If Trump Loses In November, What Do You Think Happens Next
 

Thought this would be an interesting split-out discussion, possibly for reference later. Poll coming...

My guess is he will contest regardless if he loses by a small or large margin.

If large margin, doubt there will be any crisis regardless of how he tries to spin it. The GOP party will acknowledge that even if there is "perceived" irregularities, it didn't make a difference.

If its a small margin, there'll be a "crisis". Lawyers will get involved, possibly a recount etc, and maybe SCOTUS will get involved. But all of that will be resolved by Jan 20.

So like the past 3.5 years, lots of drama, words thrown out, scares about use of military etc. but bottom line, the republic will survive the last Trump crisis.

I see 2 options.

1. He loses by such a landslide that he resigns before the end of the year.

2. He fights the results and has to be physically removed on 1/20.

I just don't think this guy let's anything happen normally if he loses. He is going to do something crazy.

Answered, but honestly I think it's too early to guess with much confidence.

More predictable is what would happen to Biden in this scenario.

I think he litigates anything his lawyers thinks is remotely litigatable.

I'm torn between #2 (resign without a fight) and #5 (resign after a fight.) My tendency is to think there's little/no chance that he behaves well if he loses, but that he ends up realizing what's done is done, so the best path is to quit and let President Pence give him a nice blanket pardon.

I think he'll put up a show about illegal votes for his base but he'll give up and just leave on inauguration day. He'll pardon Bannon, Flynn and his former staffers. If he resigns it would be to get a pardon from Pence but I don't think Pence would do it. Republicans will finally start to turn on him after he loses.

I used to think this way, but I'm feeling less sure of it as time goes on. More and more, R-only voters seem to be moving to becoming not as much "pro-Trump" as "Left-wingers aren't good people with whom we disagree. They are our ENEMY. And you're either for us or against us. Trump is definitely for us, so if you turn on Trump, you're also our enemy." And of course I firmly believe that most national politicians are little more than whores for power, so if they sense the same thing I'm sensing, I think they'll feel they need to stick with Team Right in order to keep their power.

He's going to file 87 lawsuits day after Election Day contesting the results, and will try to play them out as long as he can. If Dems win both Houses, he may stop earlier than if Repubs are still in control of one (or both) Houses. He'll wait and see what kind of reaction he gets from the MAGA crowd, and see if they finally give up on him or want to try to start another Civil War.

Let's not forget their may be unrevealed indictments coming for him in January, and other cases in NY with his taxes that could put him and members of his family in jail for a very long time. He's going to use whatever power of the presidency he can to prevent/delay it as long as he can. I just hope Biden/law enforcement are working on plans on what to do with him if he does resist the results. I hope journalists are watching he and his family's every move to get some idea of if he's planning on fleeing the country.

If he loses, I think he will complain about illegal voting, threaten lawsuits but not follow through, and will refuse to work with Biden on a transition but he won't resign and won't refuse to leave.

Trump's a coward, and that will be the deciding factor. He'll bluster, but he won't have the courage to risk being physically removed. I expect he'll throw a tantrum and skip the inauguration.

Honestly, I'm more worried about what happens if Trump wins the Electoral College. I don't know how many times the popular vote winner can lose and the country remain stable. At some point people will abandon a system that doesn't represent the will of the majority.

This gets to the core of why I think he'd resign--to get a pardon.

Or (hadn't thought of this option until right now,) I suppose if he loses he could even try to cut a deal with the Biden team if he doesn't think Pence would pardon him. "Hey Joe, I'll spare the country from an ugly, messy, 2-month nightmare, be a good boy, and even tell team MAGA that the people have spoken, in return for no prosecution of me or anyone else in my family."

Can't see him asking Biden for a favor. That would require admitting he's wrong which is something he's never done his entire life.

Funny I was just thinking about this question this morning myself. I think it is very likely even with the vote by mail suppression BS he losers at least by 2-3% popular vote and losers a few key states such as Florida, NC, Pennsylvania,Michigan and Minnesota that give Biden the EC victory.
I think "he fights the result all the way to January 20th. Has to be physically removed." and he stages as a patriotic act to his supporters. I think he then keeps traveling the country claiming he won and is the legitimate president to his base doing interviews and trying to stay in the media focus. He will set up shop in some place like Mel Largo and declare he is the rightful president as a modern day Jefferson Davis. I could see right wing domestic terrorist carrying out bombings and the like in his name too. The question and am not sure what happens is what will the federal government do in this sceanrio.

I think what happens in the senate and local elections will be really telling. We all know Trump losses the popular vote barring anything really sinister happening, but if Dems crush it the way they did in 2018 on a more local level I think it's a symbol people may be tired of MAGA.

Full of sound and fury signifying nothing. Bunch of rants and tweets and threats and then nothing.
Not with a Bang but a Whimper....

and then my business goes in the toilet because a D President is never good for vertical construction...

Do you do any telecom towers?

The GOP won't change after one election. It's going to take multiple defeats before they reform. It's a long way off, but if Trump loses we'll get Cotton, Hawley, Trump Jr., etc. as GOP frontrnners for the nomination.

Right now, the younger you go in the GOP the more condense the crazy. Moderation won't come quickly.

If Trump loses (a big if, despite the demise of the USA), he will give up the fight in early January, then man up and hand over the keys as he should, albeit making an awkward scene about it.

He's literally never done this. Don't know why he would start now.

I see Trump whining and throwing a fit to rile his supporters up hoping for some sort of protests and rioting. The man wants love and adoration from his supporters so pushing them to protest and riot is a form a self validation. He'll also try to put public pressure on Barr and Congress to "investigate" the election, but nothing substantial comes of it. In the end, nearly everyone in congress is going to be sick of his shit and ready to move on. Some will publicly support him all the way out the door while privately giving him the kick that sends him out that door.

I think he just complains for 2 months and then leaves at the end of the term. Well that's the hope. Going to guess there will be a lot of civil unrest though in that time.

I mean never mind the studies that range from "there is no difference" to "the economy is better under Democratic presidents"... I'm sure your "feeling" is right.

If you want justification to vote for Trump, you don't need it from us.

Other. Relatively normal transition but I think he's petty enough that he won't attend the inauguration etc. It also wouldn't surprise me if he finds a reason to leave the country on a 'foreign relations tour' sometime in January, then makes arrangements to never come back from a non-extradition country to avoid prosecution.

Plenty of fit-throwing and blaming, more than usual, but I don't see any way he fights it.

Is it possible for him to lose and not dominate news cycles eventually?

I really hope at some point he's not a daily news story.

Yes. Every president eventually fades from the headlines. Even if Trump is out there tweeting like crazy, eventually that becomes much less important than what Biden, Congress, other nations, etc. are doing.

Not unless someone convicts him of something prison-worthy with a gag order.

If he loses, he'll be on the phone with Fox and Friends in the mornings.

I am really torn on how I feel about the Biden administration and DOJ throwing the book at everything Trump.

On one hand, they are crooked AF and deserve to spend the rest of their lives in prison. Hell, most Trump supporters and enablers know they are guilty and hide behind the guise that as POTUS he should have absolute immunity, the rest feel like it is OK for him to break the law because the law is dumb.

On the other hand I don't think the first 2 years of the Biden administration should be consumed by this, and it will be, and detract from other policies and issues important to the american people. Plus it will come across as revenge to a large population and could haunt the Dems in 2024.

Yeah can't see him admitting he's wrong ever, but try to get a deal from "snowflake" Joe, playing on his empathy and sympathy for the nation to spare them any more turmoil, while getting his precious family and himself off the hook for any federal charges? I can see him trying that, but NY is not going to back down with their cases I don't think. And after all the crap he took from Trump and the Republicans with Hunter/Ukraine (and the Rs will probably still try to do once he's elected), I can't really see him backing down here either.

They aren't going to do shit. Trump and all other political elite are above the law. There is a tacit agreement between both parties on this.

Domestic terrorism is probably a given

I wouldn't be shocked to see a literal civil war break out, so I'm going with physical removal.

#1 I'm not voting for Trump and if I did I wouldn't look to anyone for justification.

#2 Man I thought you knew me better than this? I'm not talking about the economy as a whole. The economy as a whole can be equal with certain segments down and others up. Ask anyone in the construction industry and I think you will hear a consistent theme. Horizontal Construction is typically up under D Executives and Vertcial Construction is down. Under R Executives it reverses and Vertical Construction is up while Horizontal is down.

This isnt a R good D bad statement.

I mean you could sale it and say that R's give huge tax breaks to Rich Evil Corps and they invest in facilities and D's spend money on public improvement projects like roads, bridges and pipe/water projects... Im not assigning a moral value to either belief. Im just telling you that in my now 20 year career, it tracks like a trailer behind a truck my best years there has been a Bush or a Trump in the white house and my worst there has been a Clinton or a Obama in the white house. I'd even be willing to show you Tax returns to substantiate this...

Other

He fights the result and wins back the presidency (unfortunately).

If he resigns, I do not think that it will be a concession. I don't think that he will ever concede that he lost.

But I could see him complaining and moaning about non-existent fraud and, if it becomes clear that the GOP won't back him up, he will resign, saying that he won fair and square, but the media and corrupt Democrats stole it from him, and he's not going to be the chump who stays in and helps the lying cheating Democrats take over.

And (whether from NY or Florida or Russia) he spends his days on the news accusing the Democrats and media and spinless Republicans of stealing the election from him. And eventually it just becomes an article of faith among his base that he never really lost and Biden is not a legitimate president. (along with every judge Biden appoints not being a legitimate judge, etc.)

I honestly don't understand the concern about stuff like civil war. We're nowhere near that point yet. Not saying it couldn't happen eventually, but it would take catastrophes the likes of which we have not yet approached for that to happen.

Along these lines, Trump not finishing his first term is 11c right now on PredictIt

That feels about right.

And I am tempted to throw some money at it.

I see him either winning and staying or losing and leaving early.

Didn't mean to offend.

I would say that Rs DO give tax breaks but that they're ultimately meaningless in the grand scheme of construction and that Ds don't do near enough public works for my liking, but I'll defer to your expertise.

I can't even argue that its based in reality.
It's often largely not. Ive got a project right now that would be a game changer for my company. Right in our wheelhouse but much, much larger than anything we've ever done. And its capital equipment costs not manpower that are mega-sized, meaning we will do the same work, but make more profit on a 5x scale,..The equipment they want has a 12-14 week manufacturer lead time then we need 3 weeks to install and commission it minimum.

The company ranks in the Fortune 100 - so not a mom and pop - they have asked us to sign a hold price agreement and agreed to pay a cancellation fee of 1.5% if they decide not to move forward. (This is an 8 figure contract so they are potentially going to pay me many multiples of the average annual salary to not do the work)...Price hold is through 11/15. We have been told by the project sponsor "If the Presidential incumbent wins we are green lighting, if not we will defer to Q3 2021 at the earliest"

This is the most notable example in my life, but not unique at all.
Again I cant speak to the validity of the sentiment, but I just know that regularly my customers - and maybe I have a skewed base, but it matches my peers observations as well- have more spending confidence under R Presidents.

Of course I did very well 08-16 as well. No one starved and I started this company and grew tremendously. I have confidence Ill be ok either way. It may change where and how we operate but we will adapt and zig and zag as we need to. And again - I dont anticipate today voting for Trump. But I do feel my business will be better if he wins.

I get it Cu Tiger. Companies do have to be cautious till they know how much taxes may go up, and will cost of employment go up.

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I voted for other. I think he fights the election through most of November/December and then flees the country in January prior to a country without a extradition treaty such as Russia, Samoa, or Vanuatu.

And then, 200 years later when the island allows visitors again, people will marvel at the Trumpian descendants of Vanuatu and with their large size and thin orange skin.

He loses, leaves, starts his own media network, announces his candidacy for 2024, and spends the next 4 years "rallying", never shuts up and basically trolls everyone.

Don't know about starting own media network but last part is a for sure.

I really hope everyone just ignores him if he loses.

People's inability to ignore Trump is how he became President in the first place.

I voted #1, but I don't think he shows up for the inauguration, and has limited conversations with Biden...

This fits me too, I guess I'm responding with option 3 above. Ever the optimist, this one.

I would have gone with the former being a higher possibility prior to the pandemic paranoia. That insanity has not skipped over any segment of the population so I don't know that critical mass with necessary resolve exists beyond skirmish capability at this point.

If he has to be forcibly removed, who removes him?

SI

Secret Service under Pelosis orders?

We could just pay a Dominatrix (who looks like Ivanka) to order him out.

Perhaps the most telling part of this poll, though not surprising is how as of right now 5% think Trump does the minimum necessary for a dignified transition. 95% think something else.

Or he could flee to one of his homelands: the UK or Germany.

US MIlitary? At noon (?) on inauguration day the former president no longer has the legal right to be in the White House, so technically he'd be trespassing and could be arrested.

I think at that point, we're past technicalities

SI

Yeah, at a point laws and regulations are just things written down on paper.

To an extent, but in the event Trump refuses to leave office on inauguration day (and I think the chances are incredibly remote), Biden still becomes the Commander in Chief and has the authority to direct the Chiefs of Staff of the service branches. I don't see clear unlawful orders being followed and I don't see lawful orders by the Commander in Chief being ignored. Even Trump isn't stupid enough to test that pissing match.

I suspect if Trump has to be removed the Chiefs of Staff would take great pleasure in doing so

I think they made that pretty clear a couple of months ago, thankfully

SI

Aside from litigation, I realized that Trump will probably order his cronies to fire or force retire anyone they can to hamstring the incoming administration (plus if the Democrats don’t get the senate then Mitch will block all appointments).

He’ll want to ensure major damage before he’s forced out.

Absolutely. That way he can spend the first 18 months of the Biden admin screaming incompetence when really it's just fixing all the problems.

I still think Trump is a coward that will slink away after a defeat, but after this I am the State! convention is making me a little less confident of that.

I think it's awfully optimistic to think he's going to lose the election even though he will get fewer votes and would lose the electoral college in a fair election.

SI

That's kind of what I am feeling this morning.

Anything short of a Biden blowout gives the GOP a chance to steal the election. And this does not feel like Biden blowout territory right now.

I mean, I think he's going to lose and lose by like 8 in a fair election, which would be a blowout. But I also think there are going to be ballots "lost in the mail", lots of closed voting places that are selected with evil precision, and some Diebold machines that just show some irregularities but there's nothing conclusive (for instance, in Texas, I don't get any receipt for who/what I voted for - I could have just recorded 1 vote for Biden or 6 for Trump in the computer and I have no way of knowing).

SI

I have the same fear, but I also think he's going to lose so badly that he can't stop it. For instance, there will be places where he thinks he's going to win and he won't. If he thinks he's going to win there, he won't mess with the results.

I absolutely agree with this. Incumbents mostly win.

I don't think we can use history as an example here.

Has there ever been someone so unqualified for the job and done such a horrible job as the incumbent?

And with typically red states like Texas and Arizona (where I live) in play this year I have concerns about the mail. Especially here where 67% of the votes came through early mail in voting before the pandemic. It was a shit show here in 2018 in the Sinema / McSally race and Trump was crying foul over that.

If people come out for this election, at the very least, there will be plausible doubt cast on the outcome if any issues come to light in these close states. And in the powder keg that is America right now, that worries me a lot!

I'm actually kindof hoping for this kind of incompetence.

Trump campaign: "We should win Wisconsin by 3 so don't mess with the results because that takes effort"
Election Night: "And we're calling Wisconsin for Biden after record turnout at the polls and a crazy number of mail-in ballots that had built him an near-insurmountable lead before the day even began"

SI

GOP v. DEM aside, this is insane to me.

In NC, we get a scantron form.

It is scanned in, so you can get a quick tabulation. But then you have the boxes of paper ballots which are sealed up so you can do an audit.

2000 was the first year I voted, so I have always done it here in Indiana. It was been the same every year. They are touch screen computers with a big red button to push when you're done. Then 1 or 2 confirmations that you're done.

The lack of a paper trail is insane. Just crazy. Makes no sense.

Since you brought that up...

Federal complaint force upgrade of Indiana voting machines

And a "better" outcome would be a clear win by a candidate who losses the popular votes by millions. I don't think that happens for the third time this century and things end peacefully.

If the GOP is so adept at stealing elections, why didn't they steal the '18 midterms?

They did. See GA.

I generally don't think actual votes are being changed, it's more about supression of voters, but GA looks fishy as can be. They mixed really blatant voter suppression with hard to explain voting system use. I think it's pretty likely that in a fair election Abrams would have won.

Or North Carolina

North Carolina GOP Operative Faces New Ballot Tampering Charges : NPR

I know there were cases like that, my point is that they weren't able to move the needle on the overall national picture. It wasn't for lack of trying. This idea that it's Biden blowout or they steal it requires a level of fraud/suppression/whatever several orders of magnitude higher to be vaguely credible.

I guess we'll know in November. But the stakes for President are much higher so you don't want to tip your hand too early. They've also had 2 extra years of practice.

I mean, the USPS stuff is blatant as can be.

SI

Who is saying that? If it's within 4 or 5 points, historically a pretty big margin, it's possible Trump could win the electoral college legitimately. Add in what we absolutely know, disinformation campaigns, Russian influence, threats of law enforcement at polls, threats f post-election lawsuits, voter roll purges, USPS problems, etc., and Biden could win by a greater margin than even Clinton and still lose. There isn't any need to change or throw out millions of votes, they just need to do enough to win two or three states they would otherwise lose narrowly.

This was posted at 9:28 this morning. I don't say that to single him out; similar thoughts have been stated going back months. Multiple posters have repeatedly stated that Trump is going to win, not might but is, because no matter what he'll find a way to steal it.

What I've been talking about purposefully understated that case as a guard against being hyperbolic.


Only in the sense that it's also possible Martians will invade tomorrow. Losing the popular vote and winning the electoral college has happened twice in modern history. One was razor-thin (Bush-Gore), and Hillary won by just over 2% and it still took a lot of things falling against her to lose the EC. I would take a thousand-to-one odds, and I'm not sure it isn't more like a million-to-one, against anybody losing the EC while winning the popular vote by 4%+ in, say, the next couple of decades.

Well it has to be a blowout when there's a decent chance that a +4 or +5 popular vote margin could lose the electoral college.

And it should matter that Trump and the GOP have already told us that they are planning to challenge voters all over the country, that we know the Russians are interfering again, that we know state level GOPers are purging voter rolls in multiple states. This stuff isn't even in contention.

Bumping this...

Dammit, Ben

SI

Also, it's kindof crazy that someone looks around at all this (gestures wildly at pandemic, economy, civil unrest, economy disparity, environmental disasters) and says "This. This right here. This is the world I'd give my life to keep from changing!"

SI

Humpty bumpty. Poll closes in one week. (10am Election Day)

While I remain worried about every path this could take, the rising-fast concern is that the actual electoral college - the meeting of the people selected by each state as electors to do their duty - will itself become a major point of contention this cycle. We saw a crack in the curtain last time with a handful of "faithless electors" and since we've been burning down norms for the last few years, why stop here? Of course there is a pending strategy to discredit, misdirect, or hijack this process. Probably several.

Very nice article that breaks down some of trumps behaviors, and looks at how he might respond in the event he is not elected to a second term.


What happens when a narcissist loses? Expect "rage" and "terror," psychologists warn | Salon.com

This is a matter of perspective I think. Modern, prosperous countries tend to easily forget how much worse matters can get and how little separates us from them getting that way.

He hasn't lost yet, but it's looking like options 3-6 above are in play.

Attention Required! | Cloudflare

I really cannot blame him for fighting this. This is massive.

Hillary 2016 ~66m votes
Trump 2016 ~63m
Trump 2020 ~68m

Forward to now a candidate that has problems remembering where he is. His mental acuity is slipping. The enthusiasm was not high for Biden, yet has he really honestly garnered- 72m votes and they're still counting?? Poll watchers are not allowed to come close to view ballots and have been sent away.

If you're measuring Dem enthusiasm strictly in relation to Biden then you've already fooled yourself.

+1

I would have voted 3rd party this year, had one of the choices not been a wanna be authoritarian despot with no regard at all for the constitution.

Biden at least has some respect across the aisle, will reach out to work with others and get us on a track to normalcy so we can hopefully reset in 2024.

And edit: How anyone can be sucked into the "steal the election" nonsense is beyond me. Everybody knew how this would play out, even Trump which is why he has spent weeks riling up the gullible to create unnecessary dissent and chaos. The system is not 100% foolproof, but it is certainly reliable enough to accurately deliver the will of the people far beyond any potential fraud (or honest mistakes which is the usual scenario for voting errors) would have played.

So yes, 72M and counting are sick of the carnival barker that has been running the country the last 4 years and want someone to restore the American way of life.

The mental health angle is what you want to hang your hat on?

Dems are so good at stealing elections that they can hardly win any.

Same. I didn't vote for Hillary in 2016, but did just cast a vote for Biden, and I certainly wouldn't ever have said I'm enthused about him.

Forgot to take the Senate while they were committing fraud. Morons.

I'm not sure you're real, but if you are...

Actually, enthusiasm was super high.