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albionmoonlight 03-01-2021 04:09 PM

NFL 2021 Regular Season Thread
 
Thomkal noted in the NFL 2020 season thread that we probably needed to start a new one. There's some JJ Watt talk over there that maybe a mod could move over here.

One guy I am interested in seeing what happens to is Trey Hendrickson.

He's a former 3rd round pick DE from Florida Atlantic. The book on him has been that he has a ceiling to his athleticism, but he plays incredibly hard. (And, yes, every white player from a small school is described as unathletic and a hard worker. But that's really all you hear about him from the coaches and local media. The guy plays every practice rep like it's the 4th quarter of the Super Bowl. Even in a world where "great motor" is thrown around too much, apparently he really does have a notably amazing motor)

He's only 26 years old, and he's going into unrestricted free agency. And he just put up 13.5 sacks.

But if you really break down the numbers, you see that he got a lot of those sacks against single-team blocks b/c other guys on the D-line got extra attention.

And his high motor means that he's probably at or close to his ceiling.

I think that he's much more of a high-energy rotation guy/average starter than a double digit sack guy. If I had to predict, I would say that this season was a an outlier.

But, he's a 26-year-old DE with double digit sacks hitting unrestricted free agency. And those don't really ever hit the market.

So I am interested to see if some team overpays for him. All it would take is two teams to get into a bidding war to give him stupid money.

Or, do all 32 teams see him like I do?

Like I said, I'm interested to see where he ends up and for how much.

RendeR 03-01-2021 09:00 PM

All I know thus far is that if the Bengal's take another skill position player instead of the best possible OL available I just might jump ship to the bills for a few years.

I love the QB, I like the offense.

but for fucks sake stop talking about a worthless fucking overated TE and get the LINE FIXED!!!!


/end rant

QuikSand 03-01-2021 10:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight (Post 3328816)
But, he's a 26-year-old DE with double digit sacks hitting unrestricted free agency. And those don't really ever hit the market.

So I am interested to see if some team overpays for him. All it would take is two teams to get into a bidding war to give him stupid money.

Or, do all 32 teams see him like I do?

Like I said, I'm interested to see where he ends up and for how much.


Same, I agree he's an intriguing prospect for the same reasons. I think there's NO chance that he gets overlooked here... he will have to get a fat deal, maybe not for a lot of years, but I feel confident he will land a fat paycheck based on that seemingly immense promise.

One other facet... players being let loose by teams in cap hell (like the Saints) lack the stigma of "well, they must know something" that others might carry.

Fool's gold. Have fun, Jags.

QuikSand 03-01-2021 10:23 PM

Last year, in the early phases of COVID, I ended up getting more into the draft than I ever had before, and I really liked it. So, I'm planning to try to do so again, if real life scheduling permits it. It's a fun sidelight.

I root for the Dolphins in real life, to a large degree, and they are a totally fascinating team to watch right now. Another year with a load of early picks makes it so, a young team with needs (but some real pieces to build around) definitely helps.

Right now, I'm strongly in favor of Chase > Waddle/Smith if the target is a WR as rumored (and which I support). I would be very open to sensibly trading down from pick 1.3 a few/several slots and still getting... Waddle, TE Pitts, or maybe LB Parsons.

QuikSand 03-01-2021 10:30 PM

My Dolphins Mock Draft, no trades:

3.
Miami Dolphins
Ja'Marr Chase
WR, LSU

18.
Miami Dolphins
Christian Darrisaw
OT, Virginia Tech

36.
Miami Dolphins
Trevon Moehrig
S, TCU

50.
Miami Dolphins
Javonte Williams
RB, North Carolina

81.
Miami Dolphins
Jabril Cox
LB, LSU

via Mock Draft Machine | The Draft Network

PilotMan 03-01-2021 10:41 PM

Nice to see Jarbil Cox getting a good look. He was such a beast at NDSU. Huge part of that defense. I get why he transferred, but it still sucked that he couldn't stay and finish it off with us.

albionmoonlight 03-02-2021 06:11 AM

Quik: How do you see Tua going forward? That seems to be the billion dollar question for the Dolphins. Based on your mock, I assume you are happy to keep riding with him?

QuikSand 03-02-2021 07:41 AM

On Tua, I think the reasoned take is to lower expectations, but not trash them. I think in my mind, I still see his floor being something like... maybe young/prime Andy Dalton, a competent and careful QB who can steer a good team pretty far. And I still think the original upside is there, it's just more hidden than it seemed before. The 2020 season, with an OC who didn't trust the young QB to use the whole playbook, is a weird data point, but not the only one.

With that in mind, I am open (more than many fans) to a trade for Watson. I'm actually more in love with the 1.3 pick than I am with Tua at this point, but that's human nature I guess. But if they could land Watson for Tua, 1.3, and another 1st... I think I would do it. Watson is pretty young and performing right around the upside you might hope for from Tua, and they have the cap framework to absorb Watson's contract. So, I'd do that, more or less. If the price tag is way higher, maybe not, but I am sellable there.

I would love to have a hero on the team, a guy I could root for for a decade, a face of the franchise. It's been quite a while. However, I would also be pretty happy to have a team built "fundamentally sound" and able to contend every year based on a sharp front office, including one that senses when its name players are not worth the huge contracts.

albionmoonlight 03-02-2021 08:12 AM



Dan Campbell will either be the worst coach in the league or the best.

bhlloy 03-02-2021 08:34 AM

I can tell you which one if you’d like

NobodyHere 03-02-2021 08:41 AM

Dan Campbell is an alpha and the Lions will finish omega.

I don't think I've ever been this depressed about a Lions season.

Honolulu_Blue 03-02-2021 08:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bhlloy (Post 3328849)
I can tell you which one if you’d like


The best? Yeah?

Honolulu_Blue 03-02-2021 09:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NobodyHere (Post 3328850)
Dan Campbell is an alpha and the Lions will finish omega.

I don't think I've ever been this depressed about a Lions season.


While I am not yet on the Dan Campbell or Jared Goff trains (I doubt I'll ever be on the Goff train), anything is better than Quinntricia. I couldn't stand them. I'd much rather have a crazy-ass knee-biter than that smug, idiotic smarter-than-everyone-else pencil- behind-the-ear dude.

The Lions are in pretty bad shape with respect to the cap thanks to Quinn, have probably the worst defense talent-wise in the league, may have no wide receivers of note, and a very mediocre baby-handed quarterback, but at least, I hope, they have a plan and people who can execute it. They were never going to be bad enough to get good with Stafford, so hopefully they will be with Goff and maybe things will finally get better.

Honolulu_Blue 03-02-2021 09:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight (Post 3328816)
Thomkal noted in the NFL 2020 season thread that we probably needed to start a new one. There's some JJ Watt talk over there that maybe a mod could move over here.

One guy I am interested in seeing what happens to is Trey Hendrickson.

He's a former 3rd round pick DE from Florida Atlantic. The book on him has been that he has a ceiling to his athleticism, but he plays incredibly hard. (And, yes, every white player from a small school is described as unathletic and a hard worker. But that's really all you hear about him from the coaches and local media. The guy plays every practice rep like it's the 4th quarter of the Super Bowl. Even in a world where "great motor" is thrown around too much, apparently he really does have a notably amazing motor)

He's only 26 years old, and he's going into unrestricted free agency. And he just put up 13.5 sacks.

But if you really break down the numbers, you see that he got a lot of those sacks against single-team blocks b/c other guys on the D-line got extra attention.

And his high motor means that he's probably at or close to his ceiling.

I think that he's much more of a high-energy rotation guy/average starter than a double digit sack guy. If I had to predict, I would say that this season was a an outlier.

But, he's a 26-year-old DE with double digit sacks hitting unrestricted free agency. And those don't really ever hit the market.

So I am interested to see if some team overpays for him. All it would take is two teams to get into a bidding war to give him stupid money.

Or, do all 32 teams see him like I do?

Like I said, I'm interested to see where he ends up and for how much.


From The Athletic:

He’s a tricky player to project. Hendrickson finished second league-wide with 13.5 sacks and tied for eighth with 25 quarterback hits. But according to Brandon Thorn’s True Sack Rate, just three of Hendrickson’s sacks were high quality. In other words, he benefited from coverage sacks and clean-up sacks where teammates produced the initial pressure. Hendrickson had never played more than 38 percent of the defensive snaps in a season prior to 2020, when he was on the field 53 percent of the time. Teams will have to weigh his 2020 production against previous years to determine whether Hendrickson is a one-year wonder or an ascending player. He had 6.5 sacks and 18 QB hits during his first three seasons.

larrymcg421 03-02-2021 09:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand (Post 3328846)
On Tua, I think the reasoned take is to lower expectations, but not trash them. I think in my mind, I still see his floor being something like... maybe young/prime Andy Dalton, a competent and careful QB who can steer a good team pretty far. And I still think the original upside is there, it's just more hidden than it seemed before. The 2020 season, with an OC who didn't trust the young QB to use the whole playbook, is a weird data point, but not the only one.

With that in mind, I am open (more than many fans) to a trade for Watson. I'm actually more in love with the 1.3 pick than I am with Tua at this point, but that's human nature I guess. But if they could land Watson for Tua, 1.3, and another 1st... I think I would do it. Watson is pretty young and performing right around the upside you might hope for from Tua, and they have the cap framework to absorb Watson's contract. So, I'd do that, more or less. If the price tag is way higher, maybe not, but I am sellable there.

I would love to have a hero on the team, a guy I could root for for a decade, a face of the franchise. It's been quite a while. However, I would also be pretty happy to have a team built "fundamentally sound" and able to contend every year based on a sharp front office, including one that senses when its name players are not worth the huge contracts.


Pretty much +1 to all of this.

I think many of Tua's issues, especially checking down too much and playing it safe, can be minimized if he has a breakaway WR and a full camp.

Lathum 03-02-2021 11:33 AM

I think Tua is going to be a bust. I didn't see him do one thing well last year. He got benched for Fitz, and looked scared out there.

I'm not sure he was ever that good. He benefited playing behind an NFL offensive line and throwing to probably the greatest collection of WRs a college QB has ever had. Mac Jones was every bit as good as Tua evert was this year, and is he considered just as good?

albionmoonlight 03-02-2021 12:17 PM

I think that the Andy Dalton comparison for Tua is good. I would have said Alex Smith or Ryan Tannehill. A guy who can take a good team far, but probably not going to be the Tanking for Tua superstar that we all thought his junior year.

albionmoonlight 03-02-2021 12:19 PM

FWIW, I also think that all of the smoke around Russell Wilson leaving Seattle does not have any fire behind it.

Russ was signaling to the team "Hey, y'all get serious about getting me an offensive line." It feels much more like negotiating through the media than a real threat to leave.

In contrast, I don't think that Watson is going to play another snap for the Texans. He'll sit out the whole year if he has to. That relationship seems beyond broken.

QuikSand 03-02-2021 04:13 PM

Back to Watson... PFF has a mock draft up showing MIA dealing for Watson, and their projected compensation is:

Quote:

Miami receives: Deshaun Watson

Houston receives: Tua Tagovailoa (remember this for later), Xavien Howard, Pick Nos. 3 and 18 and another future first-rounder

Yeah, that's probably up to and past my "worth it" line, but who knows.



via: https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2021-...tlanta-falcons

QuikSand 03-02-2021 04:18 PM

...and just musing here, but if that's what some wiseguys think that Miami might have to pay to get Watson... what does a team like, say, Washington have to put up to get him? They don't have the super-exciting early pick this year, nor the just-drafted-QB-prospect that Miami does. What would they have to pay" Double Ditka and then some?

I mean, I get it... a great young QB just does not become available in the NFL. I guess if this guy actually does, he deserves to command more in trade than just Joey Galloway or even Khalil Mack.

Lathum 03-02-2021 04:19 PM

If you are the Dolphins you do that in a heartbeat. Watson is a generational talent. Take the proven commodity.

Lathum 03-02-2021 04:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand (Post 3328902)
...and just musing here, but if that's what some wiseguys think that Miami might have to pay to get Watson... what does a team like, say, Washington have to put up to get him? They don't have the super-exciting early pick this year, nor the just-drafted-QB-prospect that Miami does. What would they have to pay" Double Ditka and then some?

I mean, I get it... a great young QB just does not become available in the NFL. I guess if this guy actually does, he deserves to command more in trade than just Joey Galloway or even Khalil Mack.


It would start with Chase Young and at least 3 first round picks.

AlexB 03-02-2021 04:25 PM

That’s a long way past mine! I reckon this is a year to draft a bunch of extra weapons, give Tua a full season, hopefully after a relatively normal preseason (remember he hasn’t had one yet) and then if we need a QB sell the farm for the next couple of years for a QB next offseason

That way we can hopefully have a nucleus of young players that means we can afford to trade future drafts: if we trade this years picks, there’s no way of getting & affording the weapons Watson needs this year or next, and it’s more middle of the road stagnation.

OK, it won’t be Watson next offseason, but this way we might find Tua is the man, but if not and we draft well we might not need a top tier QB, we might just need a 2nd tier guy who should cost less too.

Lathum 03-02-2021 04:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AlexB (Post 3328906)

That way we can hopefully have a nucleus of young players that means we can afford to trade future drafts: if we trade this years picks, there’s no way of getting & affording the weapons Watson needs this year or next, and it’s more middle of the road stagnation.

.


Plenty of weapons available in the later rounds. The dolphins are a lot better and won't have the kind of equity in draft picks they have with not only the 3rd, but a QB taken top 5 they can send over. This is the best chance they have got at landing a top 5 QB just entering his prime.

Carman Bulldog 03-02-2021 07:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight (Post 3328868)
FWIW, I also think that all of the smoke around Russell Wilson leaving Seattle does not have any fire behind it.

Russ was signaling to the team "Hey, y'all get serious about getting me an offensive line." It feels much more like negotiating through the media than a real threat to leave.

In contrast, I don't think that Watson is going to play another snap for the Texans. He'll sit out the whole year if he has to. That relationship seems beyond broken.


Have you read The Athletic breakdown on it by Michael-Shawn Dugar? I have not (and have let my subscription lapse) but he was on the Around the NFL podcast and apparently there have been breadcrumbs put out there for awhile about it. He's actually projecting more 2022 rather than this year, the caveat being that if the Seahawks have more success (ie. a run to the Super Bowl) things could obviously change.

albionmoonlight 03-04-2021 12:26 PM

Maybe a bit more fire there than I've suspected . . .


Vince, Pt. II 03-04-2021 01:04 PM

That seems insane to me.

larrymcg421 03-04-2021 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand (Post 3328900)
Back to Watson... PFF has a mock draft up showing MIA dealing for Watson, and their projected compensation is:



Yeah, that's probably up to and past my "worth it" line, but who knows.



via: 2021 NFL Mock Draft: Panthers move up for BYU QB Zach Wilson, LSU WR Ja'Marr Chase heads to Atlanta | NFL Draft | PFF


I would take this deal if the Dolphins could keep either the #18 or Howard.

QuikSand 03-04-2021 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by larrymcg421 (Post 3329077)
I would take this deal if the Dolphins could keep either the #18 or Howard.


...probably around my line too, tbh

MIJB#19 03-04-2021 01:54 PM

Houston sends Watson
Seattle sends Wilson, 5th round pick

bhlloy 03-04-2021 04:19 PM

Assuming that's just a rumor or throwing something out there, there's less than zero chance of that. Wilson has a full NTC, a list of 4 teams he'll accept a trade to and Houston is probably the team with the least chance of winning over the next 3-4 years given the damage that BOB did there in terms of talent and futures.

miami_fan 03-04-2021 04:28 PM

Ben's back.

Ben Roethlisberger signs with Pittsburgh Steelers for 2021 NFL season

albionmoonlight 03-04-2021 04:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miami_fan (Post 3329093)


Happy to see that as a Saints fan. The more teams that are out of the "we need a QB" sweepstakes the better.

MIJB#19 03-05-2021 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bhlloy (Post 3329091)
Assuming that's just a rumor or throwing something out there, there's less than zero chance of that. Wilson has a full NTC, a list of 4 teams he'll accept a trade to and Houston is probably the team with the least chance of winning over the next 3-4 years given the damage that BOB did there in terms of talent and futures.

Yeah, just throwing an idea out there.
If they want to come out of a deal with a quality quarterback, I think the best Houston and Seattle can do is exchange their players. But yeah, you do have much more valid points. :D

JPhillips 03-05-2021 01:25 PM

If I could get Watson for Wilson and a 5th I'd have it done within the hour.

A caller, 49ers fan, on WFAN said he wouldn't trade George Kittel for Watson. I love fans.

albionmoonlight 03-05-2021 03:14 PM

I love this idea. Kudos to the Ravens for thinking creatively.

Wild NFL rule change could be coming to overtime games if owners vote through Ravens' proposal, per report - CBSSports.com

Kodos 03-05-2021 03:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight (Post 3329152)


Sounds pretty cool to me too.

bronconick 03-05-2021 03:47 PM

Article also says someone suggested going back to the old dumb sudden death version, which I think we can guess which one will be chosen now.

AlexB 03-05-2021 05:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kodos (Post 3329156)
Sounds pretty cool to me too.


TBH it ‘ll just mean every overtime drive starts on the 50.

sovereignstar v2 03-05-2021 06:02 PM

Why would the winner of the coin toss ever pick the 50 yard line? The loser would pick offense every single time.

BYU 14 03-05-2021 06:21 PM

Yeah, I would think the 30 would be most prudent. If you don't advance you can pin the other team inside their 30 too

AlexB 03-05-2021 06:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sovereignstar v2 (Post 3329176)
Why would the winner of the coin toss ever pick the 50 yard line? The loser would pick offense every single time.


I misread it, I thought you had the 50, 40, 30, etc, and then chose O/D, and not the 50, 60, 70..

albionmoonlight 03-05-2021 06:27 PM

Fun to think which coach would be the best and which the worst at this. I think Bill Walsh would have been really good. Cold and calculating and really smart.

Lots of candidates for the worst. I feel like Mike Ditka would have misunderstood it and let the other team start on his five yard line and then fired an assistant coach over it on Monday.

AlexB 03-05-2021 06:31 PM

Edit: misread it again

Carman Bulldog 03-05-2021 06:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sovereignstar v2 (Post 3329176)
Why would the winner of the coin toss ever pick the 50 yard line? The loser would pick offense every single time.


Right? It's interesting to consider how far deep to put a team. While on it's surface, own-25 may seem like a "safe" call, I think if I'm a coach I still take offence every time in that scenario.

The average drive is around 30 yards. Let's say the other team says own 25-yard-line. Even on a bad drive, we go 3-and-out, but hopefully still gain about 5-8 yards and then an average 40-yard net punt. That puts the other team between their 25 and 30, and they still need around 35 yards to get into field goal range. Even if we only manage say 25 yards, we can still then hopefully trap them deep on a punt.

So maybe own 15-yard-line becomes the point where you really need to start thinking about how does my offence match up against their defence, how does our defence matchup to their offence, etc. If we go 3-and-out from the 15, then we risk giving them the ball around midfield.

I do wonder if the rule gets more interesting if you abolish punting in overtime. Then you really need to have faith in your offence if you call something like the 25-yard line and the other team says "have the ball."

Carman Bulldog 03-05-2021 06:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BYU 14 (Post 3329182)
Yeah, I would think the 30 would be most prudent. If you don't advance you can pin the other team inside their 30 too


See my post above, but if you are Team A and say "own-30," I think I'm taking offence every single time if I'm Team B. Like you said, even if you don't advance much on offence, you still have a good shot at pinning them deep.

Carman Bulldog 03-05-2021 06:55 PM

Triple Dola:

Pro Football Talk explains it better than CBS does...

Quote:

It works like this: One team picks the spot of the ball to start overtime, and the other team chooses whether to play offense or defense.

If the one team picks, for example, the offense’s own 20 yard line, the opponent would then choose whether to play offense from their own 20 or to play defense, with the other team having the ball on its own 20. This would minimize greatly the impact of the coin toss; under this proposal, the coin toss would be used only to give the team that wins the toss the right to pick the spot of the ball (along with the end zone to be defended) or to choose offense or defense.

The article also says the break even point is believed to be around the 13-yard-line, so not far from what I speculated on with the 15.

bhlloy 03-05-2021 07:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AlexB (Post 3329183)
I misread it, I thought you had the 50, 40, 30, etc, and then chose O/D, and not the 50, 60, 70..


This would be the better rule for me. I think the Ravens proposal ends up with everyone playing it conservative and a ton of ties, FWIW. I'd be perfectly fine with the college rule to be honest.

QuikSand 03-05-2021 09:43 PM

This sounds like a classic game theory warmup puzzle about perfecting the way to cut a cake for two to share (first person cuts, second person chooses).

I think it is not a massive change to the way they do it now (I assume the detractors are mainly just missing the setup), but would just tilt the scales a bit closer to even. Good idea, but there wouldn't be wild variations in the way it worked out.

Carman Bulldog 03-06-2021 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand (Post 3329208)
This sounds like a classic game theory warmup puzzle about perfecting the way to cut a cake for two to share (first person cuts, second person chooses).

I think it is not a massive change to the way they do it now (I assume the detractors are mainly just missing the setup), but would just tilt the scales a bit closer to even. Good idea, but there wouldn't be wild variations in the way it worked out.


I think you're right. I believe the idea is to basically eliminate the impact/imbalance of the coin toss and also negate anyone's ability to complain about the fairness.

henry296 03-06-2021 06:39 PM

I'm not sure it will change much. Much like the team in college always picking defense when they win the toss, I think that collective wisdom will be to have the winning team go on offense. You get the extra possession and even starting on the 10 yard line, I think team's will have confidence.

Carman Bulldog 03-06-2021 08:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by henry296 (Post 3329288)
I'm not sure it will change much. Much like the team in college always picking defense when they win the toss, I think that collective wisdom will be to have the winning team go on offense. You get the extra possession and even starting on the 10 yard line, I think team's will have confidence.


I disagree. If Team A says "Own 1", I think there is almost zero chance that Team B doesn't say "take the ball". When you are that deep in your own end zone, expected point models are into the negative. Even a 1st-and-10 at your own 10 is still in the negative when it comes to expected points. That's why people are projecting around the 13-yard-line.

Having said that, even if every team says "own 13-yard-line" every time, statistically that creates a fairer approach when compared to the current or previous coin toss system.

I think you are right that teams won't stray too far from that point. But if you are the Chiefs for example, I think you start pushing that saying "own 7" or even deeper.

QuikSand 03-06-2021 08:47 PM

So, to wrap it all up...

-nearly every win-the-toss team offers "own 15" or something like that
-the other team makes the tough call on whether to kick/receive
-the resulting overall win odds are closer to 50/50 than what we have now
-the OT outcome seems less determined by the coin and more by the choice

How could you argue that this isn't a better setup? I get that it's "complicated" up until you see it happen one time, and after that it's just "the way we do it now."

I'm in.

molson 03-06-2021 09:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand (Post 3329302)
-the resulting overall win odds are closer to 50/50 than what we have now
-the OT outcome seems less determined by the coin and more by the choice



How do we know that?

Once coaches have figured out which is the right yard line to start at every time, I'd think the team with the next choice of who gets the ball, informed by the strengths of the teams and what has happened that game, including injuries, would have an advantage.

Isn't the current coin toss winner something like 52% likely to win? I can't find a stat that includes the last two seasons. But that's tough to improve on. College is around 55% in favor of the team going second

albionmoonlight 03-06-2021 09:57 PM

I love the extra psychological element.

You are playing against Tom Brady's team. You win the toss and pick your own four yard line. You force the opposing coach to keep Tom Brady off the field if he wants to make the "stat nerd" (i.e. correct) play.

They will have to add an extra head to all the talking head shows to deal with the fallout of that on Monday morning.

henry296 03-06-2021 09:57 PM

That's fair, I guess those 10 yards matter, since the winner of the coin toss starts around the 25 yard line today and wins a little more often than not.

Carman Bulldog 03-07-2021 03:55 PM

Heard an amazing stat today that was apparently going around when Wentz got traded but that I missed at the time...

Of the 22 quarterbacks selected in the first round between 2009-2016, zero are still with the team that originally drafted them.

If Trubisky and Watson move on, that will leave Mahomes as the only quarterback (out of 25) taken in the first round between 2009-2017 still with the team that drafted him.

JonInMiddleGA 03-08-2021 12:30 PM

IMO, a really nice piece of writing here.

'Luv Ya Blue,' Bum and Earl too - When Houston and the Oilers were the NFL's perfect match

cartman 03-08-2021 06:41 PM

wew, Dak got PAID

4 years/$160 million, with $126 million guaranteed. Part of that is a $66 million signing bonus.

cuervo72 03-08-2021 08:58 PM

Yeah, I miss the Oilers.

Quote:

The Texans may never capture the city's hearts the same way.

They've never felt more than "Generic NFL Team" to me. Granted, I'm not from anywhere near Texas, but from here they're just...bland.

sterlingice 03-08-2021 09:25 PM

I haven't had an NFL team since the Oilers left Houston. That's the single biggest reason I've never really glommed onto another NFL team. I've watched more Kansas football than NFL the last 10 years and I was slightly annoyed the COVID robbed us of the chance to be the first team to lose 100 games in a decade.

Another thing that killed some of my interest in the NFL was NBC buying up the rights to 6pm highlights, effectively killing off NFL Primetime in the mid 2000s :(

SI

albionmoonlight 03-11-2021 08:59 AM



No idea how legit this source is, but if the sportsbooks are moving on this, that's a pretty big tell. Those guys have their ear to the ground.

Bears made the playoffs with Trubisky and Foles. Bears with Russ are no joke.

Lathum 03-11-2021 09:22 AM

I am almost positive Vegas books can't offer that prop. Not to mention if the Bears acquire Wilson their superbowl odds would go down, not up. I am calling BS on this one.

Kodos 03-11-2021 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sterlingice (Post 3329484)

Another thing that killed some of my interest in the NFL was NBC buying up the rights to 6pm highlights, effectively killing off NFL Primetime in the mid 2000s :(

SI


NFL Primetime is back on ESPN+.

Kodos 03-11-2021 10:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cuervo72 (Post 3329481)
Yeah, I miss the Oilers.



They've never felt more than "Generic NFL Team" to me. Granted, I'm not from anywhere near Texas, but from here they're just...bland.


Yep. Would love to see them revert to the Oilers name.

molson 03-11-2021 11:18 AM

What is a "betting outlet in Vegas?" That sounds made-up.

bhlloy 03-11-2021 11:35 AM

I get that many teams are needing to shed salary, but the Chiefs cutting both starting tackles (along with their third string probably leaving for FA) after seeing what happened without them in the Super Bowl seems like an interesting decision. The top tackle on their roster today is a 2020 3rd round pick who opted out of last season.

Andy Reid dances to his own tune and I'm sure he's already planned to fix what went wrong in that game, but you can't get a couple of starting offensive linemen in FA for an $18m cap hit, let alone anything close to a above average tackle. Definitely something to watch.

thesloppy 03-11-2021 12:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bhlloy (Post 3329780)
I get that many teams are needing to shed salary



I don't quite understand how free agency is supposed to work this season. Practically every team seems to be cutting or avoiding signing/tagging their star players because of salary cap concerns. but who is supposed to sign these players? Are there going to be a ton of high-priced, high-value free agents who aren't signed by anybody, or is there going to be a whole slew of high value FAs signed for well below previous market value?

sterlingice 03-11-2021 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bhlloy (Post 3329780)
I get that many teams are needing to shed salary, but the Chiefs cutting both starting tackles (along with their third string probably leaving for FA) after seeing what happened without them in the Super Bowl seems like an interesting decision. The top tackle on their roster today is a 2020 3rd round pick who opted out of last season.

Andy Reid dances to his own tune and I'm sure he's already planned to fix what went wrong in that game, but you can't get a couple of starting offensive linemen in FA for an $18m cap hit, let alone anything close to a above average tackle. Definitely something to watch.


From what I'm hearing second-handed from Chiefs fans on Royals blogs, both were expected to be hurt all season anyway. Like one had an Achilles injury and the other was hurt, too. So they were going to have to find new tackles anyways.

SI

bronconick 03-11-2021 12:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thesloppy (Post 3329781)
I don't quite understand how free agency is supposed to work this season. Practically every team seems to be cutting or avoiding signing/tagging their star players because of salary cap concerns. but who is supposed to sign these players? Are there going to be a ton of high-priced, high-value free agents who aren't signed by anybody, or is there going to be a whole slew of high value FAs signed for well below previous market value?


A lot of one year below market contracts, I bet.

JPhillips 03-11-2021 02:45 PM

I don't expect the Bengals to take advantage of this year, but they could easily get to 65 mil under the cap and really solidify their team for the Burrow rookie contract years.

Free agency 2022 is going to be crazy when everybody has a ton of cap space.

albionmoonlight 03-14-2021 04:48 PM

Brees officially retires. No surprise. Today is fifteen years to the day of him signing with New Orleans, and he's always been into symbolic stuff like that.

This is probably the most telling Brees stat, for me:


miami_fan 03-14-2021 04:50 PM

In other Saints news,

Saints' Taysom Hill: Restructures contract - CBSSports.com

bhlloy 03-14-2021 06:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight (Post 3330000)
Brees officially retires. No surprise. Today is fifteen years to the day of him signing with New Orleans, and he's always been into symbolic stuff like that.

This is probably the most telling Brees stat, for me:



The Athletic had an awesome article a while back on just how bad the Saints were defensively for most of his time there compared to the other leading QBs who won Super Bowls. With a semi-competent defense he wins at least another one.

It just sucks that by the time they had an average or above average defense, his arm was starting to fall off a bit.

Atocep 03-14-2021 06:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miami_fan (Post 3330001)


This deal is the most blatant example of NFL contracts being stupid. The reality is nothing really changes with how much he'll actually earn but the headline will be 4 years and $140 mil for Taysom Hill.

QuikSand 03-15-2021 07:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atocep (Post 3330019)
This deal is the most blatant example of NFL contracts being stupid. The reality is nothing really changes with how much he'll actually earn but the headline will be 4 years and $140 mil for Taysom Hill.


Feels like a tipping point deal, like they shut down this sort of garbage after seeing what the Saints (duh) did to skirt the rules

QuikSand 03-15-2021 07:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bronconick (Post 3329783)
A lot of one year below market contracts, I bet.


Most likely we will see the cap-friendly teams and the dumb teams announce their standard splashes today and tomorrow, and the smart teams will be doing a lot of one-year deals to tread water.

That path makes sense for the Ravens, frex... a veteran team who feel like they are already major contenders and are traditionally willing to take a couple of the declining years from proven vets. Not so sure about a team like the Dolphins... they aren't sure they "have their young QB" but there are elements of that team that do seem like potential tent stakes.

But the Jags have to be the most intriguing team in this free agency period. Tons of cap, they have a new front office, and "have their QB" and are immediately in "build around him while he's cheap" mode.

Should be peculiar.

QuikSand 03-15-2021 07:51 AM

Oh, and I'll offer a preemptive "lol Jets" here, feeling safe that it will age well.

albionmoonlight 03-15-2021 08:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand (Post 3330056)
Feels like a tipping point deal, like they shut down this sort of garbage after seeing what the Saints (duh) did to skirt the rules


As long as the NFL has non-guaranteed contracts, there will be "voidable years" at the end of them.

Right now, a team/player can agree to this deal:

DECENT SIGNING BONUS

Year 1 & 2 salary: reasonable

Year 3 & 4: voidable years with huge fake salary

______________________________________________

If "voidable years" are banned, then a team/player can agree to this deal:

DECENT SIGNING BONUS

Year 1 & 2 salary: reasonable

HUGE ROSTER BONUS THAT VESTS IF PLAYER IS ON TEAM AT BEGINNING OF YEAR 3 FREE AGENCY

Year 3 & 4 salary: outrageously large

I hope that the reader can see that these two deals, for practical purposes, are exactly the same. They are both two year deals for the amount of the bonus and first two year salaries. They allow the player to get his money and hit FA in two years. And they allow the team to spread the cap hit of the bonus into the fake years.

I like the "voidable years" model because it is just a bit more honest about what is going on.

If the NFL bans "voidable years" without making any other changes, you will see the teams change the window dressing but nothing else.

Of course, the NFL could decide to really get into the weeds with this and start policing contracts and deciding whether years are the end of a contract are "realistic" or some other such subjective standard. But I don't see the NFLPA being OK with that.

albionmoonlight 03-15-2021 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight (Post 3328816)
One guy I am interested in seeing what happens to is Trey Hendrickson.

He's a former 3rd round pick DE from Florida Atlantic. The book on him has been that he has a ceiling to his athleticism, but he plays incredibly hard. (And, yes, every white player from a small school is described as unathletic and a hard worker. But that's really all you hear about him from the coaches and local media. The guy plays every practice rep like it's the 4th quarter of the Super Bowl. Even in a world where "great motor" is thrown around too much, apparently he really does have a notably amazing motor)

He's only 26 years old, and he's going into unrestricted free agency. And he just put up 13.5 sacks.

But if you really break down the numbers, you see that he got a lot of those sacks against single-team blocks b/c other guys on the D-line got extra attention.

And his high motor means that he's probably at or close to his ceiling.

I think that he's much more of a high-energy rotation guy/average starter than a double digit sack guy. If I had to predict, I would say that this season was a an outlier.

But, he's a 26-year-old DE with double digit sacks hitting unrestricted free agency. And those don't really ever hit the market.

So I am interested to see if some team overpays for him. All it would take is two teams to get into a bidding war to give him stupid money.

Or, do all 32 teams see him like I do?

Like I said, I'm interested to see where he ends up and for how much.



Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand (Post 3330058)
Oh, and I'll offer a preemptive "lol Jets" here, feeling safe that it will age well.



bhlloy 03-15-2021 01:11 PM

lol Jets

sabotai 03-15-2021 02:15 PM

lol Jets

BishopMVP 03-15-2021 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight (Post 3330080)

Running backs? We do need a receiving back if James White goes elsewhere (there's this guy in Florida who could use a receiving back...), but Damien Harris is better than anyone out there (Kenyan Drake, Fournette, Mike Davis?)

Patriots did sign both Matthew Judon and Jonnu Smith to solid 4 year $12-14m/y deals. Jalen Mills as well for about $6m/y, and some DT from the Dolphins (Godchaux).

Joe Thuney off to the Chiefs - good start to building an OL for them, but they still need tackles at some point.

QuikSand 03-15-2021 05:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight (Post 3328816)
...So I am interested to see if some team overpays for him. All it would take is two teams to get into a bidding war to give him stupid money.

Or, do all 32 teams see him like I do?

Like I said, I'm interested to see where he ends up and for how much.




Round up the usual suspects indeed.

QuikSand 03-15-2021 05:10 PM

damn i was both early and late to the lol Jets party

albionmoonlight 03-15-2021 05:40 PM

Lol indeed.

Also, tip for the Vikings: if ever you look up and find yourself in a bidding war with the Bengals, Browns, and Jets, you might want to just back away and have a front office meeting where you can discuss where things went wrong.

JPhillips 03-15-2021 09:34 PM

Bengals let Lawson go and sign Hendrickson for more money.

Same old Bengals.

Swaggs 03-15-2021 09:39 PM

Hate to see Bud Dupree leave, but I’m glad he got paid after that injury and I think Tennessee seems like a good fit. He seems like a good teammate and improved a lot from his first couple years, when he looked like a bust candidate.

bhlloy 03-15-2021 09:59 PM

Pats throwing a fair amount of money at 2 marginal receivers - I love Agholor from his SC days, but he's not worth what they are giving him.

Vince, Pt. II 03-15-2021 10:05 PM

Bourne was a guy the 49ers kept waiting to take that next step and he just never did. I'll miss him despite the disappointment that came with him.

molson 03-15-2021 11:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bhlloy (Post 3330132)
Pats throwing a fair amount of money at 2 marginal receivers - I love Agholor from his SC days, but he's not worth what they are giving him.


You probably have to overpay if your QB can't reach the WRs with his throws.

They have SO much cap space and are using it. I just think Cam is absolute dead end at QB. Maybe they'll draft somebody, but then they're kind of stuck between reloading and rebuilding.

But then, with 7 playoff teams, I guess you shoot for 9 wins if you can and see what happens.

miked 03-16-2021 07:36 AM

If you are an RB, why would you go to the Pats? They have a mediocre QB and OL, and BB is known for benching RBs on a whim. I think Michel was hurt last year a little, but rushed for nearly 1000 yards in each of his first two seasons and then can barely sniff the field in year 3.

molson 03-16-2021 11:04 AM

After signing Hunter Henry today, the Patriots have now signed free agent contracts totaling $273 million in the last 24 hours, the most of any team in a single offseason in NFL history.

And they have lots of cap space left and appear to be in on several more players.

I've tried this approach in FOF before - cheap QB, build up the rest of the team around him. Maybe Bill Belichick will finally try to run the Navy wishbone offense as we know he's always longed to do.

bhlloy 03-16-2021 11:10 AM

Yeah, it's for sure an interesting approach. Elite defense and a mediocre QB with enough weapons around him is something that has worked, but can it still work in this league with the rule changes and the emphasis on offense?

And like you say, the problem is that really Cam is barely a mediocre QB at this point. And spending so much on WR/TE doesn't matter if your QB can't throw the ball over 6 yards anyway. So you'd think they have to look for a better solution there... Fitzmagic would have been an obvious one if he hadn't signed with WFT.

molson 03-16-2021 11:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bhlloy (Post 3330174)

And like you say, the problem is that really Cam is barely a mediocre QB at this point. And spending so much on WR/TE doesn't matter if your QB can't throw the ball over 6 yards anyway. So you'd think they have to look for a better solution there... Fitzmagic would have been an obvious one if he hadn't signed with WFT.


It's probably too optimistic to wonder if the Patriots now may be appealing to one of the disgruntled star QBs.

But ya, Fitz would have been a great fit. I also wonder why we don't hear more about Gardner Minshew being available. Mariota would be interesting. All better options than Cam. I would be very surprised (but not shocked, because the Patriots are weird like this sometimes), if they went to camp with Newton/Stidham. I'd bet they find a QB in the draft and this is a position of big weakness overall in 2021, limiting their upside.

bhlloy 03-16-2021 11:32 AM

I guess the counterpoint to that is all the money they just spent on FA... it's hard to get an exact guess of where they are against the cap before some of these contract details become public, but back of napkin suggests they are up against it again. If they wanted one of the disgruntled star QB's, before spending all that money presumably would have been the time to do it.

Let's be honest, Bill has never been shy about winning his way. I can well believe one last attempt to show he can win not only without Brady but without a QB at all appeals to his psyche.

QuikSand 03-16-2021 01:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bhlloy (Post 3330177)
without a QB at all


yes yes this, this is the way Bill, to get your name ranked higher than his

molson 03-16-2021 01:53 PM

I really don't buy that Belichick, or any successful coach, intentionally sabotages his team just for the challenge and accompanying fame.

And this something I've only read thrown at Belichick, which is quite the compliment of him in some ways, I guess.

Coffee Warlord 03-16-2021 05:23 PM

And the Bears choose their QB of the 2021 season....

Andy Dalton.

Atocep 03-16-2021 05:37 PM

It's the most Bears transaction the Bears could have possibly made this offseason.


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