Hypothetical situation here.. lets say someone had a limited supply of ammo, and they were about to take a shot between two question marks. Which question mark yields the best information?

Are you thinking of shooting?

I would ask you to wait until toMorrow so I can take a shot and see if I can resolve the question of my alignment.

I am convinced that there's no way Martin is a wolf or the cultist. There's no other way around it.

I suppose if Martin was a wolf, and felt he was done for, it could be a play to find out the bodyguard, but that seems a bit farfetched.

How would that resolve anything? You mean you're that hopeful that you'll hit a wolf?

I mean, the odds of me hitting town and not hitting a hunter are pretty low.

Once again ignoring the Font/Vaimes/MartinD trinity for a moment to consider other players ... I actually feel better about Narc despite him coming after me tomorrow, that looked like the Narc I know and love. Still unsure about cheeki but he doesn't feel like a must lynch to me, just on my question mark list. EagleFan has me flipflopping my read of him, I'm not sure what I think of him right now. Jackal had a question mark for me day one and then wasn't here day two, so I'll be looking at him a lot today. People I feel pretty good about include britrock, shoveler and Grover. Their input has felt legit.

Phone post. Keeping it quick as this just hit me. Font seems to be claiming hunter but is she was wouldn't Vaimes have been killed when he attacked her? Or have I misread that?

I'm willing to find out.. just need the prior authorization.

I want to hear more this evening when I should be able to read through a bit better. Not sure it does is any good to fish to anything.

Shoveler, please don't shoot me toDay.

Give me a few hours to pick my target, and I'll shoot them. If, by some weirdness, I'm still alive and not confirmed town, you guys can lynch me.

Do not throw your life away for mine, especially when you're acting this towny.

Also, Martin obviously saved both me and Vaimes. All you have to do is ask Chief to confirm.

Autumn, I believe you are the most likely scum on the Zinto wagon, before Jackal and Narc. I am going to shoot you in one hour unless you give me a reason not to.

Martin's suggestion of the kill attempt block is still confusing me, need to digest more.

I'm under the impression that they both remained alive because font was not killed by Vaimes shooting

Martin was a known Duke, correct? With so many mechanics going on in on egame (well, essentially two) it seems like those 8 are Hunters or if Dukes, trying to throw off the scent?

Maybe my thinking is off here though

I am inclined to agree. If Martin hadn't saved Vaimes, both Vaimes and font would be dead.

hadn't saved font.

oops.

So Martin is def not the Cultist, since he duked, and Cultist does not have that ability.

Since the bg is a village role - wolves would not target wolf Martin in hopes that bg would be guarding him.

This means Martin is confirmed village, and isn't lying about being protected last night. Also means Cultist was not converted last night.

Can a bodyguard protect themselves?

Yes.

BODYGUARD-- This player has the option to watch over one player per night from an attack from the wolves. He can protect himself. He cannot protect the same person two nights in a row.

Dur. Thanks. As a noob I should a.) read the rules. Thank you for the info.

No worries. I had to look it up myself. I figured they couldn't, but I was wrong.

Seems unlikely he'd be both medic and bg though.

I think Martin is safe for awhile though. They'd be more inclined to try and find seer/bg/cultist rather than waste a NK on vanilla villager now.

How does Shoveler's "duke to MartinD because 2 deaths are better than one" advice look in light of D2/N2? I must admit, I guess I'm still a noob but I didn't get the logic to start with.

Gonna catch up on Gotham and call it a night. See you lot on the morrow.

Also, cheap shill: Going Dutch? The Incredible Tale of Gelre! - Front Office Football Central

Font, you shooting me is a terrible idea, and not because it's me, or I'm super important. Because it makes zero sense. I can't see any reason why you would even posit such a strategy.

You are suggesting A) it is likely that you will be killed and thus revealed as villager. This makes very little sense because there have been mostly (all?) Hunters killed so far, and so the majority of the game right now is Dukes. So it's actually more likely your kill will work and you'll remain alive and unrevealed. Since you're suggesting confirming your villagerness is the point of this, it seems pointless.

B) You are suggesting it makes sense for one player to pick a player and force them to claim outside of the lynch process. This is a horrible idea. Time is to the benefit of the village, and the wolves want the game to end as fast as possible. We don't want to force extra claims, certainly not just because one player has a hunch or a theory. Adding one or two villager deaths to the lynching cycle just gets the wolves closer to parity.

C) Your reasoning is screwy. You say that you strongly suspect everyone who pushed to lynch Martin or Vaimes. And yet the only person you are pushing, and indeed suggesting that you are going to kill out of turn, is one of the only people who did not do that. I understand that you suspect me as not following along in order to gain credit. Fine, that's next level thinking. But why are you not showering any suspicion on any of the heaps of people who actually did what you claim to be suspicious of? I haven't heard you even mention one of their names. Oh, because none of them were up for a lynch yesterday and so are not easy targets?

You are a very good player, and shrewd, and so I am finding it hard to believe you have missed all of this. If you are a villager, I hope you can see what a poor plan this is.

With that, I will be out until morning. I do hope Font was only probing for responses.

Well, here is the other problem with this shenanigan of an idea.

Possible outcomes, for a villager Font:

Font hits a hunter, and both die.
--Font is shown to be village, Font hits a wolf!
--Font is shown to be village, Font kills a villager.

Font hits a duke, and doesn't die.
--Font hits a wolf! Font is good (most likely!)
--Font hits a villager, Font gets lynched (most likely!)

Because there are more dukes than hunters the second set is more likely. Because there are more villagers than wolves, the villager scenarios are more likely (though I'm sure Font thinks her wolfdar is better than random). So most likely scenario is Font kills a villager, we lynch her, and have wasted a day and lost an extra villager. Both of the hit a hunter scenarios result in an extra death. And even in the best case scenario, Font hits a wolf duke, we don't get any vote history or any more data on the wolf after Font makes a case for the player being a wolf.

There's really no shortcuts, you gotta play the game. Villagers should be saving their shots for when a wolf gets nabbed, not wasting them.

Autumn:
1. There's a different between townsided kills and scum sided kills. By using a hunter kill from the scummiest hunter every Day we kill 1-2 scummy people who would have likely been lynched anyway. If we take the slow route, scum get to kill their way through a larger ratio of towny and strong players compared to scummy people we can lynch.

2. Timmae, Shoveler and EF all supported the attacks on MartinD and I have attacked them toDay.

3. I have 11 players to pick between. About 3-4 of them are probably hunters, and about 4 are probably scum (counting the cultist). Even with overlap, assume my reads are better than random, I have a very good chance of success.

4. The fact that I'm willing to shoot people without knowing if they're a hunter or not should point towards me being town, just like it points towards Shoveler being town.

5. There's no point in saving shots when only one can be used a Day.

What are your reads?

I cant say I disagree with the reasoning on #5

A lot of flawed logic by font but that seems par for the course. She has yet to show an argument to support her case and just spouts crap. If she is village as she claims and comes after me the wolves will claim another minor victory for the day.

With that said. I feel useless in this game. Other than phone posting because of insomnia I wouldn't have even checked back until sometime late in the day. I really had no desire to log in and deal with the attitude.

Either way, I am out for a while. Narc should be on soon. If I still can't sleep I will check back to see if a conversation is going on. That I will gladly be part of.

If Martin D is a villager and he duked to Vaimes then we deserve to lose. Duking to Vaimes is absolutely the least-villager friendly move he could have made. And then the wolves try to night kill him? Why on earth would they try to kill him? Why would the bodyguard protect him?

Has Font claimed the ammo clip? Otherwise what's up with the threats of shooting people? She's a duke right?

Otherwise I wish you guys would kind of do what I normally do during my day but during the evening. At the moment you're playing with an 8-hour day because there's very little discussion after nightfall.

I say we shoot Font. If she's good then that pretty much clears Martin and we can deal with the ramifications of that. If she's bad then we string up Martin tonight and have a long hard look at Grover tomorrow.

If they thought you were a cultist then none of the wolves are paying attention because were you a cultist you would have been lynched. You wouldn't be able to duke the vote.

Chief - are there any condition whereby the cultist could duke the vote if they were duke faction?

Oh I see you saw that. I should probably read through the entire thread closely before posting.

Why? If Martin is a wolf then he knows he's not going to be around much longer - might as well try to get as much information as possible out of the situation. Font also knows that she's not going to be around much more. However if they're converted the cultist then they want to hold on as long as possible so that they can steam-roller with day-kills and dukes and whittle the village numbers right down.

Sort of like what Martin has already done by duking to Vaimes. I'm surprised Font hasn't berated Martin for that move yet.

I'm a hunter, Narc. I thought that was obvious as of yesterday? No one's shooting me because I'm shooting toDay. Why don't you weigh in on who you think I should shoot?

EF: Calling my reasons "flawed" without providing any reasoning yourself is meaningless doubt-casting. You're like the guy who shouts "fallacy" without being able to elaborate on any problems with the argument. Give reads, provide reasons, and don't dismiss arguments just "because."

I did actually. I'm not going to scream at him when he made a great protection decision yesterDay and everyone had horrible ideas for the lynch.

This is nonsense. You'll duke the lynch. You're a duke. That's why we should shoot you and not Martin. I don't really understand why you're even trying to argue that you're a hunter. The whole point about Vaimes yesterday was "how did he know it was safe to shoot font"?

How did Martin save Vaimes? By lynching him?

Definitely no need for the bodyguard to reveal. We learn what we need to know by shooting font.

Or, you know, he could just be making up the story.

Protecting anyone pretty much at random wasn't a great protection decision. It was the first in a line of moves I would designate as anti-village.

Narc, why do you find it so hard to believe that I'm a hunter?

Pretend I'm telling the truth. I'm about to shoot Autumn. Do you have nothing to say about that?

If you're a villager then I could get on board with an Autumn shooting to bring clarity to yesterday's vote. If you're villager then its pretty certain that Martin is and it will show whether it was villager-village or villager-wolf.

Thank you.

In case I die here, I have very strong townreads on MartinD and Shoveler, and a weaker townread on Narcizo.

Cheeki, Raven, britrock and MrBug708 are sort of towny.

If Autumn is town, look at The Jackal and Narc for their placement on the Zinto wagon. I'd also take a closer look at Grover, EF and timmae.

Chief - if a hunter kill on another hunter was blocked by the medic would the shooting hunter die?

If you're village font I strongly suggest you don't send in a kill order before other people get here to discuss this. I'm viewing you shooting anyone as yet more evidence that you're bad. If you've sent the order then you can take it back until Chief gets here.

I don't think you are a villager. I think you may have an ammo clip which will allow you to shoot someone. That's going to put us in a huge hole as we won't be able to lynch you tonight.

Not much more to be done really. I would argue that the body of evidence points overwhelmingly to font/Martin being bad. I'll sort out a voting record during my day. As far as I'm concerned Martin has made two move that greatly damaged the village. Maybe a villager can make one mistake, but if you get two together then it starts not to look like a mistake.

Day One

13:31 #80 timmae votes cheeki (1)
13:36 #81 Vaimes votes font (1)
13:36 #82 Eagle votes timmae (1)
13:37 #85 Martin votes Shoveler (1)
13:37 #85 Vaimes unvotes Font, votes Timmae (2) / Timmae 2
13:40 #89 JAG vote Jackal (1)
13:48 #95 Shoveler votes Vaimes (1)
13:51 #99 Grover votes Narcizo (1)
14:32 #104 Cheeki votes Raven (1)
14:56 #106 Raven votes Jackal (2) / Timmae, Jackal 2
15:08 #108 Narcizo votes Zinto (1)
15:35 #113 Britrock votes Shoveler (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler 2
15:38 #115 JAG unvotes Jackal (1), votes Raven (1) / Timmae, Shoveler 2
16.51 #134 Jackal votes Grover (1)
18:57 #148 JAG unvotes Raven (0), votes Fonti (1)

20:28 #154 Timmae unvotes cheeki (0), votes Jackal (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler 2
20:00 #163 Zinto votes Vaimes (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
22:52 #178 Bug votes Font (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Font, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
07:06 #187 JAG unvotes Fonti (1) / Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
07:37 #190 Cheeki unvotes Raven (0), votes Fonti (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Font, Shoveler; Vaimes 2
08:03 #197 Jag votes cheeki (1)
08:14 #202 Grover unvotes Narc (0), votes Fonti (3) / Font 3, Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
09:32 #210 Font votes Grover (2) / Font 3, Timmae, Jackal, Grover, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
10:09 #229 Jackal unvotes Grover (1) / Font 3, Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
10:27 #237 Jackal votes timmae (3) / Font, Timmae 3, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
11:54 #264 Autumn votes cheeki (2) / Font, Timmae 3, Jackal, Shoveler, cheeki, Vaimes 2
11:55 #268 Grover unvotes Font (2), votes Martin (1) / Timmae 3, Font, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki, Vaimes 2
12.07 #276 Jackal unvotes timmae (2) / Timmae, Font, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki, Vaimes 2

12:31 #283 Jackal votes Zinto (2) / Timmae, Font, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki, Zinto, Vaimes 2
12:40 #293 Cheeki unvotes Font (1), votes Vaimes (3) / Vaimes 3, Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki, Zinto 2
14:08 #310 Grover unvotes Martin (0)
14:15 #312 Vaimes unvotes Timmae, votes Zinto (3) / Vaimes, Zinto 3, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki 2
14:17 #316 JAG unvotes cheeki (1), votes Zinto (4) / Zinto 4, Vaimes 3, Jackal, Shoveler 2
14:18 #317 Britrock unvotes Shoveler (1), votes Jackal (3) / Zinto 4, Vaimes, Jackal 3
14:21 #321 Fonti unvotes Grover (1), votes Zinto (5) / Zinto 5, Vaimes, Jackal 3
14:26 #326 Grover votes Zinto (6) / Zinto 6, Jackal , Vaimes 3
14:26 #327 Shoveler unvotes Vaimes (2), votes Jackal (4) / Zinto 5, Jackal 4, Vaimes 2
14:59 #343 Autumn unvotes Cheeki (0), votes Zinto (7) / Zinto 7, Jackal 4, Vaimes 2
15:52 #358 Martin unvotes Shoveler (0), votes Jackal (5) /Zinto 7, Jackal 5, Vaimes 2
15:57 #363 Zinto unvotes Vaimes (1) / Zinto 7, Jackal 4


Zinto (7)-- Narcizo (108), The Jackal (283), Vaimes (312), JAG (316), fontisian (321), Grover (326), Autumn (343)
The Jackal (5)-- Raven (106), timmae (154), britrock88 (317), Shoveler (327), MartinD (358)
Vaimes (1)-- cheekimonk (293)
timmae (1)-- EagleFan (82)
fontisian (1)-- MrBug708 (178)

Day Two

21:36 #464 Autumn votes Cheeki (1)
22:13 #480 Cheeki votes Martin (1)
08:15 #495 Timmae votes Martin (2) / Martin 2
08:24 #496 Grover votes Cheeki (2) / Cheeki 2
08:38 #500 Eagle votes Martin (3) / Martin 3, Cheeki 2
10:25 #521 Grover unvotes Cheeki (1) / Martin 3
13:05 #572 Shoveler votes Autumn (1)
13:20 #577 Grover votes MrBug (1)
13:22 #579 Martin votes Cheeki (2) / Martin 3, Cheeki 2
13:29 #580 Narcizo votes Autumn (2) / Martin 3, Cheeki, Autumn 2
13:49 #584 Cheeki unvotes Martin (2), votes Autumn (3) / Autumn 3, Cheeki, Martin 2

14:27 #592 Grover unvotes MrBug (0)
14:35 #595 Raven votes Martin (3) / Autumn, Martin 3, Cheeki 2
14:52 #598 Grover votes Autumn (4) / Autumn 4, Martin 3, Cheeki 2
15:22 #608 Britrock votes Martin (4) /Autumn, Martin 4, Cheeki 2
15:31 #611 Cheeki unvotes Autumn (3), votes Martin (5) / Martin 5, Autumn 3, Cheeki 2
15:46 #621 Autumn unvotes Cheeki (1), votes Martin (6) / Martin 6, Autumn 3
15:41 #629 Bug votes Autumn (4) / Martin 6, Autumn 4
15:53 #632 Martin unvotes Cheeki (0), votes Autumn (5) / Martin 6, Autumn 5
15:56 #637 Narcizo unvotes Autumn (4), votes Martin (7) / Martin 7, Autumn 4
15:58 #644 Shoveler unvotes Autumn (3), votes Martin (8) / Martin 8, Autumn 3

FINAL Day Two Vote Tally

MartinD (8) -- timmae (495), EagleFan (500), Raven (595), britrock88 (608), cheekimonk (611), Autumn (621), Narcizo (637), Shoveler (644)
Autumn (3) -- Grover (598), MrBug708 (629), MartinD (632)

No Vote: The Jackal, Vaimes
Unable to Vote: fontisian

At the risk of repeating myself - Martin duking to Vaimes rather than Autumn (or not duking at all) is not the work of a villager. Furthermore he hasn't actually offered anything other than attempts at self-survival. No suspicions, no suggestion of who he intended to duke to last Night. I honestly don't think I've seen a clearer case of wolfishness.

If Martin is evil then Font is almost definitely also evil. If Font is a duke, which seems almost certain, then we don't want her alive to duke the vote tonight.

So font needs to be day killed. Preferably by Autumn, Eagle, Timmae, Brit or me (in case she is telling the truth).

Jackal missed all of yesterday and he still has more posts than any other participant in the game. :)

Didn't we have a long discussion about whether font "blatantly claimed duke" yesterday and it was shown that she (not so blatantly) did? There were also post where she talked (joked?) about being a hunter. We don't know because she was saved by MartinD, but Vaimes was village and convinced she was duke. Otherwise, he doesn't take that shot. Something's wonky.

DOLA, sorry. I see Narc pointed this out above.

We confirmed this yesterday. The shooting hunter will only die if the target is shot and killed. font was shot but not killed. Hence, she could be a hunter and Vaimes still live. But, again, I think we established that she pretty much claimed duke on D1.

EDIT: Had an extra bracket in there around "and"...

Well, pants then. :redface: Missed that bit. Apparently.

So, the only motivation I can think of for a wolf attack on Martin is that they assumed he'd be viewed as a cleared villager .. but that's clearly not the case with everyone. And I'd think they'd rather go seer hunting than try and take out a quasi-cleared person. It's weird, right?

And, even if the wolves did decide to attack him, then why would the bodyguard protect him?

But if he's a wolf, what's the benefit for making this up? He could have said nothing and we'd all assume it was either the BG block (and we'd encourage them not to reveal, as they'd likely not learn who the attacker was), or the dreaded cultist conversion.

Which leads me to believe that Martin could be the Bodyguard and Medic, but is that possible?

Seems theoretically possible, but unlikely.

Hope for the bodyguard to reveal (explicitly or through reads) in order to brutal them? I've claimed bodygaurd before to do that. Admittedly I was probably slightly more in a hole than Martin is at the moment.

It appears that since there is no counterclaim at this point we can assume that martin and thus font are good. A BG claim by someone other than martin would mean that he is evil but we haven't seen a claim yet. Nor do I want to see one if that is the case. Unless if I am following the wrong lines of thought here. We can let this play out while we look for evil elsewhere.

Can you quote that post? I don't remember anyone explicitly asking Chief about this, but it is key.

Autumn leans good due to the fact that he was looking at other avenues for evil (setting aside martin/font/vaimes). The fact that font is pushing autumn doesn't add up to me. Maybe because she believes that he is likely to make that move just to lay cover. I am leaning good on autumn.

I disagree. It shows you have a disregard for your own life in the game, yes, but I don't see that as a villager move. Losing villagers hurts the village. Losing villagers without additional chance at vote history and post analysis hurts the village. Losing possibly two villagers due to a poor targeting choice by a villager hurts the village. Nothing about this is pro-village, so I don't agree it points towards you being town. Why a wolf would take a risk at killing herself, I don't know, but I don't know why a villager would either. Self-voting is not a villager play and neither is this.

My guess is she's pushing just to get me to claim a faction. She suggested early on a full reveal, and I'm thinking perhaps her agenda is simply to get more info out. Which to me suggests a Cultist.

For sake of hypothesizing, let's say she's the cultist. Let's imagine she's a hunter (though I am unsure on that account). She makes this big deal, pushes me to claim, puts out a kill on me, then it fizzles. She then claims she's an unaware Blank, says she can't possibly be a wolf since she was willing to take a shot and possibly die, however all the time knew that wasn't a possibility. Sounds pretty feasible at this point.

I strongly feel that any haphazard shots today is not worthwhile unless there is a very strong likelihood that we are hitting evil. I don't like the idea that we need to shoot someone as we only get 1 shot a day. While vaimes random shot may be a good play to clear 2 villagers it doesn't appear we are at that juncture yet and it is D3. The longer we string this out the more info we have to track down evil.

OK I've reread the thread in light of the apparent information that Font isn't confirmed duke and
a) I'm an idiot for missing that info earlier (although if it's the post I think it is it wasn't really equivocal), and
b) I'm a lot less certain about the correct course of action

Ok. To play devil's advocate. The wolves didn't know who Martin was going to duke to. If they presumed that he was going to duke to a wolf-Autumn then, yeah, they might order a hit on Martin. As Martin would be cleared by duking to a wolf. Suggesting that wolf-Autumn is a hunter. (as they wouldn't bother with a conditional if they knew that duking to Autumn would kill Martin). And there are two villagers who might be bodyguarding Martin.

Yeah that's the sticky point to me. Claiming bodyguard here or faking a block smacks of desperation, and they can't be desperate yet. Although I know often times wolves feel they're in much more desperate straits than they are. If Martin is a wolf, or especially if Font and Martin both are, maybe they are feeling like they're painted in a corner already with both more likely to be lynched or killed now than a random group, so maybe are trying harder than we would expect. It feels thin though. If it's the case the real bodyguard will eventually claim and we'll know, so it's a theory to put in the possibility box but not to act on, I think.

Yeah that's the part that isn't lining up - it didn't seem like he was going to be put at risk. Unless he was thinking he'd be a hunter target.

Okay, despite knowing the theory is wrong, I'll look at it from your angle. Pull that kill rather than go for a good special? I guess. But it seemed very likely in thread that Martin was going to duke Vaimes. That had been discussed many times, so it seems like a stretch to predicate a kill on both Martin duking and Martin duking a particular player. If Martin doesn't duke, or dukes Vaimes, they've played a poor kill.

Again, I'm willing to bet someone thought the Medic was repeatable. Or put a kill order in early in the day? How soon was it fairly obvious Martin was a real lynch target? Both of those assume a fairly oblivious wolf team though.

So because Martin duked to someone who had garnered precisely zero votes on the day in question. Despite what I felt was consensus opinion about what vote-leading dukes should be looking to do. Because of that we're left with another day of Martin (or Font, by proxy) vs Autumn.

Full disclosure, I noticed a few weeks ago that I'm inching closer to 10k posts so I've had that in the back of my head. But only my first few posts in this thread were fluffy. :)

I don't seem to have any meetings scheduled after 12 EST, so hopefully I'll be able to be much more active leading up to deadline today. Have a few meetings before 12 though so may not be around this morning.

Well we still should be able to garner something from vote history. Looking at the day through a wolf Martin lens and a villager Martin lens, what can we see? A wolf Martin would know he was going to duke, and so wolves would be free to vote however they want to look good, they probably would actually vote Martin so that their vote history would eventually look good and to assure they controlled the lynch. Villager Martin, wolves would assume Martin was going to duke but not be sure, especially because he hadn't shown up until close to lynch, and not know where. I don't know when I became the most likely second target, but I have to think Martin would probably be a better hope for wolves, since they would not know if I was a duke or not, who I might duke to if I was. Better to have Martin who they could be fairly sure would duke either me or Vaimes.

This is reminding me too that for a while it looked like Martin might not show up to move his vote or put in a duke order. That might have affected the night kill in some way.

I don't see any surefire lynch or kill targets at the moment, which is somewhat concerning. It almost makes me think the BG should reveal if they think they can add clarity to the situation - especially if it shows that Martin is lying. They'd still potentially be able to save themselves for another night, and play with the wolves' minds in terms of who they protect. And the seer would still be out there racking up some scans.

Because without knowing where the items are, we need to get a wolf sooner than later or risk endgame firing up on us quickly like in WoT

Particularly if there was a cultist conversion yesterday.

Thinking that way, looking at the Martin voters, a lot of them are on my good list. The ones that are not are Raven, Cheekimonk, EagleFan and Timmae. So those are three I'll be looking at closer today.

I don't like that Mr. Bug has two outlier votes in two days.

OK so the bodyguard reveals if he/she didn't protect Martin. If no-one reveals then we have to assume that he's telling the truth. That doesn't actually clear font but it certainly makes her much more likely to be a villager. Where does that leave us? I've wasted most of my day being sure about something because I didn't read the thread closely. I don't want to be hanging around all evening so my presence is going to be sporadic at best.

Let's look at possibilities. If there was a conversion, then Martin is certainly a wolf. However, I think that's a thin possibility, because i don't think any of us would have suspected that a target or bodyguard would have been told if they were attacked. Wow, now that I think of that, if Chief confirmed that targets will be told they're attacked I think that's a huge point. Let me continue thinking out loud about this.

Before last night, wolves would have no reason to suspect targets would know they were attacked. So if they got a conversion, they still would not know, and it would not, I think, occur to them to have Martin fake a block and claim he knew he was attacked. I think we can rule out that possibility, and therefore rule out a conversion.

So that suggests either the wolves forgot a kill order or were indeed blocked. So if they were blocked, they may have become aware that the target would know they were attacked. In which case i can't see why Martin would fake it, because the wolves would know the real target and the real bodyguard both know he's lying. A cultist Martin might fake it, but would not know to do so because he wouldn't know that targets are informed.

If there was a forgotten kill order, again, no one would know to fake the target knowing.

So I have talked myself into 100% believing Martin. I can't see how the wolves would know that targets would be told they were attacked without having experienced a block. I guess the wrinkle here is that the night 1 kill might have suggested that to them. That seems really unlikely. I'm going to go back and check that Chief confirmed Martin's point about being told.

Okay, turns out this is the only response to that idea, and I don't think it's convincing.

Chief: Are night kill targets told that they were targeted, even if they survive?

I'm going to wait on a few of these Chief answers before rendering any judgments today. But it occurs to me that if Font is a wolf, she may have hoped that a dead villager Martin would clear up the question of what happened between the two of them. Until we killed one of them, the question would remain if they were both wolves, so she may have targeted Martin hoping that we would then move on to other lynch targets. I can't think of a better reason for a Martin kill. If a villager Martin really did protect a wolf Font, then they would be worried that, as Font has claimed we should have done, we will lynch Font to find out Martin's alignment. A kill would avoid that.

Who is the 4th person that was added to your list above? You mention those are the 3 you will be looking at. 4 names.

Oh I don't know why I said three. I kept flipping back and forth from my good/bad list to the voting record, so I may have realized I forgot one after writing that.

My post #'s are screwed up because I'm viewing latest on top, but this was from 4/21 7:54pm Central. Emphasis mine:

Who should I have voted for on the first day? That is essentially a crapshoot vote. I stand by my second day vote as a vote that didn't lynch someone.

They might be outlier votes but votes on the first two days aren't that insightful, especially in this game. But I really am just digesting much of the info here as its been 2 years since I've played.

I can't offer up much more than that as a defense

Bug, I understand that legit voting can end up leaving you on outliers. I'm just pointing it out as a trend--if it continues it begins to look like a way to avoid any bad reads.

Here's where I am at.

Good - Font/martin (until proven otherwise with CC or ?), brit (content, hunting tone), ef (responses are similar to good ef weird D1 but more normal now)

Neutral - shoveler (active with content but not sure on reads), narc (pushing font/martin wagon), autumn (mentions looking elsewhere for evil but keeps going back to font/martin)

Slight evil - jackal (didn't like his D1, liked D2, now not sure), raven (looking for more content here), cheeki (seems to be all over the place), grover (need content/reads)

No read/absent - mrbug

I think that's a bit of a stretch. I spent the morning looking at the font/martin thing, and still have probably posted less about it than most people in the game. I spent all of yesterday actively looking elsewhere, and have probably posted more reads than anybody. That seems like an easy brush to try to paint me with given my morning's posts.

I would love to hear critique of my theories this morning. At this point I'm having a hard time not seeing Martin as village, and not seeing Font as cultist or wolf. But I'd love to hear other takes on it, show me where I'm wrong.

just chuckling that you liked my D2 when i didn't make a post.. kind of curious

Tuesday night is the beginning of D2, right? I know that the afternoon lynch throws people off.

A) I don't want to spend another day sorting out the font/MartinD/Vaimes situation...but the attempted NK on Martin kind of forces the issue.
B) It's really confusing that font could claim Duke enough to convince Vaimes (and me & Narc when Narc picked out the D1 post as evidence), then come back after silence screaming, "Hunter!!"
C) The targeting of Martin for NK is either noob mistake or wolf strategy, and I really doubt the former. The best possible explanation I've read so far is Autumn's recent post. But I was suspicious of Autumn yesterday and that hasn't gone away.

I'm watching others including timmae & Raven. I still can't stop talking myself into holes (hurting my teams in my first 3 games) so I should shut up, but I'll put one on the board:

vote fontisian

A Duke Cultist would have all the appearances and effects of Stuttering Sam.