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GroupThink 3 - Sizing up the Kitty Hawk Flyers
Since there hasn't been much discussion about what we ought to do within our career, I'll try to jumpstart things with an executive decision - we will assume control over the Kitty Hawk Flyers, beginning with the 2020 season.
If you haven't yet gotten the game files, here is a link to the thread containing them: GT3 Game Files Let's use this thread to post our first cut of ideas... some people have been assigned position groups to analyze in detail, but anyone is welcome to chip in as they like. Our first decision will be: whom on the current team do we want to keep? Doing so will require that we offer them a new contract, so think in terms of demands, rather than current contract cost. Plus, do consider chemistry issues - as that will be a big part of this effort. |
Here's a little look at the Kitty Hawk Flyers' recent history:
KH has a record of .465 over the 19 seasons of the league - putting them into the bottom fifth of the league. 7 playoff appearances in 19 years isn't too bad, and they made one appearance in the title game (way back in 2003) only to lose 15-14 to Fort Knox. Last season KH posted a 6-10 record, making four straight losing seasons. The 6-10 mark earns the #8 spot in the draft queue - but alas, we've already traded away our top draft pick this year, and instead have an extra late second rounder. The team is losing money hand over fist. Attendance is routinely in the lowest fifth of the league, and last year the operating deficit was some $93 million. So we will have work to do off the field as well as on it. Our 40 year old scout Roosevelt Doyle has a record of 42-53-3 with 2 playoff appearances. We have a coaching vacancy at the moment, so one of our first decisions as a front office will be to set the tone for the style of coach we seek. Financial considerations will be important here, as well. |
Hmmm.. after a bit of looking at the geogaphical rivals, we have very limited ability to boost ticket prices. That is, unless we have a second rival (past Norfolk) who is closer to KH than Ocean City, Maryland. I haven't give this much thought... where is Athens, GA?
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This seems like a good place to post this background data:
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The four affinity groups are: |
Defensive Line
Kitty Hawk Flyers Defensive Line
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Cedric Martin: Was a 1st team all-pro in 2017 when he started 15 games and had 14.5 sacks. Martin joined Kitty Hawk after his all-pro season and has been fighting injuries all his career. Martin is the defensive front leader, idolized by the fans (94) with a strong personality(79) and very high leadership(84) skills. Despite only being with us for 2 seasons, Martin is very loyal (93) to the team. Over the last two seasons Martin has only been able to play 11 games for us, but in those 11 games he has come up with 8.5 sacks. Martin can also play the run well and will help in that aspect of the game as well. He's a solid all-around DE. When healthy he's by far the best Defensive lineman we have and he appears to be healthy going into this season. While his salary is very high, I'm hoping his loyalty to the team and his recent injury problems will lead him to accept a new contract that will benefit both the team and himself. Bruce Bush: Bruce was a 3rd round pick last year that ended up starting 12 games for us because of Martin's injury. He was able to come up with 4 sacks for the year. While not popular with the fans (18), he is a very intelligent player (94) with some leadership skills (66). He could care less who he plays for (loyalty=12) or if the team wins (6). Because of his starting last season and his carefree attitude towards the team, he may want a big increase in salary. While a worthy backup that I'd like to keep around, he's not worth starting money at this point in his career. Kyle Hurtado: Kyle was a 5th round pick last year that started 1 game and played in 13 games. He was able to come up with 5.5 sacks. A relative unknown to the fans (17), Kyle is also an intelligent player (85). Not the leader (36) that Bush seems to be in the locker room, he seems content with his place on the team. Hurtado was actually more productive last year than Bush despite not appearing to have the same amount of skill. Because of his production, he might be worth holding onto for a season if Bush wants a starter's contract. Walt Shields: Walt Shields was brought in last season as an Unrestricted Rookie Free Agent (URFA). He's a strong pass rusher, but needs to work on his technique. He started all 16 games last year and ended up with 2.5 sacks and 24 tackles/13 assists. Not a team leader (23) nor popular with the fans (18), Walt could be a good backup if he's willing to resign with the team for a reasonable salary. He might be wanting bigger money considering he started 16 games last year, in which case he really isn't worth keeping. Jack Littlejohn: Jack Littlejohn was the 2nd round pick last year and is our best DT. He started all 16 games along side Walt Shields and ended up with 1.0 sack and 35 tackles/14 assists. He's got good leadership skills (77) and would possibly take over for Martin as the Defensive Front Leader if Martin were to depart. The fans don't seem to know much about Littlejohn (pop=13) and that may be a good thing. Littlejohn has absolutely no loyalty to the team (0) and really wants to play for a winning team (95). I'd like to keep Littlejohn on board, but considering all the factors (16 starts, 0 loyalty, 95 winning team), that may prove expensive to do. Frank Davison: A 6th round pick in 2018 out of West Virginia, Frank came in and started for us his rookie season. Sadly, Frank wasn't productive with only 1/2 a sack and 24 tackles/8 assists. Last year he backed up Shields and Littlejohn and got into 14 games for very short periods. Frank only played in 81 plays from scrimmage all year. He had O sacks, 0 tackles and 3 assists. Frank may be worth keeping as a backup, especially if Shields and Littlejohn want too much money to stay with the team. Todd Ramsey: Ramsey was a 2nd round pick in 2017 and just has never lived up to those expectations. He hasn't seen any action since his rookie season. While Ramsey gets along very well with Cedric Martin, I just don't see any reason to keep him on the team. While there will be a salary cap hit with his release, I think the money we save will be better spent somewhere else. Geoff Emerson: The URFA from West Virginia, Emerson started all 16 games last season from the Right End position. He was able to get 4 sacks and 32 tackles / 9 assists in his rookie campaign. Geoff got along well with Cedric Martin and teaming them up on the ends may help both players. He's not a team leader (15) and is a quite guy (personality = 7) who follows the lead of Martin. For a first year player, Emerson has developed some loyalty to the team (56), which may allow us to sign him to a reasonable deal during free agency although his desire to play for a winning team (94) may work against us. I'd like to keep Emerson as a potential starter or at least as a backup. |
So, perhaps we make a serious effort to retain Cedric Martin, secure him as our position leader and best lineman. We see what Bush wants, but expect to see him go. Then, we'll field offers to Hurtado, Littlejohn, and Emerson in an effort to start off with a little depth. Assuming we get three guys for around 10% of the salary cap, I think that sounds pretty reasonable to me.
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I will get a scouting report of the O-line sometime tonight or tomorrow night.
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That sounds like a plan to me. It is kind of hard to make recommendations without moving forward a little and being able to see what the salary requests are going to be though. I'm kind of curious to see how Emerson would play alongside Martin since they have a affinity working. Last season Emerson outperformed his ratings, but that happens sometimes without an affinity. If he can do it again this season, I'd be more apt to attribute it to team chemistry. I'd also like to see us bring in a solid DT to shore up the run D in the middle (depending on the Def. Coordinator's plans and other needs of course). |
Keeping an eye towards finances, here's a list of four possible candidates for our head coaching vacancy.
Dixon Rivers - A very young (36) rookie head coach, he's the cheapest passable option there is. Not much for developing positions (except for RB, LB, and the secondary), but has good coaching skills. Good at Young Talent, Offensive Playcalling, and Avoiding Injury, and Very Good at Defensive Playcalling. A good coach of Veterans, he'd be a steal at $3,440,000. Russell Andersen - Reaching coaching middle age at the age of 56, Russell is a well-rounded rookie coach. Average in most respects, but very good at developing Recieveres and Kickers, and Good at developing the secondary. His coaching sklls are also well rounded, and he's is rated good at Motivation, Discipline, and Avoid Injury. He's not much more than Rivers, only $3,850,000, and would be a good coach no matter the philosophy. Juan Stone - Possibly the best development coach out there in our price range. He's at least Good in all categories of player development, save the secondary. He's also just Average with young talent. His coaching skills, however, leave much to be desired. He's 58, has no experience, and is asking $4,570,000. Billy Dayton - Probably as high as we can afford to go. He's 59, and has two seasons under his belt as coach of the Ocean City Thrashers, garnering a 16-16 record over those two seasons with no playoff appearances. He's at least average in every respect. His standout qualities at development include Very Good at Running Back and Good at Secondary, alongside a Good Young Talent rating. He also has Good Motivational skills and Offensive Playcalling skills, and is Very Good at injury avoidance. He's only asking $4,810,000, but I could see us having competition at that level if we decide to bid on him. |
Based on that (I haven't really looked yet) my inclination would be to go young and cheap, and approach Dixon Rivers first. Good playcalling skills and at least "good" in avoiding injuries sounds fine to me.
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I would think cheap would be the primary concern considering the financial house rules. We still want the best coach we can get for the money, but we definitely want to spend the least amount we have to I would think.
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Our players are professionals, they will develop themselves in their off time. We need a guy who knows how to use a playbook!
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Athens (45ish miles east of atlanta) is a little further from OBX than Philly.
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Our team has linebackers, though you would not know it to look at the roster (or, I imagine, if you had watched them play over the last few seasons).
There are no affinities or conflicts with the defensive front leader. DENNIS BAXTER, SLB--Taurus BYRON BRITO, SLB--Sagittarius *GINO DERN, MLB--Virgo *LELAND GEORGE, MLB--Aquarius **VINNY RUITER, MLB--Taurus ROGER FRANCIS, WLB--Aries *=UFA **=RFA _____________________________________ DENNIS BAXTER--A fourth round draft choice from Northwestern entering his third year in the league and the final year of his contract. In that time, he has 1 start, 30 tackles, and one sack. Our scout rates his current-future potential as 19-36. Not much more to say about him. BYRON BRITO--A third round draft choice from USC also entering his third year in the league and the final year of his contract. In that time he has 6 starts, 31 tackles, and one sack. Our scout says 22-39. He is the best of our linebackers. By default, I would be interested in offering him a contract and seeing if he gives us a reasonable offer. GINO DERN--This 6th round WSU cougar is a UFA who has spent his 8 year career with the Flyers. In that time, he has been a stalwart in the middle, starting 105 games and racking up over 550 tackles. Our scout rates him as a 36-36. Has very limited upside, but has big heart. I'd like to keep him around, at least while we are rebuilding. LELAND GEORGE--This former first round pick from Miss. St. has managed to start ZERO games for Kitty Hawk in his six year career, giving us great return on our investment. Our scout say 25-31. I say, time for us to part ways. VINNY RUIETER--We picked him up off the street last year from Wisconsin. He made two tackles for us, for which we are grateful. Our scout says 17-33. I say, we can get another and better street FA and do not need to resign him. ROGER FRANCIS--A fifth year player from the mountains of West Carolina. Has started 49 games for us and seems to have a problem staying healthy for a 16 game season. Our scout says 35-35. I think that he will ask for too much to stay on the team, but if he asks for a decent contract, then maybe. We can go toward the future without him if need be. |
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Centers
R.J. Winters: Winters is our offensive line leader at this point of his career and has not missed a game since he joined the Flyers 8 seasons ago. He has two big things working against him right now, in that he is an attractive unrestricted free agent and he will turn 35 years old this season. Our scouts still think he can perform at a high level, and I am inclined to agree. I think he can still play at a solid level for 2-3 more seasons. I strongly recommend that we attempt to resign him, based on the fact that he is very talented, a team leader, the fans love him, and we do not have anyone (in-house) that can step in and contribute at the center position. Perry Lewis: We drafted Lewis, in the fourth round, out of Temple three seasons ago. He has developed into a nice reserve player for us, particularly as a run blocker. However, he is a big liability against the pass and I do not ever see him developing into more than a backup Center and/or Guard. He is a nice utility lineman for us. In my opinion, he is coming to a make or break point in his career as a Flyer. He is solid enough talent-wise, but this is his last season under contract (he will become a RFA) and he may become too expensive for the role he fills. Still, he will be a useful member of our team in 2020. |
Guards:
Randy Lash: The 38-year old (yes, 38-years old) left guard is still among the biggest (6-8/323 lbs) and most talented players in the league, particularly at run blocking. He is a four-time all league performer, but has had problems staying healthy--he has not played in all 16 games in a season since 2012. He will easily be the starter at LG for us in 2020. He will become a free agent following this season, however, so we may want to audition some new blood at guard during the preseason. That way, he will be protected and rested, and we can have an idea of who his replacement candidates might be should he retire or leave via free agency following this season. He is idolized by fans, so expect to see plenty of #62 jerseys in the stands. Les Foley: Once among the most promising young linemen in the NFL, Foley has fallen upon hard times following (presumably) and injury two seasons ago. He is still a strong run blocker, but is a complete liability versus any type of quality pass rusher. Foley loves Kitty Hawk and his been with us since we selcted him in the first round 8 seasons ago, however, he carries a huge salary cap figure and no longer has the talent to start. To top it off, he has become increasingly unhappy at his inability to break back into the starting lineup. His cap figure is $8.22M. I strongly recommend releasing him, creating $6,46M in cap space for us this season. I would much rather see that money going toward C R.J. Winters than for a backup guard. Alonzo McCord: McCord has been with us since being selected in the first round in 2015. He is a solid, but unspectacular starter. He is very strong versus the pass rush, but sub-par vs the run. We should not run over him often, only to keep defenses honest. He might be better suited at LG, but he is pencilled in at RG for now. Depending on our offensive schemes, we may want to swap he and Lash to get strong protection on our QBs blindside while running more to our right. Barring injury, he should be a member of the Flyers for several years into the future. Rufus Peterson: Peterson was a nice suprise for us as a 7th rounder last season. He is not talented enough to be a quality starter, but he has enough balance versus the pass and run to be an adequate fill in, if need be. His price is very affordable ($860K) and he should be a strong contributor on special teams and as a backup. |
Tackles:
Willie Andrews: Andrews is an interesting player. He has very good, almost excellent, talent, but seems almost indifferent as to the success of the team. Almost as if he is going through the motions. We signed him to an enormous deal two years ago, and it may become an albatross in future years (it increases from roughly $10.5M to roughly $16.5M over the next four years), due to his somewhat advanced age of 32. Hopefully he can remain a solid contributor over the course of the contract. Andrews is a very good overall player, very consistent and pretty durable. He should start for us at LT and do a nice job. He is very close friends with center R.J. Winters, so not signing Winters could adversely affect his play. Dan Grandon: Grandon is a guy that we will need to keep a very close eye on this preseason. He is a very enigmatic player. Obviously he is talented, as we took him in the first round in 2016. However, he is not a very good pass blocker, but he is such a strong run blocker, it is hard to keep him off the field. That said, he has never been able to win a starting job in his four seasons here. His talent, potential, contract, and the fact that the alternatives are not great, indicate that he should be our starter at RT (provided we plan to run off tackle often). However, he and R.J. Winters absolutely hate one another. At last season's camp, they had to be pulled off of one another after he criticized Winters in the newspapers. However, part of the problem is that Gandon is a very strong leader himself and may be resentful that he has not been able to establish himself and gain his teammates' respect in the way that Winters has. If we are going for peace and harmony and plan to resign Winters, we may consider releasing Grandon and calling his career with the Flyers a bust. Mark Zorich: Zorich came to us as an undrafted free agent four seasons ago and has started in all four season. He is a decent pass blocker, but does not deserve to start because he simply cannot block NFL lineman on running plays. I would be inclined to keep him around as a backup, so as to keep our cohesion intact, but if he is a starter for us, we are in trouble. Darren Coffey: Coffey was an undrafted free agent signee last season that made our practice squad and stuck around all season. He is a serviceable fourth tackle, but could just as easily be a camp casualty if we bring in some competition. He is unsigned but I would like to bring him to camp if possible. I am fairly confident he would sign a minimum salary contract. |
OL Coach Comments/Questions:
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What I always seem to do is keep 10 total linemen with 1 reserve active and one inactive. Of course this is felxible as talent and needs dictate. Quote:
I concur, however my feeling is that C Perry is good enough to start if winters does not work out. Quote:
Be a shame to lose him, but if he has to go.... I myself would rather cut RB Farrell and use part of the 8M on a powerhouse like Lash. -- [putting on crazyman of the FOFC hat] A team with this much talent would be hard to assemble on my (low talent generating) home PC. Backups like perry and coffee would be startable in a season or two. |
A starting line - up of the people we have currently under contract
QB: Jon Clayton - Better Accuracy than Ater. RB: Wes Farrell with Finley coming off the bench and in situations. FB: (RB) Daniel Finley . Well, we don't have a FB on the roster, but i would probably do this anyway to get him on the field. TE: Wade Parten, but I would slot Julio Diana as the TE in some (run) formations. FL: Peter Song. A good young WR. Since are only 2, this was a no brainer. SE: Robbie Stanford. Since there are only 2 WR, this was a no brainer. I like him anyway as a possesion type. LT: Willy Andrews. LG: Randy Lash C: Lewis Perry RG: Alonzo McCord RT: Don Grandon (LT) ---- Actually, I like this group. Our QB situation is not good compared to Louisville and Lake Erie. |
Are we still going with the rule that we have to renegotiate a player's contract if we keep them on the roster?
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Yes, we will keep that rule, I think. (I haven't heard any contrary views on that) |
I think that we need to pick up at least one solid OLB in FA or the draft. We don't have anyone of real note at that position.
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I have moved forward with hiring Dixon Rivers as our coach, and decided to stand pat with out current lead scout.
In your game, you may move ahead to the FA period - for purposes of seeing how much our current players are going to demand in a new contract. That might be helpful in seeing where we're going with our roster. |
Hoping this might help, rather than have everyone simming ahead... let me know if anyone needs to know about other players I omitted...
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Contract demands for current key players: |
Looking at our QB situation relative to the division, we are going to be in a little bit of a talent hole unless we make a move in FA.
The best QBs in FA are older, but there are some short term solutions out there. A few guys that I like who are not great, but are yonger (and cheaper): Charlie LeGrand- 6 years of service, still developing. We can make him am 85 passer rating QB, which is enough to win. Darren Fenno- 6 years of service with 4 as the Starting QB for NV. He looks accurate, but I think he may be fragile. AJ Frueler- 5 Years of Service, started 16 games last year for SAC with a 86.2 passer rating. Still developing and is a good long term prospect. Interception prone, but I like him the best of the FAs. Not sure if his chemestry will mix. This would be who I lobby for. Zach O'Neill- 5 years of service, starting 16 games for TB. Poor passer rating. No better than what we have. ADDED: Ellis Comeaux- 6 years of service, started a few games here and there. Very bright (16 formations) and can pull off a safe short game. |
Of all the guys on our roster, I see us being able to afford letting go of RB Farrell the easiest. He has a high salary, only 1 year on his current contract, is older, and we have a replacement available.
I suggest to the team that we let him go elsewhere. |
Re: Defensive Line
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DE Bush 3.7, 4.3, 5.1 DE Hurtado 3.1, 3.7, 4.5 DT Littlehjohn 3.7, 4.3, 4.9, 5.6 DT Davidson 2.3, 2.7, 3.3 DE Emerson 3.6 So Martin is willing to take a major pay cut, which is good news. It looks like we will be able to retain all the players mentioned before without any significant increases in salary. I thought we might be able to retain Hurtado for cheap, but his request is a little too much IMO. |
List of O squad guys under contract I think we should NOT bring back:
QB Steve Ater RB Farrell RB Alfred Rogero G Les Foley RT Mark Zorich |
TEs
Julio Diana - Blocking End, $4,690,000, 2 yrs. We could let him go or keep him. A little overpriced unless we start him, which we could. (Recievers Leader) Wade Patten - Receiving End, $10,010,000, 3 yrs. We could let him go or keep him. Overpriced unless we start him, which we could and I would in Diana is let go. Kim Wester - Receiving End, $5,030,000, 2 yrs. We could let him go or keep him. A little overpriced unless we start him, which we could. Better blocker than Patten. Any of these guys could start, and all of them could get the axe. I would suggest keeping 2, Diana and Wester. The third TE would probably be a low cost scrub. |
I'd Keep LB Brito for the sake of keeping around one of the old guys. I think that we can let the rest of the LBs go and either use the money elsewhere or pick up one good guy and some minsal guys.
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The problem with WR Song
wants $40,490,000, 5 yrs. If we move him he will count 2 mil vs this years cap and 11 mil vs next years. (if I understand the resign to keep system we are using). |
Okay, off the top of my head, the game requires that we have active:
3 QB 3 RB 3 FB/TE 4 WR 8 OL 1 P 1 K 6 DL 6 LB 4 CB 3 S = 42 players (please correct me if Im wrong) That leaves a total of 11 more slots on the final team. Im hearing so far that we want 2-3 extra OL, maybe a third TE Im afraid well run out of slots before long. I think it would be wise if our coordinators gave us some sense of their general tendencies at each position group (how many guys would you be likely to keep on the tam at each position). In addition, since we are without a special teams coordinator, I will press that we will want at least one guy with measurable PR and KR skill on the team. So, we may have to factor those guys in at the WR or DB slots, too. |
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This is what I like: 4 QB (1 res) 4 RB (1 res) 2 FB 2 TE 1 FB/TE (could be res) 4 WR (somethimes 5) 3 T 3 G 2 C 1 T, 1G (could be Res, could slip a C in there) I keep the 4th QB on the roster because it always seems like one is down. Quote:
I never let a starter WR/RB play KR/PR, unless I have an all scrub team. The #3 and lower WR can, as can the #2 RB and lower. Very often I find one rookie free agent RB with PR and one with KR. These are often the #2 & #3 RB. Getting one with both but poor RB skills is fine if we slot him #3. The #4 WR can be mostly a STer. |
I actually prefer a 3-4 to a 4-3, so I would like, at some point to bring in more LBs. However, I also want to play the hand that we are given, so I think that a 4-3 makes sense for at least next season.
I am also a fan of O-Line depth, so I would like some cushion there. I would also like 4 DEs. Once (if) we begin running the 3-4, I would like 7-8 LBs, but 6 is fine if we are running the 4-3. I've never been a fan of the third TE. If it comes down to a choice between TE and an extra WR, I would go with the extra WR--especially if he can return kicks and punts. I can live with 4 Cornerbacks, but I would like 4 safeties. I know that these are pretty general statements, but, as (assumed) coordinator, I am more interested in playing with what we have then in building the team. More concrete--here is my perfect 53: 3 QB 3 RB 4 FB/TE 7 WR 10 OL 1 P 1 K 7 DL 8 LB 5 CB 4 S |
Is it 2 TE and 2 FB? I cannot remember, honestly. I tend to carry 2 of each, and don't recall if that's surplus.
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Good point about the #4 QB, Fritz. I think that we should have one, too.
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7 WR?
They will never play. Better to keep an extra TE on the roster so you don't have to go into midseason FA to find a sub. |
So, maybe we're looking something like this:
3 QB + 1 3 RB + 1 4 FB/TE + 1 4 WR + 1 8 OL +2 1 P 1 K 6 DL +2 6 LB +1 4 CB 3 S +1 = 43 + 10 players |
I thought that we could use this selection as a tool for preliminary roster decisions...
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Contract demands for current key players:So far, that gives us 8 players for about $40 million this year. We are going to be taking cap hits this year and next - which will have to factor into our salcap decision-making as well. We have expensive players at OL and DB to consider... and I haven't filled in anything at the QB position, either. edit - adding WR Song to our signees pushes us to about $50m spent for this year... |
Cut Song? I think that is a mistake. He will probably never play to the value of his contract, but I can't see taking an 11M hit on a 2nd year guy who could be very productive. I reccomend that we keep him.
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I like that roster setup.
In terms of actual players, that looks good right now. I'll have to be home with the files before I can really get into the #s. |
Quiksand,
What kind of contract was DT Walt Shields wanting to resign? If it's cheap, it might be worth doing just to keep some stability on the D-line. |
All things equal (absent a defined philosophy for coverage schemes), I think the DBs most worthy of a new contract would be:
CB Edgar Bordano - young, but already solid across the board, and willing to sign for less than the established veterans - upside makes him a very good player S Louie Reynolds - veteran playmaker (ballhawk) at safety, has been reserve but could be starter, good in run support It apears that KH picked up a couple of FA veterans post-camp to start for one year at CB - thus the two quality guys who are looking for new deals this year. If we kept Boprdano and Reynolds, there is some possibility that Bordano remains the secondary leader. He's rated 62 in leadership - but right now is FAR behind several guys that I doubt we'll resign. If we manage the position carefully, Bordano could be our guy on a long term deal and the positional leader to boot. Thos two would cost us something like $10 million this year - and we'd certainly have to spend some money to land another starting-caliber corner, at least. |
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He wants 2.9, 3.4 - pretty steep for stability without talent. |
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Yep....I was hoping for something around $1 Mil. |
We can cut all of the TE if need be, or go with TE Wester. There MUST be minsal guys in FA who could do just a well talent wise.
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I wouldn't mind taking a look at free agency before we decide for sure about resigning DE Emerson.
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If we re-sign TE Diana, he's practically a lock to be our receivers leader, meaning he has to start. There's also a benefit that he is a Taurus - same as DE Cedric Martin, our presumed defensive front leader.
That means that from those two position groups, we've only knocked off one sign for potential QBs (Libra). There;'s only one Libra among the current crop of FA QBs (Sam Cline) so that's some help, I think. |
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I am awaiting the TCY file that will enable us to move forward in earnest. But if you want to advance that far in your game to set a sense of what will be out there in free agency, that's fine (and within our rules). |
Copying this from the previous page for simplicity's sake:
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Contract demands for current key players:12 players tagged to sign, about $52m |
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but how much to cut.... |
I'm sure that we'll end up with a cap hit of something like $20m or so this year... but I also suspect that it won't matter. I don't think we're going to completely fill the roster with expensive free agents this season -- we neesd to try to get the books back into the black, and there will only be so many good fits among the free agent ranks. I'm guessing it will take us 2-3 seasons before we approach the salary cap.
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dola
LT Don Grandon looks like a value at $7,690,000, 3 yrs. He does have a conflict with ther proposed leader (Winters). C Lewis Perry is pretty good at $1,640,000, 2 yrs. (no bonus) With the exception of the leadership aspect, he could start and save us a ton of cap space this year. RG Rufus Peterson would be worth the $1,640,000, 2 yrs. (no bonus) take these three along with and Finley, Song, and Stafford and you have a "legacy" squad with a cost of 27.1 Mil. |
I didn't think we could have a conflict going into the season?
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Some chemistry thoughts here: Freuler is a Virgo, which conflicts with Gemini Comeaux is a Gemini, which conflicts with Virgo LeGrand is a Leo, which conflicts with Capricorn Fenno is also a Leo. |
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Fritz is backhandedly suggesting that we release our big money starting C who is also the position leader, and instead go with the cheaper backup there. That would allos us to sign the T who has the conflict with the current leader. |
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The four affinity groups are: |
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what about the hit for the year after this? If we cut QB Clayton 4.9M LT Andrews 9.9M LG Foley 3.5M RG McCord 3.3M |
I'm thinking we'll probably need to re-sign Clayton, but will release the other three... plus RB Finlay will take us for another $10m or so... ouch.
Or, perhaps the specter of that much cap punishment next season forces our hand to keep on a few of thee guys we otherwise wouldn't. My inclination is to clean out, and build around "our guys" but maybe that won't be the smartest thing to do in every case. |
1 Attachment(s)
attached is the FA list with signs (xls 98). It is set up for filtering, which should help.
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A proposal
A proposal:
We are going to be in cap hell for two season, so there is no way we can get both sides of the ball right. It seems logical that we will be more competative if we focus on one side of the ball. Since we are shy a decent QB, I think that def should get first priority when it comes to funding (and thus player retention). Cut everybody from the O and go with scrubs if need be but let us give albionmoonlight all the tools we can to do well (or hang himself). |
While the tank-the-offense is not a ridiculous proposal, are we perhaps overstating the cap issues a bit much?
I'm used to playing variants on the empty cupboard idea, and routinely field teams with 25-50% of the cap space still available. Even if we end up absorbing $20 this year and $30m next year in cap hits - I'm not sure that's all that big a deal. Yes, it keeps us two or three quality players short of where we could have been... but it's not like we won't have anything at all to work with. I think we can field a decent, probably shallow, team for two seasons with the cap problems we face by using lots of marginal fill-ins and "good chemistry" guys on the roster. That means not overpaying for tons of mediocre players... but instead accepting that some of our guys are going to be very low on the talent scale. We pick up ten guys who won't ever be in demand, and they can becoem anchors for our future plans with cohesion and team chemistry, because they should never demand big money from us. |
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After taking a peek, I say we resign Emerson. There were a couple players that were slightly better for about the same salary, but I like the fact that Emerson has the affinity with our Defensive Front Leader and I'd like to see how that plays out over another season. |
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I don't think we should tank at all, but istead of holes on both sides of the ball I think we can field one very solid unit while going through cap jail, and then build the other. What I am suggesting is that we avoid is making heavy commitments on both sides of the ball, while not getting anything right. |
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Are we considering not resigning Winters and releasing these three? Andrews I can live without, due to his cap value. But I think it would be crazy to release him this early in his contract. It makes no sense and is not very realistic. Foley, we need to dump immediately. McCord is affordable, assists in our cohesion, and is a solid starter. Perhaps I misunderstood our goals, but aren't we going for cohesion and team leadership? Making these moves completely obliterates most of the talent we have on the OL, erases our cohesion (almost completely), and dumps our leader on his butt. What is the purpose? |
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Swaggs, The only person who has seriously talked about not picking Winters back up is me. I think the rest of GT3 is fine with keeping him on. |
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I guess there are different ways to try to build cohesion (which I didn't envision as a big part of this, but definitely has become on). One is to retain all the leaders on the current team as best we can. The other is to get players we want, and to keep them around. I guess it's a matter of whether your goal is to max out cohesion in 2020 or in, say, 2025 or 2030. In my mind, I'm just afraid that we're getting to the point of having too many conflicting goals. OL is a perfect case in point - we have several high-quality players there. If we want to focus on cohesion, then we want to keep guys like C WInters and T Andrews. But at the same time, we say we're trying to build team chemistry, and have adopted a rule of no tam conflicts. These two players have a conflict. What to do? My thinking has always been that we want to basically be starting over here - that's the genesis of the "new contracts" rule -- I didn't want us to benefit from anything the previous KH regime put into place. So, my vision has basically been we build this team under tight financial rules that will require us to conserev money, use a lot of marginal players, and resort to spending real time with the game plan and team chemistry in order to be good (because we won't be able to get a huge advantage in talent over other teams). If we build a good chemistry team up, then we'll want to keep those guys around - meaning more and more cohesion ought to be an obvious by-product, but not necessarily our first consideration. Anyway - it's not just my vision that counts here, but that's what I have been thinking all along. If we collectively want to embrace a different philosophy and do more with immediate cohesion, that's certainly okay by me. |
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Actually, Fritz - I think your idea of keeping our LT instead, and going with the backup instead of C Winters is a pretty good one. It doesn't seem to be consensus (and I haven't reflected it on the SIGN/CUT list), but I personally would favor it. |
Open question to current participants:
The steam seems to have died out on the TCY side of this. Do we want to just go forward using any old TCY draft file? How important would it be to you all to see the TCY side of things? (To have the saved game, and be able to review player stats, etc) I would like to get this moving forward before we just die on the vine here - this seems to be the bext hurdle to get past. In fact - if nobody cares, we don't even have to use TCY files at all. Initially, that was one of my germ ideas, but it may not be all that meaningful after all. |
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I don't care what you guys do with the o-line, just give my guys some bodies to go up against in practice. :D |
I'm fine with dropping the TCY element altogether and going with FOF4-generated drafts. I have no strong feelings either way, but perhaps the TCY aspect is something we could add if we get enough steam going.
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Just an FYI guys I am going to have to pull out of this. (Not that I have been of any help yet anyway) But time constraints are going to be more than I expected and rather than take a role and then not have enough time to fill it I will just bow out now. I'll be reading though and if I get more time int he future and there is a place for me to jump in I will. Thanks.
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I don't see a benefit to using TCY files without there being either house rules involving TCY or some link to TCY. The TCY end of things don't seem to be moving so I say we move ahead with just using game generated draft files. To be honest, I'm a little concerned with the lack of interest we are getting with the FOF Groupthink. I'm not sure if we'll be able to generate enough interest to actually keep this end of things going. :( |
I have no interest in the TCY side of it. I think that we should not spread ourselves too thin. It's not like we have a waiting list of 30 people wanting to join GT3.
I want to maximize cohesion in 2025 or 2030 rather than now. I would rather be really really bad now, but keep a few players and some cap room with which to build in the future. I thought that C Winters and T Andrews had an affinity? What am I missing? |
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They have a conflict, Winters is the position leader and they have crossed signs. So, under our current rules, they cannot both stay (assuming Winters remains the leader, which seems likely). |
Oh. Tough call. Winters is cheaper, but Andrews is younger. I think that I would keep Andrews because he will be around long enough to groom someone under him.
However, Winters has been with us for eight years, and if he can still play at a high level for 2-3 years, that may be all we need from him. I'm fine with whatever way the team decides to go. |
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2019 Draft File Saved Game - End of 2019 Season |
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Fellow GroupThinkers, I have used the TCY draft file to advance us into the free agemcy period. And now, we can start the process of makign decisions about where we're going to go - both within our current rosters, with available free agent players, and with potential rookies (though recall, we lack a first round pick this year).
File #1 of 2 attached |
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File #2 of 2 attached
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Well, among those who are involved so far... does anyone want to sign up to become head of rookie scouting? Swaggs, Bee - as far as I'm concerned that job is available if either of you want it.
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Quik, I think you are confusing Andrews (who is a much better player but has a massive contract) with Grandon (a bit above average) in their relationships with Winters. Andrews has an "affinity" for Winters, while Grandon has a "conflict" with Winters. See my notes on the two players: Tackles: Willie Andrews: Andrews is an interesting player. He has very good, almost excellent, talent, but seems almost indifferent as to the success of the team. Almost as if he is going through the motions. We signed him to an enormous deal two years ago, and it may become an albatross in future years (it increases from roughly $10.5M to roughly $16.5M over the next four years), due to his somewhat advanced age of 32. Hopefully he can remain a solid contributor over the course of the contract. Andrews is a very good overall player, very consistent and pretty durable. He should start for us at LT and do a nice job. He is very close friends with center R.J. Winters, so not signing Winters could adversely affect his play. Dan Grandon: Grandon is a guy that we will need to keep a very close eye on this preseason. He is a very enigmatic player. Obviously he is talented, as we took him in the first round in 2016. However, he is not a very good pass blocker, but he is such a strong run blocker, it is hard to keep him off the field. That said, he has never been able to win a starting job in his four seasons here. His talent, potential, contract, and the fact that the alternatives are not great, indicate that he should be our starter at RT (provided we plan to run off tackle often). However, he and R.J. Winters absolutely hate one another. At last season's camp, they had to be pulled off of one another after he criticized Winters in the newspapers. However, part of the problem is that Gandon is a very strong leader himself and may be resentful that he has not been able to establish himself and gain his teammates' respect in the way that Winters has. If we are going for peace and harmony and plan to resign Winters, we may consider releasing Grandon and calling his career with the Flyers a bust. |
Okay, here is a tentaive list of CUTS - I'm offering this up for genral consumption before I move ahead with them. Please voice any objections.
This doesn't necessarily mean these are the only cuts, but this will give us a clearer sense of our immediate financials once we execute... er, effect these moves. - - - RB Farrell S Fyie G Lash G Foley G McCord QB Ater RB Rogero WR Stanford LB Francis K McDaniel TE Parten TE Wester P Phillips T Zorich LB Baxter DE Hurtado CB Cranga DE Bush |
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You're absolutely right. Sorry about that. |
So, on the OL - does that mean that we are probably looking at either keeping both starters (at LT and C) or going with both backups? (Since the backup KLT conflicts with the starting C)
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No thanks. I'm way to unreliable for any position of responsibility. :D |
Continuing my work on the secondary - here's a free agent I'd like to target, assuming this fits with our overall resource plan. CB Joseph Henderson is a 6th year player, who started last season for Pensacola and posted 6 interceptions. His coverage skills are improving, and we could lock him up for around $5m a year, I suspect. He's a Leo, which works fine with the other two DBs we have tagged to re-sign, so we wouldn't anticipate conflicts (although the position leader role is unsettled).
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Is there any reason not to keep the starters? |
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attached is an expanded spreadsheet that combines most of the FA information found on the various tabs. If you know how to filter and sort it can be of some help.
I work in access, so if you would like my simple DB just ask. What good is it? With this I have found a LT, Timothy John in FA. He has 6 years under his belt, is scouted as a 31 current, 51 potential, and has a leadership of 100 (and a loyalty of 90). He will be cheap to pick up. He is good enough (not great) to start, although with lowish endurance, can cement his role as a leader early, and remain the leader for as long as he is with the team. I would consider him a real asset under our structure. With this tool I can also tell that 3 other FA OLs track well for us. (8 years or less service, 40 or better future, afinity) LT JR Blair (Libra) 47/47 LG Hauserman 29/41 C Bucky Farr 42/42 Also, the two best QBs for this LT leader would be Hutchins, Chuck Sparks, Heath both decent looking and affordable. this is fun Neat Stuff |
alb, there are two stud OLBs in this free agent class, Odegard and Kasica. Are you inclined to pursue one of those guys? It looks like it would take a full $10 million or so to get them. I agree with you that this is a serious need position for us, but that is a lot to spend.
From my years with Lake Erie, I can put in a good word for Leroy Peterson, who is a pass rush specialist, but doesn't have nagligible skills elsewhere. Dig back a few years to see that he put in a pretty solid full time season with Nashua. He can be had pretty cheaply, it would appear. If our focus is run support, we coudl look to J.J. Mills, who would also come cheaply. He won't help in getting after the QB, but if we need an extra hand in stopping the running game, Mills ought to help - he has a career 15.9 TkPct. |
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Money - both guys earn a fortune. But I still think it's a viable option. |
Anyone else feel like Fritz just modernized free agency scouting?
I feel obsolete. ;) |
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As an Aquarius, assuming he became our OL leader, he would necessitate that we dump RT Coffey, who is currently on our "sign" list. Just an observation - I see Coffey as a very easily replaceable player. |
I would be for keeping both OL starters. They are both older, so they will not be around for long. My thinking is that they will be going gently into that good night right about the time that we could use their cap room (and it lets us groom a young OL under them in the interim).
I don't think that I should be downloading these files at work, so I will have to wait until tonight to look at the FA situation. LB is our biggest need on D, so if we can find a stud there, I would be inclined to go for him (it would be the biggest upgrade available). I would like at least one LB to be a stud. I can give more input when I look at the files. |
So, it seems like we have some big decisions to make on the OL. Swaggs has given us an excellent scouting report on the lay of the land - but we have to decide how much we want to invest in this area for the short term (as our top two players are both expensive, long-term veterans).
Seems to me the options are something like: - Re-sign both C Winters and T Andrews, invest in their affinity and get what we can out of them both for the next few years - Re-sign C Winters and perhaps go with the free agent T Johns, as suggested above by Fritz's "tool" - Let C Winters go, and instead go with our current backup LT Grandon, who may become the position leader, and probably stick with curretn backup C Perry as our much cheaper starter - Essentially abandon the offense entirely for the next year or two, and try focus nearly all our resources on the defense (still on the table, though hasn't really been "seconded") This seems like a good area to focus our first collective decision, which involves all the components of hat we've been trying to incorporate in this challenge. Am I missing viable options here? What say you all? |
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I say we appoint Fritz's "tool" scouting director. :D |
An idea, that I think would be both helpful and fun, would be for one of us (presumably QS), that would hold the title of GM, and would act as the overall administrator of the team, which is what he is more or less doing now, anyway. Perhaps the GM should set some yearly and long range goals (on field success, financial success, etc.) and remind ourselves of them prior to each season.
I am fine with building for the future (and hopefully didn't sound too abrasive in some of my posts), but I hate to think we will not ttry to field a competitive team each year. That said, I just want to make sure I am on the same page and in-line with the rest of the franchise, be it trying to win at any costs (boo!) or trying out some new spins like the cohesion/leadership/handicapped finances angle. |
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If I get a chance (I am in the middle of losing my job) I will webify my scouting data. A note on the data: The scouting is just the overall scout number, which is very suspect. Because of this you still need to lay the ole eyeball down, but it does let you filter. |
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Just so we are clear, T Andrews is in the eary stages of a mammoth contract given to him by the previous ownership group. He is still owed $13.2M in signing bonuses over the next four seasons, so I think we would be better off in letting him play this season (with a cap hit of roughly $10.5M) than to release him and pay $6.6M this season and $6.6M next for him not to play for us. After this season, releasing Andrews and his signing bonus (factored with his increasing base salary) would be a little more palatable. |
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