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-   -   Werewolf IX: Village of the Damned (http://forums.operationsports.com/fofc//showthread.php?t=41106)

Blade6119 08-10-2005 08:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RealDeal
Dola,

No point in making Fouts a target. Tonight he's either going to be dead or exonerated.


Unless the person i sent the potion to is going to use it...i hope he doesnt, but its possible since the potion doesnt reveal roles

Poli 08-10-2005 08:35 PM

My circle includes noone but the Hammer guy, and that's only if the mask is destroyed tonight.

Raiders Army 08-10-2005 08:37 PM

Going to bed. Tired of hearing of Meet the Parents here. Again, I have my silver bullets beside me...

Poli 08-10-2005 08:37 PM

Oh, and by the way, it's time to pass on another handy dandy item to my hammer buddy.

Raiders Army 08-10-2005 08:37 PM

inside my gun.

kingfc22 08-10-2005 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fouts
This tells me Henry is in the clear. He broke the tie that killed the sorceror while digamma and jeff (both evil) wanted a tie.

Right now I only trust the following people: BrianD, Henry and myself.


This point means nothing. The wolves have NO CLUE who the sorcerer's are. Seems very odd that you are trying to protect a potential wolf, especially since digamma said he was going to PM henry...

Fouts 08-10-2005 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blade6119
Unless the person i sent the potion to is going to use it...i hope he doesnt, but its possible since the potion doesnt reveal roles


You badly want villagers dead, for some reason.

Fouts 08-10-2005 08:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kingfc22
This point means nothing. The wolves have NO CLUE who the sorcerer's are. Seems very odd that you are trying to protect a potential wolf, especially since digamma said he was going to PM henry...


Read my second post, since people didn't understand the first one. The evil guys wanted a tie (including digamma), so why would a wolf break a tie and expose himself?

Fouts 08-10-2005 08:45 PM

Some of you guys are either wolves, or working real hard to help them. It boggles the mind. How about coming up with some clues rather than trying to squash any clues that are brought up?

hoopsguy 08-10-2005 08:46 PM

Current Score:
Villagers 15
Wolves 2

They kill tonight, so it goes to 14-2
If Fouts the villager dies tonight we are down to 13-2
If Fouts the wolf dies tonight it is 14-1
If Fouts lives by way of potion, there is going to be some serious suspicion tomorrow.

That is why I really hope you (Fouts) live by the Ointment and the Ointment alone. The Potion may only end up keeping you alive one more day, even if you are a villager :(

BrianD 08-10-2005 08:49 PM

Hoopsguy, why in your PMs with Digamma were you offering advice on how he should defend himself. If I called him out and he told you that he didn't have a mask, you should have been very suspicious of him. I'm not comfortable with the fact that you tried to help him with no suspicion at all.

Blade6119 08-10-2005 08:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy
Current Score:
Villagers 15
Wolves 2

They kill tonight, so it goes to 14-2
If Fouts the villager dies tonight we are down to 13-2
If Fouts the wolf dies tonight it is 14-1
If Fouts lives by way of potion, there is going to be some serious suspicion tomorrow.

That is why I really hope you (Fouts) live by the Ointment and the Ointment alone. The Potion may only end up keeping you alive one more day, even if you are a villager :(


If hes saved by the potion tonight, ill announce who i passed it to and he can be thrown under the spotlight...but remeber its not an expensive item and someone could have bought it last night

henry296 08-10-2005 08:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fouts
Cloak of Whispers (2) – [Cloak] The owner of the Cloak may designate one other player to have unlimited PM rights with for one day.

Hmm, a CC to Peregrine isn't unlimited.


Peregrine has asked me to CC him on my PMs although I have forgotten to a bunch of team since the PM function doesn't have a reply to all.

Fouts 08-10-2005 08:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy
Current Score:
Villagers 15
Wolves 2

They kill tonight, so it goes to 14-2
If Fouts the villager dies tonight we are down to 13-2
If Fouts the wolf dies tonight it is 14-1
If Fouts lives by way of potion, there is going to be some serious suspicion tomorrow.

That is why I really hope you (Fouts) live by the Ointment and the Ointment alone. The Potion may only end up keeping you alive one more day, even if you are a villager :(


The problem is... there is no guarantee that the ointment exists. So telling the guy with the potion not to use it, effectively kills me. I think it is pretty obvious I am a villager, but I realize trust is only gained once you die.

No problem, see you all in the next game.

hoopsguy 08-10-2005 08:54 PM

I'm pretty sure I've cut my credibility way down this game after supporting Digamma, but in the spirit of generating clues (as requested by Fouts):

1.) We have seen very, very little of Schmidty and MrBug in this game. Eagles has also been very close to the vest. Quiet would seem like optimal wolf qualities at this time, given the villager/wolf ratio. Let blabbermouths like me generate the distrust among villagers and defend the wolves. Second tier of quiet guys includes Mr. Wednesday, Kingfc, and Coffee Warlord - they have posted a few times, but I can't recall anything remotely controversial from any of these guys.
2.) I think Vince is innocent, but not enough to bump up into the Circle of Trust. He had questions about purchasing items earlier that indicated he was not in the know about this. I find it hard to believe that a wolf, collaborating with two other wolves, would not know this. If it is a trap, then nicely laid I suppose ...
3.) If Real is telling the truth about holding onto the Coat of Arms the first two days I would urge him to consider passing it now that he has outed himself. The wolves know who the wolves are and that there are a limited number of items that can defeat them. Having them know where one of those items is makes it more likely that a villager dies during the night. The other side of this is that you could inadvertantly pass it to a wolf - choose wisely if you do move it.

I would love to hear what other people are thinking. Since we can't PM with the other villagers, failing to chime in from time to time makes it that much harder to form any kind of impression.

Blade6119 08-10-2005 08:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fouts
Some of you guys are either wolves, or working real hard to help them. It boggles the mind. How about coming up with some clues rather than trying to squash any clues that are brought up?


I posted evidence on my target for the first few days(realdeal) quite repetively with only dubb noticing it(he agreed, and is conveniently now dead)...if the only other person to accuse the guy i accused is now dead by night action, im hesitent to act...

hoopsguy 08-10-2005 09:00 PM

Brian, I'll try to replay my thought process over again, realizing that I'm working backwards now with knowledge I now possess.

1.) I saw that he was accused. I wanted to get the Mask/No Mask thing out in the open as quickly as possible.
2.) It struck me that a wolf would always say he had the mask at some point - which is why in the PM I indicated 'I wish you had said something earlier'
3.) When he said he didn't have the mask at any point - again, a surprising tactic (to me) for a werewolf to take it pretty much made one of you a werewolf
4.) Once I considered how I would play as a werewolf, and that I would not even think holding onto a one-shot cloak for two days, I didn't think he was the wolf
5.) Since I thought you were the wolf (sorry again about this) I then tried to assist him
6.) Some lingering guilt about how we played out the Lathum thing yesterday played a role at some level

That is about all I can offer on this topic. I'll try to expand on any additional questions you might have. I've tried to provide as much value to the villagers here as I possibly can - especially in light of the fact that I screwed the pooch so badly on this one.

Poli 08-10-2005 09:01 PM

I'm kind of waiting to see what my hammer man does. Guys, feel free to pass items on to me, the wolves haven't figured it out yet.

Poli 08-10-2005 09:04 PM

My circle of trust has just expanded...to the moderator.

RealDeal 08-10-2005 09:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blade6119
I posted evidence on my target for the first few days(realdeal) quite repetively with only dubb noticing it(he agreed, and is conveniently now dead)...if the only other person to accuse the guy i accused is now dead by night action, im hesitent to act...


Blade, misunderstanding a hint I was trying to drop to you about my item is not evidence. Hell, before Digamma was accused of being a wolf, he was trying to frame me. I'm beginning to think that you're dumb like a fox.

Hoops, I agree with you about the coat. I don't want to say too much because I want to keep the wolves guessing, but I agree with your point.

hoopsguy 08-10-2005 09:07 PM

Yep, not telling you to pass it - just indicating what you did now should at least put some guesswork back into the process for them.

Poli 08-10-2005 10:04 PM

It was quiet, too quiet.

MrBug708 08-10-2005 10:12 PM

Looks like whoever had the Ring of Wisdom knew what they were talking about.

Mr. Wednesday 08-10-2005 10:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy
Those are the timestamps I have on messages. My time right now for your post (#679) shows Today 12:38 AM.

If you're actually in Chicago, you need to fix your board time zone setting. :p

MrBug708 08-10-2005 10:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy
I'm pretty sure I've cut my credibility way down this game after supporting Digamma, but in the spirit of generating clues (as requested by Fouts):

1.) We have seen very, very little of Schmidty and MrBug in this game.


For someone who just supported a wolf publicly, you seem awful eager to start a bandwagon early. I posted that I'd be gone til after the vote and while I don't have much analysis to offer I've still been active enough to read what's going on.

Mr. Wednesday 08-10-2005 10:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fouts
This tells me Henry is in the clear. He broke the tie that killed the sorceror while digamma and jeff (both evil) wanted a tie.

Remember, the wolves did not know who the sorcerors were, nor vice versa.

Mr. Wednesday 08-10-2005 10:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy
Second tier of quiet guys includes Mr. Wednesday, Kingfc, and Coffee Warlord - they have posted a few times, but I can't recall anything remotely controversial from any of these guys.

I have no insight whatsoever, the only item I held was the tablet, which was passed to Lathum with a message of little import. Realistically, we've had very little to go on until the Digamma vote, and even that one picked up steam quickly enough that I would think the wolves would have gone for the "lynch" side.

digamma 08-10-2005 10:40 PM

Oh well. Not a lot you can do when a seer gets you this early in the game.

Vince 08-11-2005 02:37 AM

digamma -- for what it's worth, I think you played it about as perfectly as you could have. If I didn't consider the strategy behind BrianD, I would have thought you were innocent...the non-use of the Mask defense was quite a powerful ploy, I thought.

Vince 08-11-2005 03:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy
I'm pretty sure I've cut my credibility way down this game after supporting Digamma, but in the spirit of generating clues (as requested by Fouts):

2.) I think Vince is innocent, but not enough to bump up into the Circle of Trust. He had questions about purchasing items earlier that indicated he was not in the know about this. I find it hard to believe that a wolf, collaborating with two other wolves, would not know this. If it is a trap, then nicely laid I suppose ...

Thanks for the thoughts -- the buying items thing was pretty retarded on my part, but the real reason that I overlooked it was because most of the items you listed as 'I would rather have this than the Cloak of Whispers' were items you could not buy, and were not very likely to be passed, ever. Still a pretty ridiculous mistake, and probably quite telling of what sort of item I have.

Currently, what I think...well, there's a lot that I don't know. I am a little concerned about Ardent right now -- I can understand the whole Mask thing, but why is he dead-set on destroying everything? In reference to post # 704 --
Quote:

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast
Oh, and by the way, it's time to pass on another handy dandy item to my hammer buddy.

This isn't much to worry about, because tonight something will (should?) be destroyed, and we will know whether or not the 'smith is on the level. It would also go quite a ways towards clearing Ardent. So though I'm worried about him, it should resolve itself with no effort on our parts.

hoopsguy falls under the BrianD defense -- why in the hell would he so vocally defend digamma if he knew that digamma was a wolf? Terrible, terrible strategy in a game where the wolves are hugely outnumbered. However, "it's crazy enough that it just might work!" I'm not ready to completely clear him because it looks like a stupid move.

Fouts...well, Fouts is a tough one. I'm pretty much sure that he's a villager, but I don't think anyone else agrees with me really. While I want to keep him alive, I think it wouldn't do anything but negatively impact us. What worries me is that when someone uses the ointment on him, THAT PERSON is told what Fouts' role is. We then have to believe the user of the ointment when they tell us what Fouts' role is. If the Ointment is owned by a wolf right now, we're up shit creek without a paddle on Fouts.

BrianD -- he's on the level. What can I say? The guy straight outed a wolf. If he's sacrificing one of his own this early in the game while they're already WAY behind...man, ballsy move. I think it's safe to say he's a good guy.

And everyone else...well, I don't know really anything about them. Last night I had an extremely strong suspicion of SnDvls, but the day's events sort of made me ignore that. He was fairly quiet today if I remember correctly...

I think I'd like to wait a bit more before jumping on the quiet guys like Schmidty and Mr. Bug -- while I think it's a great strategy for the wolves (especially when they're so outnumbered), people do have lives.

Edited to fix an incorrect php tag.

Fouts 08-11-2005 03:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vince
Fouts...well, Fouts is a tough one. I'm pretty much sure that he's a villager, but I don't think anyone else agrees with me really. While I want to keep him alive, I think it wouldn't do anything but negatively impact us. What worries me is that when someone uses the ointment on him, THAT PERSON is told what Fouts' role is. We then have to believe the user of the ointment when they tell us what Fouts' role is. If the Ointment is owned by a wolf right now, we're up shit creek without a paddle on Fouts.

BrianD -- he's on the level. What can I say? The guy straight outed a wolf. If he's sacrificing one of his own this early in the game while they're already WAY behind...man, ballsy move. I think it's safe to say he's a good guy.


What I find funny is that you (and everyone else) will clear Brian, but not myself, when we both did the same thing - put our necks on the line to get a wolf. The only difference is my wolf was actually a sheep in wolves clothing.

We did the same thing, we are both villagers. I fear it is too late.

And how can it negatively impact the villagers if I am alive using items against the wolves???

Peregrine 08-11-2005 03:15 AM

The night is misty and cool, with the smell of fear in the air. Will the villagers be able to find the remaining wolves? They've done well so far, but wolves are notoriously crafty. There is screaming at one point, and in the morning the body of BrianD is found, he was an innocent villager.

Fouts is found alone and dead in his cabin. He was an innocent villager, but the poison claimed his life.

The broken remains of a Mask of Lies were found in the village this morning.

edit - Fouts had three silver pieces on his body, these were distributed at random among the people of the village!

Day 4

Lathum - Lynched Day 2 - villager
kingfc22
sundvls
blade6119
Coffee Warlord
Henry296
BrianD - killed Night 3 - villager
digamma - Lynched Day 3 - werewolf
eaglesfan27
hoopsguy
fouts - Poisoned and died Night 3 - villager
schmidty
dubb93 - killed Night 2 - villager
vince
Qwikshot - Lynched Day 1 - Sorceror
RealDeal
Jeff061 - Killed Night 1 - Sorceror
Raiders Army
Mr. Wednesday
MrBug708
Superman=#54
ardent enthusiast

Lynch votes due by 8 pm eastern.

Fouts 08-11-2005 03:16 AM

Just as I thought, good luck sheep.

Vince 08-11-2005 03:18 AM

Sorry man, but I think you would have been voted off tomorrow or the next day anyways -- and since you were a villager, that wouldn't have gotten us anywhere but allowed the Wolves to go a day without worrying about possibly being lynched.

Raiders Army 08-11-2005 05:04 AM

13-2. While I don't mind the fact that we are winning this thing, and will eventually win it, we just traded 4 humans for 1 wolf. At that rate, only 5 of us will finish this game. I'd like to think that we'd want more to survive in the end, but that's just me. :)

Down to business. Let's think about this for a second. At the point which we killed two sorcerors, the wolves' best strategy would have been to lay low. (Think like a wolf...be the wolf) However, yesterday probably threw a monkey wrench into their plans. When BrianD outed digamma, I would guess that they would scramble to protect their already small number. Let me do a post check analysis. brb

Poli 08-11-2005 05:30 AM

Well, there certainly is a player in my circle of trust now, the hammer man. He should be destroying something tomorrow for us as well.

Raiders Army 08-11-2005 05:34 AM

Take it for what it's worth. I already told you what I believe about the post count activity. Dolaposts and multiple dolaposts only count as one post. If someone interrupted your dola and you responded, I counted both of your posts. This is raw data and doesn't take into account content of posts.

Name: Day 2 posts/Day 3 posts

Ardent: 14/7
Raiders: 13/15
BrianD: 10/9
hoopsguy: 10/18
Coffee Warlord: 7/7
RealDeal: 7/6
Mr. Wednesday: 7/2
henry296: 6/6
Vince: 4/12
SnDvls: 4/6
Superman: 3/2
Blade: 3/1
MrBug: 2/4
Schmidty: 2/1
Eaglesfan: 1/7
kingfc22: 1/1

The ones I put in red are the ones whose post counts when up substantially when a wolf's head was on the line. The ones in blue are the ones whose post counts went down.

Although MrBug's post count doubled, he didn't post much anyhow, so I don't consider him a prime suspect....yet.

Raiders Army 08-11-2005 05:38 AM

Also, I'm fairly certain a good strategy by the wolves would be to have one of the other two defend digamma while the other one laid low. So with that theory in hand, I think one of the red names above is a wolf and the other is probably at the bottom of the list.

Poli 08-11-2005 06:09 AM

As someone mentioned earlier, I think I should be cleared since Fouts was a villager. I think I've proven I know who has the hammer as well, and believe they're in the clear as well. Might not be, maybe he's a wolf playing along.

Eaglesfan27 08-11-2005 07:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raiders Army
Take it for what it's worth. I already told you what I believe about the post count activity. Dolaposts and multiple dolaposts only count as one post. If someone interrupted your dola and you responded, I counted both of your posts. This is raw data and doesn't take into account content of posts.

Name: Day 2 posts/Day 3 posts

Ardent: 14/7
Raiders: 13/15
BrianD: 10/9
hoopsguy: 10/18
Coffee Warlord: 7/7
RealDeal: 7/6
Mr. Wednesday: 7/2
henry296: 6/6
Vince: 4/12
SnDvls: 4/6
Superman: 3/2
Blade: 3/1
MrBug: 2/4
Schmidty: 2/1
Eaglesfan: 1/7
kingfc22: 1/1

The ones I put in red are the ones whose post counts when up substantially when a wolf's head was on the line. The ones in blue are the ones whose post counts went down.

Although MrBug's post count doubled, he didn't post much anyhow, so I don't consider him a prime suspect....yet.



My post patterns changed strictly due to the fact that my wife was home all day on day 2, and I didn't get a chance to post from work on that day. On day 3, she went out a while which gave me a chance to post more. She is on vacation this week, so my voting will be somewhat sporadic (however, I'm hopeful I'll get a chance to post from work a few times today.)

Eaglesfan27 08-11-2005 07:29 AM

Dola -

Also, I'll make sure I make time to post if I have something substantial to say.

hoopsguy 08-11-2005 07:33 AM

Good news on the destroyed mask. Bad news on the dead villagers, particularly since Brian was the most widely trusted after yesterdays events and Fouts would have been very close to in the clear if healed by the ointment.

Ardent, would you be willing to indicate what item you think is being destroyed next? A couple of people have expressed concern about you destroying every item that comes to you; I would like to think you are helping us eliminate items dangerous to the villagers.

Also, I wanted to let everyone know that I have passed the Notebook on to parts unknown.

Peregrine, does the Notebook detect an item that has been purchased that night? Not who has it, but that it is in the game? I'm thinking Book of the Damned here, which I consider a very, very big threat to the villagers at this point.

Poli 08-11-2005 07:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy
Good news on the destroyed mask. Bad news on the dead villagers, particularly since Brian was the most widely trusted after yesterdays events and Fouts would have been very close to in the clear if healed by the ointment.

Ardent, would you be willing to indicate what item you think is being destroyed next? A couple of people have expressed concern about you destroying every item that comes to you; I would like to think you are helping us eliminate items dangerous to the villagers.


I'd rather not at this point. I might later if it's that much of a concern. I'd rather not let the wolves know what's getting destroyed. I wouldn't be concerned about me destroying items that would benefit us, the villagers. I certainly wouldn't do that. I'm only sending the Hammer things that are dangerous to us.

That said, the only thing I picked up yesterday was a friggin silver piece. I'd like to think that someone would have sent me something to be destroyed...I was a little surprised nothing came my way. I figured you guys would trust me by now. With the mask destroyed that maybe that will clear the way for more items to come my way.

Poli 08-11-2005 07:41 AM

Good job, BrianD. Thanks for the help. Sorry you perished.

hoopsguy 08-11-2005 07:41 AM

Raiders, I'm not sure why you group Eagles and Vince along with me in red - yes, their post count was higher on one day but did either of them speak up for Digamma in the least? I recall feeling very lonely yesterday - which ended up being a very good thing since Dig was a wolf.

Fouts as a villager absolutely defines that Lathum had a mask - don't think there was enormous doubt on this point but it is now confirmed. Another mask was destroyed last night. This should increase the value of the 'seer' items - much less chance of a false reading. We still have sufficient numbers that going for a 1:1 trade makes little sense for the wolves. But that advantage will only hold up for a couple of days if we do not continue to collect wolf hides.

BrianD 08-11-2005 07:43 AM

I thought I might wake up this morning dead. I hoped that no longer having a helpful item would save me, but I guess not. I think vengence won out over strategy, and that helps the villagers. Go get 'em guys.

hoopsguy 08-11-2005 07:44 AM

I'm pretty close to trusting you, AE. If the item that is destroyed tonight is wolf-friendly like the mask that would be one more step in that direction.

Poli 08-11-2005 07:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrianD
I thought I might wake up this morning dead. I hoped that no longer having a helpful item would save me, but I guess not. I think vengence won out over strategy, and that helps the villagers. Go get 'em guys.


I wonder if I'll be next now since I got the mask destroyed. The wolves have to believe I'm serious at this point.

Peregrine 08-11-2005 07:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy
Peregrine, does the Notebook detect an item that has been purchased that night? Not who has it, but that it is in the game? I'm thinking Book of the Damned here, which I consider a very, very big threat to the villagers at this point.


I'm assuming you mean, if it was used tonight on an item purchased tonight? No, because in the order of events, items are activated before items are purchased. It would confirm whether an item is in the game or not though, at the time it was used.

hoopsguy 08-11-2005 08:06 AM

For those villagers accumulating silver it probably makes sense to start purchasing items that are a threat to the wolves.

Dart (3)
Ointment (2)
Water (3)
Lance (6) - serious savings required
Pendant (3)

I think we would have to be suspicious of anyone holding the Coat of Arms - it buys the wolves an extra day of eating.

What are people's thoughts on the hidden vote items? My thought is that they are more wolf-friendly than villager friendly, since disguised votes are more beneficial to the hunted by potentially skewing voting patterns. Not that we have had particularly close races the last two days ...

Raiders Army 08-11-2005 08:14 AM

[quote=hoopsguy]Raiders, I'm not sure why you group Eagles and Vince along with me in red - yes, their post count was higher on one day but did either of them speak up for Digamma in the least? I recall feeling very lonely yesterday - which ended up being a very good thing since Dig was a wolf./QUOTE]

You're in red because your post count went up. Eagles and Vince's post counts went up substantially. The reason why I believe that may be an indicator of evil is that the more you post, the more chances you have to muddy the waters.

Lord knows at this point, I am contributing to this as well, but hopefully I'm trying to clear the waters instead of muddy them. One of the things to take into account for multiple posts is that someone who may not have internet access at work will come home and see four pages of stuff to wade through. Do you think that person will actually read all of it, or just skim everything and maybe read the last page?

Again, low post counts on a day when two villagers are on the line and then an increase of post counts on a day when a wolf is on the chopping block could be an indicator towards them being a wolf. I'm not saying they (or you) are a wolf...I'm just saying it may be a clue.

Raiders Army 08-11-2005 08:15 AM

I'd really like to edit that post, but oh well. Don't know how the other bracket got deleted.

Poli 08-11-2005 08:40 AM

To be honest, I really don't know which way to go right now.

Blade6119 08-11-2005 09:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy
I think we would have to be suspicious of anyone holding the Coat of Arms - it buys the wolves an extra day of eating.

Realdeal claims to be holding this...

Coffee Warlord 08-11-2005 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blade6119
Realdeal claims to be holding this...


If he had it, the logical move would have been to pass it off last night. That's a huge item if it fell into the hands of the wolves.

Blade6119 08-11-2005 10:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord
If he had it, the logical move would have been to pass it off last night. That's a huge item if it fell into the hands of the wolves.

Ya, but i think hes a wolf...so im a little worried...

Blade6119 08-11-2005 10:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SnDvls
I would think the one item they would want and could have now is the Book of the Damned.

let's assume they all started w/ 1 silver. total 3 or the wolves.
night one - one wolf passes all items to the other two and gets a silver. They kill jeff who has at least 2 silver (one from ardent) total 6 silver at least after night 1.
night two- they purchase the book of the damned as the one with all the silver can do that.
night three - they convert one of us.

this is what I'm afraid of especially if fouts doesn't get saved and we linch a villager. then they have 4 wolves tomorrow and get a kill too!


edit: correct my first sentence as they could not have it yet, but could get it tonight.


Quote:

Originally Posted by Peregrine
Just to clarify this, it takes two readings of the Book to make a new wolf, the first reading of the Book turns a human into a sorceror, then the sorceror would have to read another book to turn into a wolf.


Thought the fact that there could very well be another sorcerer around is worth noting...they might not of, but i havent seen any moves by them to make me think they spent their money...since fouts was a villager it would have been pointless for one of the bad guys to kill him since we were doing it for them

Eaglesfan27 08-11-2005 10:23 AM

Another point about my posts count going up. All of my posts were strongly in support of lynching Digamma! I don't know how my extra posting "muddied the waters."

If anything, I'm useful for clarifying the waters.

hoopsguy 08-11-2005 10:47 AM

Real, just wanted to clarify my thoughts on the Coat of Arms, as I did some thinking on this item over the night.

That item is much more useful to a wolf than to a human. If we end up voting to lynch someone and they are protected by the coat there is a strong likelihood we will go back to them the next day. If that person is a villager, they have now given the wolves one more day to eat. And, if there is another bandwagon, we gain nothing in the voting patterns.

I don't want this item falling into wolf hands - I would prefer that it is out of the game. So I understand some trepidation about passing this item if you are a villager. But the coat protects you from villagers, not wolves. By revealing you have this item (assuming you are telling the truth) you are making yourself a target for the wolves.

hoopsguy 08-11-2005 10:56 AM

Dola - I have no interest in receiving this item from you in the event that you do pass it. I would suggest that you move it to someone who is not likely to be among the clubhouse leaders for lynching. Don't want to save a wolf, don't want to put a villager in the spot where he is trapped the next day by its activation when he is headed for gallows (detailed this situation in earlier post).

RealDeal 08-11-2005 11:22 AM

I agreed with your message yesterday. I'm not going to say anything at this point about who I passed it to or I passed it. I agree that it's a dangerous item, and the wolves need to be left guessing about it.

Mr. Wednesday 08-11-2005 11:34 AM

It should have been passed last night, and the person that it should have been passed to is pretty obvious to me; saying that much is probably still putting too big of a target on their back.

hoopsguy 08-11-2005 11:52 AM

Since no one has offered up a suspect yet, I'm guessing that anyone with a seer power either saw villagers or hasn't been online yet.

Tactical question for the group - is there any harm in revealing that you viewed someone and they were a villager? I suppose there is if you are looking to hold onto the item for another night. But the wolves know who the wolves are - and right now it really feels like we are groping in the dark while trying to target the last two.

Of course, a wolf can claim he viewed the other wolf as a villager - but that is a very dangerous end-game for them if at some later point a villager decides to view one of those two to validate their claim.

Eaglesfan27 08-11-2005 11:57 AM

I personally think the seer should lay low until he has viewed two werewolves (unless the odds become heavily slanted against the villagers.) However, with our current expected ratio of villagers to wolves, if I was the seer I'd lay low until I could identify two wolves or somehow drag out the second wolf.

Raiders Army 08-11-2005 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27
I personally think the seer should lay low until he has viewed two werewolves (unless the odds become heavily slanted against the villagers.) However, with our current expected ratio of villagers to wolves, if I was the seer I'd lay low until I could identify two wolves or somehow drag out the second wolf.

Understood and I can agree with that logic, but what do we do tonight? Go for the tie again?

Eaglesfan27 08-11-2005 12:04 PM

I don't know. Hopefully, some good information will come up this afternoon that will point us in the right direction.

RealDeal 08-11-2005 12:12 PM

Well, I know that Blade is either a wolf or an idiot.

MrBug708 08-11-2005 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy
What are people's thoughts on the hidden vote items? My thought is that they are more wolf-friendly than villager friendly, since disguised votes are more beneficial to the hunted by potentially skewing voting patterns. Not that we have had particularly close races the last two days ...


Except the one time a hidden vote was used, it nailed Digamma as the only vote. Kind of stupid for the wolves to use it on themselves as a singular vote right?

RealDeal 08-11-2005 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrBug708
Except the one time a hidden vote was used, it nailed Digamma as the only vote. Kind of stupid for the wolves to use it on themselves as a singular vote right?


Yeah, I don't know what to think of it. Did someone have it who was a seer previously or who was able to communicate with a seer? And if so, and we see another vote like that, will it mean the same thing, or will it be cast by a different person who may have different motives. Looking back, I don't think it was a coincidence, but I don't know how helpful it is going forward.

Raiders Army 08-11-2005 12:26 PM

My guess is that BrianD did it? He died, and obviously can't come forth to take credit for it.

MrBug708 08-11-2005 12:31 PM

Is it me or is there very little silver in this game?

SnDvls 08-11-2005 12:43 PM

checking in this morning, but nothing to add to the conversation.

Vince 08-11-2005 12:51 PM

I'll echo Eaglesfan27's sentiments on the post-count explanation. Yesterday, I started work at 5:30 PM PST. The day before, I started work at 11:00 AM PST. That's why I didn't post much. I tend to talk a lot in these games :)

I'm starting to think that hoopsguy is on the level -- "stupid wolf strategy" combined with a seemingly well-intentioned pass looks good. The item he passed could be useful for determining a target for the wolves, so I don't think he would have given that up if he was a wolf.

Mr. Wednesday 08-11-2005 12:55 PM

Remember that there is no specific seer role, rather two items that confer seer powers -- one multi-use, one single-use. The single-use one only costs three silver, so there may be some of them around at this point.

hoopsguy 08-11-2005 12:56 PM

If you haven't had items since passing one the first night you should have accumulated 3 silver in addition to the one you started with - think I'm doing the math correctly there.

It would be great if a villager is able to get up to six silver and start playing bodyguard. Of course, the danger there is that it would take another two days to accumulate that amount of silver, assuming no items are passed. Then another day to get the purchase. So we would be four days out from being able to use the item. Those are the risk/reward ratios for just about all of these items.

Vince 08-11-2005 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast
I wonder if I'll be next now since I got the mask destroyed. The wolves have to believe I'm serious at this point.


What I don't understand is why the wolves haven't taken a shot at you or the three people you indicated yet? I'd imagine that the Smith's Hammer is something they would want to get rid of as quickly as possible -- destroying items seems to only detriment the wolves, unless one of them owns the hammer already, and destroying the mask was just done to keep them on the level. I don't think that is the case, but it's a possibility.

hoopsguy 08-11-2005 12:59 PM

Quote:

Peregrine - Post #1
you can hold as many Silver Pieces as you want, you are not forced to Pass them


Does this mean that we can pass silver? If so, I think this opens up some interesting possibilities for the villagers (and the wolves). But given the villager numbers advantage, I think this is likely to work in our favor if it is possible.

Poli 08-11-2005 12:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vince
What I don't understand is why the wolves haven't taken a shot at you or the three people you indicated yet? I'd imagine that the Smith's Hammer is something they would want to get rid of as quickly as possible -- destroying items seems to only detriment the wolves, unless one of them owns the hammer already, and destroying the mask was just done to keep them on the level. I don't think that is the case, but it's a possibility.


Got me, I figured one of the three or myself would be dead already. I imagine with the mask being destroyed I'm a target for the wolves, that or one of the three are.

My gut feeling? One of the three is a wolf. I've got no proof whatsoever, but that's what I am thinking.

Poli 08-11-2005 01:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy
Does this mean that we can pass silver? If so, I think this opens up some interesting possibilities for the villagers (and the wolves). But given the villager numbers advantage, I think this is likely to work in our favor if it is possible.


I've passed silver, I suspect successfully.

MrBug708 08-11-2005 01:04 PM

Do we know for sure, who has any items?

hoopsguy 08-11-2005 01:07 PM

If we can in fact pass silver, then lets see what we can do to try and accumulate it to get some items. The trick here is to avoid helping the wolves accumulate extra silver so they can purchase a book or something else brutal to the villager cause.

If we are able to come up with some agreed upon circle of trust (using the term that was thrown around last night) consisting of maybe three people then we can agree to funnel money to one of those parties. Each person who buys into the 'move silver' concept can pick the person in the group of three they feel most comfortable with and allocate silver to that party.

The two wolves will try to hijack this process, either by attacking it or insinuating themselves within the 'circle'. Obviously it doesn't help them if the villagers are able to pool their resources and purchase villager-friendly items.

So lets see if we can get some kind of group-think around this idea to come up with a system that most of us can get behind. I think the concept makes sense, but really want help on establishing the details.

Poli 08-11-2005 01:08 PM

I absolutely know two people who hold three items.

hoopsguy 08-11-2005 01:11 PM

Quote:

Mr. Bug Post #780
Do we know for sure, who has any items?


Sure, if you have used the Hood then you know one person/item combo - for one night. After that, you can try to guess whether they would hold the item or pass it.

The Notebook can tell you if the item is in the game. And if the item was moved (passed or stolen) that night then you learn who has it at the end of the evening.

If you have PM'd someone via the Robe or Cloak they may tell you what item they possess. But you don't 'know' in this case.

There may be other items that play into this as well - going from memory in this reply rather than referencing the entire item list.

Edit - to correct made-up words and/or bad spelling

Superman=#54 08-11-2005 01:12 PM

My analysis...

Kingfc22 - Is way under the radar. Has two posts in the last two days according to Raiders Army. Villager with a really good item, or wolf in hiding?

sundvls - He has been accused of being a wolf, but has seemed to dodge the accusations in the last two days because of Fouts and BrianD's revelations.

Blade - He has also been very quiet until today. He has accused RealDeal of being a werewolf. Seems to me to be a villager.

Coffee Warlord - One of the more talkative people. I have a really strong feeling he is a villager.

Henry296 - Seems to be good he did vote for Digamma pretty early yesterday. I think villager.

eaglesfan27 - Was very active yesterday. Wanted digamma to get lynched. Villager.

hoopsguy - The most talkative. He strongly defended digamma. He has admitted that he looks suspect. Wolf or villager?? The way he voted yesterday makes him look like a wolf.

schmidty - Very quiet. I have no idea.

Vince - Most of his posts agreed with the majority: kill digamma, let Fouts die, and I believe BrianD. Villager.

RealDeal - Claims he has the Coat of Arms. The good item for a wolf. A few accusations have been thrown his way. He was the leading canidate yesterday until he revealed he had the Coat of Arms and BrianD revealed what he saw. Wolf or Villager??

Raiders Army - Has done a lot of analysis, looks like most people trust him. Villager.

Mr. Wendsday - Very quiet yesterday, he was one of the last few to join the bandwagon yesterday. Possible wolf or villager with little internet access yesterday?

Mr. Bug - Also joined the bandwagon late yesterday. I have no idea. Seems to ba a villager.

Ardent - He is the master of the circle of trust. Likes to destroy items. He says the items he destroys are for the good of the villagers. Villager until proven otherwise,with destructive tendencies.

Kingfc, Sundvls, and Schmidty to me stand out. One of them possibly could be a werewolf.

MrBug708 08-11-2005 01:14 PM

I didnt join the bandwagon late, I joined the bandwagon early. ;)

Poli 08-11-2005 01:23 PM

I'm not going to hurl any accusations at any of the 3 people that voted for me, though I suspect one to be a wolf. I don't want to give the wolves a shot of figuring out who has the Hammer. If I accused one, that could make the choice who has the Hammer 50 or 100%, depending on if I have the right guy or not.

In fact, I'll go on the record that I won't vote for any of them.

Coffee Warlord 08-11-2005 01:23 PM

Does anyone know if Schmidty is unable to access the boards during work hours? He's been the quietest of us all, just curious if the real world gets in the way.

Poli 08-11-2005 01:24 PM

And yes, I am the master of the circle of trust.:) That mask being destroyed must have proved that.

Raiders Army 08-11-2005 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy
If we can in fact pass silver, then lets see what we can do to try and accumulate it to get some items. The trick here is to avoid helping the wolves accumulate extra silver so they can purchase a book or something else brutal to the villager cause.

If we are able to come up with some agreed upon circle of trust (using the term that was thrown around last night) consisting of maybe three people then we can agree to funnel money to one of those parties. Each person who buys into the 'move silver' concept can pick the person in the group of three they feel most comfortable with and allocate silver to that party.

The two wolves will try to hijack this process, either by attacking it or insinuating themselves within the 'circle'. Obviously it doesn't help them if the villagers are able to pool their resources and purchase villager-friendly items.

So lets see if we can get some kind of group-think around this idea to come up with a system that most of us can get behind. I think the concept makes sense, but really want help on establishing the details.

I can get behind this as well. The problem is that everyone looks innocent at this point. Weighing the risk/reward of the whole thing, this is what could make or break us. Either it will work really well, or we'll get decimated.

That warning aside, I think this is a sound strategy. We can minimize our risk by working in groups of three. That way if a wolf does get extra silver, it's only one, maybe two pieces. We can also leverage our superior numbers at this point and even if they are able to buy something with three silver, we should be able to get at least two items worth three silver each.

Vince 08-11-2005 01:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy
If we can in fact pass silver, then lets see what we can do to try and accumulate it to get some items. The trick here is to avoid helping the wolves accumulate extra silver so they can purchase a book or something else brutal to the villager cause.

If we are able to come up with some agreed upon circle of trust (using the term that was thrown around last night) consisting of maybe three people then we can agree to funnel money to one of those parties. Each person who buys into the 'move silver' concept can pick the person in the group of three they feel most comfortable with and allocate silver to that party.

The two wolves will try to hijack this process, either by attacking it or insinuating themselves within the 'circle'. Obviously it doesn't help them if the villagers are able to pool their resources and purchase villager-friendly items.

So lets see if we can get some kind of group-think around this idea to come up with a system that most of us can get behind. I think the concept makes sense, but really want help on establishing the details.


It's a good idea, but we're going to be shooting in the dark mostly. Anyone we implicate is an immediate suspect for the wolves to kill.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ardent
I absolutely know two people who hold three items.

What about the Guise of the Imposter? It hasn't been brought up yet (much), but passed items aren't a sure thing.

SnDvls 08-11-2005 01:29 PM

I will go on record now that I am a villager. I did have the ring of vision. I used it on night two for fouts. I did not want to pass it to someone I didn't know, which in this case I don't know who is who. so I wasted it, also in hopes I'd be passed an item. I hold no item and have only had the ring of vision. I would be willing to play the silver pass game if that is what is agreed upon, but I'm not sure who to trust. I know who I don't trust though. Ardent would have to be at the top of my list in trusting though of those of us left, if he's a wolf he's one hell of a used car sales men.
There are a couple of you out there trying to point a finger at me. mabey trying to deflect off yourself, not sure? I was accused by one person Lathum. What have I done to cause this speculation?

Vince 08-11-2005 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SnDvls
What have I done to cause this speculation?


Well, not much, really. Which is why even though I got a pretty suspicious feeling from you, I didn't really follow up on it at all. We'll see what happens as this starts to play out.

Poli 08-11-2005 01:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vince
What about the Guise of the Imposter? It hasn't been brought up yet (much), but passed items aren't a sure thing.


If he's taken an item, then I would absolutely know two people who hold two items. And I'll be pissed.

SnDvls 08-11-2005 01:34 PM

okay on day 1 I suggested we get a tie so we don't off any villagers. Who were the two tied at that point? Ardent and Fouts. Fouts is confirmed villager. Ardent is believed by me and just about everyone else to be a villager. Why would a wolf want a tie between two villagers? so a wolf would have to take out an extra person? doesn't make sense, the odds are already stacked against them going in.

Vince 08-11-2005 01:41 PM

A wolf loves a tie early in the game -- no voting patterns are established, no roles are revealed...nothing is learned. Even if it were between two villagers, a tie is great for the wolves on the first few days.

henry296 08-11-2005 01:42 PM

Qwikshot had the Notebook which went to Jeff when qwikshot was lynched. Was Jeff able to pass it before he was killed by the wolves?

SnDvls 08-11-2005 01:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vince
A wolf loves a tie early in the game -- no voting patterns are established, no roles are revealed...nothing is learned. Even if it were between two villagers, a tie is great for the wolves on the first few days.


I think the wolves like it better the last two days as it's been a run away with them. At least on day one you can see votes for many different people and lots of unvoting. Almost none of that on day 2 and only 1 on day 3 (realdeal)

That's what I would want if I was a wolf.

Poli 08-11-2005 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SnDvls
Ardent would have to be at the top of my list in trusting though of those of us left, if he's a wolf he's one hell of a used car sales men.


I would make a joke about selling you a car... :)

SnDvls 08-11-2005 01:50 PM

I'm gonna jump first.

vote Superman

reason: day 1 voted Ardent late (assumed human)
day 2 voted fouts (known human)
day 3 No Vote
day 4 shows up and points the finger at me. gotta start somewhere

MrBug708 08-11-2005 01:56 PM

Hoppsguy has been way to quick to defend a wolf and then spent the rest of the time trying to figure out who to lynch.

vote - Hoopsguy


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