GroupThink 3 - Kitty Hawk, 2022
 

GroupThink 3 – Kitty Hawk Flyers

We’re up to the year 2022, our third with this franchise. We cleaned house in 2020, and posted the franchise’s first winning season in five seasons. Last year, in 2021, we made it all the way into the league championship game, despite serious injuries (including once again a QB injury for the playoffs).

If you are inclined to follow along, you may download the files below. Even without the files, all are welcome to join in the discussions and voice your thoughts or support.


Here are the house rules that we have been following:

PLAYER ACQUISITIONS
-Players other than undrafted rookies may only be acquired during the draft and the 20-stage FA process
-No initiating trades, other than tades during the draft involving current year's picks only
-Team may respond to trade offers that pass the standard fairness test (alter and confirm)
-Team may not accept a first round draft pick in trade for a reserve player
-Every FA offer to a player requesting any bonus (not including current team members) must include a signing bonus at least as large as the highest year's salary
-Team may make unlimited FA offers before the first week of free agency, and then no more than two more offers before the end of the FA process

ROSTER MANAGEMENT
-Team may not renegotiate or extend any player contracts
-Team may not enter the regular season with a chemistry conflict
-All positional team leaders must be starters for the team
-All positional team leaders must receive at least a qualifying offer from the team for a new contract

FINANCES
-Ticket prices for each level must remain below the average of two closest teams, geographically
-If team runs an operating deficit, the following year the team must remain 10% under the salary cap
-The preceding effect is cumulative - two running annual deficits require staying 20% below cap, etc.
-Cannot have both scout and coach in the top ten salaries of the league

ACCOUNTABILITY
-A coach with a losing record the season his contract expires can not be rehired
-Last place in the division gets the coach fired (unless it is his first year with the team)
-Last place in the conference gets the "starting" QB sacked (unless he is in his first 3 seasons)
-Last place in the league gets the coach, starting QB, and scout canned.



As we head into the 2022 season, the biggest question is not with our players, but rather with our balance sheet. If we lost operating revenue in 2021 (which we expect), we will be under a 20% salary cap limit this year, which means that we’ll have a serious amount of rebuilding. The decisions we can make ahead largely hinge on the bottom line.

2022 offseason

We have had two retirements from the team this offseason – both of which will have a meaningful effect on the season ahead. C R.J. Winters was the foundation player for our offensive line, and the centerpiece of our inside running game. He hangs up the cleats after working out well for us for many, many years.

DE Cedric Martin was our best pass rusher, and the leader of the defensive front. He had real health problems, and his availability was erratic – but there was no questioning his effectiveness when he played. He, too, will be missed.


But, the biggest issue of all is on the team’s balance sheet. With trepidation, we have a look at the books… which reveal a $15.5m operating profit for the 2021 season. By dropping our player bonus spending, we made up a huge financial gap, and got into the black for this season. That will be a huge relief for the player side of the equation – and might open up some options that we had considered completely off the table for us. Great news!


And so, with all that, here is the roster situation—sorted by cap number, for our management convenience:



And, for those who are following the “team chemistry” issues closely (as we are obliged to do under our rules), here is a snapshot of that stuff:


The big issue here (which we did see coming) is that T Timothy Johns, as our offensive line leader, must receive a qualifying contract offer from us. In all likelihood, that means a substantial increase in salary for him. Actually, it looks like the OL will be an area of major decision-making this season, as we have a lot of players without contracts there (and only three there with contracts).

TE Diana and FB Kowalski are also due new contracts - we'll see what happens there, as both are very marginal players (I doubt we'll have competition).

Lots to do ahead…

File #1 of 2

File #2 of 2

QS - Last "year" I attached two draft files. I think one was a TCY file from 2021 and the other from 2022. I wasn't sure which would correlate to our FOF4 dynasty. Do you recall which file you used? If you used the 2021, then we should be able to use the 2022 file. If you used the second of the two, let me know and I will sim a year and provide a draft file for our use.

Congrats Flyers on a great year. While it is a bitter pill to make it to the Super Bowl and not win, I think most of us are very pleased with making it there at all.

Great news on the balance sheet!! I was prepared to say bye to most of our favorite players. Maybe we'll be able to keep the bulk of the team intact.

rules proposal

team leaders must play if probable or better
team leaders must be slotted for at least "3" playtime.

Sounds like a good set of rules. The only change that I would make is the situation where we have a team leader who is actually a really good player and who is probable and who we would like to rest in a "meaningless" game (such as we had at the end of last season).

In other words, as in all of our rules, I would like the ability to bend them when it is realistic and in the spirit of the game.

Looking at last season, I see some really positive things on which to build.

We gave the ball away less than any other team.

We took it away more than every team but one.

We were the third highest scoring team in the league.

We were the second best defense (in terms of points allowed) in the league.

It is also cool that Harden and Rubble both got end of season awards despite the fact that one of them started one game and the other started 6 games. Good use of the backups by Fritz.

Also--a DC's best friend is a good running game. I am happy to see so many of our O-linemen in the pro-bowl.

We'll need to hire a scout this year as Roosevelt Doyle is out of contract. Doyle is a very good scout, but I think may be too pricey for us. Some good alternatives might be Jeffery McCarthy or Donovan Ursino.

My thoughts regarding scouts:
Whether we realize it or not, we depend heavily on our scout. When deciding who to start, we look at our team through his eyes. When deciding who to draft, we look at the draftees through his eyes. When signing free agents, we look at the available players through his eyes. When evaluating our opposition, we look at the other teams strengths and weaknesses through his eyes.

As a result, I generally like to get a darn good scout. However, with our financial restraints, I don't think that is the best alternative. It would be great to get Doyle back, but I think he would absolutely submarine our balance sheet. Therefore, with reluctance I support either of the two cheaper alternatives with a preference for Ursino.

Jeffery McCarthy - $430,000 * 45 = $19,350,000 in scouting costs
Donovan Ursino - $520,000 * 45 = $23,400,000 in scouting costs
Roosevelt Doyle - $820,000 * 45 = $36,900,00 in scouting costs

As a refresher



And our CURRENT position leaders are:


DE Martin was a Taurus, in case we want to consider finding a replacement for him other than Littlejohn. Also, scrub DT Mario Preston has a little problem with Littlejohn being named Defensive Front leader. If Littlejohn stays as D Line leader, Preston will have to go (no great loss).

Since this year is a "free spending" year, perhaps it would make sense for us to be a little reckless with our immediate funds... sine it's pretty likely that we will have to pay out plenty of bonuses this year, and we're pretty likely to run a loss for the year anyway... why not spend it while we've got it now, and then cut back for next year when we have no choice?

Just a thought... after getting to but losing the Superbowl, it would be understandable to have a "go for it" mentality.

Welcome, friends to the meaningful stages of the offseason.

We have brought aboard a new director of scouting, and welcome Donovan Ursino to our ranks. I don't find any particular weaknesses in his acumen - he is rated "good" or better with every position group. He's our kind of guy (as in, he is the cheapest working scout in the league).

We have advanced to the free agent stages of the game, where we can start assessing the moves that we seek to make in the coming season. Picking at #31 in the draft (of course) we shouldn't expect to find many immediate impact players that way - so we probably need to fill holes by way of free agenst wherever possible.

A file update will follow this message.

File #1 of 2

File #2 of 2

Here is a quick synopsis of our players currently without contracts, and the initial demands that they have to re-sign. (Shown is the 2002 contract amount and the duration of the requested deal)


You will quickly note that our “position leaders” generally have a pretty high view of themselves, and the three guys there are seeking a collective $12.5m this year, with Johns’ contract escalating nicely into the out years. This is probably the starting point for our considerations – we are obliged to submit a qualifying offer to each of these guys, and I have to think we’ll end up getting all three.

I don't think it helps that Diana has a loyalty of 100, and wants a winner of 81. Hmm, Johns' loyalty is pretty high too.

How can we not bring Sparks back at that salary?
of the other non-leaderhsip manadated players, I would like to see Peterson and Hausermann return. I think they can be upgraded in FA or the draft, but they will do.

Mills and Shon are both getting a little long in the tooth. However, after losing Martin this offseason, I don't want to completely gut our front seven.

Mills played above his ability last year, and, if I had to choose between the two, I might be inclined to pick him. Shon has done well, however as WLB (though not quite as well as I would have liked).

If we were to somehow keep them both, then we are set at starting LB with them on the outside and Daniels in the middle. Perhaps it would make sense to offer to them both. If they both accept for next year, then Shon is gone after this year anyway (when we need the money).

Also (and here I am role-playing as the DC who wants players and damn the costs) WE NEED AT LEAST ONE SERVICEABLE DE.

As far as the secondary goes, I think that they played well last year, and I don't see a need for big upgrades there (from what I remember).

Sparks is also idolized by the fans.

Is it against the rules to pick up someone like QB Ethan Francis? 6th year guy, played very little, REAL cheap. Of course, he's dumb too. Or is this guy basically a bust waiting to happen?

Quik - Where are we on ticket prices? Are Norfolk and Ocean City going to show us a little love and jack up the prices? Also, since Quik is in a spending mood, what are peoples thought of upgrading the turf? It is in fair condition now. It might help alleviate injuries if we upgrade it. Don't know how much it will cost, but thought I would throw it out for consideration.

Also, where are we regarding draft files? Are we going to be able to use on of the draft files I posted in last year's thread, or will I need to sim another TCY season and post that file?

I'm curious to find out what the draft class looks like. I'm hoping there is more talent at DE than last year. We could use some D Line depth.

Also, another thing to consider - Diana (14yrs.) and Kowalski (13yrs.) are both nearing retirement. I'm guessing they will retire at the end of the next contract they sign.

I think we need to do some serious succession planning so that we don't end up with a situation like we have on the O Line with Johns. It's not a horrible situation, but it could have been. This also goes with the D Line. With Littlejohn around 77 (I think) we need to be cautious with who we bring in. I suggest going after a young, quality, proven free agent DE with very high leadership. Someone we WANT to be a starter until he retires. Of course they should have the appropriate sign so as to not disrupt the current chemistry.

QBs (not looking at chem)

Billy Joe Mason - he may the ideal QB for what I want to do.

Ellis Comeaux - A fair fit and affordable

A.J. Freuler - a guy I can work with, but exactly the type the GM is not fond of (INTS). Very affordable.

Ethan Francis - guy to grow with, but he only wants 1 contract year. My suggestion is to bring him in for a look and use him as a back up. If we like where he is ina year we can offer him a multiyear extension to start.

Terry Blair - another high INT type that would otherwise be a fantastic fit. Wanting a two year contract on the cheap this guy would be great fit.

I give you G Mickey Lester. Affinity, and hyper lopsided to run. At $7,710,000, 3 yrs he is affordable.

I give you LT David Huntley

At $7,600,000, 3 yrs he is very affordable.

No affinity, but no conflict. I really want this guy.

C Chuck Drake

Not as good as winters, but he will do as a solid backup and can take over if the time comes after this season. No affinity. $2,700,000, 2 yrs but with no bonus.

How can we say no?

Our reserve FL Matthews is developing into a nice looking WR for a 7th rounder. I hope we can do as well with his replacement.

Before we go signing anyone, I want a thorough check on their sign and their leadership. Lets continue thinking big picture, for the future, metagame and all those cliched terms.

As I noted above, and you will discover when you have a chance to get the most recent files, we have already moved past these stages. Our ticket prices increased very modestly in keeping with our competitors', and we did not take any action with stadium enhancements.

I have used the second of the TCY draft files, and double-checked to ensure that none of the players looked familiar. I have not yet done any studying of the incoming rookie class, but this is already underway.

Hope that helps.

Where do we play this guy? We have a stud at LT, our position leader has to start at RT, and a fairly promising youngster as our 3rd tackle. What do we do with a $2+ m investment at this position? Start him at a guard spot?

Quicksand:
You mentioned that the team made $15 million last year and beacause you didn't have too many signing bonuses that helped keep costs down. How mcuh did the playoff games help?

everyone:
Sparks looks pretty reasonably priced to me. He didn't happen to gain back the 2 TE set did he? Wylie got hurt at the end of the year but I think theis guy has star written alll over him. He caught just about everything thrown his way and had a pretty good YPC for a TE as a rookie.

Great job turning around a morbid franchise quickly guys!

Doing this without the game file in front of me:

Daniels was a first team pro-bowler last year. However, depending on how much he is making--relative to other middle LBs--does it make any sense to release him and use the money to pick up a stud DE (who can be expensive) and a cheaper replacement at MLB?

I like Daniels a lot. He makes 100+ tackles a season, and he stays healthy. An 8 year vet, he also probably has another 3-4 solid years in front of him. I would like to keep him. However, as we are examining our finances, I can't help but notice that the second highest paid player on our team is a MLB.

I'd agree that this is a bit of a need. There are a couple of studs in the draft, but I don't think they'd be available at 31st pick (there are 4 top DE's, then a dropoff).

Someone we might want to keep an eye on though is Brian Jefferson, LDE out of Brigham Young. He's a Virgo, so he'd have an affinity with Littlejohn (assuming he's still the leader), and is26/95 for PR technique and 76 for PR strength. Not as good against the run though, and not much endurance. Rated 29/49 overall, so obviously not a first rounder.

Let's see here - a few follow-up notes:

-Bidding for Billy Joe Mason starts around $20m a year, with a monster signing bonus. Unliikely we can do that.

-Comeaux can be had for around $3m/yr, and is chemistry-neutral

-Freuler is a conformed pick-thrower with more Int than TD for his career, including 22/29 last year... he'd have an affinity with DE leader Littlejohn

-Francis is young and unproven, might make a solid backup, I agree... probably would take a two year no-bonus offer, very palatable... he'd be chemistr-neutral (same sign as two leaders)

-Blair doesn't have the track record of interception problems that Frauler has, but our scout says he will be careless... wants $3m+... chemistry neutral


Looking around, I don't see anyone who really would help out much as a chemistry influence (Bobby Griffin is best I could fine, but he'd be a very shaky #2)... so my inclination might ne to pursue Heath Sparks for something like $4m/yr to return as our top option, and then to go after Ethan Francis as a decent, developable #2 for as long as deal as we can get with him. If we do that, we probaby don't need to make QB a priority for the draft, though we may need to consider waiving Bennie Tittle for salary reasons (and presumably replacing him with a rookie).

I have complete faith in my Assistant Scout. I taught him everything he knows. And as mentioned in last years thread, he works cheap! :D ;)

Tough to say... our ticket and suite revenue were up 32% and 41%, respectively, and that accounts for soemthing like $30 million. That certainly helped. That revenue, though came from three sources in theory: (1) improved attendance overall, (2) higher ticket prices, and (3) an extra home playoff game to boost receipts.

Our attendance report shows us down to 53,700 from 55,500 the prior year -- I cannot explain why that would be, other than some respone to ticket price increases overwhelming the presumably higher interest in the team from our successes.

As for the playofff game - we got to host only one game in 2021... and I honestly cannot recall whether we played at home in 2020 (I think we were on the road only). So, that extra game certaibnly played a role... presumably increasing our attendance-related revenue by something like 12-14%.

Bottom line seems to be that we increased ticket prices, managed to hold our attendance per game pretty even, and earned one extra game -- all of which contributed to our bailing out of the red for the year.

The free agent market at DE looks pretty shabby, gang. Unless we're willing to lay out really big bucks, I don't see many guys worth the mid-level contracts they arer seeking.

I don't think we can - Drake is definitely going to get an offer from us. We start at his asking price of 2yr, $2.7m - good value.

Just to keep a watch on these things, what is his leadership, and how old/young is he? I would look, but am at work and don't have access to the game. My apologies for having to ask.

What do we do with him? We play him! For now I would set him as the top BU to the T position and drop Johns playtime. We are are at a point where having a quality backup with some years ahead of him is needed at the position. Andrews is getting up there a little and will want 12mil next season. Having an alternative in place would be nice. Plus Huntley can swap in for another line position if needed. Again, I feel he is a good talent at a modest price who can help us for at least 3 seasons.

What about Finley? He tailed off production wise a bit last year. If we can find another steal in the draft (a'la ROY Harden) to platoon with Harden, is it worth keeping Finley at his salary?

C Drake is a 5th year player rated 54 in leadership, very little likelihood that he assumes the position leader level.

The trouble with Finley is that he is currently receiving the benefit of "overlapping" deals, and so his contract consists of $5.5m in salary this year and next, plus $4.36m in bonus prorated to each season. If we cut him, we clear out $5m in cap space, but that's all-- and we eat the $4.26m this year and next.


I think it's unlikely we'd find a RB who is superior to Finley for the $5.5m in cap space that we'd release -- guys like Wesley Woodard are about as good as we can do there, and are less proven than Finley, I think. I think if we were going to cut Finley, it woudl have to be with an eye on making RB a "cheap" position - and intending to use Harden, Strong, our FB Rubble, and whatever we get from the draft as ous main weapons there.

With RB seeming like a deep position in the TCY drafts, this might be a defensible decision -- but it's tough to deny that Finlay has been there when we've needed him. 31/32 starts, and over 2.500 yards rushing in the two seasons we've been at the helm...plus he is an affinity guy with our position leader, and is a fan favorite. Plenty of reasons to suck it up, and keep paying him.

What $$ range are we talking? RDE J.C. Sinclair might be ok, he's asking $9,300,000, 2 yrs. 1st round choice in 2017. 11 sacks his first year, demoted in his 2nd, 11.5 his third, injured and/or demoted his 4th. Scouted 47/53 over all. An upgrade over what we have.

LDE Lenny Boykin looks like he would be ok - 75/75 run, 75/75 pass (also $9,300,000, 2 yrs.), but he has NO endurance and is a light hitter. LDE C.J. Benton is even cheaper, but looks to have a history of injuries (but as a Saggittarius would mesh with Littlejohn).

Again, playing devil's advocate here...

But what is the real value of a $2.5m OT who's pretty decent? Look at how many of them there are this year - maybe ten or so guys out there? Just like two years ago, when we made the decision to sign T Johns, because he was decent and cheap. It just seems like this is how teh game works-- this position is always ripe in free agency, including plenty of guys who are willing to work for less than 2x the veteran minimum.

I agree that Huntley is the best of tis year's lot, sure. But what are we paying for? $2.5 million would make him one of our top 20 salaries... and all we'd do is reduce the starter's playing time to give Huntley a chance to play a bit? With real problems at other positions on the team (DE, QB, WR?) it's hard for me to accede that this is the most important place for us to spend some real money. Yes, $2.5m is modest in the sense that it's not $8 million... but that's at leats as much as we paid most of the guys we have brought in to start for us in past year -- starters at LB, DT, WR and even OL.

I think the only way that I can get behind Huntley at this price is if we think that he is so good that he will play for us right away at LG. He's a run-heavy guy, he fits with what we want to do with ouur OL - if he'll contribute right away, then fine - I'm good with bringing him in at that price. But I don't think we need a $2.5 million benchwarmer (at a position that traditionally sufferes by far the fewest injuries in the game).

Alternatively, if we think that we need to cut our current LT to save cap space, then Huntley might make loads of sense - to step right in and play for us at LT. That would be plenty sensible in my mind as well. I don't hear that argument at this point...

That's where I am on this. If it turns out that we don't have players we really need, and that we have money to burn this year, then I might well revisit my thinking on him. But as it is, I just don't see backup offensive tackle as a "need" position.

Looks like the best of the mid-priced lot, there. I think Sinclair is the most promising of the bunch... we're talking about putting up at lest $4-5 million in signing bonus to this guy, though. I have some trepidation, especially since I just see him as an "adequate" player, nothing too special. Last time we pursued a decent DE in free agency, we ended up laying out a huge deal for Todd Biegen, who we cut the following season and ate a big chunk of his bonus. Maybe that's my fear here.

follow on to follow on notes:

- I didn't think we would make an investment in a Billy Joe Mason, just pointing out that he was close to perfect for what I am trying to do.

- I know management has an issue with interceptions, and Freuler has thrown a ton of them, but the coaching staff is comfortable with them. Freuler would be a nice addition, and I am sure we could get him on the +side of TD:Int.

- Francis is an absolute must go after type. If he stinks we can send him packing at very little cost to the club.

- Blair careless? I think he just gets excited.

I don't think we have any great options at DE for this year, honestly. How would people feel about heading into the season again planning to staff at least one DE position with guys who are nominally OLB?

Since we have a number of decent players at that spot (OLB) it's a natural thing to consider. Re-signing LB Mitchell would just give us one more guy to use there, as well.

Switching to the 3-4 probably should be back on the table again, I suppose. Nominally, we could move DT Peters or DT Littlejohn to the DE position, and then we could start four LBs behind them. That would give us only one DE spot to worry about, either by way of free agents or by rookie additions.

Probably need to think abouut this one... before we commit big money to a decent DE in free agency.

Fritz, what kind of financial investment do you think is reasonpable for the QB position in total?

If we pursued Francis as our #2, put him behind Sparks or one of the other $3-4m/yr guys you have pointed out, and had cheap guys as our #3 and #4... we'd have something like $7 million in that position.

If we pursued a veteran to be our #2 guy in addition to Sparks, then we'd be talking about $9-10m there.

Any input on how important the #2 QB job is... or do you defer to the greater will there? (We've obviously had to resort to our #2 QB at criticl times each season... so that might color our decision)

Let me try this approach...

The offensive staff does not clamor for high profile top shelf players, but we do like to have depth. Huntley give us depth. We like to have our potential starters on the roster before they are needed, and Huntly gives us that as well.

I hope management reviews the gamelogs and realizes that the coaching staff makes good use of players, even ones in a reserve role.

This guy will improve the team and is very affordable. Lets afford him.

My thoughts on offense:

QB's tend to be one of the more overpriced positions in the game. RB's also tend to be a little pricey, if they are a star (NOTE: the draft has supplied a good number of good, cheap RB's the past 2 years). FB's and TE's tend to be a good value. O Line seems like it is priced about right or a shade toward the value side.

As a result, I'd like to see us move in the direction (which I think we are/have been) of assembling a very stout O Line, good FB's and TE's, and then going for lesser QB's, RB's and WR's. In my opinion, a good, strong, balanced O Line will elevate a mediocre QB and RB in to a good QB and RB. Likewise a good QB and RB into a very good QB and RB.

In regard to the WR's, I'd like us to consider an idea I've been toying with. If we can find a QB who is very good on short and medium routes, with good accuracy and timing, I'd like to couple him with receivers who are excellent at getting downfield. If I remember correctly, getting downfield to some degree equates to "yards after catch". I'm curious how a short, accurate passing game with receivers who can break it for extra yardage would work. It might allow us to find a "system" type QB and complementary recievers cheaper than all-around players.

Just throwing it out there for you guys to chew on.

While the offensive staff and the front office have differed on matters of philosophy at times, it's hard to refute the overall success of the planning done by said staff.

If this is your guy, we'll go get him.

Our offer now on the table: 3yrs, $7.6m ($2.0m bonus)

What I think works best for us is 4 QBs. #4 is a roster saver and can be anyone. This just keeps us from having to make a midseason pickup.

#3 should be a developing guy. By our draft standards he is probably a second day pick.

#2 and #1 should be close in talent. A little better than a backup but not what other teams would look at as a starter. Sparks and Hutchens are a good example of this.

Looking at the current salaries, I think we should be able to get by around 10 M.

Sparks: 4.2
Francis: 1.4
Freuler/Blair 2.7
Rookie .7

is a little under that figure.

Top 20 QB avg sal is 5 Mil. We are shooting under that.
Top 5 QB avg is 11 Mil. We are getting our whole QB staff for under that.

In regard to DE - How does the draft class look? Are there any good prospects that might still be around when we pick?

If not, might we consider trying to trade up? I believe our rules allow this:

-No initiating trades, other than trades during the draft involving current year's picks only.

the QB position is one that will require some attention, and most likely some $'s. Numbers wise we seem to be in pretty good shape. There aren't a large number of contributing players that we will need to re-sign, and not a lot of holes to fill, QB, O Line and DE being the noted exceptions. As a result, would it be worthwhile to perhaps trade away some picks to move up in the draft?

Generally I think the AI asks for way to much when trading and I very rarely do it, but once again wanted to throw it out as food for thought.

albionmoonlight... what gives with our nickelback getting all these sacks? I notice that CB Perry, who has a pretty mediocre season in coverage, did manage to post a crazy 8.5 sacks in only 257 pass plays last season. The year before, we got sacks from guys like CB Luther Duran (4) - presumably from being used in the same role.

Can you help 'splain what's going on with our defensive scheme? Is the "nickelback" role so heavily used in pass rushing that we really ought to be putting someone a little beefier back there?

3-4 discussion:

I think this may be the year to try out the 3-4. I wanted to do it coming in. I have been happy, however, with the 4-3, and part of me does not want to make a major change in a "make or break" year.

Still, since we are paying a lot of attention to the defense, it may be good to see how much a 3-4 changes what we have done from the 4-3.

If there are no good DEs in the draft or FA, then there are no good DEs. If we go to the 3-4, then we can use one of our DTs from last year as a DE. The other DE can be one of our OLBs. We still need someone, however, to replace Martin. That someone can be a MLB or an OLB (or even a DT), but we need at least one other body on the front seven.

If I am remembering right, I can see a 3-4 lineup like this

SLB: Mills
WILB: Shon
SILB: Daniels
WLB: [New guy] or Middleton

DE: Littlejohn
DT: Peters
DE: Middleton or [New guy]

Let's see... we could probably move from #31 to around pick #12 or #15 by giving away the meat of our draft-- our 2nd and 3rd round picks, I'm guessing, perhaps another minor pick in there.

I agree with the earlier assessment - there are four top-grade DEs in the draft. Perhaps if we get past pick 10 or 12 or so, we can consider making an offer of this nature. But I wouldn't want to trade up in advance to pick #12 or so, only to find that we don't get any of our guys there.

I'm confident that we coudl get a playable guy at #31 at DE... probably not a star, but a guy we coudl suit up and use there for a few years, perhaps in rotation with more talented guys from the OLB group.

There are also at least a couple guys at LB who might be able to switch over and formally switch over to DE... that might be a backdoor way to fill the position a little more easily, but it involves some risk, too.

on QBs: I don't value star-talent nearly as much as depth. A pair of guys like Sparks/Hutchens is better than a stud and a dud combo.

We could go with #1 Sparks and the #2 Francis. I think if we bring Francis in #3 this season we can talk him into resigning with a chance to compete for #1 at the end of the year. I know that is a bit speculative, but I think it is a solid philosophy in this case.

I don't know, honestly.

I have the sack percentages weighted very heavy toward the LBs. The only member of the secondary who is slated to get more than a de minimis amount of sacks is SS (~10%).

We played a lot more nickel last year. Perhaps the nickel defense replaces the WLB with the nickleback and then gives the nickelback the WLB's sack percentage (~70%).

One way to check that theory would be to look at the plays each player played last year. If this theory is correct, Shon should have less plays per game than Mills or Daniels.

Another theory is that I have the "blitz multiple" box set to 65 (50=normal). I assumed that the multiple blitz would stick to the percentages that I listed on the screen. However, perhaps FOF uses the nickleback when it pulls the second blitzer.

Those are the two things that occur to me off the top of my head.

Thank you.

While we respect the thoughtful approach to salary management, we also appricate that the front office is flexible in accomdating the field staff.

While we have your attention, can the water cooler in the training room be replaced with one that has a hot water tap? The TE coach is a big fan of herbal tea.

Okay, this presumes that we successfully re-sign both LB Mills and Shon. I'm not opposing this, just pointing out that we don't have all the eggs in ouur basket yet for this.

We do have a backup plan, though - as young LBs Rapp, Boyd, and Mitchell (assuming we re-sign him) are all ready to contribute. They may not be as stroing against the run as Mills, but each guys is multi-talented, and can contribute anywhere along the LB/DE axis.


And back to my question from this duscussion last year... do we have a sense what we gain or lose by switching to the 3-4 as envisioned above, and by stickinng with the 4-3 as we have it, using ouur two DTs as DTs, and taking out fourth LB and using him at DE? Again, I don't have much sense of this... but your inclusion of a LB in the DE mix even with the 3-4 alignment seems to beg the question.

Are their any quality DT's in the FA market? Since we are considering shifting a DT to DE are there any DT's that might make good candidates for picking up a backdoor DE on the cheap?

This is my theory, too. Interesting, though - I have never seen so many sacks from a DB without there being a conscious design behind it.

Anyone have any thoughts about WR Walt Pritchett? He's had a few good years during his long career (including one pro-bowl season), and can still contribute. He's only looking for about $2.6m a year - pretty cheap overall. I don't reckon we'd find lots of competition for his services.

Anyone interested?

The Kitty Hawk front office is pleased to announced that we have re-signed LB Otis Mitchell to a two year deal, which will keep him on the team through next season. As we face uncertainty with out defensive front seven, we're pleased to have a primising young player committed to being part of our clun moving forward. We expect Mitchell will get opportunities to contribute this year and beyond.

I'd need to look at the file, but if we have youth ready to fill the roles of Shon and Mills, I can work with that.

I don't really know what difference the game engine will make with the 3-4 instead of the 4-3.

One thing we can do from it is blitz from more directions--it is a bit more flexible that way.

Otherwise, I don't know if it will make a practical difference at all. Perhaps changing would be a way for us to learn a bit more about the game.

The good thing is that--depending on what falls to us--we don't really have to make that choice until before the first game of the season.

Also--I would love to trade up and snag a top 4 DE in the middle teens of the draft. However, if we are expecting economic sanctions again next year, then we may be looking for our 2nd and 3rd round picks from this year to contribute. We don't want to end up like the Saints after the Ricky Williams deal and have no depth.

When you run the draft, I would like you to stop it after the 3rd of the 4 gets picked. Depending on where the draft is at that point will dictate, to me, whether we should trade up or not.

Back to nickelback... I wonder if perhaps the best guy for the job there is S Orlando McNair? We've seen both guys on coverage - and the stats speak for themselves, McNair can get the job done. If we are going to continue using the nickel package frequently, McNair gives us every bit of the coverage skills that we have in Perry, but he is 20 pounds heavier and a far superior run enforcer.

Sommething to think about... last year we struggled to find a way to get McNair onto the field. I'll defer to our DC, but this seems like a possibility to me.

Good plan. Will do.

My answer to that is...what happens if you convert a LB to a DE? I'm guessing that they lose some green and probably most of their red. I believe playing a LB as a DE probably has a similar effect. Yes, we haven't been bitten by using the LB as a DE, or have we? What are Middleton's numbers? And when Shon played?

Also, it seems like we had one game where our opponent beat us with long gains to the outside. I'm not saying that a LB as a DE won't or can't work. I'm just not sold on the fact that it has worked.

In my opinion having a "regular" DE as opposed to a converted LB has a better chance for success, even if the DE is a little lower in the skill categories. Just my impression, based on not a lot.

I don't believe there is much evidence to this effect.

I've played plenty of FOF, and have had great successes using players out of their listed positions -- most notably RBs playing WR, and C playing G or T, but also LB playing DE, S playing LB, and so forth.

Yes, the game"punishes" players when they try to switch positions, but whatever penalty exists when a player plays out of position, it doesn't seem to be very noticeable.

And that's my main question ... if we can use that 4th LB as a DE anyway, then what's the point of switching to the 3-4? There may not be an answer to that, except for the marginal issues that alb has already brought up.

Easy way to check if you are not opposed to it. Fire up the game and convert all of our LB's to DE's. Note the results. Of course this would mean exiting without saving. It should give us a reasonable answer to our question.

And as FOF is concerned, there may not be much difference. I am probably thinking too much in a "real world" sense. If you are deep at LB and weak on the D line, a switch to 3-4 is a little easier to swallow. You do have a valid point that if we are playing a LB as a DE, what difference does it make.

No, no, no. Sorry, I'm not being clear.

I'm well aware that if you actually switch a LB to DE, he suffers a hit in ratings. Our guys, as it turns out, are too small to even try.

I'm just saying that putting an OLB like Middleton in to play DE like we did last year tends to yield pretty acceptable results (like it did last year). I don't think these guys play as if they had the "penalized" ratings - I think they generally play as though they were in the right position all along. If there's a "penalty" being applied, it's not as severe as what we frequently see if you actually switch them.

did you notcie he is still recoving from an ACL?

Song/Sanderson/Carr makes for a good lineup. 2 rooks to round out the squad will be fine unless we find a real steal.

SE Everett Thomas is more of of the type I would look for if we were going to bring a guy in.

He has good hands on 3rd down and would be a possesion type. He can also return a punt.

Then have we checked to see if there are any good FA LB's that might play in the DE slot? A good run stopper and pass rusher with negligible cover skills?

DEs don't drop into coverage.

all -

If you are looking to get McNair into the game, why not play him at WLB?

So is the Assistant Scout (when not drinking Tequila).

BTW - it doesn't look like there are that many good OLB's out there, and I would think if they're too old a position change probably would do more harm than good.

What do we want with our top pick, anyway? If we think we can get a 2nd level DE outside of the first round and have no other huge needs, maybe we swap it for a couple of lower level picks, save a little money, and roll the dice with DE/OLB draftees.

And if LB's can play out of position at DE with little dropoff in performance, it seems like we shouldn't even bother with DE's. We should simply draft LB's and play them at DE. It gives us depth at OLB, ILB, and DE. This is especially true if DE's tend to be more expensive than LB's.

Hmm...I wonder if SLB Derek Covington could make a switch - 6-2, 264 out of Rice. Aquarius, Well liked by fans. PR Strength of 98 and 71 as a hitter. Or just keep him at LB :)

Dola - Rice must have had a good defense, because RDT Harold Emerson - 96 PRS, 6-2 306 - and DE Leonard Valdes also caught my eye....

I think this is a really good idea. In the 3-4 the DL is mostly responsible for stuffing the run which Peters and Littlejohn both do well. This also gets 4 athletic linebackers on the field to blitz or cover.

On the other side of the coin by playing an OLB at DE like last year you were still getting 4 linebackers on the field and the sack totals showed that was a good thing.

I think the current roster is a bit more suited to the 3-4 but it is hard to change a good thing and the defense played very well last year. I think it has the potential to play better this year though if aligned in the 3-4.

If that move does happen I would recommend putting the DT on the strong side of the formation(left in FOF I think) and the true DE on the weak side as more of a pass rushing position.

Or you could look for situational matchups, depending on what the opponent's offensive strengths are. They may run more to the right, or have a particularly weak pass blocking tackle on one side, etc.

Fritz,

When Sparks was playing last year what adjustments did you make to the gameplan to get Rubble and Wylie on the field? Both players were very effective last year and Wylie is only going to get better. Without the 2TE set I think it is going to be hard to use both(either?) of them effectively.

Like Quicksand's affinity for McNair I really like Wylie. Maybe I am the only one but he was the first pick last year and played well and I think he needs to be on the field.

Hutchens was the QB for almost all of the season, and we were in a 61% running mode much of it. This means fair use of 2TE. While Kolowski and Diana are the Starters, Wylie and Wayne and Rubble were in on the 2 TE set. Rubble sees action as the pass back as well.

Not sure how I will do it this season with Sparks as the starter. Rubble and Wylie can expect to see a lot play time.



In my solo games I pay a great deal of attention to the FB, TE, and S. These guys often drop in the draft and become my core. If our RB situation were not so stong, you can be sure that Rubble would be rushing the ball about 120-150 times for about 600 yards.

Yes, I did notice WR Pritchett's injury. It was part of what initially attracted me to him, though the short duration lessend that attraction. I was trying to be "on the level" in pointing him out, despite the fact that my true motivations are more sinister.

I'm having trouble finding a free agent who will satisfy my principal objective... but will keep looking. Maybe WR Deion Shepherd might be a better option? He has been pretty productive in recent years (averages 1,000 yards a season the last four years), and is only looking for around $2.4/yr. I'm not absolutely certain, but I think he might be a good addition in the original vein.

On furtyer review, maybe the best guy to target would be WR Lionel Booker. He had a breakout season with Ypsilanti last season after being their 3rd receiver for years - be busted out with 1,300 yards receiving and an invitation to the all pro team. A 7th year player right in his prime, he's only seeking about $2.5m/yr... not very steep at all.

This could be the guy for the job.

Fritz, I searched in vain for your discussion of QB formation knowledge from last season... but i recall you lamenting that SParks had lost command of a certain 2TE formation.

On his current list of 14, I see: Pro TE Pairs, Weak TE Pairs, Strong TE pairs, and Goal-Line 3TE.

Are any of these the formation that you would have been seeking to use much?

Here is some thinking about how we might occupy the remaining amount of cap space that we have available. We’ve got 22 spots, less 7 for the expected draft is 15—and $51 million to spend on those spots. Let’s see how much we have occupied so far:

We expect to get our three positional leaders—TE Diana, FB Kowalski, and T Johns. I’ll plug in $12 million for those three, though it certainly could end up being more. That bumps us down to $39m left for 12 spots.

I’m sensing from the DC that we’d like to re-sign at least one of our veteran LBs, Shon or Mills. For now, I’ll plug in one slot at $3.5 million for one of these guys, whomever we end up getting. So, $35.5M/11 spots.

We’ve had some discussions about OL, and I have offers in for two new players there—C Drake and T Huntley. Those two cost us $3.7m this year, bringing us down to about $32M/9 spots. Add in a new deal for G Hausrman, our current starter at LG, and we're down to about 30M/8 spots.

We’ve also discussed QB, and seem to have a plan here, too. We’ll pursue QBs Sparks and Francis, which should probably occupy around $6.2m… so we will knock our remaining cap space down to $24M/6 spots.

That, as nearly as I can tell, is what we have basically agreed to do. That leaves us without a single quality defensive end on the team, though we have discussed the possibility of using one or more OLB in that role. I’m just thinking that this can help refine our discussions… this might be more money on hand that we’re thinking we have available.

There might well be enough money on hand to invest in a big time player at a need position.

Something that might be reasonable to consider and still within our rules might be a one year offer to a free agent DE. I'm pretty impressed with Manning, and there are a few others who might make sense. Perhaps we could consider a sizable one year deal to one of them (around $5m salary and $5m bonus, for instance) as a strategy to make a needed improvement for this season, without adding to our potential problems for next year?

Just a thought. DE Sinclair is certainly a possibility as well, and at $4-5m/yr is much more affordable.

DT Brian Levine is a pretty cheap DT (asking only $1.35m/yr) who has some deceent pass-rushing skills. Might be a guy we coudl use in a DE rotation, and who couuld help in the DT spot against the pass, too.

What is your objective? an old guy on a short sweetheart deal that will usurp Diana as the leader?

It was his loss of I TE Pairs. No biggie I guess. He is certainly versitle enough.

No chance for one of those other QBs to round out the set is there? I would to like get Francis under contract, but not ask much from him this season.

Alas, further study of Booker have rendered him an inappropriate target on chemistry grounds. Oh, it was such a good plan, too.

Yes.

I don't know if anyone has mentioned him, but if Fritz is looking for some depth on the OL, we might want to take a look at RG Jerry Johnson. He is a 6 year veteran who has been used primarily as a backup. He looks like he has pretty good potential. He is only asking for about $2 mil a year for 2 years. Oh, and did I mention he would have an affinity with Leader Johns?

A cheaper alternative at DE might be Brad Rosa. He is certainly not as good as Manning, but might be a good "budget" alternative. He would be chemistry neutral.

At SE Everett Thomas might also be a good fit. Primarily a backup in his first few years, he started 12 games last year. He caught 43 of 62 passes for 632 yards, and 6 TD's. He had only 4 drops. He's asking for a 3 year deal, a $2 mill bonus for a total of $8.1 million. I'll check on his chemistry. {EDIT: He is an Aries and chemistry neutral with Diana}

Speaking of this, I happened to sort the FA's by leadership, and noticed that there is a TE by the name of Al Aska. Not a spectacular player (though better than Diana)...but Al Aska? :) (he's a Leo...I haven't checked compatability).

edit: Leos are incompatible with Capricorns, which Sanderson is. So that would be out I guess. Damn.

Still on the matter of TE's, assuming we want to dump Diana....the second rated TE in the draft (30/60), Kelly Spears, is a Virgo with a very strong personality (90) and a leadership of 85. Other points that stand out are run blocking (35/94), 3rd down catching (81/94) and route running (34/71). No big-play receiving. Might make a good possession TE. Of course, I guess we don't need another one of those drafted too highly with Wylie, so nevermind :)

Another guy I saw who wanted a 1 year contract but had high leadership (78) was Rich Sweeney. No blocking skills, poor route running, but good courage, gets downfield and VG on third down. Capricorn.

While I have no problem with making moves trying to change the leadership roles, let's recall - especially with marginal players, the position leaders are basically starters for life. If we want to draft someone or otherwise pick up a young player with an eye on him becoming the leader - we need to make peace with the notion that he will keep getting contract offers from us, and will keep getting to start, period.

Right now, as frustrating as it might be to have Diana and Kowalski in leadership roles, be thankful that they are (1) relatively less important roles than they could be, and (2) pretty old players, who will eventually shed on their own.

I'd hate to see us get to focused on shedding a guy like Diana that we commit to ten more years with a marginal talent starting for us at split end, who would eventually start getting paid even more than our old crummy TE.

Diana and Kowalski have done okay. no need to move them along. We don't ask much and they give what we ask.