife's place did the same thing, but they can't go beyond employees. Cuomo is making a big deal about penalties for vaccines given outside of protocols. I understand not wanting the vaccines to go to the healthy and connected, but they should be operating on the idea that every dose needs to be given to someone.

BishopMVP 01-04-2021 12:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3320580)
I know these tests check to see if you have it now (debatable what the false positives/negatives % are) but is it worthwhile to get tested for the antibodies?

The logic is if you have antibodies, that means you have been exposed, recovered (or never got too sick), and therefore it's less pressing for you to get a vaccination?

Anyone here had the antibodies test done?

I had an antibody test back in August when it was much easier to get than a full one & a nose swab the week before Christmas (both negative). I don't know what the current science is saying about immunity from re-infection or different strains, but I'll probably try to get another antibody test & I'll at least feel a little more comfortable if it now shows I've had it.

Iirc, there were several different antibody tests with different rates of false positives, but most of the false results were positives instead of erroneous negatives, and it was both cheap & fast.

Ghost Econ 01-04-2021 12:23 PM

Purely anecdotal here in SC, but my wife had surgery at the main hospital this AM. She's now staying overnight, but I visited her from 9-1 so far today.

At 9, the COVID drive thru testing line at the hospital was full. My best guess about 150 cars in line based on having done it before. When I left at 1, I couldn't see the end of the line as it extended down the street and around a corner just to get to the line.

Brian Swartz 01-04-2021 01:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sterlingice
I think there's a real danger in elevating those extreme viewpoints to where they appear "mainstream". Just talking about two things - one rational and one extreme - in the same breath moves the Overton window towards that more extreme viewpoint. I can guarantee there are some people that view overturning a Presidential election no different than debating tax policy and that seems really dangerous. I definitely understand the idea that you can't just let something like this breeze by - the whole idea of "silence is compliance" or whatever catchy slogan.


A very thoughtful post, and I don't want to gotcha or nitpick here. I agree that silence can often be compliance. My objection to this line of thought doesn't say that we should be silent about problematic views, but rather to ask who gets to decide when something is too extreme and dangerous to be discussed? This is the sort of vein in which I completely agree with Hitchens, and find modern thought on the left to be lacking when it comes to the value of encouraging people to express what they think, whatever it is.

PilotMan 01-04-2021 01:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3320792)
A very thoughtful post, and I don't want to gotcha or nitpick here. I agree that silence can often be compliance. My objection to this line of thought doesn't say that we should be silent about problematic views, but rather to ask who gets to decide when something is too extreme and dangerous to be discussed? This is the sort of vein in which I completely agree with Hitchens, and find modern thought on the left to be lacking when it comes to the value of encouraging people to express what they think, whatever it is.


Which is exactly why we exist in a post-fact world where someone like trump can act and speak how he does, causing the damage he does specifically in that way. Extreme thought isn't extreme to extremists, what they see as extreme is the status quo that has kept things running for generations. Equating those platforms is damaging to society on the whole.

AlexB 01-04-2021 02:25 PM

Unfortunately that is one of the paradoxes within democracy. Everyone has the right to a voice, but some of those voices risk destroying democracy.

AlexB 01-04-2021 02:32 PM

Dola, back onto our scheduled topic - we’re back into full lockdown, likely until the beginning of March reading between the lines

molson 01-04-2021 03:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3320792)
who gets to decide when something is too extreme and dangerous to be discussed?


Again, I do. I get to decide who I associate with. I get to decide what lines are too far for me. Not you. You indicated you agreed with that, but it seems you don't really.

molson 01-04-2021 03:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sterlingice (Post 3320682)

I think, in a lot of ways, Brian is right - cutting off all ties to people who disagree will just isolate them. They might have listened to you, you might have been able to stage that intervention that gets them out of the hole. It's one thing for some random person to be shouting dogma at you but it's another for your trusted friend/family member to feel differently and to make you think about it.


Nah, I still think it's me, and not Brian, who gets to decide if I have to associate with racist Trumpers who want to overthrow the election and our Democracy. Brian can choose your associations if you think that's a better idea for you, but I'm not deferring that role to him for my life. I'm 42, I have zero interest in or ability to convert my 54 year old brother, or making new friends that are super into Trump and support the efforts of his party to overthrow the election.

Brian Swartz 01-04-2021 03:17 PM

I'm not continuing this in this thread, it's already gone too far here. Moving to the Trump one.

NobodyHere 01-04-2021 04:43 PM

So Mick Foley and Larry King has the covids.

Could you imagine the virus killing Mick Foley? After all the abuse he has taken in his wrestling career it would just seem wrong.

GrantDawg 01-04-2021 04:52 PM

They say Larry King is no longer in the ICU which is amazing. He is like 119 years old and has had 50 heart attacks.

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Edward64 01-04-2021 04:54 PM

NY is now the 4th state to find the UK variant. Supposedly more contagious (not sure if more lethal).

I'm not sure I've heard from CDC a definitive "yes, the current Pfizer/Moderna etc. vaccines will work and est. efficacy is X% (or similar)".

I do think it's reasonable to assume it'll be lower than the 94-95% efficacy.

Edward64 01-04-2021 10:23 PM

And know we know the reason.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/04/pros...s-unsafe-.html
Quote:

A Wisconsin pharmacist convinced the world was “crashing down” told police he tried to ruin hundreds of doses of coronavirus vaccine because he believed the shots would mutate people’s DNA, according to court documents released Monday.

Police in Grafton, about 20 miles north of Milwaukee, arrested Advocate Aurora Health pharmacist Steven Brandenburg last week following an investigation into the 57 spoiled vials of the Moderna vaccine, which officials say contained enough doses to inoculate more than 500 people. Charges are pending.

“He’d formed this belief they were unsafe,” Ozaukee County District Attorney Adam Gerol said during a virtual hearing. He added that Brandenburg was upset because he was in the midst of divorcing his wife, and an Aurora employee said Brandenburg had taken a gun to work twice.

molson 01-04-2021 10:32 PM

Is it OK to destroy vaccines if you truly believe that they're harmful? I don't know. But I don't want to be friends with that guy either.

miami_fan 01-05-2021 06:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by molson (Post 3320923)
Is it OK to destroy vaccines if you truly believe that they're harmful? I don't know. But I don't want to be friends with that guy either.


That has already been covered. His job should not force him to do anything that is against his personal beliefs.

Brian Swartz 01-05-2021 10:08 AM

Early stages of care rationing in California: http://file.lacounty.gov/SDSInter/dh...diacArrest.pdf

Definitely the right decision in my opinion, but also an indication of where we are with the hospital overcrowding crisis.

NobodyHere 01-05-2021 10:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miami_fan (Post 3320949)
That has already been covered. His job should not force him to do anything that is against his personal beliefs.


Maybe he should find a different job then.

Ghost Econ 01-05-2021 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3321002)
Early stages of care rationing in California: http://file.lacounty.gov/SDSInter/dh...diacArrest.pdf

Definitely the right decision in my opinion, but also an indication of where we are with the hospital overcrowding crisis.


We need a catchy name for this. Like "deadly panels" or something. You know, like whatever those warlock tribunals were called that Obama and Clinton set up to kill old folks.

miami_fan 01-07-2021 05:58 AM

With all eyes on the little thing going on in D.C. we missed this other little thing going on.

Officials reported at least 3,963 new COVID-19 deaths yesterday, a new single day record.

All right cool, back to D.C.

sterlingice 01-07-2021 03:50 PM

Are we even tracking this anymore? New variant in Houston now - not really unexpected.



SI

rjolley 01-07-2021 05:03 PM

On the road to a crisis? You mean, we weren't already on that road?

sterlingice 01-07-2021 05:11 PM

Houston hasn't been as badly hit by this round as some other places and she's going to speaking specifically to our area (she's a county judge).

Remember, we got crushed back in June and July and we're not quite back up to those numbers again yet:
https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-upda...pitalizations/

However, our positivity rate has shot through the roof the last couple of weeks so it's only a matter of time, unfortunately:
https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-upda...pital-systems/

I'm almost certain this will be our worst month for the pandemic. This or February. Whereas I think some other places may have seen their worst in November and December (maybe?)

SI

rjolley 01-07-2021 05:44 PM

Ok, makes sense. I forget sometimes not everyone is as bad off as CA.

Carry on.

JediKooter 01-07-2021 05:53 PM

I'm in San Diego and it looks like we are the lucky county with the new strain and my not so smart step son was exposed to someone with covid this past weekend. I just can't anymore with him.

JPhillips 01-07-2021 06:26 PM

My daughter today: Can I go to the diner for a birthday party?

No.

Brian Swartz 01-07-2021 06:28 PM

As bad as the more contagious strain sounds, it's likely to also be less lethal than the other ones since as has been discussed many times on here, that's generally how these things work. Do we have any data on that yet for this strain specifically?

I'm thinking it's way too early to really know, but just wondering if others have more info than me.

sterlingice 01-07-2021 06:33 PM

I can't seem to pin down that answer either

SI

GrantDawg 01-07-2021 06:44 PM

Good friend just got diagnosed. He has fever and body aches. He is a big boy like me, so it is a bit of worry.

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tarcone 01-07-2021 08:12 PM

My boss told me today that her 27 year healthy nephew had inflammation of his heart then a heart attack and then a stint put in because of blockage of half his heart, all related to covid.

whomario 01-08-2021 02:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3321944)
As bad as the more contagious strain sounds, it's likely to also be less lethal than the other ones since as has been discussed many times on here, that's generally how these things work. Do we have any data on that yet for this strain specifically?

I'm thinking it's way too early to really know, but just wondering if others have more info than me.


Fact with this strain/these strains: none of the mutatations are in areas of the genome associated with severity/how it replicates in the organism. So neither more nor less severe is expected on this front.

The reason you read in articles stuff like "so far no empirical evidence of higher severity" (not lower as an option) is that there is a possible/likely mechanisms (hard to proove in humans though obviously) where initial viral load and severity are connected. And that's sth that is definitely a reasonable concern here along with increased efficiency in 'docking' to a new host via ACE Receptors.

Overall it's playing russian roulette hoping the inevitable relevant mutations (there thousands of irelevant ones*) that get more and more likely with increased spread turn out to be a net positive. Especially with vaccines being administered right now.

* Just for clarity: Mutations are all random. It's simply the internal 'proofreading' mechanism (which this virus has, unlike say influenza or hiv) messing up during replication of the viral RNA. So the more often a new person gets infected, especially many in a short time from the same source, the more mistakes happen. There's no direct mechanism where it mutates to be more transmissable and less deadly unless by pure chance both things are caused during the same screwup of the proofreading. Or one happens, then the other in a subsequent host (again, chance). The latter is one that is most likely, if it happens often enough or gets enough lucky breaks (say it's just transmissable enough to spread during periods where others almost or wholly disapear (say in spring + vaccines) to then be the dominant one come the next autumn.
But that'd be a regional thing at first.

The whole "what is good for the virus" comes afterwards from evolutionary pressure and simply chance ("founder effect") which variant gets the jump. This particular virus already has many features that make "less deadly" not especially advantagous. 1) it has a very wide range of outcomes, includingba comparatively high amount of asymptomatic and very mildly symptomatic hosts, 2) it has a comparatively long incubation period and high viral load even before symptoms and the first day where even those getting very sick and dying have ample time to still spread it.
So it would not be sth that happens due to 1 mutation, at best sth that happens over a longish time due to many mutations. More spread however gives a direct and immediate advantage in a situation where R of other variants under current measures hover around or even under 1 and this suddenly is 1,5 or sth under the same constraints.

Edward64 01-08-2021 05:34 AM

Definitely kudos to Israel for being on the ball (like the US should be). But 9.3M people ain't that big of a deal IMO. Yeah, it's all relative but end of March for 9.3M people actually seems slow to me.

But regardless, good job.

https://www.cnn.com/webview/world/li...6b33c1053d005a
Quote:

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he needs just 12 more weeks to vaccinate the entire country, after reaching an agreement with Pfizer that will speed up deliveries into Israel of the US company’s coronavirus vaccine.

"We will be the first country to emerge from the coronavirus. The agreement I reached with Pfizer allows us to vaccinate all Israeli citizens over the age of 16 by the end of March, and perhaps even before that. In other words, we will vaccinate the entire population; anyone who wants to be vaccinated, will be," he said in a televised statement Thursday evening.

Israel is home to nearly 9.3 million people, according to Israeli government data.

whomario 01-08-2021 06:03 AM

With how complex it is to ship, store and prepare the BionTech Vaccine ? Which can only be given at central Locations or via delivery by schooled teams ? Yeah, it kinda is. Especially given it is 1 country with a proportionate number of available personell. 9 of 330 mio might be slow. 9 of 9 is a whole different beast. More like a US state doing it's whole Population with no outside help. Not 50 states with their respective ressources splitting 9 between them for 2.5% of each states Population ;)

But note the qualifiers: 1) no children and 2) "everybody who wants to" which will ultimately mean it is closer to 5-6. But that would still be an impressive feat of Public Health Logistics.
Plus they might go the 1 dose route, about which there are fierce debates among Scientists and medical professionals/PH officials. It might actually make sense if you can do most 'older' (say above 60-65), of which Israel has a much lower share than the US, very soon , get to summer and then have everybody get a 2nd shot. But if you can't go that fast (you also simply need the doses) ...

I' ll be shocked if they actually manage that.

Edit:28% in Israel are under 14 (could not quickly find it for 16 which is the cutoff for BionTech), only 10% over 65. US at 18,5 u14, 16 over 65.

Brian Swartz 01-08-2021 09:14 AM

Agreed, you can't just say '9M isn't that much' when it's their whole country. The %, not the raw number, is a more useful comparison (assuming you have sufficient supply in both cases).

Edward64 01-08-2021 12:12 PM

It is essentially same as UK approach of giving everyone their first shot and don't worry about 2nd shot because (1) first shot will help "some" and (2) assume manufacturers have the next "rolling" supply of 2nd shots ready in X weeks and (3) if the 2nd shots are not ready in X weeks, there will still be some benefit from the first shot.

Fauci was against the UK approach so not sure what he thinks of this. Thanks UK for thinking outside the box.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/08/polit...egy/index.html
Quote:

President-elect Joe Biden will aim to release nearly every available dose of the coronavirus vaccine when he takes office, a break with the Trump administration's strategy of holding back half of US vaccine production to ensure second doses are available.

Releasing nearly all vaccine doses on hand could quickly ratchet up the availability of coronavirus vaccines by allowing more people access to a first dose. It could also be a risky strategy as both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna's vaccines require two doses, administered at specific intervals, and vaccine manufacturing has not ramped up as rapidly as many experts had hoped.

"The President-elect believes we must accelerate distribution of the vaccine while continuing to ensure the Americans who need it most get it as soon as possible. He supports releasing available doses immediately, and believes the government should stop holding back vaccine supply so we can get more shots in Americans' arms now," said TJ Ducklo, a spokesman for Biden's transition. "He will share additional details next week on how his Administration will begin releasing available doses when he assumes office on January 20th."

A transition official said the Biden team believes that vaccine manufacturers will be able to produce enough second doses in a timely fashion while administering first doses to more Americans. Biden's team plans to use the Defense Production Act to produce vaccine materials and other supplies in order to ensure there's enough vaccine for both doses.

JPhillips 01-08-2021 12:28 PM

They still need much better organization to administer all the vaccine that is delivered. We're now throwing away vaccine and it's criminal.

Lathum 01-08-2021 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3322164)
They still need much better organization to administer all the vaccine that is delivered. We're now throwing away vaccine and it's criminal.


Hows your Mom doing?

JPhillips 01-08-2021 12:32 PM

Much better than I expected. We spoke via Zoom twice this week. On Monday she was prone and not very responsive, but she didn't seem to have any difficulty breathing and there was no coughing. On Thursday she was laying on her back and looked better. She was a bit more responsive and even smiled once. She's still 86 and has other health problems, and I know this disease often leaves people looking well until the moment they are in crisis, but at the moment things are much better than I had feared.

Thanks for asking.

Lathum 01-08-2021 12:33 PM

Thats great to hear

sterlingice 01-08-2021 12:45 PM

I saw the news about the 1 dose vs 2 dose thing and, sadly, here was my first thought. Wow: a legit policy decision where rational adults from 2 administrations can respectfully disagree about what is legitimately the right way to handle a complex problem that doesn't have a simple answer. As opposed to the usual "MASKS ARE TYRRANY" or "I WON'T TAKE A VACCINE BECAUSE I MIGHT GET 5G COOTIES!" that we've seen so much of the past year.

SI

Edward64 01-08-2021 01:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sterlingice (Post 3322175)
I saw the news about the 1 dose vs 2 dose thing and, sadly, here was my first thought. Wow: a legit policy decision where rational adults from 2 administrations can respectfully disagree about what is legitimately the right way to handle a complex problem that doesn't have a simple answer. As opposed to the usual "MASKS ARE TYRRANY" or "I WON'T TAKE A VACCINE BECAUSE I MIGHT GET 5G COOTIES!" that we've seen so much of the past year.

SI


Absolutely agree. It will be great to have an adult in the room asking people to assess & figure things out methodically vs an irrational narcissist who refuses to concede he is mistaken.

It's like "good people can agree to disagree" :) but at least let's have the conversation.

Edward64 01-08-2021 01:20 PM

Went to the dentist for 2 fillings (yay, nothing left on the treatment plan other than cleanings). Spoke to office manager (wife of Dentist) on the way out.

Wife: will you take the vaccine?
Me: yes, would not want to be first but will take it after the first batch
Wife: we have our vaccinations next week
Me: that is great
Wife: but 5 of us don't want to take it
Me: why?
Wife: don't you think they developed it too fast?
Me: yes and they probably left out some test groups and they really couldn't test for long term impact. But approx 2M people have been vaccinated, we haven't heard of any widespread problems and zombie apocalypse hasn't happened ..
Wife: do you want my shot?
Me: absolutely, if its legal

So we have 5 people (out of maybe 10) that work in a Dentist office that prefer not to take shots now. They aren't idiots. The wife is definitely not a Trump supporter.

A little disappointed that healthcare professionals (and those that work in healthcare setting) would not want to take the shots. Seems like what's being reported though so no big surprise.

molson 01-08-2021 01:35 PM

It seems like whatever demographic you can come up with, somewhere around 30-50% don't want the vaccine. Even health-care providers. Part of the slow rollout is a certain number of vaccines are allocated for a certain hospital or nursing home, and then only half of them want it, and there's not a backup plan for the rest. I know in my state they're trying to figure out how to estimate for that now, and ways to move everybody else up the line.

Europe seems like they're reluctant too. I keep reading the same % of people don't want to take it. It's a somewhat different philosophy of anti-vaccer than we have in the U.S, but it's very pronounced there too. And Europe also failed on acquiring vaccines, and betting early on a vaccine that didn't work out. The U.S. and U.K. have vaccinated close to 2% of their populations, other European countries are way below that, and a bunch haven't started yet. France is 0.07%, Norway is .21%, Austria .07%, etc. It's been sluggish in the U.S, but hopefully we see really benefits by the late spring. For the rest of the world, I don't know what the timeline is.

Atocep 01-08-2021 01:36 PM

I know people at work that have been hesitant to get it, but no one that's outright refused it. I'm sure there are quite a few I just don't know.

I do have a friend whose wife works at Tacoma General, though, and they've had several nurses refuse the shot and a group of them got together outside of work and 12 of them ended up testing positive for COVID last week.

Edward64 01-08-2021 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by molson (Post 3322193)
The U.S. and U.K. have vaccinated close to 2% of their populations, other European countries are way below that, and a bunch haven't started yet. France is 0.07%, Norway is .21%, Austria .07%, etc. It's been sluggish in the U.S, but hopefully we see really benefits by the late spring. For the rest of the world, I don't know what the timeline is.


Is there a website that tracks these %?

molson 01-08-2021 01:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3322202)
Is there a website that tracks these %?


This is the best one I've found. States and countries vary on how quickly they update their info (and those dates are on there), but those updates seem to be getting more regular as we go.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

AlexB 01-08-2021 02:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by molson (Post 3322193)
It seems like whatever demographic you can come up with, somewhere around 30-50% don't want the vaccine. Even health-care providers. Part of the slow rollout is a certain number of vaccines are allocated for a certain hospital or nursing home, and then only half of them want it, and there's not a backup plan for the rest. I know in my state they're trying to figure out how to estimate for that now, and ways to move everybody else up the line.

Europe seems like they're reluctant too. I keep reading the same % of people don't want to take it. It's a somewhat different philosophy of anti-vaccer than we have in the U.S, but it's very pronounced there too. And Europe also failed on acquiring vaccines, and betting early on a vaccine that didn't work out. The U.S. and U.K. have vaccinated close to 2% of their populations, other European countries are way below that, and a bunch haven't started yet. France is 0.07%, Norway is .21%, Austria .07%, etc. It's been sluggish in the U.S, but hopefully we see really benefits by the late spring. For the rest of the world, I don't know what the timeline is.


It’s being reported there’s an 85% take up here. I expect that may go down as we get to the younger and less vulnerable, but 85% is a decent number

whomario 01-08-2021 07:04 PM

A big monthly survey in Germany had those wanting to definitely or likely get a vaccine jump by like 15 points this round, very encouraging and a sign that transparent messaging has gotten through. Plus of course a new sense of urgency due to it spiraling here ...

Hope the studys regarding asymptomatic infection with vaccine/placebo (meaning possibly still able to transmit) bring good results, should be getting that done soonish ...

miami_fan 01-08-2021 08:29 PM

I suspect the number of people who change their minds from a no to a maybe to a yes with go continue to rise with time. I know I am ready whenever they call me. My wife not so much mostly because she has allergies and the advice at the moment is not to take it. She has made it perfectly when she can take it she will. I get those that are reluctant to take it though.

Edward64 01-08-2021 08:36 PM

I don't know if y'all know this already, if not consider it a PSA.

In GA, I found my county website to make an appt.

https://forms.office.com/Pages/Respo...dBWUpYNlpHWi4u

District 2 Public Health – Prevent. Protect. Promote.

You can see it tells you what population is eligible to make the appt. Currently at

Quote:

This vaccination request form is for any person who works or resides in District 2 and is currently within an eligible category to receive the vaccine:
- Healthcare workers in clinical settings (e.g nurses, physicians, EMS, laboratory technicians, environmental services)
- Staff and residents of long-term care facilities
- All law enforcement and fire personnel (including volunteer departments)
- Adults aged 65 and older (and their caregivers as applicable

We appreciate your patience and ask that if there are no appointments available for the day that you wish to schedule an appointment, to please continue checking back as availability is subject to change.

Basically, I think its up to the individual to monitor the website and check when one is eligible and then sign up. I'm guessing there is a similar website for your counties.

cartman 01-08-2021 08:55 PM

New Zealand's Average Mortality Is Actually Lower Than Normal Years

JPhillips 01-08-2021 08:58 PM

Obviously needs follow-up, but every bit helps.

Quote:

Treating critically ill COVID-19 patients with Roche's Actemra or Sanofi's Kevzara arthritis drugs significantly improves survival rates and reduces the amount of time patients need intensive care, study results showed on Thursday.

The findings, which have not yet been peer-reviewed, showed that the immunosuppressive drugs - Actemra, also known as tocilizumab, and Kevzara, also known as sarilumab - reduced death rates by 8. 5 percentage points among patients hospitalised and severely ill with the pandemic disease



Ghost Econ 01-08-2021 09:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cartman (Post 3322373)


Well, that can't be right because facebook people have told me lockdowns literally killed millions and no one can die from COVID.

miked 01-08-2021 10:09 PM

At my places of business, doctors and nurses are hovering near 100%. I got my Moderna 1st dose and I overheard a very high compliance number.

Amazingly, I was reading that Northeast GA for some reason has 2x as many doses as Dekalb County (one of the largest counties in GA) and has dispensed a few hundred out of 12,000 possible doses. From my trips up to Blue Ridge, I think we are looking at around 50-70% of people who will not take the vaccine, though at their current rate in the country counties, they will have that many infected in the next few weeks/months.

Atocep 01-08-2021 10:30 PM

I got dose 2 today as it was the first day dose 2 was available to general staff at our hospital. As of 1pm when I got mine they said they had 200 people so far today.

My wife got her 1st dose through her dental clinic today. They were originally supposed to get it Wednesday but it fell through. She said 2 people she works with weren't going to get it on Wednesday but had changed their minds by today.

whomario 01-09-2021 04:00 AM

@miami fan: 'Boilerplate' allergies ? Not sure about the US, but over here those are cleared without resrvation. There also were no elevated adverse effects in the studies on people with allergies. The incidents reported upon start of the campaigns were people with really severe allergy, most of them routinely having them with medications in general.
Of course, your wife might fall into that category but thought i'd mention it in case she's merely having some run off the mill allergies to pollen or dust or sth.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ (Post 3322378)
Well, that can't be right because facebook people have told me lockdowns literally killed millions and no one can die from COVID.


They are still trying. Example "NZs net mortality was actually the highest ever and XXX higher than 20 years ago". Which is 'true' but also trivial: That metric goes up in almost all countries due to the population aging and in NZ this year went up by the same proportion as prior years.
Example 2: "Covid is just replacing other pneumonia/Influenza/coronavirus deaths and illnesses"

I explicitly don't want to minimise the risk of f.e. deferred treatment or the destructive potential of unemployment or poverty. But neither of those is averted simply by keeping "the economy" open by decree. There is also plenty of solid analysis that dealing well with the Covid side of things has been better for the economy as well. And hell, does anybody think there would be less deferal of treatment if you just let er rip ? I mean, have people seen the videos of california hospitals ?
Or even Latin America where by necessity (them not being the richest countries on earth and all that) where in many places people are dying at almost 3 times the normal rate. 3 times !!! Mexico City usually averages 1600 a day early december, this year 4400 and still rapidly climbing at the cutoff for the statistic. (Over the course of the entire period from march it is a 97% increase, the whole country of Peru registered 2x normal deaths for the whole year which still includes 3 months without significant spread). I'd not want to be sick/injured from anything in a place with uncontrolled rampant Covid19 spread.

miami_fan 01-09-2021 07:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by whomario (Post 3322464)
@miami fan: 'Boilerplate' allergies ? Not sure about the US, but over here those are cleared without resrvation. There also were no elevated adverse effects in the studies on people with allergies. The incidents reported upon start of the campaigns were people with really severe allergy, most of them routinely having them with medications in general.
Of course, your wife might fall into that category but thought i'd mention it in case she's merely having some run off the mill allergies to pollen or dust or sth.


When she got her first allergy test on base after we got married, she said that the doctor brought in five other doctors because they had never seen anyone test positive in all seven categories of allergies lol. She controls it with meds and levels of exposure so she not living on a knife's edge because of them. She should be next up for the vaccination as she is a school teacher. She is approaching it in a sensible manner. She trust that her PCM who has a bit of history with her health history won't give her a vaccine that will do her harm. At the end of the day, isn't that what we are all doing with all medical care?

Edward64 01-09-2021 09:19 AM

Watched the first episode of The Stand.

A little too close to home with the super flu. Funny thing, as I was watching the early days of the super flu, my head was saying "why isn't anyone wearing a mask or practicing social distancing. Totally unrealistic"

Yeah, the Stand was written back in late 70s, early 80s and the episodes were probably filmed before the coronavirus. But still ...

sterlingice 01-09-2021 07:48 PM

Meanwhile, in Texas

Austin can prohibit late on-site dining over holiday weekend, judge rules | The Texas Tribune

Austin puts into effect a restaurant curfew from 10:30-6. You can get curbside, carry-out, drive-thru, and delivery but no dine-in. They're sued by the the Texas Attorney General (Ken Paxton) and lose in court.

But now there's this headline: "Greg Abbott and Ken Paxton tell Austin restaurants to defy COVID-19 order banning overnight dine-in services".

So, the governor and state AG are telling business owners to overrule a court ruling because they don't like the local statute.

SI

JPhillips 01-09-2021 07:52 PM

And so more people can catch a potentially deadly illness.

miked 01-10-2021 08:08 AM

Party of law and order.

albionmoonlight 01-10-2021 08:29 AM

A lot of actions make sense when you realize that Republicans do not consider Democrats legitimate.

bob 01-10-2021 07:58 PM

Just curious- are any of you planning anything for the summer yet, or do you think vaccine distribution will still not be sufficient yet?

henry296 01-10-2021 08:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bob (Post 3322811)
Just curious- are any of you planning anything for the summer yet, or do you think vaccine distribution will still not be sufficient yet?


Just booked a beach house as a back-up plan. We are hoping to take a trip that we had to postpone from this past April.

Lathum 01-10-2021 08:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bob (Post 3322811)
Just curious- are any of you planning anything for the summer yet, or do you think vaccine distribution will still not be sufficient yet?


I was just going to post about this.

We go to Nantucket for 2 weeks every summer, went last year and will be going again this year. Was a little different last year but not terrible.

The one we are struggling with is our 2 best friend couples from when we lived in Ohio are going to Daufuskie island, SC, for spring break at the end of March with their kids, etc. I am really on the fence about it. Would be fun, each family would have their own cottage and the island seems quaint. We have all vacationed together before and have always had a great time. The problem is having to quarantine when we get back and not be able to send the kids to school for 2 weeks or whatever. We know the right decision is to not go, but we really want to.

Edward64 01-10-2021 08:16 PM

My guess is majority of country will have at least the first shot by summer, especially since Biden is focused on first shot and not saving second shot in reserve.

The second shot by summer is questionable but assume first shot will continue to help prevent or reduce severity.

So yeah, definitely planning for the summer. In a perfect world, would like to go overseas (Portugal or possibly China) but who knows. Plan B is Orlando Galaxy's Edge. Haven't spoken to missus yet though and a lot is dependent on other countries.

rjolley 01-10-2021 08:19 PM

We had a big trip planned for the summer to Chicago and Atlanta, but we've pushed it off a year. Still a bit too sketchy on whether it would be good to make the trip then. We do plan to have family here for the holidays in December.

sterlingice 01-10-2021 08:25 PM

I think there's a bit of a risk of mutation scrambling things again so I'm going to wait a couple of months before making summer plans.

That said, if it's safe-ish, prices are likely to be sky high this summer as everyone will want to get away.

SI

miami_fan 01-10-2021 08:43 PM

I feel the opposite of the pessimism that I felt leading into last summer. The planning for vacations has begun. We have not made any financial commitments yet, but it is not like leading into last summer where all plans were cancelled and money was refunded by March 15th.

molson 01-10-2021 11:44 PM

I booked a few flights this weekend, and plan on booking a few more in the next few weeks. Prices are low, there's cheap miles redemption opportunities, I have some companion fares from last year that got extended, and everything can be moved without fees if needed. We'll book hotels a few months from now of things are looking do-able.

We're hoping to go to Alaska in May and Boston in June. I've been trying to get back to Juneau and southeast alaska since I had a legal internship there over the summer 15 years ago. Seems like a great time to beat the cruise ships back. And of course I haven't seen any family in the northeast in a long time. Then I'm looking at Costa Rica in the fall, and our cancelled Denmark/Estonia trip in the early spring 2022. And hopefully a Vegas weekend somewhere in there too. All with points, credits from cancelled trips, or companion fares. I have a lot of vacation time to burn, and our workload should be low with so few trials occuring in 2020. (And then shit will hit the fan again in 2022 after the system hopefully churns back to life in 2021, so I have a window here).

Edward64 01-11-2021 08:38 AM

Some good news ... not yet peer reviewed but first article re: additional research done against the UK (and SA) variants.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/11/covi...w-strains.html
Quote:

The CEO of German pharmaceutical company BioNTech has said he remains confident the company’s Covid vaccine, developed in partnership with Pfizer, will be effective against the highly-infectious variants of the virus discovered in the U.K. and South Africa.
:
His comments referred to research published Thursday that showed Pfizer-BioNTech’s Covid-19 vaccine appeared to be effective against a key mutation in the more infectious variants of the virus discovered in the U.K. and South Africa.

The study, conducted by U.S. pharma giant Pfizer and not yet peer-reviewed, suggested the vaccine worked to neutralize the so-called N501Y mutation. This mutation has been reported in the coronavirus variants discovered in the U.K. and South Africa.

Thomkal 01-11-2021 04:00 PM

Good news here in SC-they have accelerated when people 70 years and older (like my 83 year old mom) can make appointments to start getting the vaccines to later this week.

molson 01-11-2021 04:23 PM

I got an email from the medical group that was doing all the testing and antibody testing when this first broke out, and they told me they'll email me when I'm eligible for a vaccine through them, which they estimate will be in May. My girlfriend is in the category for February, but she doesn't know how or with who that will go down.

This group, affiliated with a hospital and funded by an Idaho billionaire a while back, was very efficient churning out tests in the early days of this, it sounds like they'll be able to convert to drive-up vaccinations, which is cool. I have no idea how they assembled a team of staff and volunteers so quickly then (not just the people giving the tests, but people coordinating staffing, intake, setting up and putting down the whole setup, etc), but I'm glad they're able do it.

Ghost Econ 01-11-2021 05:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thomkal (Post 3322963)
Good news here in SC-they have accelerated when people 70 years and older (like my 83 year old mom) can make appointments to start getting the vaccines to later this week.


FYI, doctor's offices don't have them. They've applied for the ability to receive and give vaccines, but they're in a DHEC hell. My wife's office has a brand new, $6k freezer sitting there waiting for DHEC to get off their ass.

Only options are hospitals.

JPhillips 01-11-2021 05:51 PM

My mother may get out of isolation later this week. Remarkably, she hasn't had any symptoms other than a slight cough that has gone away. Hopefully, she's beaten COVID.

Lathum 01-11-2021 05:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3322990)
My mother may get out of isolation later this week. Remarkably, she hasn't had any symptoms other than a slight cough that has gone away. Hopefully, she's beaten COVID.


Wonderful news!

thesloppy 01-11-2021 06:06 PM

:thumbsup: noice!

sterlingice 01-11-2021 07:06 PM

Good deal

SI

GrantDawg 01-11-2021 07:40 PM

Fantastic Jphillip!

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Thomkal 01-11-2021 08:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ (Post 3322980)
FYI, doctor's offices don't have them. They've applied for the ability to receive and give vaccines, but they're in a DHEC hell. My wife's office has a brand new, $6k freezer sitting there waiting for DHEC to get off their ass.

Only options are hospitals.


This is the first time I've looked at getting the vaccine for my mom, so just going on what the announcement said-along with DHEC, Doctor's Care clinics would have them, and Tidelands which has been opening places here in Myrtle like crazy this year has said they will be open for appointments too-are the vaccines for all of them coming from DHEC?

Thomkal 01-11-2021 08:01 PM

Yay JP!

JPhillips 01-11-2021 09:22 PM

The head of the FL GOP is scheduled to speak at an anti-vax rally.

CrimsonFox 01-11-2021 11:12 PM

'We did something right here': Seahawks finish season as only NFL team without a positive

CrimsonFox 01-11-2021 11:19 PM

btw I'm told it was a year ago today that the first Coronavirus death occurred.

what an anniversary

Butter 01-12-2021 05:48 AM

I'm fine that a bunch of people don't want the vaccine... means I'mma get it sooner.

Edward64 01-12-2021 05:45 PM

Specific to my county, my wife is Phase 1b, and kids & me are Phase 2.

Apparently the expectation is for you to check the website. So much better if they ask for your email/text so they can let you know when your "phase" comes up. Do your counties have better signup/notification capabilities?

Quote:

Phase 1-B

People who play a key role in keeping essential functions of society running, including:
Critical workforce employees (e.g., educational faculty and staff, court employees, nuclear power plant employees, air traffic controllers, food processing, grocery workers, transportation, etc.)
Quote:

Phase 2

Individuals in homeless shelters
Individuals in congregate settings (e.g. homeless shelters, dormitories, group homes)
Individuals in jails, prisons, detention centers
Other people living in congregate settings
All adults between the ages of 41-64-years-old

Edward64 01-12-2021 06:40 PM

Not great news re: first shot only vs plus second shot efficacy.

I am supportive of giving out as many first shots as possible even with the risk that the supply chain of the second shot may not ramp up enough/in time for the second shot in +3 or +4 weeks.

This was under the assumption that first shot only would give good efficacy. Apparently it drops the 94-95% efficacy down to 50-52% efficacy if only the first shot is received. Not sure what I think of the "Biden option" right now.

The CDC Just Gave a Shocking COVID Vaccine Update
Quote:

The CDC emphasizes that it's important to get the second shot after the primary injection to achieve the best results. "Both COVID-19 mRNA vaccines will need 2 shots to get the most protection," the CDC states.

If you only get the first shot, your vaccine is just over 50 percent effective. According to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the Moderna vaccine is 50.8 percent effective after the first dose, and the Pfizer shot is 52.4 percent after the first dose.

JPhillips 01-12-2021 06:42 PM

It's no longer the Biden option. Azar announced that it starts now.


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