Can't Misses....That Miss
 

Referring to prospects in baseball that all the "experts" claim is a can't miss, a guranteed star. For whatever reason today as I was watching the Met game, Alex Escobar came to my mind. I remember a few years ago this guy was considered a stud in the Mets farm system, a surefire All-Star. Sure it could have been the NY hype, but he was considered by many to be one of the best. I remember that the Mets wouldn't trade this guy he was untouchable. If I remember correctly that it was during their 99-2000 playoff runs that they could have gotten top notch talent in return for him but they wouldn't do it. Made me wonder about the what ifs had they gotten the talent they could have, would they have made the Series in '99 or beat the Yanks in 2000. Anyone else remember any type of situation when their team wouldn't let go of a can't miss kind of guy that for whatever reasons just missed??

Phil Plantier

Todd Van Poppel.

Still have that Gold Leaf Rookie Card, too. Bastard.

Joe Charboneau

Ben McDonald

Who was that HS pitcher the Yankees drafted and gave the huge signing bonus?

Ruben Mateo

Which one?

Sadly:(

Brien Taylor?

Corey Patterson is the latest one from the Cubs franchise.

Rick Ankiel from the Cards is another recent one.

Brad Komminsk.

That is him.

Those Mets - Pulsipher...good Lord, can't remember the rest. But they had 4 guys one year who were all supposed to be the next 20 game winners.

Karim Garcia was a cant miss kid. Edwin Jackson looks to be in that boat

These two battled addictions and are likely candidates for this thread:

Josh Hamilton
Jeff Allison (on again, off again- will he pan out?)

Does Marty Janzen qualify?

Phil "Suck Puppy" Nevin, but maybe I'm biased because he sucked balls for the Astros, who selected him first overall.

Felix Jose... or am I thinking of Junior Felix... or Junior Noboa?

No, no, I'm just kidding, really.

For some reason that sequence makes me think of MATT STAIRS.

Pulsipher, Izzy and Paul Wilson aka Generation K. Yeah Right. Well Izzy has done well for himself and Wilson I guess has too but has never lived up to the hype, Pulsipher on the otherhand is a different story.

The thing that really got me going on this whole thing was not so much the fact that he was a bust, thats always gonna happen, but the fact that they could have gotten something for him during their playoff years but never pulled the trigger. Ended up being the wrong move when you look back on it.

Brewers...Billy Jo Robidoux

Wasn't Izzy one of those?

SI

Regarding the young pitchers the Mets had, they all got hurt! That's what did them in. Wilson used to throw as hard as anyone out there... people told stories about his velocity, but he hurt his arm and never had that speed on his fastball again. Izzy got hurt as well, and ended up going to the bullpen in Oakland, which revived his career. Pulse also, IIRC, got hurt.

I think if they came up today, they'd fare much better, as the early-mid 90s, you still had managers in the minors and majors who thought they could work a pitcher's arm until it fell off and it was good for them!

The Titanic

-Anxiety

Any Mariners pitching prospect not named King Felix.

Well we know about Felix yet... after all, arm injuries have done in plenty of other uber-prospects.

Thank Dallas the "arm shredder" Green for that one. This is the dumbass that ran Scott Rolen out of Philly as well.

Who was supposed to be the next Randy Johnson? Was it Anderson something??

Ryan Anderson?

Empire Maker

Adrian Beltre.

Dude's getting paid 10 figures on the basis of playing out of his mind for one six month period.

I don't know if I'd call him a "miss," but he hasn't exactly set the world on fire in Seattle since that 2004 season.

Ryan Anderson. Pretty much lived up to the hype, but injuries ended his chances.

Ryan Anderson, thats the one. Whatever happened to him, he can't be that old to have no potential at all left, can he?

Bill Buckner and that ground ball...

HAHA, very clever. Although I was only 2 at the time, that groundball was the greatest thing that ever happened.

Scott Norwood

(what do they call it when you take perverse pleasure in the misery of others? I think maybe I'll just start another thread with that as the title...)

Tony Mandarich

Don't a lot of people believe that more pitchers get injured nowadays because they are pitching too little? I know that Nolan Ryan does.

Brian Bosworth

FBPro 99

Franklinnoble

It was only a matter of time...

Tyson v. Douglas

Schadenfreude

Mark Prior

Pat Combs

Eric Lindros. :D

Neon_Chaos' penis the first time he tried to use it ;)

Yankees Nick Johnson.

I think the Yankess claimed Johnson would be the next Babe Ruth after batting over .500 in the minors.

Hey, I know Johnson now toils in obscurity for the Nats, but injuries and Joe Torre's refusal to play him over inferior options derailed some of his playing time with the Yanks. Regardless, in 2003 he hit approx .280/420/475 and last year .290/.410/.480 in an extreme pitcher's park. He's 27 years old. I don't think he can be called a miss by any criteria. Ridiculous hypebole shouldn't be the sole basis of determining a player's career. Robinson Cano won't have Rod Carew's carrer, but that wouldn't make him a miss even though Joe Torre and others compared the two last year.

Kwame Brown :(

Ryan Leaf

I remember when the Jays were convinced that Eddy Zosky would be their next great middle infielder.

Luis Medina.

Orestes Destrade.

Bud Smith.

Dwight Gooden.

Thanks for that punch in the balls, st.c.

I can't tell you how many Phil Plantier rookier cards I collected. And yes, I still have them all.

I would agree tha Nick Johnson wasn't a miss. Sure he didn't live up to all the hype, but I would say he turned in to a pretty decent ball player. At least he is still in baseball making some contributions. Also with Prior, he's a stud, just can't stay healthy.



Football is just too easy.

I don't think you can call a guy who won nearly 200 games with .634 winning percentage a "miss." Incidentally, Gooden was another one of those arm-slagging casualties-- contrary to the common notion that it was the nose candy and New York nightlife that got him.

He's in the career top 50 in Winning percentage, Strikeouts, and Strikeouts/9 innings. I think any team would sign for that from their top pitching prospect with the blood of the GM's firstborn.

It's looking very much like Rocco Baldelli wil end up being one.

Jeffrey Hammonds was one.

Drew Henson was really a big one (two sports).

This is the same Nick Johnson that only once in his entire MLB career has he managed to get over 100 hits, and He has never hit 20 homeruns ever.


If you read the Yankee press release you would of thought Johnson already had his spot in Cooperstown. Instead he is just a very below average first baseman.

Len Bias (actually I don't think he fits)

Eric Lindros

No, he isn't. Nick Johnson has a career OPS+ of 120, and a career OBP of .383. His health is certainly an issue, but going forward, he's easily one of the top 10 1b in baseball.

Kerry Wood
Mark Prior
Corey Patterson
Hee Seop Choi
Bobby Brownlie
Ben Christensen
[insert Cubs prospect here]

Jesse Foppert

vanderjagt lol

Grr.... Foppert/Ainsworth/Williams - I'll never forgive Sabean for the Williams deal.

Sixto Castro

Comedy Scotty Thurman option

Guys, the very fact that he is involved in a debate over how good a MAJOR LEAGUE PLAYER he is means he is completely out of place in a discussion of prospects who miss on the Brien Taylor/Todd Van Poppel scale.

Yeah read any insider publication from the early 2000's and they woud tell you that Jesse Foppert and Jake Peavy were supposed to be battling over Cy Youngs for the next ten years. I don't know what happened to Foppert. Does he even play up in Seattle or did he hurt his arm again?

Star Wars: Episode One

Sticking to the original discussion of baseball-only . . .

Van Poppel should not be discussed without his fellow "Four Aces".

Does Ben McDonald count? He did have almost 200 starts and ended with a .500+ winning percentage. He didn't live up to the pre-draft hype but was not a complete flop.

Did anyone else remember Kevin Maas, the swing that was tailor-made for Yankees Stadium and that half season?

When the Phillies saw the numbers for and sent their scout to see a High School outfielder Jeff Jackson, they thought he was so darn good, they picked him 4th overall and passed on some first baseman/tight end from Auburn who would have filled their need (at the time) quite well, I thought.

There was an outfielder with the Reds during the 80s who used to regularly break bats on his back on the swing through (yikes). Incredible athlete who never seemed to have been able to put the baseball part together. Would he count?

Mark Merchant was supposedly good enough that he made the Mariners think twice about drafting Junior.

Thanks to the Dodgers' idiotic meddling way, they ruined Darren Dreifort's arm. (They fucked with his motion and delivery and forced Dreifort, a natural sinker/slider pitcher, to abandon his slider and throw a curveball instead. Fuckheads.)

Kiki Jones.

Another one that I'm not sure belongs in this group would be Jose Offerman. He eventually became a servicable major leaguer who even had multiple solid years. But he was suppose to have been a superstar.

One of the best College players I've ever seen.

I saw him play several games in a NCAA regional in Fresno, back in the mid eighties. He was pretty amazing at the plate. Before Notre Dame came to town a local scout summed him up by saying "If you've got a two run lead, and he comes up with the bases loaded....Walk Him."

He was HUGE in that regional. Honestly I haven't been more impressed with very many college players.

He did pretty much just evaporate when he went pro though.

Alexander Daigle.

As far as Alex Escobar goes, the Mets could have gotten Barry Larkin for him at the trade deadline in 2000, but they would have had to give Larkin a 3 year contract extension. They did end up getting Roberto Alomar for him, but that is a story for another day.

Very nice. This is the one that's left the biggest impression on me. What a joke that guy turned out to be. I mean, I guess he eventually matured and is trying to get a regular spot in the NHL again, but he was such a waste of talent. Maybe he's got a few more years left in him, but he'll never be close to all that potential. Huge waste.

Very true, I ended up looking more in to who they got for him. I could have sworn he was involved in the Griffey talks, but now that I think of it that was more Alfonzo and some others. I actually really brought this up because other than thinking of Escobar, Lastings Milledge came to mind. Watching him play I am actually a believer in this guy, but the way everyone talks about him reminded me of Escobar and how similar it is. Milledge is their "untouchable", as of right now anyway. If i remember correctly, he is one of the possible reasons Manny isn't in Queens right now.

I agree that Milledge is getting hyped up, but there was no way in hell I wanted Manny Ramirez. We'll see what happens tho.

He was a six time all-star and won an MVP trophy. He didn't live up to all the hype, but I wouldn't say he was a Van Poppel level miss. The trade that sent him to the Flyers may be the most-lopsided trade in history though, since just Forsberg was better, then add in the 5 other players, the two first round picks, and $15 million.

There are a number of first round pitchers that the Reds have shredded over the past ten years. It seemed like every year during the nineties we'd get a pitcher that would finally be our ace and every year they'd get hurt. I can't recall when the farm system last produced a decent starter.

Hershel Walker? Or are you talking about Hockey trades only?

Oh. A far more obscure but still quite lopsided trade would be Celtics trading away the pick for J.B. Carroll and ending up with Kevin McHale and Robert Parrish.

----

Jose Rijo would be the last "good" Reds starter I can think of. But I'm not local to them.

IIRC we got Rijo from the Yankees system in exchange for Paul O'Neill.

Nope. You got Roberto Kelly for Paul O'Neill. Rijo was with the Reds well before that. And you got him from Oakland. According to baseballreference.com:

December 8, 1987: Traded by the Oakland Athletics with Tim Birtsas to the Cincinnati Reds for Dave Parker.

I think the Lindros trade was worse. Even if you factor in who the Cowboys used the draft picks on (Smith, Woodson, among others), because the Avs used what they got in the Lindros deal to get Blake, Roy, and Bourque besides getting Forsberg outright. Plus $15 million.

grrrrr

The Colts in Super Bowl III

Aah yes, the immortal Bird's Ass. Anyway, it still proves that Rijo came up mostly through someone else's farm system.

Never came all the way back from TJ surgery for whatever reason.

Apparently he's had other injury problems and lost a few MPH off his fastball.

http://minorleagueball.com/story/2005/11/10/14217/792

He was released by the M's last year - I think he hooked up with the Brewers in their minor-league system.

Anderson had a labrum tear, the worst possible arm injury for a pitcher. Torn elbow ligaments are no longer a big deal with Tommy John surgery, and guys are recovering from torn rotator cuffs, but torn labrums are as good as a kiss of death. Very few pitchers are effective enough after this injury to reach the majors, and almost none are as good as they were before. Check out this article by Will Carroll explaining the details: Will Carroll on torn labrums

Foppert's biggest issue is his lack of command - he's walking too many guys. He's with the M's AAA team in Tacoma.

Rick Asadoorian!

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/playe...adoorian.shtml

I love the baseball cube!

Oh yeah? Which 10? I can name more then that better then him.

FYI they have a list of 1st Draft Picks with links to their stats on baseball cube

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/draft/index.shtml

Hmmm, let's see...

First basemen I'd rate as better than Nick Johnson:

Lance Berkman
Carlos Delgado
Jason Giambi
Todd Helton
Derrek Lee
Albert Pujols
Richie Sexson
Mark Teixeira

Guys I'd consider more or less equal with Nick Johnson:

Paul Konerko
Lyle Overbay
Mike Sweeney

I'm sure I'm overlooking someone, but I also think it's a reasonable statement to say that Nick Johnson is among the 10 best first basemen in the majors.

Bobby Hill
Jerome Walton
Kyle Farnsworth
Juan Cruz

I'm waiting for him to stay healthy before I can say he's better then anyone.

Greg Smith
Brooks Keishnick

The list goes on and on. But I don't think Wood or Prior deserve to be on the list, it's one thing to be a missed can't miss and it's another to be pretty dominate, make it to the show, and have injury issues

I agree that Johnson has turned out to be a pretty decent ballplayer and not a bust, but you really think he is equal to Konerko??

Also, General Mike, I too didn't want Manny only for the fact that I am a big believer in Milledge who very well can be the next Manny. The future with Beltran, Wright, Reyes and a hopefully awesome Milledge would be nice. However, this comes back to my original point, being that the Mets decided not to include Milledge in the trade and didn't make it, will it come back to bite them in the ass.

I rate Sweeney lower because of his likely health and age related decline. Ryan Howard could fit anywhere on the list based on your assessment of him (which is still fairly speculative for anyone). Overbay is also likely in the decline stage and I think Nick is better than him. I assume Dunn is no longer considered a 1B despite his poor attempt to play LF. What about Thome? Is he a DH like Ortiz or still an inbetween hybrid type? I think Giambi is also a big question mark - I might slide him down to the next tier, but I might not. With all those caveats and questions, I would generally agree that saying Nick is a top 10 1B is pretty reasonable. It's close, but reasonable.

They will be on the list until they put together 2 seasons in a row sans-injury and perform at a pretty high level.

One season of excellent play does not remove you from the Bust List, in my view (see Jerome Walton, Corey Patterson).

If you guys want to go back on hyped Cubs prospects, Ty Griffin is the one that I remember the most post-Dunston and pre-Wood/Patterson/Prior. I don't think he ever saw the bigs ...