You've made some good analysis here. The only reason I voted for heinze is because I know in a lot of WW games people jump on people that don't vote on the first day. I didn't see anyone that I felt really deserved a vote so I just put one back on heinze as a record for my activity.

It's possible that farrah and heinze are on the same wolf team or different wolf teams, but the only reason they voted for me was because I'm new/heinze knows me from the other boards.

Now, I know the wolves want to try to influence the rest of the office to vote out the other wolves, but I also think it makes sense that wolves would pile on votes to people they know aren't wolves - one to create more confusion, and two just to get rid of some possibly important office roles. If two or more wolves were just voting for each other back and forth it'd draw a lot of attention - as it has on me/heinze/farrah. Basically, I don't think we can just count out the people that voted for sponge. It's statistically probably that a couple of the eight people mentioned are wolves, but I wouldn't ignore other voters.

However, if this is the lead we are going to go with for now, my vote will probably land on heinze or farrah. Let's see what they have to say for themselves.

Although it is nice that Lathum is providing suggestions on who we should look at, I am still not convinced that he is in the clear. First he is one of the ones who voted for bulletsponge, and pretty much put him over the edge for the lynch vote. It was a close vote between the two (Lathum and BS), but it was the late votes, Lathum's included, that put bulletsponge over the edge to get lynched.

Lathum had to realize that bulletsponge was going to vote for him, just to save his own behind and Lathum was the closest in votes to him at the time. So at the time Lathum gave bulletsponge his vote that made it 5-4 so all he needed was one more person (perhaps a wolf on his side) to vote for bulletsponge as a last ditch vote to pretty much guaranteed victory.

Needless to say, I am taking Lathum's theories under advisory, but am not willing to clear him from my wolf list just yet.

I wish. It would be the most action I've had in a long time.

Checking in. I had a sick day yesterday, so I might have to catch up on some stuff at work today.

I agree with this mostly... and since I voted for Lathum yeasterday....

vote lathum

Dola - I've finished reading through the night's activities. And all I have to say for myself is.....seriously?

I make a random first day vote with a smart ass reason for doing so, and all of a sudden a wolf?

Well what the hell else should I do? Stand around and let myself get lynched?

If I was a wolf it would have been easy to get me lynched yesterday.

what do you agree with exactly?

I'm not sure I know anyone who wouldn't vote for the vote leader to save themselves.

Hrm, not a good start.

I get Lathum's analysis, but have some points

- I voted Jackal as a "welcome", I repeated that multiple times. When it came time for me to leave for the day, I pondered moving to a consolidation. But the catch is, I didn't really think any of the leading vote getters were wolves either (it was bullet, olie and Lathum). So it seemed pretty silly of me to move my vote and cast a much more significant one onto someone I didn't really think was a wolf.

- To take Lathum's analysis a step further, I cast the first vote at Jackal, but why would Farrah follow up with a 2nd one unless she seriously wanted Jackal in the discussion. I'd think those two aren't working together, and Farrah's 2nd vote for Jackal stinks more to me than Jackal's vote back on me (which was the same line of thinking as my vote on him).

- The person on Lathum's list (which I agree with minus of course, my inclusion since that is incorrect) is finkenst. He came on, late in the day and basically threw his vote away on a completely new person. He also didn't post hardly at all, I think he posted more in last games' thread than he has here.

Vote Finkenst

We really don't have much info so far. Therefore, I'm inclined to agree that the "wolves" directed us to go after both bullet and Lathum. This means that either Lathum is a worker or he is a member of a rival wolf group. I'm leaning towards the former right now. What's interesting, though, is that barkeep was the first to vote for bullet - and we know he's a worker.

So, I'm inclined to think there is a wolf in the set of oliegirl (110), Arles (163), Render (199), st.cronin (233), Mr. Wednesday (262). If Lathum is indeed a worker (again, a stretch now - but it's reasonable given what little info we have), laphamsa (97), bsak16 (162), SnDvls (207) or Passacaglia (238) could also be a wolf. Even though this list of 9 includes me, I'm thinking it's the most reasonable starting point.

Right now, we need to start finding groups out. Here's how the vote started:

Clap - Lathum (90)
Bullet - Barkeep (95), Oile (110)
Lathum - Clap (97)
Olie - Alan (123), Schmidty (134)
Barkeep - path (130)
Schmidty - Mauboy (135)
Pass - ntn (136)
ntn - Pass (147)
Jackal - jeheinz (148)
jeheinz - Bullet (152)

We know that Bullet and Barkeep are OK - which would raise the interest level in Olie and Path. Still, the fact that Barkeep voted for Bullet leads me not to read too much there. At this point everything was spread out and there were many ways to go. Here's the next set of voting:

Clap - Lathum (90)(160)
Bullet 3 - Barkeep (95), Oile (110), Arles (163)
Lathum 2 - Clap (97), bsak (162)
Olie 3 - Alan (123), Schmidty (134), Lathum (160)
Barkeep - path (130)
Schmidty - Mauboy (135)
Pass - ntn (136)
ntn - Pass (147)
Jackal - jeheinz (148)
jeheinz - Bullet (152)

Now, this puts me in the crosshairs a bit as I voted for Bullet, I am not worried by Lathum's vote as changing from Clap (1 vote) to Olie (2-3 v) is a way to prevent him from being voted off. Again, if we assume Lathum is good, bsak's vote is also questionable (like mine).

Next set:
bulletsponge -- Barkeep49 (95), oliegirl (110), Arles (163), RendeR (199), Lathum (227)
Lathum -- claphamsa (97), bsak16 (162), SnDvls (207)
oliegirl -- Alan T (123), Schmidty (134), Lathum (160)
Barkeep49 -- path12 (130)
Schmidty -- mauboy1 (135)
Passacaglia -- ntndeacon (136)
ntndeacon -- Passacaglia (147)
The Jackal -- jeheinz72 (148), Farrah Whitworth-Rahn (208)
jeheinz72 -- bulletsponge (152)

This is the best knowledge set, IMO. Prior to this point, we had Bullet and Olie at 3, with Lathum at 2. After this vote, it moved to Bullet at 4, Lathum at 3 and Ollie at 3. At that point, seeing Lathum switch to Bullet makes sense to save his bacon. But the votes that interest me ate RendeR and SnDvls. IMO, it made sense to go for either Ollie or Bullet at that point and they chose Bullet and Lathum. We know Bullet is safe, which means that RendeR's vote made the difference in voting off Bullet over Ollie. SnDvls' vote could have put Lathum on the blocks had he not switched.

Next, we had two pile on votes by St. Cronin (bullet) and Pass (unvoted ntn for bullet) that helped ensure Bullet goes (with bullet switching to Lathum to save his bacon). Mr Wed also piled on later

So, if you avoid Lathum's status, you end up with these people being potential wolves:
RendeR
Cronin
Pass
Mr Wed
Arles

If you think Lathum is good (or a faction wolf), then SnDvls is also questionable.

Now, I have the advantage of knowing I am not a wolf. So, I also am going to continue the line of thinking that Lathum is a worker. If those two assumptions are true, and you factor in timing, who they voted for and who was "saved", I'm inclined to go with these three as the most likely wolves:

RendeR
SnDvls
Olie

I chose RendeR as he started the run on Bullet (who we know is safe). I chose SnDvls as he setup the run to be Bullet and Lathum. And I chose Olie as it seemed the "second group of voters" (who I think involve some wolves) seemed to prefer saving her and going after Bullet and Lathum.

With all that in mind, I choose to:

Vote RendeR

Here is one other thing that has struck me as odd. The next vote after Lathum put his on bulletsponge was St. Cronin (who didn't say much at all in the thread all day). Fast forward to the time after the lynching he is the first one to cast a vote after Lathum's so called detailed analysis. Does he want to get his vote in first since he knows that Lathum could be one of the targets for today? He was involved with saving Lathum's butt on day 1.

Also Lathum before you changed your vote, bulletsponge (who did not vote for you so you can't say it a payback vote) was leading with 4 votes, with you and oliegirl tied at 3 votes a piece. There was no need to panic that early on unless you knew that you and one of your buddies could team up and get rid of someone else.

I don't understand your reasoning for thinking that wolves would target other wolves this early in the game? Why wouldn't they want to get rid of the excess office workers before going after one another?

Finally, Lathum changed his vote 3 times. He first voted clap, then oliegirl, and finished up on bulletsponge. Is it because he is unsure or because he is a wolf and wants to come off as a confused villager?

Holy crap. Not only am I a bad WW player, I am also lazy enough to not even read Arlie's post. Then again, I'm going to bed soon, so I guess I wouldn't comprehend it anyway. :)

Dola. I'm always amazed by the amount of stuff people get out of day 1 votes/results.

I stated when I voted for Bulletsponge that I had to go to class and needed to get a self preservation vote in.

they can only kill each other every third night. If they can get an member of the opposition killed during the day that is a huge bonus for them.

I was the first person to cast a vote for anyone. Go back and look through some of the games, I am always one of the first to cast a vote. I like to get things going early on. IMO a late day one vote can only make you look suspiscous.

I will also often change my day 1 vote if I see a reason to change it. I went to Oliegirl because I saw something in Schmidtys vote that pinged me and I also wanted to see a couple of clear candidates emerge.

I switched to BS to save my ass, again I ask, wouldn't anyone else have done the same thing?

Tension. The other white meat.

That wasn't funny, and I have no idea what it meant, so i should probably leave now. After I have another steak taquito. I'm addicted and I need to gain weight, so it's perfect.

Why am I babbling? Because it's better than drinking a martini before bed. No idea what that meant either.

Vote Sanity

Yeah, it took about 3 different times over 30 minutes to finish it. I was waiting on responses and some paperwork for a meeting and had time to kill. I figure if I have nothing to hide, why not dump all my logic on the table for everyone to see?

**cough**PROGAME**cough**

Vote Schmidty again.

I'm going to stay this way until I see legitimate stuff to go on. I like what Arles has put together though, for future reference. I probably won't be changing again today though.

Agreed

I can't really argue with Arles' analysis beyond stating that I am not a wolf of either faction and I hold no role for the office workers either, so I am expendible as far as primary roles go.

However, re-reading that same analysis would seem to point out that SnDvls makes more sense as a starting point than voting for me. he had the choice of voting for BS or Olie (the two fairly obvious picks as they were the real front runner) and isntead chose to vote lathum and bring a 3rd player into the front running group.

I voted for BS for 2 reasons:
#1 I needed a Day 1 vote and with no real info to go on I looked at who had the most votes.

#2 BS made the stupid mistake of drawing attention to himself right away with the licking thing, so a vote for him was as good of a Day 1 vote as for anyone else.

As for other things, I really dislike the fact that Cronin and Lathum are agreeing so thoroughly so early in this game. I trust both of them about as far as I can throw my college campus. Seeing that really tripped my alarms.

So for now, since I don't see any other really viable reasons to vote for anyone I will follow my own statements here and:

VOTE SNDVLS

I must say I find Crnin;s behavior towards me baffiling as well. He usualy wants me dead.

I think RendeR's analysis is solid and I have voted him off before when he was just a villager/worker. If I wasn't voting for him, I would be voting for SNDVLS so I could see changing my vote that way if enough people follow suit.

I would go into this in more detail, but I need to work on the pro game ;)

A lot to absorb today, Arles post is awesome and I think there is some good information in there. I'm going to hold off on voting today until a little later...I'd like to see some more reaction to what Arles had to say...

I like most of the analysis I've read today, and don't have a bunch more to add to it but to say that one thing we need to keep in mind is that those who push lynch candidates have a good chance of being wolves trying to get the other team. So while the analysis is good, it also doesn't clear the person giving it.

That said, I'm still puzzled and suspicious of Fink's throwaway vote late and his relative silence so far in the game. Strikes me of someone trying not to make a mistake.

VOTE FINKENST

So you think wolves will push onto eachother... Ok I agree!

So why are you voting for finkfest? he just tossed out a random vote..... which was silly, but I dont see how that makes him bad.

I guess Im confused becasue you made a good point, then igorned it

I got my eye on you, clappy.

I'm still digesting all this, but I'd like the record to indicate that I voted for Lathum, not bullet.

Also, what does it mean to say "If you think Lathum is good (or a faction wolf)" -- what could he be, other than those two things?

I wish bullet would have fought a little harder to not get voted out. He had a decent role. Ah, well.

Well, I don't have anything to go on other than day 1 votes so far. As I mentioned yesterday, he spent quite a while boning up on WW last game and asking very good questions, and then for this one he comes in late and pleads ignorance and puts in a throwaway vote. It strikes me as a first time wolf trying not to make a mistake.

why?

hjhmm, well that is a good explanation.

Good point, but the point wasn't to find Lathum's identity, it was to focus on if you think Lathum was a wolf target. See, IMO, I think Lathum and Bullet were "wolf targets" while Olie was not. Now, that doesn't necessarily mean that Olie is a wolf, but I think we can gather info based on who voted for Lathum and Bullet (esp Bullet).

Again, we don't have a ton of info to this point, but the fact that everyone had 3 choices early on (Olie, Lathum, Bullet) and the pile-on guys virtually ignored Olie gives a little window into the idea that wolves were trying to influence the vote on Bullet and Lathum - but away from Olie. It's just a theory, but it's the best one I have right now.

When you put it that way, it does look a little fishy for olie, but I don't think the wolves are going to bandwagon that much one day. I'm pretty sure olie should be safe from our suspicion, so I'm kind of looking at RendeR. What made you vote for him in particular?

Because of my lazy eye.

Before RendeR and SnDvls voted, it was Bullet-3, Olie-3, Lathum-2. Then, within 8 posts of each other, Render voted for Bullet and SnDvls voted for Lathum. That made it Bullet-4, Olie-3, Lathum-3. Lathum, being a smart player, quickly moved from Olie to Bullet to give himself more breathing space. That made it Bullet-5, Lathum-3, Olie-2. So, it seems that those two votes (RendeR and SnDvls) pretty much dictated who went off (Bullet). Now, it could be just chance, but the selection of Bullet over Olie by RendeR turned the tide. And if you think there's a decent chance Olie is a wolf, that vote by RendeR looks even more questionable.

Arles, are you disputing this vote count? I don't understand how it fits with what you said.

I think I'm seeing some of where you're coming from, plus there was probably an unvote on olie that doesn't show up. But how does SnDvls vote make it so that bullet went off? I don't think olie is a wolf, so by your thinking I'm less inclined to look at RendeR, but by my thinking, I feel like I should be more inclined to look at him. Maybe I'll think better when I have food in me -- stupid co-workers being too busy to get lunch.

I am a little suspicious of the amount of day to theories put out there. However I think Iam going with the idea that wolves will be going after wolves on day two if not with thier main vote at least with throwing thier name up as suspicious. I am at the moment a little less trusting of Arles so I will go with that assumption and go with one of his probable wolves.

Vote SnDvls

I'm confused by this. You have less trust of Arles so you vote for one of his wolf candidates?

Wow Arlie, you have actually made some good points about SnDvls. & RendeR When Iooked at the votes I didn't look that far back, but now seeing that it makes SnDvls & RendeR really suspicious. So much that it might sway me from my day 1 vote of Lathum.

Okay I've read and re-read some points being made on here and I still keep coming back to the St.Cronin-Lathum similarities I made earlier. So I am going to stick with my vote from yesterday unless someone (besides Lathum) has a good argument on why I should change.

VOTE LATHUM

I think Arles might be reading too much into early votes, but the analysis of what happened with RendeR's vote is still very interesting.

VOTE RENDER

Here's my vote count:

Well that didn't turn out very well. Votee on the left, voters on the right.

So we have 5 people with 2 votes each??? Wow.

Yeah, it definitely sucks, for those of us looking to make a vote in the next hour or so. You have any thoughts so far, olie? I don't think I've heard much from you today, and after last game, it might be a better idea if you vote right before me, instead of right after! :)