The Trump Presidency – 2016
 

What a crazy election, one for the books. Here are my hopes & predictions for his presidency

Hopes:

(1) Don’t start a nuclear war
(2) Secure the borders and reform immigration (somehow)
(3) Greatly reduce ISIL, resolve the Syrian war
(4) Strengthen our relationships with friends
(5) Reduce our dependence on global oil, encourage alternate fuels
(6) Balance the budget and reduce the deficit
(7) Grow the economy & stock market

Predictions:

TBD

I’ve been on the losing side before and TBH this one hurts a lot. But this is our democratic process in action.

Welcome to a brave new world. It will be an interesting 4 years.

I do really hope Trump "makes America great again".

That #3 "resolving" is probably as tough as the rest combined.

This thread is useless without a poll I can wait 4 years to vote on.

I'll setup a poll but lets give it a little while for emotions to settle

Edward, I'm with you in the other thread as having been terribly disappointed from a results standpoint. I am also somewhat with you in that I think this is going to be a fascinating presidency to live through. Although I am a bit more pessimistic in how it plays out than you perhaps. This is a terrible time from a world history standpoint to become isolationist from a trade standpoint, or conversely to attempt to go even more aggressively after ISIS.


And I'll re-ask the questions I asked in the General Election thread:

How does Trump actually govern? So many Republicans distanced themselves from him. Do they kiss the ring and fall in line with his policy? Who is in a Trump cabinet? Who will be making all the decisions, when Trump himself seems so clearly disinterested in much else than the attention this affords him.

And other questions:

How far does the GOP Congress actually let him go with some of these policies? Is he really getting a wall, or can he back out of it by saying "well, we couldn't get Mexico to pay for it after all"? Is he really getting a 30% tax cut? Is he really getting criminalization of abortion and jailing young potential mothers who abort? Is Obamacare coming down? How bad will race relations get... will we really get "stop-and-frisk"? Increased racial profiling? Even so far as a ban on Muslims entering the country?


All I can say now is to the Trump supporters: you're getting what you want. Let's see if it lives up to your expectations. My bet is that it won't. America may be going to some dark places in the years ahead. But then again, maybe not.

A Trump presidency would have been a lot more fun without control of both houses. Just like the Democrats have some pretty grand ideas sometimes (i.e. $$$$) I think we will see the Republicans do some expensive things as well. 2018 can't come soon enough for at least a balanced government.

As far as Trump goes I don't know he will be as bad as everyone thinks. Ronald Reagan was an actor, Obama has pretty much zero experience... Not comparing him to either but I don't know if the executive experience thing really matters as much as people seem to think. I share the fear of his massive ego and nuclear war but I'm pretty sure he cares more about his own life and his family's than he does about winning a nuclear showdown. God I hope I'm right on that one!

Oh I don't think there's any real question that it will come up far short of desires at least, and expectations probably. Hell, my expectations are among the lowest of anyone who voted for him most likely & I'm not even sure those will be met.

He's got a potential two-year hedge for that though: whatever reluctant GOP congressmen are left will be a large primary target two years from now. I suspect they'll be the "coordinators" who get fired and extend the "head coach" lease on life.

Isn't that it though? I mean, how will the system change (will it?) so that all these politicians get voted out? That's the change that everyone says won last night. Incumbents still rule. He ran on all of them being bad. Is it now that only the (D)'s are bad, and the rest can stay?

I expect it'll be nothing short of all-out war on them honestly (I certainly hope so at least) And here's the tricky part: they can either fight and be out on their ear as the next public enemy #1 OR they can bend to the will of the people.

Many of them have shown a willingness to capitulate in the past, I suspect a lot will now as well.

What happens if they turn the tables and convince Trump that he needs them as much as they need him? Given the way that Bush II fell victim to his fathers advisors, the way that Obama fell victim to the old guard Dems in the House and Senate who totally fucked his first term, you have to have some fear of that happening again.

I really hope that Trump really gets rid of all of those pesky government regulators like the FDA, SEC, EPA, FTC, FAA, and CPSC.

No government regulation will totally mean a better government for all.

Who are we to tell people that they can't fly planes wherever they want, or to dump toxic waste wherever they please? Tyrants!

Then he's a one-term president unless the Ds come up with a stupifyingly horrific candidate.

His leash is almost certainly shorter than he thinks it is (although I suspect, given how well he understood the electorate, he may understand more closely than we'd give him credit for on first blush). The same people who cast their hopes with him & showed up yesterday will sit the next one out if he turns into "just the same ol' do-nothing".

Have I got a candidate for you! Maybe you've heard of her...

Supreme Court nomination list just totally changed

1 Probably not, but I worry about NATO and our Pacific alliances. I think he's willing to completely change our treaty partners.

2 The wall won't happen, at least not in four years. He'll claim fencing and increased patrols/surveillance was what he meant all along.

3 The second part might happen, but at the expense of cozying up to Russia.

4 See #1. He's been boasting about pissing off allies for two years.

5 LOL He just recently called for a ban on government funding of alternative energies.

6 Double LOL His tax plan alone adds nearly 1 trillion a year to the deficit and he's also calling for lots of increased spending.

7 ? But after almost eight years of expansion I would expect a recession soon.

Please meet the the senator from Florida, Marco Rubio.

Well any discussion of the R's tempering Trump was just thrown out the window with Ryan's speech basically saying the entire Republican party is now all in. I guess that's the position he should be in, all is forgiven, no harm, no foul, look what I found!

This thread is going to be awesome.

Regarding your post, I don't think it means much. The GOP may rally behind Trump and do extremely well. Or he may do something ridiculously stupid and they put a candidate up against him in four years.

It's like a political version of the Sopranos. Tony just got the top spot. We'll see if he'll handle it well or go down in a ball of flames trying to eliminate his enemies.

Nobody wanted Hillary on their softball team as a child. She was a first basemen, but she kept dropping the ball.

My hope is that Trump really doesn't have any strong policy convictions (other than possibly things that have impacted his businesses) and that he'll surround himself with competent conservatives who may have been overlooked by the establishment, but who might have something to offer.

I think his Supreme Court appointments might be surprisingly solid and moderate. I don't think he's on some mission against abortion and gay marriage, I think he might not care much either way. He may be more interested in looking smart here and appointing on merit.

More of a hope than a prediction, but I hope that he has less political loyalty than any president we've had in a long time, and that could lead to some unexpected positive things in terms how the government operates and how the branches interact.

We get a re-examination/reset, short of a revolution, of how we do things as a country in business and politics. Trump is such a wild card and we don't know what he'll do and what, if anything, he really believes in, so these mechanisms can't just run on auto-pilot.

I hope he's concerned about his legacy and how he's remembered and he doesn't do anything drastic that carries a high risk of catastrophe.

Clinton just said something about being open minded and giving him the chance to lead, and I hope we can try to do that.

I think that one of the things that Trump won on was his "outsider" status. If he just doubles down on working with all of the same old GOP faces, I would think he would lose that luster rather quickly.

This sums up my thoughts/hopes as well and to be honest I'm not sure how it isn't a similar list for the vast majority who voted for him either.

He STILL has to go IMO.

Few Trump voters have any confidence in the man, few NeverTrumpers would have any after he rolls over. I can't see how he's got any weight with anyone whatsoever under the circumstances.

I honestly believe you're setting yourself up for a massive disappointment, but I think you already know that.

I hope he writes a sequel to:

How can he do any of this and be re-elected? Jon represents the average Trump voter and look at what he said above. He's already surrounded himself with Giuliani, Christie, Cruz, and other establishment people. He's all in on his gamble.

Maybe he gets a few high-profile wins on immigration, dismantling Obamacare, cutting taxes, cutting some spending, and that's enough to make him feel either that he can win in 2020, or that he can walk away with his head held high.

But, it's a good question, and all I can hope for is my best-case scenario, I can't argue that it's likely.

To be fair, I'm going to draw at least one key distinction between me and what I figure is about 60% of them: I don't have any more confidence that he accomplishes anything particularly useful than I had that he'd get the knockout with his puncher's chance.

They do.

The majority really do seem to believe -- whether truly or simply whistling past the graveyard -- that this is the awakening of America, that wrongs will be made right again, and so forth.

If that turns out to not be the case, they're going to take it very hard & very poorly and "Fuck Trump" will become a popular bumper sticker in some districts that he won last night.

The disaster that was Gov. Sonny Perdue in Georgia pretty much ruined me for ever actually believing in an elected official doing any good again. Others are less cynical.

He's not going to introduce any legislation. He'll have Pence work with congress and then he'll take credit for everything he signs. He largely won't care what it is.

edit: The result will be a very far-right economic agenda, but that's because that's what will come to his desk. There's no evidence he really cares about policy one way or the other.

Well, since the man has never governed, I imagine there isnt much evidence about how he feels about policy.

There's plenty of evidence that he feels all sides of every policy.

You are probably right but I'm personally hoping for a real wall per my comments in the other thread.

I remember when Obama won, there was alot of heartache, angst (and venom) from the more radical right. I certainly do not feel that with Trump but I am finding it hard to watch the news right now. I guess I now know a little of how they felt.

I have some FB friends who can't let it go. I don't get into political stuff on FB but I do wish I could tell them to get with the program and give Trump the benefit of doubt (for now).

I don't know about this. I don't think they will blame Trump, they'll have plenty of other scapegoats. Trump is as teflon (among his supporters) as I've seen.

Here's a version of Trump's cabinet

US election 2016 results: Meet President Trump's possible cabinet - BBC News

1) Newt - State
2) Rudy - Attorney General
3) Priebus - Chief of Staff
4) Christie - Commerce
5) Sessions - Defense
6) Flynn - National Security Advisor
7) Mnuchin - Treasury

Who will be in Trump's Cabinet? A few possibilities

1) Rudy - Attorney General
2) Newt/Corker - State
3) Carson - Surgeon General
4) Flynn - NSA or Defense
5) Sessions - Defense
6) Priebus - Chief of Staff
7) Mnuchin - Treasury
8) Christie - Justice

Meet Trump's Cabinet-in-waiting - POLITICO

1) Christie/Bolton - State
2) Mnuchin - Treasury
3) Sessions/Hadley/Talent - Defense
4) Rudy - Attorney General
5) Lucas/Palin - Interior

In the theme of shaking things up and being "tougher" internationally, I do like Newt.

Christie should be rewarded for his loyalty but can see Dems making Bridgegate his albatross. Would Trump want that? Maybe not State but a lessor cabinet role.

Rudy is another that should be rewarded for his loyalty. Not sure why but he scares me some as Attorney General. To his credit, I think he would be tough on crime and domestic terrorism.

There's also talk of the sheriff from Milwaukee (name escapes me atm) getting the DHS job, although thinking about it a bit more I'd prefer to see him at DoJ I think.

Seeing Newt as SoS makes me wish Zell Miller was younger.
Love the idea of Rudy as AG, at least on paper.
Also not wild about moving Sessions out of the Senate.
Would prefer Christie be nowhere near anything frankly.
The Preibus as Ch of Staff surprises me more than any name on the lists.

Looks like a Who's Who of the GOP from like 10-15 years ago. I thought Trump was an "outsider". I guess I would rather see these guys than Eric Trump: State, Ivanka: Chief of Staff, George Ross: Press Secretary...

I'm legitimately curious as to how this plays out with his supporters (if it plays out).

Don't quite know Trump's domestic policy yet, I think much of what he said was for the consumption of his base and things may change some.

However, I have been critical of Obama's foreign policy. Long term I do think China is public enemy #1 and we need to counteract it ... so looking forward to us being more tough with them (which I believe Newt can do). TPP was to bring the asian countries closer to us and if not TPP, something else needs to be done.

From the various lists, I imagine most will go over okay.
Newt has had some questionable moments in recent years but I think I may be more aware of those (the Georgia connection) than the average voter

Christie will draw some furrowed brows but probably gets the "well, it's his cabinet so if he trusts him ... " exception until he screws something up

Many are low enough profile (Lucas, Mnuchin) that they're just another name, pending their performance.

The rest are mostly reasonably well regarded afaik.

It will naturally be called "Don't call it a comeback! I was here all along"

FWIW, watching and reading the news again isn't that painful anymore. I guess I'm almost over it :)

Just had a thought though ... JBL for Treasury maybe? :)

On a lighter note, I've just had a very enjoyable timewasting experience on FB.

WWE Hall of Famer Trump's cabinet ... as filled by wrestling personalities.

Give it a try on your own time, it can be quite amusing :)

I'll just chime in here that I disagree with you.

I think Jon (and I believe he will readily admit this) is on the far right hand side of what the party is and what most of the republican voters are.

I think the average Trump voter in this election hated both candidates, but didn't want the same old politics. People are pissed and they want change any way they can get it at this point. I don't agree that this is the best way to go, but it's very clear what happened.

The average Trump voter did what the average Hillary voter did. They had to decide of they wanted to drink kerosene and light themselves on fire or if they wanted to drink raw sewage and put a gun to their head. The polling may be skewed, but I don't think it's wrong on this one: 80% of the people who voted were dissatisfied with both candidates. That left 1 in 5 who actually smiled and felt pride in the vote. The rest of us felt like we had to take a shower.

But on the other hand they (esp Congressional Republicans) are going all in on Trump. And his big supporters didn't hate Trump - they carried him through the primaries. They are the ones who are going to be instrumental in making policy, not the nose holders. But the nose holders have shown they'll go along with it.

I'll agree with that well enough ... but I also draw a different conclusion from it.

I'm less enthusiastic about Trump than probably 1/3rd or more of those who voted for him. I think it's fun & all, just to feel like "so you mean there's a chance" again, but have limited hopes for the outcome.

A lot of those I know who voted for him truly bought into the whole "Make America Great Again" thing (I don't believe that's a realistic goal),

I've probably heard directly from around 250 or so Trump voters over the past weeks through election day. They may have had to convince themselves along the journey but by Tuesday over half were sold. (Not a lot over half probably, but still).

I need a facepalm.gif for SIGNIFICANTLY whitening these lyrics.

"Hello, old chap! Don't call it a comeback, I was here all along!"

Meanwhile, Obama and Trump are having the first transition meeting right now. It was thought to be 15-20 minutes. They've been in there for roughly 80 minutes as of this posting.

Meeting over. Trump said Obama is a "very fine man."

Obama called it an "excellent" conversation that was wide-ranging and he is "very encouraged." "Important for all of regardless of party for all of us to come together."
Trump called Obama a "very fine man" whose counsel he will seek. "I very much look forward to dealing with the President."

Supreme Court list gone too

Trump acting very presidential since the acceptance speech. This is nothing like the campaign version of him. I wonder if that's disappointing to any of his supporters. I'm choosing to think it's a good sign.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...tml?tid=sm_tw#

Evil Empire to campaign operatives.

Trump has always been an actor and a charleton throughout his life. He will pick and choose parts of his campaign that help him now that he has won. Things that hurt his personal glory/plan will be lost or "forgotten". His history shows this will be the case and if I were a right-winger, I would be very concerned that he won't keep half (or even a quarter) of his promises.

If Trump gets the idea in his head that protecting a woman's right to choose could profit him somehow down the road there will be abortion clinics next to every Starbucks.

Trump has so far named a climate change denier as his EPA transition chief. And the names being floated for Homeland Security are David Clarke and Joe Arpaio. So far this tells me he's going to be exactly what he promised to be during his campaign.

It has certainly given me hope for that to be the case (tho I'd prefer Arpaio at Immigration and Clarke at DoJ) but right now they're both just names floating around.

I won't count our blessings until they're in office & running things.

Arpaio won't get the job - he lost his election (meaning - "He's a loser")

Isn't it somewhat common for dispatched politicians to get cabinet roles tho?
Trump is reportedly looking at at least 1-2 others that have lost for various jobs so it wouldn't seem to be an impediment.

Isn't Arpaio under federal investigation? I don't think even Trump would be shifty enough to bury that so Arpaio could get a job.

Day 1 in Trump America:

Day 1 In Trump's America

Day 1000 in Trump America

It would not surprise me if some of it was made up/lying, etc. (I know of one picture not shown here of two white college students in blackface-has been doctored). The white man being beat up was over a traffic incident I have found out since I posted this. But even if its all made up, it has some value in reading through it I think

Yep.

Illustrates how gullible large portions of the public are, and the extremes a few malcontents will go to exploit that.

Guy I used to work with is becoming fairly important in democratic politics in Michigan. Was involved in a demonstration and posted a live video(in Grand Rapids). I get people being upset, I'm not thrilled myself, and I was fine with it till they started chanting 'not my President' over and over again. Three weeks into January, he's going to be. Really. That's how it works. Each voter/bloc doesn't get pick their own president.

Then another former co-worker, who has gone on about 'Killary' etc. all campaign long, puts up a message of unity, let's all rally around Trump no matter what we believe, etc. Just astounded me. Had no substantive response to it being pointed out that he sure wasn't willing to do that with the shoe on the other foot.

I hope we get past this stuff eventually, but I don't think we are off to a good start.

His top 3 priorities.

Interesting that he left ISIL off but maybe these were just his domestic priorities.

In Capitol Hill Meetings, Donald Trump Reveals His Top Priorities - NBC News

It's going to be great to watch the folks here that complained about the stimulus praise a budget that cuts taxes and spends heavily on infrastructure.

I'm just waiting for Trump to piss off the republicans and want single-payer healthcare after repealing Obamacare.

National Trump Healthcare Service. That would be hilarious.

Paul Ryan says that the GOP is going to phase out Medicare and replace it with private insurance.

The will not go over well.

Trump Health
Trump Visas
Trump Passports
What else can we license?

That argument works sometimes but this site is pretty much blah on Trump and even anti-Trump from most of it's conservative members right? Who exactly has said anything other than "Well I hope this works out" on here? I know your agenda and that you are looking for a boogeyman with your dire warnings every 4-5 posts but I think you are arguing with the wrong crowd.

Trump Team: "Ok, we've won! He can't do any more damage with Twitter. Let's him have it back."

Trump:

Just had a very open and successful presidential election. Now professional protesters, incited by the media, are protesting. Very unfair!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 11, 2016

Trump Team: "Oops."

Love the fact that the small groups of protesters last night have passion for our great country. We will all come together and be proud!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 11, 2016

I said that to my kids yesterday as a joke and then wondered if Democrats could manage to somehow not step on their dicks and just let it happen without derailing it from the sheer irony.

Trump team warns Obama not to make major moves on foreign policy - POLITICO

Trump will quit TPP in first days - POLITICO

Looks like Paul Ryan is ready to finally live out his masturbatory fantasies of a Randian utopia. But I guess it's silly for me to be worried.

Already some lying coming out.

Louisiana student ‘fabricated’ story of hijab attack, police say - The Washington Post

Everything's a con:

See: Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

To be fair Obama tried to work with Congress but they kept stymieing him. Trump has a republican Congress to work with so there are no excuses.

About that "repeal and replace" promise...

http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-t...law-1478895339

Hidden behind a paywall.

He and Congress are looking for a way to keep the popular parts and repeal the unpopular parts, but you can't have one without the other. No preexisting conditions without a mandate really will kill insurance companies. I know I'd immediately cancel my insurance until I needed more than generic prescriptions.

There is no in between with Health care. you either do full privatization or full socialized.

A mix will not work in any form.

I want a cap on pharmacy costs. Everyone else in the world does this and we pay for it.

I want free healthcare. I will pay some more in taxes to eliminate health insurance.

Yep.

If the goal is full coverage, the only ways to get there are state-run health care, or a mandate to make sure that insurance companies aren't getting saddled with the high-risk population while the healthy population walks away.

If the goal is 'lower costs,' you can get there without mandates, but the trade-off is you completely screw over people with pre-existing conditions.

The one area that I actually do with Trump is for Medicare to negotiate for drugs.

While I disagree on the universal healthcare system (I noticed Colorado rejected a state-run universal system by a big margin), I do agree with you on the pharmacy costs. The US shouldn't subsidized both the bulk of the world's Pharma/Biotech R&D (I'll have to check again, but I believe the US accounts for 75% of the world's R&D spending) and their drug prices. If other countries need to pay more to cover the difference in a drop here in the US, so be it.

I think there are little things that can be do to attack and reduce the costs in the system itself.

There are some real risks involved in government negotiating drug prices, but I think something along the lines of, we pay your best price among industrialized nations, or something along those lines would work reasonably well.

As I've said before, there are only two ways to reduce costs, limit access or lower payments to providers.

Yeah, I don't think Paul Ryan will be able to push a large agenda. Breitbart: No 'amnesty' for Paul Ryan | TheHill

Donald Trump Doesn't Like This Any More Than You Do

‘Prediction professor’ who called Trump’s big win also made another forecast: Trump will be impeached - The Washington Post

Log In - New York Times

I could absolutely see him resigning within a year.

You'd rather have Pence be the president? You better hope Donald stays for the whole 4 years. Pence being VP is probably the GOP's shield to protect Trump.

Yeah, any dem who is hoping Trump steps down isn't paying attention. Pence is fucking terrifying. Should be hoping the guy who isn't actually as right wing as it gets doesn't step down

It isn't silly of you to be worried. Not in the least. You SHOULD be worried. We all should.

On the other side, we can't even see the bill you and Ryan are talking about because it hasn't been created yet. Last I checked, the Republicans don't hold a super majority in any slot. The dems can block the same way the reps did against Obama.

We have multiple levels of government for a reason. Do we even know that the more moderate members of the Republican party are going to vote for the things being talked about now?

I don't like Trump, not even a little bit. I didn't vote for him. He won. We live in a democracy and the candidate you want and the policies you want don't always get put into play. I want a national ban on the death penalty. The people spoke pretty loudly this week that they didn't agree. I'll have to deal with that and a supreme court that will never remove it in my lifetime. Democracy giveth and it taketh away.

At the risk of being excessively snarky, there is a 3rd way - improving efficiency, greatly reducing the administrative bloat, and focusing on limiting costs instead of doing every possible test "just to be safe." Kasich pointed to some success he had in Ohio doing just that, and the hilarious levels of redundant people and tests I've dealt with in the last month attests to how much overlapping waste there is there.

(I was hit in the eye with a lacrosse ball, neither MassHealth or Fallon had a list of in network eye specialists, so for each follow up appointment I had to phone 4 different offices, 3 of whom I've never met, to get approval to see an "out of network" specialist. After I spent 3 hours at the initial ER and they recommended I go to Mass Eye & Ear to be cautious I had to practically threaten to walk out before they agreed to let my friend drive me and not waste resources on an ambulance. And each separate place insisted on doing their own battery of ultrasounds, X-rays etc initially even though I had a folder with all of that stuff taken within the last 24 hours, and they insisted on continuing to do tests "to be safe" even after it was obvious that my bones would heal and vision would come back 95% on its own and surgery was neither necessary nor helpful.)

So people are still protesting in the street over Trump's victory.

I wonder how many of them actually voted and what are they trying to accomplish?

I think most of the stuff you see online is made up. I don't know why these people want to continue on with crying wolf and the identity politics after is spectacularly backfired in their face.

Opening up drug sales between borders would lower the cost of drugs immediately. It's insane that we can't buy the same exact drug from Canada that we buy from the United States.

I also agree with you on the healthcare thing. This in-between crap isn't working.

I also don't think you can actually have a fully private health care system. There is no incentive to sell health insurance to someone with a chronic condition. Who is going to sell insurance to the kid who lost the genetic lottery and got cancer? Who is going to sell insurance to an 80 year old man? And if people can't afford it, do doctors just let people die in the waiting room?

As lots have said from the beginning, healthcare should a right, not a profit for companies that do nothing but hedge risk and pay claims. A lot of things people are clamoring for is what Obama and the senate first tried to pass...single payer system.

see, I would call that reducing payments to providers, as all those tests are about profit margins.