COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778)
NYT and WP are reporting this will be a Pandemic.
Doesn't feel like a Pandemic aka in the movies, but wanted to start this thread to get some thoughts. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/h...mic-china.html Quote:
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I think it's still a bit of a beat-up at this stage - early signs have me thinking that the steps China took this time have prevented what could have been much worse. Currently 1 death outside of mainland China (HK), and although the numbers coming out of China are murky and filtered through the state media lens, I think it's safe to say that the overall health and living conditions of some of those contracting the disease also played a part in the mortality rates within the region.
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Based on current info less than 2% die from this and all of those have been from an underlying health condition, not the disease itself.
Its a really nasty new "ick" best not to let it spread, but not panic worthy. |
Or is it China testing weapons of mass destruction? Hunan, which borders Wuhan, has killed thousands of chickens after a bird flu break out.
Conspiracy theory for the win. |
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Something I read somewhere proposed a theory that China knew this was going to get bad and that's why they did the Phase 1 with Trump. Not sure the timing works though. |
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MSM is putting some perspective on this e.g. comparing it to the flu.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/the-...ronavirus.html China stock markets were down 8% but rebounded 1%+ today. US stock markets have (so far) rebounded pretty well too. Wonder how much will this affect China's economy and impact global companies with some/most their supply chain in China. |
Another graphic to put things into perspective. The chart is as of Jan 31 and I believe the infected nos. are much greater now.
FWIW, I never realized the H1N1 "swine flu" was that widespread and cause that many deaths. How The New Coronavirus Compares to Past Zoonotic Outbreaks, in One Simple Chart So what I don't get is - unless I'm mistaken, the drastic measures of city(ies) quarantine, restriction on border crossing, and flight embargoes didn't happen this extensively on the other outbreaks ... so why on this one? |
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I believe the number of cases would be considerably higher if we had the true figures in China, but I don't believe the mortality rate would be much higher. I think it's good practice to implement strong/harsh controls (travel bans/quarantines/etc) any time something like this rears its head, but I feel like one of the few people I know who isn't actively panicked by the whole thing. |
Flight embargoes as you call them are not the result over worry about spreading these virus inasmuch as it's about bookings that have fallen off a cliff. Initially anyway. Even coming from Tokyo yesterday I had nearly 100 seats empty. Two weeks ago, that safe flight maybe only had 8 empty. It's so much worse going to China. It's going to cost a fortune in lost revenue.
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There is an article floating out there where Tencent had posted higher infections and deaths before lowering them match up with the official tally. Agree that it is probably higher and that mortality rate probably won't go up that much higher (unless there is a massive cover-up which I guess is possible). Another article on folks quarantined on cruise ships. Assuming they are actually stuck in their rooms vs going down the waterslides and enjoying a nice seafood buffet ... must suck. I am also surprised that China markets are going back up after their 8% decline on Mon. I can understand the US markets' stability/rise because it hasn't really hit us and/or we are more confident in being able to meet the challenge if it does come over, but China's industries must really be hit right now. I did read that Chinese government is spending or allocating $180B or stabilize the market (but that number sounds small to me). |
I was wondering how the folks quarantined on the cruise ships were doing. Here's and article, he posts his meals on twitter (doesn't look too bad for "prison" food).
It must suck for those in the interior without windows. Man tweets food reviews from ship quarantined for coronavirus |
Well my company a Fortune 50 multinational has suspended all travel to from Asia Pacific as of Friday and thee are quite a few large companies doing the same. This is certainly going to affect revenue eventually.
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Pretty much still a jumble mess of confusion and FUD. Read WHO team is on the ground in China but not getting cooperation supposedly, China firing some big wigs in the area, China stats not accurate and/needed to be redefined etc.
From the CDC. Yeah, I'm okay to restrict to/from, require quarantine etc. until we get a better handle on this (and no, it's not racist to do this). https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/13/healt...ntv/index.html Quote:
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Given the mortality rate sits somewhere between 0.5 - 4% outside of Hubei province in China, the best cure for the virus seems to be recovering from the virus.
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Should I be fueling up the Zombie Survival All Terrain Vehicle?
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I can't muster up any anger at Jim Bakker over this. We know who he is. If you're foolish enough at this point to send him a dime, that's on you.
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Pics or I'm calling BS. (But yes, get ready !!) |
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I'm still waiting for the financing to come through. Going to be cutting it close. |
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Wow. |
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I get this, but he's mostly looking to scam lonely old people, so fuck him. |
Who knew there were literal snake oil salesmen still running around. I get the con artists, but this goes back to the old west.
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I read that estimates are that China has twice the population of the US under lockdown now.
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At least this isn't as bad as Birdemic
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You should hear what his kid has to say about him. |
Watching "The Martian" right now and it's where they play "Starman" with numerous montages including the NASA folks working with their Chinese equivalents to launch the Chinese resupply ship ... great scenes with the perfect song. It did well in China with $52M in first week.
Sure would be great if we had that type of relationship with China. Seems like the coronavirus provides a "similar" opportunity where both countries can really grow closer but there doesn't seem to be as much trust, transparency etc. |
Some stats from China's CDC.
2.3% death rate, over 60+ is most vulnerable, infections peaked around Jan 23-26. Coronavirus: Largest study suggests elderly and sick are most at risk - BBC News Quote:
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The coronavirus feels like/is a slowburn but an inevitable eventuality. If it spreads like how it spread in China (and seemingly now in SK and Japan), definitely won't be good news for the US. We do have better healthcare and more people able to work remote, so that is good and there'll be an opportunity to see if SK and Japan can control the spread with their better healthcare.
Not worried-worried but I think I'll stock up on toilet paper, SPAM, canned beans etc. ... going to use it eventually anyway. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/21/us-h...-pandemic.html Quote:
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Jade Helm 15 NEVER FORGET! Thanks to all the brave men and women of the Texas National Guard who kept us safe all along. Who knows what Obama would've done?! |
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So you don't see the coronavirus becoming a bigger threat this year than let's say the annual flu? And the quarantines that are happening right now, an overreaction? |
You mean like the spot on reactions to that Ebola breakout?
There are lots of reasons why outbreaks are worse, start and spread faster elsewhere. My issue isn't with the way it's handled. It's the panic and insanity that comes with it. Cheeto isn't really wrong saying warmer weather will weaken it. People want to draw this line from a causing b, but they don't think about all the steps in between. That's all. |
Looks like the pandemic has spread to the stock market. Yikes!
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Steady ... steady ... ste ... aaargh It’ll be a bumpy ride. BTW my SPCE is up 2.16% !!! |
Ken Cuccinelli, the Acting Deputy Sec. of Homeland Security asked for help reaching Johns Hopkins coronavirus map because it's apparently behind a paywall.
We're all gonna get sick. |
Can anyone think of a worst case scenario then Trump being briefed on a pandemic and actually having to make life or death decisions.
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Is it killing like the flu and taking the very young and old only? Or will this kill anyone?
What does it matter what a leader will do with a virus running around? Its not like anyone can stop it. |
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From the link below, the death % is primarily the boomers and older. Coronavirus: Largest study suggests elderly and sick are most at risk - BBC News What I've read is we are trying to "contain" it to buy time to develop a vaccine or figure more effective treatments. Differing estimates as to how far along a vaccine is, unproven stories that some existing drugs can cure or help etc. China's infections and deaths seem to be decreasing but who really trust those metrics. China cancels the National People's Congress because of the flu etc. On a more positive note, futures are up 200 right now. |
That's not comforting. |
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Well, nevermind. I do wonder how much of this is Bernie's momentum but I'm sure the main driver is coronavirus fears. Unfortunately, this means Trump gets a free pass if there is a sustained downturn in the economy this year. (But SPCE up another 2%. What a crazy stock). |
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Yeah I remember the enlightening discussion about welcoming a stock market crash to elect a Democrat. What if the crash is caused by an Asian flu epidemic and so the more protectionist/imperialist/authoritarian candidate wins? So we get 4 more years of Trump and a stock market crash! Hooray! Hate to go all Godwin's Law but what could go wrong with that? Be careful what you wish for right? |
Talk about cancelling the Olympics. The quote came from a long time IOC member named, wait for it......Dick Pound.
https://apnews.com/58043910be7bdc681...source=Twitter |
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I'll let the others speak for themselves but I said if a recession was overdue (which it is), let it happen early enough to impact the elections where Trump can't crow about a strong economy. Unlike many here, I figure the economy is the key driver ... not climate change or healthcare. If it doesn't help then let's not have it as it the case now. If there is a crash this year, it won't help because Trump can always point coronavirus impacting the global economy. |
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I don't think we can really know how that would effect Trump. He might get a pass, he might not. But we are overdue for a correction. Bulls can't run forever. |
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He will 100% get a pass. The man can do no wrong when it comes to his supporters. They will find an excuse for him on the worst of situations let alone one where he actually may have a legit excuse. |
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Its true we don't know for sure and if the global economy goes downhill, I do think its valid to say coronavirus contributed "some". We already had a market correction (defined as 10% decline from the top). We are overdue for a recession (defined as 2 quarters of negative growth). |
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Trump's almost certain inadequate response to it will hurt him more then the stock market. We've coasted for three years while he golfed and tweeted because there were no real crises that required an effective President and Administration until now. |
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I didn’t think about that. You are right if there is a Katrina like response it could hurt him significantly. |
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The corona virus could definitely be a Black Swan event that finally causes a significant drop. Hopefully the world can contain the virus from doing its worst, but it is looking really dicey right now. |
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Yeah, we're fucked when it gets here. |
CDC Warns It Expects Coronavirus to Spread in U.S. - WSJ
This article is not encouraging. C.D.C. Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the U.S. Nor this one. |
The US has the strongest (arguably) and/or most scalable healthcare system so we are probably the best to meet this challenge.
I do wish there was more information out there as far as "we have tried X and it has/not worked in treating the symptoms". You would think all the different existing drugs would have been tried by now. There's probably a wealth of sutdies/literature already out there but nothing has been synthesized by MSM to help educate the public. I was reading an article about whether this was "airborne" or not. Yes, it doesn't fit the technical description of airborne but if I sneeze close by you and you can catch it, its "airborne" enough :) |
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Stark contrast from the administration.
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Might be time to head down to Costco and by some bulk beans, rice,canned soup and mc n cheese. Is there any decent places that can give a idea of the type of things to pick up for a potential situation where schools, businesses and stores shutdown for a month or two?
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This just popped up. Good news. This event will inevitably be adapted to a movie one day. Looking forward to it. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/us-h...n-6-weeks.html Quote:
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Loads. Just search on google and reddit. We have 30+ days supply of canned food already. After Katrina, it just made sense to buy "extra" stuff to put in the basement and rotate food that we would eat anyway - rice, pasta, Spam (!, love that stuff), Bush beans, canned corn, green beans, soups etc. What I don't have yet is a couple months of toilet paper, dog food, lysol & alcohol !! |
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Thanks. This is a bit concerning for me with five kids at home and little confidence in the government especially these idiots to help us if it turns bad. I am not in panic mode but think it is prudent to have a bit of a small stock of food and like you said canned goods, dog and cat food etc. I guess it is off to Costco the am. |
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I know Costco, Walmart, Target etc. keeps track of a person's purchases. It would be fascinating to see the analytics on what items are being bought now that a person would not normally buy or in that quantity. I wonder if they have see a significant difference in buying yet from their members. |
I have a friend in Florida that bought a case of MREs off Amazon (I think) when there were concerns of a hurricane last year. Seem kind of pricey but I guess in an emergency, would work.
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So I thought stocking up was silly but maybe it's not a bad idea. :lol:
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And it's not just mortality. The hospitalization rate is maybe the bigger worry as hospital beds fill up and then what? Even if the virus is in relatively few cities, it can still cause a lot of problems.
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The rate of infection is about the same, which may have been what this person was talking about. However, the rate of death is higher with CV.
The biggest issue seems to be the incubation period. The common flu is like 3 days, and this can stretch up to 14 days, and one case of 27 days (although it's possible that person was exposed to more than one person who had the virus). |
Also that the incubation period is largely asymptomatic.
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FWIW ... How does the new coronavirus compare with the flu? | Live Science Quote:
Re: Death rate, per the link below, it's primarily the older folks that have to worry. It was a little < 15% for 80+ and pretty high for 70+ https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51540981 |
Why dont we just shut down the world for 2 weeks?
No one goes to work. No one leaves their house. Problem solved. Givepeople a 48 hour window to stock up and GO |
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We can't get people to use their blinkers.... |
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Because of libertarians, that's why. |
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I wouldn't mind a 2 week vacation. |
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Regarding the first number: There's lot of numbers none of them hard yet. How contagious is the Wuhan Coronavirus? (Ro) The attack rate or transmissibility (how rapidly the disease spreads) of a virus is indicated by its reproductive number (Ro, pronounced R-nought or r-zero), which represents the average number of people to which a single infected person will transmit the virus. WHO's estimated (on Jan. 23) Ro to be between 1.4 and 2.5. [13] Other studies have estimated a Ro between 3.6 and 4.0, and between 2.24 to 3.58. [23]. Preliminary studies had estimated Ro to be between 1.5 and 3.5. [5][6][7] An outbreak with a reproductive number of below 1 will gradually disappear. For comparison, the Ro for the common flu is 1.3 and for SARS it was 2.0. |
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Great idea but unfortunately I'd still have to work remote. I do wonder if there is enough food at grocery stores for each family to buy 2 weeks worth of food? Which leads to another question - how are the folks quarantined in cities like Wuhan getting food? |
So that 6 week vaccine human trial sounds like it is wishful thinking. Head of National Health said as much. Also, it will be interesting if they develop a virus and 30%of the country does not want to take it. I would be in favor of forced vaccinations and if need be by the national guard .
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Not a chance I would take a hastily developed vaccine for a disease I have 98% chance of surviving. |
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Yes the vaccine would need to be proper tested and be considered as safe as the common flu vaccine . Do you get the flu vaccine or are you against vaccinations in general? |
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I am very much pro vaccination. Usually I do get the flu vaccine but I didn't this year. I will admit I am becoming more and more skeptical of some vaccines. Not that they cause autism or anything, more regarding the necessity. I have heard a lot about the HPV one. Now I am not saying I am for or against it, and I have not been swayed one way or the other by social media, I just want to read more on it before my kids get it. The health care industry has gotten out of control with profits and you have to wonder how much of it is marketing as opposed to really needing it. |
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You realize there is great chance your kids get cancer is they dont get the HPV virus? Even if the chance is remote, why not negate it? As much as I am a conspiracy theory guy and I dont trust the government, Im sold on vaccinations. |
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Fair points. |
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How do you know that? Have you done the research? Seen independent research? Are there even independent studies that exist or is it what the drug companies have told you because they profit from it? Again. I am not saying that is what I believe, I am saying I need to do more research. |
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Damn you. Im as big an anti Pharma guy as there is and yet I buy into the vaccination stuff. What do I believe, What do I think is fact or fiction? Who do I believe? I hate big pharma, yet Im buying into their propaganda. |
Yeah I'm absolutely no expert here but using the HPV vaccine as the example here seriously surprises me. I was under the impression that the cancer risks in women who contract HPV are well understood and accepted and that this was seen as a godsend for women's health by virtually everyone who isn't strict anti-vaxx.
Again, not anywhere close to an expert and I can't bring you sources for any of this, just my general understanding with the impression that this understanding comes from many sources who don't stand to profit or have ulterior motives. |
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TBH I would not want to be the first tranche to take the vaccination even after successful human trials. I'll wait after first tranche + 1 month just in case anything comes up. Now if everybody was dying left-and-right, yeah I'll go first. |
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Agree. |
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Like I said I haven't even thought about researching it yet. Maybe the bias has sunk in through osmosis on social media or something. |
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Noticed N99 masks are sold out at Amazon.
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I still don't see it. I believe modern countries, with strong medicine and high standards of cleanliness will not experience this on anything like that level. China, India, Africa, Russia all are at a substantially higher risk. Maybe it will and maybe that will be enough to crash these global economy, but warmer weather is coming too and like the risk will drop with that alone. HPV vaccines for men massively reduce cancer risks for women. This has been shown. I would give them all day and twice on Sunday. |
I was reading about how one of the reasons coronavirus spreads so quickly and easily is that it's not particularly deadly or even debilitating. Young people get it, assume they have the cold or the flu - or sometimes feel no symptoms at all - and continue their plans and travel around. They tested everyone on that cruise ship and lots of people had it - even though they all felt fine. If they were just out in the world they wouldn't have even been tested.
That makes containment a lot more difficult. There's a Harvard professor who thinks that 40-70% of people in the world will get the virus at some point, but that most will get only mildly sick, or not notice at all. Even though they probably under-report things, the fact that we don't have reports of bodies in the streets in China despite how easily this spreads seems to support all that. If China can avoid massive deaths, and there's some indications things are tapering off there, we hopefully will see even smaller death tolls in Europe and North America. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...accine/607000/ |
It sounds like this is a bit like West Nile Virus. Some won’t notice they have it, the elderly and very young die.
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Not sure about the very young, see BBC link above. If it can be believed (have to take it with a grain of salt, its a Chinese study), it showed the very young were not impacted that much either. Primarily the older folks ... just under 15% for 80+, about 8% for 70-79, 3.5% for 60-69. (Probably some ageist bio-terror plot to redistribute Boomer wealth IMO) |
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I was just listening to someone from the CDC on NPR and they said mask are only helpful for sick people not to spread the disease. |
HHS Sec says that he can't promise people will be able to afford a future coronavirus vaccine because the private sector needs to make money so they'll continue to invest.
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WTF grifters. |
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Gross. |
My worst fears have come to pass. We have national crisis that involves potential life and death decisions and we have to count Trump to protect us.
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Trump- “I am putting Mike Pence in charge as the Czar"........No!!!!
Though I guess better than Trump. |
Pence making it clear that Dear Leader is using his powers as a God-King to protect all Americans.
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Don't worry. Pence us in charge. You know, the guy who doesn't believe in science.
Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk |
Pray the corona away. Perfect.
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Haha I forgot about that. We are all fucked!
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I’m looking forward to scientists revealing that the gays are the reason Coronavirus is sweeping across America
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I figured as much. Just thought it was interesting to see people stocking up. Did find some N95 masks around the house I used during messy home improvement projects. |
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